Titans

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

The Titans get Marcus Mariota back this week after he missed the past 2 weeks with a knee injury. The Titans lost both games without him to fall to 1-6 on the season and moved the chains at a 57.41% rate in those 2 games, as opposed to 72.89% in Mariota’s 5 starts. Mariota has played pretty well as a rookie, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, though it’s unclear how well he’ll play in his return from injury, especially without his top wide receiver Kendall Wright, who is out with an injury.

The Titans’ defense has been their better unit this season, ranking 10th in rate of moving the chains allowed, despite missing one of their two starting cornerbacks (Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox) in 5 of 7 games. McCourty is expected to be out this week, though Cox will return. As a result of the Titans’ solid defensive play, the Titans rank 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, despite missing their starting quarterback and best offensive player for 2 games. The Saints, meanwhile, rank 14th. Given that, this line seems a little high at 8 in favor of the Saints at home, despite the fact that the Saints are healthier than the Titans and healthier than they’ve been pretty much all season.

The Titans are also in their 2nd straight road game, which helps. Teams are 121-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 99-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game.

However, they’re also in a bad spot, with a tough game on deck against the undefeated Panthers in Tennessee next week. Teams are 41-80 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4+, 21-52 ATS before being home underdogs of 6+, and 13-30 ATS before being home underdogs of 7+, over that same time period. If the Titans are underdogs of 6+ next week (very possible), it opens up another trend, as underdogs of 6+ are 40-64 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again.

The Saints also have contrasting stuff on their side. On one hand, they’re at home and they have gone 35-18 ATS at home since 2008, excluding the season Sean Payton wasn’t on the sideline. However, they’re also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Additionally, teams are 28-48 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Saints won by a field goal as home favorites against the Giants last week. The Titans seem like the right side as 8 point road underdogs, but there’s not enough here for me to be confident, especially since the Titans just fired their coach. I just don’t know how the Titans will play this week, with their quarterback coming off of a significant injury, their top receiver missing his first game of the season, and the team transitioning to a new head coach without the luxury of a bye week.

New Orleans Saints 24 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +8

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5)

The Texans are going into a bye this week. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 37-61 ATS over that aforementioned time period, as they tend to get caught looking forward to the bye. That could definitely happen to the Texans, who are 4 point favorites here against the Titans.

This line is also probably too high, as the Titans rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Texans rank 18th. The Titans are missing quarterback Marcus Mariota and cornerback Perrish Cox for the 2nd straight game, but the Texans aren’t in a great situation injury wise either. Defensive starters Kareem Jackson and Benardrick McKinney remain out, while the Texans were dealt a crippling blow last week when Arian Foster tore his Achilles and went down for the season. I’m not confident in the Titans, but I’m taking them here.

Houston Texans 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

On paper, this line is too high at 6.5. The Falcons are good, a 5-1 team that ranks 8th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re coming off of a loss in New Orleans last week, but now they’re in their 2nd straight road game, which helps, and Matt Ryan is 25-12 ATS off of a loss in his career. The Titans, however, despite their record, actually rank 11th in that stat. They got blown out by the Dolphins at home last week, but they also blew out the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay week 1, lost by a combined 3 points to Buffalo and Indianapolis, and were a few plays away from a much different game in Cleveland.

However, they also hadn’t had many injuries until now. Not only is Perrish Cox, a talented starting cornerback, out for this one, quarterback Marcus Mariota is also out, obviously a huge loss. Zach Mettenberger is starting in his absence. Mettenberg flashed as a 6th round rookie last year, but ultimately showed why he fell so far in the draft, which is the reason Mariota was drafted 2nd overall. He’s got some nice tools, but he’s a backup caliber quarterback and a significant downgrade from Mariota.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have no notable injuries. They also don’t have an upcoming distraction, hosting the Buccaneers next week, in game in which they are expected to be 8 point favorites.  Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again, as 6+ point favorites are 109-67 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again. This makes sense, as good teams tend to take care of their business pretty easily when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. I’m hesitant to put money on the Falcons as favorites of quite this many, especially with the public all over them, but they should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)

The Dolphins have been a massive disappointment through 4 games, after finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 and seemingly getting better this off-season. They won in Washington, though only on a punt return touchdown, lost a close one in Jacksonville, who hasn’t beaten anyone else, and then got stomped by both Buffalo and the New York Jets, leading to the dismissal of head coach Joe Philbin, a move that was long overdue. Coming off a bye, with a much needed change at head coach, and with talented left tackle Branden Albert expected back from injury, the Dolphins should be much improved this week and, while they have major holes on the offensive line and in the secondary, they still have a good amount of talent, despite ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That might not translate to a win this week though, as the Titans, while also 1-3, are a solid bunch. They blew out Tampa Bay by a score of 42-14, came within 2 points of beating the Colts, came within a point of Buffalo and, while they lost by 14 in Cleveland, the Browns only moved the chains at a 69.57% rate, as opposed to 67.65% for Tennessee. On the season, they rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. They probably aren’t as good as that suggests, but it’s clear that they aren’t an easy team to beat. One of the worst teams in the league last season, the Titans are drastically improved on both sides of the ball this season and I like their chances of beating the Dolphins by at least 3 points and covering as 2.5 point home favorites here.

