Raiders

Oakland Raiders 2013 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Raiders, Uncategorized

Introduction

Last off-season, I had the Raiders as one of the worst teams in the NFL going into 2012, as so many years of poor roster management by Al Davis and the previous regime left new GM Reggie McKenzie pretty powerless in his first off-season with the team, in terms of cap flexibility and draft picks. Hue Jackson’s trade for Carson Palmer left them without a 1st round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, while Al Davis traded away their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks in other trades, leaving the new regime with very scarce resources to add talent through the draft. They also didn’t have a 1st round pick in 2011, thanks to a not quite as bad, but still shortsighted trade for Richard Seymour.

Al Davis’ various moves also left them in a very bad cap situation. This left the Raiders unable to sign any significant free agents or re-sign any of their own like Michael Bush. This also forced them to have to cut some players just to get under the cap including Kevin Boss, Stanford Routt, and Kamerion Wimbley. The latter was their best defensive player in 2011 and they actually paid him 6.5 million dollars to play for the Titans last season, rather than having to pay him 13 million to stay.

Well, this off-season they didn’t have much more flexibility. They had their draft picks this time around, for the most part. However, they also have roughly 50 million in dead money on their books, largely from previous regime moves, which essentially left the Raiders able to operate with 40-50 million dollars less than the average NFL team could. They lost several key contributors this off-season because of their cap situation.

Desmond Bryant was arguably their best defensive player. Philip Wheeler had a great season as a 3-down linebacker. Rolando McClain and Richard Seymour, for different reasons, were unable to play full seasons on the defensive side of the ball last season, but both played well when on the field. They’re gone. Starting defensive back Michael Huff is gone. On the offensive side of the ball, they lost their leading receiver Brandon Myers, as well as starting receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. With very little financial flexibility, they couldn’t sign big free agents to replace these guys.

On the defensive side of the ball alone, the Raiders have 9 new starters from last season, the vast majority of whom were signed to cheap, short term deals this off-season. They made some nice, cheap signings, but it’s really hard to bring in talent working with that kind of budget.  On top of that, they have just 3 of their former 1st round picks on their roster, cornerback DJ Hayden, drafted this past April, running back Darren McFadden, an injury prone back on a short leash in his contract year, and kicker Sebastian Janikowski, who is, well, a kicker. This is as close to a replacement level roster as you can get.

They actually exceeded my expectations last season by winning 4 games, but they could be even worse this season. This is arguably the least talented roster in the NFL and it’s perfectly understandable why. Fortunately, they will have a lot more financial freedom next off-season so the new regime (assuming Al Davis’ son hasn’t fired them by then) will finally be able to work in a set of circumstances where it’s fair to evaluate them. On top of that, they could have another very high draft pick next season. Jadeveon Clowney, one of the top defensive prospects in the last 20 years, could be part of the light at the end of the tunnel for this franchise, which is an NFL worst 49-111 since 2003, the year after their improbable Super Bowl appearance.

Quarterback

In addition to all of the roster turnover on defense for the Raiders this off-season, they also have a new starting quarterback. After sending overpaid, declining veteran Carson Palmer to the Cardinals for a late round pick (enduring a cap hit in the process), the Raiders sent a late round pick to the Seahawks for Matt Flynn. Flynn will face a little bit of competition in Training Camp, but I would be shocked if he didn’t at least start the season at quarterback and probably make most of the starts.

Fourth round rookie Tyler Wilson has not gotten off to a good start in Training Camp, while the new regime doesn’t think very highly of Terrelle Pryor, keeping him behind Matt Leinart on the depth chart for most of last season. He didn’t impress in his one start week 17 and Al Davis drafted him 3 rounds before anyone else would have, taking him in the 3rd round of the 2011 supplemental draft because of his height/weight/speed. The quintessential Davis pick was the late owner’s final.

Flynn probably won’t impress as a starter, however. He has just 141 career attempts in 5 seasons, though his numbers look good, completing 61.7% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Green Bay’s supporting cast undoubtedly helped him put up those numbers and it’s too small of a sample size to say that the league was really wrong letting him fall to the 7th round of the 2008 NFL Draft. On tape, he does a few nice things, but is physically limited in terms of arm strength and profiles largely the same he did coming out of LSU, as a career backup, though perhaps an above average one. Going into his age 28 season, he is what he is at this point in his career.

Flynn had a shot to start last season in Seattle, after signing a 3-year, 19 million dollar contract with 10 million guaranteed thanks to his flashes with the Packers. However, he couldn’t hold off a 3rd round rookie for the starting job, despite his large salary, because of a poor Training Camp and pre-season. Of course we know now that 3rd round rookie is Russell Wilson, but hindsight is 20-20 and while the Seahawks clearly saw something in him more than the other teams in the NFL, I don’t think they knew he’d be this good this fast.

The point remains, Flynn lost his job to a 3rd round rookie based purely off said rookie’s strong Training Camp and pre-season. On top of that, he was passed on in free agency by former Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin and the Miami Dolphins, who reportedly didn’t see him as a franchise quarterback. If anything, Flynn is a decent stopgap at quarterback for the Raiders and nothing else.

Grade: C

Running Backs

At running back, Darren McFadden returns, at least for now. His supporters are always making excuses for him. Last year it was that he didn’t fit the blocking scheme (does that explain why he averaged just 1.9 yards per carry after contact, 3rd worst in the NFL, and broke just 16 tackles on 216 carries?) However, the fact remains that we’re entering year 6 of Darren McFadden in NFL and he’s never had more than 223 carries in a season, he averages just 4.3 yards per carry for his career, he’s coming off of a season in which he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and he’s played just 57 of 80 possible games, maxing out with 13 games played in a season.

