Quarterbacks

The Steelers snuck into the post-season last year at 10-7, but they needed a 9-2 record in one-score games to do that, which is highly unlikely to happen again in 2024. In terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Steelers were below average, at -0.39 and -0.78% respectively. If the Steelers want to make it back to the post-season in 2024, they will almost definitely need to be better in both of those metrics, especially since the AFC figures to be even tougher than a year ago, with Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers both returning from injury plagued seasons.

There are some reasons why the Steelers could be better in those metrics than a year ago. One is an overhauled quarterback position. Two off-seasons ago, the Steelers took a shot on Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but he struggled mightily across two seasons as the starter, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 6.27 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 24 starts. This off-season, the Steelers gave up on Kenny Pickett, trading him to the Eagles for minimal compensation, and also let Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky, who also made starts last season, leave in free agency. 

In total, the three quarterbacks who started for the Steelers last season combined for 63.8% completion, 6.76 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, a QB rating of 84.6, 21st in the NFL, a big part of the reason why the Steelers’ offense struggled last season, ranking 22nd in yards per play and 27th in first down rate. The Steelers didn’t make any big splash additions at the quarterback position this off-season, but they took fliers on Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, giving Wilson a 1-year, 1.21 million dollar deal and trading away a conditional late round pick to take on the remaining 1 year and 3.23 million left on Fields’ contract. It wouldn’t be hard for them to be better than what the Steelers had a year ago, even if only by default.

Wilson is considered the favorite for the starting job, but it will be a competition between him and Fields and it’s very possible both see starts at some point this season. Wilson was once one of the better quarterbacks in the league, making 158 starts for the Seahawks over a 10-year period from 2012-2021, completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 292 touchdowns, and 87 interceptions, while adding 4,689 yards and 23 touchdowns on 846 carries (5.54 YPC). 

However, in two seasons since, Wilson has completed 63.3% of his passes for an average of 7.09 YPA, 42 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in 30 starts for the Broncos, while adding 618 yards and 6 touchdowns on 135 carries (4.58 YPC). Now going into his age 36 season, Wilson’s best days are almost definitely behind him, but he’s not totally over the hill age wise and could bounce back at least somewhat in his new home. At the very least, he was a worthwhile addition on a minimum contract that allows the Steelers to invest heavily in the rest of their roster.

Justin Fields, meanwhile, is a younger option, going into his age 25 season, and the 2021 11th overall pick has a much higher upside than the aging Wilson, but he’s been mediocre throughout his career, completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 6.97 YPA, 40 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions, with 356 carries for 2,220 yards and 14 touchdowns (6.24 YPC) in 38 starts in three seasons with the Bears. He was also a worthwhile addition at a cheap price, but, like Wilson, he could also prove to be an underwhelming option. Wilson and Fields might be better by default than what the Steelers had at quarterback last season, but this still looks like a well below average quarterback room.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Steelers also invested heavily in their offensive line this off-season, using 1st, 2nd, and 4th round picks on offensive tackle Troy Fautanu, center Zach Frazier, and guard Mason McCormick. This has been a multi-year rebuilding process on the offensive line, as the Steelers added tackle Broderick Jones in the first round and Isaac Seumalo on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal last off-season and added guard James Daniels on a 3-year, 26.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago. 

This offensive line was still mediocre last season, run blocking pretty well, ranking 13th on PFF in team run blocking grade, but struggling mightily in pass protection, ranking 31st. In 2024, they have a good chance to improve. Jones, the 14th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, took over as the starting right tackle in week 9 of his rookie season, sending veteran Chukwuma Okorafor to the bench. Jones wasn’t really an upgrade over Okorafor, posting a 60.7 PFF grade to 60.4 for Okorafor, but he has much more upside long-term. 

Meanwhile, Troy Fautanu, the 20th overall pick in this year’s draft, will likely take the starting job at left tackle from incumbent Dan Moore, a 2021 4th round pick who had made 49 starts in three seasons in the league, but has mostly struggled, with PFF grades of 57.8, 62.4, and 51.8. With Okorafor being let go this off-season, Moore will take his place as the swing tackle. Fautanu and Jones are still a young, inexperienced starting duo, and Fautanu in particular could have some growing pains in year one, but both have huge upsides and it wouldn’t be hard for them to be an upgrade over the Steelers’ tackles last season, when Jones was a rookie and Dan Moore struggled in 16 starts.

Second round rookie Zack Frazier could also have growing pains in year one, but it also wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over incumbent starting center Mason Cole, who had a 57.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season and subsequently was released this off-season. Meanwhile, fourth round rookie Mason McCormick will almost definitely begin his career as a reserve, with veterans James Daniels and Isaac Seumalo still locked in as the starting guards.

Daniels, a second round pick in 2018, has made 80 starts in six seasons in the league, finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons. He’s only finished above 70 in one season, with a 71.8 grade back in 2021, but he’s still only in his age 27 season and should remain at least a decent starter this season, if an unspectacular one. Daniels is also a versatile player who has 8 career starts at center and could move there in case the rookie Frazier struggles or gets injured.

Seumalo, meanwhile, is a 2016 3rd round pick and has made 71 starts over the past six seasons, finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons, with finishes above 70 in each of the previous three seasons. He is going into his age 31 season and could start to decline, but he has a good chance to remain at least a decent starter, even if he’s not at his best. Along with the rookie McCormick, the Steelers also have veteran Nate Herbig as a reserve option at guard and he’s a solid option, finishing above 60 on PFF in three of the past four seasons, with 30 starts over that stretch. This is still an unspectacular offensive line, but they have a good chance to be better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Steelers’ passing game was obviously a weakness last season, with poor quarterback play and an offensive line that struggled in pass protection, but that offensive line was much better in run blocking and the Steelers had much more talent at the running back position than they did at the quarterback position, led by Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, a pair of talented running backs. Harris and Warren return in 2024 and should have similar roles to a year ago.

