Ravens

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Steelers are in a better spot than the Ravens, finishing their season with an easy home game against the Browns on deck. Favorites of 6 or more, like the Steelers are here, tend to take care of business before easy games, going 96-54 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again. The Steelers have also been great at home this year, going 4-1 straight up and against the spread in the 5 home games that Ben Roethlisberger started, outscoring opponents by an average of 16.25 points per game in the 4 victories and only losing to the Cowboys in a close 5-point game.

On the other hand, this is the biggest game of either team’s season, so I expect both teams to be completely focused, even if the Steelers have an easier game than the Ravens do next week. The Steelers are barely 6 point favorites any way and it’s arguable they are favored by a point or two too many. They rank 10th in first down rate, but the Ravens rank 16th. These Steelers/Ravens games always tend to be close anyway, with 16 of the last 21 matchups between these two teams being decided by a touchdown or less. On top of that, 10 of the Ravens’ last 17 losses have come by 6 points or fewer, as they have a strong defense and tend to keep games close. I’m taking the Ravens, but this is a no confidence pick. I’d need a full touchdown to take the Ravens with any sort of confidence.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +6

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-6)

Much like many Ravens teams in recent memory, this Ravens team has a great defense, but an underwhelming offense. They enter this game 30th in first down rate, but 3rd in first down rate allowed and 15th in first down rate differential. The Eagles enter this game 26th in first down rate differential and very banged up on the offensive line, so the Ravens are definitely the better team here, but, with the line being 6, Philadelphia becomes a very appealing bet here because of the type of team Baltimore is. The Ravens have won just 3 of 12 games by more than 6 points in the past 2 seasons and are also without top cornerback Jimmy Smith, a big blow to this defense. Even though the Ravens are 15th in first down rate differential and the Eagles are 26th, there’s a smaller gap between 15th and 26th than there is between 8th and 15th, so these two teams are closer than that suggests.

The Ravens are also in a tough spot with a huge divisional clash with the Steelers on deck, a game in which the Ravens figure to be at least 6 point underdogs in Pittsburgh. Favorites of 6 or more are just 51-87 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of 6 or more. With that huge game on deck, the Ravens could easily overlook the Eagles, who could pull off the win in a trap game. Even if they don’t, we’re getting 6 points with them and this should be another close game for the Ravens. If you can get the full 6, it’s worth a bet.

Baltimore Ravens 16 Philadelphia Eagles 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +6

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at New England Patriots (10-2)

The Patriots are a very interesting team. Despite being without Tom Brady for the first 4 games of the season, they rank 2nd in first down rate. Since Brady returned, they are 7-1 with 6 of 7 wins by double digits. However, they have had a very easy schedule over those 8 games. Aside from Seattle, who beat them by a touchdown in New England, their toughest game since Brady’s return was in Buffalo. Yes, they can only play the teams that are on their schedule and they’ve done pretty well in doing so, as most of the wins have come by convincing margins, but Jamie Collins is in Cleveland, Rob Gronkowski is on injured reserve, and it’s fair to wonder how good they really are. We’ll find out a lot this week as they host the Baltimore Ravens, who are a step up in class from most of the teams the Patriots have faced in recent weeks.

After largely playing close games all season, the Ravens got their biggest win by margin of victory since 2009 last week, with a 38-6 home victory over a capable Miami team. It was out of character for this team, but boosted them to 12nd in first down rate differential and moved this line from 10 on the early line last week to 6.5 this week. As a result, we’re not getting good line value with the Ravens. However, the Ravens are in a good spot with an easy home game against the Eagles on deck, while the Patriots have to go to Denver next week. Underdogs of 6 or more points are 41-31 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6 or more the following week, which the Ravens are expected to be, according to the early line. It’s a no confidence pick at 6.5, but the Ravens are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

New England Patriots 24 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +6.5

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (7-4) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

This line at 3.5 in favor of the hometown Baltimore Ravens suggests the Ravens are a slightly better team than the Dolphins. I think it’s the opposite. Both teams come into this game relatively healthy compared to most of the season, with the Dolphins getting left tackle Branden Albert and left guard Laremy Tunsil back this week, while the Ravens get cornerback Jimmy Smith back. However, the Dolphins rank 12th on the season in first down rate differential, while the Ravens rank 19th in that metric. This line should be around 2.5, which might not seem like a big difference from 3.5, but it is, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. The Ravens are certainly no strangers to field goal games, as 4 of their 11 wins in the past 2 seasons have come by exactly a field goal. That makes sense, as the Ravens have a great defense, but a struggling offense. That’s not exactly a recipe for big blowout wins. The Dolphins are a quality opponent, so, if the Ravens win, it’ll likely be by a field goal or less.

