Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks re-sign WR Doug Baldwin

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Doug Baldwin hasn’t been incredibly productive in his career thus far, as the 2011 undrafted free agent has posted lines of 51/788/4 and 50/778/5 in 2011 and 2013 respectively, with a 29/366/3 line in 2012 in between. However, much of that is because of much of a run heavy team the Seahawks are. He averaged 1.83 yards per route run (on 425 routes run) in 2013, 27th in the NFL, and was Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked wide receiver in terms of pass catching grade. In 2011, he was also Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked wide receiver and, even in 2012, he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. He just didn’t see as much playing time. He’s averaged 1.91 yards per route run in his career.

He’s an underrated wide receiver and a real asset to a relatively thin wide receiving corps in Seattle. He’s a slot specialist (69.4% of snaps were on the slot last season), but he has the ability to start outside as well. He’ll be the #2 wide receiver next year with Sidney Rice coming off of a torn ACL. They are keeping him here at a very reasonable rate, 13 million over 3 years, a very smart move for a team that’s going to be very expensive to keep over the next few off-seasons. For comparison, Emmanuel Sanders got 15 million over 3 years, even though he averaged 1.48 and 1.34 yards per route run in 2012 and 2013 respectively in Pittsburgh. This was a very solid move by the Seahawks.

Grade: A

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Seattle Seahawks re-sign CB Richard Sherman

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Richard Sherman’s extension will make him easily the highest paid cornerback in terms of average salary at 14 million dollars yearly (4 years, 56 million added on to the one year remaining on his current contract). It’s a lot of money, especially when you include that 40 million of it is guaranteed, though the Seahawks will have options to get out of his 2015 and 2016 salaries within 5 days of the Super Bowl. However, Sherman deserves to be the highest paid cornerback in the NFL.

In 3 years in the NFL, Richard Sherman has allowed 115 of 248 (46.4%) for 1621 yards (6.54 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, while deflecting 34 passes and committing 26 penalties. No other NFL cornerback really comes close to that, with the exception of Darrelle Revis, who has allowed 43.1% completion, 5.41 YPA, and 12 touchdowns, while picking off 20 passes, since 2008. Sherman is essentially Revis with better ball skills, less of an injury history, and 3 years younger, only going into his age 26 season.

He deserved to get more than the 12 million yearly Darrelle Revis got from the Patriots. It’s hard to say that 56 million over 4 years is a great value, but it’s appropriate and the Seahawks really did need to keep him. The guaranteed money seems like a lot, but, again, it’s not all fully guaranteed and this deal only takes Sherman through his age 31 season so it’s unlikely, barring injury, that the Seahawks will see the need to let Sherman go at any point throughout the duration of the guaranteed money.

Grade: B+

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Seattle Seahawks re-sign S Earl Thomas

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

The Seahawks have made Earl Thomas easily the highest paid safety in the NFL, giving him 10 million dollars annually over the course of this extension and guaranteeing that Thomas will make 27.725 million dollars. While the 40 million dollar total value of this contract isn’t a record, both the guaranteed money and the annual salary are records (for non-rookie contracts), surpassing the deal that Jairus Byrd got earlier this off-season from the Saints, which gave him 54 million over 6 years with 26.3 million guaranteed.

Some people consider Earl Thomas the top safety in the NFL. I disagree, in favor of Jairus Byrd. Byrd has graded out higher than Thomas on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons that Thomas has been in the league. Byrd was 3rd among safeties in 2011, 2nd in 2012, and 8th in 2013, only coming in 8th because he missed time with injury. Thomas, meanwhile, has never graded out higher than 8th, doing so in 2011, and finishing 9th in 2013.

There’s something to be said for the fact that Thomas is 3 years younger (only going into his age 25 season) and this deal only taking him until his age 29 season, while the Saints could theoretically have Byrd under contract until his age 33 season. Thomas has also never missed a game, while Byrd has missed 7 games in 5 seasons, including recently 5 games missed in 2013 with foot problems. However, Byrd is the best safety in the NFL, not Thomas.

The big difference: In 5 seasons, Byrd has missed 22 tackles, while Thomas has missed 55 tackles in 4 seasons, including 31 over the past 2 seasons alone. That might sound like splitting hairs, but when we’re talking about best safety in the NFL, that type of thing matters. Both provide excellent depth coverage, but Byrd is also a sound tackler, which is not something you can say about Thomas. Byrd is the best safety in the NFL, while Thomas is in the mix with guys like TJ Ward, Eric Weddle, Eric Berry, Devin McCourty, and Troy Polamalu, who are in that next group of safeties.

