Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8)

The Seahawks have the biggest home/road disparity over the last few years. They are 23-43 ATS on the road and 46-20 ATS at home since 2005. This year, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home, including 3-0 SU as home dogs, but on the road they are 3-4 ATS. That might not sound bad, until we take a closer look.

Two of those covers were in their 2nd straight road game and teams generally cover as road dogs off a road loss. The Seahawks are an even worse 16-31 ATS on the road directly after a home game since 2005, a situation they’re in this week. The other cover was a 7 point loss in San Francisco as 7.5 point dogs, which should have been a 9 point loss and non-cover, but Jim Harbaugh strangely declined a safety. They still struggled mightily offensively, scoring just 6 points and it was on a Thursday Night, when weird stuff happens.

The point remains, the Seahawks are not a good road team. They are 1-3 ATS on the road off a home game this year, with that one cover being the San Francisco game and more importantly, they are 0-3 ATS and SU as road favorites this year. Since 2005, they are 6-12 ATS as road favorites. Russell Wilson completes 61.3% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 1 interception at home, but 64.1% for an average of 6.8 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the road.

At first glance, we are getting line value with Seattle. The Seahawks rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.61, while the Bills rank 26th at -0.41. If you take the difference and add multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 2.5 points to Buffalo’s side for home field, you get that Seattle should be favorites of 8.5.

That holds up somewhat to DVOA, as Seattle rank 2nd in both regular and weighted and Buffalo ranks 21st in regular and 17th in weighted (more on that later). Both teams are noticeably better in DVOA than net points per drive, though Buffalo slightly more so. As well as that, Seattle’s consistent road struggles need to be taken into account. On the road, they get outscored by 6 points per game and at home they outscore teams by 7 points per game over the past 7 years. Instead of using 2.5 for home field, we should use 6.5. If we do that, the real line is at -4.5 and that doesn’t take into account that Buffalo is playing solid football right now and has a decent weighted DVOA.

Since the bye, they lost by 12 against Houston in Houston, but should have covered the 10.5 point spread if not for a missed easy field goal. The next week, they lost by 6 in New England as 11 point dogs and were actually driving for a potential game winning score late. They then won against Miami at home and lost by a special teams touchdown in Indianapolis. They followed that up by blowing out the Jaguars and losing to an also underrated Rams team at home in a game they led most of the way.

Ever since Mario Williams had that minor wrist surgery during the bye, he’s been playing so much better and they’ve consequently held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 21. As a result, they have been competitive in all 6 games. Seattle, meanwhile, is without stud cornerback Brandon Browner with a suspension. They obviously didn’t miss him against Arizona because their quarterbacks are so terrible, but Ryan Fitzpatrick can take advantage of holes in a secondary if there are some. The line doesn’t take that into account, I believe.

The Seahawks are also potentially in a bad spot as teams are 33-63 ATS as non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs since 2002, including 2-9 ATS as road non-conference favorites before being home divisional dogs. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 3-17 ATS. The Panthers lost in Kansas City in this spot a few weeks ago. The early line for next week has the Seahawks as 1 point home dogs for the 49ers next week, which would count. They may end up being favorites when all is said and done, but you can’t deny that they might overlook “crappy,” unfamiliar, non-conference Buffalo with that game next on the schedule.

We’re also getting a major overreaction line here as the Seahawks were just -3 a week ago and now they’re -6. I’m not surprised they blew out the Cardinals at home. They’re a good home team. Did we forget they lost in Miami two weeks ago despite having a 22-3 ATS trend on their side (road favorites off a bye)? This has given us line value and, in spite of this, the public is pounding Seattle and the public always loses money in the long run. On top of that, the Seahawks are in a potentially very bad spot.

It’s worth noting that this game is in Toronto, not Buffalo, where the Bills play one home game per year. That may have an impact, but they’ve never really played noticeably worse there than at home, granted in a small sample size. Toronto isn’t that far away and there’s lots of Bills fans there. I’m also worried about getting in the way of Seattle right now, especially since one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye every season and the only way that happens this year is if Seattle or Chicago win out. However, +6 is just too good to pass up. I’m very grateful for that huge line movement. It gives us enough room that, even if Seattle wins, the Bills could very well cover.

