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Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

I can’t quit the Panthers. They’re clearly not going 12-4 like I thought they would at the start of the season. I can admit that because it’s clearly wrong and because I was right about pretty much everything else. But they’re not as bad as they’ve looked. They could easily be 3-1 right now. They are outscoring opponents on the season. They are moving the chains 76% of the time offensively and allowing opponents to do so 72% of the time defensively, the 7th best differential in the NFL. They are DVOA’s #10 ranked team, which is right around where they finished last season. The defensive front 7 has been every bit as good as I thought it would be, though their lack of offensive supporting cast around Cam Newton has been very noticeable and their coaching staff is a lame duck. As bad as they’ve looked, they are not equal to the Vikings, which is what this 2.5 line suggests.

The Vikings are one of the things I’ve definitely been right about. I had them winning 5 games at the start of the season (one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer every season) and they’ve started the season 1-3. Last year’s 10-6 record was largely the product of a non-human season from Adrian Peterson, a strong record in close games (5-0), and some of the best injury luck in the NFL. Now they are 0-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, Adrian Peterson is on pace for about 400 yards less than he rushed for last season, and they’ve had injuries to guys like Kevin Williams, Chris Cook, and Christian Ponder (though the latter hasn’t really hurt). They are moving the chains 71% of the time offensively and allowing opponents to do so 78% of the time, the 4th worst differential in the NFL.

All of the trends favor the Panthers as well. The Panthers struggled on the road last week in Arizona, but they should be more comfortable in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover in their 2nd straight road game and teams have gone 93-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008, a trend that covers about 65% of the time historically, no matter what year you use to cut off the sample size. Also, underdogs are 57-26 ATS off a loss as favorites before being favorites. The Panthers host the Rams next week and lost as favorites in Arizona last week. Finally, dogs are 76-45 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs. The Vikings go to the Giants next week. This would be my Pick of the Week this week if I hadn’t already lost twice with the Panthers as Pick of the Week, but I can’t help but love this play.

Carolina Panthers 20 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: High

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Jets, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2)

The bye week might have been exactly what the Steelers needed. They sit at 0-4, but they get as healthy as they can be during the bye, with veterans resting up and guys like Heath Miller and Le’Veon Bell getting extra time to get back to full strength. I still don’t think they’ll be as this bad all season. They’re getting destroyed in the turnover battle with a -11 turnover margin that is one of the worst in the NFL. However, that type of thing tends to even out in the long run.

They won’t suddenly be good at winning the turnover battle going forward, but they won’t continue on this pace. At -11 through 4 games, they are averaging -2.8 per game, a -45 pace, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Even if they are destined to become the worst turnover margin team in NFL history (I don’t think they will be), they’ll be significantly better in this aspect going forward. They won’t continue recovering just 18.2% of fumbles that hit the ground. Meanwhile, their talented defense, which has forced 22 punts to 74 takeaways, will eventually start taking the ball away, after not doing so once in their first 4 games.

The Jets aren’t good in takeaways either, at -9 on the season, but their turnover problems are more interception than fumble based. Geno Smith has 8 interceptions on 156 attempts and I don’t think it would be ridiculous if he continues throwing a bunch of interceptions. He’s a rookie quarterback who likes to force things downfield. When it works it’s great, when it doesn’t, well, not so much.

If he were to reduce his turnover rate, it would probably be at the expense of some of the things he’s doing well, like averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. They aren’t doing well recovering fumbles either, recovering 33.3%, and their talented defense (82 first downs allowed, 34 punts forced) will force more than 3 turnovers in their next 5 games, so their turnover margin should be better going forward. However, the Steelers are the ones more underrated because of their turnover margin in this matchup.

Speaking of the Jets, they’re in a bad spot after last week’s huge win. Since 2002, teams are 46-66 ATS off of a win as double digit underdogs, including 17-27 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer points. Going off of that, home favorites are 25-51 ATS since 2002 after winning by 3 or fewer points as road dogs. After a huge upset win in dramatic fashion last week, it’s understandable that they could be flat for a 0-4 team. They could also be caught looking forward to a huge divisional matchup with the Patriots next week. I really like the Steelers’ chances of pulling the upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 New York Jets 9 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Giants at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2)

Ordinarily, Chicago would be the easy choice in this situation. The home team also usually covers on Thursday Night Football, because, on a short week, you need all the time you can get to prepare and having to travel puts you at a disadvantage. The home team is especially advantaged when they are favored and in a non-divisional matchup.