The Dolphins are also in a much better spot than the Ravens, as they host the skidding Cardinals next week, while the Ravens have to turn around and go to New England, where the early line has them as 10 point underdogs. The Dolphins will be favored next week at home for the Cardinals and underdogs are 94-61 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs. On top of that, teams are 41-63 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, as upcoming big games like that tend to be a distraction for a team. As favorites, teams are 37-62 ATS since 2002 before being double digit underdogs. Combining the two, underdogs are 48-20 ATS since 1989 before being favorites when their opponents will next be double digit underdogs. I like the Dolphins a lot this week.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-6-1) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5)

Already in the middle of a down year, the Bengals suffered two major injuries last week, as running back Giovani Bernard went down for the season with a torn ACL and #1 wide receiver AJ Green went down for an extended period of time with a strained hamstring. In addition, the Bengals will also be without starting safety Shawn Williams this week with injury. On the other side, the Ravens have gotten healthier in recent weeks, as the guys like Marshal Yanda, Steve Smith, CJ Mosley, Terrell Suggs, and Elvis Dumervil, who missed time earlier this year, are all healthy now. They are now without top cornerback Jimmy Smith, but, all in all, they’re healthier now than they’ve been for most of the season. All that being said, I don’t have a strong opinion either way. This line, at -4 in favor of the hometown Baltimore Ravens, is pretty reasonable. I’m taking the Ravens, but it’s hard to be confident in them as 4 point favorites because I don’t know just how bad the Bengals will be without Green and Bernard.

Baltimore Ravens 22 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -4

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (5-4) at Dallas Cowboys (8-1)

The Cowboys pulled off a huge upset victory in Pittsburgh last week to improve to 8-1, the only team in the entire NFL with only one loss. Now they are 7.5 point favorites here at home over the Ravens and the early line has them as 6.5 point home favorites for the Redskins next week. Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again because they have no upcoming distractions and can take care of business against an inferior opponent. Favorites of 6 or more are 89-50 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again. However, it hurts the Cowboys that next week’s game is on Thursday Night, their annual Thanksgiving home game. Favorites are 50-82 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008.

With that in mind, I’m actually going to take the Ravens this week. Not only do the Cowboys have a game upcoming in 4 days, this line is a little bit too high when you consider the Cowboys haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years. The Cowboys are 31-21 ATS on the road since 2010, which is impressive, but just 18-34 ATS at home over the same time period, including 10-26 ATS as home favorites. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored opponents by 0.02 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 0.96 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a half point for them in recent years.

That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans throughout the country and get great support on the road. They’re 3-1 ATS at home this year, but that’s because they’ve been underrated all season. That’s no longer the case, as evidenced by this line. They could have easily lost to the Eagles, while their other 2 wins came against the Bears and Bengals (both by 14). The Ravens are a set up from those 2 teams and should be able to keep it close here. There’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Ravens, but they’re the pick.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +7.5

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-9) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4)

The Browns are arguably the worst team in the league and certainly one of the worst two or three teams, but this line is way too high at 10. The Ravens are a solid squad, but have the worst offense in the league in terms of first down percentage. Their defense has been great, entering this game with the 2nd lowest first down percentage allowed in the NFL, but they only rank 18th in first down percentage differential, despite the 4th easiest schedule in the league in terms of opponent’s winning percentage. The Browns have a very weak defense, but it’s still going to be very tough for the Ravens to cover the 10, as limited as they are offensively. In fact, their last win by more than 10 points came in week 14 of 2014. And that’s despite the fact that they’ve played the Browns 4 times since then.

The Ravens are also in a horrible spot, playing an inferior team on a short week after a huge home upset victory over the Steelers last week, with a tough trip to Dallas on deck, a game in which they figure to be at least 6 point underdogs on the early line. Favorites of 6 or more are 23-52 ATS since 2008 before being 6 point underdogs and favorites of 10 or more are 54-73 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of any amount. On top of that, teams are 58-78 ATS since 2012 off of a home upset victory like the Ravens’ win over the Steelers last week.