Harris outcarried Warren 255 to 149, even though Warren had a big edge in YPC at 5.26 to 4.06. That’s been the case for the past couple seasons. Harris, a first round pick in 2021, has 834 carries over the past three seasons, second most in the NFL over that span, but he only has a 3.92 YPC average, while Warren, a 2022 undrafted free agent, had a 4.92 YPC average across 77 carries as a rookie, before seeing a slightly bigger role last season.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Steelers’ offense would be better off if Warren overtook Harris as the starter though. Harris’ YPC average isn’t nearly as good as Warren’s, but Harris gets most of the hard yards and has a solid 47.2% carry success rate in his career, only slightly behind Warren, who has a 50.9%% carry success rate in his career. Harris is also a much bigger back (6-1 240 vs. 5-8 215) and is more suited to a bigger role, while Warren could possibly wear down and not be as efficient in a larger role. I would expect both to see similar carry totals in 2024 as they did in 2023.

Warren is the primary passing down back though, with a 61/370/0 slash line and a 1.45 yards per route run average last season, as opposed to 29/170/0 and 0.85 yards per route run for Harris. Warren also averaged 1.24 yards per route run as a rookie, while Harris has averaged just 0.90 yards per route run in his career. Warren and Harris are a good tandem that complements each other’s abilities well and both are still only in their age 26 seasons, so they should continue playing at a similar level in 2024.

Harris has never missed a game with injury, while Warren has missed just one, but if either misses time with injury in 2024, the other would likely take over an expanded role, with #3 running back Cordarrelle Patterson taking over the backup role. Signed as a free agent this off-season, Patterson has a 1.30 yards per route run average and 298 catches in 170 career games, as well as a 4.89 YPC average on 514 carries, so he’s a well-rounded player who can play different roles, but he’s going into his age 33 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Overall, this is a pretty solid backfield.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One big concern for this offense is the receiving corps. A year ago, George Pickens and Diontae Johnson led the way with slash lines of 63/1140/5 and 51/717/5 respectively, while averaging 2.11 yards per route run and 1.97 yards per route run respectively, but after them the Steelers’ third leading receiver was running back Jaylen Warren with 370 receiving yards. Poor quarterback play didn’t help matters, but the Steelers’ receiving corps deserves a lot of blame and, overall, this was a really thin group a year ago. Making matters worse, the Steelers traded away Johnson this off-season, without really replacing him. The Steelers also lost their #3 receiver from a year ago, Allen Robinson, although he won’t really be missed, after a 34/280/0 slash line and a 0.70 yards per route run average.

To try and replace the receivers they lost this off-season, the Steelers signed veteran Van Jefferson and used a third round pick Roman Wilson and they will probably give a bigger role to 2022 4th round pick Calvin Austin, but all three of those players are underwhelming starting options, leaving this group very thin behind Pickens. Jefferson was a second round pick in 2020, but has only averaged 1.16 yards per route run in four seasons in the league and is already going into his age 28 season, so he’s running out of time to make good on his upside. Roman Wilson has upside, but is still just a mid-round rookie and could easily struggle in a significant year one role. Calvin Austin, meanwhile, has averaged just 0.79 yards per route run in two seasons in the league and doesn’t seem like he’s about to take a huge step forward and be a starting caliber receiver.

George Pickens, a 2022 2nd round pick who is only going into his age 23 season, could take on a bigger target share, but he’ll need to develop more as a short-to-intermediate route runner for that to happen, as 60.4% of his targets, 49.2% of his catches, and 75.5% of his receiving yardage came 10+ yards downfield in 2023. As a rookie in 2022, it was a similar story, as Pickens had a 52/801/4 slash line and 1.38 yards per route run, with 64.3% of his targets, 53.8% of his catches, and 80.0% of his receiving yardage 10+ yards downfield. He still could have further untapped upside, but will need to become more than just a deep threat to take on the bigger target share the Steelers will need him to. 

Given the situation at wide receiver, expect the Steelers to continue to heavily target their running backs in the passing game and they could also give a big target share to tight end Pat Freiermuth. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Freiermuth had a 60/497/7 slash line with 1.26 yards per route run on 79 targets as a rookie, then took a step forward with a 63/732/2 slash line with 1.68 yards per route run on 98 targets in 2022, but took step back in 2023, averaging just 1.12 yards per route run in a season in which he also missed five games with injury and finished with just a 32/308/2 slash line on just 47 targets. He’s still only going into his age 26 season in 2024 though and should have plenty of opportunity as a short-to-immediate target in this passing game, so he could have an impressive statistical season if he’s healthy and can rediscover his 2022 form, still only in his age 26 season. 

The #2 tight end job will likely go to Darnell Washington, who only caught 7 passes and averaged 0.44 yards per route run as a third round rookie in 2023, but who is a good blocker and has the upside to take a step forward as a receiver in his second season in the league in 2024. In total, Washington played 509 snaps as a rookie, with 324 of them coming on running plays. The Steelers also have Connor Heyward, who isn’t the blocker Washington is, but who took over Freiermuth targets when he was hurt last season, finishing the season with a 23/167/0 slash line on 34 targets, with a 15/118/0 slash line on 20 targets in the five games Freiermuth missed. In total, he played 401 snaps last season, with 226 of them coming on passing plays.

Heyward, a 2022 6th round pick, also played 175 snaps and had a 12/151/1 slash line as a rookie and he has a decent, but unspectacular 1.14 yards per route run average between the two seasons. Freiermuth would probably have to get hurt again for Heyward to see a significant role again, but he’s not bad insurance to have. Overall, this is a below average receiving corps with a lot of issues behind #1 receiver George Pickens, who is a pretty one-dimensional deep threat.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Steelers’ defense was their better side of the ball last season, ranking 23rd in yards per play allowed and 9th in first down rate allowed. The strength of this defense was the edge defender position. TJ Watt is a well-known former Defensive Player of the Year and he played at that level again in 2023, with a 91.9 PFF grade across 930 snaps, 19 sacks, 20 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate, but Alex Highsmith, who plays opposite Watt, wasn’t far behind, with a 90.3 PFF grade across 909 snaps, 7 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. 

Watt is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but, even if he does decline in 2024, he’s starting from such a high base point that he should remain one of the best edge defenders in the league regardless. The 2017 1st round pick has finished above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, with five straight seasons above 80 and three seasons over 90, while totaling 76.5 sacks, 89 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in 83 games over those past five seasons.

