Rams

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (6-7)

At first glance, this line seems off. The Cardinals aren’t as good as their 10-3 record, but rate of moving the chains differential still says we’re getting a significant amount of line value with them as 4.5 point underdogs. The Cardinals rank 10th, moving the chains at a 71.50% rate, as opposed to 69.85% for their opponents, a differential of 1.66%. The Rams, meanwhile, move the chains at a 70.48% rate, as opposed to 71.28% for their opponents, a differential of -0.80%. This line was 2.5 a week ago and it’s since moved across key numbers of 3 and 4 and I love fading significant line movements like that.

However, I understand why this line is where it is. The Rams are playing dominate football over the past two weeks, allowing opponents to move the chains at a mere 54.55% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for their offense. It’s also hard to ignore the fact that they haven’t allowed a single point in either of their last 2 games, becoming the just the 4th team in the last 25 years to pull off that feat. For the record, each of the previous 3 teams covered by an average of 10.67 points the following week, though that’s such a small sample size.

You can call the past two weeks a fluke and it’s important to remember that in the first 11 games of the season they moved the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 74.03% for their opponents, a differential of -4.53%. However, keep in mind that over those 11 games, they played 9 teams that currently have winning records and managed to pull the upset 3 times against the likes of Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco. You can say that over the past two weeks they were only playing the Redskins and the Raiders, but it’s not like the Cardinals’ offense is moving the ball well right now. In games that Drew Stanton has started, they are moving the chains at a mere 68.98% rate and they have just 2 offensive touchdowns in their last 3 games and one of those was a garbage time touchdown against a terrible Atlanta defense. That doesn’t exactly seem like a recipe for success going on the road against a red hot defense. The Cardinals’ defense isn’t healthy either with Tyrann Mathieu out and Antonio Cromartie likely out.

The Cardinals haven’t exactly been great on the road this year anyway, moving the chains at a 69.41% rate, as opposed to 71.27% for their opponents on the road this season. On the road with Drew Stanton, they move the chains at a 57.53% rate. The Rams were within 3 of the Cardinals in Arizona earlier this season before the Cardinals had 3 fluky touchdowns, one on a long pass, and two on return touchdowns. And that was when the Cardinals still had Carson Palmer. The Rams are also in a good spot as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional home favorites as teams are 51-33 ATS in that spot since 2008. They have no distractions on the horizon with the lowly Giants coming to town next week. I would have liked the Rams a lot more at 2.5, but they should still be the right side here at 4.5, even if it’s for a no confidence pick.

St. Louis Rams 17 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against spread: St. Louis -4.5

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Commanders, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

This line shifted an entire field goal from last week to this week as the early line was PK and now the line is at 3 in favor of the Rams on the road. It’s easy to understand why that happened, considering the Rams’ 52-0 trouncing of the Raiders last week. I love fading large line movements whenever it makes sense though as they’re often overreactions and I think that’s the case here. As good as last week’s win was, it was just against the Raiders and the Rams only were able to win by such a margin because they won the turnover battle by 5.

Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of +4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week over the past 25 years. Even crazier, teams with a turnover margin of +5 or more have an average turnover margin of -0.4 the following week. As a result, those teams are 61-84 ATS the following week because the line usually overcompensates for previous week’s game, as is the case here. The public, meanwhile, is still all over the Rams and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as it does here. This is a huge trap game for the public because they don’t understand the flukiness and inconsistency of turnover margins.

Even before the large line movement, I thought we were getting line value with the Redskins. While the Redskins’ record is a couple games worse, they actually rank higher in rate of moving the chains differential. They rank 19th, moving them at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 72.24% for their opponents, a differential of -0.81%. The Rams, meanwhile, rank 25th, moving them at a 70.11% rate, as opposed to 72.40% for their opponents, differential -2.29%. On the season, the Redskins are +22 in first down margin, while the Rams are -22. The Redskins aren’t definitely better than the Rams, but the Rams don’t have any business being favored by 3 here on the road.

