Texans

Houston Texans sign RB Andre Brown

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Texans, Uncategorized

There haven’t been any atrocious deals given out to running backs this off-season, but I have a feeling a lot of teams around the league who signed running backs this off-season are kicking themselves now that they see that the Texans got Andre Brown for the veteran’s minimum. Andre Brown has his share of issues. He’s bounced around the league and has a massive injury history so he’s played 21 games since being drafted in the 4th round in 2009 and has 246 touches going into his age 28 season. He also averaged just 3.5 yards per carry last season and has a career average of 4.1 yards per carry.

That being said, he’s strong on passing downs as both a protector and a pass catcher and he’s a bruising north-south back who always picks up some sort of yardage and who is great around the goal line. He doesn’t have much explosiveness, but he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in 2012. He doesn’t have that many more issues than running backs who signed multi-year deals worth multi-million dollars this off-season.

Donald Brown, Ben Tate, and Rashad Jennings have never been successful starting running backs. Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew have had their explosiveness sapped by injury over the past few seasons. Knowshon Moreno has the most recent productive season of the bunch, but that was largely due to the presence of the Broncos’ offensive supporting cast. Andre Brown will serve very well as a needed backup for Arian Foster, who is coming off of a major injury, and at a very reasonable rate.

Grade: A

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Houston Texans sign S Chris Clemons

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Texans, Uncategorized

The Texans are retooling the safety position this off-season, signing Kendrick Lewis, a mediocre starting/solid reserve safety, keeping Danieal Manning on a pay cut off of an injury, and now signing Chris Clemons. They also have DJ Swearinger and Shiloh Keo, who were their starters last season after Manning got hurt and Ed Reed got hurt. Those 5 are all fairly inexpensive and will all compete for the two starting jobs.

I think Chris Clemons has the best chance to be one of the starters (my guess is Swearinger, a 2013 2nd round pick, will win the other job). I have no idea why Clemons was still available on the open market this late in free agency and how the Texans were able to get him for just 2.7 million over 2 years. He was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked safety last season and 25th ranked safety in 2012 in two years as a starter in Miami, his only two years as a starter. For comparison, the Dolphins replaced him with Louis Delmas, an inferior safety, for 3.5 million over 1 year. That wasn’t that bad of a deal, but this was a steal.

Grade: A

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Houston Texans sign QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Texans, Uncategorized

After pawning Matt Schaub’s fat contract off on the Raiders and somehow getting a draft pick out of it, the Texans were left without a veteran quarterback to compete with a quarterback they presumably will draft in May’s 2014 NFL Draft. Neither Case Keenum nor TJ Yates were viable options. Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick won’t set the world on fire or anything, but he has 75 starts over the last 6 seasons combined and he’s fared reasonable well, displaying himself to at least be a top-40 quarterback and a competent spot starter in the NFL, which is something the Texans didn’t previously have.

He’s completed 1479 of 2464 (60.0%) for 16013 yards (6.50 YPA), 102 touchdowns, and 85 interceptions during that time period. Now after signing Fitzpatrick, the Texans won’t have to force a rookie quarterback into action before he’s ready, which is critical, and the price is very reasonable. Fitzpatrick’s contract is worth 7.5 million over 2 years (with just the first year’s salary of 4 million guaranteed), which looks good when compared to deals received by Josh McCown (2 years, 10 million), Matt Moore (2 years, 8 million), Matt Cassel (2 years, 10 million), Michael Vick (1 year, 5 million) and Chad Henne (2 years, 8 million) over the past 2 off-seasons. Fitzpatrick is probably in the high end of that group of quarterbacks and he’s making less yearly than all of them. This is a very solid deal.

Grade: A

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Houston Texans 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Texans, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

When the Texans went 12-4 in 2012, they did it on the strength of a 5-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, an easy schedule, and a +12 turnover margin, powered by a 64.10% fumble recovery rate, so it was predictable that the Texans would regress, even with Brian Cushing coming back from injury. That being said, I don’t think anyone saw this coming as the Texans lost their last 14 games to finish 2-14 and will have the 1st overall pick in the 2014 draft.