Highsmith, on the other hand, is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he also had PFF grades of 72.0, 67.2, and 78.0 in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, so, even if he regresses in 2024, he should remain at least an above average starter and, still only in his age 27 season, it’s possible the 2020 3rd round pick has permanently turned a corner and will remain at a similar level to how he played last season.

Markus Golden also thrived as the top reserve last season, only playing 230 snaps, but recording a 86.5 PFF grade, with 4 sacks, 6 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in limited action. He wasn’t brought back this off-season, but the Steelers should still have at least one good reserve option in Nick Herbig, a 2023 4th round pick who flashed a lot of potential with a 80.7 PFF grade on 191 snaps as a rookie. He’s still a projection to a larger role, but won’t have to play too much unless Watt or Highsmith miss an extended time with injury and he has a good chance to be an above average reserve and make up somewhat for the loss of Golden.

The Steelers don’t have much depth behind Watt, Highsmith, and Herbig, which is only a problem if one of them misses significant time with injury, but an injury to one of three is definitely a possibility and the rest of this position group consists of 2022 6th round pick Kyron Johnson, who has played 22 snaps in two seasons in the league, 2022 undrafted free agent Jeremiah Moon, who has played 99 snaps in two seasons in the league, 2023 undrafted free agent David Perales, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 2024 undrafted free agent Jacoby Windman. It’s likely at least one of those aforementioned players will have to play at least somewhat of a role at some point this season. Still, with the talent at the top of this position group, this is still one of the best edge defender groups in the league.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Interior defender Cameron Heyward has been a fixture of this team for years, joining this team as a first round pick in 2011 and excelling in his prime. In a 9-year stretch from 2014-2022, Heyward totaled 71 sacks, 91 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 135 games, while playing at a high level against the run, averaging 53.7 snaps per game, and finishing above 80 on PFF seven times. However, Heyward fell to a 71.9 PFF grade with 2 sacks, 1 hit, and a 6.5% pressure rate in 2023, while playing 442 snaps in just 11 games due to injury. Now going into his age 35 season, Heyward’s best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily continue declining further. He has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter, but that’s not a guarantee at this stage.

With Heyward missing time last season, this interior defender group was led in snaps played by Larry Ogunjobi, who played 766 snaps, but was mostly a snap eater, with just a 59.2 PFF grade. That’s been the case for Ogunjobi for years, as he’s averaged 746 snaps per season over the past six seasons, but has never finished with a season-long grade better than 61.7, while finishing below 60 in four seasons. Now going into his age 30 season, Ogunjobi is unlikely to improve and could possibly decline and be a liability.

With Heyward and Ogunjobi aging, the Steelers will hope to get more out of Keeanu Benton, who showed a lot of promise as a second round rookie in 2023. He only played 483 snaps and had just 1 sack, but he added 7 hits and a 8.1% pressure rate and finished the season with an overall grade of 74.8 on PFF. Now going into his second season in the league, he could be ready for a bigger role, but he still is a projection to that larger role and won’t necessarily be as efficient. He has a good chance to at least be a solid starter, but he’s still relatively raw and inexperienced.

The Steelers also have a bunch of depth options behind their top-3 at the interior defender position. Montravius Adams (416 snaps), Armon Watts (273 snaps), DeMarvin Leal (206 snaps), and Isaiahh Loudermilk (180 snaps) all played roles as reserves last season and the only one of those four who wasn’t retained this off-season is Watts, who was essentially replaced by veteran free agent acquisition Dean Lowry. All four of those options, including Lowry, all finished below 60 on PFF last season though, so the Steelers will probably be hoping they don’t need to lean too heavily on any of them. 

Lowry is the most experienced of the bunch, starting 84 of the 120 games he’s played in eight seasons in the league, while averaging 33.2 snaps per game, and he finished above 60 on PFF in five of his first six seasons in the league, but he has fallen to PFF grades of 59.3 and 47.4 on snap counts of 482 and 237 over the past two seasons and, now going into his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to improve significantly and will probably be a liability, even in a smaller role. Adams is also a veteran, selected in the 3rd round in 2017, but he’s never really lived up to his draft slot, playing just 225 snaps per season in seven seasons in the league and finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those seven seasons, including a 58.3 PFF grade last season. He is likely to be similarly underwhelming in 2024. 

Loudermilk and Leal, on the other hand, are more recent draft picks, but they also are underwhelming options. Loudermilk has finished with PFF grades of 47.5, 42.2, and 55.9 on a total of just 584 snaps since going in the 5th round in 2021, while Leal has finished with PFF grades of 46.0 and 47.5 on a total of just 381 snaps since going in the 3rd round in 2022. Leal could still have some untapped upside, only going into his age 23 season, but he needs to take a big step forward to even be a decent rotational option, while Loudermilk is already heading into his age 27 season and wasn’t a high draft pick, so he might not have any untapped upside. This isn’t a bad position group overall, but they have some aging starters and some depth concerns.

Grade: B

Linebackers

One reason this team could potentially be better than a year ago is the addition of Patrick Queen at the linebacker position, after the Steelers stole him away from division rival Baltimore to a 3-year, 41 million dollar deal. A first round pick in 2020, Queen took a couple years to develop, struggling in his first two seasons in the league, but he has broken out with PFF grades of 70.0 and 73.1 on snap counts of 1,024 and 1,120 over the past two seasons, so he seems to have permanently turned a corner as an above average every down player and, still only in his age 25 season, he could have further untapped upside. He will continue in an every down role in Pittsburgh and figures to provide a big boost to this linebacking corps.

The other linebacker job will go to one of two veteran holdovers, Cole Holcomb or Elandon Roberts. Holcomb is better suited for an every down role than Roberts, playing in 58.8 snaps per game over the past four seasons, while mostly being at least decent, with PFF grades of 72.0, 56.7, 66.6, and 65.5, but he’s also missed 25 games with injury over that stretch. He’s probably the favorite for the starting job opposite Queen, but could easily miss more time with injury this season. Roberts, meanwhile, is mostly a run stopping specialist, as his 72.5 PFF grade across 581 snaps in 16 games last season was the first season of his career in which he played more than 500 snaps in a season and had a PFF grade over 60. 

