Offense

Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans were always one of the most conservative offenses in the league. However, that’s no longer the case. Head Coach Mike Munchak, along with offensive coordinator Chris Palmer, has instituted a more wide open, pass heavy offense. Only Detroit and Tampa Bay ran less than the Titans did last year as the Titans ran 376 times, 208 times fewer than the 584 times they passed. Only Detroit and Tampa Bay had a bigger disparity.

The Titans used another 1^st round pick on a wide receiver in the 2012 NFL Draft in Kendall Wright, despite having two talented, young wide receivers, Nate Washington and Kenny Britt, on the team. Britt has limitless potential, but the 2009 1^st round pick will have to stay healthy, while Washington caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns in Britt’s absence last year. He’s only heading into his age 29 season. The Titans also have another talented young receiver, tight end Jared Cook. The 2009 2^nd round pick also has limitless potential and ended last season on fire.

Quarterback

The major question for the Titans is quarterback. It’s not just about whether or not their quarterbacks can lead this team, but also which quarterback it will be. Matt Hasselbeck led this team to 9-7 last season, but he’s heading into his age 37 season and Jake Locker, the 8^th overall pick in 2011, played very well in place of Hasselbeck when he was hurt last year, completing 51.5% of his passes for 8.2 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

It’s really tough to predict what’s going to happen for this team this year because we don’t know who the quarterback is. Jake Locker could take over this team, but the raw former 8^th overall pick could struggle through the growing pains of being a young quarterback and the rest of the team could struggle with him. He could also get benched for the veteran Hasselbeck after winning the starting job, which could disrupt team chemsitry. Likewise, Hasselbeck could start the season and get replaced with Locker after struggling and the same thing could happen. The absolute worse situation would be if the team has to change quarterbacks twice or more. Teams don’t often make the playoffs after benching their quarterback.

At the same time, the Titans could start Hasselbeck again and the veteran could game manage this team to another solid year. Or Locker could start, show his potential, and guide a talented supporting cast to 10 or 11 wins, a playoff spot and maybe an AFC South title. This team could be anything from 5-11 or 6-10 to 10-6 or 11-5.

The Titans sound like they share my concerns about Locker and the growing pains of him being a young quarterback. Though they will have an open competition in Training Camp, Hasselbeck sounds like the favorite right now given reports from reporters who know the team, as well as comments made by members of the organization themselves, including that the winner of the quarterback battle would be based on more than just stats and that they’ll take the schedule into account. Hasselbeck’s veteran leadership is something more than just stats and their early schedule (New England, San Diego, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Pittsburgh) would be very unfriendly for a young, inexperienced quarterback.

The Titans feel they have a team that can compete for a playoff spot this year and rightfully so. Last year, they were 9-7 and the only team in the NFL to have a record better than .500 and miss the playoffs. They have a veteran quarterback who should still be capable of game managing this team and, in win now mode, it makes sense to go with him rather than a boom or bust quarterback like Locker, at least until Hasselbeck slips up. He could slip up this year because of his age, but more likely, we won’t see Locker much until 2013, which could be exactly what he needs as he was seen as very raw coming out of Washington last year. Hasselbeck completed 61.6% of his passes for an average of 6.9 YPA and 18 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, very respectable numbers.

Grade: B-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Hasselbeck has the ability to post even better numbers this year because of the improved offensive supporting cast he will likely have. This is a very talented team. That’s why they would be better off with a capable veteran rather than a boom or bust 2^nd year quarterback. Kenny Britt should be back. Kendall Wright is added to the mix. And Jared Cook could have a break out year.

Let’s start with Britt. Britt has limitless talent, catching 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 14 full games, extrapolated to 64 catches for 1310 yards and 14 touchdowns over a full 16 game slate and he’s done that despite inconsistent and less than stellar quarterback play (Vince Young, Rusty Smith, Kerry Collins, Matt Hasselbeck). However, he missed 13 and ½ games last year with a torn ACL and needed further surgery on that knee this offseason.

The surgery was minor and he’ll be back for week 1 most likely, but additional surgery is never a good sign. Defensive end Derrick Morgan had the same surgery last offseason after tearing his ACL in 2010. The 2010 16^th overall pick managed just 3 sacks in 14 games last year. It’s a concern. The good news is that Britt is not yet 24 until September and he truly does have limitless upside and he should be out there week 1.

