Titans

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

The Vikings caught a tough break when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a brutal knee injury in practice with less than 2 weeks before the first game of the season. Bridgewater dislocated his knee, tore his ACL, suffered additional ligament damage, and is out for at least the season. It must be especially frustrating for the Vikings because they’ve improved dramatically in each of the past 2 seasons, going from 5-10-1 in 2013 to a 11-5 NFC North title season in 2015, and appeared right on the cusp this season. Bridgewater is not the only reason for their improvement, but he’s been a big part of it in his 2 years in the league, since going in the first round in 2014.

Not trusting 36-year-old career journeyman backup Shaun Hill to replace Bridgewater, the Vikings made a desperation move and traded a 2017 first round pick to the Eagles for Sam Bradford, a veteran quarterback who the Eagles will replace with rookie Carson Wentz, the #2 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Built to win now, I understand why the Vikings made the move. Bradford’s skill set is comparable to Bridgewater, but it’s going to be tough for him to take over as Minnesota’s starting quarterback, after spending all off-season as the starter in Philadelphia. In fact, he won’t even start in this game, leaving Hill at quarterback for at least week 1. Hill didn’t play well in his last significant action in 2014 (63.3% completion, 7.24 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) and now is two years older and going into his age 36 season, so he’s a major liability.

The good news for the Vikings is they’re a team built to play great defense and run the ball. Even last year, with a healthy Bridgewater, they only passed 454 times, fewest in the NFL. The bad news is they have major issues in the receiving corps and the offensive line has major issues in pass protection. Their passing game will have trouble doing anything if needed with Hill under center. Given that, I don’t understand why they are favored here on the road by an entire field goal against an underrated Tennessee team.

The Titans only won 3 games last year, but 5 of their losses came when quarterback Marcus Mariota was hurt and 4 of their other 8 losses when Mariota was healthy came by less than a touchdown. They added a lot through the draft, after trading down from #1 overall, and also made some underrated off-season acquisitions. Their offensive line and running game look much improved, while their defense is much deeper and could be much improved if the likes of Brian Orakpo, Jason McCourty, and Perrish Cox can all be healthier this season. I like their chances of at least getting a push, given that 1 out of every 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

Tennessee Titans 19 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Titans have been the worst team in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, in terms of record, going just 5-27 in 2014 and 2015 combined. However, things are definitely looking up for them and they could become a factor in the playoff race once again this season. They won just 3 games last season, but 6 of their losses came by a touchdown or less and 4 of them came by a field goal or less, so they were coming close. They finished 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, which isn’t great, but it’s a little bit better than their record suggests.

Because of their record, they ended up with the #1 overall pick in the draft and were able to get a king’s ransom for it when the Rams decided they needed to have quarterback Jared Goff. Along with the #1 pick, they sent a 4th and 6th rounder to Los Angeles and got picks 15, 43, 45, and 76, along with a 1st and 3rd rounder in 2017. That will allow them to add a lot of young, cheap talent through the draft in 2016 and 2017. This comes after getting the #2 overall pick in 2015 and adding quarterback Marcus Mariota out of Oregon.

Mariota was promising as a rookie, despite the team’s record. Not only could the Titans have won a couple more games had a few plays gone the other way, they also could have won a couple more games had Mariota stayed healthy, as he missed essentially 5 games with injury. In those 5 games, they moved the chains at a mere 58.09% rate (losing all 5), as opposed to 72.78% in their other 11 games, actually above average. Mariota faced an easier slate of games than his backup, but still completed 62.2% of his passes for an average of 7.62 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 252 yards and 2 additional touchdowns on 34 carries (7.41 YPC). He could easily be better in his 2nd year in the league and, if he can stay healthy, the Titans could have a pretty solid offense in 2016.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Obviously, it greatly increases Mariota’s chances of staying healthy if the Titans don’t lead the NFL in sacks allowed again, as they did in 2015, when they allowed 54. Some of that was the fault of the quarterbacks holding the ball too long, but the Titans also had major issues in pass protection. The Titans addressed the offensive line in the first round, moving back up to the 8th overall pick (sending the 16th pick, a 3rd round pick, and a 2017 2nd round pick to Cleveland to do so) and taking Michigan State offensive tackle Jack Conklin, who will be immediately plugged in at right tackle.

Even though the Titans allowed a lot of sacks as a whole, they didn’t actually get bad play at left tackle, where 2014 1st round pick Taylor Lewan flourished in his 2nd year in the league. After flashing in 6 starts as a rookie, Lewan started in all 15 games he played in 2015 and finished 12th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 3rd year in the league in 2016, Lewan’s best football could still be yet to come. He and Conklin are a pair of recent first round picks with very bright futures.