He obviously had plenty of natural talent coming out of Arkansas in 2008, when he was the consensus #1 back on the board and drafted 4th overall. However, it’s very possible that all of his injuries have taken a toll on him and sapped his explosiveness. It certainly looked that way last season when, in addition to averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, he graded out as by far ProFootballFocus’ worst rated running back, both overall and in terms of pure run grade, on tape. He also hurt his team as a receiver, managing a mere 6.1 yards per catch and dropping 8 passes, 2nd worst at his position. He also had the 6th worst blocking grade at his position, allowing 2 sacks, 4 hits, and 3 hurries by himself, on just 84 pass block snaps. He might never be the same player again, even when he’s on the field.

He’s going into his contract year and the regime that drafted him is gone. I find it very unlikely he’ll get a 2nd contract from the Raiders and might not get much on a 2nd contract anywhere. Good running backs have enough trouble getting 2nd contracts in today’s NFL. McFadden will be going into his age 27 season next off-season. No one is going to pay a lot of money for an aging running back who was already unreliable when he was younger.

The Raiders brought in Rashad Jennings from Jacksonville to be McFadden’s primary backup, a role that perennially sees a lot of action. However, Jennings averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on 101 carries last year, in place of an injured Maurice Jones-Drew, before going down with an injury of his own, landing on injured reserve with shoulder and concussion problems.

He did average 5.4 yards per carry in his first 2 years in the league in 2009 and 2010, after going in the 7th round in 2008, but a serious knee injury that cost him all of 2011 really seems to have put a damper on his career. He’s an injury prone player going into his age 28 season with marginal, at best, talent. The Jaguars thought so little of him that they put him on injured reserve in 2011, even though he could have played by week 5. The Raiders could easily regret not bulking up this position more.

Other options include Jeremy Stewart and Marcel Reece, who saw action in McFadden’s absence last season. Stewart, an undrafted rookie, didn’t really impress, rushing for just 101 yards on 25 carries. Reece was better as the do everything fullback showed he could move to running back in a pinch, rushing for 271 yards on 59 carries, but 6-1 255 pounder showed himself to be largely a plodder, as you could expect, maxing out with a 17 yard carry. As a fullback, he’s a great blocker and a talented receiver with 104 catches over the last 3 seasons, including 52 last season. That’s his best role. Latavius Murray, a 6th round rookie, could also see action at running back.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The excuse of the Raiders’ blocking does have some merit for McFadden. He probably would not have produced much either way, but they did do a terrible job of run blocking, grading out 3rd worst in that aspect on ProFootballFocus. They switched to a zone blocking scheme last season and it was very poorly executed by offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. That has been thrown in the garbage this season, in favor of a more traditional blocking scheme, and Knapp has been rightfully fired. It should help things somewhat on the offensive line, but it won’t fix the problem.

Mike Brisiel was brought over from Houston on 5-year, 20 million dollar deal to help with their transition to the zone blocking scheme. After all, he did grade out as an above average starter in that scheme with the Texans. However, he struggled mightily in Oakland’s poorly executed version, grading out 74th out of 81 eligible at his position. Now the zone blocking scheme is gone entirely and Brisiel is stuck in a power blocking scheme that he doesn’t fit at all. The Raiders restructured his contract to give them cap relief and keep him with the team, but he could face competition from 2012 undrafted free agent Lucas Nix. Opposite him, the Raiders will start Tony Bergstrom, a 2012 3rd round pick who graded out below average on 113 snaps as a rookie.

Things aren’t much better at right tackle. Starter Khalif Barnes missed 7 games with injury last season and in his absence Willie Smith was horrific, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 6th worst ranked offensive tackle despite such limited action. Barnes himself wasn’t much better, grading out 64th at the position in his limited action. The lead-footed 6-6 315 pounder was an awful fit for the blocking scheme, but even in a power blocking scheme he graded out well below average in 2011 with the Raiders, after coming over from Jacksonville, where he was not a starter. He’ll be pushed by 2nd round rookie Menelik Watson, an athletic, but very raw offensive tackle who I think will go the way of Bruce Campbell. He’s also yet to practice in Training Camp for a mysterious reason.

The bright spots on the offensive line are left tackle Jared Veldheer and center Stefen Wisniewski. Veldheer improved on a strong 2011 in which he ranked 17th at his position by grading out 12th at his position in 2012. The 2010 3rd round pick is going into a contract year this season and could be even better. He’s by far the Raiders’ best player and one of the last things Al Davis got right. Wisniewski, meanwhile, struggled as a 2nd round rookie in 2011, playing through injury and playing out of position, but he was much better in 2012, healthy and playing in his natural spot at center, where he graded out above average and ranked 17th at his position this past season. He too could be even better this season.

Grade: C+

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

As I mentioned, the Raiders lost leading receiver Brandon Myers, a tight end, and starting wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey this off-season, without really replacing either. With them gone, it’ll be up to 3rd year receiver Denarius Moore, who was 2nd on the team with 51 catches for 741 yards and 7 touchdowns. Moore had a very promising rookie year, catching 33 passes for 618 yards and 5 touchdowns on just 357 pass snaps.

However, he struggled to live up to expectations in 2012, recording just 714 yards on 520 pass snaps, catching just 46.4% of his targets, and dropping 9 passes, giving him one of the worst drop rates at his position. He could breakout in his 3rd year in the league, when so many receivers break out, but his inconsistency dates back to his days at Tennessee, part of why he went in the 5th round, and his deep threat ability doesn’t make him that compatible with weaker armed Matt Flynn at quarterback.

Rod Streater, more of a possession receiver, figures to be the more compatible with Flynn among their starting receivers. The undrafted rookie showed what he could do down the stretch, catching 18 passes for 351 receiving yards and 1 touchdown in his final 5 games, after struggling to live up to the expectations of his strong pre-season early in the year. He might be their leading receiver this year.

After him on the depth chart, the Raiders have Jacoby Ford, a once promising receiver, who has managed to play in just 8 games of the last 2 seasons thanks to injury. He’s already hurt again in Training Camp. If/when he misses regular season snaps, #4 receiver Juron Criner would take his spot. The 2012 5th round pick played 169 snaps as a rookie.

