Quarterback

The Ravens won the #1 seed in the loaded AFC a year ago and finished #1 in DVOA, but they fell short in the post-season and could have an uphill battle to get back to those heights in 2024. Not only is the AFC even more loaded this season, with the Bengals and Jets set to get healthier seasons from Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers, but the Ravens lost several key players on both sides of the ball this season, with three of their top-10 in snaps played on offense and three of their top-10 in snaps played on defense not being retained this off-season and most of them not being adequately replaced.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson might not be as good either. He’s still likely to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league regardless, but he was MVP last season, which is hard to do two seasons in a row. Jackson has won an MVP before, back in 2019, and between his two MVP seasons, he has 66.7% completion, 7.93 YPA, 60 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, while adding 2,027 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground on 324 carries (6.26 YPC), which is incredible, but in his other three seasons as a starter from 2020-2022, he hasn’t been as good, with 63.7% completion, 7.27 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, while adding 2,536 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground on 404 carries (6.27 YPC), and finishing all three seasons injured. If he’s closer to his 2020-2022 form than 2019 or 2023, it will hurt the Ravens’ offense, especially if he ends up missing time with injury again.

The Ravens also don’t have a good backup behind him. Tyler Huntley has been mediocre in Jackson’s absence in his career, with 64.6% completion, 5.72 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while adding 509 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground on 115 carries (4.43 YPC) in 9 career starts, but he wasn’t even retained this off-season, leaving the Ravens backup job either to Josh Johnson, who has thrown just 355 passes in 16 seasons in the league and who is now in his age 38 season, or to 6th round rookie Devin Leary, both of whom are among the worst backup quarterback options in the league and massive drop offs from Jackson. With the AFC getting tougher and the Ravens’ roster around him getting worse, the Ravens will need Lamar Jackson to stay healthy and play close to an MVP caliber level for the Ravens to continue being contenders.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The unit that lost the most this off-season is the offensive line, where three of five starters from a year ago are now gone. Left guard John Simpson was mediocre with a 56.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, but right guard Kevin Zeitler had a 69.3 PFF grade in 15 starts and right tackle Morgan Moses had a 77.6 PFF grade in 14 starts and the Ravens didn’t do nearly enough to replace them. The right tackle job will likely either go to second round rookie Roger Rosengarten, who could struggle through growing pains as a rookie, 2022 4th round pick Daniel Faalele, who has been mediocre on 355 snaps in two seasons in the league, or Patrick Mekari, who has finished above 65 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (36 starts total), but who has never been a season-long starter and could struggle to adjust to a new role.

Mekari’s best asset is his versatility and he could also be an option at guard, where the other competitors for the two vacant jobs are 2023 7th round pick Andrew Voorhees, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, 2021 3rd round pick Ben Cleveland, who has played 621 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league, and veteran free agent addition Josh Jones, who has mostly been mediocre in 24 starts in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2020, while seeing action at both guard and tackle. Whoever wins the starting right tackle job and the starting jobs at guard, the Ravens could have multiple positions of weakness on the offensive line this season. 

Left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum are the returning starters from a year ago. Both are former first round picks, Stanley selected 6th overall in 2016 and Linderbaum selected 25th overall in 2022. Stanley started his career with five straight seasons over 70 on PFF, including a career best 88.5 PFF grade in 2019, but he first started getting injured in 2020, has missed 36 games in four seasons since, and has been a shell of himself over the past three seasons as a starter. Stanley had his healthiest season since 2019 last season, making 13 starts, but he had just a 64.9 PFF grade and, now four years removed from his last prime season and going into his age 30 season, his best days are almost definitely over. He’s also likely to miss more time with injury at some point this season.

Linderbaum, meanwhile, is the highlight of this offensive line, receiving PFF grades of 74.7 and 78.3 in 32 total starts in his first two seasons in the league and still going into his age 24 season, meaning his best seasons may still be ahead of him. He somewhat elevates an offensive line that is otherwise pretty mediocre, after having lost three starters from a year ago without adequately replacing them. If this offense takes a big step back in 2024, the decline of this group will likely be the reason why.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Ravens also lost lead back Gus Edwards from a year ago, after he rushed for 810 yards and 13 touchdowns on 198 carries (4.09 YPC), but he won’t be missed because the Ravens upgraded on him by signing veteran Derrick Henry to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal. Henry is heading into his age 30 season with 2,185 career touches, so his best days are probably behind him and he could continue declining further in 2024, but he still had 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.17 YPC) on an overall mediocre Tennessee offense a year ago and, now on a much better offense in Baltimore, he could thrive, even at less than his best.

This is a run heavy offense, ranking 1st in the NFL with 541 carries last season, but I wouldn’t expect Henry to have the same workload he’s used to, as Jackson takes off and runs with the ball frequently himself and the Ravens also have Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell behind Henry on the depth chart to take some of the load off Henry, which could benefit him as he ages. Mitchell has by far the most potential of the two, averaging 8.42 YPC on 47 carries and 1.82 yards per route run as an undrafted rookie in 2023. However, the 5-8 190 pounder is too small to be anything more than a change of pace back, he played in a very limited role in 2023, and he could miss the start of the season and/or not be at 100%, as he works back from a significant leg injury suffered late last season.

Hill, meanwhile, has a 4.60 YPC average in his career, but only 203 carries in five seasons in the league. He was the Ravens’ primary passing down back last season though and will likely remain in that role, as Henry has never been much of a pass catcher, with 1.19 yards per route run and 155 catches in 119 games in 8 seasons in Tennessee. Hill has only averaged 0.72 yards per route run in his career and is an underwhelming passing down option, but Lamar Jackson doesn’t target his running backs in the passing game much anyway, preferring to take off and run when he gets in trouble rather than checking down, so a lack of a good passing down option out of the backfield is not a big deal. Led by the arrival of Derrick Henry, this is an improved backfield, even if Henry probably isn’t what he once was.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Ravens also lost wide receiver Odell Beckham this off-season. Beckham didn’t have a huge impact, playing 465 snaps in 14 games and totaling a 35/565/3 slash line, but he was very efficient, with 1.92 yards per route run and 8.83 yards per target, both best among Ravens wide receivers a year ago, and the Ravens did nothing to replace him. Instead, Rashod Bateman (609 snaps) and Nelson Agholor (581 snaps) will likely play bigger roles, with Zay Flowers (904 snaps) continuing as the #1 receiver. 

