Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 17 (+0)

As they always do, the Seahawks fell flat on the road last week. Now there are calls for Russell Wilson’s job after his 3 pick performance (none of which were ruled touchdowns strangely) just a few weeks after he was the media darling who “beat the odds.” They’ve got a great defense and they’re great at home, but their offense isn’t very good and they really struggle on the road. I can’t see a team with that description winning much more than 8 or 9 games and making the playoffs in a loaded NFC.

Studs

RB Marshawn Lynch: Rushed for 118 yards (68 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 20 carries, 6 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps, caught 4 passes for 37 yards on 4 attempts

CB Brandon Browner: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, no tackles

Duds

QB Russell Wilson: 17 of 25 for 160 yards and 3 interceptions, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 57.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 31 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 scrambles, 7 of 12, 1 interception)

RT Breno Giacomini: Allowed 6 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LE Red Bryant: 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-2)

I love to exploit home/road discrepancies so the Seahawks are one of my favorite teams to bet. Since 2007, they are 29-14 ATS at home and 14-28 ATS on the road. Riding that trend is the reason why I’ve selected every Seahawks game correctly this year and for significant units as well. Going on the road to St. Louis this week, I plan to continue using that trend, especially since NFC West teams are just 23-36 ATS on the road over that same time period.

Now onto what happened last week for the Seahawks. Bogus win aside, you can have whatever opinion on what happened, one thing is for sure, the Seahawks really struggled moving the ball. Marshawn Lynch is the only player on this offense I really trust. Russell Wilson is definitely a likeable guy, but the fact is he’s a 3rd round rookie quarterback not getting any help from his receiving corps or offensive line who is subsequently completing 57.3% of his passes for an average of 5.8 YPA, 4* touchdowns and 1 interception.

Last week, against a Packer defense that has had more than its fair share of problems stopping people recently, Wilson was just 10 of 21 for 130 yards and 2 scores and that’s including a 24 yard touchdown that was questionable at best. Aside from the touchception, Wilson only made one big play through the air all night, a 41 yard touchdown strike to Golden Tate. Wilson showed good arm strength on the throw, but it was really just a long pitch and catch aided by a blown coverage. It doesn’t make up for the fact that he didn’t really do anything else notable all night. Aside from that last score, the Seahawks scored just 7 points at home last week.

While the Packers’ defense has had its fair share of issues stopping people recently, the Rams have done a great job of fixing their defense this offseason. Despite playing a fairly tough slate of offenses, Detroit, Washington, and Chicago, their defense actually ranks middle of the pack in terms of yards per play allowed. Facing their easiest test yet, they should be able to put the clamps on a mediocre Seattle offense that ranks 30th in the league in yards per play, especially since Seattle won’t have the 12th man on their side this week.

St. Louis’ offense is pretty mediocre too, but they’re actually averaging 0.5 yards per play more than the Seahawks. The Seahawks have an amazing defense though and St. Louis’ offensive line is held together with scotch tape right now, so don’t expect the Rams to move the ball much, though they do have the better quarterback. Seattle’s point per play differential is .6 yards better than St. Louis’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.”

Using that, Seattle should actually be favored by just 1 points, rather than 2.5 and that doesn’t even take into account that Seattle’s home/road discrepancy over the last few years suggests that more than 3 points should be added for home field advantage in games involving them. At home, they’re outscoring opponents by 4.3 points per game and, on the road, they are getting outscored by 8.7 points per game since 2007.

This is going to be an ugly low scoring game that either side can win and St. Louis has a much better shot than people are giving them. Not only is this line off by at least a couple of points, the public is leaning pretty heavily towards Seattle. The public is getting killed this year, as they normally do, so that’s a pretty bad sign for Seattle. One other trend that works against Seattle is that teams coming off a close (1-3 points) win as home dogs are 19-31 ATS since 2002. Those teams tend to be flat after such a close and emotional upset win and that should be only magnified this week after how last week ended and what happened after it.

If we still had the replacement refs, this would have been my pick of the week because home dogs have been dominating this year under them because they tended to side with the home crowd on calls (Seattle knows that better than anyone). Home dogs were 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS under the replacement refs, which is insane, but there’s no guarantee that will continue now that they’re gone. Still, that trend is noteworthy and I still like St. Louis to get the win and cover here for a significant play. We’re getting points with a home team that has the superior quarterback against a likely distracted team that sucks on the road in a year where home dogs are winning often.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): STL 19 SEA 1

Update: Biggest sharps lean of the week, by far. Feeling really good about St. Louis now.

