Texans

Houston Texans: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 14 (+2)

Record: 2-4

Do Texans fans still think TJ Yates is better than Matt Schaub? I never argued Matt Schaub was great or anything, but the switch to TJ Yates was obviously not going to provide an upgrade and he proved that as he completed 12 of 17 for 98 yards and 2 interceptions (including a pick six) in relief of an injured Matt Schaub against the Rams. Also, and I need to preface this by saying that this is not the majority of Texans fans, but the Texans fans who cheered when Schaub got hurt and Yates came in were not only incorrect, but deplorable. I really don’t think the Texans are going to be in position to get a real upgrade over Schaub any time soon unless they completely tank this season. Texans fans should just learn to accept him and his flaws. He’s going through a rough patch right now, but I don’t think this is indicative of the type of quarterback he is.

Week 6 Studs

WR Andre Johnson

RG Brandon Brooks

C Chris Myers

Week 6 Duds

QB TJ Yates

LG Wade Smith

MLB Brian Cushing

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St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Rams, Texans, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (2-3) at Houston Texans (2-3)

It’s weird to be saying this because I held that the Texans were overrated coming into the season, but I actually think the Texans are underrated right now. They’ve faced a very tough schedule thus far, playing Baltimore, Tennessee, San Diego, and San Francisco, and Seattle. San Diego is probably the worst of the bunch and even they’re decent. They’ve also been killed off of returns. The Texans are -46 in points differential right now, but they are -28 in points off of returns as they’ve allowed 4 defensive touchdowns.

That won’t continue. Even if the Texans continue to turn the ball over at a rate of 2.2 per game, they are unlikely to allow 36% of them to be returned for a touchdown. And they might not even continue to turn the ball over at this rate. They are unlikely to continue recovering just 30.0% of fumbles that hit the ground and Matt Schaub, while he’s definitely having a down year, probably won’t continue throwing an interception at a rate nearly double his career rate. For his career, he throws an interception on 2.6% of attempts. This season, he’s at 4.2%, partly because of their tough schedule. Their -8 turnover margin is one of the worst in the NFL and a big part of the reason they’ve struggled. The Texans are actually moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a 5% differential that is 6th best in the NFL, despite their tough schedule.

This is a perfect chance for them to get back on track here, with the Rams coming to town. The Rams have already failed to cover similar lines against similar caliber opponents, in Atlanta and Dallas. They beat the Cardinals at home by 3 week 1, but they then trailed Atlanta 21-0 early before injuries and garbage time, they lost 31-7 to the Cowboys, and they lost 35-11 to the 49ers.

They beat Jacksonville by 14 last week, but that’s not even that impressive. They barely even covered the spread, beating the 12 point spread by 2, their first cover of the season. The Texans also haven’t covered this season, but that’s because I think they’ve been overrated. That’s no longer the case. I like their chances of re-establishing themselves here and blowing out the Rams. I wish the line was -7 or lower, but I still think the Texans should be the right side.

Houston Texans 24 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Houston -8

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 15 (+1)

Record: 2-3

Texans fans calling for Matt Schaub’s job are ridiculous. Who are you legitimately going to get, either this year or next year, that’s better than them? The same thing can be said about Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, and Tony Romo. Joe Flacco and Eli Manning would be in the same boat if they didn’t randomly have an uncharacteristically great stretch of football in the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Rivers, Cutler, Romo, and Schaub could all do the same.

Week 5 Studs

LT Duane Brown

LE JJ Watt

Week 5 Duds

QB Matt Schaub

RT Derek Newton

DT Earl Mitchell

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Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

The Texans aren’t as bad as they’ve looked in the past two weeks. They led a very good Seattle team 20-6 at home before failing to close it out (so much for their 7-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less meaning they “know how to win”) and against Baltimore, they were pretty even in first downs, yards, and punts. Baltimore just won by 21 because of two return touchdowns. However, they weren’t nearly as good as they looked coming into the last 2 weeks. They’ve now been outscored by 13 points over their last 17 games. This is the definition of a pedestrian team.

