Rams

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Rams, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)

So far this season, I’m 12-1 ATS picking Saints game and I would be 12-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated.

That’s the only time they’ve covered on the road this season, going 1-5 ATS and 3-3 SU, including a loss in New York to the Jets and a blowout loss in Seattle and near losses in Atlanta and Tampa Bay. That win in Chicago was their only win by more than 4 points on the road all season and it was by just 8 points. Over the past 4 seasons, they have just 6 road wins by a touchdown or more. As a result, they are 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 6+ dating back to 2010.

However, I don’t think we’re getting enough line value with the Rams to confidently take them here. The Rams are not very good. They are moving the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.95% that is 25th in the NFL. The Saints, meanwhile, are 3rd in differential, moving the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 69.13% for their opponents, a differential of 8.05%. That suggests this line should be around 9. Of course, that doesn’t take into account the Saints’ road issues, but I have to feel a team has at least a chance to win to confident take them as underdogs of a touchdown or less and I don’t feel that way about the Rams. I’m going to take them and hope for a close game, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (7-5) at St. Louis Rams (5-7)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Rams are in a great spot as road underdogs off of a road loss, after last week’s loss in San Francisco. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects.

However, the Rams have to host the Saints next week so they might not be able to be focused enough to compete here. Teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 5 in favor of New Orleans.

We’re also not getting any line value either way as this line is right around where it should be. The Cardinals rank 10th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. The Rams, meanwhile, 20th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. I have this line calculated at 6, which is exactly where it is. We can’t even fade the public because the public is also split almost completely. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Cardinals because of how fluky some of the Rams’ victories have been this season, but I have no confidence at all.

Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Arizona -6

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 26 (+5)

Record: 5-6

The Rams have won their last 2 games by 21+ to put them at 5-6, but they’re not as good as their record. The way they’re winning is unsustainable. Since 1989, there have been 25 instances of a team winning by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. The Rams have done that 3 times this season (and one of their other wins came against Jacksonville). Teams tend to struggle after such a game, going 6-18 ATS since 1989. I expect the 49ers to put the Rams in their place this week.

Week 12 Studs

LT Jake Long

RG Rodger Saffold

TE Jared Cook

RE Robert Quinn

DT Kendall Langford

Week 12 Duds

CB Brandon McGee

SS TJ McDonald

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (5-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The 49ers blew out the Redskins on Monday Night Football, 27-6. This is obviously good because the 49ers needed that win to stay in the 6th seed over the Cardinals, but also because teams almost always tend to carry the momentum from a huge Monday Night blowout into the next week. Teams are 30-13 ATS since 2002 off of a Monday Night win by 21 or more.

The 49ers in general seem to blowout bad teams. Colin Kaepernick has had his share of issues this season, but he’s played well against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, completing 86 of 138 for 1290 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns on 38 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 5 of those games by an average of 21.3 points per game. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 21-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season. They generally take care of inferior competition pretty easily.

The Rams are definitely inferior competition. Sure, they’ve won their last 2 games by 21+ to put them at 5-6, but they’re not as good as their record. The way they’re winning is unsustainable. Since 1989, there have been 25 instances of a team winning by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. The Rams have done that 3 times this season (and one of their other wins came against Jacksonville).

After their first game of that type, they got blown out in Carolina 30-15. After their second, they beat Chicago 42-21. However, teams are 6-18 ATS since 1989 off of that type of game, which I think is definitely worth noting. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that situation and I think both are true here. The Rams won’t be able to consistently rely on return touchdowns, big plays, and winning the turnover battle, especially not against a team like San Francisco, just like they couldn’t against Carolina.

They couldn’t do that against the 49ers the last time they played each other, losing by 24, and that was at home. And that was when they still had Sam Bradford under center and when San Francisco was without Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith and struggling during a 1-2 start. That line was 3 in the road, which would translate to about 9 at home, which is right around where this line is. I don’t think that’s right, considering how the 49ers blew them out and what’s happened since.

The only real way the Rams are better since then is they now have Zac Stacy, who has emerged as a feature back in this off-season. However, he might miss this game with a concussion, which would leave Benny Cunningham as the starter. Sure, he rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts last week, but that was against the Bears’ pathetic run defense. He rushed for just 6 yards on 4 carries against the 49ers earlier this year and, again, that was when the 49ers were without Willis and Smith. The 49ers should be able to blow the Rams out here. This is my Pick of the Week as long as it’s in single digits.

San Francisco 49ers 34 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Rams, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6)

Before the bye, the Rams beat the Colts in blowout fashion. However, there were a lot of fluky things going on. They scored twice on return touchdowns, twice on long touchdowns, and only had one methodical touchdown drive. This forced the Colts to abandon their game plan, which made the deficit even worse. Take away the fluke plays and that’s a completely different game. This is still a team moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. With the exception of fluky wins against Indianapolis and Houston (same sort of thing), their wins have come by a field goal over Arizona and a pair of touchdowns over a Jacksonville team that has lost 9 games by double digits. On the other hand, they have 3 losses of 15 or more and 2 losses of 20 or more.

Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. That’s not sustainable. After their last such game, a 25 point win over Houston, they got destroyed by Carolina in a 30-15 loss. In fact, teams who win a game by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more are 5-18 ATS since 1989. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that situation and I think both are true here. The Rams don’t deserve to be favored over the Bears, even if it’s only by a point. At the end of the day, they have a decent defense and a backup quarterback.