The Titans brought in some insurance in the 1^st round this year, using the 20^th overall pick on Kendall Wright. If Britt is healthy, Wright will still contribute heavily in the growing amount of 3-wide receiver sets the Titans use. Rookie wide receivers normally take a year or two to adjust to the speed of the NFL and to learn a much more complex playbook, but Wright should still be a dynamic weapon out of the slot.

Jared Cook, meanwhile, was a 2009 2^nd round pick. With a 4.50 40 at 6-5 246 in 2009, he ran the fastest 40 yard dash time for a tight end since Vernon Davis. Last year was by far his best year with 49 catches for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns, but if the way he closed out the season is any indication, 21 catches for 335 yards and a score in their final 3 games, he could be due for a breakout year in 2012.

Nate Washington, meanwhile, returns off a season in which he caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns. It’s reasonable to expect those numbers to go down with more competition for balls this year. His 118 targets last year were tied for 15^th in the league, one spot ahead of Mike Wallace and tied with Percy Harvin. However, he still was able to step up and be the #1 receiver last year. The issue was their depth behind him. Guys like Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins had to step up and both were very inconsistent. With Britt returning and Wright coming in, to go with Washington, that shouldn’t be an issue this year.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One other issue last year was Chris Johnson. Just 2 seasons removed from setting the league’s yards from scrimmage record in 2009, Johnson really struggled last year. Part of it was his interior blocking (which I’ll get into later), but part of it was just that he was totally out of shape after an extended hold out that ended just a few days before the season. He didn’t participate in Training Camp with a new coaching staff coming in and he didn’t stay in shape enough on his own.

The good news is that he got better as the season went on. After rushing for a pathetic 366 yards and 1 touchdown on 121 carries (3.0 YPC) in the team’s first 8 games, he rushed for 681 yards and 3 touchdowns on 141 carries (4.8 YPC) the rest of the way. Over 16 games, that’s 1362 yards and 6 scores on 282 carries. That’s not too shabby and that 4.8 YPC is right on par with his career average. Johnson has been working tirelessly this offseason to get into tip top shape. Rather than working out on his own in Orlando and skipping voluntary team workouts, which he normally does, Johnson was at most of, if not all of the team’s voluntary activities this offseason. Still only 27 in September, he should be his vintage self this season. That will help open things up for the passing game and also give whoever the quarterback is another dangerous weapon as a receiver out of the backfield.

Grade: A-

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Offensive Line

I’ve already mentioned their poor interior blocking last year. That should be slightly upgraded this season, but the two main culprits return. Titans’ running backs averaged 2.5 YPC and 2.4 YPC running behind the left guard and center respectively, while center Eugene Amano ranked 2^nd worst among centers on ProFootballFocus as a run blocker. Amano and left guard LeRoy Harris are back, while right guard Jake Scott, who actually played pretty well, is not, but they did bring in Steve Hutchinson from Minnesota to take his spot.

Hutchinson is heading into his age 35 season, but interior offensive linemen do age pretty well. He was ProFootballFocus’ 8^th rated guard last season with a 12.8 rating (though actually one spot below where Jake Scott was rated). He was solid as a run blocker and allowed just 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 9 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties.

While they struggled to run block, the Titans’ offensive line was actually very good in pass protection, which is more important because this is a passing league and the Titans have become a pass first team. They were ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd rated pass blocking offensive line and allowed just 24 sacks, tied for 2^nd fewest with New Orleans, remarkable given how much they pass.

Even Amano and Harris were good pass protectors. Harris allowed just 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures, while being penalized 5 times. He rated 12^th at his position as a pass protector on ProFootballFocus. Meanwhile, Amano graded out above average as a pass protector, allowing 4 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties.

It wasn’t enough for him to rank any better than 31^st overall out of 34 centers, though, so he’s still a weak link. The Titans have given opportunities to guys like Fernando Velasco, Kevin Matthews, and William Vlachos, but I doubt any of those guys would play well if they had to. Vlachos is a mere undrafted rookie, while the other two have little to no NFL experience. One good thing the Titans did is get rid of Ahmard Hall, their terrible full back. Out of 26 fullbacks on ProFootballFocus, he was 23rd. Replacement Quinn Johnson is inexperienced, but should be an upgrade and help Johnson pick up yards on the ground.

