Last week overall: 9-5

Last week ATS: 6-7-1 (-740/-17%)

Overall picks: 53-37 (.579)

ATS Picks: 43-43-4 (-$310)

Lock picks: 5-1

Upset picks: 7-7

Sports Betting FAQ 

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Miami Dolphins 16

Spread: Pittsburgh -3

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 4 units

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense didn’t look amazing last week, they looked human, allowing Colt McCoy to have a fairly solid debut. My theory, this defense played its heart out for 4 games with Big Ben out. Last week, with Big Ben back and a rookie in McCoy coming to town, they took a bit of a break. I expect them to be better this week. Chad Henne has not won at home this season. I don’t think Henne is a better quarterback than Roethlisberger and a certainly don’t think the Dolphins defense, even with the emergence of Cameron Wake, is anywhere near as good as Pittsburgh’s. Pittsburgh’s is just so much better overall as a team. I don’t see how Henne can outthrow Roethlisberger against Pittsburgh’s defense, without the benefit of his much needed running game against Pittsburgh #1 ranked run defense.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Spread: Atlanta -3.5

Pick against spread: Atlanta 4 units

The Falcons’ weakness as a team is their pass defense. They ranked 27th in the league in YPA allowed. However, Carson Palmer is not the type of quarterback who can take advantage of that. He stinks. He struggled against Tampa Bay, who is playing horrible without Tanard Jackson against the pass. Palmer threw 3 picks in that game and the Falcons defense actually leads the league in interceptions. They should pick him off a few times and set up nice field position for their offense. Cincinnati’s defense is good, but they’ll be missing Antawn Odom for 4 game thanks to a PED suspension. They already struggled to pressure the quarterback before that. Their cornerbacks are amazing, but pass rush is more important than shut down corners for the most part. Also remember Matt Ryan is 14-1 in his career at home and with a 3.5 point spread, all he really needs to do is win. That spread is not very big at all.

Washington Redskins 26 Chicago Bears 16 Upset Pick

Spread: Chicago -3

Pick against spread: Washington 3 units

Jay Cutler has been sacked 15 times in the last 6 quarters he’s played and Mike Martz is refusing to make adjustments, like running more or switching to more 5 step drops. The Redskins have 13 sacks on the season and can create good pressure when they blitz. The Redskins are a good team and the Bears have yet to beat a team that has more than 1 win other than the Packers, who shot themselves in the shot with 18 penalties. I think they are very overrated and should not be getting points here with the way they’ve been playing lately, failing to complete 50% of their passes in 3 straight games. The Redskins are 5-1 against the spread this season and are very underrated. Also keep in mind, they also beat the Packers, who are the Bears’ best victory.

New Orleans Saints 26 Cleveland Browns 20

Spread: -13 New Orleans

Pick against spread: Cleveland 3 units

The Saints have covered once this season, despite being 4-2. I have no idea why they are getting 13 points here, even at home. They play well when they can run, but unlike the Buccaneers, who they ran all over last week in a 25 point win, the Browns are decent against the run, 18th. It’s not amazing but it should be enough to contain Chris Ivory. I just don’t think the Saints should be favored by this many after just one game, when a week ago they were 3-2 and coming off a loss to the Cardinals.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Buffalo Bills 10 Lock Pick

Spread: -13 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Baltimore 1 unit

Big spreads are iffy a lot of the time, but the Bills are really bad so I can feel safe picking the Ravens here, but I almost never put more than 1 unit on a 12+ point spread. Still, I think the Ravens should be able to dominate the lowly Bills here. I don’t even think this needs much explanation.

 

Carolina Panthers 16 San Francisco 10 Upset pick

Spread: -2 49ers

Pick against spread: Carolina 2 units

The 49ers just won so they could get complacent and start feeling like their problems are fixed, especially with 0-5 Carolina on tap. San Francisco is not a good team. They couldn’t do anything against the Raiders until that last drive. The Panthers defense is better than the Raiders. They actually rank 6th in the league in yards allowed, but no one notices because their offense is so bad. They’re also 12th in points allowed. I expect Alex Smith to struggle slightly more on the road, traveling across 3 time zones against Carolina’s defense, than Matt Moore against a San Francisco pass defense that made Matt Cassel look good a few weeks ago. Matt Moore is starting this week and he has more experience than Clausen so he can deal with the lack of supporting cast better. John Fox is also coaching to pad his resume, as evidence by his switch to Matt Moore, the veteran. I expect him to coach well and lead this team to victory at home, their first of the season. All this being said, I’d have to be insane to put more than 2 units on the Panthers against a fairly even spread.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tennessee Titans 21 Upset pick