Fortunately for the Texans, they’re in a much better position than most teams that get the #1 pick. They were competitive in almost every game this season, up until Gary Kubiak was fired after week 14, as the Texans had a 2-9 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. That includes losses by 3 points or fewer against eventual playoff teams in Indianapolis, New England, Kansas City and an eventual 10-win Arizona team. That was in spite of a -20 turnover margin, in part because of a 44.44% fumble recovery margin.

The Texans’ defense actually played very well this season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a mere 69.40% rate, despite losing two starters (Brian Cushing and Danieal Manning) for the season fairly early in the year. The offense’s ineptitude and tendency to turn the ball over and allow defensive touchdowns made them look worse than they were. The Texans have a golden opportunity to take a franchise quarterback at the top of the draft, which will go a long way towards helping the offense, clearly their weaker side of the ball. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they followed in the footsteps of the Colts and Chiefs and became the 3rd straight team to make the playoffs the year after getting the #1 pick. The Texans are in talks as we speak to hire hot head coaching candidate Bill O’Brien.

Positional Needs

Quarterback

This one is pretty straight forward. The Texans can save 4 million in cap space (not to mention a ton of cash) by cutting Matt Schaub ahead of his 1 million dollar roster bonus in March, while Case Keenum as the look of a decent backup long-term at best. He did some nice things in his first few starts, but eventually proved why he went undrafted in the first place. TJ Yates, meanwhile, had a small cameo in mop-up duty for Schaub, completing 15 of 22 for 113 yards and 2 interceptions, and was never seen again, despite the team having nothing to lose by playing him. That doesn’t bode well for the future of one of the most unlikely men in NFL history to have won a playoff game. Teams that feel they need a quarterback picking #1 almost always take one so expect Teddy Bridgewater, or whoever is the top quarterback come draft time, to be a Texan in 2013.

Outside Linebacker

This somewhat depends on what scheme they run in 2014, but if they stick with a 3-4 they need more rush linebacker help and either way they desperately need edge rusher help. Despite having JJ Watt in front of them tying up blockers, Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus graded out dead last among eligible 3-4 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Mercilus looks like a bust of a 2012 1st round pick (though it’s too early to make that claim definitely), while Reed would probably be best in a non-rush linebacker position, either playing outside linebacker in a 4-3 or inside linebacker in a 3-4, which are both also needs. In a 4-3, Mercilus will probably still be a starter and given another chance at his natural position of 4-3 end and Watt would probably line up outside in base sets, but they’d need someone to rush the passer from the edge on passing downs, as Watt would almost definitely move inside.

Middle Linebacker

You can change this to middle linebacker/outside linebacker if the Texans go to a 4-3. Brian Cushing is their only proven non-rush linebacker and he’s suffered serious leg injuries in back-to-back seasons. Brooks Reed is another option if they bring in a strong edge rusher, but he’s unproven and might only be a two-down player as he’s kind of shaky in coverage. Daryl Sharpton and Joe Mays manned middle linebacker for the most part this season with Cushing gone and both were mediocre at best. They’re free agents anyway this off-season.

Guard

One of the positives of this season for the Texans has been the emergence of Brandon Brooks at right guard, as the 2012 3rd round pick had a very strong season. They need help at left guard though. Wade Smith is a free agent this off-season and he’s a declining player heading into his age 33 season. With Bill O’Brien likely to implement a power blocking scheme, Smith is highly unlikely to be back.

Offensive Tackle

Along with left guard, right tackle was a big problem position for the Texans. Derek Newton was one of the worst starting offensive tackles in the league, as only 5 eligible offensive tackle graded out worse than him this season on Pro Football Focus. It’s time to give up on the 2011 7th round pick as a legitimate starter. 2013 3rd round pick Brennan Williams is an option, but he missed the entirety of his rookie year with injury and has a history of leg problems dating back to his time in college. The new coaching staff will probably want their own guy there.

