Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 25 (+2)

Record: 1-4

The Steelers finally broke into the win column against the Jets with an “upset” win. I put upset in quotation marks because the Steelers were actually favored by a point on the road when all was said and done as both the odds makers and the sharps believed the Steelers were better than they looked before the bye and that the Jets were really inconsistent thanks to Geno Smith. Smith continued his inconsistency as the Steelers picked him off twice for their first 2 takeaways of the season and the Steelers looked better with Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller healthy and a week off to prepare and rest. If they can continue net zero turnover (-0 turnover margin) football going forward, they’ll pull some more “upsets.”

Week 6 Studs

QB Brandon Weeden

WR Antonio Brown

Week 6 Duds

RT Marcus Gilbert

LE Ziggy Hood

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Jets, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2)

The bye week might have been exactly what the Steelers needed. They sit at 0-4, but they get as healthy as they can be during the bye, with veterans resting up and guys like Heath Miller and Le’Veon Bell getting extra time to get back to full strength. I still don’t think they’ll be as this bad all season. They’re getting destroyed in the turnover battle with a -11 turnover margin that is one of the worst in the NFL. However, that type of thing tends to even out in the long run.

They won’t suddenly be good at winning the turnover battle going forward, but they won’t continue on this pace. At -11 through 4 games, they are averaging -2.8 per game, a -45 pace, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Even if they are destined to become the worst turnover margin team in NFL history (I don’t think they will be), they’ll be significantly better in this aspect going forward. They won’t continue recovering just 18.2% of fumbles that hit the ground. Meanwhile, their talented defense, which has forced 22 punts to 74 takeaways, will eventually start taking the ball away, after not doing so once in their first 4 games.

The Jets aren’t good in takeaways either, at -9 on the season, but their turnover problems are more interception than fumble based. Geno Smith has 8 interceptions on 156 attempts and I don’t think it would be ridiculous if he continues throwing a bunch of interceptions. He’s a rookie quarterback who likes to force things downfield. When it works it’s great, when it doesn’t, well, not so much.

If he were to reduce his turnover rate, it would probably be at the expense of some of the things he’s doing well, like averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. They aren’t doing well recovering fumbles either, recovering 33.3%, and their talented defense (82 first downs allowed, 34 punts forced) will force more than 3 turnovers in their next 5 games, so their turnover margin should be better going forward. However, the Steelers are the ones more underrated because of their turnover margin in this matchup.

Speaking of the Jets, they’re in a bad spot after last week’s huge win. Since 2002, teams are 46-66 ATS off of a win as double digit underdogs, including 17-27 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer points. Going off of that, home favorites are 25-51 ATS since 2002 after winning by 3 or fewer points as road dogs. After a huge upset win in dramatic fashion last week, it’s understandable that they could be flat for a 0-4 team. They could also be caught looking forward to a huge divisional matchup with the Patriots next week. I really like the Steelers’ chances of pulling the upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 New York Jets 9 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 22 (-3)

Record: 0-4

Yes, I know the Steelers have won a game and are higher rated than teams that have won games. If you want teams sorted by record, go to ESPN.com’s NFL Standings (or their NFL Power Rankings because they’re pretty much the same thing). The Steelers are not a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they are going to be a more dangerous opponent going forward than any of the teams below them on this list. Having a quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger is often a trump card.

Week 4 Studs

WR Antonio Brown

TE Heath Miller

TE David Johnson

Week 4 Duds

LT Mike Adams

MLB Vince Williams

CB Cortez Allen

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub}

Arizona Cardinals trade OT Levi Brown to the Pittsburgh Steelers

stevenlourie Cardinals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Trade for Steelers: The Steelers clearly need left tackle help. 2012 2nd round pick Mike Adams is bombing in his first chance as a full-time starter. Only Atlanta’s tackles, Sam Baker and Lamar Holmes, have graded out worse than Adams on ProFootballFocus this season. However, Brown isn’t a significant upgrade. He currently ranks just 10 spots higher than Adams, 60th out of 72, and the 2007 5th overall pick has never resembled an NFL caliber left tackle.

Before missing the entirety of the 2012 season with injury, Brown was ProFootballFocus’ 57th ranked offensive tackle (out of 76) in 2011, 78th ranked offensive tackles (out of 78) in 2010, and 72nd ranked offensive tackle (out of 77) in 2009. He’s also very overpaid, making 4.75 million this season and 6 million in an age 30 season in 2014, though I suppose the Steelers could cut him without penalty after the season. Still, the last thing the Steelers need is another overpaid veteran. Though they’re only 2 games out of the AFC North lead, at 0-4, they are in no position to be making this type of move.