Spread: -3 Tennessee

Pick against spread: Philadelphia 1 unit

This is a tough one. The Titans have looked great at times this season, but we’ve seen them struggle after a win before this season and it’s tough to tell how good they truely after because of how bad Jacksonville played last week. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is on the road, but has the better quarterback and the better pass defense. However, the Titans amazing pass rush could be in the backfield a lot because of how bad the Eagles line is and that could force the young Kolb to struggle even against Tennessee’s weak secondary. I’m leaning towards Philadelphia to win because I think they’re a better team, but the Titans often play better than they’re expected to. That’s just how Jeff Fisher rolls. I’m taking Philly because they are underdogs and I think they’re the better team, but I’m not putting a lot on this.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Spread: -9.5 Kansas City Chiefs

Pick against spread: Jacksonville 1 unit

Another tough one. Matt Cassel plays well against bad secondaries, but so does David Garrard. The Jaguars secondary is worse, but not by a lot. Kansas City’s also a more talented overall team, but also not a lot. They are favored by a ton, 9.5, and I don’t think they cover that, but I’ve learned by lesson about putting more than 2 units on Jacksonville. They could fairly easily come in and lay a stinker here. But I’m taking the Jaguars to win against the spread. The Chiefs are coming off two heart breaking losses and were not very good to begin with to start the season at 3-0. They could be very flat after two heartbreaking losses with a bad team that just lost by 27 on Monday Night Football at home coming to town.

St. Louis Rams 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset pick

Spread: -2.5 Tampa Bay

Pick against spread: St. Louis 3 units

I’m not understanding why the Buccaneers are favored here. They are 1-9 against the spread at home under Raheem Morris. Their defense is playing terrible right now and they just lost by 25 at home to a team that just lost to the Cardinals on the road. This defense of Tampa’s is terrible and I think the Rams have the better offense. They can at least run the ball and I think Bradford is the better quarterback right now. The Rams have issues on the road, but they did win one on the road this season and I think they can do it again against a team that’s not playing very well.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Arizona Cardinals 21

Spread: -5.5 Seattle

Pick against spread: Seattle 2 units

Max Hall makes his first road start here and he’s going into Seattle, a very tough place to win. The Seahawks haven’t even been that good since 2009 and they’re 6-4 at home. They’re playing their best football now since 2007, when they went 7-1 at home. With Russell Okung healthy and Marshawn Lynch in there, this team is looking like a legitimate playoff team, like they could possibly make the playoffs even in any other division. Hall’s not beating this team in Seattle.

Denver Broncos 24 Oakland Raiders 20 

Spread: -8 Denver

Pick against spread: Oakland 2 units

Kyle Boller is expected to start, but remember JaMarcus Russell and JP Losman combined to beat this team last year 20-19. The Broncos strength is their passing game and that’s the strength of the Raiders defense. The Raiders can’t stop the run, but the Broncos can’t run and don’t even do it that much. The Broncos, meanwhile, can’t stop the run either, but the Raiders run well. The matchups are in favor of Oakland, definitely. Oakland is also an annoying team. They are 4-2 under Tom Cable as road underdogs of 7 or more. They do well when no one expects it. I think they can do it this week, even with Kyle Boller. I also just don’t think the Broncos are good enough to be favored by more than a touchdown, unless they were facing the Bills or someone. I’m not putting a lot of Kyle Boller, but I’m picking him and the Raiders against a team against whome they are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 meetings. The Raiders did beat the Chargers this season. They play well against big rivals.

New England Patriots 34 San Diego Chargers 21 Upset pick

Spread: -3 San Diego

Pick against spread: New England 3 units

Call me crazy, but I actually think this Chargers team is bad this year. Even if they aren’t, they are expected to be missing their top 2 receivers, which is going to help the Patriots’ defense. The Patriots defense isn’t good, but they are opportunistic. They capitalize on mistakes, which the Chargers have been making a lot of lately. The Patriots always come to play against the Chargers and they always seem to beat them. Even on the road, I expect them to do the same this week. There’s no reason why they should be field goal underdogs here.