Roberts is now going into his age 30 season and isn’t suited for more than a situational role, but he’s at least good depth to have in case Holcomb gets hurt again. The Steelers also used a third round pick on Payton Wilson to give them more depth at the position and he’d likely work in tandem with Roberts as a passing down specialist if Holcomb or Queen miss time. They’re much better depth than last season, when Mykal Walker (293 snaps), Myles Jack (131 snaps), Kwon Alexander (362 snaps), and Mark Robinson (150 snaps) all played roles with Holcomb out and all finished below 60 on PFF. Overall, this is a much deeper linebacking corps than a year ago and the addition of Patrick Queen gives them a high level talent they didn’t have a year ago either.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Steelers also added safety DeShon Elliott to their defense this off-season. A 6th round pick in 2018, Elliott has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including a career best 72.6 PFF grade on 926 snaps last season, and he’s still only in his age 27 season, so he should continue at least being a solid starter. The one concern with Elliott is durability, as he’s missed 42 games in his career due to injury, though just five of those have come in the past two seasons. 

However, it shouldn’t be hard for Elliott to be better or more available than the player he is replacing, Keanu Neal, who had a 59.6 PFF grade across 430 snaps in 9 games last season and who is no longer with the team. Elliott should also be an upgrade over Damontae Kazee, who started in Neal’s absence and had a 60.4 PFF grade. Kazee played 771 snaps in total last season, not only filling in for Neal when he was injured, but also filling in for Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was limited to 549 snaps in 10 games by injuries of his own.

Fitzpatrick should be healthier this season which, along with the addition of Elliott, should also be a boost for this defense. Fitzpatrick had a 71.3 PFF grade last season, but that was actually a relatively down year for him, as he had PFF grades of 79.8, 79.5, and 82.4 respectively in 2019, 2020, and 2022. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Fitzpatrick should be healthier and probably also better in 2024. At his best, he’s one of the best safeties in the league. Elliott and Fitzpatrick should be an above average safety duo.

Kazee remains as the #3 safety, where he’s a better fit. He’s finished above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, including two seasons above 70, and he’s started 62 of the 92 games he’s played, while averaging 45.0 snaps per game, but he’s heading into his age 31 season and is better off as an above average depth option at this stage of his career. Kazee also has the versatility to play slot cornerback, where he might need to, given the Steelers’ lack of depth at the cornerback position.

The Steelers bring back their top cornerback from last season, Joey Porter, who had a 65.2 PFF grade across 802 snaps last season and could take a step forward in 2024, as 2023 2nd round pick with a high upside. The Steelers also added Donte Jackson and Cameron Sutton this off-season, to replace departures Patrick Peterson (60.5 PFF grade across 1,096 snaps), Levi Wallace (57.8 PFF grade across 726 snaps), and Chandon Sullivan (61.2 PFF grade across 422 snaps), but Sutton is expected to be suspended for eight games for an off-the-field incident and the Steelers’ cornerback depth is very suspect behind Porter, Jackson, and Sutton.

Donte Jackson has started 76 of the 80 games he’s played in six seasons in the league, but he’s had some durability issues, missing 19 games total and he’s been a bit inconsistent, finishing above 60 on PFF four times, with a career best 70.4 in 2020, but also finishing below 60 twice. Sutton, meanwhile, has started 48 of the 49 games he’s played over the past three seasons, receiving PFF grades of 61.9 and 71.6 in 2021 and 2022, before falling to a 56.0 PFF grade in 2023. Both are decent, but unspectacular options, though obviously Sutton suspension is a big concern.

When Sutton or any of the Steelers’ other cornerbacks are out, their options other than moving Kazee to the slot are 2023 5th round pick Darius Rush, who played just 39 snaps as a rookie, 2023 7th round pick Cory Trice, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, 2020 4th round pick Josiah Scott, who has played just 577 snaps in four seasons in the league, 6th round rookie Ryan Watts, and veteran Anthony Averett, who played 807 snaps in 2021, but struggled with a 56.3 PFF grade and has otherwise played just 927 snaps in five seasons in the league, with none of those coming last season, when he spent the season on practice squads. This is a pretty good secondary, especially at safety, but they have some depth concerns at cornerback.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Steelers made the post-season at 10-7 last season, but their 9-2 record in one-score games is unsustainable, so they will need to be significantly better this season to make it back to the post-season. There are reasons to believe they will be improved, such as their retooled quarterback room and the addition of off-ball linebacker Patrick Queen on defense, but they probably will not be improved enough to make the post-season in an AFC that is even more loaded than a year ago.

Update: After evaluating every team and looking at schedules, the Steelers have one of the toughest schedules in the league this season, making it an uphill battle for them to even come close to making the post-season.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC North

Quarterback

The Steelers started last season just 2-6, but won 7 of their final 9 games to make a late push towards a playoff spot, only coming short of a wild card spot on a tiebreaker. The Steelers were without dominant edge defender TJ Watt, the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, for seven of their first eight games, after he got injured week 1, and he returned for each of the final 9 games of the season, so it might seem that the Steelers will just be able to continue the run they went on in the second half of 2022 into 2023 as long as Watt is healthy, but that isn’t the full story.

For starters, a big part of the reason the Steelers had more success in the second half of the season was their schedule got much easier. While five of their first eight games came against playoff qualifiers, just three of their final nine games did and two of those games came against a Ravens team that was starting backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. When that is considered, it seems more like the Steelers were more or less an average team the whole season and, while the return of Watt obviously helped, it didn’t suddenly turn them from a bottom dweller to a contender. On top of that, while Watt should be healthier this season, the Steelers barely had any other injuries last season, having the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, which will almost definitely not happen again in 2023.