St. Louis Rams 17 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: St. Louis +2.5 (-105) 4 units

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 24 (+7)

Record: 2-1

Bogus win aside, do you really trust anyone on this offense aside from Marshawn Lynch? Their offense was stagnant all night on it took some blown calls to even get them into double digits. Russell Wilson was 9 of 20 for 106 yards and a touchdown before that late touchception. That’s not all him, his receiving corps and offensive line aren’t very good either, but that’s to be expected from a rookie quarterback, especially a 3rd round rookie quarterback. Their defense is the real deal, but the defense was the real deal last year too and they missed the playoffs at 7-9, despite the 7th ranked scoring defense in the league. They’ll probably end up with about 8 or 9 wins this year, but in a loaded NFC, I don’t think they’re well rounded enough to make the playoffs. They actually have a negative yards per play differential and rank tied for 30th in offensive yards per play.

Studs

LG Paul McQuistan: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 1 attempt

C Max Unger: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 56 yards on 13 attempts

RG John Moffitt: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards on 5 attempt

SS Kam Chancellor: Allowed 5 catches for 20 yards on 7 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 penalty

ROLB KJ Wright: Allowed 6 catches for 50 yards on 8 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 14 pass rush snaps

RE Chris Clemons: 4 sacks and 3 quarterback hits on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 stops

LE Bruce Irvin: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback pressures on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 stops

DT Brandon Mebane: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 stops

P Jon Ryan: 6 punts for 301 yards, 4 inside 20, 3 returns for 12 yards, 48.2 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Russell Okung: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

RT Breno Giacomini: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

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Seahawks expect to have Russell Okung back this week

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

He missed last week with a knee injury, but after practicing in full Saturday, it appears the oft injured left tackle Russell Okung will suit up for Monday Night Football against the Packers. Veteran journeyman Frank Omiyale did an admirable job in his absence last week, allowing just 1 quarterback hit on 25 pass block snaps and getting penalized once, but the Seahawks have to be happy that Okung is able to suit for this one. The 6th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, Okung will likely see an awful lot of Clay Matthews this week and given the way he’s playing (7 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback pressures), there might not be a tougher matchup in the league at the moment.

The Seahawks would obviously like to get Okung going and healthy. He’s missed a lot of time in his first 2 plus years, but he’s definitely flashed. Playing 23 full games (including playoffs) out of a total 36 possible, Okung has allowed 9 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, 41 quarterback pressures and been penalized 16 times, all on the left side. If he can stay healthy here on out and finally reach his potential, it would be a huge boost for a largely subpar Seattle offensive line. For this week, however, coming off an injury, he’s at a huge disadvantage against Clay Matthews.

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Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Packers, Seahawks

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

I love exploiting home/road differentials and, for that reason, Seahawks games are always my favorite to bet. Last week, this is what I said about the subject, “No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 SU and 14-28 ATS on the road, but 24-18 SU and 27-14 ATS at home. That’s why it was predictable that they would lose to an inferior Cardinals team on the road last week; that’s why it’s now predictable that they’ll bounce back at home against a superior Cowboys team.” And what did they do? Well, they bounced back at home against a superior Cowboys team, improving to 28-14 ATS at home since 2007 and winning me my 2nd biggest play of the week

Because nothing that’s happened with this team so far has surprised me (the Cowboys were overrated and coming off an emotional opening night game, after which teams are 4-13-1 ATS in the last 9 years), I haven’t moved this team in my Power Rankings at all. That’s gotten a lot of comments from vocal Seahawks fans, who are as loud on the internet as they are at Century Link field (don’t worry, it’s a compliment). I had the Seahawks lower than most people in my Power Rankings to start the season and I haven’t moved them.

They can run the football and they play solid defense and they have one of the best home field advantages in the league, but they’re also terrible on the road and Russell Wilson is more likely to fail than succeed as a starter. He was a mere 3rd rounder and passed up on by every team in the league once and by most twice (including the Seahawks).