The reason I wouldn’t put money on the Titans is because they have to host the Falcons next week, while the Dolphins get to host the Texans. The Dolphins will definitely be favored in that game, while the Titans could easily be home underdogs when Atlanta comes to town, even after Atlanta was delivered their first loss of the season by the Saints on Thursday. If that still happens, it opens up a significant trend. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, as teams tend to be more focused than their opponent in spots like that. Even if the Titans end up being favored next week, the logic behind the trend still makes sense. Tennessee is my pick, but I’m not that confident.

Tennessee Titans 20 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-2)

Tennessee was originally going to be my Pick of the Week at the beginning of the week. I changed that for a few reasons. For one, the line moved from 3 in favor of Buffalo to 1 mid-week, which is a significant line movement, considering 23.3% of games are decided by 3 points or fewer. Instead of having field goal protection with the Titans, this line is now essentially a pick ‘em. Also, I was expecting the Bills to be home underdogs against Cincinnati next week. Teams are 48-64 ATS since 2002 as road favorites before being home underdogs, while favorites are 67-111 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the Titans host the Dolphins next week). However, apparently the early line has the Bills as 1.5 point favorites over the Bengals, while this line is dangerously close to Tennessee being favored over the Bills.

That being said, I still do like the Titans a lot this week. The line movement isn’t as big of a deal as it could be for two reasons. For one, the line movement is likely a result of injuries, which is reasonable. Both Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy have been ruled out with injury, leaving special teamer Bobbie Dixon and Boom Herron, signed this week, to split snaps at running back. Safety Aaron Williams is expected back from a neck injury, but wide receiver Sammy Watkins is expected to miss his 2nd straight game and the Bills really struggled offensively last week at home against the Giants without him. The second reason that the line movement isn’t as huge of a deal as it could be is because it’s probably driven by sharp money on the Titans.

The reason I say that is because the Titans are the better team in the better spot and yet they’re underdogs. The Titans rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank 20th. It’s important to remember that it’s still early (and the Titans have only played 3 games), but the Titans improved themselves a lot this off-season, adding Marcus Mariota, Perrish Cox, Da’Norris Searcy, and Brian Orakpo and I do think they’re better than the Bills. They shouldn’t be home underdogs here, even home underdogs of only a point.

Plus, if the Titans win this game, the Bills could easily be home underdogs against the Bengals next week, which would open up those two aforementioned trends. Even if those trends aren’t technically in play, the logic behind them still holds. The Bills have a much bigger upcoming distraction, a home game against the Bengals, than the Titans do, as the Titans host the Dolphins next week. That hurts the Bills’ chances of going into Tennessee and beating a Tennessee team that is, at the very least, comparably good to, it not better than Buffalo. Even though they’re not my Pick of the Week anymore, I still feel comfortable money on the Titans here as 1 point home underdogs.

Tennessee Titans 19 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +1

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

The Colts lost last week at home to the Jets, but they are 14-2 ATS in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era off of a loss. I mentioned their dominance off of a loss in recent years last week and it didn’t work out for me, but I still like their chances of bouncing back this week for a number of reasons. Last week’s game did show the Jets to be better than most, including myself, thought they were. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues his solid play from the past 2 years, despite his age, and is arguably the best quarterback the Jets have had since Chad Pennington was healthy, while first year head coach Todd Bowles has the defense playing well. That game also showed the Colts to be worse than most thought, as they have serious issues on the offensive line and on defense, especially with several significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Greg Toler and Darius Butler remain out for this game and those are their #2 and #3 cornerbacks, while top defensive lineman Arthur Jones was knocked out for the season before it even began.

However, there were also a lot of fluky elements to the Jets’ win in Indianapolis. The Jets won the turnover battle by 4, which tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams who have a -4 turnover margin have, on average, a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. The Colts are -7 in turnovers on the season, but that should improve going forward and that will have a noticeable effect in the standings and on the scoreboard. They also get Vontae Davis back from injury, after he missed more than half of last week’s loss with a concussion he suffered mid-game. He’s hands down their best defensive player and more important to this team than anyone other than Andrew Luck, so him being knocked out was a big deal.

Besides, 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the previous year are usually a safe bet, as they’ve gone 18-9 ATS week 1 since 2002. The Colts have never lost 3 straight regular season games in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era and I don’t expect that to happen this week. In fact, I expect the Colts to bounce back in a very big way. The Titans are also in a bad spot, playing their first home game of the season week 3. Teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989.

On top of that, the Colts have always taken care of business in the division over the past few years. A 10-12 team outside of the division since 2013, the Colts have been propped up by a 12-0 record (12-0 ATS) against their weak division. They’ve always played weak opponents, especially weak divisional opponents, well, but have struggled mightily against non-divisional opponents, especially strong non-divisional opponents. The Colts are 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later since 2012. I know the Titans are technically 1-1 and it’s only week 3, but the logic holds.

The Titans are an improved team over last year’s 2-win team, adding Brian Orakpo, Da’Norris Searcy, and Perrish Cox on defense and Marcus Mariota on offense, but they’re still the type of opponent the Colts usually beat easily, especially with top offensive lineman Chance Warmack out with injury. I am concerned about Trent Cole’s absence for the Colts and the Titans secretly being a solid team, but, and I know I said this last week, but I like the Colts’ chances of bouncing back in a big way this week, this time against a below average divisional opponent.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)

As I’ve mentioned many times before, I love fading significant week-to-week line movements, as they are usually the result of overreaction to one game, which creates line value. We have a case of that here as the Browns went from 4 home point favorites in the early line last week to 2 point home underdogs this week. It’s obvious why that happened, as the Browns lost 31-10 in New York to the Jets and the Titans won 42-14 in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers. However, I still think it’s an overreaction.