There is one piece of good news for the Steelers’ chances of taking a step forward as a team in 2023 though and it’s the play of quarterback Kenny Pickett down the stretch of his rookie season. In his final five full starts of the season, Pickett totaled a grade of 90.2 on PFF, showing the promise that made him the 20th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, after an underwhelming start with a 61.1 grade prior to those final five full starts. His stats in those five starts, 59.6% completion, 6.48 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions, don’t jump off the page, but that has a lot to do with the lack of talent around him on offense. 

In fact, while Pickett’s season-long stats, 63.0% completion, 6.18 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, look pretty mediocre, he actually ranked 18th among quarterbacks with a 75.5 PFF grade, even with the slow start he had to the season, as a big part of the problem with this Steelers’ offense was the supporting cast around the quarterback. Pickett’s last five starts are a small sample size, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in year two and, if he can get better play from his supporting cast as well, that should lead to a significant jump in statistical production.

Pickett only really played 12 games as a rookie, sitting on the bench for most of the first three games of the season and missing close to two full games due to injury late in the year, with veteran Mitch Trubisky starting in his absence. Trubisky had a similar season, with a 76.6 PFF grade that ranked 15th among quarterbacks, but mediocre production, completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. 

Trubisky was the 2nd overall pick in 2017 and started for most of his first four seasons in the league with the Bears (50 starts total) and, when he signed with the Steelers last off-season, it was with the intention of competing for the starting job, after spending the year as the backup in Buffalo in 2021. However, this off-season Trubisky was willing to sign long-term with the Steelers as a backup, signing a 2-year extension that pays him 19.25 million over the next three seasons, solid backup money, but a good value for the Steelers to keep a player who can be a low end starter for stretches if needed. 

Trubisky never panned out as a starter in Chicago, with a 87.2 QB rating and a max PFF grade of 66.4 for a season, but he wasn’t horrible either and he seemed to take a little bit of a step forward in 2023. Still only in his age 29 season, he could still have some untapped potential. Trubisky is a good option to have for a Steelers team that doesn’t totally know what it has in Pickett yet. This isn’t a great quarterback room, but it could be worse and there is potential if Pickett continues playing better than he did early in his rookie season.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Steelers had an unsustainably low amount of injuries overall last season and, with that unlikely to remain the case again in 2023, that is a threat to an offensive supporting cast that was already mediocre last season and that needs to take a step forward for this team to take a step forward. However, the Steelers did make some additions to this offense this off-season, which could offset their expected increase in injuries. 

The two most notable offensively upgrades were on the offensive line, where the Steelers used a first round pick on Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones and signed veteran guard Isaac Seumalo to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal, adding to an offensive line that ranked 14th in pass blocking grade and 16th in run blocking grade last season, despite remarkably not having a single starter miss a game due to injury, allowing them to start the same five offensive linemen in all 17 starts, an incredible rare feat.

Jones could start at either left tackle or right tackle as a rookie, pushing either left tackle Dan Moore or right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor for their job. Moore was a 4th round pick in 2021 and has been starting since week 1 of his rookie year, but he was mediocre in year one with a 57.8 PFF grade in 16 starts and, while he was better in year two, he was a 62.4 grade, he could still stand to be upgraded and might not have a huge upside. 

Okorafor, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has been starting for three seasons, after playing minimally in his first two seasons in the league. Okorafor has 48 starts over those past three seasons, but he has been middling at best, with grades of 57.5, 63.6, and 61.2 respectively, so he too could stand to be upgraded. Jones may have some growing pains as a rookie, but he still could easily be an upgrade at either tackle spot, regardless of where he starts, and he obviously has more long-term upside than either Moore or Okorafor. 

Seumalo, meanwhile, is added to a guard group where Kevin Dotson and James Daniels received grades of 65.4 and 66.9 respectively from PFF last season. Neither player was bad, but Seumalo finished 7th among guards on PFF with a 75.2 grade last season, so he could easily be an upgrade. He does have some downside, as he heads into his age 30 season and is coming off of a career best year, but he should remain at least a solid starter and, with the money the Steelers are playing him, he figures to displace either Dotson or Daniels. 

Daniels was signed to a 3-year, 26.5 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season, so he figures to remain a starter somewhere, especially after his 5th straight season with a PFF grade over 60 (65 starts), but he does have some experience at center (8 starts in 2019) and moving him there could give the Steelers’ their best five starting offensive linemen. Dotson has received grades of 66.2, 64.5, and 65.4 in three seasons (30 starts) since being drafted in the 4th round in 2020, so there’s a good argument for him keeping his starting job, which would require Daniels to move inside.

It’s possible the Steelers keep Daniels at guard and move Dotson to the bench though, as incumbent center Mason Cole is also coming off of a solid season with a 67.1 PFF grade, in the first year of a 3-year, 15.75 million dollar deal the Steelers signed him to last off-season. Cole could continue that play into 2023, but the 2018 3rd round pick finished below 60 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league (39 starts) prior to last season and might not be quite as good again in 2023. He might have permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter, but it’s possible he struggles and/or winds up getting benched, on a deeper offensive line than a year ago.

The Steelers also added veteran Nate Herbig in free agency to give them more depth and they still have 2021 3rd round pick Kendrick Green, who struggled with a 52.4 grade on 975 snaps (15 starts) as a rookie and didn’t play a snap as a reserve in year two, but who could still have some upside long-term and, because of that, he is an interesting reserve option as well. Herbig, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2019, but has made 38 starts over the past three seasons, while receiving grades of 71.2, 68.1, and 58.0 from PFF over those three seasons, so he’s obviously a good depth option to have. This offensive line doesn’t have a huge upside, but they should be deeper and probably better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The Steelers are hoping improved offensive line play can jumpstart the career of 2021 1st round pick running back Najee Harris, but Harris has been part of the problem as well. He’s surpassed 1000 yards rushing in each of his first two seasons in the league, but has mostly done so on volume, averaging just 3.86 yards per carry, while ranking 34th out of 50 eligible in carry success rate at 49% as a rookie in 2021 and 38th out of 42 eligible in carry success rate at 47% in his second season in the league in 2022. Meanwhile, Harris’ backup Jaylen Warren averaged 4.92 YPC on 77 carries in 2022, despite only being an undrafted rookie. Warren is still very unproven and a projection to a larger role, but he could have a larger role in year two, which could benefit Harris by keeping him fresher, after back-to-back huge workloads to start his career.