Outside on the offensive line, things are better. Michael Roos and David Stewart are among the top bookend tackles in the league and a big part of the reason why they were so good in pass protection. They ranked 13^th and 4^th respectively among offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus. Roos is very well rounded, performing well as a run blocker, as well as a pass protector. He allowed just 1 sack, 9 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback pressures, while committing 5 penalties.

Stewart, meanwhile, is much better in pass protection than as a run blocker. He was below average as a run blocker, but 3^rd at his position in pass protection. He allowed 4 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures, while committing just 2 penalties. This duo has been together for years and should have another strong season in 2012.

The Titans, overall, have a very strong offensive supporting cast. They have dynamic receivers, an elite running back who is back in shape, and while their offensive line struggles to open holes on the ground, they are one of the best in the league in pass protection, which is more important as they are now a pass heavy team in a pass first team. The biggest issue is quarterback, but there’s definitely upside there. They have the potential to exceed the 21^st ranked scoring offense they had in 2011, with 20.3 points per game, but inconsistencies at quarterback would stifle their offense.

Grade: B

Defense

As a conservative offense was the staple of a Jeff Fisher team, so was a strong defensive line and pass rush. That too was non-existent last year in their first year without Fisher as they managed just 28 sacks, 2^nd worst in the league behind Tampa Bay’s 23. In an effort to change that, they brought in Kamerion Wimbley from Oakland and a breakout season from 2010 16^th overall pick Derrick Morgan, who appears to finally be healthy, would help as well.

Still, in spite of a poor pass rush, the Titans actually ranked 4^th against the pass with 6.4 YPA allowed and were the league’s #8 scoring defense with 19.8 points per game allowed. However, #1 cornerback Cortland Finnegan left as a free agent and while they have solid depth at the position, they’ll need an improved pass rush if they hope to be as good defensively as they were last year. Another staple of a Jeff Fisher team, strong against the run, was not the case last year either as they ranked 24^th in the league with YPC allowed. They’re obviously hoping that changes next season.

Defensive Line

While they had a good defense last year, the defensive line was a real problem for the Titans. They’re the primary reason why they ranked 31^st in the league in sacks and 24^th in the league against the run. Jeff Fisher is rolling in his grave (if, you know, he were actually dead). To fix their pass rush, they brought in Kamerion Wimbley from Oakland and a breakout season from 2010 16^th overall pick Derrick Morgan, who appears to finally be healthy, would help as well.

Wimbley has had an interesting career. A 2006 1^st round pick, he had an amazing rookie year in Cleveland as a 3-4 rush linebacker with 11 sacks, but managed just 15.5 sacks over the next 3 seasons and was shipped to Oakland for a 3^rd round pick heading into his contract year. In Oakland, he played 4-3 outside linebacker, but was used in such a way that he was still allowed to primarily rush the passer. He was essentially a 4-3 rush linebacker, blitzing a lot, and lining up at defensive end on passing downs. He earned himself a giant contract last offseason, but for financial reasons, the Raiders had to cut him just 1 year into it and now he’s in Tennessee.

He had an amazing year last year. He was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker with a 24.4 rating and managed 6 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures on 478 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 13.0%. However, he’s never been an every down defensive lineman in his career and at 245 pounds, I have questions about how he’ll fit in that role, how he’ll stop the run and even how he’ll rush the passer in base packages where he’ll line up with less distance between him and the offensive lineman, as opposed to blitzing or rushing the passer as a 3-4 outside linebacker or being a 4-3 defensive end in sub packages.

Opposite him, the Titans will start Derrick Morgan. Morgan barely played as a rookie in 2010 and then struggled mightily last season with 3 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures on 378 pass rush snaps (7.4%), though he played the run pretty well. The main reason for his struggles is that he was still not 100% off of a torn ACL suffered in 2010. Heading into 2012, he’s shed the knee brace and could be due for a breakout year. If he struggles, however (still possible), the Titans could replace him after the season.