Public lean: Seattle (70% range)

Seattle Seahawks 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +6 (-110) 3 units

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 10 (+4)

Record: 8-5

Net points per drive: 0.61 (5th)

DVOA: 38.8% (2nd)

Weighted DVOA: 43.1% (2nd)

The Seahawks will control their own destiny to the #2 seed if the 49ers lose in New England this weekend and the Packers lose 1 more game. That’s very possible and if that happens, they’ll just need to win out and two of their final 3 games are at home, where they look pretty unbeatable. I don’t think even the 49ers could go in there and win. They’ll have to avoid another trip up against an inferior team on the road this week in Buffalo (a la St. Louis, Detroit, Miami, and Arizona), but if they can do that, I think this is this year’s team that goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. A first round bye would assure them at least one home playoff game and that’s no somewhere if you want to go if you’re a team like the 49ers, Packers, or Bears.

Studs

RB Robert Turbin: Rushed for 108 yards (55 after contact) on 20 attempts, 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt

RB Marshawn Lynch: Rushed for 128 yards (81 after contact) and 3 touchdowns on 11 attempts, 5 broken tackles

LT Russell Okung: Did not allow a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 30 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

LG Paul McQuistan: Did not allow a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 5 attempts

C Max Unger: Did not allow a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 78 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts

RT Breno Giacomini: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked 1 yard on 1 attempt

TE Anthony McCoy: Caught 3 passes for 105 yards on 3 attempts on 12 pass snaps, 25.3 YAC per catch

CB Richard Sherman: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 5 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

CB Walter Thurmond: Allowed 5 catches for 20 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

MLB Bobby Wagner: Allowed 4 catches for 21 yards on 5 attempts, 2 interceptions, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

ROLB KJ Wright: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 quarterback hits on 6 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 32 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection

SS Kam Chancellor: 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, allowed 1 catch for 1 yard on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection

RE Chris Clemons: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

LE Bruce Irvin: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

QB Russell Wilson: 7 of 13 for 148 yards and a touchdown, 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 61.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 3 of 15 drop backs (1 sack, 1 of 2)

WR Golden Tate: Caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 3 attempts on 22 attempts, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

TE Evan Moore: Did not catch a pass on 3 attempts, 2 penalties

DT Brandon Mebane: Did not record a pressure on 13 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

DT Jason Jones: Did not record a pressure on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

The Seahawks were able to get a rare road win in Chicago last week after face planting in Miami the week before thanks to the road dogs after a road loss trend. This week, it could potentially hurt their ability to win at home because the Cardinals are in that spot. They lost as road dogs in New York against the Jets last week and are now road dogs here. Road dogs off a road loss are 85-48 ATS since 2008.

I say potentially because the Seahawks are so dominant at home, as opposed to on the road. Since the start of the 2005 season, they are 45-20 ATS at home, as opposed to 23-43 ATS on the road. They are 5-0 ATS there this year with 3 straight up wins as dogs against Dallas, Green Bay, and New England. This is the first time they’ve laid 10 or more at home, but they are actually 5-0 ATS in that spot since 2005 and 15-3 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites. For the record, they are 5-1 ATS when their opponent is dogs after a road loss since 2005, which kind of throws that trend out the window.

We are getting line value with the Cardinals. The Seahawks rank 10th in net points per drive at 0.31, while the Cardinals rank 21st at -0.18. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game) and add 3 points for home field, you get that Seattle should be 8.5 point favorites, rather than 10 point favorites.

However, it’s important to add a human element to things like this and I can shoot that down with the human element in 3 ways. One, I like to look at DVOA to compare to net points per drive. DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule. Seattle ranks 4th in DVOA, including 3rd in weighted, while Arizona ranks 24th in DVOA, and 25th in weighted. That’s a much, much bigger difference than where these two teams are in net points per drive.