The Browns’ passing game is a serious problem, but they still have a top-5 offensive line and an above average defense. That wasn’t clear last week because the Browns turned it over 5 times, en route to a -4 turnover margin, but turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In fact, over the past 25 or so years, teams that post a -4 turnover margin in a game, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week.

Common bettors put too much stock into week-to-week turnover margin and, for that reason, they think the Browns are one of the worst few teams in the league, which is what this line suggests. I don’t think that’s true. In fact, I think that they are, in terms of talent level, comparable to the Titans, especially since the Titans will be without top cornerback Jason McCourty for the 2nd straight week. I had them both with a similar amount of wins going into the season, in my season previews.

The Titans are better at the quarterback position and coming off of a huge win, but they still have their fair share of problems and I don’t expect them to play as well as they did against the hapless Buccaneers every week. We’re getting a good amount of line value with the Browns as 1.5 point home underdogs. On top of that, home underdogs are 54-36 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as underdogs in which they had a -4 or worse turnover margin, largely as a result of public overreaction to single week turnover margins.

The Browns are also in a way better spot, with arguably their easiest game of the season on deck, with the Oakland Raiders coming to town. Meanwhile, the Titans have a much tougher and much more important matchup on deck as they host the 2-time defending AFC South Champion Indianapolis Colts, in a game where the Titans will almost certainly be home underdogs (the early line is at 3.5). Teams are 65-103 ATS as home underdogs of a field goal or more since 2012. In addition, road favorites are 78-120 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs, including 19-29 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being divisional home underdogs. With the Browns at home and the Titans in a bad spot, I really like the Browns’ chances of winning this game against a comparable opponent and I’ll take the two points with a good amount of confidence. This would be my Pick of the Week if I had any sort of faith in Johnny Manziel.

Cleveland Browns 17 Tennessee Titans 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: High

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Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

These two teams are in very similar situations. Both were awful last season, as both went 2-14. Subsequently, they had the #1 (Tampa Bay) and #2 (Tennessee) overall picks in the draft. Both teams, as so many terrible teams before them have, drafted quarterbacks atop the draft. The Buccaneers took 2013 Heisman winner Jameis Winston #1 overall, while the Titans took 2014 Heisman winner Marcus Mariota #1 overall. Both teams also play in awful divisions and have a very good chance to pick up a handful more wins this season.

Both teams are missing key players. Tampa Bay is missing top offensive lineman DeMar Dotson with injury, while Tennessee is missing top cornerback Jason McCourty and recently traded left guard Andy Levitre, unnecessarily creating a massive hole at that position. However, I’m going to take the Titans as 3 point underdogs here on the road for 3 reasons. For one, they have the better supporting cast and had the better off-season, adding the likes of Perrish Cox, Da’Norris Searcy, and Brian Orakpo in free agency. Tampa Bay added Henry Melton and Bruce Carter. The former is a solid defensive tackle, but Carter has already gotten benched, as his transition to middle linebacker really didn’t go.

For two, Jameis Winston struggled in the pre-season, while Mariota played pretty well. I hate putting a lot of stock in the pre-season, but it’s worth mentioning with these two rookies who will be counted on so much this season. Three, Tampa Bay’s home field advantage has been non-existent in recent years, as they’ve gone 15-34 ATS at home since 2009, including 5-10 ATS as home non-divisional favorites. Even if we assume these teams are equal (which I don’t think is true), this line should be lower than 3. I’m not that confident, but I like Tennessee’s chances to cover the 3 points and to also pull the upset.

Tennessee Titans 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans 2015 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

The Titans were one of the worst teams in the NFL last season, finishing 2-14 and 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. The problem wasn’t just on one side of the ball, as they ranked 30th in rate of moving the chains and 28th in rate of moving the chains allowed. The Titans made a fair amount of moves all over the field to try to fix that, but easily the most franchise defining one was the selection of quarterback Marcus Mariota 2nd overall, turning down multiple trade offers to select the ex-Oregon quarterback and 2014 Heisman award winner.

Most teams that are picking as high as the Titans did in this past draft are doing so largely as a result of poor quarterback play and the Titans are no exception. Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst, and Zach Mettenberger all saw significant playing time under center for the Titans last season, as the Titans tried to find some sort of answer and they all struggled. Combined, they completed 58.3% of their passes for an average of 7.29 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, a huge part of the reason why the Titans moved the chains at a mere 65.44% rate. The Titans were fortunate enough to be picking high in a year where a legitimate franchise quarterback option was available to them and smart enough to pull the trigger.

It’s unclear how good Mariota can be as a rookie, but he’ll probably be an upgrade over the trio that played last season. That being said, he is pretty raw, only turning 22 this season, coming over from what was very much a college style offense at the University of Oregon and now having to adapt to a Ken Whisenhunt offense that has historically not been very friendly to young quarterbacks. For what it’s worth, Whisenhunt has said he will tailor his offense to fit Mariota’s skill set and incorporate some of what Mariota did well in college.

