Ravens

Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens, Uncategorized

Last week: 12 (+0)

Record: 3-3

Despite the loss of veteran leaders Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, the Ravens have not missed a beat defensively. The value of Lewis and Reed was mostly intangible towards the end of their time with the Ravens, as they became ineffective on the field. Guys like Daryl Smith and James Ihedigbo have filled their voids very well and the return to full health for Lardarius Webb and Terrell Suggs, as well as the addition of Elvis Dumveril, have made this one of the best stop units in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains on 65% of opportunities and stifling Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week. Unfortunately, they lost last week because their offense remains incompetent. They move the chains on 67% of chances on the season and there was a point against the Packers where they had 4 first downs, 9 punts, 1 turnover, and a failed 4th down. Ray Rice and the running game have randomly become awful, forcing Joe Flacco to do more of the work, despite missing 2 of his best receivers from last year.

Week 6 Studs

LE Arthur Jones

LOLB Elvis Dumervil

Week 6 Duds

RB Ray Rice

SS James Ihedigbo

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Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens, Uncategorized

Last week: 13 (+1)

Record: 3-2

The Ravens may just be 3-2 right now, but they’ve faced a very tough schedule thus far, with their game against the Packers being their 4th game in 6 where they’ve been the underdog. If they can hold their ground at home (where they are 25-3 since 2010), they’d be 4-2 and 7 of their final 10 games they’ll probably be favorites in. This team is in very good position to make it back to the playoffs.

Week 5 Studs

RT Michael Oher

MLB Josh Bynes

Week 5 Duds

FB Vonta Leach

LT Bryant McKinnie

LG AQ Shipley

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Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Packers, Ravens, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens have been one of the premier home teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, going 25-3 at home since 2010. They’re outscore opponents by about a point per game on the road in that time period and by about 11 points per game at home. As a result, they’ve only been underdogs at home a grand total of three times in that time frame, losing once at home to Peyton Manning and the Broncos last season and then winning once at home as dogs last year against the Giants, after they had previously lost 3 straight, and winning against the Texans earlier this season. Those two wins came by a total of 40 points. Given that, I don’t think the Packers deserve to be favored in Baltimore.

Maybe they did a week ago, but losing Clay Matthews really hurts, as he’ll miss at least a month after undergoing surgery to repair a broken thumb. Losing Matthews doesn’t just hurt because he’s one of the top defensive players in the NFL, but because of their suspect depth behind him. Nate Palmer and Andy Mulumba, 6th round and undrafted rookies respectively, are their top reserves at the position. That’s as big of a downgrade as you can possibly get and it comes it a premium position.

Given that, I think these teams are pretty evenly matched. The Packers are moving the chains on 80% of chances, while allowing their opponents to do so on 75% of chances. The Ravens, meanwhile, are moving the chains on 69% of chances, while allowing their opponents to do so on 65% of chances. We’re getting at least 5 or 6 points of line value here even before you take Baltimore’s home field advantage into account.

The Ravens are also in a very good spot in terms of trends. Since 1989, teams are 37-11 ATS as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional road favorites. The Ravens will go to Pittsburgh next week, while they will almost certainly be divisional road favorites. I really like the Ravens’ chances of protecting their home field and pulling the upset here.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: High

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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)

The Ravens have been a completely different team this year at home as compared to on the road. At home, they’ve beaten both Cleveland and Houston, but on the road, they were blown out in Denver and lost in Buffalo. This is nothing new. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 point per game.

They’re on the road here again, but they have a better chance of covering and winning here for several reasons. First, they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are more used to being on the road. Even the Ravens, as much as they’ve struggled on the road, are 6-3 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2010. On top of that, teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in that situation as well, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

The Ravens also essentially get two players added to their team. Eugene Monroe comes in from Jacksonville. He probably doesn’t have the playbook fully down yet, but he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and an upgrade on an aging Bryant McKinnie. Ray Rice also should be much closer to 100% this week. He only got 5 carries last week in a loss to Buffalo because of his injury situation and the Ravens weren’t able to establish the run at all. He also didn’t catch a pass. They don’t have enough weapons to get away with not involving Rice in the passing game. He should have a bigger impact this week. I don’t like taking the Ravens on the road, but they should be the right side.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens, Uncategorized

Last week: 13

Record: 2-2

The Ravens’ loss in Buffalo isn’t shocking. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 points per game. The addition of Eugene Monroe at left tackle really helps this team going forward and they still have a very good chance of winning the division. Even at 2-2, they are currently tied for the division lead.

Week 4 Studs

RT Mitchell Schwartz

SS James Ihedigbo

Week 4 Duds

QB Joe Flacco

C Gino Gradkowski

LOLB Courtney Upshaw

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Jacksonville Jaguars trade OT Eugene Monroe to the Baltimore Ravens

stevenlourie Jaguars, Ravens, Uncategorized

Trade for Jaguars: The Jaguars just sold a franchise left tackle for pennies on the dollar (multiple 3rd day picks). Ordinarily, that’s an awful deal, but Monroe was heading into free agency this off-season and the Jaguars are so awful. It’s totally believable that they knew they wouldn’t be able to re-sign him after the season and it’s not like they’re doing anything this year. Luke Joeckel, the 2nd overall pick, looks to be their left tackle of the future. Still, this is barely more than they would have gotten in compensatory picks if they had lost him in free agency and it’s a big loss for the fan base. The Joeckel pick looks like just a horizontal move at this point.