Second, the reason Arizona is better in regular DVOA than weighted DVOA, which weights recent games more heavily, is that, in case you haven’t noticed, they’re not playing so well lately. They’ve lost 8 straight and are nowhere near the team they were in the first 4 weeks of the season. Their defense isn’t playing nearly as well as it once was and offensively, they really miss Kevin Kolb which is saying something.

Ryan Lindley has been benched for John Skelton in this one, but I don’t know how much that helps. Remember, Skelton is completing 54.7% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA and 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season. In his career, he completes 53.3% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions.

In the Atlanta game, he was 2 of 7 for 6 yards before becoming the first and probably only quarterback in NFL history to get benched for Ryan Lindley. He’s an upgrade over Lindley, but that’s not saying much because I’m not sure I’m not an upgrade over Ryan Lindley. Lindley and Jimmy Clausen should have a suck off this offseason for charity. Skelton won’t have much success at all against Seattle’s awesome defense, especially not in Seattle, even with Brandon Browner suspended. That suspension will matter down the line against capable quarterbacks, but not so much in this one.

The third reason that 8.5 point line is invalid is because that assumes we use the standard 3 points for home field, which I argue we shouldn’t for Seattle’s games because of their home/road disparity. That 3 points come from the average amount an NFL team outscores its opponent at home, 3 points. Since 2005, the Seahawks outscore opponents by 6 points on average at home and get outscored by 6 points on the road.

For this reason, they outscore opponents by about 3 points per game ATS at home and get outscored by 3 points per game ATS on the road. That whole disparity could be closed if we used 6 points for home field for their games, in both directions, both home and away, which is why I do. Using that, we get a real line of Seattle -11.5, which gives us line value with Seattle, before even taking into account DVOA and Arizona’s awful quarterback situation and complete lack of momentum.

NFC West divisional games tend to be won by the home team and covered by the home favorite anyway. This makes sense. NFC West is 107-80 ATS at home since 2007. No division has as big of a home/road disparity as the NFC West. Seattle is a big part of why, but not the only reason. As you can imagine, when NFC West teams meet, the home team generally covers, especially as favorites, going 23-14 ATS in this spot since 2007.

As home favorites of more than a touchdown, teams are 12-5 ATS and 7-2 ATS as home favorites of double digits. The Seahawks are 11-4 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2005, 8-2 ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown, and 3-0 ATS as double digit favorites. NFC West divisional games also tend to go under the total, as the under has gone 80-54 since 2007, so I like the under, as well, in this one.

One trend is also in Arizona’s favor as teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer, but I can’t take Arizona here. The Seahawks are way too good at home and John Skelton is going to have a very, very tough time putting points on the board here against this Seahawks defense at home. I don’t like to lay more than a touchdown for a big play, but Seattle should still be the right side. They’re also my obvious survivor choice this week as I have yet to use them.

Public lean: Seahawks (50% range)

Sharps lean: ARI 16 SEA 2

Final thoughts: Sharps rarely back a double digit favorite. This is a little concerning, but then again, the Sharps haven’t had a good 3 week stretch either. I’d be more worried if my confidence level in the sharps was what it was a few weeks ago.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Arizona Cardinals 6 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, TB)

Pick against spread: Seattle -10 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 36 (-110) 1 unit

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 13 (+3)

Record: 7-5

Net points per drive: 0.31 (10th)

DVOA: 31.9% (4th)

Weighted DVOA: 35.6% (3rd)

Studs

QB Russell Wilson: 23 of 37 for 293 yards and 2 touchdowns, 4 throw aways, 1 drop, 97.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 21 of 44 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 scrambles, 5 of 16, 4 throw aways, 1 drop), rushed for 71 yards (10 after contact) on 9 attempts, 2 broken tackles

WR Sidney Rice: Caught 6 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 5.2 YAC per catch

SS Kam Chancellor: Was not thrown on, 4 solo tackles, 4 assists, 3 stops

RE Chris Clemons: 4 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

C Max Unger: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked 45 yards on 13 attempts