I think, long-term, Mariota will be better than Jameis Winston, who went #1 overall to Tampa Bay, because of his superior accuracy and athleticism, but he could struggle as a rookie. Over the past 10 years, quarterbacks drafted in the top-5 have completed just 57.7% of their passes for an average of 6.85 YPA, 148 touchdowns, and 140 interceptions, finding life in the NFL much harder than they expected it to be. With a weak supporting cast around him, the Titans fans shouldn’t expect too much more than that from their rookie signal caller. Those kinds of numbers wouldn’t be a death sentence, as that group includes the likes of Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Matt Stafford, but it’s definitely a reality. Developing a young quarterback is a marathon, not a sprint.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

The Titans’ weak offensive supporting cast around Mariota isn’t for lack of trying, as they spent both a 2nd and a 3rd round pick on the offense. This shouldn’t be a surprise, considering how often teams that select a quarterback in the first round use their subsequent pick on an offensive player to help that quarterback. Since 2005, 19 of 25 teams that have selected a quarterback in the first round have used their next pick on an offensive player, which I don’t think is a coincidence.

For the Titans, that next pick was 40th overall in the 2nd round (after a trade down) and they used it on former Missouri and Oklahoma wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham. DGB has great talent, great upside, and off-the-charts athleticism (4.49 40 at 6-5 237), but was kicked off the Missouri football team for a variety of off-the-field issues and didn’t play at all last season, only practicing with the Oklahoma football team. If not for the off-the-field stuff, he would have been an easy top-10 pick, but between his unreliable character and the fact that he hasn’t played in a real game since 2013, he’s one of the riskiest picks in the draft. He’s the definition of a boom or bust draft pick. As a rookie, he’ll battle for playing time in an overall very unresolved receiving corps.

Nate Washington led the way with 782 snaps last season, grading out 80th among 110 eligible wide receivers, including 96th in pure pass catching grade. He signed as a free agent in Houston this off-season and, though he had some good years in Tennessee, he won’t really be missed, going into his age 32 season. Kendall Wright (678 snaps) and Justin Hunter (605 snaps) remain, but they also graded out below average. Wright wasn’t terrible, but Hunter graded out 89th out of 110 eligible wide receivers. In addition to adding Green-Beckham, the Titans also signed veteran Harry Douglas, who was cut by the Atlanta Falcons.

Wright is the only one locked into a role and should lead Titan wide receivers in catches for the 4th straight year. The 2012 1st round pick graded out below average as a rookie, but seemed to have a breakout year in 2013. He caught 94 of 134 passes (70.1%) for 1079 yards and 2 touchdowns on 539 routes run, an average of 2.00 yards per route run, and graded out 18th among wide receivers that season. However, he saw his slash line fall to 57/715/6 in 2014 and, while he wasn’t horrible, he still graded out below average.

In 3 seasons in the league, he’s caught 215 of 315 passes (68.3%) for 2420 yards and 12 touchdowns on 1407 routes run, an average of 1.72 yards per route run. Part of his inability to put up #1 receiver numbers has to do with poor quarterback play and he hasn’t been a bust or anything, but he hasn’t shown himself to be anything more than a complementary receiver and the Titans are asking him to be a coverage changing #1 guy. The Titans picked up his 7.32 million dollar option for 2016, but that’s guaranteed for injury only, so the fact that they did that doesn’t tell us a ton. They’ll be hoping he can have a bounce back year and provide a consistent target for their rookie quarterback.

The other three (Green-Beckham, Hunter, and Harry Douglas) will compete for the other starting job and playing time in 3-wide receiver sets. Hunter was predicted by many to have a breakout year last season and he certainly has the athleticism, as the 2013 2nd round pick ran a 4.44 40 at 6-4 196, but instead he fell flat on his face. He also graded out below average on 340 snaps as a rookie and has overall been a disappointment thus far. The Titans are probably holding out hope that he can have a breakout year this year, but the selection of Green-Beckham suggests they’re not too confident. Hunter could wind up as far down the depth chart as 4th.

Douglas, meanwhile, has never graded out above average in his career, since the Falcons took him in the 3rd round in 2008, largely playing as a slot specialist. Even in 2013, when he caught 85 passes for 1068 yards and 2 touchdowns in place of an injured Julio Jones, he wasn’t very efficient, as he was targeted 126 times. Things won’t get better as he heads into his age 30 season in 2015. He was cut by the Falcons this off-season to save 3.5 million and the Titans signed him as veteran insurance, bringing him in on a 3-year, 11.25 million dollar deal that actually pays him more than 3.5 million annually. If he has to play a significant role this season, the Titans are in trouble in the receiving corps, but that could very well happen.

Tight end Delanie Walker actually led the Titans in catches and receiving yards last season, catching 63 passes on 100 attempts (63.0%) for 890 yards and 4 touchdowns on 503 routes run, an average of 1.77 yards per route run. Primarily a blocker throughout his career, since going in the 6th round in 2006, the Titans signed him to a 4-year, 17.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago with the intention of turning him into an every down tight end who could contribute in the passing game. It was a weird move and it looked like it wouldn’t work out as Walker put up just a 60/571/6 slash line in his first season in Tennessee, grading out below average in pass catching grade once again.