Minnesota Vikings 28 Green Bay Packers 21 Upset Pick

Spread: -2.5 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Minnesota 2 units

This just seems like the type of game where Brett Favre goes off and shows the world why he’s Brett Favre. He’s playing in Lambeau, against his old team. He’s got the sexual assualt allegations. He’s got the bad elbow. This is a must win game. Those circumstances make most quarterbacks crumble. It makes Favre better. Favre was 41 for 59 for 515 yards and 7 touchdowns to no sacks last season against the Packers. The Packers are banged up now and I expect Favre to play extremely well in a victory.

New York Giants 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset pick

Spread: -3 Dallas

Pick against spread: New York 2 units

I’m going to keep betting against the Cowboys until they start playing to their potential. The fact that they’re favorites here just makes it an even better play. The Cowboys could win. We’ve seen the Giants play bad at times this season, but I’m not going to take the Cowboys until they give me reason to. They haven’t done that yet.

 

 

 

McGahee probably doesn’t have a ton left in the tank. He’s 30 in October and this deal takes him until he’s 32, a 3 year deal, and he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last year. However, he only has 1541 career carries which makes him fresher than a lot of backs his age and he hasn’t had to carry a load since 2007. He was the best running back remaining, assuming Ahmad Bradshaw and Michael Bush return to their respective teams, and the Broncos needed another back to go with Knowshon Moreno. They also got him on a fairly low risk contract, 3 years, 7.5 million, with 3 million guaranteed.

Grade: A

 

“Should” Mock Fans Only Mock

Only 1 round today in my 2010 NFL Mock Draft. Tomorrow is the actual NFL Draft, the first round only, so I decided to go more in depth on round 1 rather than doing 7 rounds. Before Friday, I’ll have rounds 2-3 and then 4-7 before Saturday.

This mock is what I think will happen. To see what I think should happen, check out my alternate “Should” Mock Draft.

Be sure to check out The Football Fan Spot this Thursday during the draft for our official NFL Draft Live Blog

Updated 4/22/10

 

1. St. Louis Rams 1-15

I have said it all along that this pick would and should be a quarterback, but I think I had the wrong quarterback. Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford showed up to the combine needing to prove his shoulder strength after two separations and a surgery last season. His shoulder not only passed with flying colors, but he put on 15-20 pounds of muscle, a major sign of his strong wrong ethic. Two major concerns of his were arm strength and shoulder health and he put both of those concerns to rest at the Combine.

I still say Clausen is the better quarterback, but, at The Combine, a former NFL GM anonymously  polled about 12, maybe more, current NFL GMs, about who they preferred, Clausen or Bradford, and every one of them said Bradford. Even if the Rams’ GM was not asked, which I find unlikely, it is still a very good sign for Bradford that he has this many supporters around the league. His strong Pro Day only makes it more likely that he goes #1.

Many will argue Ndamukong Suh here, but, as dominant of a prospect he is, he doesn’t have the positional value here. History has shown, if a team needs a left tackle or quarterback early in the draft, they will take that above all else, even the consensus top prospect. Remember Glenn Dorsey? How about Aaron Curry? Here’s some facts. Since 1998, 36 players have gone in the top three overall. 15 have been quarterbacks, 6 have been offensive tackles, and 6 have been defensive ends. That’s only 25% that aren’t quarterbacks, offensive tackles, or defensive ends. When you look closer, all 12 #1 overall picks since 1998 have been quarterback, offensive tackles, or defensive end. Those positions just have so much more positional value than any other. For more facts on the top 3 picks, click here.

The Rams don’t need an offensive tackle or defensive end, so it’ll be quarterback here. Recently, other mock drafters have been shifting heavily towards Bradford. For more information check out our NFL Mock Draft Database.

Other possibilities:

QB Jimmy Clausen- They have brought him in for a workout, though no one thought much of it because Bradford is regarded as the best quarterback in the draft. However, we don’t know for sure they’ll take him and they may be scared off by the fact that he won’t sign before draft day. Regardless of what Todd McShay says, Clausen is good. In fact, McShay is an idiot who should be fired.

2. Detroit Lions 2-14

The Lions draft strictly from the draft board, going best available with every pick. That is why I have been alternating between Eric Berry and Ndamukong Suh here in recent weeks (Berry more over the past few weeks because defensive tackle is no longer a huge need). However, after Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung went to Detroit for a workout and the results were extremely positive, he will probably be atop their draft board, despite all the praise they have given Jeff Backus.

