Steelers

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Wild Card Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

I’m glad the Ravens made the playoffs. If San Diego had been able to beat the Chiefs, it would have eliminated the Ravens, regardless of what the Ravens did in their game against the Browns, and they would have missed the playoffs despite finishing the season ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.62%. Even when you adjust that for their weaker schedule, they still come in 4th among playoff teams at 4.94%, only behind consensus top teams Denver, Seattle, and New England. The Ravens went 10-6 despite a 2-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, finished 5th in DVOA, and their +107 point differential was 6th among playoff teams, so they definitely fit in among some of the best in the NFL.

The Ravens also come into the playoffs as the 4th hottest teams, ranking 4th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential among playoff teams at 10.56%, only behind Seattle, Carolina, and Dallas. However, that’s a little skewed because the Ravens faced back-to-back 3rd string quarterbacks against Houston and Cleveland and even schedule adjusted differential doesn’t take injuries into account. Their defense accounted for 11.09% of that, while their offense fared below average given their competition at -0.53%.

Their defensive performance was still very impressive even when you remember that they faced Case Keenum and Connor Shaw in back-to-back weeks and their defense gets an added boost this week, as Haloti Ngata returns from injury, but that offense is a concern, especially since the Ravens figure to be without both starting tackles Eugene Monroe and Ricky Wagner once again in this one. Both of them missed the Ravens’ uninspiring week 17 offensive performance against the Browns. Wagner is on injured reserve and Monroe didn’t practice all week.

Wagner has been the better of the two this season, as Monroe struggled in the first season of his big contract, but both of their backups are significant downgrades and won’t help an offense that’d already been stagnating over the past month or so. More bad news for the Ravens, they’ve been significantly better at home than on the road this season. At home, they’ve moved the chains at a 77.91% rate, as opposed to 67.26% for their opponents (a differential of 10.65%), while they’ve moved the chains at a 73.91% rate on the road, as opposed to 72.97% for their opponents (a differential of 0.94%). This home/road disparity is nothing new as since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 47-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-33, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.04 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9-9.5 points. The Ravens are on the road here.

If the Ravens are going to pull the upset here, their defense is going to have to continue playing well and slow down a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 3rd among playoff teams in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains. Fortunately, for the Ravens, they aren’t the only ones with serious injury problems as Le’Veon Bell has been ruled out for the Steelers. Bell was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked running back this season, grading out above average as a runner, pass catcher, and blocker.

He rushed for 1361 yards and 8 touchdowns on 290 carries, a 4.69 YPC, caught 83 passes for 854 yards and 3 touchdowns, and played the 2nd most snaps among running backs this season, showing true three down ability and amazing durability. In his absence, the Steelers will use a committee of Josh Harris, Dri Archer, and Ben Tate. Harris and Archer are rookies with 26 combined carries, while Tate has averaged 3.12 yards per carry on 119 carries this season, is on his 4th team this calendar year, just arrived this week, and doesn’t know the offense yet.

It’s about as big of a downgrade as you can get and not good news as the Steelers get set to take on a tough Baltimore defense, led by a punishing front 7 that should be able to stuff the Steelers’ running game, make them one-dimensional, and unleash their pass rushers. The Steelers have a strong offensive line, but the Steelers’ running back situation will hurt their blitz pickup ability and their check down ability in the face of pressure. If the Steelers are going to have a successful day offensively, it’s going to be because Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton are able to win one-on-ones against a weak group of Baltimore cornerbacks, which they have a decent chance of doing.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have a good chance of getting their offense back on track, despite missing both of their tackles, because the Steelers have the 2nd worst defense among playoff teams in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains allowed. They’ve been a little bit better over their past 4 games, playing about league average, and they get Troy Polamalu back this week after he missed week 16 and week 17 (though he hasn’t been that good this season), but it’s still a unit the Ravens can have success against.