The NFL Draft is a crap shoot, but if there’s one thing the NFL as a whole is good at doing, it’s making sure that starting quarterbacks don’t fall out of the 1st round. Only 9 of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL today went outside the 1st round and only one rookie quarterback who didn’t go in the 1st round has started week 1 since 1994 and gone on to throw more touchdowns than interceptions.

I like Pete Carroll and maybe he and John Schneider found a diamond in the rough, but given the history of non-1st round pick quarterbacks in the NFL, Wilson will have to prove me wrong before I start believing in him. So far, he hasn’t really done that, completing 61.1% of his passes for an average of 5.6 YPA and 2 touchdowns to 1 interception. For reference, Tarvaris Jackson completed 60.2% of his passes for 6.9 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions last year. The quarterback position is still what’s keeping this from being a legitimate playoff team, especially out of what appears to be an improved NFC West. It also doesn’t help that neither the offensive line or receiving corps are very good.

Now, it is true that Wilson hasn’t really had to do much in their first 2 games, but this week he will have to as the Packers come to town. The Packers rebounded from a pitiful defensive showing week 1 to destroy Chicago last week and now it’s looking like week 1 was the fluke for them. Even at home on Monday Night with a crazy crowd on their side, the Seahawks will have their work cut out for them.

One thing the Seahawks’ unsurprising victory over the Cowboys last week did was it completely moved this line. This line was originally -6 in favor of Green Bay and now it’s -3. The Seahawks are now really overrated. I’m not saying going into Seattle and winning is easy, but all the Packers really need to do here is win straight up because we have field goal protection. Nobody has been better at doing that over the last 2 years or so as, including playoffs, the Packers are 22-3 in their last 25 games, 17-8 ATS. I really like them to win here as small favorites, especially with 11 days rest coming off Thursday Night football. Teams are 42-28 ATS since 2008 coming off Thursday Night football (excluding teams coming off week 1 Thursday Night games). There isn’t any trend that says that teams are better on Monday Night (4-5 ATS), but I don’t think the extra day of rest will hurt.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Pick change:

I’ve never done this before, but I’m changing this right before game time for several reasons.

1. Home dogs are dominating this year. They are 12-6 and an unbelievable 11-7 straight up. They aren’t just covering at a high rate. They’re pulling the upset at a rate higher than 61..1% clip. Home teams, in general, are 30-17 straight up this year. That’s a winning percentage of 63.8%. Over the last 22 seasons, home teams generally win at a rate of 58.1%. I know it’s early, but there is an explanation for this. It’s the replacement refs. It’s very possible they’re just much more easily swayed by crowds. Home teams generally have an advantage for this reason, but it’s possible it’s just more pronounced this year with inferior refs. Seattle is normally one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL and it’s only going to be louder on Monday Night Football. I don’t trust the refs to make the right calls and if they’re going to be getting them wrong, it’s probably going to be in Seattle’s favor tonight.

2. The public is getting murdered this year. On bets with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is 4-11 this year. This game is one of those cases with Green Bay having more than 80% of the action. Still, the line is dropping from -4 to -3.5 or -3 at some places. I don’t want to be siding with the public, given how they’ve fared this year, when there’s opposite line movement. The odds makers might know something the general public doesn’t and it’s possible that reason 1 is part of it.

3. New England lost. This will make sense in a bit. Every year, one team goes from having a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. Last year, the 4 team that had a 1st round bye were New England, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Green Bay. The AFC is so weak this year that I can’t see either Baltimore or New England missing the playoffs unless they were legitimately not good enough and both them of looked it last night. The Ravens actually have a better chance of missing the playoffs because they play in a division with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, while New England just has Miami, Buffalo, and the Revis-less Jets to deal with, but Baltimore also just won head-to-head.

The NFC, however, is a much stronger conference. Several deserving teams are going to miss the playoffs. There isn’t a single awful team in the conference. Their only 0-3 team is the Saints and you still can’t feel comfortable counting them out. The 6 or worst teams in the NFL, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Oakland, Miami, Kansas City, Indianapolis, they’re all in the AFC. Who does the NFC have that’s that bad? Minnesota and Arizona were supposed to be that bad. They’re 5-1. Carolina? St. Louis? Tampa Bay? Maybe? The AFC and NFC are 4-8 when they play each other this year.