The Redskins are also in the better spot, with a trip to New York to play the Giants on deck. Teams are usually 81-61 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. The Rams, meanwhile, have to take on the Cardinals in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, which opens up an even more powerful trend in the Redskins favor. Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night Football. We’re getting points at home with the better team at home in the better spot and we get to fade a huge line movement and a heavy public lean. I like the Redskins a good amount this week.

Washington Redskins 24 St. Louis Rams 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: High

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Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Raiders, Rams, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (1-10) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)

One of the most powerful trends says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. The problem with this trend is it’s often very hard to know whether or not a team favored by 6 or more is actually going to finish 6-10 or worse. The Rams sit here at 4-7 favored by 7 over Oakland needing to go 3-2 to finish above 6-10. They’re only favored in 2 of their remaining 5 games, this one against Oakland and a week 16 matchup in St. Louis with the Giants, which suggests they are likely to finish 6-10 or worse. On top of that, they are expected to be underdogs in Washington next week and non-divisional home favorites are 77-108 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

However, the line in the St. Louis/Washington game is only 1 and could easily switch to St. Louis being favored. According to the odds makers, that game is essentially a 50/50 toss-up. I disagree because I think the Redskins are underrated, but the Rams are very far from a lock to go 6-10 or worse. The six and six trend could easily not be in play this week. The Rams are also very far from a lock to be underdogs in Washington next week, so that other trend I mentioned could easily not be in play this week.

Oakland, however, does have a very tough game next week as they head home to face the 49ers. Teams are 91-125 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home underdogs. Even worse, teams are 57-89 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more, 29-62 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 9-24 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more (the early line is San Francisco -7.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both.

Speaking of the Raiders not being a very good football team, they still rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, even after last week’s win over the Chiefs, their first win of the season. They move the chains at a 63.48% rate, as opposed to 73.50% for their opponents, a differential of -10.02%. No one else has a differential worse than -8.55% (Tennessee). The Rams aren’t great, moving the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 74.03% for their opponents, a differential of -4.53% that ranks 26th in the NFL. However, they are good enough that I don’t have a problem taking them as touchdown favorites over the Raiders, though I’m not confident.

St. Louis Rams 23 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis -7

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4)

I’m completely split on this. On one hand, the Rams could easily be overconfident and off of a fluky win over the Broncos last week. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns (1), as the Rams were overly reliant on a +2 turnover margin. The Broncos moved the chains at a 68.75% rate, as opposed to 60.71% for the Rams. Road underdogs of 3 or more are 21-35 ATS since 1989 off of a win as 7+ point home underdogs. Teams can be not just overconfident, but also overvalued off of what’s usually a fluky victory.

I think the Rams are definitely overvalued here. They still only rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.76% rate, as opposed to 74.43% for their opponents, a differential of -4.67%. Meanwhile, the Chargers rank 16th, moving the chains at a 73.74% rate, as opposed to 73.10% for their opponents, a differential of 0.63%. That suggests this line should be much more than 5. It should at least be where it was last week, when the early line was 7, if not higher. I love fading big line movements because they’re often unwarranted and I think it is unwarranted here too.

On the other hand, the Chargers are in a terrible spot. While the Rams only have to play the Raiders next week, the Chargers have to go across the country and play the Ravens in Baltimore. Non-divisional home favorites are as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008, while teams conversely are 76-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m still taking the Chargers, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 30 St. Louis Rams 24

Pick against the spread: San Diego -5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Broncos, Rams, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (3-6)

The Broncos are the best team in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.53% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents, a differential of 7.54%. However, this line still might be too high at 10. The Rams rank 26th, moving the chains at a 70.72% rate, as opposed to 75.09% for their opponents, a differential of -4.37%. That’s not good, but they’re definitely better than the Raiders and they can give the Broncos way more of a game than the Raiders did last week. Remember, the Broncos have not played well on the road this season, losing in Seattle and New England and needing a late pick six to win by more than a touchdown in New York against the Jets. Last week was the exception, but the Raiders are a special kind of terrible this season.