This isn’t a bad deal, especially since it doesn’t even take Thomas into his 30s, meaning there’s a good chance he plays out this entire contract (5 years total, including the 4 years of extension). Thomas is a very valuable part of a Super Bowl winning defense. However, he doesn’t deserve to be the highest paid safety in the NFL. The Seahawks have so much young talent that they’re going to get so expensive to keep together over the next few seasons.

Richard Sherman is next with a deal that is going to be worth 12+ million dollars yearly and then Russell Wilson with a deal that’ll probably pay him 20+ million dollars yearly. Those two will both deserve their contracts more than Thomas deserves this one. Bobby Wagner is another guy that could command big money soon, while Russell Okung, Byron Maxwell, and Cliff Avril are going into contract years. They already have big contracts given to Max Unger, Brandon Mebane, Kam Chancellor, Percy Harvin, Michael Bennett and Marshawn Lynch on their books. Overpaying guys, no matter how talented they are, is being financially irresponsible, which is not something the Seahawks can afford to be.

Grade: B-

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Seattle Seahawks sign DT Tony McDaniel

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

This is very similar to the deal that the Buccaneers gave Clinton McDonald. Like McDonald, Tony McDaniel was a little thought of defensive tackle before this season, playing 590 snaps in 2011 and 2012 combined, but broke out this season with the Seahawks (though McDaniel came from Miami, while McDonald moved up Seattle’s depth chart). McDaniel is a couple of years older, but I actually like this deal better than McDonald’s for 4 reasons.

The first is that it’s less money. While McDonald got 12 million over 4 years with 4.75 million guaranteed, McDaniel got 5.75 million over 2 years with just the 1.25 million dollar signing bonus guaranteed. That’s less money per year, fewer years, and less guaranteed money, which offsets the minor age factor (they’re both under 30 anyway). The second is that McDaniel stays in Seattle, while McDonald goes to Tampa Bay. There’s no guarantee that McDonald will be as good outside of Seattle’s system. We don’t have to find out with McDaniel.

Three, McDaniel was actually the better of the two players last season. They’re different players, as McDonald is a sub package player who specializes in getting to the quarterback, while McDaniel is a base player who specializes in stuffing the run. However, McDaniel was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked defensive tackle (including 4th against the run), while McDonald was Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked defensive tackle (including 16th as a pass rusher).

The final reason is that McDaniel has more of a history of success than McDonald. Neither has much, but while McDonald literally came out of nowhere, playing 794 snaps from 2009-2012 after getting drafted in the 7th round in 2009 and getting cut as a final cut, McDaniel had some decent years as a reserve in Miami. For instance, in 2010 he was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked 3-4 defensive end on 426 snaps. Both deals were good deals, but all in all, I like McDaniel’s deal better. This was a great signing for a Seattle team that needed to keep McDaniel after losing McDonald.

Grade: A

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Seattle Seahawks re-sign DE Michael Bennett

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Every off-season it’s the same thing. Teams with bad general managers like the Vikings overpaid guys like Everson Griffen (5 years, 42.5 million), while teams with good general managers like the Seahawks are able to get guys like Michael Bennett (4 years, 28.5 million) on good values. Part of the reason why they were able to get Bennett for so cheap is because they won the Super Bowl last year and Bennett wanted to stay with a contender, but the reason they won the Super Bowl was because they were well built. This kind of thing fuels itself and the Seahawks are definitely in a good situation.

This 28.5 million dollar deal over 4 years has 16 million guaranteed. The Seahawks signed the underrated Bennett last off-season on a ridiculous 1-year, 4.8 million dollar deal and he was a big part of their Super Bowl run. He seems to be rewarding them for taking a chance of him and for the success they were able to have last season. Bennett was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end last season. In 2011 and 2012, he was 7th and 7th respectively. He’s the only 4-3 defensive end to grade in the top-7 in each of the last 3 seasons. He deserves to be paid like a top-5 defensive end, but this contract is only 12th among defensive ends in average salary. This is a steal.

Grade: A

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Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks: Super Bowl XLVIII Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, Broncos, Seahawks, Super Bowl XLVIII Pick, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (15-3) vs Seattle Seahawks (15-3) at MetLife Stadium

The big matchup in this game is Denver’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense. Because the media loves hyperbole, the Broncos’ offense is being billed as one of the top offenses of all time, while the Seahawks’ defense is being billed as one of the top defenses of all time. Only one half of that hyperbolic statement is accurate. The Broncos are one of the greatest offenses of all time. It can be tough to compare across eras, but they’ve scored the most points in a single season in NFL history. The Seahawks ranked #1 in points allowed this season, allowing 14.4 points per game, but I don’t think they’re in all-time great territory. There’s some team that allows that few points pretty much every season.

