3-4 Defensive End/Defensive Tackle

Penn State

6-2 236

40 time: 4.72

Draft board overall prospect rank: #46

Draft board middle linebacker rank: #3

Overall rating: 78* 

            3/28/10: Sean Lee has first round talent, but he won’t go there because of his position and his nasty history of injuries. In addition to the fact that linebackers always seem to fall on draft day, Lee had a nasty ACL tear last year, in addition to other less major injuries that have kept him from his potential in the past. Injuries didn’t stop him from putting up 138 tackles in 2007, to go with 3 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 1 interception and they didn’t stop him from putting up 86 tackles, 2 sacks and a pick this year, though unfortunately he did have to miss three games with an injury. They did cost him all of 2008 though. Lee is the classic Big 10 linebacker and should probably get drafted earlier that he will. He reminds me a lot of James Laurinaitis, who I had a first round grade on last year, though Laurinaitis never has a history of injuries. He’s a very fundamental player who makes good routes to the ball, wraps up well, and hits very hard. He has good lateral mobility, but he’s not a true 4-3 outside linebacker guy with that necessary sideline-to-sideline range, and he’s not quite the thumper that is needed in the middle of a 3-4. He’s solid in coverage as well. He has looked healthy for most of last season and through the Pre-Draft process, but there are huge question as to whether or not that will be the case in the NFL. Even so, with his 1^st round talent, I’d call him a 2^nd round pick, that kind of unspectacular linebacker that holds down the fort doing everything you need him to for 10 year, though he’ll probably go in the 3^rd or 4^th.

NFL Comparison: James Laurinaitis

*For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Spotlight #1: South Carolina DE Devin Taylor

Spotlight #2: Arkansas S Tramain Thomas 

1^st quarter

13:54: Taylor double teamed and knocked down. Pancaked.

13:43: Taylor run at, little gain in a pile.

13:10: Taylor blows past his man, Wilson steps up in the pocket and does a nice job of still completing it.

12:37: Taylor been on the left side all game, double teamed and blocked here for a long time, eventually able to get free with a good spin, but nothing comes of it.

8:12: Taylor beats his man with a spin, Wilson under pressure by multiple guys goes the other way, Taylor does a good job of chasing him across the field. Nothing comes of it, but good motor.

5:43: Thomas with an open field tackle after a short catch by the back.

3:41: Thomas is one of 4 of 5 Arkansas players that combine to take down Alshon Jeffery in the open field. Powerful run after the catch.

2:20: Dennis Johnson with a kick return touchdown. Just a junior, but an awesome return man and a good back in place of the injured Knile Davis.

0:40: Jake Bequette almost has a sack. He’s been dominant here in the 1^st quarter.

2^nd quarter

13:36: Taylor gets some pressure.

13:12: Taylor gets into the backfield, gets some pressure, stays with it, in position when a teammate hits the quarterback and Wilson forces it out, right into the hands of Taylor, who shows great hands and instincts as well as athleticism to return it for 6.

12:52: Jarius Wright, opposite Stephon Gilmore, gets a long quick strike touchdown, 68 yards. First play of 40+ allowed all season by South Carolina.

10:50: Bequette with a good spin move to force the quarterback to flush to pocket for a small gain on the ground.

9:00: Shaw is doing a really poor job of getting the ball to Jeffery once again, doesn’t see him open and tries forcing it into double coverage instead. Jeffery also playing hurt.

5:50: Melvin Ingram with good hustle play to chase the scrambling quarterback down from behind, short of the sticks on 3^rd down.

4:11: Jarius Wright with his 2^nd touchdown of the game, both out of the slot.

3:26: Bequette continues his dominant night, this time actually gets to the quarterback for a sack.

0:42: Devin Taylor uses his long arms well with a spin move. He does play tall.

0:08: Arkansas almost had another touchdown in the slot, not Wright this time, dropped.

 

3^rd quarter

14:09: Thomas one of two covering Alshon Jeffery, good double coverage, not the best throw, incomplete.

13:50: Jeffery doesn’t have a ton of production, but still making an impact. Here he is double teamed, allowing the back to be open underneath on 3^rd and long and then an awesome job blocking to help propel the back to the first.

12:39: Thomas in on a tackle on a run up the middle for a gain of 6 or so.

11:20: Bequette gets more pressure, continuing his dominant night, unfortunately, he accidentally roughs the passer. 15 yards. Bad hit, helmet to helmet and late. Gotta clean that up.

10:57: Thomas one of two on Jeffery in the end zone. Jeffery can’t win the jump ball because he slipped. It’s been another mixed bag for him.

10:37: Gilmore allows a 6 yard catch.

9:40: Joe Adams with a big catch, not matched up with Stephon Gilmore.

8:39: Wright drops a slight inaccurate ball near the goal line with Gilmore draped all over him.

8:34: Gilmore almost gets an end zone pick, jumped the slant, couldn’t quite complete the play, not covering Wright or Adams.

8:01: Gilmore thrown on again, allows short catch, makes a nice tackle, forces field goal. Nice series by him in the end zone.

7:42: Tramain Thomas with good instincts on an end around to blow up a well executed play for a gain of just 3, huge hit on the play as well, big, clean hit.

5:51: Thomas gets in on a tackle after a decent sized run. Good job to fight for the ball after the ball, but ruled down.

5:08: Jerry Franklin gets a fumble recovery here on a botched handoff.

3:55: Taylor using those long arms and 6-7 frame to deflect the ball, good instincts.

3:47: Taylor with a tackle for loss or no gain in the backfield, power back does push him a bit after initial contact, but it was still a solo tackle for loss and a nice play.

2:23: Devin Taylor doesn’t bite on a play fake, doesn’t get juked out by the quarterback and completes the sack.

2:07: Arkansas receivers have had drop problems all night, including two would be touchdowns. Wright drops his 1^st here.

1:45: Gilmore allows a short catch to Greg Childs, but stops him short of the first on 3^rd down, forces field goal.

1:04: Thomas allows a 6 yard catch to Jeffery over the middle, one on one.

4^th quarter

14:16: South Carolina receiver drops a pass over the middle with Thomas closing on him.

13:06: South Carolina takes a shot deep, incomplete, biggest play of the night has been 12 yards.

11:51: Thomas off balanced and run over in the open field for South Carolina’s biggest play of the game, 23 yards by the back. Back was open because of Jeffery drawing yet another double deep.

11:09: Thomas with a good nose for the ball and good form on a quarterback run for 7 that could have been longer. Redeemed himself.

10:40: Thomas just barely whiffs in the open field after disengaging from a block. Would have been a tough play.

7:54: Ball forced to Jeffery, linebacker undercuts the route for a pick, Thomas in coverage tight with Jeffery once again as well.

6:25: Taylor bites on play action, tries to tackle back in the backfield.

6:22: Taylor run at in the red zone on 4^th and short, gets penetration and a tackle for loss. Clutch play.

5:42: Jeffery has a big catch deep, 23 yards, wiped out by holding.

5:17: Bequette with a sack and a forced fumble. This is the dagger. Quarterback hurt too, pure speed rush, but then powerful hit.

0:00: Probably the highest draft pick in this game was South Carolina wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery looked like a top 5 pick coming into the season after a sophomore year in which he caught 88 passes for 1517 yards and 9 touchdowns. However, the 6-4 Jeffery has really regressed this season, at least statistically, to the point where some are even wondering if he deserves to be a top 15 pick. On the season, Jeffery has 45 catches for 614 yards and 7 touchdowns, though you can blame a lot of that on poor quarterback play.