Grade: C

Trade for Cardinals: I thought the Cardinals should have cut Brown before the season because he simply wasn’t worth his salary so getting anything for him is a win, even a late round pick as the Cardinals will reportedly receive. The Cardinals are technically still in it at 2-2, but I doubt they’ll miss Brown that much. Intriguing youngsters Bradley Sowell, Nate Potter, and Bobbie Massie all have more upside than him at a cheaper rate. Sowell will get the first crack at the left tackle job with Brown gone and it’s going to be hard for him to be much worse than Brown.

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings at London: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at London

Both of these teams are 0-3 and both of them deserve to be 0-3 the way they’ve played thus far, but I think one team has a better chance of turning it around going forward. Minnesota I predicted before the season started would go 5-11 and right now even that seems optimistic. Last year’s 10-6 record was largely the product of a non-human season from Adrian Peterson, a strong record in close games (5-0), and some of the best injury luck in the NFL.

Now they are 0-3. Adrian Peterson came into this week 5th in rushing with 281 yards on 69 carries, not bad at all, but not what he was doing last season. The 1499 rushing yards he’s on pace for would be the 3rd best total of his 7 year NFL career, but a good 600 yards less than he rushed for last season. 2 of their losses have come by a touchdown or less, after they went 5-0 in such games last season.

Injuries, meanwhile, have been more of a problem. Kevin Williams missed the first game of the season, while top cornerback Chris Cook is expected to miss this game. The absence of Antoine Winfield, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL last season, has also been felt as their secondary has been a major weakness. They had trouble with Brian Hoyer last week and now without Cook, they could be in a lot of trouble against Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for over 400 yards last week against a much tougher Chicago secondary in a losing effort. And, of course, Christian Ponder is out for this game with a rib problem, leaving Matt Cassel to start. He’s not a noticeable downgrade talent wise, but he has less familiarity with his teammates and the team could just mail it in at 0-3 without their starting quarterback.

The Steelers, meanwhile, I predicted to go 10-6 and make the playoffs this season. That’s one of the few things I’ve been really wrong about this season, but they won’t be this bad all season. While the Vikings seem bound for a top-5 pick, the Steelers could work their way back up closer to .500 before the season is over. They return Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller this week (Miller played last week, but in limited fashion). They will help shore up their biggest needs on a horrific offense, namely the need for a talented running back and a safety value receiver that Roethlisberger is comfortable throwing to.

The Steelers offense already looked better last week. The Steelers had 21 first downs, 2 punts, and 459 total yards to 15, 6, and 258 for the Bears, but lost by 17 because they committed 5 turnovers, 2 which went for touchdowns, without forcing a single turnover. They are now -9 in turnovers on the season, tied with the also 0-3 Giants for worst in the NFL. Fortunately, that kind of thing tends to be inconsistent in the long run. They won’t recover just 22.2% of fumbles all season. They also can still play defense and it’s only a matter of time before they start forcing takeaways (0 on the season). I also like the veteran Steelers team in London more than the younger Vikings. I expect them to avoid an 0-4 start here and start resembling the Steelers a little bit more.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 22 (-4)

The Steelers had 21 first downs, 2 punts, and 459 total yards to 15, 6, and 258 for the Bears, but lost by 17 because they committed 5 turnovers, 2 which went for touchdowns, without forcing a single turnover. They are now -9 in turnovers on the season, tied with the also 0-3 Giants for worst in the NFL. Fortunately, that kind of thing tends to be inconsistent in the long run. Also fortunately, they return Le’Veon Bell from injury this week and get safety valve Heath Miller back at full strength after he returned in limited fashion last week. That’s not going to be enough to push them from 0-3 into the playoffs, but they’re going to be overlooked going forward. They can still play defense and it’s only a matter of time before they start forcing takeaways (0 on the season).

Week 3 Studs

WR Antonio Brown

LOLB LaMarr Woodley

MLB Lawrence Timmons

SS Troy Polamalu

Week 3 Duds

LT Mike Adams

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Steelers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2)

I tweeted before Pittsburgh/Cincinnati that I could see the loser of the game still making the playoffs after starting 0-2 and I still feel Pittsburgh could sneak in, even after losing. It was a pretty competitive game either way. If David Paulson doesn’t fumble in field goal range in the 1st quarter and a tipped ball doesn’t turn into an interception in the 4th quarter, that could have been a completely different game.

The Steelers really need Le’Veon Bell to come back healthy and play well. He’s expected back this week, though probably in a limited role. Heath Miller is expected to return as well, but it’s unclear how limited he’ll be in his first game back from a torn ACL suffered last December. Right now, their offense doesn’t make any sense, as they have no running game, a deep throw quarterback, speed receivers, an overmatched offensive coordinator who loves short throws, and an offensive line that can’t block. That could be a different story this week as their health improves.

