Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) at Green Bay Packers (6-6)

Typically, the Seahawks are unstoppable in the second half of the season, going 33-10-1 ATS since Pete Carroll’s first season in 2011 in games 9-16 of the regular season. This year, they got off to a strong start, covering in games 9 and 10, but then they got embarrassed in their 11th game of the season, losing 14-5 as 5.5 point favorites in Tampa Bay. They bounced back in a huge way last week, blowing out a banged up Carolina team 40-7, but that game might have been a case of winning the battle losing the war, as the Seahawks have lost safety Earl Thomas, one of the best in the game, for the season with a broken leg. It’s not that the Seahawks can’t win the Super Bowl without Thomas, especially in a year where all of the top teams have glaring flaws, but it certainly becomes a lot more difficult of a task for the Seahawks and it takes a lot of the air out of last week’s big win.

Despite that, this line has actually shifted from 2.5 in favor of Seattle to 3 in the past week. That might not seem like a huge line movement, but it’s pretty significant considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. We’re getting good value with the Packers at home, just the fourth time in Aaron Rodgers’ career that he’s been a home underdog (2-1 ATS). The Packers are also in a great spot, going to Chicago next week to face the lowly Bears. Home underdogs are 79-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites, which the Packers almost certainly will be next week. The Seahawks have an easy game against the Rams on deck, but it’s in 4 days, which is tough. Favorites are just 57-83 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. Normally I bet on the Seahawks in the second half of the season, but I like the Packers a lot if you can get them as field goal underdogs.

Green Bay Packers 27 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-3-1)

Typically, the Seahawks are a very good team in the second half of the season, going 32-10-1 ATS since Pete Carroll took over (since 2011) in games 9-16 of the regular season, but they fell flat on their faces last week in Tampa Bay, losing 14-5 as 6 point road favorites in an embarrassing offensive performance. As a result, the Seahawks fell to 14th in first down rate differential. For comparison, their opponents here, the Carolina Panthers, rank 15th in that metric, just one spot behind them. The Panthers may be 4-7, but 5 of their 7 losses have come by a field goal or less, so they could easily be 7-4, 8-3, or even 9-2 if a few plays went their way.

The good news for the Seahawks is that they are significantly healthier this week than last week. Center Justin Britt, cornerback DeShawn Shead, and safety Earl Thomas return from one-game absences, while Michael Bennett returns after missing 6 games with a knee injury. Thomas and Bennett are two of the best defensive players in the league, while Shead and Britt are both having breakout years at cornerback and center respectively. Now healthy, they could easily put last week’s loss behind them and continue on what looked like another Seattle second half run, after they covered in big wins in games 9 and 10. Conversely, the Panthers are the ones who enter this game very banged up. Top defensive player Luke Kuechly will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion and will be joined on the sidelines by safety Kurt Coleman. Offensively, the Panthers are down to a 3rd string center and a 3rd string left tackle upfront.

That being said, this line is 7, so it’s hard for me to be confident in Seattle at all, especially with the Panthers in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 140-105 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 111-72 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 234-248 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.83 points per game, as opposed to 331-464 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.01 points per game. Seattle is the pick, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Carolina Panthers 16

Pick against the spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (7-2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)

The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 32-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived (including 2-0 ATS so far this season). This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet for Russell Wilson, as he’s completed 66% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 67 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in the second half of the regular season in his career. Considering how well this organization is run from top to bottom, it doesn’t surprise me they get better as the season goes on. It also wouldn’t surprise me at all if they went on another second half run. Russell Wilson has shaken off early season injuries and struggles and now is playing the kind of football we’re used to from him.

I’ve made big bets on the Seahawks in back-to-back weeks and I wanted to make another big bet on them this week as 6 point favorites in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers, despite a 5-5 record, rank 26th in first down rate differential. They also haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years, going just 19-39 ATS at home since 2009, including just 1-4 ATS this season. However, the Seahawks come into this game pretty banged up, which obviously hurts their chances of covering.