Along with right tackle, center and left guard were positions of weakness upfront for the Titans in 2015. The Titans addressed the center position in free agency by signing ex-Texans center Ben Jones. Jones has graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons he’s been in the league, since going in the 4th round in 2012, but is coming off of a career best 2015 season in which he finished 18th at his position. He also has the versatility to play guard, as he made his first 27 career starts at guard, before kicking inside to center in 2015. A collegiate center at the University of Georgia, the Titans plan to keep him there. He’s a capable starter and a noticeable upgrade.

The Titans did not add any left guards in free agency this off-season though, nor did they draft one until the 6th round, when they took Arkansas’s Sebastian Tretola. The Titans’ depth at the guard position got worse when veteran Byron Bell suffered a season ending ankle injury after the draft. Bell has never been a good offensive lineman, but he was capable last season at both right tackle and left guard. He likely would have been the favorite at left guard had he been healthy, so it was a little bit more than a minor loss. In his absence, 2nd year player Quinton Spain will start. Spain started the final 6 games of last season, but that doesn’t mean much, as he was merely the last option on a rotating door of mediocrity. The 2015 undrafted free agent didn’t show much on 383 snaps last season. Despite being a late round pick, Tretola could push him for snaps down the stretch.

Rounding out the offensive line is right guard Chance Warmack, the 10th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Warmack hasn’t lived up to his potential yet, finishing a career high 40th among guards on Pro Football Focus in 2015. He could be better in 2016, still only going into his age 25 season and possessing plenty of upside, but he’s been underwhelming throughout his career thus far. He’s part of an offensive line that’s still very much a work in progress, but they’re young and improving. They also added two new starters this off-season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Titans also added at the running back position this off-season, much needed after last season. At first glance, they weren’t bad on the ground last season, averaging 4.00 yards per carry, 17th in the NFL, but much of that was because of quarterback Marcus Mariota, who averaged 7.41 yards per carry. Outside of him, the Titans averaged just 3.66 yards per carry and  that’s despite the fact that passing down back Dexter McCluster averaged 4.49 yards per carry. If you exclude McCluster, who is no longer even with the team, they averaged just 3.50 yards per carry.

Early down types like Antonio Andrews, David Cobb, and Bishop Sankey averaged 3.64, 2.81, and 4.11 yards per carry respectively on 143, 52, and 47 carries respectively, meaning they really needed to add better runners this off-season. The Titans attempted to do so by trading for veteran running back DeMarco Murray and using a 2nd round pick on Alabama running back Derrick Henry. Murray led the league in rushing in 2014, but that was largely because of the Cowboys’ dominant offensive line and his high usage. He finished 5th among running backs in 2014, which is still good, but he fell to 67th out of 69 eligible in 2015 in his first and only year in Philadelphia, after signing a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season.

While many expected a drop off for Murray, just how much he dropped off is shocking. Even though 2014 was easily the best season of his career, he wasn’t bad in the 3 years prior to 2014, after going in the 3rd round in 2011. From 2011-2013, he rushed for 2681 yards and 15 touchdowns on 542 carries (4.95 YPC) and added 114 catches for another 784 yards and 1 touchdown through the air. He’s unlikely to be that good this season because he doesn’t have Dallas’ offensive line blocking for him anymore, but he’s an obvious bounce back candidate in his new home in Tennessee.

Credit the Eagles for getting anything for him and not having to pay him 7 million guaranteed in 2016, but also credit the Titans for getting him for next to nothing and convincing him to sign a much discounted deal that will only pay him 25.5 million over the next 4 years, rather than 32.9 million, as he was originally scheduled to make (the remaining 7.4 million can be earned back through incentives). The upside for Murray is he’ll be guaranteed 12 million over the next 2 seasons, so it’s an increase in guaranteed money for him.

Even after adding Murray, the Titans still used a 2nd round pick on Derrick Henry, as I mentioned before, a luxury they could afford after trading away the #1 pick for a king’s ransom. Considering how bad Murray looked last season and the fact that he’s missed 12 games in 5 years in the league with injury, it’s not a bad idea to have an insurance policy like Henry. How much work Henry sees will be dependant on how Murray runs the ball this season and whether or not he’s healthy, but those two should split the early down work. If Murray struggles, it’s definitely not out of the question that Henry surpasses him as the lead back by season’s end. It’s a much improved group of backs.