Flowers led the team with 108 targets and a 77/858/5 slash line, while averaging 1.64 yards per route run. He was also only a rookie, selected 23rd overall, and has the upside to take a step forward and be even better in 2024, which would potentially help the Ravens replace Odell Beckham, though that’s not a guarantee. Bateman is also a former first round pick, selected 27th overall in 2021, but his career hasn’t gone well, as he’s averaged 1.35 yards per route run, while missing 16 games in three seasons in the league. He’s only going into his age 25 season so he could still have untapped upside, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he struggled in an expanded role in 2024.

Agholor, meanwhile, averages just a 42/514/4 slash line per season and a 1.18 yards per route run average in 135 games in nine seasons in the league and now heads into his age 31 season, so he’s a very underwhelming option. The Ravens’ only other options though are Deonte Harty, an undersized (5-6 170) return man and gadget player with 79 catches in career 56 games, Tylan Wallace, a 2021 4th round pick with 7 career catches and 0.53 yards per route run, and 4th round rookie Devontez Walker, who is likely to raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie.

Fortunately, the Ravens do get tight end Mark Andrews back from injury after he was limited to 467 snaps in 10 games last season, which should offset their depth issues at wide receiver somewhat. Despite his position, Andrews is almost like a #1 receiver, with a 83/1031/9 slash line per 17 games over the past five seasons, as well as 2.17 yards per route run. In total, he has received PFF grades above 80 in five straight seasons, with two seasons over 90. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, Andrews should remain one of the best tight ends in the league in 2024.

The Ravens also have a good backup in Isaiah Likely, a 2022 4th round pick with 1.42 yards per route run in his career who got an extended role in Andrews’ absence last season, leading to a 30/411/5 slash line and a 1.45 yards per route run average. Still only in his age 24 season, Likely could have further untapped upside. He won’t see a lot of targets behind Mark Andrews, but the Ravens could use two tight end sets frequently to mask their lack of depth at wide receiver somewhat, so Likely is definitely an asset to this offense. The Ravens also have another 2022 4th round pick at tight end, Charlie Kolar, a blocking specialist who played 230 snaps last season and caught just 7 passes. This is a pretty top heavy receiving corps led by Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers, but those two make it a decent group overall.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Ravens also lost several key players on defense this off-season, without really replacing any of them. One of those players was edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, who signed a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal in Carolina this off-season, after having a 85.7 PFF grade across 653 snaps in 2023, while totaling 9.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate. The only thing the Ravens did to replace Clowney was using a third round pick on Adisa Isaac. Isaac figures to have an immediate role, even if he could struggle through growing pains as a rookie, and the Ravens also will probably give bigger roles to a trio of young players, Odafe Oweh (436 snaps), Tavius Robinson (335 snaps), and David Ojabo (83 snaps).

Oweh was a first round pick in 2021 and excelled in limited action last season with a 80.7 PFF grade and 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate, but he has been inconsistent in his career, especially in bigger roles, which he will have this season. As a rookie in 2021, he had a 67.9 PFF grade and a 11.6% pressure rate and in 2022 he had a 56.8 PFF grade and a 9.9% pressure rate, on snap counts of 615 and 665 respectively. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue playing at a high level in a bigger role in 2024, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Ojabo, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but injuries have limited him to just 104 snaps in two seasons in the league. He was injured when the Ravens drafted him and, if not for his injury, he could have been a top-15 pick, but, even though he was injured when he was drafted, the Ravens have to be disappointed by how little they’ve gotten out of him thus far. He’s only going into his age 24 season and, if he’s past his injuries, he could have a breakout year in 2024, but he’s a complete unknown and could miss more time with injury, so he’s far from a guarantee to have that breakout year. Tavius Robinson, meanwhile, was just a 4th round pick in 2023 and had an underwhelming 55.3 PFF grade and a 5.6% pressure rate as a rookie last season. It’s possible he could be better in his second season in the league in 2024, but that’s far from a guarantee.

The Ravens also still have veteran Kyle Van Noy, who was decent with a 72.8 PFF grade on 485 snaps last season, excelling as a pass rusher with 9 sacks, 2 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate. Van Noy has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, with three seasons over 70, but he’s now going into his age 34 season and could easily decline in a significant way in 2024. Even if he doesn’t decline significantly, Van Noy is probably only a part-time player at this stage of his career, like he was last season, and is unlikely to see a big jump in snap count even with Clowney no longer on the team. With Clowney gone and Van Noy getting up there in age, the Ravens badly need multiple of their young edge defenders to step up, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

Fortunately, the Ravens did keep Justin Madubuike, who had a 75.1 PFF grade across 757 snaps last season, leading this team in sacks with 13, despite playing on the interior, while adding 18 hits and a 12.5% pressure rate as well. The Ravens had to give him a 4-year, 98 million dollar deal that makes him the 3rd highest paid interior defender in the league to keep him and, at his best, he’s worth that contract, but he’s also a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season. 

Madubuike did have a 72.1 PFF grade as a third round rookie in 2020, but only on 259 snaps and he followed that up with PFF grades of 56.6 and 63.6 on snap counts of 482 and 655 in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Across those first three seasons in the league, his pressure rate was just 6.6%. Madubuike is only in his age 27 season and could have permanently turned a corner and will remain the caliber of player he was a year ago, but he also could regress a little bit, which would hurt a defense that is already missing several key players from a year ago.