Besides, this is not the same old panel of drafters in Detroit where they are completely opposed to drafting guys with high positional value. After all, they did take a quarterback #1 last year before so called “safer prospects” like Aaron Curry and Jason Smith. Okung will allow Backus to move to left guard and, if the Lions can shore up their pass defense in the later rounds, they could be a huge sleeper next year, even in the stacked NFC North.

Even after trading for Rob Sims, I still say this pick will be Russell Okung. They also have traded for Corey Williams this offseason and I’d rather have a patchwork defensive line than a patch work offensive line when I’m trying to protect a 73 million dollar 2^nd year investment at quarterback. They may still pick Suh, but unless I hear otherwise, I trust the Lions will make the right pick. For more on how the Rob Sims deal effects this pick, click here.

Other possibilities:

DT Ndamukong Suh- The Lions like to take best available and may take Suh even though he fills less of a need or positional value.

DT Gerald McCoy- As is the case with Suh, they may decide that McCoy is the best available and take him.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13

I’ve had the Buccaneers trading down to 6, with Seattle who moves up to get Jimmy Clausen, in recent weeks, but after the Charlie Whitehurst trade, the Seahawks no longer have the quarterback need nor the picks to get the job done. The Buccaneers may sadly, still trade down in hopes of getting still getting Gerald McCoy, but that would be a huge risk that could give their fans a synchronized heart attack. I would not be totally surprised if they moved down to 7, with Cleveland moving up to get Clausen, but I am not going to mock that here. The Buccaneers will just go with the overall top prospect at a huge position of need, defensive tackle, taking Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh in hopes of fixing their 32^nd ranked run defense.

Other possibilities:

DT Gerald McCoy- Sources say they’ll take Suh over McCoy if given the choice, but sources aren’t 100% always. McCoy would be a better fit, though is a lower rated prospect.

DE Jason Pierre Paul- They may go for the homerun at a key position and take JPP and his massive upside.

4. Washington Redskins 4-12

What happens at this pick will say a lot about the Donovan McNabb trade. Did Daniel Snyder pick in McNabb to sell tickets now or to win now? If he did the former, expect this pick to be either Eric Berry or Gerald McCoy, even though they don’t have great positional value or address major needs, because they are bigger names. If it’s about winning now, you can bet Snyder will take an offensive lineman here to get Donovan McNabb some protection. He wouldn’t win much behind an offensive line that surrendered 43 sacks last year. I will lean towards the latter for now, assuming that the idea with trading for McNabb is to try to make the playoffs and compete for a Championship in the three or so good years McNabb has left in the tank. Oklahoma OT Trent Williams gives them the best opportunity to do that. If they pass on a tackle here, they’ll have to wait until the 4th to take one and that’s not a smart idea.

Other possibilities:

3-4 DE Gerald McCoy- The defensive line isn’t a huge need, but they like big names and doing stupid things. McCoy is also the best available. This becomes more likely if the Redskins move Albert Haynesworth.

S Eric Berry- Same case with McCoy, only Berry may be higher on their board.

OT Bryan Bulaga- Williams is a better fit for their blocking scheme, but Bulaga could be higher on their board.

5. Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

Brandan Albert was one of the worst starting left tackles in the league this year and he’s movable, either by trade or more likely to a different position, for many reasons. He doesn’t have a large contract or any flagship merchant services tying up sponsorships. The regime that drafted him is no longer in town. He has versatility position wise and can also play right tackle or left guard in addition to left tackle. There’s a very good chance that Albert isn’t their left tackle next year.

Scott Pioli comes from the Bill Belicheck school of positional value, as shown by his passing up on Aaron Curry, the superior prospect, for Tyson Jackson, who played a more valuable position, last year with the 3^rd pick. He has his “franchise quarterback.” Now he needs to protect him and Iowa OT Bryan Bulaga is the best available left tackle with Anthony Davis’ stock slipping after the combine.

Other possibilities:

S Eric Berry- Scott Pioli loves positional value, but he may not be able to resist Berry.

3-4 DE Gerald McCoy- McCoy is both a top prospect and also would fill their positional value qualifications. However, taking McCoy would probably mean moving Dorsey, but they’ve done weirder things before.