Grade: B-

Wide Receiver

The Titans also added at wide receiver this off-season, signing ex-Dolphin Rishard Matthews to a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal. Matthews, a 7th round pick in 2012, made just 6 career starts in his first 3 years in the league, but won the starting job in 2015 with the Dolphins, ahead of higher profile players like Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Greg Jennings. Matthews started all 11 games he played in 2015 (he missed the final 5 games of the season with broken ribs) and caught 43 passes for 662 yards and 4 touchdowns. That extrapolates to 63 catches for 962 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games, on a Miami offense that was otherwise pretty bad. As a result, he finished 35th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. He’s still a one year wonder, but the Titans didn’t pay him much, so he has a real chance to be a value signing. He’s the only Titan wide receiver who is locked into a role and could lead the position in targets.

Kendall Wright has plenty of starting experience, making 37 starts in 55 career games in 4 years in the league, since going in the first round in 2012, but he’s not locked into a starting job. Wright seemingly had a breakout year in his 2nd year in the league in 2013, catching 94 passes for 1079 yards and 2 touchdowns and finishing 18th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but he’s caught just 93 passes for 1123 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2 seasons since. He’s graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league, with the exception coming in 2013. He also missed 6 games with injury last season. If he can stay healthy, he has some bounce back potential, but that’s far from a guarantee. He’s likely guaranteed to at least be the slot receiver, but he has a shot to keep a starting job.

Second year player Dorial Green-Beckham looked like a starter going into the off-season, after flashing on 580 snaps as a rookie, but struggled this off-season, which got him benched and ultimately shipped to the Eagles for a reserve offensive lineman, a very strange move from Tennessee’s perspective. Tajae Sharpe, who had a strong off-season, is expected to be one of the Titans’ top-3 wide receivers with Green-Beckham gone, playing outside opposite Matthews in 3-wide receiver sets. Despite looking good thus far, he’s a mere 5th round rookie, so it’s hard to have high expectations for him.

Tight end Delanie Walker was easily the Titans’ best pass catcher in 2015, catching 94 passes (most among tight ends) for 1088 yards (3rd most among tight ends) and 6 touchdowns. It helped that he received 10 more targets than any other tight end in the league, something that’s unlikely to continue with improved wide receivers around him in 2016, but the all-around talented 6-2 248 pound tight end finished 2nd among tight ends overall on Pro Football Focus in 2015, after coming in 7th in 2014.

He’s been a late bloomer for the Titans, after spending most of his career as a #2 tight end in San Francisco. The past 2 seasons are the first two seasons in his career in which he’s graded out above average as a pass catcher since 2008, when he played just 143 snaps. He’s caught 157 passes for 1978 yards and 10 touchdowns over that two year span. He’ll see fewer targets and his age is becoming a concern going into his age 32 season, but with Mariota healthy, he could post solid numbers again on an offense that’s overall looking up. He should also get more red zone opportunities. Veteran #2 tight end Anthony Fasano remains as the #2 tight end. He’s a solid blocker, but little else, as he heads into his age 32 season. Fortunately, he won’t have to see a ton of action. Like the rest of this offense, the Titans’ receiving corps is looking up.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The Titans also added to their defensive line this off-season, drafting Penn State defensive tackle Austin Johnson in the 2nd round. The big 6-4 314 pounder could start at nose tackle immediately. He just needs to beat out incumbent Al Woods, a smaller player at 6-4 307 who struggled on 356 snaps last season and who has graded out below average in all 6 seasons he’s been in the league, since getting drafted in the 4th round in 2010. The Titans gave him a 3-year, 10.5 million dollar contract this off-season to keep him in Tennessee, ahead of his age 29 season, but Johnson is the future and likely the present at the position, while Woods will probably slot in as a reserve at all 3 spots on Tennessee’s 3-man defensive line.

Whichever player wins the job will play in base packages in between incumbent starting defensive ends DaQuan Jones and Jurrell Casey. Jones, a 4th round pick in 2014, had a breakout 2015 season in his first year as a starter. Jones played just 143 nondescript snaps as a rookie, but played 679 snaps in 16 starts in 2015 and finished 30th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus, well above average. He’s still a one-year wonder, but he’s only going into his age 25 season and his best football is likely still to come.