The rest of this interior defender group remains the same as a year ago, when Michael Pierce played 640 snaps, Travis Jones played 452 snaps, Broderick Washington played 410 snaps, and Brent Urban played 280 snaps. Pierce was the best of the bunch with a 77.0 PFF grade, playing the run well and adding 1 sack, 3 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. Pierce has always played well when healthy in his career, never finishing above 60 on PFF in eight seasons in the league, with six seasons above 70. However, durability has been a problem for the big 6-0 355 pounder, as he’s missed 43 total games in his career, while exceeding 500 snaps in a season just one other time aside from last season, and now he’s going into his age 32 season, so he could easily decline and/or miss significant time this season, both of which would hurt this defense.

Brent Urban is also an older player, going into his age 33 season, and he’s been mostly a reserve though his career, averaging just 224 snaps per season in 10 seasons in the league, but the Ravens don’t need him for more than that this season and, in very limited action a year ago, he had a decent 62.8 PFF grade. He could decline significantly in 2024, but he could also remain a decent deep reserve and, either way, he doesn’t play enough for it to have a significant impact on this defense.

Travis Jones and Broderick Washington, meanwhile, are relatively young. Washington has mostly been mediocre since being selected in the 3rd round in 2020, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons, including a 43.8 PFF grade last season, while averaging just 337 snaps per season. Jones, meanwhile, was a third round pick in 2022 and has shown promise thus far in his career, with PFF grades of 62.5 and 70.6 on snap counts of 322 and 452 respectively. In the likely case that Pierce declines or gets hurt, the Ravens will need more out of Travis Jones and he seems capable of giving that to them. Overall, this is a solid group with little that has changed from a year ago, except for Pierce getting older and Travis Jones likely stepping up to compensate.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Another key player the Ravens lost on defense this off-season was Patrick Queen, who had a 73.1 PFF grade on 1,120 snaps last season and then signed a 3-year, 41 million dollar deal with the rival Steelers this off-season. Without a replacement being added, the Ravens will likely turn to 2023 3rd round pick Trenton Simpson, who has the upside to be a starter, but who only played 46 snaps as a rookie last season. Even in a best case scenario, he figures to be a significant downgrade. If Simpson struggles, the only other option the Ravens have is Malik Harrison, who went in the 3rd round in 2020 and has shown flashes in his career, but has also only played 881 snaps in four seasons in the league.

Fortunately, the Ravens do still have Roquan Smith, who was one of the best off ball linebackers in the league last season, with a 80.1 PFF grade on 1,066 snaps. Smith also had a 84.7 PFF grade in nine games in his first half season in Baltimore in 2022, after being acquired from the Bears mid-season. Smith was inconsistent in his four and a half seasons in Chicago, but he flashed talent and the 2018 8th overall pick always had upside, which he seems to have made good on, now with his second team. Still only in his age 27 season, he should remain a high level every down linebacker in 2024 and he’s unlikely to regress back to his Chicago form. He significantly elevates an otherwise underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Ravens also lost safety Geno Stone this off-season, after he had a 71.9 PFF grade on 950 snaps in 17 games last season. The Ravens had good safety depth with both Kyle Hamilton (84.7 PFF grade on 936 snaps in 15 games) and Marcus Williams (71.7 PFF grade on 636 snaps in 11 games) playing at high levels in significant roles last season, but the Ravens used that safety depth to mask their lack of depth at cornerback, something they’ll be unable to do this season, with Stone gone and the only replacement added being 7th round rookie Sanoussi Kane, who will compete with Ar’Darius Washington, a 2021 undrafted free agent with 145 career snaps, for the top reserve safety job.

The Ravens would be in trouble if either one missed significant time with injury, but Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams at least remain a high level safety duo. Hamilton looks on his way to being one of the best safeties in the league for years to come, being selected 14th overall in 2022, excelling in a part-time role as a rookie with a 82.3 PFF grade across 547 snaps, extending that into an every down role in 2023, and still only going into his age 23 season in 2024. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take another step forward and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the best safeties in the league.

Williams, meanwhile, has also been a consistently high level safety throughout his career, finishing above 70 in all seven seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2017, with three seasons above 80, and he’s still only in his age 28 season, so he’s unlikely to decline in 2024. Durability has been a concern for him throughout his career though, as he’s only played in every game once, while missing 18 games total in seven seasons in the league, with 13 of those coming in the past two seasons. That’s especially a concern in 2024, given the Ravens’ lack of safety depth.

With the Ravens no longer having the safety depth needed to mask issues at cornerback, the Ravens used a first round pick in this year’s draft on Nate Wiggins, who figures to start at cornerback immediately, even as a rookie. He could struggle through some growing pains as a rookie, but has a good chance to at least be an adequate starter, with the upside for more. The Ravens did lose veteran cornerback Ronald Darby this off-season, who had a 69.5 PFF grade last season, but he only played 442 snaps and the Ravens are hoping they can make for Darby’s loss by getting a healthier season out of Marlon Humphrey, who was limited to 540 snaps in 10 games last season. Humphrey, Wiggins and Brandon Stephens will start in three cornerback sets for the Ravens.

Humphrey is also a former first round pick, selected 16th overall in 2017. In seven seasons in the league, he has finished above 60 on PFF in every season, with five seasons over 70, and, still only in his age 28 season, he should remain an above average starter in 2024. If he can be healthier than a year ago, that will be a big boost for the Ravens’ secondary and he’s likely to at least play more games than he did a year ago, but durability has been a concern for him for most of his career, as he’s exceeded 1,000 snaps in a season just once, while missing 15 games total in seven seasons in the league.

Brandon Stephens, meanwhile, was a third round pick in 2021, but struggled in his first two seasons in the league with PFF grades of 53.0 and 52.5 on snap counts of 742 and 452, while splitting time between safety and cornerback, before breaking out with a 69.2 PFF grade in 16 starts as a full-time cornerback in 2023. Stephens is only a one-year wonder and could regress in 2024, but it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter, still only in his age 27 season and seemingly more comfortable playing in one spot, rather than splitting time between cornerback and safety like he did earlier in his career.