However, Walker inexplicably broke out as a pass catcher in 2014, grading out above average in pass catching grade for the first time since 2008 (when he played just 143 snaps). Overall, he was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked tight end. Now going into his age 31 season, I’m skeptical that he can replicate that strong season as a receiver, but he should once again be a strong blocker at the very least. He’s graded out above average as a run blocker in all 8 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history. He’s not a bad player, but when he’s your best offensive playmaker, you’re in trouble.

Anthony Fasano, who the Titans signed to a 2-year, 5.25 million dollar deal this off-season, will probably be the #2 tight end, focusing primarily on blocking in two-tight end sets. Anthony Fasano played 678 snaps in 2014 for the Chiefs at tight end, but he struggled mightily, grading out 61st out of 67 eligible, and now he’s going into his age 31 season. The Chiefs cut him to save 3.1 million. Fasano graded out above average in every season from 2007-2012, including 6th in 2011 and 18th in 2012, but those days are likely long gone. He’s a decent #2 tight end at best. It’s not a good receiving corps that Mariota has to work with.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

Not only did the Titans use a 2nd round pick on Dorial Green-Beckham after taking Marcus Mariota 2nd overall, they also used their 3rd round pick on an offensive player, taking offensive lineman Jeremiah Poutasi. He could start at right tackle as a rookie, following the release of Michael Oher, who graded out 75th among 84 eligible offensive tackles last season in 11 starts, before going down for the season with injury. That would definitely be a problem, especially since many draft experts thought he’d need to move to guard in the NFL because of his lack of athleticism, but the Titans don’t have another option.

Poutasi will compete with veterans Byron Bell and Byron Stingily. Bell is experienced, with 56 starts in 4 seasons since the Panthers signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2011, but he’s not very good at all. He was horrible to start his career at right tackle, grading out 69th out of 76 eligible in 2011, 61st out of 80 eligible in 2012, and 53rd out of 76 eligible in 2013. Predictably, he wasn’t better in 2014 when forced to play the blindside, grading out 83rd out of 84 eligible. Stingily, meanwhile, was a 2011 6th round pick. He’s graded out above average just once in 4 seasons in the NFL (2012) and has never played more than the 248 snaps he played last season. He played horribly in limited action last season. Even with Oher gone, right tackle remains a massive problem, to the point where the Titans’ best option might be to start a 3rd round rookie.

Taylor Lewan will start on the other side. The 2014 1st round pick was stuck behind veterans Michael Oher and Michael Roos when he was drafted, but made his first start week 6, after Roos went down for the season with injury. Lewan graded out above average on 359 snaps before going down for the season week 12 with an injury of his own. With Roos retiring ahead of his age 33 season this off-season, Lewan will go into his 2nd season as the undisputed starter and, now healthy, he has the talent to have a breakout year on the blindside. That’s not necessarily going to happen and he’s still unproven, but he is one of the few bright spots on this offensive line and having him healthy and starting for a whole season will be a boost to this team.

With so many injuries and inconsistencies upfront, the Titans had 12 different offensive linemen play a snap last season. Only 3 of them graded out above average on Pro Football Focus, the retired Roos, Lewan, and right guard Chance Warmack. Warmack, the 10th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, hasn’t quite lived up to his potential, but he’s made 32 starts in 2 seasons in the league and played decently, grading out slightly below average as a rookie and slightly above average last season. That, by default, makes him one of the best players on the Titans’ offensive line, and, only going into his age 24 season, he still has a good chance to continue improving. During the final 7 weeks of last season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked guard, a small sample size, but a very good sign for 2015 and beyond.

At the other guard spot, Andy Levitre will start once again. The 2009 2nd round pick has made all 96 starts in 6 seasons in the league, but graded out below average for the first time since his rookie year in 2014. The Titans, who signed him to a 6-year, 46.8 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, kept him at a scheduled non-guaranteed 6.5 million dollar salary for 2015 because they have a bunch of cap space, no better alternative, and they believe he can bounce back. Levitre graded out 36th, 5th, 8th, and 13th in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively and he is only going into his age 29 season, so there definitely is bounce back potential.

Outside of Lewan and Warmack and maybe Levitre, the rest of the offensive line is in trouble. I already mentioned their problems at right tackle; things at center aren’t any better. Brian Schwenke was the starter there last season, grading out 32nd among 41 eligible centers before going down for the season week 12. He wasn’t any better as a 4th round rookie in 2013, grading out 30th among 35 eligible centers on 573 snaps, no surprise given where he was drafted. He doesn’t project as a starting caliber player long-term, but the Titans don’t have another option.

Chris Spencer took over for him after he went down for the season, but he was even worse and now is a free agent expected to retire ahead of his age 33 season, leaving the Titans with only 6th round rookie Andy Gallik behind Schwenke. Gallik probably won’t be an upgrade, but he could see action as a rookie because it’s such a problem position. It’s not a good offensive line, but if Lewan can stay healthy, Levitre can bounce back, and Warmack can continue developing, they should be improved this season and help this offense move the chains more effectively.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

Another thing the Titans can do move the chains better in 2015 is to run the ball better, after they rushed for 4.06 yards per carry last season, 18th in the NFL. Even worse, they picked up just 75 first downs on the ground, 25th in the NFL, 19 of which came from quarterbacks and wide receivers. You can’t really blame the offensive line for that as, while they ranked 28th in team pass blocking grade last season, they were middle of the pack (14th) in run blocking. Bishop Sankey and Shonn Greene led the team in carries with 152 and 94 carries respectively and combined for just 44 rushing first downs on 246 carries. Sankey rushed for 569 yards and 2 touchdowns on 152 carries, an average of 3.74 YPC, while Greene rushed for 392 yards and 2 touchdowns on 94 carries, an average of 4.17 YPC.