Casey is far more proven and much better, as he’s been quietly dominant on some bad Titan teams in recent years. Casey has played both 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end over the past 4 years and has finished in the top-8 at his position in all 4 years. Only going into his age 27 season and his 6th year in the league, Casey is in the prime of his career. The Titans made a wise decision locking him up for 36 million over 4 years two off-seasons ago, considering a comparable player like Malik Jackson got 90 million over 6 years from division rival Jacksonville this off-season.

Casey and Jones make a strong bookend in base packages, while top reserve Karl Klug is a solid player as well, grading out above average as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. The 6-3 278 pounder played 331 snaps as primarily a sub package rusher in 2015 and should have a similar role this season (his career high is 435 snaps in a season). He complements Jones well as the 6-4 322 pound Jones is best against the run and plays primarily in base packages; 376 of his 679 snaps in 2015 were on run plays. The Titans were smart to keep Klug on a 2-year, 3.8 million dollar deal this off-season as a free agent. It’s an underrated defensive line.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Titans also have a deep bunch at outside linebacker, especially after using a 2nd round pick on Clemson’s Kevin Dodd. They had major depth issues at the position last season, which became a big problem when starter Derrick Morgan missed the final 6 games of the season with injury. Morgan had a down year in general too, finishing just 49th out of 110 eligible edge defenders, above average, but not what we’re used to from him. He finished 5th among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012, 11th in 2013, and 8th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2014. Still only going into his age 27 season, he has a good chance to bounce back if he can stay healthy this year.

Brian Orakpo remains as the starter opposite him. He was much better than Morgan last season, finishing 25th among edge defenders. Most importantly, he was healthier than Morgan, playing all 16 games. That’s huge for Orakpo, considering injuries had limited him to a combined 24 games in the previous 3 seasons. As a result of his injury history, the Titans were able to get him for 32 million over 4 years in free agency last off-season, well worth it if he stays healthy. He was even better in 2011 and 2013 than he was last season, finishing 7th and 4th respectively among 3-4 outside linebackers in those two seasons. Prior to 2015, those were his last 2 healthy seasons. His injury history is still a concern, especially as he heads into his age 30 season, but he should still be a major asset for this team as long as he can stay on the field.

Inside, Avery Williamson remains one of the two starters. A steal of a 5th round pick, Williamson has made 27 starts in 2 years in the league. He was much better as a rookie than in his 2nd year in the league, ranking 17th among middle linebackers as a rookie in 2014, but falling all the way to 59th among 97 eligible linebackers in 2015. Even in a disappointing 2015 season, he still wasn’t terrible and a bounce back year is certainly a possibility. He’s locked in as a starter regardless.

At the other middle linebacker spot, veteran holdover Wesley Woodyard will compete with veteran free agent acquisition Sean Spence. Woodyard, an experienced veteran with 68 career starts, split snaps with free agent departure Zach Brown in 2015, but was fantastic in limited action, finishing 9th among linebackers on Pro Football Focus on 499 snaps. Purely playing in a base package role, Woodyard excelled against the run and wasn’t terrible in coverage either. Woodyard should at least keep the base package job and could be an every down player in 2016, as he’s been before in his career.

The soon-to-be-30-year-old Woodyard has graded out below average in 3 of the last 5 seasons though, since he became a starter, so expectations shouldn’t be too high for him. Spence isn’t very good either, but the Titans paid him 2.5 million on a 1-year deal, which isn’t chump change. He previously played under ex-Steelers/now-Titans defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau in Pittsburgh. Spence played 510 snaps for LeBeau’s Steeler defense in 2014, but graded out 41st out of 60 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. He only saw 270 snaps in 2015 and didn’t play well on those snaps either. He shouldn’t be anything more than a backup. Woodyard is a superior player. He’s also arguably the worst starter in a linebacking corps that looks strong going into 2016, especially with Morgan healthy and Dodd coming in.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The problem area on defense in 2015 for the Titans was the secondary, as the Titans finished 24th in rate of moving the chains allowed despite pretty decent front 7 play. Injuries to starting cornerbacks Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox left the Titans incredibly thin at cornerback for most of the season. McCourty missed 12 games, while Cox missed 3 games. They played in the same game just twice all season and, even when McCourty played, he was not healthy, as groin problems hampered him all season.

Prior to 2014, McCourty was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. From 2010-2013, he finished 20th, 8th, 6th, and 11th respectively among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. A lot of that had to do with his strong play against the run, but he still graded out 15th, 32nd, 23rd, and 17th respectively in those 4 seasons in coverage grade (all above average) and the fact that he was arguably the best cornerback in the NFL against the run in those 4 seasons was just a cherry on top. However, in 2014, he graded out below average for the first time since his rookie year in 2009 and then he had last season’s miserable year. There’s still bounce back potential with him if he can stay healthy in 2015, but, going into his age 29 season, two years removed from his last good season, it’s also very possible his best days are now behind him.