Furthermore, they have little to no depth behind the starters should either one struggle. Dave Ball returns after struggling mightily last season. On 404 pass rush snaps, he managed 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits and 17 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 5.9%. He’ll see fewer snaps this season, which is for the best. Overall, the Titans should get better pass rush production out of their defensive ends than they did in 2011, when the three guys rotating in their defensive end rotation, Morgan, Ball, and Jason Jones, all rated 56^th or worse among 4-3 defensive ends as pass rushers on ProFootballFocus, out of just 62 4-3 ends.

Things are better at defensive tackle. They also used a 3 man rotation there last year, with Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, and Sen’Derrick Marks. Casey was a strong run stuffer and a solid pass rusher who rated 12^th at his position on ProFootballFocus, while Klug led the team in sacks with 6, to go with 5 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 358 pass rush snaps (7.0%). The exciting thing for the Titans is that both were mere rookies last year, 3^rd and 5^th round picks respectively. Marks was the one weak link in that rotation. Out of 89 players, Marks ranked 81^st at his position. He could be pushed by 2012 3^rd round pick Mike Martin.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

As Jurrell Casey and Karl Klug were 3^rd and 5^th round picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Titans have two 2011 NFL draft picks starting at linebacker. If Jake Locker can ever break out as a legitimate starting quarterback, their 2011 NFL Draft class will be seen in hindsight as an incredibly strong one. 2^nd round pick Akeem Ayers and 4^th round pick Colin McCarthy will start at linebacker. Both graded out above average last year.

The 3^rd linebacker spot is a weakness. Will Witherspoon was pretty good against the run last year, but struggled in coverage. Heading into his age 32 season, he’s not getting any better. 2^nd round rookie Zach Brown could sub in for him on passing downs and eventually succeed Witherspoon as a starter. Owed 3.5 million in a contract year, there’s an outside chance that Witherspoon will be cut if Brown outplays him in Training Camp, but more likely, he’ll remain with the team and Brown will take over in 2013.

Grade: B

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Secondary

The Titans lost Cortland Finnegan in free agency, but they have enough depth at cornerback that his loss won’t be a huge deal. New #1 cornerback Jason McCourty, ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked cornerback in 2011, allowed 71 completions on 117 attempts (60.7%) for 802 yards (6.9 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 10 passes and only committing 2 penalties.

Opposite him, Alterraun Verner will be moving into the starting lineup. Verner played very well on the slot last year, but moving outside could potentially cause him to struggle. He was ProFootballFocus’ 14^th ranked cornerback last year (giving them 3 of ProFootballFocus’ top 14 cornerbacks last year). He allowed 37 completions on 66 attempts (56.1%) for 334 yards (5.1 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 7 passes and not committing a single penalty.

He’ll still play on the slot at times as he’ll move there in 3-cornerback sets. They have 3 cornerbacks competing to be the 3^rd cornerback. Whoever wins will line up outside in 3-cornerback sets. Jason Mouton, a 2009 3^rd round pick, is coming off of a torn Achilles, while Coty Sensabaugh is a rookie 4^th round pick.

The favorite, however, is currently Tommie Campbell. Campbell was a 7^th round pick last year, but could prove to be a steal. An incredibly athletic player, Campbell spent two years at Pittsburgh before getting kicked off the team for academic issues. He then spent 2 years as a janitor at the Pittsburgh Airport before enrolling at California University of Pennsylvania, a Division-II school. He caught the eye of the Titans at the Division-II All-Star game, where he ran an incredible 4.31 40 at 6-3 205. If he proves to be a valuable part of this team in 2012, their 2011 NFL Draft class will look even better than it already does.

While the Titans lost Cortland Finnegan, they did keep one of their free agent defensive backs, Michael Griffin. Griffin was franchise tagged and resigned for 35 million over 5 years with 15 million guaranteed. Michael Griffin was the 19th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, but he doesn’t always play like it. For example, in 2008 and 2011, he graded out above average on ProFootballFocus, ranking 13th among all safeties last year. However, in 2009 he was absolutely awful, getting torched in coverage, allowing 34 completions on 49 attempts (69.4%) for 741 yards (15.1 YPA!!!), 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, 5 deflections and one penalty, as he ranked 87th at the position out of 88 eligible. He was also pretty middle of the pack in 2010.