RG Paul McQuistan: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

LG John Moffitt: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

TE Zach Miller: Caught 2 passes for 7 yards on 6 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 0.5 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 6 pass block snaps

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Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bears, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Chicago Bears (8-3)

The Seahawks were 6-4 coming out of their bye last week and looked like they were in prime position to take one of the NFC’s two Wild Card spots. However, they lost on the road to the Dolphins and now all of a sudden, the sky is falling for this team. Everyone’s wondering what happened to them. I’ll tell you what happened to them. The same thing that happened to them when they went to Arizona, St. Louis, and Detroit and lost to an inferior team: they went on the road.

Since the start of the 2005 season, no team has a bigger home/road differential ATS wise than the Seattle Seahawks. They are 22-43 ATS on the road and 45-20 ATS at home. This year, that’s been especially true as they are 5-0 ATS at home (with 3 straight up wins as home dogs) and 1-5 ATS on the road (with 3 straight up losses as road favorites). At home, they outscore opponents by 6 points per game over that stretch and they get outscored by an average of 6 points per game on the road. The league average is 3 points at home and on the road, which is why 3 points are added either way when computing the line.

The only reason I didn’t take Miami for a big play last week, as I did when they were in Arizona and St. Louis and to a lesser extent, in Detroit, was because the Seahawks were coming off a bye and as road favorites, they had a trend that had hit 75% of the time since 2002 on their side. I still took Miami for a small play and even that powerful trend couldn’t combat the Seahawks’ road woes.

The Seahawks are on the road here, but in different circumstances. They are now road dogs after losing on the road. They are 4-3 ATS in this spot since 2005, which isn’t strong, but it’s definitely worth noting and it makes sense as teams generally tend to cover as road dogs off a road loss, going 138-79 ATS since 2005 in that spot. It’s not a reason why the Seahawks will cover, but it doesn’t make them an automatic fade here on the road.

It is worth noting that the Seahawks already failed to cover once this season in a very similar spot, losing in Detroit on the road as dogs after losing the week prior in San Francisco. They were 2.5 point dogs in that situation and they are 3.5 point dogs here, which doesn’t make a ton of sense. Chicago is much better than 1 point better than the Lions.

Using the net points per drive method to compute line value, we get a real line of Chicago -5.5 as Chicago ranks 7th in net points per drive and Seattle ranks 11th. However, we do need to look at DVOA to make sure there are no discrepancies, as net yards per drive doesn’t take into account everything that DVOA (which is net yards per drive based) does. In DVOA, Seattle actually ranks 4th in regular and weighted, while Chicago ranks 5th in both, which does make this line make more sense, that is until you remember how horrible Seattle generally is on the road, especially this year, and more importantly how much better the Bears are with Jay Cutler healthy.

Jay Cutler might be the most undervalued player in the NFL. Excluding the Houston game, in which he got hurt before halftime, the Bears are actually 13-1 straight up in Jay Cutler’s last 14 starts with that one loss being a very excusable one in Green Bay on a short week. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, again excluding that Houston game, the Bears are 15-4 and score 28.0 points per game. When he doesn’t, including that Houston game, they are 1-7 and average just 12.3 points per game.

That isn’t all him. For instance, Matt Forte missed a few of those games as well and Caleb Hanie, who started 5 of those games in his absence, is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Still, it shows he has a huge value to this team. He doesn’t put up flashy stats and his body language can be off putting, but the numbers don’t lie. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. Brandon Marshall is great, but they don’t have another receiver and their offensive line is atrocious. Cutler has done a great job of leading drives in spite of this and he is actually very tough to sack. Before Cutler got hurt, this team led the NFL in points differential and last week when he returned healthy, they blew out a solid Vikings team by 18.

It’s true they have yet to beat a truly good team this year, but they’ve only had one chance, that Green Bay game, with Cutler healthy for the full game. They’ve blown out several bad teams, leading the league with 6 double digit wins. They beat Indianapolis, Detroit, and Minnesota, solid teams, in impressive fashion and they should be able to beat the Seahawks here. There are some reasons to take Seattle and the 3.5 points, but I think Chicago wins straight up once again here and as long as this line is 4 or less, I have a hard time taking the Seahawks on the road against Cutler and the Bears.