6. Seattle Seahawks 5-11

The Seahawks have quite a tough choice here between Gerald McCoy and Eric Berry. It is very tough for me to mock this pick because I don’t know what kind of drafters their new regime will be, so I’ll just go with what I would do and take the prospect with the higher positional value. That would be Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy who would breathe new life into their run defense as well as their pass rush.

Other possibilities:

S Eric Berry- Berry and McCoy are going to be 1-2 on their draft board, but I’m not sure in which order.

QB Jimmy Clausen- They spent a ton of money on Charlie Whitehurst, but they may find it hard to pass on Clausen, who would fit the scheme perfectly.

7. Cleveland Browns 5-11

The Browns would love to be able to move up for a quarterback and I won’t completely rule that out. Detroit might want to move down here to take either Eric Berry or Trent Williams and get multiple 2^nd and 3^rd round picks out of it, but I would bet against it because teams rarely trade up into the top 3. The Browns will have to just wait until the later rounds to take a quarterback and go with by far the best overall player, Tennessee S Eric Berry.

Other possibilities:

QB Jimmy Clausen- Mike Holmgren has said he wishes he liked Clausen more. Who knows what that means or if he’s telling the truth.

RLB Jason Pierre Paul- He’s a risk, but is seen as a guy who could be the best player from this draft class in 5 years. They need playmakers on defensive so they might not be able to resist.

WR Dez Bryant- If they pass on Clausen, they’ll likely target Colt McCoy in the 2^nd. Bryant would be a reach, but Holmgren may feel it necessary to surround McCoy with as many options as he can in order for him to succeed.

8. Oakland Raiders 5-11

Maryland OT Bruce Campbell ran a 4.85 at 6-6 314 at the Combine. He also benched 34 reps of 225 pounds and had 36 ¼ inch arms. This makes him the greatest offensive lineman of all time in Al Davis’ mind, even greater than Robert Gallery. If Davis thought he was getting a good deal with Gallery at 2 in 2004 (over guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger), then imagine how thrilled he’ll be when he sees Campbell still available at 8.

Other possibilities:

S Taylor Mays- He doesn’t fill a need, but Al Davis may find it hard to pass on his 6-3 230 4.31 measurables

DE Jason Pierre Paul- He doesn’t fill a need, but Al Davis may find it hard to pass on his 6-5 270 4.64 measurables.

9. Buffalo Bills 6-10

New regimes mean new quarterbacks unless there’s already an established guy in place, which there is not in Buffalo. The Bills reportedly are very interested in Tim Tebow, but that doesn’t mean they’ll pass up a pro ready safer pick like Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen in the first to take Tebow in the 2^nd. It could, but not necessarily. Clausen is the quarterback who gives them the best chance to win right away and longterm and hopefully they realize that.

Other possibilities:

NT Dan Williams- They may feel it necessary to take a nose tackle before they’re all gone and if they are targeting Tebow in the 2^nd, they may pass on Clausen for Williams.

OT Anthony Davis- They have made it clear they want a left tackle, but Davis is a bit of a reach.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9

The Jaguars will try to trade down here in an attempt to get a 2^nd rounder and draft Tim Tebow, but with the Steelers resigning Larry Foote, I can’t see anyone wanting to move up that badly. Instead, the Jaguars will probably try to trade up into the 2^nd and go defense here. After Aaron Kampman trade they aren’t tied to the defensive end position here. Florida CB Joe Haden would kill two birds with one stone. He would fill their need at cornerback and be a huge upside guy in their zone scheme and he would also help sell tickets being local from the University of Florida.

Other possibilities:

DE Derrick Morgan- Morgan could be best available in their eyes and that may convince them to take him over the local kid.

WR Dez Bryant- Bryant would give this offense the wow factor that could attract fans.

DE Jason Pierre Paul- JPP is the upside guy and they may find him hard to pass on.

QB Tim Tebow- If they feel they can’t trade back into the 2^nd, or that someone will take him in the late 1^st, they might take Tebow here.

11. Denver Broncos 8-8 (via CHI)

After they traded Marshall to the Dolphins, this pick became a wide receiver in many mocks. I will agree that a wide receiver is most likely here, but I am not too quick to say for sure that it’ll be Dez Bryant. Remember, Brandon Marshall was traded because he’s a diva receiver and Dez Bryant has a reputation as a diva. Arrelious Benn makes some sense on some levels because he has good size, good upside, and lacks the diva tag than Dez has, but I will put Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant here for now, because the Broncos have scheduled a private workout with him and not Benn.