Cox was a lot better than McCourty in 2015 when he was healthy, grading out just slightly below average. He’s been a solid cornerback whenever he’s been on the field throughout his career, including a rookie year in which he graded out above average in 2010 and a strong 2014 season in which he finished 35th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Off-the-field issues derailed his career early, as he played just 249 snaps from 2011-2013, but he’s stayed out of trouble for a few years and has made the most of his second chance on the field. He’s a capable starter at the very least.

With all their injuries, Coty Sensabaugh actually led the team in snaps played by a cornerback with 1005. He was signed by the Rams this off-season, but he really didn’t play well last season, so he won’t be a huge loss. However, the player the Titans signed to replace him, Brice McCain, is not really any better. McCain finished 70th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks in 2015 and has graded out below average in 6 of 7 seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2009. Already going into his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to be any better this season. It was weird that the Titans did not address the cornerback position prior to the 5th round, when they drafted Southern Utah’s Leshaun Sims. At one point, prior to the Rams trading up to 1, it looked like the Titans might take Florida State cornerback Jalen Ramsey #1 overall.

The Titans also had a whole at safety to address in the draft and they did so fairly early, taking Middle Tennessee State’s Kevin Byard in the 3rd round. Byard is unlikely to begin the season as the starter, but could see playing time down the stretch. Veteran Rashad Johnson is expected to start, after signing a 1-year, 2 million dollar deal this off-season. Johnson has made 51 career starts in 7 years in the league, but was primarily a reserve for most of his career, as 30 of those starts have come in the last 2 seasons. He’s struggled in both seasons, finishing 77th out of 87 eligible safeties in 2014 and 50th out of 89 eligible in 2015. He’d be best off back in a reserve role and he’s unlikely to improve going into his age 30 season.

At the other safety spot, Da’Norris Searcy was easily the Titans’ best defensive back last season, in the first year of a 4-year, 23.75 million dollar deal. It was a risky deal at the time because Searcy had never played more than 753 snaps in a season and had just 23 career starts. However, Searcy was Pro Football Focus 18th ranked safety on 666 snaps in 2014 and jumped to 12th in 2015 on a career high 886 snaps. Only going into his age 28 season, the 2011 4th round pick has put together back-to-back strong seasons and looks poised for a 3rd. He headlines a secondary that could be better in 2016 if it can stay healthier.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Titans have won just 5 of 32 games over the past 2 seasons, but they’re closer than you’d think. Injuries kept them down on both sides of the ball last season, including 5 games missed by quarterback Marcus Mariota, but they still came close in a lot of their losses (4 losses by a field goal or less, 6 losses by a touchdown or less). If Mariota can stay healthy and take another step forward in his 2nd year in the league, it’ll be a big boost for this team. They’ve also done a good job improving the talent around Mariota, adding a couple solid free agents and adding a great return for the #1 pick in the draft, which allowed them to add a lot of young talent this year and gives them a stockpile of picks for next year. A young team with 23 million in cap space unused going into the season, the Titans might be a year away from being a real threat, but figure to be in the mix to win the wide open AFC South for at least most of the season.

Prediction: 8-8 1st in AFC South

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Indianapolis Colts (7-8)

This is another one where I wouldn’t touch either side with money. Both teams have serious quarterback problems. The Colts are on to their 4th quarterback of the year, Josh Freeman. Matt Hasselbeck was playing in the absence of starting quarterback Andrew Luck, but he got hurt last week and Charlie Whitehurst finished out. However, Whitehurst got hurt too, leaving the Colts with the choice between Stephen Morris, a 2014 undrafted free agent signed off of Philadelphia’s practice squad last week, Ryan Lindley, signed this week, and Josh Freeman, signed this week. They ultimately seem to have settled on Freeman as their best option, even though he wasn’t signed until Tuesday and definitely doesn’t know the playbook well enough to play yet. The Colts just didn’t have another option.

Freeman hasn’t seen regular season action since 2013, when he completed 42.9% of his passes for an average of 5.18 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions across 4 games with two teams. A capable quarterback as recently as 2012, Freeman is only 27 (28 next week), but saw his NFL career go south in a hurry and hasn’t been nearly impressive enough to make anyone’s roster since. His last NFL start came week 7 in 2013 for the Minnesota Vikings, who had just signed him less than 2 weeks prior, and it showed, as he completed 20 of 53 for 190 yards and an interception in what stands as the worst quarterback performance of the past few years. This time taking the field after just 5 days with the team, I wouldn’t rule out him being comparably bad. Hopefully he won’t have to pass as much this time.