The Ravens seem like the right side. They’ve been the better team all season and over the past 4 games, with an edge in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over both of those time periods (the Steelers have a slight edge over the past 8 games). The Steelers also have the worst injury situation as Le’Veon Bell is significantly more valuable than anyone the Ravens will be without this week. Despite that, we’re getting 3.5 points with the Ravens and the public is on the Steelers. I just can’t be too confident considering the Ravens’ road struggles.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

The Bengals lost 42-21 at home to the Steelers a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, but they’re in a great revenge spot here as a result. Divisional home favorites are 27-52 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (40-42) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate.

The Chargers are also in this spot this week, but, unlike the Chargers, I’m not taking the Bengals here for a few reasons. For one, the Bengals haven’t been as good in December as the Chargers have been recently. Two, the Bengals aren’t in their 2nd of two road games, like the Chargers are, a good spot. Three, this line is way off. The Bengals exorcised some of their primetime game demons last week in an impressive home victory over the Broncos, but they still rank just 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.96% rate, as opposed to 72.43% for their opponents, a differential of -0.47%. The Steelers, meanwhile, rank 6th, moving the chains at a 78.52% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 4.57%. I’m going with the Steelers, though I’m not confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Steelers, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)

This is the toughest game of the week for me to predict. These two teams are almost identical in terms of rate of moving the chains differential this year, with Pittsburgh coming in 6th, and Kansas City coming in 7th. The Steelers have the better offense, moving the chains at a 78.23% rate, but allow opponents to move the chains at a 73.81% rate, a differential of 4.42%. Meanwhile, the Chiefs struggle, relatively, offensively, moving the chains at a 73.98% rate, but only allow opponents to move the chains at a 69.76% rate, a differential of 4.21%.

The Chiefs seem to be in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation in which teams are 124-94 ATS since 2002, but it’s hard to classify this as a good spot, considering they have an equally big game next week against San Diego. Even though both of these teams are will be home favorites next week, neither as an easy game as the Chiefs host the Chargers and the Steelers host the Bengals in game that will have significant implications for the playoff race. Both of these two teams are essentially in the same spot with both teams controlling their own destiny to make the playoffs, if they win each of the next two games. Between that and how similar they’ve played on the field, this game is borderline impossible to call, but I’m going with the Chiefs and fading a slight public lean.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 21

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +3

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Falcons, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (5-8)

The Packers lost last week in Green Bay, but now they return home. The Falcons are 32-21-1 ATS at home (39-15 straight up) since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy, including 8-3 ATS as home underdogs, as they are here. The fact that they lost last week actually makes it more likely that they cover this week as they’re very good off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 27-14 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 18-9 ATS at home and 6-1 ATS as home underdogs.

The Steelers, meanwhile, have never been good in these types of games. They are 7-20 ATS since 2007 (when Mike Tomlin took over) as non-divisional road favorites. They always get caught off guard by these types of opponents and I definitely expect that to happen again here with the Steelers sandwiched in between a big upset win in Cincinnati and another very important game with the Chiefs next week that could be a playoff tiebreaker.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Atlanta. For one, Julio Jones is going to be at the very best less than 100% this week with a hip problem, which is an issue, considering how big of a part of their offense he is. Two, the Steelers are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, road favorites off of a road win as underdogs are just 32-28 ATS since 2002, so it’s not that powerful for a trend. The Falcons should be the right side, especially with the public on Pittsburgh.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1)

The Bengals have been very good at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-2-1 at home since 2013, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.40 points per game, going 11-4 against the spread. They are also in a good spot because they are projected to be 2 point favorites in Cleveland next week. Teams are 116-84 ATS since 1989 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Despite that, I like the Steelers this week for a few reasons.

For one, they are only 2 point favorites next week so the line could move to the Browns being favored next week depending on the results of this week. That would put the Bengals in a horrible spot as divisional home favorites are 20-52 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. The Browns beat the Bengals earlier this season so that game on the horizon could potentially provide a distraction for them.