For that reason, I have a feeling that the team that goes from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs is in the NFC. San Francisco is a candidate because they just fell flat against the Vikings, but they also beat the Packers head to head in Lambeau and they have, what I feel, is the easier division. Green Bay has had one good defensive performance and one bad one and the good one game on a short week against a discombobulated Bears team. If what we saw week 1 from their defense is really their defense (which makes sense given their reliance on takeaways last year), they can definitely lose this game and with a tough schedule, it wouldn’t be outrageous that they could miss the playoffs. As long as I can get field goal protection, I’m taking the points.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Seattle +3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 24 (+0)

Record: 1-1

I haven’t really moved the Seahawks much, starting them at 25, then moving them to 24, then keeping them at 24 this week. They’re a good team at home and a bad team on the road. Nothing that’s happened with this team has been unpredictable at all. This week, however, they get their toughest home test as Green Bay comes to town. The stadium will be rocking on Monday Night, but the Packers represent as big of a test as any. At the end of the day, this team will go as far as Russell Wilson takes them. They can run the football and play defense, but if Russell Wilson keeps playing like this, 61.1% completion, 5.6 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, they won’t go far. Given the history of non-1st round pick rookie quarterbacks and non-1st round pick quarterbacks in general in this league, I don’t expect much more from him than this as the year goes on.

Studs

RB Marshawn Lynch: Rushed for 122 yards (103 after contact) and a touchdown on 26 carries, 8 broken tackles,

ROLB KJ Wright: Allowed 5 completions for 51 yards on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

CB Richard Sherman: Allowed 2 completions for 14 yards on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles

LE Red Bryant: 2 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

P Jon Ryan: 4 punts for 215 yards, 2 of 4 inside 20, 2 returns for 2 yards, 48.3 net yards per punt

Duds

None

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Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-1)

No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 SU and 14-28 ATS on the road, but 24-18 SU and 27-14 ATS at home. That’s why it was predictable that they would lose to an inferior Cardinals team on the road last week; that’s why it’s now predictable that they’ll bounce back at home against a superior Cowboys team.

Speaking of that superior Cowboys team, they got a huge win last week over the New York Giants. Since the NFL started having teams play on Thursday Night to start the season (this year it was Wednesday night because of some stupid political thing), teams that win that game are 2-6 ATS the following week. The Packers almost lost to the Panthers the following week last year and they started 13-0.

Now, all 8 of the teams that won the opener have been Super Bowl champs, but it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with whether or not you’re defending Super Bowl champs. Teams that lose that game are also 2-6 ATS the following week. It’s an emotional game for both sides, for the defending Super Bowl champ because they get a big celebration and get their rings and for the opponent because they want to knock off the champs, especially after watching them celebrate and get their rings.

Besides, teams are 16-27 ATS since 2002 after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champ, regardless of week. Teams typically give everything they have when they play the Super Bowl champs and after getting an emotional win, it becomes very tough for them to sustain that energy the following week, so they’re typically flat and also typically slightly overrated coming off a huge win.

This should be true for the Cowboys. They gave the Giants everything they had last week, in an effort to not just knock off the Super Bowl champs, but to also try to establish dominance over a divisional foe who had recently had their number and just last season ended their season. It’s going to be very tough for them to sustain that kind of energy against the “lowly” Seahawks, who just lost to the Cardinals.

Besides, even though they won last week, it wasn’t quite as impressive as people are making it seem. The Giants may have been defending Super Bowl champs, but they were also the worst regular season team, in terms of win and point differential, to ever win the Super Bowl and the Cowboys only won because Tony Romo played one of the best games of his career and would not let the Cowboys destroy themselves with penalties. This week, that probably won’t happen and if they continue to commit tons of penalties, they could easily lose.

Now on to the “lowly” Seahawks. Their road/home disparity makes them a little underrated here. Their loss last week to an inferior squad was predictable, but they still have a strong defense and they still can run the ball and win if they don’t turn the ball over much, especially at home. They’re not some easy opponent that’s just going to roll over in Seattle (since 2007, they’re 12-4 ATS as home dogs of 3+). Last week, they were road favorites, normally the sign of a strong team and this week they’re home dogs, normally the sign of a week team. That seems like an overreaction based on one week.