The Titans, meanwhile, will start backup quarterback Zach Mettenberger in this one, with starter Marcus Mariota dealing with a knee injury. Mettenberger, a 2014 6th round pick, has completed 61.1% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 2 years in the league. He’s the better of the two quarterbacks in the game, but this might be the first time in his career you can say that about him. The Titans have moved the chains at a 56.88% rate this season in the 4 games where he’s led the team in pass attempts, as opposed to 72.78% in the other 11 games where Mariota was healthy.

The Colts have the better defense (ranking 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Titans) and more supporting talent on offense, but it’s hard to have any confidence in them given their quarterback situation, even in what figures to be a low scoring game that they could control with running and defense. Both of these teams are also likely in their final game with their current coach. Mike Mularkey has been the Titans’ interim Head Coach for 7 weeks since Ken Whisenhunt was fired, but doesn’t really have much of a shot of getting the long-term gig.

Meanwhile, Colts Head Coach Chuck Pagano is at the end of his contract and isn’t expected back after a down year and a falling out with the front office. The line on this one is 3.5, so for me to take the Colts, I’d have to be at least somewhat confident they could win by more than a field goal. I’m not, so I’m going the other way. Close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I can’t have any confidence in Tennessee either though.

Indianapolis Colts 13 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (7-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-11)

The line has finally been released for this one. I was hoping that if Brian Hoyer were ruled out for the 2nd straight week with a concussion that the Texans would be underdogs, as that would have opened up two very powerful trends. Divisional home favorites are 22-58 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, which the Titans will be in Indianapolis next week, and favorites are just 103-169 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, which the Texans will be at home for the Jaguars next week.

Brandon Weeden, who was claimed off of waivers mid-season from the Cowboys, will start for the Texans this week, as Hoyer has reportedly been ruled out and regular backup TJ Yates tore his ACL in his first start of the season last week. However, not only are the Texans not underdogs, they’re actually favored by 4 points here on the road. Not only are those trends no longer in play, but now the Texans have to cover a line that’s more significant than people realize, as about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer.

Fortunately for the Texans, they’re not the only one starting a backup quarterback, as talented Titans rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota will miss the final 2 games of the season with a knee sprain. Backup Zach Mettenberger will get the start and the Titans have moved the chains at a mere 59.26% rate in the 3 games where he’s been the team’s leader in pass attempts this season, including a week 8 start in Houston where the Titans moved the chains at a mere 53.57% rate in a 20-6 loss. In their other 11 games, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.78%.

Weeden is actually the 4th quarterback to start for the Texans this season, but that doesn’t matter much, as there isn’t really a notable difference between Weeden, Yates, and Ryan Mallett in terms of their ability to lead this offense. Brian Hoyer has been their best quarterback this year, as they’ve moved the chains at a 69.78% rate in the 10 games he’s led the team in pass attempts, as opposed to 68.06% in their other 4 games. The Texans’ defense, which ranks 8th in rate of moving the chains allowed, is easily the best unit in this game, as the Texans rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential despite a stagnant offense, while the Titans rank 25th, despite an offense that’s been decent when Mariota’s been healthy. Still, it’s hard to be confident in the Texans to cover as 4 point road favorites with a backup quarterback. In fact, I’m going the other way for a no confidence pick, as this could easily be a field goal win for Houston.

Houston Texans 13 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (3-10) at New England Patriots (11-2)

The Titans rank just 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have been pretty solid offensively, outside of the 2 games that talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota missed with injury. In those 2 games, they moved the chains at a 53.57% rate, as opposed to 72.78% in Mariota’s 11 starts. The Titans have more injuries around the quarterback now than they’ve had all season though. Cornerback Jason McCourty obviously remains out for the season and wide receiver Kendall Wright, safety Da’Norris Searcy, and wide receiver Kendall Wright are all out as well, all key contributors.

The Patriots are pretty banged up too though. Getting tight end Rob Gronkowski back from injury last week was huge and linebacker Dont’a Hightower and guard Josh Kline are expected back this week from 2 and 1 game absences respectively, but offensive tackle Nate Solder and running back Dion Lewis are out for the season, with running back LeGarrette Blount and defensive tackle Dominique Easley joining them after going down last week. Also going down last week was safety Devin McCourty, who is expected to miss this game with a high ankle sprain. On top of that, Julian Edelman will miss his 5th straight game with a foot injury. This line is probably too high at 14.