Greene was let go this off-season, owed a non-guaranteed 3.35 million ahead of his age 30 season, but Sankey remains. The 2014 2nd round pick was a bust as a rookie, not just struggling on the ground, but also struggling as a receiver, adding just 18 catches for 133 yards. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league, but there are definitely no guarantees. More of a finesse runner at 5-10 209, Sankey could end up splitting carries in 2015 with 5th round rookie David Cobb, who is more of a powerful runner at 5-11 229, but fell in the draft because of a severe lack of speed and agility. It’s an underwhelming young duo of running backs.

Dexter McCluster remains as gadget player and an obvious passing situation running back behind both of them. The running back/wide receiver hybrid rushed for just 131 yards on 40 carries last season and has a career average of just 4.13 yards per carry on 192 carries, but he did add 26 catches for 191 yards and a touchdown last season and graded out above average on 238 snaps as a result. He definitely wasn’t worth the 3-year, 9 million dollar deal the Titans gave him last off-season, as they really like overpaying for marginal offensive talent (Shonn Greene, Anthony Fasano, Harry Douglas, etc.), but he does a serve. With Leon Washington (22 catches for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns last season) gone and the coaching staff, for whatever reason, talking about getting McCluster more involved, he could have 30-40 catches this season. He won’t help the Titans on the ground though.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the Titans didn’t take any meaningful steps to improve their offense in the short-term (aside from maybe the selection of Mariota), they did take steps on defense, adding cornerback Perrish Cox, outside linebacker Brian Orakpo, and safety Da’Norris Searcy, all of whom are above average starters, in order to fix what was one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season. They didn’t really do anything on the defensive line, but that might not be the end of the world, as their defensive line wasn’t a huge problem last season.

Jurrell Casey led the way with 931 snaps played, epitomizing an every down player. The 2011 3rd round pick has developed into one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL and got a well-deserved 4-year, 36 million dollar extension last off-season. Casey spent the first 3 years of his career in a 4-3, grading out 16th, 8th, and 5th among defensive tackles, and then showed his scheme versatility when the Titans switched to a 3-4 last off-season. He graded out 7th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2014, as one of the Titans’ lone bright spots. Only going into his age 26 season, I expect more of the same from him this season, only with a better supporting cast.

The rest of the Titans’ 3-man defensive line is largely up for grabs, but there are some talented players in the mix. Sammie Lee Hill (597 snaps), Ropati Pitoitua (394 snaps), Mike Martin (357 snaps), Karl Klug (338 snaps), Al Woods (297 snaps), and DaQuan Jones (143 snaps) all played a decent amount last season and all 6 will return and play a decent amount of snaps again. Sammie Lee Hill was their starting nose tackle last season. The 2009 4th round pick graded out above average in every season from 2010-2013, but never played more than 437 snaps in any of those seasons and graded out below average last season on a career high 597 snaps. He probably won’t play as many snaps again this season and he should be in the 300-500 snap range again. He’s a solid rotational player who has a good chance to bounce back in 2015. The 6-4 329 pounder can play both nose tackle and defensive end in a 3-4 defense.

Ropati Pitoitua played 12 games last season, starting 11 of them, and primarily playing in base packages. He graded out 9th among 3-4 defensive ends in pure run stopping grade, but didn’t do much as a pass rusher. This is nothing new for him as he’s graded out above average as a run stopper in each of the last 2 seasons, but hasn’t graded out above average as a pass rusher since 2009, when he played just 48 snaps. The 2008 undrafted free agent is already going into his age 30 season and is only a base package player. Like Hill, Pitoitua will probably play fewer snaps per game this season because the Titans have mentioned they see 2014 4th round pick DaQuan Jones as a starter this season and he should have a regular role, at least in base packages, after he played just 143 below average snaps as a rookie. The 6-4 323 pounder could see action at both nose tackle and defensive end. I don’t have a ton of faith in him, but he could surprise.

Mike Martin and Karl Klug fit in as sub package rushers. Both graded out above average as pass rushers last season. Martin, a 2012 3rd round pick, has never played more than 435 snaps in a season and has only once graded out above average against the run, but he’s graded out above average as a pass rusher in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, maxing out at 10th among defensive tackles in 2013. He should have a similar season again this year on 300-400 or so snaps. Klug, meanwhile, is a similar, but probably slightly better player. The 2011 5th round pick has graded out above average as a pass rusher in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, maxing out at 10th in 2013, but has never graded out above average as a pass rusher or played more than 520 snaps in a season.

Woods rounds out the group and is probably the worst of the bunch, grading out below average in all 5 seasons he’s been in the league since getting drafted in the 4th round in 2010, never playing more than 297 snaps in a season. The 6-4 314 pounder was a backup nose tackle last season. He won’t have a very big role at all this season and will almost definitely play the fewest snaps of the bunch. Things won’t be too much different on the defensive line this season, but that’s not going to be a big issue because the defensive line wasn’t the problem last season.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The problem last season was the linebackers and the secondary and the Titans did a good job of adding talent there in free agency. Brian Orakpo comes over as a free agent from Washington on a 4-year, 31 million dollar deal, upgrading a position where Kamerion Wimbley, Shaun Phillips, and Quentin Groves were awful last season on 549, 362, and 249 snaps respectively. Wimbley and Phillips graded out 44th and 43rd respectively out of 46 eligible 3-4 outside linebackers, while Groves would have graded out 4th worst at the position if he had been eligible, despite such limited playing time. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse at the position than Groves.