Defensive End

Antonio Smith has been one of the best pass rushing 5-technique defensive ends over the past 3 years under Wade Phillips, but his future is up in the air going into free agency with the Texans’ coaching staff for 2014 yet to be decided. It doesn’t help that Smith will be in his age 33 season in 2014. If Smith isn’t back with the Texans, they’ll need to replace him. 2012 4th round pick Jared Crick has been decent in limited action thus far in his career and could be an option, but I doubt they’d want him to be their only starting option going in 2014.

Tight End

Owen Daniels will be owed 4.5 million in an age 32 contract year coming off of a broken leg so he could easily be cut. The duo of Garrett Graham and rookie Ryan Griffin was fine at tight end this season, but Graham too is a free agent and the new coaching staff might want to add a tight end who is more of a power blocker than the finesse tight ends Kubiak liked.

Cornerback

Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson are fine as the starting cornerbacks, but they really need to add a better 3rd cornerback. They can’t keep trotting out Brice McCain to play half the snaps after he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ dead last ranked cornerback in 2013, despite his part-time role. He allowed opponents to have a 105.1 QB rating when throwing on him and was by far dead last in coverage grade by a cornerback.

Nose Tackle

If the Texans stick with a 3-4, they might want a more traditional nose tackle with Earl Mitchell set to hit free agency. If they move to a 4-3, defensive tackle becomes a bigger need. JJ Watt would probably play outside in base packages and move inside on passing downs so they’d need to find two new base defensive tackles. Mitchell could be one of them, if brought back, and Jared Crick could be another, but it’s still an area they could try to add more talent.

Key Free Agents

DE Antonio Smith

Antonio Smith really emerged as a great pass rushing 5-technique for the Texans under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Undersized at 6-3 277, Smith never really found a niche in the NFL before Phillips, but in the past 3 seasons he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked pass rushing 3-4 defensive end twice (2011 and 2012) and 5th ranked once (2013). He may just be a system guy though and who knows where Phillips is going to be in 2014. He’s also heading into his age 33 season. He could be back with the Texans, but that would depends heavily on what scheme they implement and wherever he signs, he’s not getting a long-term deal or a lot of money.

RB Ben Tate

Ben Tate was drafted in the 2nd round in 2010 by the Texans to be the starting running back, but broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Ben Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury.

Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.3 yards per carry on 181 carries. Tate clearly has the talent and toughness to be a lead back in the NFL, but he’s also missed 24 of 64 possible regular season games in his career thus far and is coming off of an injury plagued season. The running back position is becoming devalued because of their short career spans and injury proneness, so Tate could have a hard time finding a ton of guaranteed money on the open market on a deal that will take him into his late 20s. He’ll already be in his age 26 season in 2014.

G Wade Smith

There was a time when Wade Smith was one of the best guards in the NFL, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked guard for the 2010 season, but it’s been downhill since there, culminating in arguably the worst season of his Houston tenure in 2013, as he ranked 60th out of 81 eligible guards. Age is likely the culprit and going into his age 33 season, with Gary Kubiak and his zone blocking scheme gone, Smith is highly unlikely to be back as a starter in Houston this off-season and he may have a hard time finding starting work anywhere. He’ll likely be looking at one year deals.

DT Earl Mitchell

Undersized for the nose tackle position at 6-2 296, Mitchell, a 2010 3rd round pick, has been a favorite of Wade Phillips since he arrived as the defensive coordinator before the 2011 season. That makes sense as Phillips prefers smaller than traditional nose tackles, having success with Jay Ratliff in Dallas in his previous stop. Mitchell has been a starter ever since, playing about half the snaps, but he’s been pretty mediocre. I’d like to see him get a shot at his natural position in a 4-3 this season. He’ll probably be looking at heavy rotational work and a short-term deal worth a couple of million dollars.