The 49ers, meanwhile, started out slow, but that was probably a fluke. There is no shame in getting blown out in Seattle and the Indianapolis game could have easily been a fluke. They looked as good as I knew they were against the Rams and they should continue playing that well going forward. Things will only get better as they are expected to get Patrick Willis back from injury this week. They certainly have the talent to blow out Houston here.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 15

Record: 2-2

The Texans aren’t as bad as they’ve looked in the past two weeks. They led a very good Seattle team 20-6 at home before failing to close it out (so much for their 7-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less meaning they “know how to win”) and against Baltimore, they were pretty even in first downs, yards, and punts. Baltimore just won by 21 because of two return touchdowns. However, they weren’t nearly as good as they looked coming into the last 2 weeks. They’ve now been outscored by 13 points over their last 17 games. This is the definition of a pedestrian team. That being said, any talk of replacing Schaub is ridiculous. Who are you realistically going to get for 2014 that’s better than him? I could see them using a day 2 pick on a quarterback to groom behind him however, as he goes into his age 33 season in 2014 and owed 29 million from 2015-2016.

Week 5 Studs

LG Wade Smith

LE JJ Watt

MLB Brian Cushing

ROLB Whitney Mercilus

Week 5 Duds

RT Derek Newton

RG Brandon Brooks

TE Garrett Graham

DT Earl Mitchell

MLB Daryl Sharpton

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Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Seahawks, Texans, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Houston Texans (2-1)

The Seahawks are a significantly better team at home than on the road and have been for years. Since 2007, they are 34-18 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.1 points per games and going 36-15 ATS. Meanwhile, on the road, they are 16-37, getting outscored by an average of 6.4 points per game and going 21-31 ATS. However, the Seahawks are 7-6 ATS as road favorites in that time frame. They’re also are playing so well right now that I’m not picking against them as mere field goal favorites in Houston.

They started last season poorly on the road, losing in St. Louis, Arizona, Miami, and Detroit. However, they’ve won 11 of their last 13 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 209 of 318 (65.7%) for 2888 yards (9.1 YPA), 25 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 17.5 points per game over last 13 games overall, including 8.2 points per game on the road. They are 4-2 on the road over that stretch, including 5-1 ATS. They’re playing too well right now to bet against them unless the lines start to skyrocket. If anything, they’re underrated right now.

The Texans, meanwhile, are still pretty overrated. This is simply not the same team they were last season when they started out so well. The Texans could easily be 0-3 right now, needing comebacks to beat both the Chargers and Titans, two supposedly inferior opponents. They haven’t really played that well dating back to last season. Over their last 16 games (including playoffs), a full season’s worth, they are 10-6, but also -10 in point differential. I’m not confident in the Seahawks because of how they started last season on the road, but they should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Houston Texans 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 15 (-3)

The Texans could easily be 0-3 right now, needing comebacks to beat both the Chargers and Titans, two supposedly inferior opponents. They haven’t really played that well dating back to last season. Over their last 16 games (including playoffs), a full season’s worth, they are 10-6, but also -10 in point differential. I still think they’ll win the AFC North, but only by default and if the Colts can keep up what they did this week, they’ll probably win the division easily. Tennessee, as they showed in their near win week 2 in Houston, will be competitive as well.

Week 3 Studs

C Chris Myers

LE JJ Watt

Week 3 Duds

LT Ryan Harris

RT Derek Newton

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 13

The Texans pulled another win out of their ass, winning in overtime at home for Tennessee. They are now 7-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less since the start of last season. That’s not going to be unsustainable and it’s concerning that 3 of those wins in 2012 came against teams with poor records and the 2 wins this year came against teams that were supposed to have poor records. They could have a lot of trouble with contending caliber teams. I don’t understand how they’re favored in Baltimore this week.

Week 2 Studs

WR DeAndre Hopkins

LT Duane Brown

C Chris Myers

LE JJ Watt

Week 2 Duds

LG Wade Smith

LOLB Brooks Reed

MLB Joe Mays

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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Ravens, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

The Ravens have been one of the premier home teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, going 24-3 at home since 2010. As a result, they’ve only been underdogs at home a grand total of twice in that time frame, losing once at home to Peyton Manning and the Broncos last season and then winning once at home as dogs last year against the Giants, after they had previously lost 3 straight. Given that, I don’t think the Texans deserve to be favored in Baltimore.