Grade: C

Trade for Ravens: This is absolute steal for the Ravens. Monroe doesn’t get a lot of attention in Jacksonville, but he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and a huge upgrade over Bryant McKinnie, both short-term and, if they want him, long-term. He was ProFootballFocus’ 15th ranked offensive tackle in 2012 and 6th ranked offensive tackle in 2011. He and right tackle Michael Oher will be free agents this off-season, so the Ravens will have some decisions to make, but they’re competitive enough now to be buyers, especially at such a cheap price.

Grade: A

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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bills, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)

The Ravens’ season certainly got off to a rough start week 1 in Denver, as Peyton Manning tied an NFL record for touchdowns against them in a 49-27 loss. However, they bounced back at home over the past 2 weeks with a 14-6 win over Cleveland and a 30-9 win over Houston. Now this week they have to go back on the road, where life has not been as kind to them as at home over the past few seasons. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10.1 points per game and 17-14 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1.1 points per game. They’re also 2-5 ATS as non-divisional road favorites in their last 7 instances.

Their offense is still struggling to move the ball. Sure, they beat Houston 30-9, but they needed 14 points off of returns to achieve that final score. The two teams were pretty even in terms of first downs, total yards of offense, and punts despite the large final margin. They could get Ray Rice back from injury this week, but he won’t be 100%. I don’t know how much of an upgrade a limited Ray Rice is over Bernard Pierce, one of the better backups in the NFL. The two will probably split carries.

Their offensive woes go back longer than a week too. They are converting a below average 72% of 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs. Fortunately, as bad as their offense is right now, their defense seems to have turned around 180 degrees from a disappointing start in Denver week 1 as their new players have gelled together. However, I don’t know if I trust the Ravens to cover as 3 point favorites on the road here in Buffalo. All of the Bills’ injuries in the secondary, especially if Leodis McKelvin doesn’t play, make it hard to take the Bills here and I wish this line was a little higher, but I think they are the right side. I’m just not confident.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens, Uncategorized

Last week: 10 (-3)

The Ravens blew out the Texans last week, but they still have problems moving the football, as 14 of their 30 points came directly off returns. The two teams were pretty even in terms of first downs, total yards of offense, and punts so it was much more even than the 30-9 final score would suggest. Fortunately, as bad as their offense is right now, their defense seems to have turned around 180 degrees from a disappointing start in Denver week 1 as their new players have gelled together. With Elvis Dumervil in and Terrell Suggs healthy, their pass rush and possibly their whole defense, is better than it was last regular season.

Week 3 Studs

LOLB Elvis Dumervil

SS James Ihedibgo

Week 3 Duds

LT Bryant McKinnie

RT Michael Oher

C Gino Gradkowski

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Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens, Uncategorized

Last week: 11

The AFC North remains clear as mud after 2 weeks. Cincinnati and Baltimore are the only two teams that have won games and between them I’d still pick my pre-season pick of Baltimore because of Cincinnati’s recent inability to beat playoff caliber opponents. They don’t seem to be much of a Super Bowl contender, however, in a conference mostly devoid of them.

Week 2 Studs

QB Joe Flacco

LOLB Elvis Dumervil

ROLB Terrell Suggs

DT Haloti Ngata

Week 2 Duds

RB Ray Rice

LT Bryant McKinnie

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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Ravens, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

The Ravens have been one of the premier home teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, going 24-3 at home since 2010. As a result, they’ve only been underdogs at home a grand total of twice in that time frame, losing once at home to Peyton Manning and the Broncos last season and then winning once at home as dogs last year against the Giants, after they had previously lost 3 straight. Given that, I don’t think the Texans deserve to be favored in Baltimore.

The Texans have not played well thus far this year, barely beating both Tennessee and San Diego. They won 12 games last year, but were not nearly as good as that would have suggested. Their Pythagorean Expectation was that of a 10 win team as they went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They also faced a very easy schedule, recovered an unsustainable high percentage of fumbles that hit the ground, and played their worst football down the stretch, which might have carried over somewhat into this season. They finished last year 11th in overall DVOA and 19th in weighted DVOA, which puts a higher weight on their later games.

That’s not the type of team that deserves to be favored in Baltimore, especially since left tackle Duane Brown, one of the best in the NFL, probably won’t play. Ray Rice, meanwhile, won’t suit up for the Ravens, but it’s much easier to replace him with talented backup Bernard Pierce than to replace one of the game’s premier blindside protectors with Derek Newton.

The trends also favor the Ravens. They are home dogs here before being road favorites next week in Buffalo. Teams are 55-34 ATS since 2002 in that situation. Meanwhile, the Texans are road favorites before being home dogs next week when Seattle comes to town. Teams are 37-62 ATS in that situation since 1989 as long as the game is non-divisional.

Put it all together and you get that teams are 6-2 ATS since 1989 as home dogs before being road favorites when their opponent will next be home dogs. I know it’s a very small sample size, but I think the fact that this is only the 9th time this situation has happened in 24 years is telling. The Ravens will be completely focused on this game, while the Texans could be caught looking forward to what they might see as a Super Bowl preview against Seattle next week. There’s a very good chance that Baltimore takes advantage and wins at home. They’re a great home team and Houston is a comparable, but not superior opponent.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Houston Texans 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Baltimore +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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