The Lions are helped by the fact that they are in their 2nd of two road games though. Teams are 126-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 103-63 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-222 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.45 points per game, as opposed to 317-433 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.75 points per game. There’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Titans, but they should be able to keep this one within 2 touchdowns.

New England Patriots 31 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +14

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at New York Jets: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (3-9) at New York Jets (7-5)

The Titans are coming off of a win, their 3rd of the season and an impressive offensive performance in a 42-39 victory. Despite having one of the worst records in the league for the 2nd straight year, the Titans are above the worst teams in the league in rate of moving the chains differential, coming in at 25th. They’ve also been significantly better offensively with Marcus Mariota healthy, as he is now. In the 2 games he missed with injury, they moved the chains at a 57.41% rate, as opposed to 73.68% in his 10 starts. However, the Titans are far from healthy right now, as wide receiver Kendall Wright and outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, key players on both sides of the ball, will join starting cornerback Jason McCourty, who is on injured reserve, on the sideline.

The Jets, meanwhile, are essentially injury free and they have been one of the least injured teams in the league all season. They have just one player listed as questionable, no one listed lower than questionable, and no one of note on injured reserve. They were missing talented center Nick Mangold with injury for a stretch, but he returned two weeks ago, and talented cornerback Darrelle Revis, who has missed the past two games with a concussion, returns this week. Mangold’s return has had a noticeable impact on the offense and Revis’ return should have a similar impact on the defense, though they played alright without him. The Jets rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and, fully healthy like they are now, they are a force to be reckoned with and a team that should be favored by more than a touchdown over a banged up Titans squad.

The Titans are also in a tough spot, with a trip to New England on deck, for a game where the Titans will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Underdogs of 6+ are 42-65 ATS before being underdogs of 6+ again, since 2012, as it’s very tough for an inferior team to keep the game close if they have an upcoming distraction like that. Furthermore, all teams are 35-54 ATS before being double digit underdogs, over that same time period, for similar reasons. It’s just too much of a distraction having such a huge game like that on deck. Combining the two, underdogs of 6+ are 18-44 ATS before being double digit underdogs, since 2010. The Jets are in a good spot, coming off of a road overtime win (56-44 ATS since 2002) and are distraction free, with a trip to Dallas on deck. They should be able to take care of business here at home pretty easily and they are my Pick of the Week.

New York Jets 27 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Tennessee Titans (2-9)

About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so the fact that this line is 2.5 in favor of the Titans at home, instead of 3, is very important, considering I think the Titans are the better of these two teams. That’s not what this line suggests, so the Titans are a really intriguing side to me. Despite their 2-9 record, tied for worst in the NFL, the Titans rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, so they’re not quite as bad as their record. They also have moved the chains at a 72.13% rate in Marcus Mariota’s 9 starts, as opposed to 57.41% in the 2 games he missed.

The Jaguars rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, but have gotten better as the season has gone on, as they had a rate of moving the chains differential of -10.95% in their first 3 games, as opposed to -4.61% in their last 8 games. What happened? Well, they got healthier, as left tackle Luke Joeckel, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and tight end Julius Thomas have all returned from early season injuries. However, they’re going to be without outside linebacker Dan Skuta and wide receiver Allen Hurns in this one, so they’re pretty banged up. Particularly the Hurns injury is going to hurt, because he’s playing so well this season and this is his first game missed. As long as this line stays under a field goal, I’d put money on the Titans.

Tennessee Titans 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Raiders, Titans, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (2-8)

The Raiders have lost 3 straight games since their 4-3 start, as player losses have caught up with them. They lost defensive end Justin Tuck for the season to injury before their bye week and have been without him for the past 5 games. Center Rodney Hudson is expected to miss his 2nd game in the past 3 weeks with an ankle injury. And outside linebacker Aldon Smith was suspended for the season before last week’s game and will miss his 2nd straight game this week. Those were 3 of their best players. The Raiders rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, but their talent level is much less than that without Tuck, Smith, and Hudson.

Tennessee, meanwhile, ranks 25th, but they have been significantly better offensively when talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota has been healthy. In the 8 games he’s played, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.27% rate, as opposed to 57.41% in the 2 games he missed. They also get top wide receiver Kendall Wright back from a 3 game absence this week and cornerback Perrish Cox returned last week, after missing 3 games. They’re missing cornerback Jason McCourty for the season and could be without outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, though McCourty has already missed 6 games and Morgan is expected to play. They’re missing fewer players than the Raiders and should not be home underdogs here by any amount, even only a couple points.