Even before you take into account the Broncos’ relative road struggles, I still don’t think this line should be higher than 9. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Rams obviously and I’m not confident in them at all, but the public is all over the Broncos (predictably so) at a very high rate. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as the odds makers always make money in the long run and I think it makes sense here, even if I’m not confident.

Denver Broncos 28 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +10

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1)

The Cardinals are the most overrated team in the NFL. Despite having the NFL’s best record at 7-1, the Cardinals rank just 14th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.65% rate, as opposed to 71.71% for their opponents, a differential of 0.94%. However, the Rams aren’t very good either, moving the chains at a 71.19% rate, as opposed to 75.52% for their opponents, a differential of -3.72% that ranks 26th in the NFL. This line is also at 7 for two reasons. One, the Rams are a little overrated as well. Two, the odds makers know Arizona isn’t as good as their record and doesn’t want to give sharp bettors +10. The public is all over Arizona, because they’re caught up in records, and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense.

The Rams are also in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, the Rams are coming off of an emotional win over the 49ers and might not be at 100% or have nearly the focus they would if they had lost. Teams are 48-45 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road win, as opposed to 93-50 ATS for road underdogs off of a road win. Going off that, teams are 26-44 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a straight up win as double digit underdogs. I’m taking the Rams out of principle, but I’m not confident.

Update: It was brought to my attention that the Rams are in their 3rd straight road game instead of their 2nd. This doesn’t hurt them, as teams in their 3rd or 3 road games are 60-64 ATS, but it doesn’t help them. This doesn’t change my pick because I’m still fading the public and the overrated Cardinals out of principle, but it makes me even less confident about the Rams.

Arizona Cardinals 19 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +7

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (2-5) at San Francisco 49ers (4-3)

The Rams were blown out last week in Kansas City as 7 point underdogs, but I have reasons to believe that they won’t get blown out here as 10 point underdogs in San Francisco. One, they are in their second straight road game, rather than last week when they were in their first road game. Teams are 108-70 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 92-48 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game.

Two, while the Rams were facing a Chiefs team that was in a great spot last week (with only a game against the Jets on deck), the Rams are getting the 49ers before they play the Saints in New Orleans next week. They will almost definitely be underdogs next week and double digit favorites are 51-69 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs. Three, I think the Rams were facing a significantly better team last week when they faced the Chiefs than they are now facing the 49ers.

The 49ers haven’t been nearly as good this season as they’ve been in previous seasons under Jim Harbaugh, as a result of guys like NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Glenn Dorsey being out with injury and suspension. They rank just 22nd, moving the chains at a 74.04% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for their opponents, a differential of -1.82%. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains. This is actually going to be a much easier game for the Rams than last week’s, even before you take into account that the 49ers are in a bad spot and that the Rams are in their 2nd straight road game.

The Rams, meanwhile, rank 26th, moving the chains at a 73.33% rate, as opposed to 77.03% for their opponents, a differential of -3.70%. The 49ers are getting healthier, with Anthony Davis returning from extended absence and Patrick Willis coming back from missing the 49ers’ last game, while the Rams are now without top offensive lineman Jake Long and top wide receiver Brian Quick, but this line should still be no higher than a touchdown when you take everything into account, including the situational trends. The 49ers usually do well as big favorites, going 25-15 ATS in the Jim Harbaugh era as favorites of 3 or more, but they are just 2-3 ATS in that spot this season and I think this is going to be another ATS loss for them.

San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 16

Pick against spread: St. Louis +10

Confidence: Medium

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St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)

The Chiefs have proven to be the real deal this year. A year after relying on weak competition, an unsustainable turnover margin, and no injuries to go 11-5, the Chiefs have now knocked off New England and San Diego and come within a touchdown of both Denver and San Francisco on the road, 4 teams that could easily be playoff teams when everything is said and done, despite suffering several significant injuries and having a -2 turnover margin on the season. They also blew out the Dolphins in Miami by a score of 34-15 and their victory over the Patriots was by a whopping 27 points.