Things are even worse at tight end. After Brandon Myers, no one played more than 99 snaps at tight end last season and Myers is gone. David Ausberry, a 2011 7th round pick who has played 142 snaps in his first 2 years in the league, catching 9 passes, will compete with fellow “veteran” Richard Gordon, a 6th round pick from that same draft who played 138 snaps in his first 2 years in the league, catching 3 passes. Rookies Mychal Rivera and Nick Kasa will also be in the mix, though they were just 6th round picks. It shows how desperate things are at the position. Overall, they lack talent throughout their offense and this is the stronger side of the ball.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the Raiders return just 2 starters from their 2012 defense. One of those players is defensive end LaMarr Houston. Like Jared Veldheer on the offensive side of the ball, Houston is a diamond in the rough on this team and probably their 2nd best player after Veldheer. The 2010 2nd round pick improved upon a 2011 season in which he ranked 19th at his position by ranking 9th at his position in 2012.

The 290 pounder is obviously better against the run than as a pass rusher, but he did grade above average as a pass rusher in 2012 with 5 sacks, 14 hits, and 35 hurries on 473 pass rush snaps, a 11.4% pass rush rate, along with grading out as ProFootballFocus’ #2 ranked 4-3 defensive end against the run. He’s also got the ability to move inside to defensive tackle on passing downs, something he could do more of this season considering their lack of depth at the position (more on that in a minute).

Both Houston and Veldheer are set to hit free agency next off-season and the Raiders should use some of their little remaining cap space to sign one to an extension. They’ll have to backload it, which they’ll be able to do because of all of their impending cap space, but they can’t allow either to leave with how little talent they have on their roster. They can franchise tag the other one.

The rest of the defensive line leaves something to be desired though, and that’s putting it lightly. Andre Carter and Jason Hunter will rotate with Houston at defensive end. Carter was great in 2011 with New England, grading out 11th at his position, but injuries led to him not being picked up until mid-season in 2012, when the Raiders snatched him up. He graded out just about average on 323 snaps as a part time player from week 6 on. Going into his age 34 season, his best days are behind him.

Jason Hunter, meanwhile, is a mediocre career backup coming off of a season in which he didn’t play a snap thanks to a torn triceps. He signed a 1 year deal for essentially the veteran’s minimum coming over from Denver. When last we saw him in 2011, he graded out below average on 371 snaps with the Broncos. He’s going into his age 30 season as well. 2012 5th round pick Jack Crawford could also see snaps after playing just 50 snaps as a rookie last season.

As I mentioned, they’re also thin at defensive tackle. The Raiders brought in another two players on one year deals at defensive tackle this off-season, Vance Walker and Pat Sims. Walker has the most upside of the two and could have a breakout year in what should be his biggest role yet. Walker was a 7th round pick out of Georgia Tech by the Atlanta Falcons in 2009 and he was immediately part of Atlanta’s defensive tackle rotation.

Walker continued to see his role expand on a yearly basis, increasing his snap total every year, leading up to a 2012 season in which he played in 539 regular season snaps and then another 59 in 2 games in the post-season. He started almost every game and while he wasn’t a full-time player, splitting snaps with Peria Jerry and Corey Peters, he was 2nd on the team in snaps played by defensive tackles behind Jonathan Babineaux.

In his expanded role, Walker had the best season of his career in 2012, ranking 17th among defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus. While his strength was playing the run, he did have 3 sacks, 1 hit, and 15 hurries on 326 pass rush snaps, a 6.7% pass rush rate. In Oakland, he’ll be surrounded by much less supporting talent, but he’ll also get his first chance to be a full-time player and he could really break out as one of the better defensive tackles in the league. He was well worth the risk on a 1 year, 2 million dollar contract.

Sims, meanwhile, is someone you know what you’re getting from. He’s a mediocre career backup and situational run stuffer who has played just 481 snaps in the last 2 seasons combined. There’s a reason why he had to settle for a 1 year, 1.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Christo Bilukidi will also be in the mix. He graded out below average on 249 snaps as a 6th round rookie last season. 6th round rookie Stacy McGee could also be in the mix. The Raiders will really miss Desmond Bryant, who graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 6th ranked defensive tackle last season, before signing a 5 year, 34 million dollar deal with the Browns this off-season.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Raiders will start an entirely new trio at linebacker this season. Miles Burris, ProFootballFocus’ worst rated 4-3 outside linebacker last season as a 4th round rookie, will be a reserve. The talented Rolando McClain was cut for character problems both off the field and on the practice field. Philip Wheeler, meanwhile, signed a 5-year 26 million dollar contract with the Dolphins this season, after grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 6th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker last season. He’ll be missed.

To replace Wheeler, the Raiders signed Kevin Burnett to a 1 year, 3 million dollar deal. Burnett was ironically cut by the Dolphins when they signed Wheeler this off-season. Even though he was replaced by him in Miami, Burnett actually graded out better than Wheeler did last season, ranking 4th at his position among 4-3 outside linebackers. However, the reason the Dolphins replaced him with Wheeler was that he is heading into his age 31 season this year and could be on the decline.

At middle linebacker, the Raiders brought in Kaluka Maiava from Cleveland. Maiava actually graded out 7th among 4-3 outside linebackers last season, despite playing just 498 snaps, but he’s been inconsistent in the past and he’s never been a full time starter. They’re taking a risk with him, especially trying to convert him to middle linebacker, but it could pay off. On a 3-year, 6 million dollar deal, it might be worth the risk.

Finally, at the 3rd linebacker spot, veteran Nick Roach comes over from Chicago. He’ll probably play a two-down base package role, like he did in Chicago, and come off the field on obvious passing downs for a 5th defensive back. He’s been largely an average player in that role for 2 seasons in Chicago. 3rd round rookie Sio Moore, meanwhile, could see a situational role and may also play some defensive end. The 6-1 245 pounder is a promising hybrid player for the future, but it’s unclear how much of a positive impact he can have as a rookie.