Jeffery had yet another statistically unimpressive game in this one with 3 catches for 19 yards, though he did have a 23 yard catch wiped out by a penalty. He was double teamed all night and the safety helping double him was no slouch himself, Arkansas safety Tramain Thomas a potential day 2 pick whose stock is rising in my book at this point. Jeffery’s constant doubles helped open things up for other guys short, but they didn’t help his numbers. Jeffery needs to do a better job of getting open against double teams and fighting for the ball in jump ball situations in tight coverage. On one play in the end zone, he was well covered yes, but elite receiver makes that catch. Jeffery didn’t even give a very good effort. He also seems to lack elite speed downfield and there are rumors he’s out of shape.

Of course, South Carolina’s quarterback play isn’t helping him. South Carolina only has 180 completions for 2129 yards and 17 touchdowns on the season, and Jeffery does have a good chunk of that. In this one, they were 16 of 25 for 128 yards and 1 pick, but those numbers don’t say everything. Jeffery was not targeted open on several occasions and Shaw refused to take shots downfield. South Carolina only had 2 plays of 20+ yards on the game (not counting Jeffery’s 23 yard completion wiped out by penalty), and Jeffery was involved on one of them, tying up coverage deep. He was also involved on another sizeable gain tying up coverage deep on a check down and then doing a great job blocking. The 6-4 230 Jeffery is an excellent blocker.

Overall, it was another mixed bag for Jeffery. He should have had better numbers, but he needs to do a better job getting open against double teams and fighting for the ball when targeted against tight coverage. Tramain Thomas was run over on South Carolina’s biggest play of the game, a 23 yard check down to the back, but overall had a great game with 11 tackles. On the season, the 6-1 205 Thomas has 87 tackles, 2.5 for loss, 5 picks, and 6 deflections. He’s having a great season and had yet another great game here, especially in coverage on Jeffery. He’s also part of the reason why South Carolina didn’t complete a play longer than 23. A safety’s job is to prevent deep plays and South Carolina had almost none of them in this one, though part of that is for lack of trying. Thomas looks like a late day 2 pick in my book.

Thomas isn’t Arkansas’ only pro prospect on defense. Jerry Franklin didn’t have the best game and didn’t show up a lot, but he had a fumble recovery and generally should remain as a mid round pick. Defensive end Jake Bequette had 2 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble and easily could have had 4 sacks. He was matched up with a red shirt freshman right tackle, so not the toughest matchup, but South Carolina had to bench their right tackle midgame and switch to another player, who didn’t have any better luck.

The 6-5 270 pound Bequette looks like a left end at the next level with equal ability against the run and the pass. Despite injuries, Bequette has 25 tackles, 8.5 for loss, and 8 sacks on the season. He plays with a great motor, but has a tendency to overpursue and be too aggressive, as was seen on a play action bite and a personal foul penalty for roughing the passer.

Arkansas also had plenty of talent on offense with 3 great receivers in Jarius Wright, Joe Adams, and Greg Childs and Tyler Wilson throwing to them, though Wilson, the 1^st year starter, redshirt junior is likely not going to be a draft prospect until 2013. Wilson had a good game against a good South Carolina defense, going 20 of 37 for 299 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick, in spite of a bunch of drops by his receivers, including a couple of would be touchdowns. Of the big 3 at receiver, only Wright was responsible for a drop, though he did uncharacteristic drop a touchdown and had another tough ball go off his hands near the end zone. He needs to catch that.

Wright definitely made up for it with 4 catches for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns, lining up primarily in the slot. The slot seems like where he’s destined to play in the NFL and the normally sure handed 5-10 180 pound receiver looks like a mid round pick after 63 catches for 1029 yards and 11 touchdowns. Joe Adams, meanwhile, had 4 catches for 63 yards, while Greg Childs had just one 11 catch against prevent defense on 3^rd and long, to force a field goal. He’s obviously not all the way back from injury yet.

South Carolina cornerback Stephon Gilmore is a potential first round pick and despite all the numbers Arkansas had passing in this one, Gilmore was rarely responsible for the catches. Wright burned them in the slot, especially on one 68 yard reception for a touchdown that was the first play longer than 40 yards South Carolina had allowed on the season. Wright was matched up with Antonio Allen’s replacement. Allen, a mid rounder at safety, could see a stock increase by not playing with an injury because South Carolina’s defense was significantly more susceptible to the deep pass without him out there. South Carolina is lucky Arkansas’ receivers had trouble with drops.

But back to Gilmore, he held Wright in check when Wright was split out wide against him. He also held Adams and Childs in check. Gilmore allowed 3 catches in the game, for very little damage, including two short of the sticks on 3^rd down, forcing field goals, and a 6 yarder to Joe Adams. He had one great sequence in which he was targeted 3 times in a row on the goal line and forced a drop (though Wright probably should have caught it), a near pick, and a reception short. Other than that, Arkansas stayed away from him and had most of their production away from him. The 6-1 195 junior Gilmore is a great athlete and a 3 year starter who is having another fantastic year after being an All-American 3^rd teamer in 2010. In 2011, he has 41 tackles, 2 for loss, 1 sack, 3 picks, and 7 deflections. He’s a fringe 1^st rounder.

Finally, South Carolina has two great draft eligible defensive end (and an awesome true freshman, but we’ll save him for a couple of years). Melvin Ingram has been the most productive this season splitting time between tackle and end with 44 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 2 picks, and 2 deflections, but he was the quieter of the two ends in this one, though he had one great hustle play to chase down the quarterback from behind on a scramble short of the sticks on 3^rd down.

Taylor was the spotlight and he really stood out. He had a sack, a pick, and a deflection and generally wreaked havoc. Arkansas didn’t have an answer for him out there. He even had some success against double teams. The 6-7 260 pound end is a great athlete with long arms and he knows how to use them. He hasn’t had the best season with 37 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 5 sacks, 1 pick, and 2 deflections and he does play a bit high, but he had an awesome great here and definitely flashes. Given that and his athleticism and measurables, he could still go in the 2^nd round if he declares, though he’s probably best serving returning as a senior and trying to get into the first with a good season.

 

 

Steve Johnson isn’t an elite receiver. He can do some boneheaded things and always seems to drop the ball at the worst possible time, so 36.25 million over 5 years with 19.5 million guaranteed seems a little rich. However, he shows great chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick, to the tune of back to back 1000 yard seasons and he was worth more to them than anyone else. Besides, it’s not like Buffalo is a hot destination for free agents so when they get a player who is above average, they almost have to resign him, even if they have to overpay slightly.

Grade: B

 

 

11. 3-4 DE JJ Watt B

Again, I would have gone Amukamara and if I were to go with a 3-4 end, I had Cameron Jordan rated higher on my board. However, I don’t mind this pick. Watt fills a need opposite Mario Williams and is one of the best available.

42. RLB Brooks Reed A

Rush linebacker was, believe it or not, a bigger need for them than cornerback. Their only real rush linebacker was Connor Barwin, a 2009 2^nd round pick who missed all of the 2010 season with an injury. Brooks Reed fits the range well and fills a giant need.

60. CB Brandon Harris A

This could be the steal of the first two rounds. Harris may be short and lack ball skills, but everyone said the same thing about Devin McCourty and a year later McCourty is a Pro Bowler as a rookie. Harris is going to be a great cornerback at the next level. He was a shutdown cornerback all last year until one bad game against Michael Floyd and Notre Dame in their bowl game. He is going to have some trouble with bigger receivers like Floyd was at the next level, but at the same time he held first round pick Jonathan Baldwin to 3 catches for 21 yards and he’s 6-4. Harris lacks athleticism and ball skills, but he makes up for that with hustle and instincts.