Orakpo should be a substantial upgrade. Orakpo was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and was franchised tagged as a result. However, Orakpo ended up missing 9 games with a torn pectoral in 2014, the 3rd time in his career that he’s torn his pectoral. Now he hits free agency again having missed 24 of 48 games over the past 3 seasons with torn pectorals. He’s very talented when he’s on the field though. In addition to his strong 2013, the 2009 1st round pick also ranked 7th at his position in 2011. He’s an obvious injury risk, but he has a huge upside, still only going into his age 29 season.

He’ll play opposite Derrick Morgan, who was re-signed to a 4-year, 27 million dollar deal this off-season. A rare first round hit by the Titans, Derrick Morgan’s career got off to a slow start as he was limited to 112 snaps by a torn ACL as a rookie in 2010 and struggled in his return from that injury in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible. However, he’s graded out above average in each of the past three seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013, and 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014. Most importantly, he’s missed just 2 games over the past 4 seasons and doesn’t have any significant injuries on his record other than that torn ACL. His scheme versatility and his pass rush ability are very valuable and the Titans did well to lock up a talented young player. The only issue at outside linebacker is depth as 6th round rookie Deiontrez Mount could be their 3rd outside linebacker, which would become an issue if Orakpo were to get hurt again. However, Orakpo and Morgan are one of the best edge rusher duos in the NFL, as long as both are healthy.

Inside at middle linebacker, Avery Williamson was a steal as a 5th round rookie last season, playing 834 snaps, making 12 starts, and grading out above average, 17th among middle linebackers. He’s still a one-year wonder and I don’t think he’s at the point where the fact that the whole league let him drop to the 5th round is irrelevant, but he definitely looks like a steal and could easily be a long-term starter. He should remain a starter in 2015.

Zach Brown, who missed all but 4 snaps last season with a torn pectoral, opening the door for Williamson, will compete with fellow veteran Wesley Woodyard for the other starting middle linebacker job and appears to be the favorite right now. The 2012 2nd round pick Brown graded out slightly above average as a rookie and slightly below average in 2013, making a combined 27 starts in those 2 seasons at outside linebacker in the Titans’ old 4-3 defense. Prior to last season, he had never missed a game with injury in his NFL career so I wouldn’t classify him as injury prone and he should be able to have a solid bounce back year.

Woodyard, meanwhile, signed a 4-year, 15.75 million dollar deal last off-season, coming over from Denver, but struggled in his first season in Tennessee, grading out 42nd among 60 eligible middle linebackers. The 2008 undrafted free agent is experienced, with 48 starts over the past 4 seasons, but he’s graded out below average in 3 of those 4 seasons. With Brown and Williamson being better starting options, Woodyard could be just an expensive backup this season, making 2.75 million. He fits the Titans’ recent theme of overpaying for marginal veterans. With Brown healthy and Orakpo coming in, it’s a much improved linebacking corps.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The secondary was a problem last season as well for the Titans and one they tried to fix this off-season with the additions of cornerback Perrish Cox and safety Da’Norris Searcy on a 3-year, 15 million dollar deal and a 4-year, 23.75 million dollar deal respectively. Cox will start at cornerback, where Blidi Wreh-Wilson started last season and graded out 106th among 110 eligible cornerbacks. Cox should be a significant upgrade, coming over from San Francisco. He was Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked cornerback last season in a breakout year.

Cox’s career has had an interesting trajectory. He was a 5th round pick by the Broncos in 2010 and graded out above average on 787 snaps as a rookie, but was let go after one year after being arrested on multiple sexual assault charges. Cox was out of the league entirely in 2011 because of those charges, coupled with a history of off-the-field issues from his collegiate days at Oklahoma State, which dropped him in the draft in the first place. However, early in 2012, he was found not guilty and the 49ers gave him another chance. He didn’t play much in either 2012 or 2013, playing 168 snaps in 2012 and 81 snaps in 2013 (11 of which were actually with the Seahawks). However, injuries opened up a starting role for him back with the 49ers in 2014 and he didn’t look back, playing 965 snaps, making 14 starts, and grading above average. He’s obviously a risky signing given his history, but he clearly has talent, showing it in both of his stints as a starter.

Cox will push Blidi Wreh-Wilson to 3rd on the depth cornerback at best. The 2013 3rd round pick flashed on 93 snaps as a rookie in 2013, but proved incompetent in his first season as a starter in 2014, leading to the addition of Cox. There’s still time for him to turn it around and I like him better as a 3rd cornerback, but I don’t have a ton of hope for his future. He’ll have to hold off Coty Sensabaugh for the #3 job. Sensabaugh, a 2012 4th round pick, has been the #3 cornerback for the past 2 seasons, after struggling on 319 snaps as a rookie. He graded out above average on 509 snaps in 2013, but graded out 96th among 108 eligible cornerbacks on 737 snaps in 2014. Whoever wins this battle, I expect them to struggle.