Two, this line is off because the Bengals are overrated. The Bengals don’t deserve to be favorites here. They rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 71.78% rate, as opposed to 73.37% for their opponents, a differential of -1.59%. The Steelers, meanwhile, rank 6th, moving the chains at a 77.86% rate, as opposed to 74.10% for their opponents, a differential of 3.75%. They’ve been the much better of these two teams this season. Even as good as the Bengals have been at home over the past 2 years, they only have a rate of moving the chains differential of 1.67% at home this season, moving them at a 74.49% rate, as opposed to 72.82% for their opponents. I’m not that confident in the Steelers, but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Saints, Steelers, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)

I am legitimately shocked. The Saints had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Drew Brees under center and Sean Payton on the sideline and they had 3 straight home games as favorites to move to 7-4 and run away with the pathetic NFC South. And they lost all 3. The types of things that are plaguing this team are the types of things that usually even out in the long run, but they have yet to do so for this team. They have a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have a -9 turnover margin and a -3 return touchdown margin, both powered by a 42.31% fumble recovery rate that ranks 28th in the NFL.

The Saints’ defense isn’t any good at all, but their offense has been moving the ball very efficiently, leading the NFL in first downs by a wide margin. They rank 10th in the NFL, moving the chains at a league best 80.65% rate, as opposed to 77.51% for their opponents, a differential of 3.13%. That’s why I think they’re better than their record and why they are going to be underrated and provide value going forward. However, this week they play the Steelers, who have been better than New Orleans both in record and actual level of play. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been great recently, and the Steelers have a strong homefield advantage.

The Steelers rank 8th, moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 73.49% for their opponents, a differential of 3.93%. At home, the Steelers are 37-27 ATS at home in the Mike Tomlin era. Meanwhile, the Saints are 4-11 ATS on the road over the past 2 seasons. We’re not getting any line value with the Saints on the road as 4.5 point underdogs here in Pittsburgh, a superior team with a strong homefield advantage.

However, I’m still taking the Saints here as long as the line is higher than 4 because they’re in a good spot. For one, Drew Brees is 21-7 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, though that hasn’t been the case this season and he’s only 5-3 ATS on the road off of a loss. Brees is also 18-12 ATS as an underdog since coming to the Saints in 2006 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, though just 14-10 ATS on the road.

The Steelers also have a tough road game in Cincinnati next week, while the Saints return home for to play the Panthers, a team they’ve already beaten, in a game they’ll almost definitely be favored in. Non-divisional road underdogs are 119-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites, while non-divisional home favorites are 101-124 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. Combining the two, teams are 102-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m not confident in the Saints at all on the road against a tough opponent though. This line isn’t high enough for me to be confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 New Orleans Saints 31

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +4.5

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Steelers, Titans, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-7)

The Steelers fell flat on the road in New York last week, losing to the previously 1-win Jets 20-13. That was a surprise for a lot of people, but the Steelers have had a lot of recent struggles as non-divisional road favorites. They are 7-19 ATS since 2007 (when Mike Tomlin took over) as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-14 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of a field goal or more. They are once again in that situation here as 6 point road favorites in Tennessee. However, they are coming off of a loss, which is a different dynamic as the Steelers are 3-3 ATS as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss. It’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely worth noting. It’s also worth noting that this is their first time as non-divisional road favorites off of a loss as non-divisional road favorites in that time period.

The Titans are also really bad so this line might not be high enough. The Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 67.47% rate, as opposed to 75.40% for their opponents, a differential of -7.93%. Meanwhile, the Steelers rank 10th, moving the chains at a 76.49% rate, as opposed to 73.46% for their opponents, a differential of 3.03%. They also have another tough game on the horizon in Philadelphia, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 22-46 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2012. I’m still taking the Titans out of principle, especially with the public all over Pittsburgh, but I’m not confident at all.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8)

This feels like a classic Steeler let down game. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers are just 7-18 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-15 ATS off of a win, 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more, and 2-12 ATS as non-divisional road favorites by 3 or more off a loss. So, as weird as this sounds, I actually really like the Jets this week. As bad as they’ve been this season, everyone covers the spread every once in a while. Teams are 61-39 ATS since 1989 on an 8+ game losing streak, including 55-32 ATS as underdogs and 25-16 ATS as home underdogs. They could easily catch the Steelers off guard, as many teams do as non-divisional home underdogs against them. It doesn’t help the Steelers that their already thin defense will be without Ryan Shazier and Troy Polamalu this week.