Warren also spelled Harris in some passing situations last season and had a 1.24 yards per route run average that was significantly better than Harris’ 0.77 yards per route run average. Harris has 115 catches through two seasons in the league, but that too is mostly due to volume, as he’s averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in his career, as well as just 4.73 yards per target. Warren could also cut into his passing game work more in 2023. The Steelers don’t have much depth behind Harris and Warren though and counting on a still unproven second year undrafted free agent to be the spark needed at the running back situation is not a great situation to be in, with Harris mostly disappointing through two seasons in the league. This isn’t a bad backfield, but they could remain an underwhelming rushing team.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

A lesser addition the Steelers made to this offense this off-season was veteran Allen Robinson, who comes over from the Rams on what amounts to a salary dump, with the Rams taking on 10.25 of his 15.25 million dollar guaranteed salary, in exchange for a swap of late round picks. Robinson isn’t a bad flier for the Steelers, who desperately needed another receiver to go with top holdovers George Pickens (52/801/4) and Diontae Johnson (86/882/0). 

However, there’s a reason why the Rams were so desperate to move on from Robinson, who they signed to a 3-year, 46.5 million dollar deal just last off-season. The Rams signed Robinson to that deal even though he struggled mightily in his final season in Chicago in 2021, totaling just a 38/410/1 slash line and averaging 1.13 yards per route run, and he didn’t bounce back in his lone season with the Rams, having an even worse season with a 33/339/3 slash line and a 0.93 yards per route run average. 

It wasn’t totally unreasonable for the Rams to think Robinson would bounce back though, as Robinson was under 30 and, prior to his down 2021 season, Robinson had a 1.80 yards per route run average with an average slash line of 92/1214/8 per 17 games over the first seven seasons of his career before his down 2021 season, despite routinely having below average quarterback play. Now, Robinson is coming off two straight down seasons and going into his age 30 season, so it’s likely he will continue struggling going forward, but he’s also not totally over the hill, so he could have a little bit of bounce back potential. 

Pickens and Johnson will almost definitely remain their top two wide receivers ahead of Robinson. They had similar production last season, but Pickens was much more efficient, with his yardage coming on just 84 targets, as opposed to 147 for Johnson, which was actually the 7th most in the NFL. Johnson has been an inefficient high volume target for years, with 460 targets over the past three seasons, 5th in the NFL among wide receivers over that stretch, but also with just an average 94/989/5 slash line, good for just 6.45 yards per target, very mediocre for a wide receiver, while also dropping 28 passes over that stretch. Now in his age 27 season, Johnson likely is what he is and would remain an underwhelming #1 receiver if he continued serving in that role. 

Pickens, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and has a huge upside, so he could easily take a step forward in a bigger target share in his second season in the league, which would come at the expense of Johnson, but which would also likely make this offense more efficient. Pickens might not be a #1 caliber receiver either, still only in his second season in the league, but he’s by far the more efficient of the top two options and he has the upside to be that #1 wide receiver long-term. 

Tight end Pat Freiermuth was actually their most efficient option last season, with a 1.68 yards per route run average last season, as opposed to 1.44 and 1.38 for Johnson and Pickens respectively. That led to him totaling a 63/732/2 slash line on 98 targets, after totaling a 60/497/7 slash line with 1.26 yards per route run on 79 targets as a second round rookie in 2021. Also a solid blocker, Freiermuth has received overall grades of 72.3 and 75.5 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league and, only in his age 25 season, he should remain a solid starting tight end at the very least for years to come, with the upside to take a step forward and have his best year yet in year three in 2023, especially if this offense is better as a whole than it was a year ago. 

The Steelers also used a third round pick in this year’s draft on Georgia’s Darnell Washington, but that probably says a lot more about the play of incumbent #2 tight end Zach Gentry than it does about Freiermuth, as Gentry struggled mightily with a 47.5 PFF grade overall last season, showing little as a pass catcher (0.71 yards per route run) or run blocker, while playing 577 snaps total. A 5th round pick in 2019, Gentry has been better as a blocker in the past, but he’s never been much of a receiver (0.81 yards per route run average for his career), so Washington could easily cut into his role as a rookie and could easily be an upgrade, even if he has some growing pains in year one.

In terms of wide receiver depth, the Steelers didn’t make any other additions to a thin position group this off-season, leaving 2022 4th round pick Calvin Austin as their likely top reserve, even after he missed his entire rookie season with injury. The rest of this group mostly consists of players with little experience and recent undrafted free agents, with their only other even somewhat experienced receivers being Miles Boykin (35 career catches in 4 seasons in the league) and Gunner Olszewski (14 catches in 4 seasons), who are both underwhelming options and likely are not even guaranteed to make this roster, even in a thin position group. Pickens, Freiermuth, and Johnson are not a bad top trio and this team will likely benefit from Pickens taking more targets at the expense of Johnson in Pickens’ second season in the league, but they’re not a great top trio either and depth is pretty suspect if injuries strike their top-3.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, this team’s turnaround last season coincided with the return of 2021 Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt from injury and, while their weaker schedule had more to do with their turnaround than anything, Watt’s presence was obviously a factor as well, as he finished last season with 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate on 502 snaps in 10 games, while totaling a 82.1 PFF grade, despite not being 100% for most of the season upon his return. 

As dominant as they come at his best, last year was actually a down year for Watt, who previously had grades of 91.3, 91.6, and 89.5 in the three seasons prior to last season, while totaling 52 sacks, 64 hits, and a 15.4% pressure rate in 46 games. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, with minimal injury history aside from last season (four games missed in his first five seasons in the league prior to last season), Watt should be able to bounce back to his peak form in 2023, which will obviously have a significant positive impact on this defense.

With Watt missing a lot of last season and not at 100% when he returned, fellow starting edge defender Alex Highsmith picked up some of the slack. His 14.5 sacks led the team and, while his peripheral pass rush stats were not as good, 5 hits and a 10.5% pressure rate, he still earned an overall 78.0 grade from PFF on a snap count of 941. That was a career best year for Highsmith, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2020 3rd round pick received grades of 72.0 and 67.2 respectively from PFF on snap counts of 440 and 851 respectively in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season. 