The Titans are in a much better spot than the Raiders too, hosting the lowly Jaguars next week, while the Raiders have to host a surging Chiefs team. Favorites are 96-166 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs (which the Raiders will be next week) when their opponent will next be favorites (which the Titans will be next week). On top of that, road favorites are 79-123 ATS before being home underdogs since 1989, including 8-23 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites. While the Raiders could be distracted this week by a tough, upcoming home game, the Titans should be focused. Because of that, they should be able to beat the banged up, slumping Raiders. Despite that, the public is all over the Raiders as road favorites. The public always loses money in the long run so I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, which it does here. This has all the elements of a Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Oakland Raiders 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)

Things seem to be looking up for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won their 3rd game of the season last week, on a last second field goal in Baltimore. Though just 3-6, Jacksonville is only a game out of first place in the AFC South, behind an Indianapolis team that just lost its starting quarterback for a month. The Jaguars also are favored and have a better record than their opponent this week, at home against the 2-7 Titans. This is just their 4th game since the start of the 2012 season in which they’ve been favored (1-2 ATS) and their 2nd game over that time period in which they’ve had a better record than their opponent. Not only are they field goal favorites, after a 2 point line movement between this week and last week, significant considering close to 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal, the Jaguars also have the backing of the public, at least to some extent. This is unprecedented for this team in recent memory.

The Jaguars have definitely been better over the past few weeks than they have been in recent years. In their past 6 games, they have a rate of moving the chains differential of-2.88%, which would rank 24th in the NFL on the season, significantly better than their overall rank on the season of 29th (-5.48%). What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. They got all of those players back, except Linder who is out for the season. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, though they lost Marks for the season last week, which hurts.

The Titans have had some pretty key injuries this season, including, most importantly, a two game absence by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, in which they scored a combined 13 points. In their other 7 games, they move the chains at a 72.32% rate. It hurts that top receiver Kendall Wright is out, but they should have success moving the chains against a weak Jacksonville defense. The Titans are also missing starting cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty. The defense has struggled without them this season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.36% rate on the season, and very rarely have both been off the field at the same time. Still, they’re the better team and I like getting field goal protection. There’s not enough here for me to be too confident though.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Titans, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (8-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-6)

The Panthers got a signature win last week, beating Green Bay 37-29, validating themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL. As a result, the public is all over them as 4.5 point favorites in Tennessee this week. As is usually the case when the public heavily backs one side, I’m going the other way. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense. I think it does here, as the Panthers could be in for a huge letdown game following that big win. Teams are 61-104 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010, including 15-32 ATS as favorites. Two weeks ago, the Broncos beat the previously undefeated Packers as home underdogs and proceeded to lose straight up as 6 point road favorites in Indianapolis last week. It’s hard to get up for a lesser opponent after such a huge win.

This line is also too high. The Panthers rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and have had arguably the toughest schedule of any undefeated team (winning in Seattle, at home for Philadelphia, at home for Indianapolis, and at home for Green Bay), but a trip to Tennessee isn’t a walk in the park, despite Tennessee having just 2 wins. The Titans have moved the chains at a 73.53% rate in the 6 games started by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 72.20% rate. They’re better than their record.

It hurts the Titans that they’ll be without starting cornerback Jason McCourty in this one, but they’ve had one or both of their starting cornerbacks (Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty) injured in 6 of 8 games this season and have still played decently defensively. On offense, wide receiver Kendall Wright is out, but Mariota was able to light up the Saints without him last week. The Panthers’ obviously have a way better defense than the Saints, but the Titans could still have some offensive success and keep this within 4 points at home. Mariota is playing very well as a rookie, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while leading the Titans to that aforementioned offensive success.

This line is too high and has fallen from 5.5 and even 6 earlier this week, despite the public being all over Carolina, likely as a result of sharp action on Tennessee. I am going to side with the sharps over the public this week, as is usually a good idea. The Titans are not to be overlooked, especially in Tennessee, and the Panthers could easily do that after last week’s huge home win over the Packers. The Titans are also in a good spot off of an overtime win in New Orleans last week. Teams are 57-42 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime win as underdogs, including 29-18 ATS as underdogs. I like the Titans a good deal.

Carolina Panthers 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4.5

Confidence: High

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