Other possibilities:

WR Arrelious Benn- If McDaniels is scared off by Bryant’s “character” issues, they could take Benn to fill their receiver need.

MLB Rolando McClain- Sadly, McDaniels may see Kyle Orton as the type of quarterback who doesn’t need good receivers and go defense.

NT Dan Williams- Also fills a defensive need if McDaniels doesn’t think taking an elite receiver is important.

12. Miami Dolphins 7-9

Rush linebacker and nose tackle are their two biggest needs going into the draft, but, while there are more rush linebackers prospects in this range available, Brandon Graham, Jason Pierre Paul, Derrick Morgan, than nose tackles, Dan Williams, there are also more rush linebacker prospects available when they pick in the 3rd, whereas most of the elite nose tackle prospects, if not all, will be off the board. I will assume Bill Parcells sees that and takes Tennessee NT Dan Williams.

Other possibilities:

RLB Jason Pierre Paul- They could get a rush linebacker in the 3^rd, but Bill Parcells may see JPP as a can’t miss guy.

RLB Derrick Morgan- Less likely, but Parcells may not want to pass on the most proven pass rusher in the draft after Joey Porter and Jason Taylor left town.

13. San Francisco 49ers 8-8

With Joe Haden off the board, the Niners aren’t going to go with a cornerback in the first round, unless they fall in love with Kyle Wilson, because this is a team that doesn’t reach. The Niners will certainly be thinking about both of their picks when they draft here. They won’t draft a guy at 13 that they feel will still be there at 17. Anthony Davis makes a lot of sense for them, give that they need a mauling right tackle with the upside to play left. Mike Singletary is a tough disciplinarian and will feel can bring the most out of Davis. He will almost certainly be one of the two picks if Trent Williams is off the board.

As for their other pick, there are 4 options, given cornerback is out of the question. They can go best available with CJ Spiller, though he doesn’t fill a huge need. They can go with a safety, either Taylor Mays or Earl Thomas. Or they can go with the consensus best offensive lineman available, Mike Iupati and make him their guard of the future. If it is going to be a safety, it’ll be Mays. They love Mays and I think they have him rated higher than Thomas. Spiller is interesting, but I think they’ll feel they can get a similar player in the 2^nd round with Dexter McCluster. That leaves Mays and Iupati and I think Mays allows this team to do more of what they want, stop the run.

So, their two picks will be Anthony Davis and Taylor Mays, but in what order? Seattle could take Mays at 14, especially after cutting Deon Grant, but I can’t see them taking Anthony Davis as he is nowhere near the type of player that fits their scheme. New York won’t take him and neither will Tennessee at 16, so this pick will be USC S Taylor Mays and Davis will go at 17.

Other possibilities:

OT Anthony Davis- They may fear Seattle taking him and pull the trigger on him here.

RB CJ Spiller- If they rate him as BPA, they could pull the trigger, even in the wake of the Ted Ginn deal.

S Earl Thomas- Sources tell me the Niners like Mays more than Thomas, but sources are occasionally wrong and Thomas makes sense.

14. Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (via DEN)

Patrick Kerney retired this week. He was their leader in sacks last year, so this already weak pass rush will get weaker without him. An offensive tackle makes sense here, but the Seahawks have an offensive line coach by the name of Alex Gibbs who has done good work with mid round offensive linemen so they are not tied to the position. Even if Lawrence Jackson pans out, they’ll need a defensive end opposite him and Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan makes the most sense here.

Other possibilities:

OT Charles Brown- Alex Gibbs feels he can wait to take a left tackle if necessary, but he may love Brown’s footwork. Brown has experience with coach Pete Carroll as well.

RB CJ Spiller- If they view him as BPA, they may take him even though Morgan fills more of a need and has more positional value.

15. New York Giants 8-8

The Giants reportedly are willing to move up to 10 to get Clemson RB CJ Spiller so they would be thrilled to be able to land him here at 15 without trading up. I don’t agree with the pick as I think he is too similar to Ahmad Bradshaw to be much help to them, but this is what I they will do, not should do.

Other possibilities:

MLB Sean Weatherspoon- Maybe their interest in Spiller is a smokescreen. In that case, Weatherspoon makes the most sense.