FB Greg Jones

Greg Jones was one of the top fullbacks in the game in Jacksonville, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 1st ranked fullback in 2010 and 3rd ranked in 2011, but he’s not quite the same player he once was. Still, he had a solid year and was a welcome addition to Houston’s running game, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked fullback and proving to be a significant upgrade as a point of attack blocker over his predecessor James Casey. That being said, the market for soon-to-be 33 year old fullbacks is not very big so he’ll probably be looking at one year deals again this off-season.

TE Garrett Graham

Former head coach Gary Kubiak loved his tight ends and took Garrett Graham in the 4th round in 2010. Graham had to work his way up with a bunch of tight ends above him, but managed to get all the way up to the 1st string in 2013 after starter Owen Daniels went on injured reserve. He didn’t do a ton with the opportunity, catching 49 passes for 545 yards and 5 touchdowns in 14 games, including 11 starts, averaging 1.30 yards per route run, in the bottom third of the league. He’s a decent blocker even at 6-3 243 so he’ll probably be at the top of lists for teams who need #2 tight ends this off-season and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he was back in Houston.

Cap Casualty Candidates

QB Matt Schaub

Matt Schaub did his best Jake Delhomme impression this season, completing 61.2% of his passes for an average of 6.45 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, getting benched on several occasions for 2012 undrafted free agent Case Keenum. Fortunately, the Texans structured the 4-year extension they gave him at the start of the 2012 season well and can cut him this off-season, save 4 million on the cap, and have his contract completely off the books for the future. He’s as good as gone.

TE Owen Daniels

Owen Daniels was a favorite of Gary Kubiak, but Kubiak is gone now. Daniels is heading into an age 32 contract year coming off of a broken leg and the Texans can save 4.5 million in cash and off the cap by cutting him.

S Danieal Manning

Manning is in almost the exact same situation as Daniels. He’ll be in an age 32 contract year in 2014, coming off of a broken leg and the Texans can save 4.5 million in cash off the cap by cutting him. He’s been a solid starter in the past, but the Texans seem to be going into a complete rebuild so he could be gone. Shiloh Keo and DJ Swearinger are youngsters who were decent this season.

CB Brice McCain

The Texans would only save 850K in cap space by cutting McCain, but they’d save 3 million in cash over the next 2 seasons and it’s more about getting him off their roster. He was atrocious in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ lowest ranked cornerback despite a part-time role.

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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (6-9)

Firing Gary Kubiak and replacing him with Wade Phillips didn’t seem to fix anything. They’ve lost their last two games by margins of 22 and 24 points, despite losing 8 of their previous 11 games by a touchdown or less. Sure they were facing tough teams in the Colts and Broncos, but they had been within a field goal of Kansas City, Arizona, New England, and Indianapolis under Kubiak. All Phillips seems to have done is help this team get closer to the #1 pick, which I guess could have been the goal.

However, teams tend to cover the spread off of back-to-back losses by 21 points or more, going 39-21 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Giants got blown out in back-to-back weeks before last week and then they went into Detroit and won as 9 point underdogs. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. All 3 could be true for the Texans here this week.

However, I don’t know if they’ll get up for this one and be competitive, given the way they’ve been playing since Wade Phillips took over. He doesn’t seem to being doing a good job of preparing this team. I’m especially concerned about the Texans since their last two games were much more important to them than this one. After getting blown out by the Colts and Broncos, against whom they played very tough, keeping it within a field goal late, they could just mail it in against the Titans. You wouldn’t think they would because they are professionals playing for future contracts and future playing time, but it’s happened before.