127. CB Rashard Carmichael A

Two cornerbacks were needed and Carmichael is a great value in the late 4^th. They may have needed something like a safety or a nose tackle before a 2^nd cornerback, but there’s no denying Carmichael’s value in the late 4^th. I had a 2^nd round grade on him.

144. S Shiloh Keo A-

Keo fits the range decently and fills a huge need at safety. He may lack athleticism and that may limit him from being a starter at safety, but there’s no denying his hustle and heart. He’ll be a great special teamer, worst case scenario.

152. QB TJ Yates B-

Backup quarterback wasn’t a huge need, but they don’t really have a solid backup and Matt Schaub has had injury problems in the past so this makes some sense. It was a little bit of a reach though, but I do like Yates as a backup long term.

214. OT Derek Newton B

They don’t really have a swing tackle behind their starters and Newton is a good value in the 7^th round. A nose tackle and maybe another safety or wide receiver were needed above a backup swing tackle, but no major argument from me here given his value.

254. RLB Cheta Ozougwu A-

They need to get two rush linebackers in this draft given how thin they were at the position. There were better rush linebackers available, but it’s not a huge reach.

Overall:

This was one of my favorite drafts. Their first 4 picks all filled needs and only Watt, in my mind, was even a minor reach. I also like the selection of Keo in the 5^th round and overall I didn’t hate any of their picks. All of them made sense. I think next year is the year that Houston finally breaks out and makes the playoffs. There’s no questions about their offense, with Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson. Their defense has always been the problem. In this draft, they spent their first 5 picks on defense and all 5 of them fit the range and made sense. They’ve also added defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, a member of the THCEC club (Terrible Head Coach Excellent Coordinator, including Mike Nolan and Josh McDaniels, among others). I think their defense will be a lot better next year and I think they’re a potential Super Bowl team next year.

Grade: A

 

 

 

This is an extension onto Herremans’ existing 2 year deal, so over 2014-2016 Herrmans will be signed for 3 years, 21 million, with 11 million guaranteed. This is a bit of a head scratcher. A new deal with Herrmans didn’t seem urgent and while Herremans was solid at right tackle for them last year (4 sacks, 37 pressures, 9 penalties), that was his first year at the position after moving over from guard. Why not make him prove it for another year or even let him hit the open market in 2014?

Even with two more years of solid play at the position, Herremans probably wouldn’t command 7 million per year on the open market in 2014 as a soon to be 32 year old. Hell, Eric Winston, a superior player who is only 28, was just cut rather than being paid 6.5 million by the Texans. Winston was ranked 11^th overall at the offensive tackle position last year by ProFootballFocus. Herremans was 26^th.

Grade: C

 

 

All values are as of 4/3/12. The following are players I think are underrated values in PlayTheDraft. You can sign up to play for free (normally 30 dollars) to compete against yours truly, Mel Kiper, and others for a chance to meet Mel Kiper himself. http://game.playthedraft.com/fbdraft/setup/affiliate_league_accept.asp?affiliateID=7

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

Tannehill’s price is at 2242, which puts him between the 10^th and 11^th pick. As long as he goes in the top 10, you’re making money with him. I think his floor is 8 to Miami (2500) and his ceiling is 4 to Cleveland (3150) or even 3 if a team goes crazy and trades up (3250). There’s definitely huge upside here with minimal downside.

QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State)

Weeden’s price is 876, which puts him between the 42^nd and 43^rd picks. I think he’ll end up going in the 1^st round one way or another. Either Cleveland passes on Ryan Tannehill and takes him at 22 (1625) or Cleveland takes Tannehill, Miami misses out and panic trades back up into the end of the first round for him. If he goes in the first, you’ll get at least 1375 from him, a gain of almost 500. Worst case scenario, Cleveland at 37 (965), Seattle at 43 (875), and Kansas City at 44 (860) will take him. Minimal downside with big upside here.

WR Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech)

As long as Hill goes in the first round, you’re making money with him. The 32^nd pick has a value of 1375 and Hill is going for 1286. Possible destinations include 19 to Chicago (1700), 22 to Cleveland (1625), 25 to Denver (1550), 26 to Houston (1525), and I think that’s his floor, but Baltimore at 29 (1450) or San Francisco at 30 (1425) would snatch him up. You’ll make money with him.

WR Chris Givens (Wake Forest)

Givens is one of those guys who you’ll make money on as long as he gets drafted in the first 3 rounds. He’s going for 548 and the value of the 95^th pick is 552. Givens is an underrated prospect who should go in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.

WR Marvin Jones (California)

You can basically copy and paste what I said for Givens and put it here. Although Jones is slightly cheaper at 547.

WR Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma)

If Broyles is healthy at his Pro Day on April 12^th, he’ll shoot back into the first 3 rounds, his value will jump and you’ll make money one way or another. He’s only valued at 494 now and if he is still hurt at his Pro Day, you can dump him with ease.

TE Coby Fleener (Stanford)

Another one of those guys who you’ll make money on as long as he gets drafted in the first round. He’s valued at 1118 and 26 to Houston (1525) is a definitely possibility, as is San Francisco at 30 (1425) and New York at 32 (1375). Worst case, he goes to Indianapolis and reunites with Andrew Luck at 34 (1020) for a minor loss, but I have a good feeling he’ll go in the first round.

C Peter Konz (Wisconsin)

Konz will also make you money if he goes in the first round. He’s valued at 1314 and I doubt New York passes on him at 32 (1375) so this is a pretty safe one. His upside is 19 to Chicago (1700).

OT Bobby Massie (Mississippi)

This is a thin tackle class, but it’s such an important position that teams will reach for players at the position. Massie is probably going to be the 5^th tackle off the board. He’s ranked 6^th, which is already a good value, but his price is pretty cheap at 681, which puts him at the 59^th pick. I can’t see Detroit at 54 (740) passing on him and he’s got the upside to go in the top of the 2^nd round to someone like Cleveland at 37 (965), Jacksonville at 38 (950), or St. Louis at 39 (935).

OT Mitchell Schwartz (California)

Another undervalued tackle, Schwartz will make you money if he goes in the top 84 picks. He’ll probably be off the board in the top half of the 3^rd round or higher.

OT Jeff Allen (Illinois)

Same thing as above only Allen comes cheaper, 510 as compared to 573, and he’s got more upside. In some circles, he’s viewed as a 2^nd round pick.

G Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State)

An underrated small school kid, Tony Pauline thinks he has a shot in go in the top 45 picks (845), while Mike Mayock calls him a 2^nd round pick (630). Meanwhile, Russ Lande has him as a potential first round pick (1375). As long as he’s drafted in the first 2 rounds, as he has a value of 642, Silatolu will make you money and there’s obviously big upside with him. I think he’s got an outside shot to go 30^th to San Francisco (1452).

G Brandon Brooks (Miami-Ohio)

Another one of those guys who will make you money if they go in the first 3 rounds, Brooks (495) is a pretty safe pick.

 

DT Billy Winn (Boise State)

Winn is incredibly undervalued at 529. As long as he goes in the first 3 rounds, you’ll make money off him and he’s probably a 2^nd rounder (650). I can’t see him slipping out of the middle of the 3^rd round. The Jets at 77 (592) seems like his floor.

MLB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama)

Hightower (1366) will make you money as long as he goes in the first round. I can’t see him slipping out. He’s very commonly mocked to the Steelers at 24 (1575) and he’s such a good fit for him. I can’t remember the last time I didn’t mock him to them. If they pass, Baltimore at 29 (1450) won’t.