Defensive end Michael Bennett, who looked early in the week like he had a shot to return this week, will miss his 5th straight game with injury, while safety Earl Thomas, who injured his hamstring in last week’s win over Philadelphia, has also been ruled out. Those are two of their best defensive players. On the offensive side of the ball, the Seahawks will be without center Justin Britt, who has been their best offensive lineman this season. As long as the line is under 7, it’s still worth a bet on Seattle, but this would have been a bigger play if the Seahawks were healthier.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1)

The Seahawks pulled a big upset last week, winning as 8 point underdogs in New England. Considering how well the Seahawks have played in the 2nd half of the season in recent years, that big upset shouldn’t have come as a big surprise. The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 31-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived. This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet for Russell Wilson, as he’s completed 66% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 66 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in the second half of the regular season in his career.

Considering how well this organization is run from top to bottom, it doesn’t surprise me they get better as the season goes on. It also wouldn’t surprise me at all if they went on another second half run. Safety Kam Chancellor has returned to the lineup, while quarterback Russell Wilson is much healthier after playing through early season injuries. The Seahawks also get running back Thomas Rawls back from injury this week. He’ll split touches out of the backfield with last week’s breakout star, rookie 3rd round pick CJ Prosise.

They’re also in a great spot here with only a trip to Tampa Bay on deck. The early line has them as 6.5 point road favorites. Favorites of 6 or more are 89-50 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again. With no distractions on the horizon, the Seahawks should be able to be completely focused for an inferior opponent this week. The Eagles aren’t a bad team, but the line isn’t that high either (6.5). The Seahawks could be about to go on another late season run, so I have confidence that they’ll win by at least a touchdown.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Philadelphia Eagles 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1) at New England Patriots (7-1)

Despite a strong 5-2-1 record, the Seahawks have been underwhelming through their first 8 games of the season. Their tie would have been a loss if not for a number of fluky special teams mistakes by the Cardinals, while their only 2 wins by more than 6 points have come against the Jets and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the league. Despite having the 3rd easiest schedule in the league thus far, in terms of opponents’ record, the Seahawks rank just 11th in first down rate differential.

There are reasons to be optimistic for the Seahawks though. For one, they get safety Kam Chancellor back from injury, who they really missed during his 4-game absence. Defensive end Michael Bennett remains out, a huge absence, but at least Chancellor returns to a defense that has still played well despite players missing time. Their offense has been where they’ve had problems, thanks largely to a weak offensive line and a banged up Russell Wilson. However, they looked as good offensively last week as they did all season, as Wilson gets closer to 100%.

The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 30-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived. This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet for Russell Wilson, as he’s completed 65.9% of his passes for an average of 8.69 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in the second half of the regular season in his career. Considering how well this organization is run from top to bottom, it doesn’t surprise me they get better as the season goes on. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they went on another second half run.

Despite that, they are 8 point underdogs here in New England. For context, the Seahawks have lost just 2 games in Russell Wilson’s career by more than 8 points, including playoffs, a stretch of 82 games total. Those 2 losses were by 9 points and 10 points, so they weren’t exactly blown out in those games either. The public seems to expect a New England beatdown of the Seahawks, as most of the money is on the favorite this week, but the public is often wrong and always loses money in the long run. This figures to be a close game.

The Patriots are probably the best team in the league right now, given that they are basically completely healthy, but they have also played a very easy schedule, the 2nd easiest in the league in terms of win/loss record. They are in a good spot coming off of a bye, with an easy trip to San Francisco on deck after this one. Touchdown favorites are 56-30 ATS since 2012 before being touchdown favorites again, which the Patriots definitely will be next week against the lowly 49ers. At the same time, this is also a tough spot for them, as it’s a night game against a west coast team. Because of how human sleep cycles work, teams that are used to the western time zone have a major advantage at night against teams used to the eastern time zone, covering about 2/3rds of the time. I thought about making this my Pick of the Week and there’s enough here for me to be confident in the Seahawks as underdogs of 7 or more.