We’re not really getting any significant line value with the Texans either. They are better their record. As I mentioned, they’ve had a lot of close losses and they’ve played good teams close. They move the chains at a 66.88% rate, as opposed to 69.72%, a differential of -2.84% that ranks 21st in the NFL. The Titans, meanwhile, move the chains at a 72.11% rate, as opposed to 72.03% for their opponents, a differential of 0.09% that ranks 16th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 6, instead of 7. It’s something, but it’s not significant enough line value to be confident in the Texans here, especially with the way they’ve been playing under Phillips.

If I had to take a side, I would take the Texans, as we are getting a little bit of line value with them and because of that aforementioned trend, but I can’t be confident in them at all. It’s not just because of what I mentioned earlier, but also because both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. I only pick a side confidently in a matchup like this when there’s a very clear right side. That’s not the case here at all.

Tennessee Titans 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: Houston +7

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Broncos, Texans, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12)

This is another one I’m completely split on. On one hand, the Broncos have no distractions upcoming that would distract them from be able to dominate a lesser opponent here and cover the spread. After this one, they just have to go to Oakland. Teams are 62-40 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 3 or more. They’ll actually probably be double digit road favorites in Oakland next week and teams are 77-53 ATS before being double digit road favorites since 1989. On top of that, teams are 94-66 ATS since 2010 as double digit favorites before being double digit favorites.

On the other hand, Houston is in a good spot on a long losing streak. It might sound counterintuitive, but teams are 53-31 ATS since 1989 as underdogs on a losing streak of 8 or more. It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed on a long losing streak like that, as long as they are underdogs. The Texans possibly being embarrassed and overlooked is pretty self-explanatory and they are also undervalued as no one wants to bet on a team on a long losing streak, so the odds makers can boost the spread on them.

We are getting line value this week with the Texans. The Broncos are obviously a very good team. They have the NFL’s best offense, moving the chains at an absurd 81.20% rate, easily the best in the NFL, but their defense is vulnerable, as they allow opponents to chains the chains at an above average 72.86% rate. That differential of 8.34% is still 2nd in the NFL, but the Texans are actually better than their record, coming in 19th. The Texans’ offense has been horrible, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, but their defense is above average, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.27% rate, a differential of -1.70%. That suggests this line should actually be around 7, instead of 10.5.

The Texans are 2-12 because they’ve been killed by a -6 differential in return touchdowns and a -14 turnover differential, two things that tend to be inconsistent, and because they are 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have just four losses by more than a touchdown all season, including just one at home, which is very relevant because this line is at 10.5. They don’t get blown out often. Likewise, the Broncos have just one road victory by double digits, as well as they’ve played this season.

The Texans showed up big-time at home for the Patriots a few weeks ago, almost winning in a 3 point loss. They could do that this week as well, especially now that they have a real quarterback in Matt Schaub back under center, with Case Keenum hurt. Keenum was doing some nice things for the Texans when he first took over as a starter, but eventually opposing defenses were able to expose why he went undrafted. He bottomed out last week, completing 18 of 34 for 169 yards and 2 interceptions in a 25-3 loss to Indianapolis, one of those 4 losses by more than a touchdown on the season.

Schaub isn’t great or anything and he’s not what he used to be, but he’s still a starting caliber quarterback. I don’t think his season numbers (62.4% completion, 6.64 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions) are indicative of the type of quarterback he is, considering they’re so far off of his career numbers. He probably knows he won’t be back in Houston next year, so he’ll take these two games as an opportunity to display himself to quarterback needy teams that could pursue him as a starter in free agency this off-season. He’ll be plenty motivated. At the end of the day, I’m taking Houston and fading the public as long as this line is 10.5, but there’s enough stuff in Denver’s favor where I’m not confident at all. In fact, if this line was 10, I might take Denver. That’s how close it is.