The Texans have not played well thus far this year, barely beating both Tennessee and San Diego. They won 12 games last year, but were not nearly as good as that would have suggested. Their Pythagorean Expectation was that of a 10 win team as they went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They also faced a very easy schedule, recovered an unsustainable high percentage of fumbles that hit the ground, and played their worst football down the stretch, which might have carried over somewhat into this season. They finished last year 11th in overall DVOA and 19th in weighted DVOA, which puts a higher weight on their later games.

That’s not the type of team that deserves to be favored in Baltimore, especially since left tackle Duane Brown, one of the best in the NFL, probably won’t play. Ray Rice, meanwhile, won’t suit up for the Ravens, but it’s much easier to replace him with talented backup Bernard Pierce than to replace one of the game’s premier blindside protectors with Derek Newton.

The trends also favor the Ravens. They are home dogs here before being road favorites next week in Buffalo. Teams are 55-34 ATS since 2002 in that situation. Meanwhile, the Texans are road favorites before being home dogs next week when Seattle comes to town. Teams are 37-62 ATS in that situation since 1989 as long as the game is non-divisional.

Put it all together and you get that teams are 6-2 ATS since 1989 as home dogs before being road favorites when their opponent will next be home dogs. I know it’s a very small sample size, but I think the fact that this is only the 9th time this situation has happened in 24 years is telling. The Ravens will be completely focused on this game, while the Texans could be caught looking forward to what they might see as a Super Bowl preview against Seattle next week. There’s a very good chance that Baltimore takes advantage and wins at home. They’re a great home team and Houston is a comparable, but not superior opponent.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Houston Texans 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Baltimore +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0)

Usually there are not a lot of changes in my Power Rankings from pre-week 1 to pre-week 2. I don’t like changing projections based on one week. The biggest move, by far, this week were the Tennessee Titans. In 2011, the Titans were 8th in the NFL in opponent’s scoring. In 2012, they were 32nd and I couldn’t exactly figure out why. They were one of the true wild cards of this season for me for that reason. I projected them closer to 2012 than 2011 defensively, but they certainly looked closer to 2011 than 2012 in Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to one late touchdown all game.

If they can continue that, they’re going to be tough this season and they certainly have the talent to. They have a deep defensive line led by Jurrell Casey and Derrick Morgan, who had great seasons last year. The former was phenomenal against Pittburgh and could be even better this year, in just his 3rd year in the league. Jason McCourty is a talented cornerback, while guys like Alterraun Verner, Akeem Ayers, Bernard Pollard, and Zach Brown are capable starters. The only hole in their back 7 is middle linebacker and possibly Michael Griffin’s spot at safety, depending on whether or not he can bounce back from the worst season of his career. So far, so good for him. The offense will hold them back and I don’t believe in Jake Locker, but they have a strong offensive line, a talented running back, and they can win games like they did last week if the defense continues this level of play.

Given that, I think this line is way too high at 9.5. Besides, the Texans have had a lot of trouble blowing out inferior opponents recently. Last week’s near loss to the Chargers stands out, but last season, they also had close calls with the NY Jets, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Detroit, with 3 of 4 being touchdown games and the Buffalo game being a lot closer than the final score. Because of their 5-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, their weak schedule, and their improbable 64.3% fumble recovery rate, the Texans actually finished last season as DVOA’s 11th ranked team, 19th in weighted DVOA (weighs later games more heavily).

This is also a good spot for the Titans as they have nothing on the horizon to distract them. Houston won this division last year and is one of the most important games on their schedule, while next week’s game against San Diego looks relatively meaningless. This is opposed to Houston, who has to go to Baltimore next week. Since 2002, divisional underdogs of 7+ are 43-23 ATS before being non-divisional favorites. That just sums up the schedule related dynamic the Titans are in this week and it’s a good sign. I like the Titans’ chances to at least keep this one close.

Houston Texans 17 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee +9.5

Confidence: High

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