New England Patriots 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle +8

Confidence: High

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Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-4) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1)

The Seahawks are 4-2-1, but rank just 14th in first down percentage differential. Their defense has been great, as they’ve allowed the 5th lowest first down percentage against, but their offense has been a major problem, as they rank just 29th in first down percentage. This is despite the fact that they’ve played arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far, as they rank dead last in opponent’s strength of schedule thus far this season. Their only two wins by more than 2 points came against the Jets and 49ers, two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Bills are 4-4 and far from a pushover, entering 17th in first down percentage differential; they’re an obvious step up from the 49ers and Jets.

The Bills also enter this game much healthier than the Seahawks. The Bills are still missing talented wide receiver Sammy Watkins with a long-term injury and will be without talented defensive tackle Marcell Dareus this week, after he reinjured himself in his season debut last week, but neither of those guys have been on the field much at all this season, so the Bills have largely been playing without them thus far. They also get back starting running back LeSean McCoy, after he missed one game and was limited in another with a hamstring pull.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are missing two of their best defensive players again, as defensive end Michael Bennett and safety Kam Chancellor remain out after missing last week’s loss in New Orleans. Their defense was far from as good as normal last week without those two. Given how bad their offense has been this season, the Seahawks can’t afford to be without those two key players on defense. Given their injury situation, this line is way too high at 7. The Seahawks are also in a tough spot, as they have to turn around and go to New England next week, just 6 days after this relatively easier Monday Night Football matchup. The early line has them as 7.5 point underdogs in New England and teams are just 49-87 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs since 2002. The Bills are my Pick of the Week at 7 and I like them even if this line moves down to 6 or 6.5.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (4-1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)

The Seahawks are 4-1-1, but have been underwhelming this season. Their defense has been fantastic once again, entering this game 2nd in first down percentage allowed, but their offense ranks just 29th in first down percentage and is coming off of a horrendous offensive showing in last week’s tie in Arizona. The Seahawks’ offense moved the ball a little bit better in overtime, but didn’t cross midfield until a late 4th quarter blocked punt that set up their only score of regulation. They picked up a first down on just 11 of 57 offensive plays in the game. Their defense played incredible, but the Seahawks still needed a number of Arizona special teams mistakes to even get the game to overtime.

The Saints are basically the opposite of the Seahawks, as they have a great offense (3rd in first down percentage), but a terrible defense (32nd in first down percentage allowed). The Seahawks rank 7th in first down percentage differential, while the Saints rank 22nd, but the gap between 1st and 7th is bigger than the gap between 7th and 22nd. There are a bunch of teams bunched up in the middle this season and the Seahawks’ statistical advantages can be largely explained by the fact that they’ve played a pretty easy schedule thus far. The Cardinals were a tough opponent last week, but they didn’t look good against them. Atlanta and Miami both played them tough in Seattle. And their other 3 games came against the Jets, 49ers, and Rams, who are among the worst teams in the league. Their .393 combined opponent record is the easiest strength of schedule in the league.

The Seahawks also come into this game very banged up. Russell Wilson has clearly not been healthy all year, dealing with a number of different injuries behind the worst offensive line in the league. Their offensive line gets even worse this week as the Seahawks will be starting undrafted rookie George Fant at left tackle in place of the injured Bradley Sowell. Sowell is not good at all, but Fant is a collegiate basketball player who hasn’t started a game of football since 8th grade. He played some tight end in college, but figures to be wildly overmatched in his first NFL defense.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Seahawks will be without safety Kam Chancellor and defensive end Michael Bennett, two of the best defensive players in the league. It doesn’t help matters that the Seahawks are coming off of playing 5 quarters in a tie. Teams are just 5-11 ATS after a tie since 1989, as teams are predictably tired after such a long, hard fought game. This line is way too high at 3 in favor of the visiting Seahawks. With the Seahawks as banged up as they are, I’d argue the Saints should be favored in this game, but we’re getting a full field goal; 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Saints are also in a great spot, with an easy trip to San Francisco on deck; they don’t have any upcoming distractions on the schedule. Home underdogs are 76-43 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. The Saints are my Pick of the Week at 3 and I’d still take them at 2 or 2.5.