The Ravens’ top reserve cornerbacks options are veteran Arthur Maulet, 2022 4th round pick Jalyn Armour-Davis, who has played just 78 snaps in two seasons in the league, and 4th round rookie TJ Tampa, with Maulet likely the heavy favorite for the #4 cornerback job. Maulet had a 70.3 PFF grade across 407 snaps last season, but he’s now going into his age 31 season and, even in his prime, he was a mediocre slot specialist who never saw significant action in a season, with 404 snaps per season over the past five seasons and three seasons below 60 on PFF in that stretch. The Ravens still have an above average secondary, especially if Marcus Williams and Marlon Humphrey are healthier than a year ago, but that’s not a guarantee, given their injury histories, and the Ravens will almost definitely miss free agent departure Geno Stone.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Ravens lost a lot this off-season, most notably a trio of defensive players and a trio of offensive linemen. They also might not get another MVP season from Lamar Jackson, who also has a history of injury problems that could become a concern again in 2024. They’re starting from a high base point, finishing last season 1st in DVOA, with the best record in the NFL, but the AFC is even more loaded than a year ago with Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow set to be healthier than a year ago, so the Ravens aren’t guaranteed anything this season, not the division, not even a playoff appearance. They should be a playoff team, but they’ll have plenty of competition for the division and for the three wild card spots.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in AFC North

Quarterback

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson burst onto the scene in his first season as a starter in 2019. A polarizing prospect in the 2018 NFL Draft, with unparalleled athleticism, but legitimate accuracy questions, Jackson showed both of those things as a rookie, when he made seven starts and played situationally in the other nine games. Overall, he completed just 58.2% of passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, but he also rushed for 4.73 YPC and 5 touchdowns on 147 carries. However, in year two, he improved drastically as a passer and became the ultimate dual threat, completing 66.1% of his passes for an average of 7.80 YPA, 36 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, while still dominating as a runner, with 1,206 yards and 7 touchdowns on 176 carries (6.85 YPC), receiving a 91.1 PFF grade and leading a talented Ravens team to a 14-2 record, en route to winning the NFL’s MVP award. 

The Ravens fell short in a divisional round loss to the Titans, but that was primarily because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and went 0 for 4 on 4th downs, which tend to be unpredictable week-to-week, so that loss didn’t seem to be cause for long-term concern, especially with Lamar Jackson still being so young and the rest of this team looking like it would provide Jackson with a strong supporting cast for years to come. In the three seasons since Jackson’s dominant 2019 campaign, he has remained good, but he has yet to match the level he reached in his MVP season, totaling 63.7% completion, 7.27 YPA, 59 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, while rushing for 2,536 yards and 12 touchdowns on 404 carries (6.28 YPC) and receiving grades of 81.5, 70.2, and 85.2 respectively from PFF. 

More concerningly, Jackson’s last three seasons have all ended with him getting injured. He was mostly healthy in 2020, with his only missed game being because of COVID, but he suffered a concussion in an eventual post-season defeat to the Bills and then finished the 2021 and 2022 seasons both on injured reserve, missing five games in each season and not making any playoff starts in those two seasons, as Jackson’s absence caused the Ravens to fall out of the post-season in 2021 and Jackson then wasn’t healthy enough to play in the Ravens’ eventual post-season loss to the Bengals in 2022.

Jackson still had a 26-13 regular season record when healthy across those three seasons, as opposed to 3-8 in his absence, so there is no denying his importance to this team, but there were long-term concerns about his ability to stay healthy, given that his playing style exposes him to more hits than most quarterbacks. Beyond that, the track record of dual threat quarterbacks continuing to play at a high level into their 30s is pretty limited, as they tend to be unable to compensate for their declining athleticism as they age, especially if they have a significant injury history. 

Jackson is still only going into his age 26 season, but he was set to be a free agent this off-season, so the Ravens had a big decision to make on whether or not to give him a top of the market long-term deal, despite the aforementioned long-term concerns. The Ravens originally franchise tagged him, but that seemed like a way to buy themselves more time in negotiations rather than a legitimate sign they didn’t believe in him long-term, as teams around the league were very hesitant to make Jackson a long-term offer, knowing the Ravens would almost certainly utilize their right to match any deal signed by their franchise tagged player. Ultimately, the Ravens and Jackson agreed to a 5-year, 260 million dollar deal that makes him the second highest paid quarterback in the league as of this writing and includes 185 million guaranteed, while keeping Jackson under team control through the 2027 season.

Still, even with the Ravens committing to Jackson long-term, they clearly are not satisfied with the results of the past few seasons and felt it was necessary to make some major changes to this offense this off-season. The most notable one was letting go of offensive coordinator Greg Roman, originally credited for building the scheme around Jackson that best utilized his athleticism, and replacing him with Todd Monken, much more of a traditional offensive coordinator. 

Roman’s history of work with mobile quarterbacks is impressive, previously coaching Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor to the best seasons of their careers, but the Ravens felt his scheme had become stale and predictable and, with Jackson getting older and increasingly more injury prone, the Ravens wanted to throw the ball more this season and be less reliant on Jackson taking off and running. Hiring a more traditional, pass-heavy offensive coordinator helps them accomplish that goal.

Whether this proves to be the right approach remains to be seen. While keeping your most important player healthy is obviously a worthwhile goal, Jackson’s rushing ability is what makes him special and makes life easier for him as a passer, as teams usually have to take a player out of coverage to spy him. On top of that, Monken isn’t that accomplished of a play caller at the professional level so there is definitely risk in replacing Roman with him. Jackson will still take off and run more than most quarterbacks this season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the 183 carries per 17 games he had averaged over the past four seasons be cut in half in 2023 and it remains to be seen how that will affect his overall game.