It makes sense that a better team would be more prepared for a short week and the Bears are definitely the better team here. The fact that these are non-divisional opponents is relevant because that means they are relatively unfamiliar with each other. If they were divisional opponents, it would nullify Chicago’s advantage at home, but that’s not the case. Non-divisional home favorites are 29-12 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989, including 12-1 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more.

However, the Giants are playing with nothing to lose here and have more talent than most 0-5 teams do. They have been killed by takeaways, with a -13 turnover margin. At this pace, they will be -42 in turnovers this season, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Basically, the Giants can cut their turnover margin in half going forward (from -2.6 per game to -1.3 per game) and still approach being all-time bad in turnovers (that would put them at -27). Things will get better in this aspect going forward. Eli Manning won’t continue throwing interceptions at a rate nearly twice his career rate (5.9% on the season, 3.3% on his career). They also won’t continue recovering just 28.6% of fumbles.

The Giants have also historically been a better road team than home team, going 50-32 ATS on the road since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are especially good as road dogs, going 32-19 ATS in that situation in the aforementioned time frame. This team has always thrived when overlooked and when nobody believes in them and I think that’s definitely the case this week. They’re especially good as road dogs early in the season, going 17-8 ATS as road dogs before week 10 since 2004. They are generally a better first half of the second team than second half of the season team (53-24 first 8 games, 30-42 second 8 games since 2004). Clearly that’s not the case this season, but it’s still worth noting.

The Giants also have a strong trend in their favor. Since 2008, teams are 57-26 as underdogs off of a loss as favorites before being favorites. The Giants lost to home to the Eagles as favorites last week and will host the lowly Vikings. Still, I can’t take the Giants here. I’ve been burned plenty of times with them this season and things are going to be worse on a short week on the road against a superior team. Turnovers aren’t the only problem with this team. They can’t block, run the football, or stop anyone (opponents are moving the chains against them 79% of the time). They’ll get better as the season goes on, but I like the Bears here. It’s not a strong play though.

Chicago Bears 27 New York Giants 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -8

Confidence: Low

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2013 Week 6 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football, 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB Zac Stacy (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.6%

5th round rookie Zac Stacy was the lead back for the Rams this week, after they benched Daryl Richardson mid-week following a pathetic showing against the 49ers week 4. He carried the ball 14 times for 78 yards. He won’t always get to face the Jaguars’ putrid defense, but he showed enough that he should continue to be the lead back going forward, as Richardson had just 48 yards on 13 carries. He needs to be picked up in all formats.

RB Willis McGahee (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 22.2%

Willis McGahee isn’t very good anymore, but he’s the Browns only option and he ran for 72 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries against the Bills. That’s a pretty bad average, but he should continue being the lead back going forward and any running back who gets at least 15-20 touches per game is automatically worth a flex look, especially as we get deeper in the bye week section of the season.

RB Andre Ellington (Arizona)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.0%

Andre Ellington didn’t lead the Cardinals in carries, but he led them in rushing yards, with 52 yards on just 7 carries. Lead back Rashard Mendenhall rushed for just 43 yards on 17 carries, so Ellington who has 120 yards on 18 carries this season, should push for more carries going forward. He’s also a big part of the passing game, catching 13 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown this season in limited action. He’s definitely worth a bench stash.

RB Marcel Reece (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.7%

Darren McFadden is supposed to be out for another week and Rashad Jennings left last week’s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable going forward. Marcel Reece should be the feature back if both don’t play this week. He has a huge impact in the passing game, in addition to running the football.

RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

Percent owned (ESPN): 15.6%

Thomas led the Saints in carries this week, rushing for 36 yards on 19 carries. He’d be higher on this list if I didn’t recommend Khiry Robinson last week, only to watch him rush for 9 yards on 3 carries this week. Thomas had just 1 rushing yard on 4 carries the week before so he’s risky, but Mark Ingram is no longer part of the plan in New Orleans and Thomas contributes in the passing game even when he’s not getting carries, with 28 catches for 166 yards on the season. He’s probably the New Orleans back to own.

RB LeGarrette Blount (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 16.8%

With Stevan Ridley out this week, LeGarrette Blount rushed for 51 yards on 12 carries. He was also getting action with Ridley in the lineup and now he has 180 rushing yards and a touchdown on 35 carries in his last 3 weeks. I’m concerned that he fumbled, but he’s worth rostering in case Ridley’s injury turns out to be a multi-week deal.