Despite their 3-3 record, the Chiefs rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 71.59% for their opponents, a differential of 5.83%. On top of that, their point differential is +21. All of this is despite the fact that they’ve played a fairly tough schedule thus far this season. The Rams, on the other hand, do not represent a tough opponent. They are moving the chains at a 74.87% rate, as opposed to 76.70% for their opponents, a differential of 1.84% that ranks 21st in the NFL. This line is too small at just a touchdown.

The Chiefs are also in the much better spot. While the Rams have another tough game in San Francisco next week, the Chiefs get to remain at home and take on the 1-win Jets. Non-divisional road underdogs are 51-78 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, teams are 52-81 ATS since 2010 before being divisional underdogs of a touchdown or more, which the Rams almost definitely will be in San Francisco next week (the early line is 7.5). That could easily serve as a huge distraction.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have no distraction next week and they will almost definitely be touchdown favorites over the lowly Jets. Teams are 31-54 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown underdogs when their opponent will next be touchdown favorites, as teams in that situation are at such a disadvantage schedule wise. Going off of that, teams are 77-62 ATS as touchdown favorites before being touchdown favorites since 2008, while touchdown underdogs are 70-91 ATS before being touchdown underdogs over that same time period. Making matters even worse for the Rams, they’re coming off an emotional win over divisional Seattle. Teams are 37-53 ATS since 1989 off of a win by 3 or fewer as divisional underdogs of 6 or more. Teams also don’t have a strong track record of covering after beating the defending Super Bowl champion. The Chiefs should win easily here and are my survivor pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 St. Louis Rams 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-4)

The Seahawks had a very disappointing loss at home to the Cowboys last week, a 30-23 game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score. That was just the Seahawks 2nd home loss since they drafted Russell Wilson in 2012. However, they generally bounce back off a loss, as good teams tend to. They are 7-2 ATS off a loss in the Russell Wilson era, dating back to 2012. They’re also in a good spot with a trip to Carolina on deck. Teams are 75-50 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and 47-29 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more (the Seahawks are currently projected to be 3.5 point favorites in Carolina).

However, the public is all over the Seahawks and I hate siding with the public. There’s not enough stuff in the Seahawks’ favor for me to be super confident in them. They also have generally been a very ordinary team this season and they’re missing key players with injury, including Bobby Wagner, Byron Maxwell, and possibly Max Unger. They are moving the chains at a 73.47% rate, as opposed to 73.08%, a differential of 0.39% that ranks 18th in the NFL. The Rams aren’t good, moving the chains at a 73.46% rate, as opposed to 75.35% for their opponents, a differential of -1.90% that ranks 23rd in the NFL, but we might still be getting significant line value with them. That being said, I don’t expect the Seahawks to be the 18th best team in the NFL all season so, at the end of the day, I’m going to take the Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks 27 St. Louis Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) at St. Louis Rams (1-3)

The 49ers have generally beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era, dating back to 2011, going 24-15 ATS as favorites of 3+ in that time period. The Rams definitely qualify as a bad team, as they are 1-3 and rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential at -2.18%. They move the chains at a 74.81% rate, as opposed to 76.99% for their opponents. However, the 49ers are 1-3-1 ATS this season despite the fact that they’ve been favored by 3 or more in all 5 games, the situation they traditionally dominate in.

They haven’t been the same team this season thanks to the loss of guys like NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Glenn Dorsey, and Anthony Davis to injury. Vernon Davis is expected back for this one, but they’ve still struggled by their standards this season and I don’t know if that’s going to fix everything, especially since their biggest problems are defensively. They are moving the chains at 75.34% rate, as opposed to 74.82% for their opponents, a differential of 0.52% that ranks only 16th in the NFL. I’m still going to take the 49ers, especially since home divisional underdogs are 30-56 ATS in night games since 1989, but I’m not confident at all.

San Francisco 49ers 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5

Confidence: None

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