Denver Broncos 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Houston +10.5

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-11) at Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

The Texans fired Head Coach Gary Kubiak last week. They probably won’t give any effort this week right? That seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Colts as 6 point favorites here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as the odds makers always win in the long run, especially when the public is wrong. I don’t think the Texans firing Kubiak last week will really negatively affect them this week. If anything, it might help them as 6 of the last 8 teams to fire their head coach covered the following week. That’s a small sample size, but definitely seems to disprove the notion that teams who fire their Head Coach show no effort the following week. These are still professional football players and they are now playing to impress a new coaching staff and possibly a new team.

The Texans have shown they’ll get up for important games, almost knocking off both the Patriots and these Colts in recent weeks. The Colts are also in freefall, with a -59 point differential in their last 6 games since the bye. For comparison’s sake, the “lowly” Texans have a point differential of just -28 over their past 6 games since the bye. The Colts are not as good as their record, while the Texans are not as bad as their record.

The Colts got off to a great start to their season, with wins over Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver, but have been terrible of late, as I alluded to in the last paragraph. A lot of people are blaming this on the absence of Reggie Wayne and that has something to do with it, but he’s just one wide receiver. It’s hard to blame everything, including the defense’s ineptitude, on his absence. More likely, the Colts are just regressing back to their 2012 ways, after a fluky strong start to this season.

Last season, they needed 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished 7-9 or worse to win 11 games, thanks to terrible defense and offensive line play. I think they’re probably still better this season than last season, but they’re still not as good as their current 8-5 record would suggest. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, have one win by more than 8 points (over Jacksonville), have a negative point differential, and rank 17th in DVOA, including 19th in weighted DVOA.

The Texans, meanwhile, are 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less and haven’t lost by more than a touchdown since week 6. The Texans might not win this game, but they could keep it close once again with a Colts team that has almost exclusively won their games by a small margin this season. That’s relevant to a game with a 6 point line. The Texans have also been killed by a -6 differential in return touchdowns and a -14 turnover differential, two things that tend to be inconsistent.

In terms of purely rate of moving the chains, the Texans rank 18th, moving them at a 68.59% rate, as opposed to 69.59% for their opponents. The Colts, meanwhile, actually rank 19th, moving them at a 72.36% rate, as opposed to 73.54% for their opponents. I don’t think the Texans are a better team than the Colts and you can’t blindly follow that statistic, but it’s worth noting and it makes sense considering both of these teams’ tendencies to play close games and be on opposite sides of them. Finally, the Texans are in a good spot as underdogs on an 8+ game losing streak. Teams are 53-30 ATS in that spot since 1989 as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed on a long losing streak like that, as long as they are underdogs.

There three reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on the Texans. One, the Texans have the Broncos up next. I have a strong feeling the Texans will bring their “A game” this week for their divisional rival, but they could be distracted with Denver coming to town next week. Teams are 35-66 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012, which the Texans almost definitely will be next week. They might not be focused enough to keep this one close.

Two, Andrew Luck is 9-0 ATS off of a loss in his career, which is something to take notice of. However, he has only once been favored by more than 3.5 points in that scenario, a 7 point win against an eventual 2-14 Chiefs team last year as 6.5 point favorites on the road. The third and final reason is just the uncertainty surrounding the Texans after losing Gary Kubiak last week. They might be able to bring their “A game,” in spite of that, but there are no guarantees. The Texans definitely seem like the right side, but I can’t be terribly confident.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Houston Texans 20

Pick against spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)

The Texans are 2-10, a game behind the Jaguars, and lost to the Texans at home two weeks ago. Why do they deserve to be favored here on the road by 3.5 points? Well, it’s because the Texans aren’t as bad as their record, while the Jaguars aren’t as good and just because one team beats another team, doesn’t mean they’d necessary win more than 50 times out of 100.

The Jaguars have 3 wins, but all 3 of them were by a touchdown or less against bad teams and they probably would not have beaten any of the 3 teams more than 50 times out of a 100, given how they played in the rest of their games. Their nine losses have all come by double digits. They’re still, by far, dead last in the NFL in point differential, DVOA, and rate of moving the chains. The Texans, meanwhile, have just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

However, the Texans could have completely quit on the season. They aren’t used to losing like this and they hadn’t been showing a lot of effort over the past month, up until last week’s near home win against the Patriots, which was essentially their Super Bowl. Now that they’re done with that game, they might just completely mail it in. Teams usually struggle as road favorites off of a home loss as underdogs, going 38-51 ATS since 1989 in that spot.