MLB Mychal Kendricks (California)

Kendricks is a rising prospect right now, but his price doesn’t suggest that. At 619, he’s projected between the 68^th and 69^th picks, but he’s actually get some first round buzz to Baltimore at 29 (1450) and New York at 32 (1375). I wouldn’t go that far, but I doubt he gets out of the top half of the 2^nd round. I have him going to Seattle at 43 (875).

OLB Bobby Wagner (Utah State)

Kendricks is the rising prospect now, but Wagner could be the rising prospect next after he essentially matched all of Kendricks’ numbers at his recent Pro Day. Wagner has an outside shot at the first round (1375) and Tampa Bay at 36 (980), St. Louis at 39 (935), Carolina at 40 (920), Bufalo at 41 (905), Seattle at 43 (975), Philadelphia at 46 (830), and Chicago at 50 (780) are all possibilities for him. His price is only 658 and you’ll make money on him as long as he goes in the top 61 picks.

RLB Shea McClellin (Boise State)

McClellin is valued at 578, the equivalent of the 82th pick, but he’ll probably be a top half of the 2^nd round pick, with an outside shot at the first round. He reminds me of Brooks Reed coming out last year.

CB Stephen Gilmore (South Carolina)

Gilmore is a rising prospect with an outside shot at the top 15 or top 10. Cincinnati at 17 (1750) is a more reasonable spot for him, but I wouldn’t rule out him going in the top 15 or top 10, even to Carolina at 9 (2350). His price is 1517, or the equivalent of 27 to New England, which I think is his absolute floor.

S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame)

This is a weak safety class so Smith will probably go in the top half of the 2^nd round or late in the first round. You’ll make money off him as long as he goes above 56 to Pittsburgh. His price is 722.

 

 

Debate the Redskins offseason in the Football Fan Forum

2010 Preview:

The Redskins were a miserable 4-12 last year. Why? Well going 2-8 in games decided by 8 or fewer probably had a lot to do with it. A mere 4 games of 21 points or higher didn’t do them any favors either. You think having a true franchise quarterback in Donovan McNabb helps? His supporting cast on offense may not be as great as his was in Philadelphia, but McNabb has done it before with bad supporting casts. Until Terrell Owens, he didn’t have a true #1 receiver for most of his career. He’s the type of guy whose favorite target is the open one.

The offensive line may still be a question mark, because I don’t think Trent Williams is as NFL ready as some of the other tackles who went in the first round this year. Their running game is also nothing to get excited about, really, with a bunch of washed up vets passed their prime at the running back position. However, I think McNabb will be fine. If Jason Campbell can throw for 3618 yards and 15 touchdowns last year, then McNabb should be able to do at least that and actually close some games out.

Pair a better offense with a good defense and you’ll get something good. This defense has a few issues in the secondary and they are moving to a completely different scheme in the 3-4, but I think they fit it well with guys like Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo. They had 40 sacks last year despite having a stagnant offense. With more early leads, they’ll be able to blitz more. This is an extremely talented bunch, especially in the front 7. I think they’ll compete for a playoff spot this year, even in an extremely competitive NFC East.

Projection: 9-7 3rd in NFC East

Power Ranking: 15

Last season: 4-12

Draft:

#4 OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

Bad pick taking Williams over Okung. Okung would have been perfect for the scheme and been able to protect Donovan McNabb’s blindside right away. However, they liked Trent Williams more which I don’t understand. He has upside, but right now he’s a tweener without a true position. He’s really just a fast right tackle who isn’t a dominant run blocker. He didn’t show himself to be anywhere near good enough as a pass protector to warrant the 4^th pick over Russell Okung.

Grade: C

# 103 MLB Perry Riley (LSU)

There’s nothing wrong with Perry Riley as a player, but he doesn’t fit the scheme well and he doesn’t fill a need. The Redskins have a ton of needs and not a lot of picks so they can’t waste one like they did here.

Grade: C-

#174 TE Dennis Morris (Louisiana Tech)

The Redskins have a ton of needs and not a lot of picks ane need to make each one count. Tight end was probably the one position they didn’t need and Morris is a reach by 1-2 rounds. He can also play fullback, but drafting a backup fullback (Mike Sellers is still a decent player), especially one who has limited experience at the position, is not a smart move with other needs.

Grade: D

#219 WR Terrence Austin (UCLA)

Wide receiver is somewhat of a need, but not a huge need like their offensive line, secondary, or running back position is and Austin is not a good player. He never played well at the college level and has no business being drafted. The Redskins really suck at making picks count, even though Austin has an outside shot at both kick/punt returning jobs. However, with 22.7 yards per kick return in college and 8.7 yards per punt return, he doesn’t exactly jump off the charts there either. He’s never had a special teams touchdown.

Grade: D

#229 C Eric Cook (New Mexico)

At least it’s the right area of the field they are focusing on. They gave up 43 sacks last year and even with the addition of Trent Williams they still need offensive line help. Cook was not the best offensive lineman available, but he’s in the range and he can play multiple positions.

Grade: A-

#231 OT Selvish Capers (West Virginia)

Back in January, Capers could have gone in the 2^nd. Then he embarrassed himself at the Senior Bowl and didn’t live up to his athleticism at the Combine. Still, he is a very raw player with good upside and a good pick here. He fits the scheme and has upside at multiple positions, including left tackle, for the Redskins. Another solid pick for the ‘Skins, but it may be a case of too little too late.

Grade: A 

Overall:

The Redskins had very few picks coming in and had to make them count. They did make a nice trade turning 1 7^th rounder into 2, but they also gave up Jason Campbell and didn’t get a pick in this draft. They had two good picks, but both were 7^th rounders and the rest of their picks were pretty awful. They have already improved themselves this offseason with the addition of McNabb, but if they had made all of these picks count, they could have established themselves as a team that could win the division. Instead, they fall back into the pack of the good NFC East teams and, in my opinon, may have even taken a step back. They really needed to have that #4 be a good player and they didn’t.

Grade: C- 

Key undrafted free agents

S Anderson Russell (Ohio State)

QB Darryl Clark (Penn State)

RB Keiland Williams (LSU)

TE Logan Paulsen (UCLA)

Positions of need:

Offensive Tackle:

Jason Campbell took 43 sacks last year. Jason Campbell isn’t the worst quarterback in the world and who knows, maybe in Mike Shanahan’s system, which he fits better than Jim Zorn’s, and with better protection he can become a good quarterback. He certainly has the physical tools and he’s coming off of a career year stats wise. There is some talk about them taking a quarterback in the first round, but I think they should only do that if Jimmy Clausen is available. Taking Sam Bradford and sticking him behind this line next year is not a good idea with his history of shoulder issues and there’s no guarantee they can get a franchise left tackle in the 2^nd round.

Drafted Trent Williams (#4), Drafted Selvish Capers (#231), Traded for Jammal Brown

Quarterback:

Now if someone bids a ton of money for Jason Campbell, they do need a quarterback, in fact maybe two. They shouldn’t overpay Campbell, so in that case, they should let him leave, get a veteran stopgap guy, draft someone with the 4^th pick and sit him for a year while you fix the offensive line problems and wait to make a playoff run in 2011 and beyond.

Traded for Donovan McNabb 

Running Back:

Clinton Portis looks to be on his last wheels and was really struggling even before the concussion injury which could have cost him his career. Portis has experience in Shanahan’s offense before from his days in Denver, but Shanahan’s offense is a one running back offense that requires one guy to carry the ball 300 times a year and not get hurt. I don’t think Portis can do that and I don’t think Shanahan thinks so either. He’ll be looking for some young blood at the position.