The Seahawks might not even be the best defense in the NFL. Points per game allowed isn’t the end all of defensive statistics. I feel the statistic rate of moving the chains allowed is the best way to determine how good a defense (or an offense) has played because the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). It also does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

The Seahawks finished the regular season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential allowed at 66.29%, very good, but hardly all-time great status like the Broncos’ offense. After two playoff games, the Seahawks are now at 66.73% in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed, which makes sense because teams’ schedules obviously get tougher in the playoffs.

The Broncos, meanwhile, finished the regular season, first, by far, moving the chains at an 81.09% rate. However, after two playoff games, that number is even higher, as they are now moving the chains at an 81.62% rate. They’ve punted just once in two playoff games. Granted, they haven’t played tough defenses in either game, but that’s still incredibly impressive. The Seahawks can slow them, but they won’t be able to stop them. I think Richard Sherman has a good chance to shut down one side of the field (contrary to popular belief he doesn’t shadow #1 receivers and will not shadow Demaryius Thomas in this game), but Peyton Manning has plenty of other weapons and he knows how to use them. The Broncos will probably be in the 20-27 point range so the Seahawks will have to keep up.

Can the Seahawks keep up? Well, the Broncos defense is not nearly as good as their offense. The Broncos finished the regular season 20th in rate of moving the chains against, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71.86% rate and now they are at 72.24%. The Seahawks, meanwhile, finished the regular season 13th in rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 72.35% rate, and now they are at 71.64%. They’re not a great offense, but they’ll be able to move the chains on this defense, especially with Percy Harvin back for the Seahawks and Von Miller and now Chris Harris out for the season for the Broncos.

In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Broncos are at 9.38%, including playoffs, while the Seahawks are at 4.91%. That suggests this line should be around 4.5 in favor of Denver instead of 2. Why are the Broncos significantly better than the Seahawks in this category in spite of their identical records? Well the Seahawks have been much more reliant on winning the turnover battle as they are +23 on the season, including playoffs, while the Broncos are -2. Winning the turnover battle tends to be a tough thing to do on a consistent basis, so the fact that the Broncos have been able to win without winning the turnover battle, while the Seahawks have had more issues doing so works in Denver’s favor. Seattle is going to find it much harder to pick off Peyton Manning than any other quarterback in the league anyway.

That being said, I’m not crazy about Denver for two reasons. One is that aforementioned injury situation with Harvin, Miller, and Harris. Two, rate of moving the chains differential doesn’t take into account strength of schedule and the Seahawks have had the much tougher schedule this season. The Seahawks finished the regular season with a 17th ranked strength of schedule, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, while the Broncos finished with a 31st ranked strength of schedule. The Broncos also played two easier playoff games than the Seahawks, coming out of the easier AFC. I hate not having a confident pick for the Super Bowl, because obviously it’s the biggest game of the year, but I’m only a little bit confident in the Broncos.

Denver Broncos 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against spread: Denver -2

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 NFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (14-4) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

I almost never go against the Seahawks at home and with good reason. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 39-19 ATS at home, including 23-11 ATS as home favorites. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 12-5 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.41 points per game at home since the start of last season and have a 16-1 record over that time span.

I went against the Seahawks at home last week because I thought the line was just too big and because teams tend to cover in the playoffs in same season, same site, non-divisional revenge games. Going against them at home didn’t end badly last week. I had my pick push because I got the Saints +8 and they lost by exactly 8, but if I had gotten it at +9.5, where it was right before the game, it would have been a win for me.

This week, the line isn’t nearly big enough. This line, at 3.5, essentially suggests that these two teams are even and that the Seahawks don’t have a significant home field advantage. You can argue the first one, but you can’t deny their home field advantage. The only way this line makes sense given the Seahawks’ home dominance is if the 49ers are 2-3 points better than the Seahawks on a neutral field.

Not only do I think that’s wrong, I think the Seahawks are the better team on a neutral field. The Seahawks move the chains at a 71.88% rate, as opposed to 66.87% for their opponents, a differential of 5.01%. The 49ers, meanwhile, move the chains at a 71.26% rate, as opposed to 68.02% for their opponents, a differential of 3.25%. That suggests that the Seahawks should be about 5 point favorites even before we factor in their crazy home field advantage. Home field advantage taken into account, the Seahawks should really be favored by 7.5 or 8 points, not 3.5. We’re getting significant line value with them.