Grade: B-

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Safety

The other returning starter on defense, to go with defensive lineman LaMarr Houston, is safety Tyvon Branch. Branch has never been a great player, but he’s graded out above average in 3 of 4 seasons as a starter and he was signed to a 4-year, 26.6 million dollar deal last off-season after being franchised (it was restructured to a 6-year deal for cap purposes this off-season), so he’s an asset.

Branch will play opposite free agent acquisition Charles Woodson, who returns to Oakland from Green Bay. Woodson is a Raider legend (and a Packer legend) and a future Hall of Famer, but father time is undefeated. He turns 37 this season and already showed signs of decline last season in Green Bay, grading out roughly average in the regular season in 7 games (missing 9 with injury), before returning for the post-season and struggling mightily in two games. His days of being even an average starter are likely gone.

At cornerback, the Raiders have a trio of off-season acquisitions competing for two starting spots. DJ Hayden was their 1st round pick, 12th overall. He’s a talented cornerback, but a near deadly heart injury suffered late last season put his career in jeopardy. He’s been cleared medically to continue playing and doesn’t seem to be at risk of re-injury and the Raiders obviously think the world of him. If they had been unable to trade down from #3 overall, they would have just taken him there. He was the #3 player on their board after the top two tackles Joeckel and Fisher and filled a bigger need.

That isn’t a sentiment that the rest of the league shared though (why they were able to get him at #12) and some teams had him off the board entirely for medical reasons. He already underwent surgery for scar tissue this off-season and has yet to be cleared for contact. During OTAs earlier this off-season, he reportedly couldn’t stop vomiting. Time will tell if their bold evaluation of him was correct, but there’s no denying it was a very, very risky pick, probably the riskiest of the entire 1st round. It’s tough to count on rookies anyway.

He’ll compete with Mike Jenkins and Tracy Porter for a starting job and missing practice time isn’t helping matters. Fortunately for him (not the Raiders), those two veterans don’t represent much competition. Porter has been better in the past, but the 2009 season in which he graded out positively and scored the clinching touchdown of the Super Bowl on a pick-six seem long gone now.

He’s graded out below average in the last 3 seasons, having his worst year in 2011, when he graded out 91st out of 109 eligible cornerbacks. He’s also missed 31 of 80 games in his career and never played more than 14 (2011), including 10 games missed last year with seizures, rapid heartbeat, light headedness, and a concussion. The cause of his mysterious health problems has not been found. It’s obviously a risk. The 2008 2nd round pick may never be the same player again. There’s a reason why he had to settle for a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar contract from the Raiders this off-season.

Jenkins was also drafted in 2008, going in the first round, and he also had a strong 2009 season, when he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 13th ranked cornerback and made the Pro-Bowl. However, he also hasn’t been anywhere near as good since. He was ProFootballFocus’ 91st ranked cornerback out of 100 eligible in 2010 and though he graded out just about average in 2011, he still lost his starting job going into 2012.

In 2012, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 94th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible, despite playing just 374 snaps. Only 4 players played fewer snaps and graded out worse than he did. He’s also had work ethic issues in the past and issues with coaches. Like Porter, there’s a reason why he had to settle for a 1-year deal this off-season. He’ll make just 1.5 million. Jenkins and Porter are the type of players you get when you have to hit the bargain bin for starters, as are several others on this defense like Pat Sims and Jason Hunter.

The bright spot at cornerback for the Raiders is Joselio Hanson. He graded out above average as a slot specialist for the Raiders last season and will continue to serve in that role this year, though he’s probably not capable of playing outside at 5-9 170. He was also good on the slot in Philadelphia prior to signing with the Raiders last off-season. Overall though, this is one of the worst defenses in the league. They were 29th in the NFL allowing 27.7 points per game last season and they were on their way to being one of the worst scoring defenses in all time before they ran into the equally horrible Chiefs’ offense week 16 and shut them out. They could be the worst scoring defense in the NFL this season.

Grade: C

Head Coach

Dennis Allen came into this job last off-season incredibly inexperienced as far as Head Coaches go. He was Denver’s defensive coordinator for just 1 year (when they ranked just 24th defensively I might add) and before that he had just 3 years of experience as a head position coach, coaching the Saints’ secondary from 2008-2010. Before that, he was an assistant defensive line coach with the Saints for 2 years. In his first year on the job, he went 4-12. It was a tough situation to win many games in, but he didn’t do much to prove himself.

Grade: C

Overall

Along with Jacksonville, the Raiders have the least amount of talent in the NFL thanks to years of poor management. With roughly 50 million in dead money and only one first round pick from 2001-2012 still on their roster, it makes plenty of sense why they have such little talent. The Raiders did a solid job adding cheap talent on short term deals this off-season, but it won’t be enough. They’ll be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Only home games against San Diego, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Philadelphia appear winnable. I have them at 1-15 with the Jaguars as the worst team in the NFL.

Projection: 1-15 4th in AFC West

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Oakland Raiders Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Vance Walker

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Raiders, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Oakland Raiders, that player is defensive tackle Vance Walker.

The Oakland Raiders have arguably the least talented roster in the NFL. With roughly 40 million in dead money on their cap, they are essentially working under a significantly lower salary cap than the rest of the league. The rest of the league can spend around 120 million. The Raiders can spend 80 million. They also have a recent history of poor drafting. Only 2 players they’ve drafted in the first round are still on their roster and one of those is 2013 1st round pick DJ Hayden. They traded two first round picks for Richard Seymour and Carson Palmer, but neither of those two remains on their roster.

With minimal cap space this off-season, GM Reggie McKenzie had to dive into the bargain bin on several occasions to find players who could help his team avoid being a laughing stock and the Raiders got 9 new defensive starters from there, which should tell you a lot about what could easily be the league’s worst defense for the 2nd straight year in 2013. However, not all of these bargain bin pickups were mediocre. One of those players, defensive tackle Vance Walker, who the Raiders signed for 2 million over 1 year, has a real chance to break out in his first full-time job in the NFL.