Next to him, Jordan Babineaux is pretty mediocre. He had a -7.4 rating on ProFootballFocus last year. He was resigned this offseason for 2 years, 5 million, but that was most likely out of desperation as they didn’t have an internal replacement, and there were little to no safeties available either in free agency or through the draft. 6th round pick Markelle Martin, who fell for injury reasons, could eventually succeed him.

The Titans have done a very good job of drafting defensively over the past few years. A whopping 7 of their 11 defensive starters were drafted in the 2009-2011 drafts (Derrick Morgan, Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, Colin McCarthy, Akeem Ayers, Alterraun Verner, and Jason McCourty). That doesn’t include Sen’Derrick Marks and Tommie Campbell, situational players who were drafted in one of those 3 drafts and Zach Brown, Mike Martin, and Coty Sensabaugh, rookies from the 2012 NFL Draft who could have impacts this year.

On top of that, they also have Kamerion Wimbley (free agency this offseason) and Michael Griffin (2007 1^st round pick), who are among their best defensive players. Finnegan may be gone, but they have enough defensive talent to make up for that and they should have an improved pass rush this season. They may not quite be as good as the 8^th ranked scoring defense they were last year, but they’ll still be a strong defense.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

Mike Munchak only has one year of Head Coaching experience and was a peculiar hiring last offseason as he was never a coordinator in the NFL, but he did a solid job in his first year, going 9-7 with a team that was 6-10 the previous year. He was also a finalist for the Penn State Head Coaching job, still a prestigious position, but was not hired because he would not leave the Titans before the season in the middle of a playoff race.

Grade: B

Overall

The Titans have a good supporting cast. They have a strong and young defense filled with guys that the team has drafted themselves. They add Kendall Wright and return Kenny Britt and turn their receiving corps from thin to explosive and they could get a breakout year from tight end Jared Cook. They should also get another strong year from Chris Johnson, even though he’s running behind an offensive line that doesn’t run block well. Speaking of their offensive line, while it doesn’t run block well, they pass block incredibly well, very important for a team that is now pass heavy and in a pass first league. If they can get good quarterback play, they can definitely make the playoffs.

The quarterback play is what’s a big question mark. Not only do we not know who is going to start, we don’t know how well they’ll play or if they’ll have to switch quarterbacks mid season. Jake Locker could break out as a franchise quarterback, but he could also show why everyone thought he was so raw coming out of Washington. Matt Hasselbeck could game manage this team to a solid year, or he could show his age, 37. He’s the safer option, but Locker is pretty boom or bust and a very unknown commodity. They could also switch quarterbacks mid season multiple times, which could stifle a talented supporting cast and disrupt team chemistry.

As I said earlier, I could see this team winning anywhere from 5 or 6 games to 10 or 11. For their projection, I’m essentially going to be conservative and pick in the middle. This also makes sense because it sounds like the Titans will be conservative and start Hasselbeck over Locker so long as he continues to produce and win games. I expect them to be in the playoff race until the end of the season, but to fall just short.

One thing working against them is their schedule. I already mentioned their tough early season schedule. Whoever starts at quarterback could struggle in their first 6-8 games or so and get benched and teams who bench their quarterback midseason rarely make the playoffs (Denver last year is an obvious exception).

They have a pretty easy division schedule with 4 games against Indianapolis and Jacksonville, but Indianapolis is improved. Meanwhile, Houston blew them out in the one game where Schaub played and almost beat them in the one game he didn’t. They could have a 3-3 divisional record. Outside of the division, they host New England, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago, and the Jets. New England and Pittsburgh will be very tough wins, even at home, while I expect Chicago to have a really good year and Detroit is no slouch either. The Jets are the weakest of the bunch, but they won’t roll over either. Expect 2-3 or so.

They also go to San Diego, Minnesota, Miami, Buffalo, and Green Bay. They luckily get San Diego early in the year, which is a break and Minnesota and Miami aren’t tough teams, but Buffalo will be a good team this year and that Green Bay game looks pretty unwinnable. Given that 7 or 8 games, right in the middle of my high/low projections, seems about right.

Update: For more on why I’m moving the Titans up, click here. For the short version, I feel the same way about the Titans and Jake Locker that I did about Matt Stafford and the Lions at this point last season.

Projection: 11-5 2^nd in AFC South

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