New Orleans Saints 27 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)

The Seahawks have a better record than the Cardinals, but the Cardinals have a first down percentage differential of 7.67% (best in the NFL) and a point differential of +49 (6th best in the NFL), while the Seahawks have a first down percentage differential of 3.47% (4th best in the NFL) and a point differential of +27 (10th best in the NFL). That’s despite the fact that the Seahawks have had arguably the easiest schedule in the league thus far. They’ve played the 49ers, Rams, Jets, and Dolphins, 4 of the worst teams in the NFL, and won by just 2 last week at home against the Falcons, easily their toughest opponent of the season. Arizona is even tougher and this time the game is on the road.

The Cardinals are without wide receiver John Brown, while quarterback Carson Palmer is reportedly less than 100% with a hamstring injury, but the Seahawks are missing safety Kam Chancellor, easily the biggest absence in this game. Despite that, this line is even. Considering the Cardinals are at least as good as the Seahawks, if not better, this line should be at least 3 in favor of the home team Arizona Cardinals. We’re getting great line value with the Cardinals, who have arguably the best defense in the NFL.

The Cardinals are also in a great spot coming off of a Monday Night Football 28-3 blowout victory over the Jets, as teams are 35-16 ATS since 2002 off of a Monday Night Football win by 21 or more. The Seahawks are in a good spot too though, with an easy road game in New Orleans on deck, while the Cardinals next travel to Carolina for an NFC Championship rematch from a year ago. The early line has the Seahawks as 5.5 point road favorites in New Orleans and teams are 81-57 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites of 4 or more. Still, the Cardinals are the pick here as long as the line stays under a field goal.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against the spread: Arizona PK

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

The Falcons have started an impressive 4-1, with wins over Oakland, Carolina, and Denver, three tough football teams. Last week, they beat the Broncos by a touchdown in Denver, as 4 point underdogs. This week, they’re 6.5 point underdogs in Seattle. The Seahawks are a better team than the Broncos on both sides of the ball, especially since Denver was starting backup quarterback Paxton Lynch, but it’s fair to question if this line is too high. The Falcons were 7 point underdogs on the early line last week, meaning this line only shifted a half point for the Falcons’ surprising and impressive victory last week. I think the talent gap between these two teams is a little closer than this line suggests. We’re not getting a ton of line value, but I would have had the line at like 5.

More importantly, the Falcons are in a much better spot than the Seahawks. This is third of three tough games (Carolina, Denver, Seattle) for Atlanta, before they host the Chargers next week. With no upcoming distractions, they should be completely focused here. Meanwhile, the Seahawks head to Arizona next week, to face last year’s division winner. While the Falcons will definitely be favorites next week, the Seahawks are likely to be underdogs. Underdogs are 83-58 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs. I see this being a close game and I like Atlanta’s backdoor cover chances even if they’re down like 10 or 13 late. As long as you get 6 or higher, Atlanta is worth a bet.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

I’m torn on this one. The Jets turned the ball over a ridiculous 8 times last week, but still were in the game against Kansas City until late. In fact, they only allowed one offensive touchdown all game. The Seahawks have played well so far this year and enter this game 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Jets are easily the toughest opponent they’ve faced thus far, after starting the season with Miami, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Their offense has made major problems through 3 games, thanks to a weak offensive line and Russell Wilson being at less than 100% with some injuries. Wilson is still playing hurt and the offensive line is still a mess, but he also has the best receiving corps he’s ever had and, if Christine Michael can continue to run like he did last week, it’s going to go a long way towards keeping this offense on schedule. This line is under 3, so I’d have to be confident they’d win if I took the Jets. I’m not, so I’m taking the Seahawks, but this is a no confidence pick.

Seattle Seahawks 17 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -2

Confidence: None

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