The Rams are also in a terrible spot as teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit dogs since 2010 and the Rams have a much bigger game in San Francisco next week that could easily be their Super Bowl since they aren’t really in the playoff mix. The Bears, meanwhile, are very much in the playoff mix and should be focused here for the Rams. I do think they’re a little overrated as well, mostly because their defense is atrocious (they made Baltimore’s offense look competent last week) and missing key players. Offensively, I don’t know how much I trust Josh McCown to keep this up.

Josh McCown is completing 60.4% of his passes for 7.47 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions on this season, a QB rating of 100.0. This is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 73.6, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. I have no doubt that Marc Trestman is a fantastic offensive coach who is making him look better than he is, but I don’t have a ton of faith he can keep this up continually. If he can’t, that would expose their defense. However, I am somewhat confident they should be able to beat the Rams in a game that pretty much has an even line.

Chicago Bears 23 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (+1)

Record 4-6

Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. That’s not sustainable. The Rams will probably only be favored once more going forward, at home for Tampa Bay. Don’t be fooled by their fluky wins. With the exception of those two wins, the Rams’ other 2 wins have come over the Jaguars and by a field goal at home over the Cardinals. Don’t be fooled by their record. This isn’t even an average football team.

Week 10 Studs

LE William Hayes

CB Trumaine Johnson

Week 10 Duds

RB Zac Stacy

TE Jared Cook

CB Janoris Jenkins

CB Cortland Finnegan

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 3-6

Kellen Clemens has predictably struggled, completing 37 of 70 for 387 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in relief of the injured Sam Bradford. However, the supporting cast has done a good job of rising up around him and, as a result, the Rams have lost their last 2 games by a combined 12 points despite playing a top level Seattle team and a sneaky good Tennessee team. However, both of those games were at home. Now they go on the road to Indianapolis and they might not have enough to keep it together. A look at their schedule suggests that a home game against Tampa Bay might be the only game in which they will be favored going forward so they’ll have to pull a couple of upsets to finish with more than 4 or 5 wins.

Week 9 Studs

LT Jake Long

LE Chris Long

DT Kendall Langford

Week 9 Duds

LG Chris Williams

ROLB JoLonn Dunbar

SS Darian Stewart

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Colts, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2)

On paper, this line might be a little bit too high. The Colts are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Rams are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 7, instead of 9.5. That being said, that doesn’t take into account that the Rams have lost Sam Bradford for the season.

Kellen Clemens has taken over and has completed 37 of 70 for 387 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. The supporting cast around him has stepped up and the Rams have only lost by a combined 12 points in their last 2 games, decent playing a top level Seattle team and a decent Tennessee team. However, this week they go on the road, which is a different story. This line might even too small.

Indianapolis could be distracted though. They have a big game against the Titans in a few days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. It’s tough to pick a side though. This line shifted from 12 to 9.5 in the past week for no real reason. I think I’ll just take the Colts as long as the line is lower than 10 points. I’m not confident though.

Indianapolis Colts 23 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -9.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Rams, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (3-4) at St. Louis Rams (3-5)

On paper, these two teams are pretty equal. The Titans are 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams are 22nd. The Titans move the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, while the Rams are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. However, these two teams are trending in opposite directions at the quarterback position. While the Rams are going into their 2nd full game without quarterback Sam Bradford, the Titans are going into their 2nd full game with quarterback Jake Locker back from injury.

Kellen Clemens, Bradford’s backup, is now the starter in St. Louis and he played as you would have expected him to play against an elite defense last week against the Seahawks, going 15 of 31 for 158 yards and 2 interceptions, while failing to lead the Rams to an offensive touchdown. The Rams kept it close against the Seahawks thanks to an inspired effort by the Rams’ defense in a 14-9 loss, but I question if they can keep that up. That performance was pretty uncharacteristic when you look at their whole season. If they can’t, the Rams are going to be in a lot of trouble.

The Titans, meanwhile, were 3-1 when Jake Locker went down with injury. They’ve lost their last 3 games, the first two with limited backup Ryan Fitzpatrick and the third with a clearly unhealthy Jake Locker, who was forced back too soon. Now after a bye for Locker to rest, he should be much better than he was last time, 2 weeks removed from his last performance, and he should be better than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The schedule also gets easier for the Titans. It also didn’t help that those 3 games were against the Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers. Those might not be the best three teams in the NFL, but certainly no reasonable person would call you crazy if you named those 3 as the best three teams in the NFL. The Titans were actually competitive in 2 of those 3 games, a testament to their strong defense. If Locker can continue playing solid football like he was pre-injury, the Titans should be able to play like they did when they started the season 3-1, now that the tough part of their season is over.

Given that, I think it’s very reasonable that the Titans are favored by 3 here. The line might actually be too low if anything. The Seahawks/Rams line shifted 6 points when Bradford went down and rightfully so. This line suggests that the Rams would be favored by 3 here if Bradford were healthy, which suggests that the Rams with Sam Bradford and the Titans with Jake Locker are essentially equivalent teams, which I don’t think is true.

The fact that the Titans deserve to be road favorites is especially relevant considering how well road favorites play coming out of byes, going 45-18 ATS since 2002. The Titans are a quality football team and should be completely focused and run over a significantly inferior football team here. The Rams, meanwhile, could be completely flat 6 days removed from a last second loss to hated divisional rival Seattle.

They’re also in a bad spot as they go to Indianapolis next week, when they’re expected to be 12 point underdogs. Teams are 33-68 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. The Rams probably will not be focused enough to pull the upset, which is essentially what they’d have to do to cover this 3 point spread, as only about 8% of games are decided by less than 3 points. The Titans, meanwhile, have no distractions with a home game against the Jaguars on deck. I think this could easily be a blowout and the Titans are a high confidence pick.

Tennessee Titans 24 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]