Searcy, meanwhile, will take over a starting spot at safety where the Titans had struggles last season. Bernard Pollard played decently through 5 games and 351 snaps there last season for the Titans, but then went down for the season, leaving George Wilson to start and he graded out 82nd among 87 eligible safeties. Going into his age 34 season, Wilson remains unsigned as of this writing and will likely have to retire. Searcy, a 2011 4th round pick, should be an upgrade.

Searcy played just 511 snaps in his first 2 seasons in 2011 and 2012, but he made 20 starts over the past 2 seasons as a hybrid safety/linebacker at 5-11 223. He’s never played more than 753 snaps in a season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked safety in 2014 (on 666 snaps) and only slightly below average in 2013, so I expected someone would give him starter’s money to be a traditional, every down starting safety for them. It’s a risky move for the Titans, but, like the Cox deal, I think it’s a solid value and, like the Cox deal, I think it will really help this secondary.

At the other two starting spots in the secondary, the Titans will be counting on bounce back years from cornerback Jason McCourty and safety Michael Griffin. McCourty graded out below average last season for the first time since he was a 6th round rookie in 2009. He’s made 63 of 64 starts since 2011 and graded out 20th, 8th, 6th, and 11th respectively from 2010-2013. A lot of that has to do with his strong play against the run, but he still graded out 15th, 32nd, 23rd, and 17th respectively in those 4 seasons in coverage grade (all above average) and the fact that he was arguably the best cornerback in the NFL against the run in those 4 seasons is just a cherry on top. Only going into his age 28 season, I like his bounce back potential, which would really help this secondary.

Griffin’s bounce back potential is a little bit more questionable. The 2007 1st round pick has had some great seasons, but he’s also been incredibly inconsistent throughout his career. Griffin has graded out 37th, 9th, 41st, 10th, and 14th among safeties in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2013 respectively, but also 87th out of 88 eligible in 2009, 87th out of 88 eligible in 2012, and 83rd out of 87 eligible in 2014. It’s really tough to know what to expect from him next season, especially as he goes into his age 30 season. The Titans kept him on board at a 6.3 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in hopes that he’d bounce back, but that was mostly because they had so much cap space that they could afford to. If I had to guess, I’d say it’s more likely that he’s better this season than worse. He still might not be good, but he’s part of a secondary that should be much improved from last season on a defense that should be much improved from last season.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

I think the Titans had a pretty good off-season. They added a quarterback who I think will be the best quarterback in this draft class and a franchise quarterback long-term. He might not be great right away in the short-term, but he should be an upgrade over what they had last season and the Titans added talent to their defense to help in the short-term. I don’t see this team sneaking into the playoffs or anything, unless Mariota goes crazy as a rookie and elevates a poor offensive supporting cast that is only relying on bounce back years to improve, but they have a pretty easy schedule and should win a decent amount of games. They should also be healthier after having the 11th most injuries in the NFL last season, in terms of adjusted games lost, including some to some of their better players (Zach Brown and Taylor Lewan come to mind).

The Titans over/under right now is 5.5 wins. Teams that have an over/under of 6 or fewer usually go over more often than not. This year, Tennessee is joined by Oakland, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay in that group and I definitely think Tennessee has a better chance to go over than both Oakland and Jacksonville and maybe even Tampa Bay, who also adds a rookie quarterback. There’s money to be made here. At the very least, the Titans won’t be the pushover they were last season when they lost 10 games by more than a touchdown and will be much tougher for teams to beat. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Titans after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 7-9 2nd in AFC South

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Tennessee Titans sign OLB Brian Orakpo

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

For a while, it looked like the Titans weren’t going to do much in free agency, despite a ton of cap space and holes all over a roster that went 2-14 last season. Turns out, they were just being patient and waiting for price tags to drop to where they felt they were appropriate, a surprising showing of savvy by a front office that has rightfully taken a lot of heat for their moves over the past few years. My theory has always been that bad teams always make moves early in free agency, while the good teams wait for the market to come to them a few days later.

The counter to that is that bad teams need to make moves early in free agency to find guys that will make significant impacts on their team and they need to overpay to get those players to join their team, while good teams have the luxury of being only need to patch up a few holes and the ability to get guys to come to their team on cheaper deals because players want to win. The Titans (and the Redskins to a similar extent) are proving that bad teams can execute this strategy as well and I think it will serve them well as they look for bounce back years in 2015. The Titans have re-signed Derrick Morgan and brought in Da’Norris Searcy, Perrish Cox, and now Brian Orakpo, four guys who all have a good chance to be above average starters on this defense next season, and didn’t overpay any of them.

I don’t like this move quite as much as the move to re-sign Derrick Morgan, as the total value of this deal (32 million over 4 years) is 5 million dollars more than Morgan got and the guarantee (13.5 million) is 3 million dollars more than Orakpo got, even though Morgan has missed 2 games in the last 4 seasons combined, while Orakpo has missed 24 games over the past 3 seasons. However, Orakpo offers more upside than Morgan does. Orakpo was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranking 3-4 outside linebacker in 2011 and their 4th ranked in 2013, earning him the franchise tag. He has seasons cut very short by injury in between, which makes this a risky signing, but I think it’s a solid value. Orakpo could have gotten upwards of 50+ million over 5 years last off-season had he been allowed to reach the open market.

Grade: B

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