WR Keenan Allen (San Diego)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.2%

It’s tough to count on rookies, but Philip Rivers is playing well right now and someone has to catch his passes. With Malcom Floyd out, that someone has been Keenan Allen, who has caught 11 passes for 195 yards and 1 touchdown over the past 2 games. He’s worth a flier.

RB Brandon Jacobs (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.4%

Brandon Jacobs is not good at all, but David Wilson hurt his neck against the Eagles and isn’t expected to be able to go on a short week against the Bears this week. The Giants have brought back Da’Rel Scott to play passing downs, but Jacobs will be the lead runner this week against a Chicago defense that isn’t as good as it was under Lovie Smith. There are worse desperation plays.

TE Garrett Graham (Houston)

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.4%

Owen Daniels is not expected to play against the Rams’ putrid defense this week. Garrett Graham would get the start. He’s been decently productive as the #2 tight end, catching 15 passes for 141 yards and 3 touchdowns in 5 games this season. He could be a nice plug and play option for guys with tight ends on bye or Owen Daniels owners.

RB Brandon Bolden (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.6%

Brandon Bolden also got more action with Ridley out, rushing for 24 yards on 5 carries and catching 6 passes for 40 yards. He’s just 2 weeks removed from a 100 yards from scrimmage performance. He’s worth rostering in deep leagues because Ridley is hurt right now and Blount fumbled.

WR Terrance Williams (Dallas)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.3%

Terrance Williams had 151 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys. Tony Romo won’t throw for 500+ yards and 5 touchdowns every week and Williams’ targets are going to be inconsistent. He was actually only targeted 4 times in this game and Miles Austin could be back any week. Most likely, this was just a Kevin Ogletree type performance. He’s worth snatching up in really deep leagues though.

TE Sean McGrath (Kansas City)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

Alex Smith loves intermediate targets, including tight end and Sean McGrath is all he has right now. He’s impressed as an injury fill-in, catching 9 passes for 118 yards and a touchdown in his last 2 games. In deep leagues, you could do worse as a bye week filler at tight end.

WR Harry Douglas (Atlanta)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.1%

Julio Jones is done for the season. Matt Ryan is still going to throw for plenty of yardage and Harry Douglas, who has had some nice performances as the #3 receiver this year (4/93/0, 5/68/0), will be the #2 wide receiver now. He’ll be Matt Ryan’s 3rd option after Tony Gonzalez and a hobbled Roddy White. He could be fantasy relevant based on pure volume.

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-3)

When I did my top-200 players back in August, the Chargers were the only team in the NFL that only had 1 player on the list (safety Eric Weddle). Even the Jaguars (Eugene Monroe, Maurice Jones-Drew, Cecil Shorts) and the Raiders (Jared Veldheer, Lamarr Houston) had more than one. They didn’t have a single player on the offensive side of the ball. The job Head Coach Mike McCoy has done with the offense in his first season with the team is amazing.

Despite a largely replacement level supporting cast around a declining Philip Rivers, McCoy has the Chargers moving the ball at an incredible rate, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities, only behind Denver and Indianapolis. The resurgence of Philip Rivers has a ton to do with it. Rivers looks like his pre-2011 self, completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him.

The problem is the defensive side of the ball, which has almost as little talent. They are allowing opponents to move the chains 84% of the time. Only Philadelphia is worse. The Raiders get Terrelle Pryor back this week from injury. He certainly has flaws, but he’s a dynamic playmaker capable of taking advantage of a poor defense. He’s already one of the Raiders’ top-5 players and he’ll be a significant upgrade over Matt Flynn, who didn’t even look like he belonged in the league last week, leading the Raiders’ offense to one scoring drive against one of the worst defenses in the NFL all game.

For that reason, the Raiders certainly have a chance to cover, but the Raiders’ defense isn’t very good either. I could see the Chargers throwing up 30+ in this game and forcing the Raiders’ out of their offensive game plan, forcing Pryor to become a passer more than a runner, and winning fairly convincingly. I could really go either way on this game and the fact that it got moved to 11:55 PM Eastern Time doesn’t make things easier. I’m taking the Chargers, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -4.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Packers are 1-2, but this isn’t representative of the type of team they are. They started last year 2-3 and finished 11-5. They’ll be a very good 10-12 win team again this season. The Lions, however, are also very good. I had a 10 win projection for them at the start of the season and that seems very reasonable for them right now. Given that, I want to take Detroit because I think this line is a little high, but there are reasons for taking Green Bay as well.