DE Jason Pierre Paul- They love pass rushers and may not be able to resist JPP.

16. Tennessee Titans 8-8

South Florida DE Jason Pierre Paul is the workout wonder of a defensive player the Titans will love. The Titans have a great defensive coaching squad and love to take high upside defensive players and bring their potential out, and it’s worked alright in the past. JPP fills their immediate and obvious need at defensive end.

Other possibilities:

CB Kyle Wilson- Cornerback is also a need and Wilson is the consensus top CB available

DE Carlos Dunlap- Dunlap also has nice measurables and plays defensive end

CB Devin McCourty- He’s not the consensus top CB, but he could be their top CB available because of his stronger measurables

 

17. San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (via CAR)

I pretty much already debated this pick at 13, but this pick will be either Anthony Davis or Mike Iupati and since Davis has more physical upside and plays a more needed and valuable position, this pick will be Rutgers OT Anthony Davis. He has character issues, but the Niners aren’t scared off by that. They’ll try to coach him up.

Other possibilities:

G Mike Iupati- Iupati doesn’t have Davis’ positional value, but he could be a higher rated offensive lineman and viewed as a can’t miss type of player

MLB Rolando McClain- Doesn’t fill a huge need, but Mike Singletary may love McClain’s upside as a former middle linebacker

RB Jahvid Best- Same idea as Spiller, add a burner to their offense, so the Niners may not be able to resist the local kid

18. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

The Steelers already have an amazing defense, but no reason why they couldn’t add a defensive stud like Alabama MLB Rolando McClain to the mix. James Farrior just turned 35 years old and doesn’t have many good year left in him at the middle linebacker positions. The Steelers and the Ravens have both had good defenses this decade, but the Steelers have lacked one thing the Ravens have, Ray Lewis. I’m not guaranteeing McClain will be the next Ray Lewis, but the premature comparisons are there and they certainly aren’t unreasonable. Even with veteran Larry Foote signed in the offseason, this still makes sense. The Steelers are known to take best available early in the draft, especially defensively.

Other possibilities:

S Earl Thomas- Fills more of a need, while still upgrading their defensive, but probably not their BPA

CB Kyle Wilson- Same as above only a different position with more positional value

G Mike Iupati- They don’t normally go for the offensive line early, but they need help there definitely and Iupati is the mauler type of offensive lineman they love

19. Atlanta Falcons 9-7

I’ve had Spiller here in recent weeks, but I think it’s against their philosophy to draft a luxury player when they still have holes at important positions such as defensive end. Mike Smith has only had 3 first round picks in his time in Atlanta, but he spent 2 of those on either a quarterback or a left tackle. With a hole at the important defensive end position, I think that will be the focus this year in the first if a player Mike Smith likes is available. Smith likes players with good work ethics and strong motors and Michigan DE Brandon Graham fits that hold. After 2.5 sacks in 3 years, it’s safe for the Falcons to write Jamaal Anderson, a former 8^th overall pick, off as a bust.

Other possibilities:

OLB Sean Weatherspoon- Doesn’t give them positional value like they like, but he is probably higher rated on their board and fills a need

DE Everson Griffen- More upside than Graham, but has a repuation for being a bit lazy and Mike Smith doesn’t like that.

20. Houston Texans 9-7

The Texans are one of the good young teams in the league, but they still don’t have that ball hawking defensive back. Luckily for them, this is a very deep safety class so they can take one here, such as Texas S Earl Thomas. Safety is by far the biggest need that Houston has and Thomas is the best safety available. Thomas has the hands and speed that none of Houston’s defensive backs right now really have right now. He also is from in state at the University of Texas.

Other possibilities:

CB Kyle Wilson- Also helps the secondary, but he’s a lesser rated prospect most likely, though he has more positional value

RB Jahvid Best- They’ve made it clear they want to add another running back to the mix and Best would be the best available at that position

RB Ryan Matthews- Matthews may be higher rated on their board because he can serve as an everydown back

21. Cincinnati Bengals 10-7

The Bengals proved by signing Matt Jones that they are not done taking chances on guys with character problems, even though the team played well last year. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, Cedric Benson looked like the MVP of the league before he got hurt and Larry Johnson helped the Bengals late last year when Benson was hurt and 2009 2^nd round pick Rey Maualuga who dropped for character reasons was in the running for defensive player of the year this season.