A trend that sums this situation up nicely is this one: teams that lose as road favorites are 45-34 ATS since 1989 as home dogs the following week. This makes sense. Last week, they were good enough to be road favorites and now after just one week they’re bad enough to be home dogs? That’s an overreaction and the public is definitely overreacting to one week as almost all of the action is on the Cowboys in this one. I’m not going to overreact to one week. I’m going to pick the Seahawks to predictably bounce back at home after predictably flopping on the road against a Cowboys team that is publicly overrated and will overlook them following a huge, emotional victory.

Public lean: Dallas (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Seattle Seahawks 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Seattle +3 (+115) 4 units

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 25 (+1)

Record: 0-1

That sound you just heard was Russell Wilson’s bandwagon hitting a pole. As I’ve said all along, Wilson is far more likely to go the way of Quincy Carter, Chris Weinke, and Kyle Orton than Andy Dalton (the only 4 non-1st round picks to start at quarterback week 1 as a rookie since 1994). It certainly doesn’t help that his offensive line and receiving corps are below average either. They’ll run the ball alright and play solid defense, but they’re going to have a hard time consistently winning games, especially on the road where they are now 11-32 since 2007.

Studs

SS Kam Chancellor: Allowed 3 completions for 21 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, and 1 missed tackle on 22 run snaps, 1 penalty

LE Red Bryant: 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, and 1 stop on 18 run snaps, 2 quarterback pressures on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes

DT Brandon Mebane: 5 solo tackles and 4 stops on 16 run snaps, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass

RE Chris Clemons: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback pressures on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 2 stops on 20 run snaps, 1 penalty

RB Leon Washington: 5 yards (3 after contact) on 2 carries, 3 kickoff returns for 133 yards, 2 punt returns for 56 yards

Duds

LT Russell Okung: 2 quarterback pressures allowed on 40 pass rush snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 carries

RG JR Sweezy: 3 quarterback pressures allowed on 50 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 4 carries

WR Braylon Edwards: 5 catches for 43 yards on 8 targets on 43 pass snaps, 1.2 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR Doug Baldwin: 2 catches for 5 yards on 5 targets on 33 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

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Seahawks expect Doug Baldwin to play, Golden Tate to miss

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Even though he missed all of the preseason after undergoing hamstring surgery, the Seahawks expect Doug Baldwin to play and man the slot at wide receiver this week against the Arizona Cardinals. The same can’t be said for Golden Tate, who was originally supposed to split snaps at one starting wide receiver spot with Braylon Edwards. Tate has a knee problem that will keep him out for this week and possibly even more as he has not been given a timetable for return. Edwards will start in his absence, opposite Sidney Rice.

It’s a situation to avoid in fantasy, especially with a 3rd round rookie making his first regular season start under center. This receiving corps also won’t help Russell Wilson out much. The Seahawks are going to have to win a lot of games this year by running the football, playing strong defense, and avoiding turnovers, unless Wilson can prove his preseason was not a fluke.

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Seahawks expect Marshawn Lynch to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch escaped suspension, at least for now, after being arrested for DUI this offseason, but he could still miss week 1 after his back spasms flared up again. A recurring injury, they cost Lynch one game last season and limited him throughout the preseason. If he can’t go, Robert Turbin, a 4th round rookie, would get the start.

The Seahawks need him out there, even against the lowly Cardinals. The Seahawks have a below average receiving corps and are pretty weak on the offensive line and, as good as Russell Wilson looked in the preseason, it’s important to remember that he’s still a 3rd round rookie making his 1st career start. They’re also a poor road team, going 11-31 on the road since 2007, so they shouldn’t take the Cardinals lightly in Arizona, even as bad as their quarterbacks looked this preseason. The Cardinals, like the Seahawks, have a good young defense and might be able to pull the upset at home, especially if Lynch misses the game.

As for fantasy football, this is unfortunately a 4 o’clock game so if Lynch can’t go, your options will be limited to replace him. It’s recommended that all Lynch owners pick up Robert Turbin if he’s available. Not only would Turbin get the start if Lynch, who has an inconsistent history, misses any time this year, Turbin will eat into Lynch’s carries a little even if he’s healthy. The Seahawks really like the 4th round rookie and figure to run the ball a lot this year, supported by a strong defense, with a mobile rookie quarterback under center with a poor receiving corps.

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