Fortunately, the defense looks like one of the better units in the NFL thanks to the return of Troy Polamalu healthy. They should remain a tough defense going forward and I find it hard to believe they’ll be the 3rd least efficient offense in the NFL (in terms of moving the chains) all season, so I haven’t completely given up on them, especially in an AFC North that looks clear as mud right now.

This week, they face an NFC North team which is a different monster, but it’s not like Chicago is that great of a team. I don’t believe that the Bears deserve to be 2.5 point favorites here in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers have been home dogs just 6 times in the Ben Roethlisberger era, going 3-1-2 ATS. I also don’t believe that the Steelers are going to start this season 0-3. At the same time, I’m not confident in them at all right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Chicago Bears 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 16

I tweeted before Pittsburgh/Cincinnati that I could see the loser of the game still making the playoffs after starting 0-2 and I still feel Pittsburgh could sneak in, even after losing. It was a pretty competitive game either way. If David Paulson doesn’t fumble in field goal range in the 1st quarter and a tipped ball doesn’t turn into an interception in the 4th quarter, that could have been a completely different game. The Steelers really need Le’Veon Bell to come back healthy and play well. He’s expected back this week. Right now, their offense doesn’t make any sense, as they have no running game, a deep throw quarterback, speed receivers, an overmatched offensive coordinator who loves short throws, and an offensive line that can’t block. Fortunately, the defense looks like one of the better units in the NFL thanks to the return of Troy Polamalu healthy.

Week 2 Studs

SS Troy Polamalu

Week 2 Duds

LT Mike Adams

MLB Lawrence Timmons

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub}

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

I feel like I say this every week, but Andy Dalton is 1-11 in his career against future playoff teams in his first two years in the league, completing 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, including two post-season losses. In his other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, going 18-4.

Last week, he lost in Chicago, a team that may or may not be a playoff team, but they’re certainly the type of team he normally loses to. Andy Dalton played better in a near win, completing 26 of 33 for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he also threw 2 back-breaking interceptions. This should continue to be something that works against the Bengals going forward. Its true Dalton has the best supporting cast of his career and one of the strongest supporting casts in the NFL, but he’s without his left tackle Andrew Whitworth right now and that’s a huge blow. He’s not expected to play this week.

It’s tough to know which category the Steelers will fall into this season, though they certainly looked like a non-playoff team in their opening game loss to the Titans by a score of 16-9. That final score doesn’t even fully illustrate how poorly they played offensively, as 2 of those points were on a safety, while their touchdown drive started with less than 4 minutes left in the game with the score pretty much out of reach.

However, they played well defensively, allowing just 16 points. I had the Steelers making the playoffs on the strength of their defense, which would be helped by the return of Troy Polamalu and, to a lesser extent, Ike Taylor from injury. They won’t make the playoffs if their offense doesn’t play better, but I don’t think it was as bad as it looked last week.

They lost starting center Maurkice Pouncey to a torn ACL early in the game. Pouncey is obviously out for the season, but at least the Steelers have a week to install a new center. It’s very tough to lose your center mid-game, especially a talented one like Pouncey, but you can survive without your center going forward, especially since the Steelers sign Fernando Velasco this week. Velasco was by far the best free agent center available, after being a final cut of the Titans, probably the most surprising final cut considering he was very solid as a starter in 2013. Credit the Steelers for picking him up. I don’t expect Ben Roethlisberger to be pressured on 40% of his drop backs again this week.

It’s also very possible that the Titans’ defense is better than we gave it credit for. They were dead last in the NFL in opponent’s scoring in 2012, but they ranked 8th in 2011 with largely the same personnel. It’s very possible they finish this season as a top-15 defense and that’s a conservative estimation. If that’s the case, the Steelers’ offensive performance doesn’t look so bad. At the same time, it’s possible that age (31) and all of his injuries have caught up to Ben Roethlisberger and/or that Roethlisberger is really being held back by Todd Haley’s system. Time will tell, but it’s definitely not time to rule out the Steelers as a playoff team.

If this line were -3, I wouldn’t take the Steelers solely off of Dalton’s past lack of success against playoff caliber opponents, but since we’re getting a full touchdown with the Steelers, I’m fairly confident that the Steelers are the right side here. Dalton is just 1-3 against the Steelers and Ravens in his career, with that one win coming by just a field goal against the Steelers last season. I think we’re seeing a field goal game either way with the Steelers playing a “don’t forget about us” game, regardless of outcome.

Cincinnati Bengals 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +7

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]