One change the Ravens didn’t make this off-season was trying to find a better backup quarterback than Tyler Huntley, who has been underwhelming in Jackson’s absence over the past two seasons, completing 65.7% of his passes, but for just 5.80 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while receiving mediocre grades of 62.0 and 57.8 respectively from PFF as a passer. Huntley does have an average of 4.79 YPC on 90 carries over those two seasons, but he probably won’t be as good of a scheme fit for the Ravens’ new offense as he was in the Ravens’ old offense because of his limitations as a passer, so it was a little surprising that the Ravens didn’t look that hard for an alternative this off-season. 

This offense has a very high upside if Jackson takes well to the new scheme and stays mostly healthy, but the scheme change could also prove to be a mistake and/or Jackson could miss another significant chunk of time with injury, leaving underwhelming backup Tyler Huntley in a very tough situation. I’d still rather have Lamar Jackson and this Ravens’ quarterback room than most teams’ quarterback rooms, but there are some reasons for concern here.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Aside from the coordinator and scheme change, the biggest change on this offense this off-season were the additions they made to their receiving corps, a necessity for the more pass-heavy style they plan to play this season. Previously, this team didn’t value the wide receiver position highly, as their run-heavy offense focused it’s limited passing game primarily on tight end Mark Andrews, who has averaged 2.21 yards per route run with an average 84/1048/9 slash line per 17 games in four seasons since the 2018 3rd round pick became an every down starter in his second season in the league, perhaps not coincidentally the year Lamar Jackson took a big step forward as a passer. 

Andrews is only in his age 27 season and figures to remain a big part of this offense, but they will need more contributions from their wide receivers, after having just two seasons of 600 yards or more by a wide receiver over the past four seasons respectively, none of which were last season, when their leading wide receiver had just a 48/458/2 slash line. They used first round picks on wide receivers in 2019 and 2021 respectively, taking Marquise Brown and then Rashod Bateman, but Brown was traded last off-season, returning a first round pick after a promising start to his career, in which he had both of the Ravens’ 600+ yard receiving seasons by a wide receiver over the past four seasons, while Bateman has been limited to 1.51 yards per route run and 19 games played in two seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and inconsistency.  

However, Bateman still has upside in his third season in the league if he can stay healthy and the Ravens used another first round pick on a wide receiver in this year’s draft, taking Boston College’s Zay Flowers, another promising young wide receiver, in addition to signing veteran Odell Beckham to a fully guaranteed 1-year, 15 million dollar deal. Bateman and Flowers have upside, but it seems like the Ravens will mostly be relying on Beckham as their top option, given the salary they paid him. 

In his prime, Beckham was a #1 wide receiver, surpassing 1000 yards receiving in five of his first six seasons in the league from 2014-2019, with the exception being a year he mostly missed with injury. However, Beckham has missed a lot more time over the past three seasons, missing 29 of 50 games in the past three seasons with two separate ACL tears, including an entirely lost 2022 season, and he’s only averaged 54/693/7 slash line per 17 games with 1.45 yards per route run when on the field over that stretch. Beckham should be healthier now over a year and a half from his most recent injury, but he’s also now going into his age 31 season and, even if he stays healthy, which is far from a guarantee, his best days are almost definitely behind him. Given that, his contract seems like an overpay, but he should still be a useful contributor to an improved wide receiver group.

The Ravens also still have Devin Duvernay, who was a 3rd round pick in 2020, but has mostly struggled in his career, with 0.95 yards per route run, and they signed veteran journeyman Nelson Agholor, who has lasted into now his 9th season in the league in 2023, but who has also mostly struggled in his career, with 1.19 yards per route run, and who is now going into his age 30 season. They’re not terrible depth options, but both would likely struggle if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart.

At tight end, Andrews will be backed up by Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, a pair of 2022 4th round pick. Likely played 412 snaps last season and had a decent 36/373/3 slash line with 1.39 yards per route run and Kolar also flashed in limited action, playing just 36 snaps, but posting a 74.8 PFF grade and averaging 1.81 yards per route run. Both could see more playing time with blocking specialist Josh Oliver no longer with the team, after a season in which he played 561 snaps and had a 74.0 PFF grade as a blocker, but only averaged 1.02 yards per route run. He’ll be missed as a blocker, but Likely and Kolar are probably better fits for this new pass-heavier offense. The Ravens are still better at tight end than they are at wide receiver, but they’re wide receiver group is improved and at least has more upside than a year ago, while their tight end group is one of the best in the league, making this an above average overall receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Even with this team being run-heavy in recent years, there haven’t been that many carries available for running backs, with Jackson leading the team in rushing in four straight seasons and leading the team in carries in three straight seasons. Last year, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards were supposed to be their top-2 backs, but injuries limited them to 92 carries in 8 games and 87 carries in 9 games respectively, as they struggled to return from injuries that also cost them all of 2021. Edwards and Dobbins missing significant time last season left Kenyan Drake, a veteran journeyman signed right before the start of the season, to lead Ravens running backs in carries with 109. 

Drake took those carries for 4.42 YPC and 4 touchdowns, which doesn’t sound that bad, but life has been much easier for running backs in this offense in recent years because defenses have to worry about Jackson faking the handoff and running with it himself, so those are actually pretty unimpressive numbers. That’s especially true when you compare them to the 4.98 YPC and 5.65 YPC that Edwards and Dobbins averaged respectively last season and the 5.16 YPC and 5.86 YPC that Edwards and Dobbins have averaged in 5 seasons and 3 seasons respectively with the Ravens, on carry totals of 501 and 226 respectively.

Edwards and Dobbins should be healthier this season, with minimal injury history outside of the major injuries they suffered now two years ago, and Drake wasn’t retained as a free agent, but the Ravens did also sign veteran Melvin Gordon as insurance, so Dobbins and Edwards won’t get the backfield totally to themselves. Since Dobbins joined the team as a 2nd round rookie in 2020, he has averaged 9.83 carries per game, as opposed to 9.24 carries per game for Edwards over that stretch and I would expect a similar split of work between the two this season, perhaps with Dobbins earning more work over the former undrafted free agent Edwards. 