Walker was a 7th round pick out of Georgia Tech by the Atlanta Falcons in 2009 and he was immediately part of Atlanta’s defensive tackle rotation. Walker continued to see his role expand on a yearly basis, increasing his snap total every year, leading up to a 2012 season in which he played in 539 regular season snaps and then another 59 in 2 games in the post-season. He started almost every game and while he wasn’t a full-time player, splitting snaps with Peria Jerry and Corey Peters, he was 2nd on the team in snaps played by defensive tackles behind Jonathan Babineaux.

In his expanded role, Walker had the best season of his career in 2012, ranking 16th among defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus. While his strength was playing the run, he did have 4 sacks, 1 hit, and 15 hurries on 326 pass rush snaps, a 6.1% pass rush rate. In Oakland, he’ll be surrounded by much less supporting talent, but he’ll also get his first chance to be a full-time player and he could really break out as one of the better defensive tackles in the league.

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Free Agents and Candidates for Release

stevenlourie Raiders

Top Free Agents

OLB Phillip Wheeler

Wheeler had a remarkable season considering where he was last season. After spending a few years as a nondescript two down run stuffer in Indianapolis, Wheeler signed with the Raiders for less than a million dollars last off-season and was a bright spot on an otherwise miserable defense. The former Colt played every down and was ProFootballFocus’ 6th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. He’s definitely earned himself some money, but it’s important to remember where he was last year and not give him too big of a pay increase percentage wise based on just one season.

DT Desmond Bryant

Here’s another bright spot from the Raiders’ defense. It sounds weird, but they could be even worse defensively next year if they can’t bring back guys like Wheeler and Bryant in free agency. Taking over for an injured Richard Seymour midway through the season, Bryant finished the year as ProFootballFocus’ 6th ranked defensive tackle. He excelled as a pass rusher and stopped the run alright as well. Like Wheeler, it’s important not to overpay him based on one year, but the Harvard product is not yet 28 (in December) and could be one of the real bargains of free agency this off-season at the right price.

P Shane Lechler

By his standards, Lechler struggled this year. He averaged 47.2 yards per punt, but only 39.5 net as only 24 of 81 were pinned inside the 20. He was ProFootballFocus’ 14th ranked punter this season. Still, if you look at his whole body of work, he’s one of the better punters in the NFL and, though punters don’t command a big salary, he should be paid among the best punters in the NFL.

DT Richard Seymour

Before he got hurt and Bryant took over, Seymour wasn’t playing too poorly himself. Despite very limited playing time thanks to an injury that ended his season week 9, Seymour ranked 12th among defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus. If healthy, he appears to still have something left in the tank and he has the versatility to play in both 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. The biggest issue is that he’ll be 33 in October and he’s coming off a major injury.

TE Brandon Myers

Another bright spot for the Raiders this season, Myers wasn’t thought of as much more than a blocker coming into the season and he ended up catching 79 passes for 806 yards and 4 touchdowns. Ironically, however, he was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated run blocking tight end this season. He’s not an explosive athlete and he only has one year of production, so he won’t command a large salary. Like Wheeler and Bryant, it’s important to remember to pay him not based off of just one season.

S Matt Giordano

Giordano was also a bright spot for the Raiders this season. Why are all of their bright spots free agents? The Raiders were able to move big money safety Michael Huff where he was needed most because Giordano had always been impressive as a 3rd safety behind Huff and Tyvon Branch. When given an opportunity to start, he didn’t disappoint, as he was a functional starting safety. However, the Raiders probably want to keep Huff at safety long term, so Giordano might have to go elsewhere in search of a starting job.

OT Khalif Barnes

Barnes was one of several Raiders who struggled with the switch to a zone blocking scheme this season. In the Raiders’ power blocking scheme in 2011, he graded out as an above average starter, but he struggled this year when he was on the field and also missed a significant amount of time with injuries. You can do worse than him as your starting right tackle in the right scheme and with the Raiders moving back to a power blocking scheme, they could opt to retain him as a starter, but they may also try to upgrade the position.

CB Joselio Hanson

Another bright spot for the Raiders who is a free agent, Hanson was a final cut of the Eagles in September, but the cap tight Raiders brought him in and made him their nickel back and he graded out above average. He’s limited mainly to the slot, but he’s one of the better slot specialist cornerbacks in the NFL and there’s always a need for a guy like that.

G Cooper Carlisle

Carlisle was actually alright as a starter for the Raiders this season as he was one of the few who actually improved in the new zone blocking scheme. However, at age 36 in August and with the Raiders going back to a power blocking scheme he struggled in back in 2011, he might be done with the Raiders and maybe done in the NFL entirely. At the very least, he shouldn’t get anything more than a cheap one year deal.

The Rest

QB Matt Leinart
RB Mike Goodson
FB Owen Schmitt
WR Derek Hagan
DE Matt Shaughnessy
DE Andre Carter
MLB Omar Gaither
CB Ronald Bartell
CB Shawntae Spencer
S Michael Mitchell

Candidates for release

DT Tommy Kelly

He was better down the stretch, but he still ended up as ProFootballFocus’ 74th ranked defensive tackle out of 85. Heading into his age 33 season in 2013, he’s not worth the 6.5 million he’s due and the cap strapped Raiders probably won’t bring him back. He should catch on somewhere else though on a short term contract.

WR Darius Heyward-Bey

Darius Heyward-Bey had a strong year in 2011, catching 64 passes for 975 yards, but those account for almost half of his production in his four year career. In the other 3 seasons, he’s caught a combined 76 passes for 1096 yards. It’s also a bad sign that he had that breakout year and then regressed this year, catching just 41 passes for 606 yards and doing so on 80 targets. Owed 7.721 million in 2013, he’s not expected to be back. The Raiders have financial issues and despite all their needs, they actually have solid receiving depth. Rod Streater can step into the starting lineup for him and Jacoby Ford and Juron Criner can provide solid depth. Someone else will snatch Heyward-Bey up, however.