Signed Larry Johnson, signed Willie Parker, signed Ryan Torain

Safety:

They haven’t had a good safety in a while, since the death of Sean Taylor (RIP). LaRon Landry is great against the run, but sucks hard in pass coverage, and opposite him they don’t have much. There are bigger needs, but I could imagine them using a mid round pick on a safety.

Middle Linebacker:

London Fletcher made the Pro Bowl this year for the first time in his career, and deservingly so, but he’s going to be 35 before next season starts so they may want to be looking for some younger blood at the position.

Drafted Perry Riley (#103) 

Center

Casey Rabach is probably one of the worst starting centers in the league. Having an upgrade at the position, though not extremely important, is only going to help Jason Campbell or whoever the quarterback is next year. If they draft Jimmy Clausen, they may want to consider using a mid round pick on Erik Olsen, Clausen’s center at Notre Dame, just for comfort and consistency.

Drafted Erik Cook (#229) 

 

Free agents:

QB Jason Campbell (restricted)- resigned 1 year 3.1 million

QB Todd Collins

QB Colt Brennan 

RB Quinton Ganther (restricted)- not tendered, signed with Seahawks

RB Rock Cartwright- signed with Raiders

RB Marcus Mason- claimed by Chargers

RB Anthony Alridge

RB PJ Hill- claimed by Saints

WR Antawn Randle El- signed with Steelers 3 years

WR Marko Mitchell- claimed by Lions

TE Todd Yoder

OT Stephon Heyer (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.6 million

G Randy Thomas

G Will Montgomery (restricted)- resigned 1 year

C Casey Rabach- resigned 3 yrs 12.3 million 

DE Phillip Daniels- resigned 2 years 2.1 million

DE Chris Wilson (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.6 million

DT Anthony Montgomery (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.1 million

DT Kedric Golston (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

DT Lorenzo Alexander (restricted)- resigned 3 years

DT Cornelius Griffin 

DT Anthony Montgomery 

MLB Rocky McIntosh (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

CB Carlos Rogers (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.5 million

CB Fred Smoot 

S Reed Doughty (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million

P Hunter Smith 

Offseason moves:

Redskins re-sign CB Carlos Rogers

Redskins waive QB Colt Brennan

Redskins acquire QB John Beck from Ravens for CB Doug Dutch 

Redskins acquire OT Jamaal Brown from Saints 

Redskins re-sign MLB Rocky McIntosh

Redskins re-sign S Reed Doughty 

Redskins waive RB Anthony Alridge

Redskins waive WR Marko Mitchell

Redskins waive RB P.J. Hill

Redskins waive DT Anthony Montgomery

Redskins trade QB Jason Campbell to Raiders for 2012 4th-round pick

Redskins sign WR Joey Galloway

Redskins sign RB Ryan Torian

Redskins sign NT Howard Green

Redskins re-sign DT Kedric Golston

Redskins re-sign DT Anthony Montgomery

Redskins re-sign OT Stephon Heyer 

Redskins re-sign QB Jason Campbell

Redskins acquire QB Donovan McNabb from Eagles for 2010 2nd-rounder and a 2011 conditional mid round pick

Redskins sign RB Willie Parker 

Redskins sign CB Phillip Buchanon

Redskins re-sign DE Chris Wilson 

Redskins sign P Josh Bidwell 

Redskins sign QB Rex GROSSman

Redskins re-sign G Will Montgomery

Redskins sign RB Larry Johnson

Redskins sign NT Maake Kemoeatu

Redskins sign G Artis Hicks

Redskins re-sign OT Mike Williams

Redskins re-sign DE Phillip Daniels

Redskins re-sign DT Lorenzo Alexander

Redskins cut WR Antwaan Randle El

Redskins re-sign C Casey Rabach

Redskins tender G Will Montgomery

Redskins tender DT Anthony Montgomery

Redskins tender DT Lorenzo Alexander

Redskins cut QB Todd Collins

Redskins cut RB Marcus Mason

Redskins cut CB Fred Smoot

Redskins cut DT Cornelius Griffin

Redskins cut G Randy Thomas

Redskins cut RB Rock Cartwright

Redskins tender QB Jason Campbell

Redskins tender CB Carlos Rogers

Redskins tender OT Stephon Heyer

Redskins tender DE Chris Wilson

Redskins announce retirement of OT Chris Samuels

Redskins tender OLB Rocky McIntosh

Redskins tender S Reed Doughty

 

WR Steve Breaston- Arizona

Just like almost every other week this season, Breaston will play through a knee injury.

WR Larry Fitzgerald- Arizona

He missed Friday’s practice for his grandfather’s funeral, but will be in the lineup against Denver.

WR Roddy White- Atlanta

Got rest on Wednesday, but will play on Sunday again.

TE Tony Gonzalez- Atlanta

See White, Roddy.

TE Todd Heap- Baltimore

Out.

WR Terrell Owens- Cincinnati

Expected to play through a knee injury once again.

RB Marion Barber- Dallas

Out. I think he can be safely dropped. Tashard Choice is playing well in his absence and Barber was terrible even when healthy.

WR Calvin Johnson- Detroit

He’ll play.

QB Shaun Hill- Detroit

Out.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

Out.

WR Nate Burleson- Detroit

Expected to play, but doesn’t have much value with Drew Stanton at quarterback.

WR Donald Driver- Green Bay

Will be in the lineup this week for the Packers again. Driver has bounced back from early season injury problems and is worth a start as a WR3 again.

TE Owen Daniels- Houston

Will probably start this Monday, but he hasn’t been productive enough this year to be worth the risk. He’s expected to split snaps with Joel Dressen anyway.

WR Mike Sims Walker- Jacksonville

Listed as probable so start him as you normally would.

QB Matt Cassel- Kansas City

Out.

 

WR Brandon Marshall- Miami

Still listed as questionable, but considering he made the trip to New York, I do expect the star receiver to start. Unfortunately Darrelle Revis awaits. I’d still start him, however.

QB Brett Favre- Minnesota

Favre didn’t go through his walk through on Saturday, but with snow postponing the game until Monday, I would be very surprised if Favre didn’t make his 298^th great. In fact, I’m 50% convinced the game was moved just so Favre could start. If Favre is your QB1 (then you’re probably not playing a meaningful game this week), but proceed as normal.

WR Sidney Rice- Minnesota

Rice seems all the way back. He’s a starter from here on out.

WR Percy Harvin- Minnesota

Doubtful. He’s not worth the risk with the game being moved to Monday.

WR Bernard Berrian- Minnesota

He’s expected to start with Percy Harvin likely out. Berrian practiced Friday and is listed as probable, but considering he’s only had more than 2 receptions once this year, there’s no reason why he should even be on your roster, let alone in your starting lineup.

RB Adrian Peterson- Minnesota

Just like last week, he will play through an ankle injury. He rushed for 107 yards and 3 scores last week, so he didn’t look too bad.

QB Tom Brady- New England

BB makes things up. Brady will play despite supposedly having a foot and a shoulder problem.

RB Pierre Thomas- New Orleans

Thomas is expected to play this week for the first time since week 3, but Chris Ivory is still expected to get the bulk of the carries in New Orleans, rather than Thomas.

WR Steve Smith- NY Giants

Practiced in full Friday and said he’d play this week extensively. I’d take the gamble that he plays Monday.