Gordon, meanwhile, will likely be the third running back on the depth chart. He was a solid running back in his prime, but he has surpassed 1000 yards rushing just once in 8 seasons in the league, he has just an underwhelming 4.12 YPC average for his career, and that dropped to 3.53 YPC last season, a big concern with Gordon now going into his age 30 season, which tends to be when running backs are close to done. The Ravens aren’t paying him much, as his “1-year, 3.1 million dollar contract” sounds like it is mostly incentives, but for the Ravens’ sake, hopefully Edwards and Dobbins stay healthy and Gordon doesn’t have to be higher than third on the depth chart.

Running backs have never caught many passes from Lamar Jackson, with an average of 52 catches by running backs per season since Lamar Jackson’s first season as the full time starter in 2019 and Dobbins and Edwards have especially been limited in the passing game, with 25 catches in 23 career games and 18 catches in 52 career games respectively. Even with this team becoming more pass-heavy, I don’t expect that to change significantly this season. Neither Edwards (0.62 career yards per route run) nor Dobbins (0.56 career yards per route run) have any real history of success on passing downs and Jackson doesn’t have much need to dump off to running backs in the passing game, given his ability to scramble when he gets in trouble.

Melvin Gordon has more of a track record in the passing game, with a 1.28 yards per route run average for his career, and he will probably be their primary passing down back, which is probably the main reason they signed him, but even he is unlikely to have a significant target share in this offense, which tends to be the case for running backs on offenses with mobile quarterbacks. This is a solid backfield overall, but they will need Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins to be healthier than a year ago and much of the success that running backs have had on this offense in recent years can be credited to the threat of Jackson taking off and running, which also tends to be the case on offenses with mobile quarterbacks.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

With the Ravens investing their resources in re-signing Lamar Jackson long-term and getting him better pass catching options this off-season, they didn’t have enough to keep starting left guard Ben Powers, who signed a 4-year, 51.5 million dollar deal with the Broncos as a free agent this off-season. Powers only had a 62.9 PFF grade last season, but the Ravens didn’t really add a replacement this off-season, only using a 6th round pick on Oregon’s Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, who is unlikely to start as a rookie and almost definitely would struggle if forced to.

The most likely candidate to replace Powers is Ben Cleveland, who went in the 3rd round in 2021, but was mediocre with a 55.8 PFF grade on 367 snaps as a rookie, before playing just 92 snaps in year two last season. He still has upside and could develop into a solid starter, but he’s obviously a projection to a larger role and, even if he develops into a solid starter long-term, he could still struggle in his first season as the starter. 

The Ravens also have veteran Patrick Mekari, a versatile offensive lineman who has never been a season long starter, but who has made 29 starts in 4 seasons in the league, 16 at tackle, 3 at guard, and 10 at center, while receiving grades of 70.5, 66.9, 66.1, and 73.3 from PFF. He’s also a projection to a season-long starting role, but he is probably a safer option than Cleveland because he’s much more experienced and proven. If he doesn’t win the starting job, he will remain a very valuable reserve and figures to see action somewhere at some point, one way or another. The Ravens also have 2022 4th round pick Daniel Faalele as a depth option, though the massive 6-8 380 pound tackle had just a 50.2 PFF grade across 169 rookie year snaps.

The rest of this offensive line should be the same as a year ago, which is a good thing because the Ravens finished last season ranked 2nd on PFF in both team pass blocking grade and team run blocking grade. However, there is some concern with a pair of aging starters who could decline this season, right guard Kevin Zeitler and right tackle Morgan Moses. Both had above average seasons in 2023, receiving PFF grades of 74.0 and 78.1 respectively in 15 starts and 17 starts respectively, and both could struggle to repeat those seasons again in 2023.

Zeitler is the older of the two, going into his age 33 season. He’s been one of the better guards in the league throughout his career, surpassing 70 on PFF in 10 of 11 seasons in the league (166 starts), and, even if he declines, he would likely remain at least a solid starter, but his age is a concern. Moses, meanwhile, is going into his age 32 season and has made 130 starts in the past eight seasons as a starter, surpassing 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 70. He also likely would remain at least a solid starter even if he declined, but, like Zeitler, I would expect him to be at least a little worse than a year ago.

Fortunately, the other two starters on this offensive line are younger and both should have strong seasons again in 2023. Center Tyler Linderbaum was only a rookie last season, but the 25th overall pick finished as PFF’s 6th ranked center overall with a 74.7 PFF grade. He has the upside to develop into one of the best centers in the league long-term and, even if he doesn’t take another step forward in year two, I would expect him to at least remain at least an above average starter.

Left tackle Ronnie Stanley is also a former first round pick, selected 6th overall in 2016. The early part of his career was very promising, as he finished his first four seasons in the league with PFF grades of 74.8, 75.1, 77.5, and 88.5 respectively, while making 56 total starts, with his 2019 grade ranking 3rd among offensive tackles that season, but injuries have limited him to just 18 games in three seasons since. He’s still played pretty well when on the field, including a 70.9 PFF grade in 11 games (602 snaps) last season and the worst of his injuries seem to be behind him, but he’s yet to come close to his career best 2019 season and there’s a good chance he never repeats that season, even if he manages to stay healthier going forward. 

Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Stanley should remain at least an above average starter when on the field, but there’s a better than average chance that he ends up missing more time at some point. This is still a strong offensive line, but I wouldn’t expect them to be quite as good as last year, having lost left guard Ben Powers and with a pair of starters on the right side of this offensive line being on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Ravens had a strong defense a year ago, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA, which is especially impressive when you consider they also had the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury on that side of the ball. The Ravens should be healthier on defense this season, but they did lose some key players this off-season, so they won’t necessarily be better as a result of being healthier. One key loss this off-season is interior defender Calais Campbell, who had a PFF grade on 548 snaps last season, playing well both as a run defender and a pass rusher (5.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate). 