Public action: Chicago (60% range)

Sharps lean: SEA 18 CHI 15

Final update: No change.

Chicago Bears 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against spread: Chicago -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 11 (-2)

Record: 6-5

Net points per drive: 0.29 (11th)

DVOA: 30.7% (4th)

Weighted DVOA: 32.1% (4th)

Tier 4: Young teams that could make the playoffs, but won’t do much once they get there

Studs

QB Russell Wilson: 21 of 27 for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 109.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 33 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 scrambles, 5 of 8, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away)

CB Richard Sherman: Allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE Chris Clemons: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

LG James Carpenter: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

RG Paul McQuistan: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

LOLB LeRoy Hill: Allowed 4 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

SS Kam Chancellor: Allowed 3 catches for 28 yards on 4 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, 3 missed tackles

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Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6)

As I mentioned in the Tennessee/Jacksonville write up, one situation I love betting on is road favorites after a bye. It’s strong for divisional matchups, as teams are 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye since 2002, but that trend is still 22-12 ATS for non-divisional matchups and 44-15 ATS overall, so it’s not like it’s not a huge factor in this game.

Whenever, I use that trend, I always check to make sure the team does deserve to be road favorites. Betting road favorites off a bye is great, but if you’re betting on a team that doesn’t deserve to be road favorites, it’s not so good. In order to do this, I use the two methods of computing line value. The rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Seattle -2 and the yards per play differential method says this line should be Seattle -1.5. We’re getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins +3, especially considering this line shifted 3 whole points in the past week just because Miami lost as dogs by 5 in Buffalo, but we do have confirmation that the Seahawks are deserving road favorites, so that powerful trend can be used, at least in usual cases.

However, this is not a usual case. Because these are the Seahawks, there is one other layer we have to look at. The Seahawks suck on the road. No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past several years than the Seahawks, who are 32-14 ATS at home and 16-30 ATS on the road since 2007. In past picks, I’ve even mentioned that because the Seattle outscore opponents by an average of 4 points per game at home and get outscored by 8 points per game on the road, lines in their games should use 6 points for home field advantage, rather than 3, which would no longer make the Seahawks deserve road favorites.

On top of that, the Dolphins are rested as well, coming off a Thursday Night game. Teams are 116-96 ATS off a Thursday Night game on a Sunday since 1989. This game is also a 1 PM start on the East Coast, normally a bad situation for West Coast teams. The Seahawks are an especially bad 4-15 ATS on the East Coast at 1 PM. Since 2007, they aren’t awful as road favorites, going 4-5 ATS, but if you go back to just 2005, that becomes 6-11 ATS.

The last time they were road favorites off a bye, they failed to cover and in the division too, one of the three ATS losses in that situation since 2002. Further damning the Seahawks, they are even worse on the road off a bye, 2-6 ATS since 2002, and not off another road game, 11-22 ATS. The Dolphins are in a bad spot too though as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional home dogs, a situation teams are 11-22 ATS in since 2002. They could be caught looking forward to New England next week.

Overall, there’s a ton going on here. The Seahawks are deserving road favorites off a bye by traditional methods, but they’re a terrible road team, especially at 1 PM ET on the East Coast and the Dolphins are pretty rested as well and have a little bit of line value even before you factor in the Seahawks road troubles. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are also in a bad spot and could be caught looking forward to New England next week, though if the 4-6 Dolphins have any playoff ambitions, they pretty much need to win here, so maybe they won’t overlook them.

The public is also heavy on Seattle and because the odds makers need to make money back off a rough 3 week stretch, I’m going to make that the tiebreaker and take Miami, but it would be a zero unit pick if I did them and low in confidence pools. I wish we were getting 3.5 though. This one feels like it will be a push. Actually, if there were some way I could get 5:1 odds this game would be decided by exactly 3 points, I’d probably take that.