I think this game means a lot more to the Packers. The Lions will obviously want to get the upset in Green Bay, a place where they haven’t had much success for a really long time. They also are coming off of a bye and are starting to get guys back from injury, including Eddie Lacy. We could easily see a game by the Packers that re-establishes themselves as one of the elite teams in the NFL against a quality Detroit team. I’m not confident either way, but the Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Titans, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-1)

Kansas City is 4-0 right now. However, their opponents have a combined record of 3-13. They’ve faced 3/4s of arguably the worst division in football, the NFC East, along with a Jacksonville team that’s worse than any team since the 2008 Lions and even that’s a debate. They luck out here though. While Tennessee is 3-1, they are without quarterback Jake Locker for the foreseeable future with a hip injury. Locker wasn’t the reason they were winning. You can credit a tough defense for that.

However, Locker hasn’t thrown an interception in 111 attempts, a huge part of the reason why the Titans have yet to commit a turnover this season. He was probably not going to continue that if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but the drop off from Locker to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown an interception on 3.6% of his career attempts, will be noticeable in this aspect. Between that and the fact that the Titans won’t recover every single one of their fumbles all season (3 of 3), they definitely won’t be able to count on winning the turnover battle every game going forward.

The Chiefs won’t be able to either. They are +9 in turnovers this season, but this type of thing is really inconsistent. The Chiefs and Giants came into last week’s game +9 and -9 in turnovers respectively and were even in turnovers in that gain. However, I think the Chiefs are more talented than the Titans in almost every aspect. It’ll be a tight game between two defensive lead teams, which is why I’m not confident in the Chiefs as favorites of a field goal on the road, but they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New York Giants (0-4)

The Giants have been outscored 69-7 in their last 2 games. That actually is a good thing for their chances this week. Teams are 36-18 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more. That makes sense. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. The Giants are definitely embarrassed at this point and they are probably undervalued, as mere 1 point favorites here against a poor Philadelphia team. However, they might not be overlooked by the Eagles in a huge divisional matchup. Dallas plays Denver this week and Washington is on a bye so the winner of this game will probably be, at most, a game back of the divisional lead.

Philadelphia also has a powerful trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. However, it’s not like they’re big dogs here (1 point) so I don’t know if it’s that powerful. Ultimately, these two trends might not have a ton of effect on the game.

That being said, the Giants should be the right side. I think this line is too low. The Giants are a better team than the Eagles, in my opinion. They’ve been destroyed by turnovers this year, with a -9 turnover margin, 3rd worst in the NFL. However, that type of thing tends to be inconsistent. Eli Manning has a career 3.3% interception rate. He won’t throw an interception on 6.0% of his attempts for the rest of the season. The Giants also won’t continue recovering 30.8% of fumbles on the ground all season.

The Giants’ offensive struggles go beyond turnovers this season, but they should be able to move the ball here because the Eagles have the type of defense that you can do whatever you want with. They’ve allowed 112 first downs and forced 11 punts all season. They’re allowing opponents to move the chains on 85% of opportunities. The Giants’ defense isn’t great either, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities, but I like the Giants in a must win game more than the Eagles and I think they’re the better team.

New York Giants 31 Philadelphia Eagles 27

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)

The Ravens have been a completely different team this year at home as compared to on the road. At home, they’ve beaten both Cleveland and Houston, but on the road, they were blown out in Denver and lost in Buffalo. This is nothing new. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 point per game.

They’re on the road here again, but they have a better chance of covering and winning here for several reasons. First, they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are more used to being on the road. Even the Ravens, as much as they’ve struggled on the road, are 6-3 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2010. On top of that, teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in that situation as well, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

The Ravens also essentially get two players added to their team. Eugene Monroe comes in from Jacksonville. He probably doesn’t have the playbook fully down yet, but he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and an upgrade on an aging Bryant McKinnie. Ray Rice also should be much closer to 100% this week. He only got 5 carries last week in a loss to Buffalo because of his injury situation and the Ravens weren’t able to establish the run at all. He also didn’t catch a pass. They don’t have enough weapons to get away with not involving Rice in the passing game. He should have a bigger impact this week. I don’t like taking the Ravens on the road, but they should be the right side.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: Low

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