Highsmith might not be able to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023, but, at the same time, he’s also only in his age 26 season and could keep getting better. Ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, the Steelers extended Highsmith on a 4-year, 68 million dollar deal this off-season, a good deal considering it contained very limited guarantees. He probably won’t have the same sack total in 2023, even if he does play as well or better than he did in 2022, because he didn’t play as well as that sack total suggested in 2023, but he should remain an above average starting option and, with Watt likely much healthier this year, the Steelers have one of the better edge defender duos in the league. 

Depth was a concern for the Steelers at the edge defender position last season and it especially became a problem this off-season when their top reserve Malik Reed (63.8 PFF grade on 396 snaps) signed with the Dolphins, but the Steelers did a pretty good job reloading, signing veteran Markus Golden and using a 4th round pick on Wisconsin’s Nick Herbig. Herbig could struggle in a big role in year one, but he has upside, while Golden should be at least a solid rotational player. 

Golden is going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown many signs of decline yet and has finished above 60 in pass rush grade on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, with four seasons over 70 and a total of 47 sacks, 92 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate, while averaging 43.9 snaps per game in 111 games. Golden will undoubtedly have a smaller role in Pittsburgh, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he should benefit from that as he goes into his 30s. His best days are almost definitely behind him and he’s never been much of a run defender, but he could easily remain a solid situational pass rusher. With a talented starting duo and adequate depth, this is a strong position group.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Top interior defender Cameron Heyward has been one of the best players in the league at his position for years. A first round pick in 2011, Heyward was a bit of a late bloomer, only breaking out in year four in 2014 with a 75.0 PFF grade, but he has exceeded 75 on PFF in 8 straight healthy seasons since then, including 7 straight healthy seasons over 80. Also a talented run defender, Heyward has totalled 71 sacks, 91 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 135 games since his breakout 2014 season, very impressive numbers for someone who almost exclusively rushes the passer from the interior. 

Heyward is now heading into his age 34 season though, so there’s a strong chance he declines significantly in 2023. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline, with a 89.9 PFF grade (5th among interior defenders), 10.5 sacks (career high), 11 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate last season and, even if he drops off noticeably, he should remain at least an above average starter.

The Steelers will need Heyward to keep playing at a relatively high level because the rest of this position group is pretty mediocre. 

Larry Ogunjobi played 636 snaps last season and had a decent 61.7 PFF grade, but that was the 2nd best grade of his 6-year career and his best grade as a season-long starter, after three straight seasons below 60 from 2019-2021 prior to last season. Ogunjobi isn’t over the hill in his age 29 season, but he could easily regress in 2023 and go back to struggling like he did before last season. He’s not a bad pass rusher, with a career 7.4% pressure rate, but he consistently leaves something to be desired as a run defender and doesn’t rush the passer well enough to make up for it.

Chris Wormley (74.3 PFF grade on 338 snaps last season) was their top interior reserve a year ago, but he’s no longer with the team, leaving Montravius Adams (281 snaps), DeMarcus Leal (175 snaps), and Isaiah Loudermilk (116 snaps) as their top reserves, with second round rookie Keeanu Benton also being added to the mix this off-season. Benton obviously has upside, as does Leal, who was a 3rd round choice a year ago in the 2022 NFL Draft, but Benton could struggle through growing pains as a rookie, while Leal struggled even in his limited rookie year role and is no guarantee to be significantly better in year two. Both could develop into starting caliber players long-term, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will play at that level in 2023.

Loudermilk is also young, but he was only a 5th round pick in 2021 and has struggled mightily thus far in his career, with PFF grades of 42.2 and 47.5 respectively on a total of 404 snaps in two seasons in the league. It’s possible he could have some untapped potential, but he has a long way to go towards even being a capable rotational player and he’s no guarantee to take a step forward in year three. Adams is the relative veteran of the bunch, as the 2017 3rd round pick has played for four teams in six seasons in the league, but he’s never been more than a decent deep reserve, never playing more than 300 snaps in a season and finishing below 60 in half of his six seasons in the league. There are some reasons to be concerned in a position group that has questionable depth and that is led by a player in his mid 30s, but they do have some young players with upside at least.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Steelers completely overhauled their linebacking corps this off-season, with all three players who saw significant action at this position, Myles Jack (692 snaps), Devin Bush (659 snaps), and Robert Spillane (588 snaps), not being retained this off-season. In their place, the Steelers signed veterans Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts to be the starters and likely play at least close to an every down role, after being signed to contracts worth 18 million over 3 years and 7 million over 2 years respectively. 

Holcomb seems like the better of the two in that role, as the 2019 5th round pick has been in a similar role for most of his career, starting 48 of a possible 50 games, while playing 54.8 snaps per game. However, he also has finished below 60 on PFF in half of his four seasons in the league, while missing 18 games total due to injury over that stretch. He could be a solid option, but he also could struggle and/or miss significant time with injury.

Roberts, meanwhile, has never played more than 676 snaps in a season, while averaging 451 snaps per season in seven seasons in the league since going in the 6th round in 2016, and even in that relatively limited role as primarily a base package player Roberts has been underwhelming in his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, including each of the past three seasons. He is likely to continue struggling in what could be a career high in snaps for him in 2023, in a thin linebacking corps. He and Holcomb make an underwhelming starting duo.

Depth behind Holcomb and Roberts is a concern too, as the Steelers didn’t add any real depth options to this overhauled group this off-season, and they don’t have any key reserves returning. The closest thing to a key reserve from a year ago that is still on the roster is 2022 7th round pick Mark Robinson, who played just 44 snaps as a rookie and now is likely their top reserve by default, even though he is highly inexperienced and could struggle mightily if forced into significant action by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s the 3rd linebacker in an overall very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Steelers also made significant changes in the secondary this off-season. At cornerback, the Steelers’ top-4 a year ago in terms of snaps played per game were Cameron Sutton (71.6 PFF grade on 931 snaps), Levi Wallace (62.8 PFF grade on 709 snaps), Arthur Maulet (56.5 PFF grade on 481 snaps), and Akhello Witherspoon (45.4 PFF grade on 248 snaps in four games). This year, only Wallace remains, with the rest of the bunch being replaced by veterans Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan, as well as rookie Joey Porter, who they selected with the 32nd overall pick, the first pick in the second round this year and usually the last pick in the first round, making him a borderline first rounder.