WR Hakeem Nicks- NY Giants

Like Smith, I’m taking the gamble with him starting Monday after he practiced Friday.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw- NY Giants

Missed Wednesday with a wrist problem, but he’ll play Monday after practicing the rest of the week. He’ll split with Brandon Jacobs again.

WR Santonio Holmes- NY Jets

Nothing to worry about here. Expected to play.

TE Zach Miller- Oakland

Upgraded from questionable to probable, which is a good sign. The 5 catches for 28 yards in his last 4, not so much. Given the depth of tight ends this year, I don’t think he’s worth a roster spot until he starts producing again.

QB Michael Vick- Philadelphia

Expected to play after practicing all week. Nothing to fear here.

TE Heath Miller- Pittsburgh

Out.

QB Ben Roethlisberger- Pittsburgh

Expected to play with a protective face shield. It doesn’t affect how he plays.

WR Legedu Naanee- San Diego

Out.

WR Patrick Crayton- San Diego

Out.

WR Vincent Jackson- San Diego

Going to start against Kansas City, but wait for him to do something first.

RB Darren Sproles- San Diego

I’d say it’s more likely than not that Sproles misses this week with a concussion. Considering that he’s a marginal starter and that it’s a 4:15 start time, look elsewhere.

TE Antonio Gates- San Diego

One of the toughest guys in the league, Gates is going to try to play this week despite missing practice all week. He’s a game time decision for a 4:15 start, but he’s good enough to still be startable, provided you have a suitable backup that has a 4:15 or later start.

RB Brian Westbrook- San Francisco

Took two personal days this week, but will play against Seattle, who can’t stop the run. He’ll probably split with Anthony Dixon, but he’s still a decent flex option.

WR Mike Williams- Seattle

He’s a game time decision for a 4:15 start…again. He hasn’t caught a ball since week 11, so I’d say look elsewhere this week.

TE Kellen Winslow- Tampa Bay

He’ll play through a knee injury for the 38uiwf467p8ew9iqth straight week.

RB Ryan Torain- Washington

He’s expected to start this week, but in the last 3 weeks the Redskins haven’t, ran much, scored much, gotten into the end zone much, moved the ball much, or been consistent with their running back’s carries (well Shanny’s never been). He’s a risk this week and might not be worth the reward.

QB Donovan McNabb- Washington

Why is he listed every week? He’s not even hurt!

WR Santana Moss- Washington

He’s listed as questionable, but given that he practiced on Friday, I think he should be good to go. He’s the only fantasy startable Redskins right now (along with Chris Cooley).

 

 

 

Last week overall: 10-6

Last week ATS: 8-7-1 (+50)

Overall picks: 20-12

ATS Picks: 14-15-3 (-610)

Lock picks: 1-1

Upset picks: 2-1

San Francisco 49ers 28 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Spread: -3 San Francisco

Pick against spread: San Francisco (3 units) -330

The 49ers are 0-2 and the Chiefs are 2-0, but the 49ers are still favored on the road. There’s a reason for that. The 49ers have looked better than the Chiefs in their two games. The 49ers could have easily won that game against New Orleans last week if it wasn’t for some mental errors. The Chiefs have won two games in spite of Matt Cassel, thanks to a pick six, a long run for a touchdown, a punt return touchdown, 3 field goals, and an interception that set up a really short field. In fact, the only touchdown drive that involved a pass by Matt Cassel this season for the Chiefs was a mere 13 yards long, after a takeaway. I don’t expect those type of things to continue against the 49ers. The 49ers now the Chiefs can’t beat them too much offensively, especially through the air, so they can take away the run with their strong run defense, force Matt Cassel to convert 3^rd and long which would be disastrous, and grind out the clock with efficient throws by Alex Smith and runs by Frank Gore.

Buffalo Bills 10 New England Patriots 31 Lock pick

Spread: -15 New England

Pick against spread: New England (2 units) -220

The Patriots offense didn’t look good last week and their defense looked worse. However, the Bills are the worst team in the league. They simply can’t do anything offensively. Tom Brady has also only lost back-to-back regular season games once since 2003. This team is great at bouncing back with Brady at the helm. They also haven’t lost to the Bills since 2003. Everything here says the Patriots can’t lose this one, so they’re my lock pick, but that 15 point spread scares me. Picking a team to win by 15 is a very risky choice, but I’m doing it anyway and going with my guy that this one will be a blowout.

Detroit Lions 21 Minnesota Vikings 28

Spread: -11 Minnesota

Pick against spread: Detroit (2 units) -220

The Vikings are going to bounce back this week. Brett Favre doesn’t start season 0-3. He’s only done it once in his 350 year career. The Lions defense isn’t as bad as the one they rolled out early last season, which Favre and co just demolished, but you’d still have a hard time naming 5 defenses you’d rather face when you need to get your offense back on track than the Lions. However, that spread is insane. I don’t think a winless team should ever be favored by more than 10, unless it’s week 2 and it’s a really bad opponent. The Lions aren’t that bad. They’re going to lose this game, but they’ve done a good job of hanging with teams, losing their 2 games by a combined 4 points.

Atlanta Falcons 21 New Orleans 31

Spread: -4 New Orleans

Pick against spread: New Orleans (2 units) -220

Simply put, you don’t pick a team to win in New Orleans, unless of course that team is the Saints. Drew Bress has looked decent, efficient, but not amazing in his first 2 games this season. However, you just know he’s ready to explode and can at any moment for 30+ points. The Falcons don’t have a very good secondary, with no one opposite a solid, but overrated and overpaid Dunta Robinson at cornerback. That’s going to force Matt Ryan to match, which is going to force him into turnovers by New Orleans’ blitz heavy and opportunistic defense. That’s what he did last year. That’s how the Saints won last year in this matchup and in many. I expect them to do it again, even with top interceptor Darren Sharper injured on the PUP.

Tennessee Titans 21 New York Giants 23

Spread: -3 Giants

Pick against spread: Titans (1 unit) +100

This was honestly the toughest matchup for me to pick this week. I don’t really have a good read for either team. The Giants were extremely talented coming into this season and looked great in their week 1 opener. However, they were playing the Panthers, who, as has been revealed, aren’t very good. Then they got steamrolled week 2, showing a lot of the same problem that they had last year as they went 8-8, but they were playing the Colts. The Titans looked great to end last season, won week 1 easily, and looked like a potential sleeper, but they were playing the Raiders, who, has it turns out, still aren’t very good. Week 2 they lost on ugly one to the Steelers, that they could have won if they didn’t commit 7 turnovers, but at the same time they were playing an amazing Steelers defense. Also in that game, Vince Young was benched. He will start this week, but there’s no telling how he’ll respond after being benched. Last time he was benched, he went MIA and, according to rumors, tried to kill himself. Simply put, I don’t really have any idea who will win. The Giants are more talented, but don’t always play like it. Nonetheless, I’ll pick them, but not against that tiny spread, as this is way too unpredictable and evenly matched a matchup. When a matchup like this comes around, I normally go underdog, just because, all things equal, and underdog has a better shot to win an against the spread bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Spread: -3 Steelers

Pick against spread: Steelers (1 unit) +100

Week one, the Steelers defense confused the hell out of young Matt Ryan. Week two, the Steelers defense confused the hell out of young Vince Young. Why wouldn’t they confuse the hell out of young Josh Freeman this week? Freeman is a good quarterback and I definitely don’t think his early season success this year is a fluke, especially with a partially broken thumb. However, so are Ryan and Young. The Steelers are just that good. The Steelers’ offense isn’t going to do a lot with Charlie Batch at the helm, but I expect they can get the points necessary to win this ugly one. Their running game is solid, Charlie Batch is a decent game manager, and the Buccaneers young defense, while improved, isn’t great.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 Carolina Panthers 13