The Browns aren’t exactly in an easy spot either, as they have to turn around and face the Steelers at home, a game in which they figure to be huge home underdogs. Teams are 37-88 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as big upcoming home games like that tend to be a big distraction for teams. However, that has not been the case historically with winless teams this late in the season, as teams that are 0-7 or worse are 17-8 ATS before being huge home underdogs since 1989. Believe it or not, betting on winless teams this late in the season has actually been a winning bet in the past, as teams that are 0-7 or worse are 53-25 ATS since 1989. Winless teams understandably tend to be undervalued and I think that’s the case in this game. The Browns have kept 4 of their 9 losses within single digits and I like their chances of doing so this week against a Baltimore team that has had major issues moving the ball this season.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10

Confidence: High

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-4)

The bye came at the perfect time for the Steelers. Not only is Ben Roethlisberger expected to return from a 1-game absence with a knee injury, but they are basically 100% healthy coming out of the bye. This is after the Steelers were one of the most injury plagued teams in the league to start the season. The Steelers’ record isn’t bad, but they rank just 25th in first down percentage differential, largely thanks to all of their injuries. It’s not just Ben Roethlisberger, as wide receiver Markus Wheaton, left guard Ramon Foster, right tackle Marcus Gilbert, defensive end Cameron Heyward, and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier have all missed time with injury, while running back Le’Veon Bell missed time with suspension. Outside of Roethlisberger, Heyward was their biggest injury because he’s their best defensive player. They missed him badly in the two games he missed before the bye (both losses) and he’ll be a very welcome re-addition.

The Ravens are also coming out of a well timed bye. The Ravens limped into the bye week with an underwhelming loss in New York to the lowly Jets, a game in which they were missing middle linebacker CJ Mosley, outside linebackers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, right guard Marshal Yanda, and wide receiver Steve Smith. Dumervil remains out, as he has been for most of the season, but everyone else should be back healthy. When they were healthier, the Ravens started the season 3-0 before losing 4 straight, but that was because they had several close wins against weak opponents. Overall on the season, they’ve had a much easier schedule than the Steelers and are overall a worse team when both of these teams are healthy. This line is more or less where it should be at 2 in favor of the visiting Steelers, but I’m taking the Steelers for a no confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -2

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at New York Jets (1-5)

No team has had a bigger drop-off from 2015 to 2016 than the New York Jets. A year removed from going 10-6 and finishing 2nd in first down percentage differential, the Jets are now 1-5 and rank dead last in that metric. They entered the season with one of the oldest rosters in the league, so some drop-off was to be expected, but they’ve been night and day different than last year. The obvious culprit is the offense, where veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been easily the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season and has looked lost without injured wide receiver Eric Decker, who is out for the season. However, their defense has been just as bad. One year after finishing 1st in first down percentage allowed, they enter this game 28th in that metric, just one spot worse than their offense, which enters in 29th in first down percentage.

The Jets have made the switch at quarterback from Fitzpatrick to backup Geno Smith, who will be making his first start since 2014 this week. He’s unlikely to be better though, as he looked overmatched as a starter in his first 2 seasons in the league in 2013 and 2014 and didn’t look much better in relief of Fitzpatrick last week. In his career, he’s completed 57.9% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions. He also doesn’t have a lot of talent around him on either side of the ball; outside of the defensive line, this team doesn’t have a single above average position group.

Despite that, they’re actually favored at home in this matchup for some reason, as 2 point home favorites over the visiting Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are far from great, entering at 3-3 with all 6 games decided by a touchdown or less, and also enter this game very banged up, missing both starting outside linebackers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, middle linebacker CJ Mosley, wide receiver Steve Smith, and right guard Marshal Yanda. Those are some of their best players. However, they still shouldn’t be getting points here on the road against an awful Jets team. Even as banged up as they are, they still have a significantly more talented roster than the Jets.

On top of that, the Ravens are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 132-100 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-68 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-236 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.87 points per game, as opposed to 322-448 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. In fact, the Ravens have actually played a game in New York more recently than the Jets did, losing a close one to the Giants last week. The Jets, meanwhile, have had to fly to the West Coast and back in the past week, with a crushing 28-3 defeat in Arizona on Monday Night Football in between. I don’t see them being able to bounce back on a short week. The Ravens are my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 20 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3)

This line has shifted a half point since the early line last week, as the Giants are now 3.5 point favorites. That might not seem like a huge line movement, but, considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, it’s a very significant half point. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements, but in this case the movement makes sense, as the Ravens are expected to be without edge rusher Elvis Dumervil, wide receiver Steve Smith, middle linebacker CJ Mosley, right guard Marshal Yanda, and left tackle Ronnie Stanley. That’s a huge chunk of their team they’re missing.

Smith, Mosley, and Yanda are missing their first games of the season, while Dumervil is out again after re-injuring his foot, which originally cost him the first 3 games of the season. Yanda is an especially big loss, as he’s one of the best guards in the league. Without him and Stanley (who will miss his 3rd straight game) on the line, this offense figures to continue to struggle. All that being said, I’m still taking the Ravens because the Giants have a London game on deck and teams understandably are 7-19 ATS before a London game all-time and because 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I have no confidence in Baltimore, but they’re the pick at 3.5. At 3, I might change my pick. That’s how close this is.

New York Giants 20 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: None

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