MLB Rolando McClain

Like Darrius Heyward-Bey, McClain is a former top-10 pick of the Raiders who is expected to be gone this off-season. He’s been okay on the field, but he’s had off the field issues, including legal issues and issues with the coaching staff and the only reason he wasn’t cut mid-season was because of the cap hit the Raiders would have endured, according to GM Reggie McKenzie. Owed 4.005 million in 2013, he won’t be back. Like I said, he can play, but a lot of teams won’t give him a look because of the other stuff. Someone should sign him, however. He’s not even 24 until July.

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Oakland Raiders 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Raiders

For the first time in about 50 years, someone else other than Al Davis was making the personnel decisions for the Raiders last offseason, following Davis’ passing in October of 2011. However, the new front office didn’t have a lot to work with. Al Davis mortgaged the team’s future for two 8-8 seasons in 2010 and 2011. The new front office inherited a roster with mediocre talent, a team that entered the offseason already over the cap, and no draft picks before the 3rd round of compensatory picks.

You can’t blame the Raiders 4-12 season (their 10th straight non-winning season) on their new front office, but they certainly have their work cut out for them this offseason. They have needs all over the field, still lack a 2nd round pick thanks to the ridiculous Carson Palmer trade, and aren’t in the best position cap wise either.
The Raiders are 49-111 over the last 10 seasons since their Super Bowl appearance in February of 2003 and they have a roster that probably doesn’t have a single player who is among the top-5, maybe even the top-10, at his respective position (excluding special teams specialists). GM Reggie McKenzie comes from a great organization (Green Bay) and I believe he’s the right man for the job, but this isn’t going to be a 1 year fix.

Defensive End

The Raiders were definitely worse on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side of the ball, as they ranked 28th in the NFL, allowing 27.7 points per game. In fact, before shutting out the pathetic Chiefs, the Raiders had a near historically bad scoring defense. It starts up front for this team and they’ll probably take some sort of defensive lineman with the 3rd overall pick in a defensive lineman/edge rusher heavy draft. Defensive end Damontre Moore is a definitely possibility as the Raiders’ pass rush needs a lot of help.

They ranked 21st in the league in pass rush efficiency and Matt Shaughnessy was the biggest reason why. Lamarr Houston opposite him actually played very good football this season, especially down the stretch, but Shaughnessy managed just 15 total pressures on 368 pass rush snaps, good for a pathetic 4.1% pass rush rate. Only 3 players graded out as worse pass rushers at that position on ProFootballFocus than Shaughnessy and he only ranked as “high” up as 55th out of 62 eligible overall thanks to some solid play against the run. He’s a free agent anyway and should not be back as a starter.

Defensive Tackle

Star Lotulelei is the other option for the Raiders at 3, unless Jarvis Jones somehow falls. The Raiders ranked 20th against the run this season and all 3 of their top defensive tackles, Richard Seymour, Desmond Bryant, and Tommy Kelly might not be back next season. Seymour and Bryant are free agents, while Tommy Kelly is owed a non-guaranteed 6.5 million in 2013, his age 33 season, and isn’t worth even half of that. He was one of the worst defensive tackles in the league this year, ranking 74th among 85 eligible defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus.

Cornerback

Here’s what the new regime was working with: all of the cornerbacks who played a single snap for the Raiders in 2011 combined to play 13 snaps for them in 2012 (all by 2011 4th round pick Chimdi Chewka, who wasn’t on their week 1 roster). With no cap room, they were forced to bargain shop for two guys coming off injuries, Shawntae Spencer and Ronald Bartell, and that didn’t work out.

They barely played and it was up to a bunch of castoffs and youngsters to man the cornerback position. The group didn’t play well in general, en route to ranking 25th against the pass. They also converted talented safety Michael Huff to cornerback and while he played alright, he’s best served at safety long term. Phillip Adams and Brandian Ross showed some promise down the stretch in very limited action, but this is still a major need for them.

Offensive Tackle

Khalif Barnes and Willie Smith split starts 9 to 7 this season, but neither of them played well at all, allowing a combined 9 sacks, 15 hits, and 37 hurries, while committing 8 combined penalties. This is a spot that needs a new starter.

Guard

Mike Brisiel was their only big money signing last offseason and it didn’t work out. He was ProFootballFocus’ 74th ranked guard out of 81. The new regime better hope that his struggles were the result of the poorly executed zone blocking scheme put in place by recently fired offensive coordinator Greg Knapp and that better coaching will allow him to once again be a solid player because they’re kind of stuck with him for another year. On the left side, Cooper Carlisle is a free agent heading into his age 36 season this offseason. They do have Tony Bergstrom, a 2012 3rd round pick, in the mix. He struggled in very limited action this season, but may still be a future starter.

Quarterback

The Carson Palmer trade continues to be ridiculous. They won’t owe Cincinnati any more draft picks after they give them their 2nd rounder this year, but they will owe Palmer a combined 28 million in 2013 and 2014, his age 34 and 35 seasons. They’re kind of in a tough spot with him. He’s not worth that, especially not at that age, but they don’t have a better option internally nor do they have anyway of finding an immediate upgrade externally, so they’re kind of stuck with him for at least another year. However, he’s clearly not a long term solution.

Unless the new regime feels Al Davis holdover Terrelle Pryor is a potential future starter, they’ll need to find one this offseason. I don’t think they do as he was their 3rd string quarterback behind crappy Matt Leinart until week 17. Plus, after a decent showing in their week 17 finale, Head Coach Dennis Allen said that he “earned the chance for us to evaluate him some more,” but qualified that by reiterating that he was being evaluated for a chance to be the primary backup in 2013. The Ohio State product was widely viewed as a reach by people around the league when athleticism lover Al Davis took him in the 3rd round in the 2011 compensatory draft. It’s likely the new regime feels the same way about him.

Outside Linebacker

Phillip Wheeler was one of the bright spots for the Raiders defense this offseason, as he was playing for near the veteran’s minimum, but surprisingly was one of the better 4-3 outside linebackers in the league this year. The Raiders obviously want to retain him, but need to avoid overpaying him based on this one year and remember that he didn’t even get a million dollars on the open market last offseason.

