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New York Giants: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Giants, Uncategorized

Last week: 21 (-5)

Record: 0-5

Losing at home to the Eagles is pretty bad. They can’t block, run the football, or stop anyone (opponents are moving the chains against them 79% of the time). That being said, they have more talent than most 0-5 teams do. They are getting killed in turnovers. At -13 through 5 games, they are averaging -2.6 per game, a -42 pace, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Even if they are destined to become the worst turnover margin team in NFL history (I don’t think they will be), they’ll be significantly better in this aspect going forward. Things will get better in this aspect going forward. Eli Manning won’t continue throwing interceptions at a rate nearly twice his career rate (5.9% on the season, 3.3% on his career). They also won’t continue recovering just 28.6% of fumbles. They could be underrated going forward.

Week 5 Studs

LG Kevin Boothe

DT Cullen Jenkins

DT Johnathan Hankins

DT Mike Patterson

Week 5 Duds

RG David Diehl

LE Mathias Kiwanuka

SS Antrel Rolle

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Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Bills, Uncategorized

Last week: 27 (+0)

Record: 2-3

The Bills would be higher if I trusted Thad Lewis/Jeff Tuel at all going forward. The Bills have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL for the next 6-8 weeks as their choices are an undrafted rookie in Jeff Tuel (who went 8 of 20 for 80 yards and a pick six against Cleveland), a practice squad quarterback in Thad Lewis, or someone they sign off the streets like Pat White or David Carr. Fortunately, on the other side of the ball, Jairus Byrd and Stephon Gilmore, two talented defensive backs, return this week to a defense that has done a great job of stopping teams without much talent in their secondary. Opponents have moved the chains on just 70% of opportunities this season.

Week 5 Studs

ROLB Manny Lawson

DT Marcell Dareus

MLB Kiko Alonso

Week 5 Duds

QB Jeff Tuel

RT Erik Pears

CB Aaron Williams

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St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 2-3

Beating the Jaguars isn’t impressive. It ended an awful stretch for the Rams, in which they trailed Atlanta 21-0 early before injuries and garbage time, they lost 31-7 to the Cowboys, and they lost 35-11 to the 49ers. That being said, I don’t think any higher of them than I did before last week and now they go on a very tough stretch, starting with a trip to Houston this week. After that, they play Carolina, Seattle, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Chicago, and San Francisco.

Week 5 Studs

RT Joe Barksdale

RE Robert Quinn

DT Michael Brockers

Week 5 Duds

LOLB Alec Ogletree

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+1)

I circled 4 games I thought the Raiders could win before the season and so far they’ve both two of them (home games against the Titans and Eagles were the other two). That being said, the Raiders are definitely better than I thought they’d be. Credit goes to Dennis Allen and Reggie McKenzie for assembling a passable roster with 50 million dollars of dead money on their cap.

Week 5 Studs

RG Mike Brisiel

DT Vance Walker

Week 5 Duds

LE Jason Hunter

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-5

The Jaguars essentially waved the wave flag on this season and on Blaine Gabbert when they traded Eugene Monroe to the Ravens. Their goal this season was to evaluate Blaine Gabbert with a better offensive line, after drafting Luke Joeckel 2nd overall. However, trading Monroe just to get something for him before he became a free agent this off-season, gives up on that goal. It was the right move and it gave Luke Joeckel a chance to take the blindside spot he’s supposed to hold for the next 10 years, but he broke his ankle and is out for the season. The season is done. Blaine Gabbert is done.

Week 5 Studs

WR Cecil Shorts

Week 5 Duds

QB Blaine Gabbert

LT Cameron Bradfield

RG Uche Nwaneri

RE Jason Babin

LE Tyson Alualu

MLB Paul Posluszny

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Minnesota Vikings extend DE Brian Robison

stevenlourie Uncategorized, Vikings

It’s very interesting that the Vikings chose to lock up Brian Robison, but not Jared Allen, with the bookend defensive ends both set to hit free agency this off-season (along with talented #3 end Everson Griffen and starting defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Fred Evans). However, Robison has actually outplayed Allen since the start of the 2012 season, after Allen’s set the world on fire with a near record breaking season in 2011.

In 2012, Robison graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 14th ranked 4-3 defensive end and Allen ranked 25th. Both were essentially equally good as pass rushers, but Allen was only average against the run and led the position with 9 penalties committed. In 2013, Robison is 13th, while Allen is 21st. Allen actually has the higher pass rush grade, but his struggles against the run are hurting his grade. Allen is an all-time great, but since week 1 of the 2012 season, Robison might have been the better player and he was above average in 2011 as well, his first full season as a starter.

The Vikings are definitely taking a risk that Robison could continue playing well without Allen opposite him, but ProFootballFocus does a good job of taking what kind of blocking you’re facing into account. There’s also no guarantee they lose Allen by signing Robison now, but the chances that they let him hit the open market this off-season do increase with this move.

There’s also no guarantee that Robison continues to produce going forward as he heads into his age 31 season in 2014 and 28 million over 4 years with about 12 million of that guaranteed is a big chunk of change, especially for an under the radar player like Robison. However, Allen is actually a year older and would probably command a much bigger contract. Between the two, Robison is probably the better value. I don’t love the move, but I don’t hate it either and it’s certainly an interesting move.

Grade: B

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Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Packers, Ravens, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens have been one of the premier home teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, going 25-3 at home since 2010. They’re outscore opponents by about a point per game on the road in that time period and by about 11 points per game at home. As a result, they’ve only been underdogs at home a grand total of three times in that time frame, losing once at home to Peyton Manning and the Broncos last season and then winning once at home as dogs last year against the Giants, after they had previously lost 3 straight, and winning against the Texans earlier this season. Those two wins came by a total of 40 points. Given that, I don’t think the Packers deserve to be favored in Baltimore.

Maybe they did a week ago, but losing Clay Matthews really hurts, as he’ll miss at least a month after undergoing surgery to repair a broken thumb. Losing Matthews doesn’t just hurt because he’s one of the top defensive players in the NFL, but because of their suspect depth behind him. Nate Palmer and Andy Mulumba, 6th round and undrafted rookies respectively, are their top reserves at the position. That’s as big of a downgrade as you can possibly get and it comes it a premium position.

Given that, I think these teams are pretty evenly matched. The Packers are moving the chains on 80% of chances, while allowing their opponents to do so on 75% of chances. The Ravens, meanwhile, are moving the chains on 69% of chances, while allowing their opponents to do so on 65% of chances. We’re getting at least 5 or 6 points of line value here even before you take Baltimore’s home field advantage into account.

The Ravens are also in a very good spot in terms of trends. Since 1989, teams are 37-11 ATS as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional road favorites. The Ravens will go to Pittsburgh next week, while they will almost certainly be divisional road favorites. I really like the Ravens’ chances of protecting their home field and pulling the upset here.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: High

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