The Ravens do get Michael Pierce back from injury, after he played just 91 snaps in 3 games last season, while the rest of this interior defender group should be the same as a year ago, with Justin Madubuike (655 snaps), Broderick Washington (482 snaps), Travis Jones (322 snaps), and Brent Urban (298 snaps) all remaining on this roster. Durability has been an issue throughout Pierce’s career, as the big 6-0 355 pounder has never played more than 594 snaps per game in a season, and it’s especially been a problem in recent years, as he sat out the 2020 COVID season and then has been limited to just 11 games over the past two seasons since returning. 

Pierce has played the run at a high level throughout his career, surpassing 80 in run defense grade on PFF in three of six active seasons in the league and surpassing 70 in five of six seasons, including a 74.3 PFF grade last season, but he also has a pretty impressive 7.5% pressure rate, so he isn’t just a big run defender. He’s now going into his age 31 season and hasn’t been quite as good in recent years as he was earlier in his career, even when on the field, which, coupled with all of the time he has missed in recent years, is a concern, but if he can stay relatively healthy this season, he should remain at least a useful rotational player, with the upside for more if he can stay healthy and turn back the clock.

The rest of this bunch are mostly young players and, because of that, they have the upside to be better this year than a year ago. Justin Madubuike was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has mostly been a middling player throughout his career, but he’s seen his snap count increase from 259 to 482 to 655 in his three seasons in the league and he’s a pretty well-rounded player, providing solid run defense, while also contributing a decent 6.6% pressure rate. He should continue playing a similar snap count in 2023 as he did in 2022, which should lead this position group again, and, still only in his age 26 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if 2023 was his best season yet.

Travis Jones was a 3rd round pick last year and flashed some potential as a rookie, albeit on just 322 snaps. Still, he should play more snaps this season and has a good chance to take a step forward in year two. Broderick Washington is the least impressive of the bunch, going in just the 5th round in 2020 and struggling on snap counts of 161 and 293 respectively in the first two seasons of his career, but he took a step forward in 2022, with a 69.5 PFF grade on 482 snaps. He might not have a high upside, he could easily remain at least a useful rotational player.

Brent Urban isn’t young, but he also could have a role as a deep rotational player. He was a useful reserve early in his career, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three of the past four seasons, while averaging just 268 snaps per season and maxing out at 370 snaps in a season. Now in his age 32 season, he’s not even a lock to make this roster, but he could see some action if he makes the team. Losing Calais Campbell hurts this group and, while Michael Pierce should be healthier, he’s also on the wrong side of 30 with an extensive injury history, but the Ravens do at least have some promising young players at this position.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

At the edge defender position, the Ravens lost Justin Houston, who only played 397 snaps last year, but who had a 73.6 PFF grade and who especially excelled as a pass rusher, with 9.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate. Like Calais Campbell, Houston is an older player, going into his age 34 season, and the Ravens also have some promising young players at this position, so they didn’t feel the need to bring Houston back. The Ravens also didn’t bring back Jason Pierre-Paul, who played 524 snaps last season and who was also heading into his age 34 season in 2023, but he struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade and a 6.8% pressure rate, so he won’t be missed, especially given the young talent they have at this position.

Odafe Oweh was their first round pick in 2021 and he had a promising rookie season, with a 67.9 PFF grade on 615 snaps, while totaling 5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate, but he regressed in a pretty big way in year two, falling to a 56.8 PFF grade on 633 snaps, while totaling just 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate. Oweh is only in his age 25 season and still has a big upside, so I would expect him to bounce back at least somewhat in year three and it’s possible he could end up having his best year yet this season.

David Ojabo was a second round pick in 2022, but he almost definitely would have been a first round pick, possibly a top-15 selection, if not for a torn achilles that he suffered during the pre-draft process. Ojabo returned to play 21 defensive snaps late last season, but, other than that, his whole rookie season was lost. However, now a full year and a half removed from the injury, Ojabo could easily show why he was seen as such a good prospect before getting hurt. He’s obviously unproven, but his return to health could be big for this position group.

The Ravens should also get a healthier year from Tyus Bowser, who tore his achilles in week 18 of the 2021 season and, as a result, was limited to 355 mediocre snaps in 9 games in 2022. Bowser only had a 56.4 PFF grade last season, while totaling just a 7.7% pressure rate, but he had three straight seasons in the 70s prior to his injury, while averaging 587 snaps per season over that stretch. Also an above average run defender, Bowser totaled 14 sacks, 24 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate while playing all 49 possible games during those three seasons and, now another year removed from the injury, only in his age 28 season, Bowser has obvious bounce back potential. 

Boswer might not bounce all the way back to his pre-injury form, but he easily could and, even if he doesn’t, he will almost definitely give them more than he gave them a year ago. The Ravens also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Mississippi’s Tavius Robinson, who figures to at least have a deep reserve role at a position group that has promise, but that is also pretty thin and that doesn’t have a lot of experience overall, hence why a raw mid-round rookie is expected to have a role, with the rest of this position group behind him consisting of former undrafted free agents with no real NFL experience.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Ravens don’t have any big off-season departures or players returning from injury at the off ball linebacker position, but they should get more out of every down linebacker Roquan Smith, who only played 533 snaps in 9 games last season for the Ravens because he was only acquired at the trade deadline. The Ravens gave up a second round pick and eventually gave Smith a 5-year, 100 million dollar extension (highest average annual value among off ball linebackers) to keep him ahead of his pending free agency this off-season and prior to joining the Ravens he had been a solid, but unspectacular player. However, the former 8th overall pick broke out in his new home, posting a 84.7 PFF grade in his half season with the Ravens to give him a 70.6 PFF grade on the season, 28th best among off ball linebackers.