If he’s not back, they’ll need to replace him in the starting lineup and even if they do retain him, this is still a need. Opposite Wheeler, 4th round rookie Miles Burris was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated 4-3 outside linebacker this season. They have so many needs that he might have to be given a 2nd chance, but that’s not ideal.

Middle Linebacker

Let’s just get all of the defensive positions (besides safety). One of many early Al Davis draft pick whiffs, Rolando McClain, the 8th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, got into a major disagreement with the coaching staff this season that ended with him getting benched and suspended. Owed 4 million in 2013, it’s assumed he won’t be welcomed back. In his absence, Omar Gaither struggled in limited action in the middle.

Tight End

Brandon Myers was one of the bright spots for the Raiders this season. An afterthought coming into the season in a receiving corps that features Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore, as well as talented rookies Juron Criner and Rod Streater, Myers led the team in receiving and was 2nd in the AFC in yardage among tight ends. Not bad for someone brought in primarily for his run blocking abilities (ironically, he really struggled as a blocker, as he was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated run blocking tight end). Unfortunately, he’s a free agent who will need to be retained. Like with Wheeler, they’ll need to avoid overpaying him for one year of production.

Punter

Earlier I said that the Raiders don’t have a player in the top-5 in the NFL at his respective position, but qualified it by saying I was referring to players except special teams specialists. This is because punter Shane Lechler is one of their best players. Unfortunately, like Brandon Myers and Phillip Wheeler, also among their best players, Lechler is a free agent this offseason.

Punt Returner

Phillip Adams was their primary punt returner this season, returning 25 punts, but he was terrible at it and Denarius Moore, who returned the other 9, was even worse. As a result, they ranked dead last in the NFL in punt return average by a yard and a half. They obviously need to do better than that.

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (4-11) at San Diego Chargers (6-9)

Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. There’s just no way to predict what kind of effort either side is going to give.

The Raiders do have a powerful trend on their side as they are road dogs off a road loss. Teams are 86-51 ATS in this spot since 2008. The Chargers are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games (3-3 ATS on the road in that same time period). This is also a game they’re expected to do something in. They are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as favorites or dogs of a field goal or less and 2-0 ATS as 3.5+ dogs in that same time period.

However, the Chargers do have one trend on their side as sub .500 home favorites are 24-10 ATS during week 17 since 2002. I haven’t used that one in any other games where it applies because I didn’t like the lack of line value we were getting with the host, but here I do. The Chargers rank 21st in net points per drive at -0.18, while the Raiders rank 29th at 0.80. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that the Chargers should be favored by 9.5. That doesn’t even take into account that the Raiders will be starting Terrelle Pryor in his first NFL start.

The Chargers are also, as bad as they’ve been, 4-1 ATS inside the division this year (3-7 ATS outside the division). On top of that, they do always close seasons out well under Norv Turner, going 21-8 ATS in week 14 or later since 2007, including 7-1 ATS in the division. As bad as they’ve been over the past 3 years, they are still 8-3 ATS in weeks 14-17. I expected them to send Norv Turner out in style, but again, it’s hard to back either side.

Public lean: ?

San Diego Chargers 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against spread: San Diego -10 (-110) 1 unit

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Oakland Raiders: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 4-11

Net points per drive: -0.80 (29th)

DVOA: -27.7% (29th)

Weighted DVOA: -26.7% (30th)

Studs

FS Matt Giordano: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

LE Lamarr Houston: 1 quarterback hit and 8 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

DT Desmond Bryant: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

SS Michael Mitchell: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 penalty, allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 2 attempts, 3 quarterback hurries on 7 blitzes

Duds

RB Darren McFadden: Rushed for 33 yards (28 after contact) on 17 attempts, caught 3 passes for 15 yards on 3 attempts

QB Matt Leinart: 16 of 32 for 115 yards and an interception, 1 drop, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 57.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 33 drop backs (1 sack, 6 of 9, 1 hit as thrown)

RT Khalif Barnes: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 2 attempts

WR Denarius Moore: Caught 3 passes for 12 yards on 6 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Brandon Myers: Caught 3 passes for 10 yards on 4 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 9 pass block snaps

WR Rod Streater: Caught 2 passes for 16 yards on 5 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

RE Matt Shaughnessy: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, no tackles

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 34 yards on 2 attempts

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Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Panthers, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)

One of my favorite trends is the six and six trend, which says that teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more. So far this year, teams that are currently 5-9 or worse are 2-5 ATS as favorites of 6 or more this season. The Eagles failed to cover week 1 as 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland. The Lions failed to cover as 6 point home favorites against the Rams week 1, then again as 7 point home favorites against the Colts a few weeks back, and then once again in Arizona last week as 7 point road favorites last week. The Raiders failed to cover as home favorites of 6 against the Jaguars earlier this year. The Bills and Browns covered as 6 point home favorites against the Jaguars and Browns respectively recently.

I didn’t go against the Eagles week 1 because there was really no way to know they’d be this bad. I went against the Lions week 1, but for different reasons. I went against the Raiders even that early in the year because they were 1-4 at the time. I went against the Lions last week in Arizona, but not against them at home against Indianapolis because the line was -4.5 when I took it. I went against both the Bills and Browns seeing them as obvious six and six candidates, but that didn’t work out.

It doesn’t always work out, but that’s a pretty powerful trend and it’s definitely in play here. The Panthers are at 5-9 and they are not just 6 point favorites, but 8.5 point favorites, just the 4th time since 1989 that a 5 or fewer win team has been favored by this much this late in the season since 1989 (1-1-1 ATS in the previous 3 instances). Unless the Panthers can win here (likely) and in New Orleans next week (unlikely), they’re an obvious six and six candidate.

They may also be caught looking forward to that New Orleans game next week, which is pretty much their Super Bowl. They probably won’t get up for crappy Oakland, an unfamiliar non-conference opponent. Non-conference favorites are 34-63 ATS before being divisional dogs since 2002. Oakland has a more important game next week in San Diego, a divisional rival, but they’re less likely to not get up because they are dogs here. Non-conference dogs are 71-88 ATS before being divisional dogs (including 45-52 ATS before being divisional road dogs), which isn’t that bad.