Spread: -3 ½ Bengals

Pick against spread: Bengals (3 units) +300

Last week, Cincinnati picked off Joe Flacco four times for an ugly 15-10 win. Jimmy Clausen is making his first career start for the Panthers. Panthers quarterbacks have been horrible in recent memory, with both Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore simply unable to avoid turnovers. A lot of that blame has to fall on the quarterbacks supporting cast. I don’t think Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore are that horrible. The Panthers receivers can’t get open and all of a sudden, their once proud line, can’t block at all, especially in pass protection. Jimmy Clausen is a solid quarterback and has a history at Notre Dame of playing with poor supporting casts, but still, he is a rookie and his supporting cast is crap. I expect him to make a few mistakes in this one and not have a great game. Carson Palmer and the Bengals offense struggled in their win over the Ravens, kicking a mere 5 field goals, 2 of which would have never happened if the Ravens defensive backs could catch, despite forcing 4 turnovers. However, the Panthers defense is far from the Ravens defense. Palmer should be able to put up enough points in this one to win this close one.

Cleveland Browns 10 Baltimore Ravens 27

Spread: -11 Ravens

Pick against spread: Ravens (2 units) -220

Joe Flacco, following his strong preseason, was expected to take his game to another level in his 3^rd year and make the Ravens a legitimate Super Bowl contender. In 2 games, he has 1 touchdown and 5 picks. Not exactly what people expected. However, he’s still a strong quarterback and this game against the lowly Browns is exactly what he needs to get back on track. The Ravens have had a tough early season, going to New York to play the Jets and then to Cincinnati to play the Bengals, two road games against 2009 playoff teams in 2 weeks. Joe Flacco had a particularly tough start to the season, as the Bengals and Jets both have elite pass defenses. I expect this team to come home and destroy the Browns in their home opener this week.

 

Dallas Cowboys 27 Houston Texans 28

Spread: -3 Texans

Pick against spread: Dallas (1 unit) +100

This should be an interesting game. How many people predicted three weeks ago that this would be a matchup of the 2-0 Texans and the 0-2 Cowboys? The Texans have a chance to make another statement this week, something that’ll go a long way to proving themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Cowboys, on the other hand, need to win. Very few teams make the playoffs after starting 0-3. I am taking the home team, the Texans here and going with the hot hand. The Texans have just as much offensive fire power as the Cowboys and have their heads right, right now, but I think it’ll be close. I’m not betting against the Cowboys are underdogs. You don’t pass up a chance to take a team with this much talent as an underdog, even against an opponent like the Texans with such a small spread.

Washington Redskins 28 St. Louis Rams 10

Spread: -4 ½ Washington

Pick against spread: Redskins (4 units) -440 

The small spread in this game has people wondering if Vegas knows something we don’t. I can’t think of anything that could possibly be to make the spread that low. Did Donovan McNabb secretly die? I’m going to jump all over this small spread and take the Redskins in a blowout over the improving, but not quite there yet Rams. If Donovan McNabb can tear apart Houston’s secondary, what will he do to St. Louis’?

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Spread: -3 Eagles

Pick against spread: Eagles (3 units) +300

The Jaguars defense is pitiful. They needed to add a defensive end or a cornerback through the draft in the first round last year, but they went with a defensive tackle. As surprisingly well as Tyson Alualu is playing, he doesn’t have the positional value to make a huge impact on a defense like an end or a cornerback. LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick should both have a field day against this crappy defense.

Indianapolis Colts 34 Denver Broncos 13

Spread: -6 Colts

Pick against spread: Indianapolis (5 units) +500

Peyton Manning was going to destroy Denver’s defense like he did last year anyway, but with Champ Bailey likely to miss this game, it’s just not even fair. I don’t know why the spread for this one is only -6. The Broncos are not even remotely a good team and are still extremely overrated by Vegas after going 1-1 over an easy schedule and looking good against a Seahawks team that is overrated as well, following a fluke win over the confused 49ers.

Oakland Raiders 19 Arizona Cardinals 10 upset pick

Spread: -4 ½ Cardinals

Pick against spread: Raiders (4 units) +400

Why anyone would make the Cardinals favorites after their 34 point loss last week is beyond me. The Raiders aren’t that bad. Bruce Gradkowski is likely going to be the starter for this one for the Raiders, which isn’t a bad move. Gradkowski knows how to rally a team and should be able to lead this team to a victory in a low scoring affair against the lowly Cardinals.

San Diego Chargers 35 Seattle Seahawks 17

Spread: -6 Seahawks

Pick against spread: Chargers (3 units) -330

This could be an interesting one. The Chargers always suck to begin the year, like as a rule, but the Seahawks simply aren’t as good of a team as their week 1 performance showed. Once Matt Hasselbeck plays more games and takes more hits, he’s going to start throwing more picks. The Chargers have a pass rush that can actually get to the quarterback well so that doesn’t bode well for Hasselbeck. Philip Rivers might not play well again, as was the case against Jacksonville last week, but, as was the case last week, that might not matter if the Chargers defense can create pressure and turnovers.

New York Jets 21 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset pick

Spread: -2 ½ Dolphins (3 units) +300

Chad Henne has looked good on paper this year, but the facts are, he has one touchdown, a YPA of 6, and has led his team to 2 touchdowns this season, despite having an amazing running game behind him and despite not playing the best of defenses, the Bills, and Vikings. I’m not going to pick him to win a game where, either the other team has an amazing quarterback that Henne will have to throw a lot to match, or the other team has a strong run defense that will force Henne to pass. The Jets have the latter, and may have the former, though I’m not ready to crown the Sanchize after one game. I don’t expect Henne to be able to create enough through the air. He could. He certainly has the capability to be able to, with his strong arm, but until he does, I’m not picking him to win this game, especially having to throw against the Jets still tough secondary sans Revis.

Green Bay Packers 35 Chicago Bears 20

Spread: -3 Packers (4 units) -440

The Bears are the league’s most overrated team. They won two games they could have easily lost, despite the fact that Cutler is playing out of his mind. Cutler plays out of his mind sometimes, but not always and they are still barely winning. I doubt he’ll have that good of a game here against the packers strong defense. He certainly didn’t last year. Clay Matthews is a beast. Guns don’t kill people. Clay Matthews kills people. He has 6 sacks in 2 games and you can bet he’ll have a sack or two or three in this one, against a patchwork Chicago offensive line. They were able to block the Cowboys last week, because the Cowboys didn’t adjust. The Packers will adjust and they will destroy Cutler and force interceptions and incompletions against this amazing defense. And I haven’t even talked about Aaron Rodgers yet. Simply put, this one is going to be a whole lot more of a blowout than people expect.

 

 

 

10/13/11 9 PM ET

USC at California

OT Matt Kalil (USC) #75

Simply put, a stud left tackle, the best since Joe Thomas and Jake Long and possibly better than them. Kalil has done an excellent job of protecting Matt Barkley’s blindside at USC for 3 years. He has NFL bloodlines, his brother Ryan is a Pro-Bowl center for the Carolina Panthers, and he’s so good that he kept Tyron Smith at right tackle for USC. Smith went 9^th in the 2011 NFL Draft. Kalil could go as high as #2, the first player after Andrew Luck. Athletic at 6-7 305, but also powerful, he’d be best fit in a zone blocking scheme like USC’s, but scheme versatile as well. He’s also an elite special teamer, blocking 4 kicks in his career.