Smith is a one-year wonder, or even a half-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, but he’s always had a huge upside, he’s still only going into his age 26 season, and, even if he regresses, he should still have a good chance to remain an above average every down player. Smith’s presence cost fellow starting linebacker Patrick Queen some playing time, but Queen’s shift in role seemed to benefit him, as the 2020 1st round pick had a 76.7 PFF grade in the 9 games he played alongside Smith, as opposed to 29.7, 43.5, and 59.8 in his first season in the league, second season in the league, and the first half of third season in the league respectively. 

That second half improvement wasn’t enough for the Ravens to pick up Queen’s 5th year option, which would have guaranteed him 12.722 million in 2024, and the Ravens may have found his long-term replacement in the draft in Clemson’s Trenton Simpson, who they selected in the third round, but Queen should still remain a starter in 2023 and, only in his age 24 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he permanently turned a corner as a player and remained at least a solid starter. 

Simpson, meanwhile, will likely only play a reserve role, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. 2020 3rd round pick Malik Harrison is also a reserve option. He’s been unspectacular in that role in his first three seasons in the league, on an average of just 228 snaps per season, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could still have untapped upside, and the Ravens are unlikely to need much out of him in a relatively deep position group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

In the secondary, the Ravens lost starting cornerback Marcus Peters (734 snaps in 13 games) and starting safety Chuck Clark (1,091 snaps in 17 games) this off-season, after both had solid seasons with PFF grades of 67.7 and 66.0 respectively. Peters will likely be replaced by free agent addition Rock Ya-Sin, who has been solid for most of his 4-year career, finishing in the 60s on PFF in three of those seasons, but who has also missed 14 games with injury and has never been a full-time starter, only starting 38 of his 52 games played, with a maximum of 13 starts in a season, coming back in his rookie season in 2019. The former 2nd round pick is only in his age 27 season and could still develop into at least a capable starter, but he’s not as reliable as Peters and there’s a reason he was available for only a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal. 

Assuming he wins the job, Ya-Sin would start opposite #1 cornerback Marlon Humphrey, a 2017 first round pick who has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league and probably the best player on this Ravens defense. Humphrey wasn’t a full-time starter in his first two seasons in the league and missed 7 games with injury in his next three seasons combined, before finally making all 17 starts for the first time in 2022, but he’s finished in the 70s on PFF in five of six seasons, including a 76.7 PFF grade last season that ranked 14th among cornerbacks. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season, though it’s worth noting he’s probably a slightly higher injury risk than most players and might not play all 17 games for the second year in a row.

To replace Clark at safety, the Ravens will move second year player Kyle Hamilton, who was mostly a slot cornerback as a rookie, back to his natural position of safety, where he will play full-time as a starter next to Marcus Williams. Hamilton was the 14th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and flashed a ton of potential with a 82.3 PFF grade on 547 snaps as a rookie, so, even though he’s a projection to a full-time role, he could easily be an above average starter, with the upside to be one of the best safeties in the league long-term. 

Marcus Williams has the talent to be among the best safeties in the league as well and the Ravens should get a healthier year out of him after he missed seven games a year ago. Williams had a 73.9 PFF grade when on the field and that was still solid, but that actually was the worst of his 6-year career, during which he has surpassed 80 on PFF in three seasons. He had also only missed five games with injury in the five seasons prior to last and, only in his age 27 season, he should be healthier and has bounce back potential in 2023. He and Hamilton have the upside to be among the best safety duos in the league.

Replacing Hamilton as the primary slot cornerback is the biggest question in this secondary. The Ravens could continue to run a lot of 3-safety looks in sub packages, with Hamilton retaining his old role as the primary slot cornerback and one of Geno Stone or Brandon Stephens stepping in the other safety role, or they could use free agent acquisition Arthur Maulet, 2022 4th round pick Jalyn Armour-Davis, or 5th round rookie Kelly Kyu if they want to use more of a traditional 3-cornerback look. 

Geno Stone is probably their best option. He was only a 7th round pick in 2020 and played just 221 nondescript snaps in his first two seasons in the league, but he wasn’t bad in that limited action and took a step forward in year three, finishing with a 71.4 PFF grade on 450 snaps. He’s still pretty unproven, but could easily remain a useful sub package player. Brandon Stephens, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and might have more upside than Stone, but so far he’s struggled throughout his career, with PFF grades of 53.0 and 52.5 respectively on snap counts of 742 and 452 respectively.

If the Ravens want to use a more traditional 3-cornerback look, Arthur Maulet is probably their best option, though that’s mostly by default. Maulet has played 404 snaps per season over the past four seasons, mostly as a slot specialist, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in three of those four seasons, including a 56.5 PFF grade on 481 snaps in 2022, and now he heads into his age 30 season, so he will almost definitely remain a below average option. 

Armour-Davis entered the league with significant potential and could still develop into a useful player long-term, but he was horrendous with a 28.2 PFF grade on 50 rookie year snaps and has a long way to go towards even being a capable 3rd cornerback. Meanwhile, the rookie Kelly Kyu will almost definitely be overmatched if forced into a significant role in year one. This secondary has good top end talent with top cornerback Marlon Humphrey and top safety Marcus Williams both being among the best in the league at their respective positions and with the promising young Kyle Hamilton possibly on his way to being that as well, but depth is at least somewhat of a concern, especially in sub packages.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Ravens have been among the best teams in the league over the past four seasons when they have starting quarterback Lamar Jackson healthy, but that has increasingly not been the case late in the season when it counts. In an effort to keep Jackson healthier longer as he ages, the Ravens are changing their offensive philosophy in a significant way this off-season. It’s a plan with a lot of potential, if Jackson can stay healthier and become a more productive passer, but it’s also a gamble, considering how well the old scheme fit Jackson’s skill set. 

This should remain one of the better teams in the league as long as Jackson is healthy, but there’s risk here as well, given the scheme change and Jackson’s injury history, and the Ravens play in the loaded AFC, where other teams seem like safer bets to go on a long run to the Super Bowl. A playoff spot seems likely at the very least, barring catastrophe, but it won’t be a surprise at all if they suffer another first or second round exit. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 3rd in AFC North