This is a significant play, but there are some reasons why it’s not a bigger play. The Panthers aren’t an ordinary 5-9 team. Because they’ve just lost 2 games by more than 6 points, they are 21st in net points per drive at -0.20. They’re even better in DVOA, ranking 13th in regular and 11th in weighted and they are playing really solid football of late, winning 3 of 4, only losing to the Chiefs the day after the Jovan Belcher incident. If you take the difference between their net points per drive and the Raiders’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that this line is right where it should be at 8.5, before even taking DVOA into account.

The 2nd reason is I’ve been burned a lot with the Raiders as they’ve covered a lot of games in situations they should have covered. They do have a tendency to not show up on occasion and here on the East Coast, where West Coast teams tend to struggle at 1 PM (the Raiders are 1-3 ATS there this year), in between two divisional games, that might happen. However, this is just too many points and it’s worth noting that the public is all over the Panthers and they always lose money in the long run. Worst case scenario, I like the Raiders’ chances of a backdoor cover.

Public lean: Carolina (80% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 11 OAK 5

Final thoughts: No change.

Carolina Panthers 24 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +8.5 (-110) 3 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 31 (+1)

Record: 4-10

Net points per drive: -0.76 (30th)

DVOA: -28.2% (30th)

Weighted DVOA: -28.1% (30th)

The Raiders shut out the Chiefs last week and still are tied for the league’s worst scoring defense. Aside from a weird win over the Steelers week 3, the Raiders wins have all come against the Chiefs (twice) and the Jaguars, who are the league’s worst teams right now. At 4-10 with games left against the Panthers and the Chargers, the Raiders look destined for 4-12. It’s not that those games are unwinnable, but I just don’t think they’ll win them.

Studs

RB Mike Goodson: Rushed for 89 yards (73 after contact) on 13 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 14 yards on 1 attempt

LG Cooper Carlisle: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 47 yards on 6 attempts

LT Jared Veldheer: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

RT Khalif Barnes: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 66 yards on 6 attempts

CB Brandian Ross: Allowed 3 catches for 12 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

CB Michael Huff: Did not allow a catch on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle

CB Joselio Hanson: Allowed 3 catches for 19 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: 6 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes

RE Andre Carter: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE LaMarr Houston: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

DT Tommy Kelly: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

WR Darrius Heyward Bey: Did not catch a pass on 5 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 1 penalty

LOLB Miles Burris: 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 31 yards on 4 attempts

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) at Oakland Raiders (3-10)

I picked the Chiefs as 6.5 point dogs last week in Cleveland because they were in such a good spot, but I made sure not to make it a huge play because I wasn’t sure how they’d respond once they had a week for the Jovan Belcher situation to settle in. In hindsight, I probably should have avoided the game entirely like I did the week before. However, 2 weeks after the incident, I don’t think that situation is relevant to purely picking games. Obviously, it’s still a relevant situation, but I don’t think it will affect them in any possible significant negative or positive ways on the field.

That’s good because I really like the Chiefs again this week. Their loss last week in Cleveland actually opened up a good situation for them this week. Road dogs are 86-50 ATS off a road loss since 2008. The Raiders, on the other hand, are in a bad situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS in what I call the sandwich situation since 2008, favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or less. For good teams, this game is a breather. For bad teams, well, they shouldn’t be favored. Bad teams have issues covering as favorites, which shouldn’t be too surprising.

Further proving that, the Raiders, who haven’t had a winning season since the 2002 season, are 9-28 ATS as favorites since the start of the 2003 season, their first in a long line of non-winning seasons. Meanwhile, teams are 16-26 ATS as favorites off 4 straight losses as dogs since 1989. The real line for this game, using the net points per drive method, is Oakland -3, which is what this line is (and it holds up to DVOA), but the fact remains: bad teams cannot be trusted to consistently cover.

One more trend works in Kansas City’s favor. Teams are 52-25 ATS as divisional road dogs trying to avenge a same season loss as home favorites. The Chiefs lost as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago, but teams rarely sweep the season series in a divisional matchup when the talent level is equal and I think it is between these two teams. The Chiefs loss as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago also points back to what I was just talking about: that bad teams cannot be counted on to consistently cover as favorites.

I’ve been hesitant to bet heavily on the Chiefs in the past when all the trends were on their side because they’re such a mistake prone team. However, the Raiders are equally mistake prone. They really have no business being favored. The Chiefs can make a bunch of mistakes and still win this game because the Raiders probably will do the same thing too. I also like that the Raiders are a heavy public lean. The public always loses money in the long run. It’s a significant play on the Chiefs.

Public lean: Oakland (70% range)

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Oakland Raiders 16 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (-110) 4 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 32 (+1)

Record: 3-10

Net points per drive: -0.91 (31st)

DVOA: -31.9% (30th)

Weighted DVOA: -31.7% (30th)

The Raiders’ only remaining home game right now is against the Chiefs and their last chance for a win, as they have to go to Carolina and San Diego and I can’t see them winning either of those games. I have them in the 31st spot because I think they lose to the Chiefs this week.

Studs

QB Carson Palmer: 19 of 30 for 273 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 3 drops, 97.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 31 drop backs (1 sack, 4 of 7, 1 touchdown, 1 drop)

LT Jared Veldheer: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

LG Cooper Carlisle: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts

WR Rod Streater: Caught 4 passes for 100 yards on 7 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 8.5 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Phillip Adams: Allowed 2 catches for 6 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

RT Khalif Barnes: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

TE Brandon Myers: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 2 attempts on 21 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 12 pass block snaps

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 5 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 2 solo tackles

LOLB Miles Burris: Allowed 3 catches for 34 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

RE Matt Shaughnessy: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

FS Matt Giordano: Allowed 2 catches for 34 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

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