The 49ers do have one trend working for them. Teams with 12+ wins are 39-11 ATS in the playoffs against teams with better record than them. However, there are definitely plenty of other things working against them. It’s also worth noting that no team since the 1992-1993 Bills have made the Super Bowl the year after losing the Super Bowl and they did it in an AFC that was much weaker than today’s NFC.

Finally, in spite of last week’s win in Carolina, the 49ers have had a lot of issues with top level teams this year. They’ve gone 2-4 in games against teams that finished with 11 or more wins. The other 3 remaining playoff teams are a combined 9-6 (Seattle 4-2, New England 3-2, Denver 2-2). It’s been worse than that as Colin Kaepernick has really struggled in those 6 games.

The Carolina game was his best performance in that type of game this season, but he still just completed 53.3% of his passes. His highest completion percentage in those 6 games is still just 54.8%. In those 6 games total, he is 84 of 165 (50.9%) for 866 yards (5.24 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 194 yards and a touchdown on 40 carries. In his other 12 games, he’s 190 of 309 (61.5%) for 2745 yards (8.88 YPA), 19 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while rushing for 443 yards and 4 touchdowns on 67 carries. He’s already been destroyed twice in his young career in Seattle by scores of 42-13 and 29-3. This one might be a little closer, but I love getting Seattle at just -3.5.

Seattle Seahawks 20 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: High

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New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 NFC Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, Saints, Seahawks, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home dominance and the Saints’ road struggles. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 39-18 ATS at home, including 23-10 ATS as home favorites, and 12-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 12-4 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.94 points per game at home since the start of last season and have a 15-1 record over that time span.

Meanwhile, since 2008, the Saints are 31-10 ATS at home and 18-25 ATS on the road, excluding the 2012 season when Sean Payton didn’t coach. Sure, they won last week, but they could have easily lost in Philadelphia and Drew Brees’ play against a weak Philadelphia defense shouldn’t instill much confidence in his ability to win big games away from home. On the season, they are still just 2-7 ATS on the road and 4-5 straight up, with the wins coming by a combined 16 points and the losses coming by a combined 51 points, including a 27 point loss in Seattle earlier this season.

However, the problem is that everyone knows about the Seahawks home dominance and the Saints’ road struggles. That’s clearly affecting this line as the Seahawks as 8 point favorites. That suggests the Seahawks are 5 points better than the Saints on a neutral field under normal home field advantage. That’s simply not true. I know the Seahawks don’t have a normal home field advantage and the Saints aren’t the same team away from New Orleans, but that’s already been priced into the line and then some. We’re not getting any line value with the Seahawks.

In fact, I have numbers that suggest that the Saints are a better team than the Seahawks on a neutral field. The Saints rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.90% rate, as opposed to 69.15% for their opponents, a differential of 7.75%. The Seahawks, meanwhile, move the chains at a 72.35% rate, as opposed to 66.23% for their opponents, a differential of 6.12% that ranks 5th in the NFL.

Why has Seattle been more successful than the Saints this year in spite of that? Well, turnovers and return touchdowns have benefitted them in a way that they haven’t benefitted the Saints. While the Saints are +2 in turnovers, the Seahawks are +20. Also, the Seahawks are +3 in return touchdowns and the Saints are -2, a 35 point swing. That kind of thing tends to be very tough to rely on in any given week.

Rate of moving the chains suggests that the Seahawks should be favored by only a point and a half. Of course, that would be absurd because that doesn’t take into account that the Seahawks are a significantly better home team than road team and the Saints are a significantly worse road team than home team. You could definitely argue this line should be around 6 or 6.5 because of that, but 8 seems a little steep. At the very least, we’re not getting any line value with the Seahawks and we might be getting some with the Saints.

The Saints are also in the better spot. I mentioned they got blown out in Seattle earlier this year. That actually works to their benefit this week. It might seem counterintuitive, but it means sense once you think about it, as the Seahawks could be overconfident as a result of that win. Teams are 26-13 ATS since 2002 in same site non-divisional revenge games in the post-season, meaning that teams cover at a high rate in the post-season against a non-divisional team that they lost to in the regular season in the same location. It’s even true of blowout losses are teams are 12-6 ATS in same site non-divisional revenge games against teams they lost to by 10 or more the previous time. In fact, teams are 17-8 ATS in the post-season in that situation regardless of location.

The Seahawks could also be overconfident because they’re at home coming off of a bye. Teams are 14-22 ATS since 2003 as home favorites after a 1st round bye in the post-season, including 8-14 ATS off of a week 17 win. With a week off and a team they already beat coming to town, the Seahawks may have one eye on the NFC Championship Game and a potential rubber match with the 49ers. Patriots/Broncos and Seahawks/49ers seem to be the consensus AFC/NFC Championship Games right now. We all know how seldom the consensus is right in the post-season. It might not be a bad idea to bet against all 4 of those teams. I’m thinking at least 3 of their opponents cover.