This line has moved from 5.5 and 6 at opening to 4.5 and in some places 4. On one hand, I wish I got this line earlier because Jets +6 would have been such a great bet. On the other hand, that line movement suggests the sharps are on the Jets, as the public is all over the Steelers, which gives me more confidence in the Jets, even with the line moving down. The Steelers are 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.23% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 3.28%. On the other hand, the Jets are 27th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.20% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of -3.98%. That means this line should be about 4.5, even before you take the aforementioned trends into account. If you can still get this at anything higher than 4, the Jets are absolutely the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Jets 23

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

The Steelers put up 51 points last week in an impressive 51-34 victory over a very good Indianapolis team. However, last week’s performance could easily hurt them this week. Underdogs are 12-27 ATS since 1989 after scoring 40 or more points as underdogs. It makes sense. The Steelers could easily be overconfident this week, which would be really dangerous for them considering the odds makers have deemed them underdogs in back-to-back weeks at home. The odds makers generally have a strong feel for teams, so the Steelers probably aren’t nearly as good as they probably think they are right now. The public also probably thinks they’re better than they are too as they are on the underdog here. I love fading the public, especially when they’re on an underdog. Whenever the public thinks a different team should be favored than the odds makers, it generally is bad news for them.

We’re not really getting any line value with the Ravens. The Ravens have played well this season, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.72% rate, as opposed to 71.19% for their opponents, a differential of 5.53%. The Steelers, however, are also having a solid season in that aspect, ranking 8th, moving the chains at a 76.87% rate, as opposed to 74.10% for their opponents, a differential of 2.76%. That suggests this line should be right about where it is (Baltimore -1). However, if we take into account that last week’s performance by the Steelers was a fluke, we get a little bit more line value, as the Steelers ranked 13th going into last week, with a differential of 0.87%.

The Ravens are also in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. This would probably be more powerful if the Ravens were underdogs here, as teams are 108-70 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 92-48 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. However, the Ravens are barely favorites here on the road and going off of that, road favorites are 34-23 ATS off of a road loss since 2008 as long as it’s the 2nd of two road favorites, including 13-7 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as road favorites. The Steelers are also divisional home underdogs in a night game, a situation teams are 30-59 ATS in since 1989.

Both teams have very easy games next week, putting them in good spots. The Ravens host the Titans, while the Steelers head to New York to take on the Jets. The Ravens will almost definitely be at least double digit favorites next week and teams are 69-55 ATS since 2010 before being double digit favorites. The Steelers, meanwhile, will almost definitely be at least field goal favorites next week on the road and teams are 79-54 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 3 or more on the road. These two things cancel out and at the end of the day I like the Ravens a decent amount this week.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Colts, Steelers, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

The Colts are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, or at least they’ve played like it through 7 games. With the exception of a 3 point home loss as 3 point home favorites to the Eagles, the Colts have covered every game this season. Both of their losses came against teams that currently have one loss and they came by a combined 10 points. Last week, they completely dominated Cincinnati 27-0, beating a solid team in embarrassing fashion, forcing 8 straight three and outs to start the season.

Andrew Luck is playing like the type of quarterback he was expected to become, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average 7.72 YPA, 19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground on 30 carries. The defense has held up as well. Through 6 games, they are moving the chains at a 78.44% rate, as opposed to 67.65% for their opponents, a differential of 10.79% that is best in the NFL by over 3 percentage points (7.40% is the next best).

The Steelers, meanwhile, move the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 73.24% for their opponents, a differential of 0.87% that ranks 13th in the NFL. That suggests we’re getting significant line value with the Colts as mere field goal favorites here, even on the road. The Colts should be the right side, but I don’t like the idea of betting on such a heavy public favorite (more than 90% of the action is on Indianapolis) without a powerful trend supporting them, as the odds makers always come out on top.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: Low

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