Public lean: Seattle (80% range)

Sharps lean: SEA 8 MIA 6

Final update: No change.

Seattle Seahawks 19 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-110) 1 unit

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 10 (+1)

Record: 6-4

Remember two weeks ago when everyone thought the sky was falling for them when they were 4-4 after losing to Detroit. And two weeks before that everyone thought they were great when they were 4-2 and coming off a win against New England. Well, now they’re 6-4 and everyone thinks they’re great following a blowout win over the Jets. What happened? They went home. This team, as always, is much better at home than on the road, going 5-0 at home with 3 upset wins and 1-4 on the road with 2 upset losses.

Now they go on the road to Miami and Chicago and could be 6-6 at the end of that and everyone will think the sky is falling for them again before they finish up by winning their last 4, beating Arizona, St. Louis, and San Francisco (in upset fashion) at home and taking care of business on the road against crappy Buffalo. 10 wins should get you a playoff spot in the NFC. The Seahawks already have the tiebreaker over the Packers. If they can win their last 3 home games and beat either Miami or Buffalo on the road, they should be on good position to win a wild card berth, go on the road in the first round, and then get sent home immediately.

Studs

QB Russell Wilson: 12 of 19 for 188 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 101.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 26 drop backs (4 sacks, 2 scrambles, 4 of 8, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away), rushed for 34 yards (19 yards after contact) on 7 attempts

CB Richard Sherman: Did not allow a completion on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 2 pass deflections, 1 sack on 1 blitz, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Leroy Hill: Allowed 3 catches for 10 yards on 4 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

FS Earl Thomas: Allowed 3 catches for 11 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

Duds

RE Chris Clemons: 1 quarterback hit on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

DT Brandon Mebane: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jets, Seahawks

New York Jets (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-4)

I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle this week. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

The reason I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle is because I love them this week. There’s a slight public lean, but not enough to deter me from making a big play on them. First off, Seattle is amazing at home. They’re undefeated at home this year. Dating back to 2007, they’re 31-14 ATS at home and this year’s team might be their most talented team in that stretch, part of the reason why they are 5-0 ATS at home this year. Since 2007, they are 15-6 ATS as home favorites and 10-1 ATS at home after a home game.

They balance everything out by going 16-30 ATS on the road in that stretch. For that reason, I’ve always said that the Seahawks should have to lay more than the traditional extra 3 points at home (and get more than 3 on the road). They outscore opponents by 4.4 points at home and get outscored by 8.3 on the road. Average those out and we should really be using something like 6 points in each direction for home field advantage when figuring out the real line for Seattle’s game. It’s such a big disparity.

This line is -6. The yards per play method of computing real line says this line should be -7 (taking into account just 3 points for home field) and the rate of sustaining drives method says this line should be -6. Even before you add what’s a necessary 6 points to Seattle’s total rather than 3 for home field, we are getting some line value with the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the original line of -6, using this new number for home field in Seattle’s game, suggests these two teams are even, which isn’t true at all.

Speaking of this line being -6, home favorites of 6 or more are 45-15 ATS before a bye and Seattle goes into a bye next week. When you take out 10+ home favorites from the equation, that trend becomes 33-8 ATS for home favorites of 6-9.5 before a bye. Home teams tend to be extra focused and take care of business going into a bye when they have a clear talent advantage over the opponent and don’t have to cover a double digit margin and that’s the case here. I know the Jets are coming off a bye, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Since 1989, home favorites of 6-9.5 are 6-3 ATS before a bye when their opponent is coming off a bye. It’s a small sample, but there’s certainly nothing to deter me. It’s a big play on Seattle.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: NYJ 18 SEA 4

Final update: Once again going to disagree with the sharps. Seattle is great at home, great at home off a home game, and 6-9.5 points home favorites dominate going into a bye. Besides, the odds makers need favorites to cover (to continue to close the favorites/dogs disparity) and they also need to make their money back. Any favorite not publicly backed (this one has even action) is a good idea.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Jets 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -6 (-110) 4 units

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