The Texans might actually benefit from mailing it in, given that they are currently in the driver’s seat for the first pick. The Jaguars used to be in the driver’s seat for the first pick, but they didn’t seem to care about that, winning 3 of their last 4. However, there’s no reason to trust they’ll definitely put any effort into this one.  That’s the issue. This is a completely meaningless game that teams could actually benefit from losing. I’m not putting anything on that. You’d have to be a degenerate gambler to put any money on this game. Gun to my head, I’ll fade the public (slight lean on Houston) and hope for a field goal game, but I have no confidence.

Houston Texans 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

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Last week: 28 (-2)

Record: 2-9

The Texans somehow dropped back-to-back home games to the Raiders and Jaguars, but I’d still argue they are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. However, it would be beneficial for them to lose out and get the #1 pick. They have a lot of talent around the quarterback position. If they could get someone like Teddy Bridgewater, they’d be back in the hunt very quickly. They’re in a much better position than any team with 2 or 3 wins, save for maybe Atlanta and that’s a maybe.

Week 12 Studs

LT Duane Brown

RG Brandon Brooks

C Chris Myers

ROLB Whitney Mercilus

SS DJ Swearinger

Week 12 Duds

MLB Joe Mays

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New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Patriots, Texans, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (8-3) at Houston Texans (2-9)

The Raiders beat the Texans by 5 in Houston. The Jaguars beat the Texans by 7 in Houston. Surely the Patriots can beat them by 9 or more in Houston right? Well, that seems to be what the public is thinking as almost all of the action is on New England, but, as is often the case, it’s not that simple. There’s a reason why the odds makers always win in the long run.

I compare this game to last week’s Atlanta/New Orleans game, in which the Falcons kept it within 4 as 9 point home underdogs to the Saints, with all of the public action going on New Orleans because, “how could they not cover right?” Atlanta, like Houston, was a once proud team that had seemed to have quit on the season, not being used to that kind of losing and, as a result, they had lost 4 straight by a combined 74 coming in. However, they were able to get up for one last shot at upsetting a huge rival and played pretty well. I think Houston could do the same thing. This could easily be their Super Bowl, much like New Orleans was Atlanta’s Super Bowl last week. Don’t think the Texans have forgotten how the Patriots derailed their season last year.

The Texans are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They’ve only had 3 losses by more than a touchdown so I wouldn’t be so sure the Patriots come in and roll them over, especially since the Patriots have just 3 wins by a touchdown or more and have yet to cover a line bigger than a touchdown this season. Also, teams are 6-18 ATS as 7.5+ point road favorites over the past 3 seasons. It’s very hard to cover this type of spread.

Football Outsiders, for some reason, doesn’t think the Texans are better than their record, as they come in at 30th in terms of DVOA, but I disagree with that. They are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential that is 15th in the NFL. I don’t think they are the 15th best team in the NFL, but I think they’re better than 30th. They’re still solid in both trenches and we’re definitely getting some line value with them.

They’re also in a very good spot here. Teams who are non-divisional home underdogs are 40-11 ATS before being divisional road favorites, which they will be in Jacksonville next week. Teams in that dynamic tend to be completely focused and I think the Texans will be here. Also, teams are 99-56 ATS as underdogs off of 7+ straight losses. The public tends to want to stay away from teams on a long losing streak, and understandably so. That gives us value with the team on the long losing streak. The Patriots, meanwhile, could come out a little bit flat after last week’s huge win. I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think and I’m pretty confident in Houston +9.

New England Patriots 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against spread: Houston +9

Confidence: High

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