MLB Chris Galippo (USC) #54

An elite high school prospect, Galippo had a solid redshirt sophomore year with 70 tackles, 2 picks, 8 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks. He was expected to improve further open those stats last year in his 2^nd year as a starter and follow in the shoes of Rey Maualuga, a former USC middle linebacker who went in the 2^nd round in 2009. However, he struggled with injuries and stayed for his senior year. So far, he seems to have put it all together with 28 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks in 5 games. He’s moving back into day 2 consideration.

10/8/11 3 PM ET (ESPN3 rewatch)

Boston College at Clemson

OLB Luke Kuechly (Boston College) #40

Luke Kuechly’s a statistician’s wet dream. He had 325 combined tackles in his first 2 seasons at BC and now he already has 83 this season through 5 games. He’s had 10+ tackles in 24 of his last 25 games (the other game he had 9) and if he were 10 pounds bigger and a little faster, he’d be a sure top 10 pick. Still, the 6-2 235 pounder is a top 15 pick at this point.

DE Andre Branch (Clemson) #40

Branch, a day 2 pick coming into this year as a 3-4 linebacker/4-3 end type, burst onto the scene last week with a huge 3 sack day against Virginia Tech in a win. Now he’s getting first round consideration. At 6-5 265 with good speed, he’s a fit for either scheme and has potential to move up if he can keep having good games. Through 5, he has 4 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, and 33 total tackles. Last year, he had 54 tackles, 8.5 for a loss, and 6 sacks.

10/15/11 12 PM ET

Baylor at Texas A&M

QB Robert Griffin (Baylor) #10

A solid player in 2010 with a completion percentage of 67.0% with an average of 7.7 yards per attempt and 22 touchdowns to 8 interceptions, Griffin has taken it to a whole new level in 2011. He is completing a whopping 80.3% of his passes for an average of 10.7 per attempt and 19 touchdowns to 1 pick, leading Division I with a quarterback rating of 212.9. He’s also a dual threat who has rushed for 173 yards through 5 games this season after 635 yards in 2010. He’s put himself into the Heisman race in a big way, but because of his early level of competition, opinions are as split on him as they were on Cam Newton last year. One side says he’s awesome, the other says, it’s just been 5 games against weak competition. A big game here against Texas A&M’s talented defense, his toughest test so far, will do a lot to help his stock.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) #17

Tannehill, a former wide receiver turned quarterback, came out of nowhere last year after Texas A&M benched starting quarterback Jerrod Johnson, who didn’t fit the team’s new Pro Style offense. When Tannehill took over, they were 3-3. He took them to 9-4, with that one loss to LSU in the Cotton Bowl. He completed 65% of his passes for an average of 7.0 per and 13 touchdowns to 6 picks in the process and entered 2011 as a potential day 2 pick. However, he is slipping this year after blowing big leads to Oklahoma State and Arkansas in consecutive weeks and a lackluster performance against Texas Tech last week. He’ll need to have a strong game here against Baylor to avoid slipping out of the middle rounds. He’s completing 67.1% of his passes this year for an average of 7.7 per attempt, but only 7 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.

10/15/11 3:30 PM ET

Oklahoma State at Texas

QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) #3

A former minor league baseball pitcher, the strong armed Weeden completed 66.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 per attempt and 34 touchdowns to 13 interceptions in 2010. He has himself in the Heisman race now for undefeated Oklahoma State, completing 75.8% of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards per attempt and 15 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, but concerns about the stat bloating offense he plays in, as well as his age, have him in day 3 right now. He’s 27 and will be 28 by draft day because of his time in the minors. For comparison, he’s older than Aaron Rodgers.

S Markelle Martin (Oklahoma State) #10

Martin is having a strong season and could be poised to take advantage of a weak safety class if he keeps this up. He could sneak into the first round. The 6-1 200 pound safety has 29 tackles, 2 for a loss, and 5 pass deflections this season, after 55 tackles, 2 for a loss, and 10 deflections last year.

 

10/15/11 7:30 PM ET

Stanford at Colorado

OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford) #55

The #2 offensive tackle in this class, behind Matt Kalil, Martin is part of an excellent offensive line that has done a great job protecting Andrew Luck. Even more impressive, Martin has helped keep Andrew Luck protected this year despite the fact that Stanford lost 3 starting offensive linemen in the offseason, including an All-American center. He looks like a top 10 pick.

G Ryan Miller (Colorado) #73

A big tackle offensive guard, Miller is 6-8 310 and projects to be a day 2 pick. He has done a good job keeping Colorado’s offensive line playing well this year even without Nate Solder.

10/8/11 7 PM ET (ESPN3 replay)

Vanderbilt at Alabama

CB Casey Hayward (Vanderbilt) #19

When last I saw Casey Hayward, he was doing an admirable job on Alshon Jeffery against South Carolina. He limited Jeffery, a potential top 10 pick, to 2 catches, though poor quarterback play by South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia had a lot to do with that as well. He also had 2 picks in that game, though again, that has a lot to do with Garcia. Alabama’s passing attack is a little better so this should be a better test for Hayward, who has 12 career interceptions and is gaining some buzz as a potential late first round pick.

MLB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) #30

Hightower is finally healthy and putting it all together. The big 6-4 260 pound linebacker has 29 tackles through 5 games in the middle of Alabama’s 3-4 defense and could end up a first round pick if he keeps this up and continues to prove his health. He was a popular name as a potential first rounder before his injuries, taking over for Rolando McClain inside for Alabama and now that he’s healthy again, he’s starting to get mocked in that range again.

ESPN3 Replays

10/15/11 12:30 PM ET

Miami at North Carolina

OLB Zach Brown (North Carolina) #47

The 6-2 230 Brown is rumored to have run a 4.28 40 before and should run at least in the 4.4s at The Combine. Part of a North Carolina defense loaded with future NFL players, Brown has 42 tackles, 5 for a loss, 2.5 sacks, a pick, and 3 pass deflections in 6 games this year and should be a first rounder in April. If he does run in the 4.3s or even 4.2s, he could be a top 15 pick and one of the first linebackers off the board in a loaded linebacker class (Vontaze Burflict, Manti Te’o, Luke Kuechly, Courtney Upshaw, Travis Lewis, and Dont’a Hightower could all go in the first round).

S Ray Ray Armstrong (Miami) #26

Armstrong, a potential 2^nd round pick at safety, missed the first 4 games of the season with a stupid suspension, but returned last week against Virginia Tech to record 7 tackles. In 2010, he had 79 tackles, 4.5 for a loss, 3 picks, and 3 deflections. The big 6-4 220 safety is very fast for his size and could challenge Markelle Martin to be the top safety in this class with Robert Lester and TJ McDonald struggling so far this season. Mark Barron is also in the mix.

10/15/11 6 PM ET

Alabama at Mississippi

OT Barrett Jones (Alabama) #75

A left tackle at Alabama, Jones, a much better run blocker than a pass protector, projects as a guard at the next level. He’s got great technique, but he’s not very athletic and he doesn’t have the size (6-5 305) to make up for it. However, in Alabama’s run heavy offense, he’s a beast and part of the reason why Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson have had so much success in recent years.

OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) #41

One of the most versatile linebackers in the country, the 6-2 260 pound Upshaw played inside and outside in Alabama’s 3-4 last season, compiling 52 tackles and 7 sacks. He’s best fit in a 3-4, but theoretically he could play outside linebacker and defensive end in a 4-3. This season, he has 18 tackles, 8.5 for a loss, 1.5 sacks, and a pick in 6 games for undefeated Alabama. He had a huge game against Florida when I last watched Florida.