Peterson figures to be the best of the bunch, but he’s going into his age 33 season, which means he could drop off significantly. In his prime, Peterson was one of the better cornerbacks in the league, exceeding 75 on PFF in five of seven seasons in his prime, from 2012-2018, and he still had a strong season in 2022, with a 77.8 PFF grade, but he also had three straight seasons below 70 from 2019-2021 and seemed to be declining, before his bounce back 2022 campaign. It’s possible he could continue playing at his 2022 level in 2023, but he also could easily regress and, even if he doesn’t regress significantly, his best days are still almost definitely behind him. 

Still, compared to their other options, Peterson seems like the best of the bunch and their de facto #1 cornerback. Porter has a lot of upside and figures to start even as a rookie, but he could easily have growing pains in year one, even if he ultimately ends up reaching his potential. Wallace has plenty of experience, with 61 starts in 67 games in five seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2018, but he also is coming off four straight seasons in the 60s on PFF, so he’s mostly been a middling starter in his career and, now in his age 28 season, he likely is what he is at this point, decent, but far from spectacular.

Peterson, Porter, and Wallace will likely be their top-3 cornerbacks, but Chandon Sullivan also has experience, with snap counts of 729, 826, and 944 over the past three seasons. The problem is he’s mostly struggled, with grades of 62.2, 55.0, and 55.8 respectively, and the Steelers would probably prefer him to be their 4th cornerback, assuming their top-3 are healthy. Sullivan will probably have to see a significant role at some point, as it’s unlikely all of the Steelers’ top-3 cornerbacks will play in all 17 games, but he is best as a depth option. The Steelers also bring back James Pierre, who played 260 snaps last season and who has been decent on 705 snaps in three seasons in the league, since going undrafted in 2020. He will likely compete with 7th round rookie Cory Trice for the final cornerback spot, in a decent, but overall unspectacular group, led by a 33-year-old who has significant potential to decline.

At safety, Terrell Edmonds wasn’t retained this off-season, after posting a 69.1 grade in 15 starts (886 snaps) a year ago. The Steelers signed veteran Keanu Neal in free agency, but he will likely be a depth option, with Damontae Kazee, who played 273 snaps in 9 games as a depth option in an injury plagued season a year ago, likely stepping into Edmonds’ starting spot. Kazee didn’t play much last season, but he had a 77.9 grade on 991 snaps in 2018, a 60.8 grade on 803 snaps in 2019, and a 60.9 grade on 900 snaps in 2021, before excelling (81.0 PFF grade) in limited action a year ago. Kazee is now heading into his age 30 season and has a pretty significant recent injury history (20 games missed in the past three seasons), but he’s been at least a capable starter whenever he’s been called on to start in his career and he’s not totally over the hill, so I wouldn’t expect a massive decline from him.

Keanu Neal, meanwhile, looked like he was on his way towards a promising career after his first couple seasons in the league, posting grades of 75.9 and 78.3 in 30 total starts, after being selected in the first round in 2016. However, he suffered back-to-back serious injuries in the next two seasons (2018 and 2019) and, not only did that limit him to just 203 snaps in 4 games in those two seasons, but it also seems to have completely derailed his once promising career. 

In his first season back from those two injuries in 2020, Neal was still decent, with a 68.2 PFF grade in 14 starts, but he couldn’t find a starting job available to him in free agency the next off-season and has spent the past two seasons mostly struggling as a reserve, with a 35.9 PFF grade on 579 snaps in 2021 and a 57.7 PFF grade on 580 snaps in 2022. Neal likely won’t start in Pittsburgh either, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he figures to play at least a situational sub package role, with the versatility to line up on the slot and at linebacker in dime packages. Neal is still only in his age 28 season and could still have some bounce back potential, but he also could continue struggling, even in a reserve role.

Fortunately, the Steelers still have Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is not only their top safety, but their top defensive back and one of the best safeties in the league. A first round pick by the Dolphins in 2018, the Steelers gave up a first round pick to acquire him after one year, which was a steep price for a player who had a middling rookie season (61.9 PFF grade on 944 snaps) and who had already used up one of the four cheap, cost controlled years on his rookie deal, but that move actually proved to be a steal, as Fitzpatrick immediately broke out with a 79.8 PFF grade in his first season in Pittsburgh. 

Fitzpatrick then followed that up with a 79.5 PFF grade in 2020 and, while he regressed to 59.8 in 2021, he bounced back in a big way in 2022, with a 82.4 PFF grade. His history is a little inconsistent, but he is one of the best safeties in the league when at his best and, still only in his age 27 season, he has a good chance to continue being at his best in 2023. He elevates a secondary that aside from him is decent, but unspectacular, after even this position group was overhauled this off-season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Steelers went 8-2 with TJ Watt on the field last season and Watt figures to be healthier in 2023, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In those 10 games with Watt, the Steelers played four games against playoff qualifiers, with two of those coming against a team with a backup quarterback, one of which turned out to be a loss. In the other two games, one was a loss to the Bengals, their other loss with Watt on the field, while the other was a win over the Bengals in a game in which the Steelers won the turnover battle by 5, which is not sustainable week-to-week, and still needed the Bengals to miss easy kicks for the game to go to overtime. The Steelers also barely had any other injuries aside from Watt, with the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2023.

Overall, the Steelers have a solid roster, but unfortunately they play in by far the tougher of the two conferences and, with many other teams looking better than them entering the season, the Steelers have a pretty narrow path to a post-season berth, which would almost definitely require several teams projected ahead of them to be ravaged by injuries and/or disappoint significant. If they played in the NFC, the Steelers would be very much in the playoff picture, but their odds are much worse in the AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 8-9, 4th in AFC North