The Saints, meanwhile, are in a good spot as teams are 10-3 ATS off of a road playoff win since 2005. Not only that, but they are 8-5 straight up despite being underdogs all 13 times. We’ve seen so many teams go on runs from the Wild Card round after winning on the road before. That could make the Saints dangerous. I hate going against the Seahawks at home, especially given the Saints’ road struggles and especially when the Saints seem to be somewhat of a public underdog, but there’s too much value with the Saints here and too much going in their favor. I’m not that confident though.

Seattle Seahawks 24 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans +8

Confidence: Low

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St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (12-3)

The Seahawks need this win to clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage through to the Super Bowl. The Seahawks lost at home last week, for the first time since week 16 of the 2011 and the first time in Russell Wilson’s career, snapping a perfect 14-0 start. However, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t still be an auto-bet at home. Nothing is going to work every time, but betting on the Seahawks blindly at home has been very lucrative in the past, actually dating back several seasons.

Since 2007, they are 38-18 ATS at home, including 22-10 ATS as home favorites, and 11-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 11-4 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.87 points per game at home since the start of last season. One loss doesn’t change that.

What one loss does do is give us some line value with the Seahawks. The Seahawks were 10 point home favorites for the Cardinals last week and it seemed completely reasonable at the time given the Seahawks home dominance. Now they are just 10 point home favorites against a St. Louis team that lost by 20 in Arizona and that is without left tackle Jake Long with a torn ACL? Why? Because they lost one game? The Seahawks have been very good off of a loss recently anyway, going 15-9 ATS off of a loss since Pete Carroll took over in 2010 and 5-2 ATS off of a loss since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback in 2012. That makes sense considering elite head coach/quarterback duos usually dominate off of a loss.

How much line value are we getting with the Seahawks? Well, they move the chains at a 72.28% rate, as opposed to 66.82% for their opponents, a differential of 5.46%, which ranks 6th in the NFL. The Rams, meanwhile, come in at 23rd, moving the chains at a 70.07% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.37%. That suggests this line should be around 12, before you even get into the Seahawks’ home dominance and the absence of Jake Long. I have a lot of confidence in the Seahawks this week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 St. Louis Rams 6

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: High

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (12-2)

Seattle at home is pretty much an auto-bet. They’ve been incredible at home over the past few years. Since 2007, they are 38-17 ATS at home, including 22-9 ATS as home favorites, and 11-3 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 11-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 14 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 18.57 points per game.

The Cardinals are a solid football team, better than average in fact. They move the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 69.57% for their opponents, a differential of 2.45% that ranks 11th in the NFL. The Seahawks are obviously very good as well, moving the chains at a 73.77% rate, as opposed to 67.41% for their opponents, a differential of 6.36% that ranks 4th in the NFL. Using those, we can calculate the line at about 7 (the differences between the differentials plus 3 for home field).

However, that assumes that Seattle has a normal home field advantage, which they don’t. If anything, their home field advantage should be worth about 6 points. Since 2007, they outscore opponents by about 7.64 points per game at home by about 1.26 points per game in general. The difference between Seattle being at home and being at a neutral field in a sense is about 6, 6.5 points. If we use that for home field advantage, we get that this line should be around 10 or 10.5, which is exactly where it is.

Arizona also isn’t a very good road team. While they are 6-1 at home, including wins over Detroit, Carolina, and Indianapolis, on the road, they’ve lost in St. Louis, Philadelphia, got blown out in San Francisco and New Orleans, and only won by a field goal over Tampa Bay and Tennessee. The only road win by more than a field goal they have came against Jacksonville, who is probably the worst team in the NFL. If the Cardinals lost by double digits in San Francisco and New Orleans, why wouldn’t they lose by double digits in Seattle? Even if we assume that playing in the Superdome is comparable to playing in Seattle, the Cardinals lost by 24 in New Orleans and I think playing in Seattle is even harder, at least this year.

The Seahawks are also in a couple of excellent spots as well. They have no upcoming distractions on the schedule as they just have to host the Rams next week. Teams are 42-25 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more before being home favorites of 10 or more, which they almost definitely will be for the Rams next week, given that they are for a superior Cardinals team. On top of that, they are riding quite a hot streak right now after shutting out the Giants at home last week. Tends tend to ride that into the next week, going 41-22 ATS since 1989 after shutting out a team on the road. I like Seattle a good deal this week.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: Medium

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