Florida DE Carlos Dunlap has an awful work ethic and recently was arrested for drunk driving, but those things are like turn ons to whoever if drafting for the Bengals. Antawn Odom is talented when healthy, but he rarely is so, assuming Michael Johnson doesn’t pan out, the Bengals still need a right end of the future and Dunlap, who has athleticism, 6-6 280 4.6, could be that guy if he straightens himself out. The signings of Matt Jones and Antonio Bryant make their need for a wide receiver lesser so I doubt they reach for one here.

Other possibilities:

TE Jermaine Gresham- They don’t like to take tight ends early, but Gresham is the type of player they may make an exception for

DT Jared Odrick- Charcter issues in past, check. Doesn’t fill a huge need or have Dunlap’s upside, but he may be higher rated on their board.

RB Jahvid Best- Sleeper idea, take a burner to open up their offense and spell Cedric Benson, who was way overworked last year

22. New England Patriots 10-7

The Patriots have 5 main needs and 4 picks in the first 2 rounds. Those needs are running back, wide receiver, tight end, 3-4 defensive end, and rush linebacker. Jermaine Gresham would probably be the best available player here and would fill their need at tight end, but this class has more depth at tight end than any of those other positions, plus tight end does not have that much positional value and the Patriots’ like positional value. I think they’ll pass on Gresham here, unless they are absolutely infatuated with him, and take Penn State 3-4 DE Jared Odrick who would probably be higher rated on their board. I have heard reports that several teams actually have top-20 pick grades on Odrick and 3-4 teams from the bottom of the first may move up into the top 20 to get him. I think he’ll be high on the Patriots board and they’ll be happy that they can still get him.

Other possibilities:

TE Jermaine Gresham- There is more depth at tight end than 3-4 defensive end in this class, but Gresham may be higher rated on their board

WR Arrelious Benn- Even with the signing of Torry Holt, they may want to add a future starting receiver type guy and Benn’s upside could intrigue them

RLB Sergio Kindle- Fills more of a need and has huge upside, but BB doesn’t like to draft rush linebackers early

23. Green Bay Packers 10-7

The Packers did a better job of protecting Rodgers since Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton have returned from injury, but both are in their 30s and could retire soon. Before those two were both healthy, Rodgers was sacked 37 times in 8 games. If Tauscher and Clifton retire and neither are replaced by then, Aaron Rodgers could actually die on the field. They need a good young tackle familiar with a zone blocking scheme and athletic enough to play in it. USC OT Charles Brown might be the best pure zone blocking tackle in this draft class and that will shoot him up draft boards like it did with former USC tackle Sam Baker in 2008.

Other possibilities:

CB Kyle Wilson- Left tackle is their biggest need, but Wilson may be higher on their board. Al Harris and Charles Woodson is both well on the wrong side of 30.

G Mike Iupati- He doesn’t fit their blocking scheme perfectly, but he could be BPA and upgrade their offensive line at the same time.

RLB Sergio Kindle- Because of his upside, they may view him as BPA and take him to compete with Brad Jones

24. Philadelphia Eagles 11-6

I don’t think this pick will take very long to take. The Eagles traded away Sheldon Brown with the intention of using this pick on a replacement, namely Boise State CB Kyle Wilson who, they are fortunate enough, is still available here. This is a strong cornerback class, but I think they’ll go with more of a proven commodity at the position over some of the raw 2^nd and 3^rd rounders.

Other possibilities:

OLB Sean Weatherspoon- They may see the depth of this cornerback class and wait a few of their picks to take a cornerback. In that class, Weatherspoon makes the most sense because he is BPA and fills their need on the strongside across from Ernie Sims.

CB Devin McCourty- McCourty may be higher on their board as a corner

DE Everson Griffen- Andy Reid loves to draft in the trenches and, with so many picks, may take a d-line project to develop early. Griffen’s upside may intrigue him.

25. Baltimore Ravens 10-8

The Ravens don’t have a ton of needs after signing Donte Stallworth, trading for Anquan Boldin, and resigning Derrick Mason. However, if they have the chance to take an elite over the middle target like Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham, they won’t be able to resist. They are huge fans of drafting best player available and that’s exactly what Gresham is at this point in the draft.

Other possibilities:

MLB Sean Weatherspoon- Weatherspoon is probably BPA on their board and fills a future need at 3-4 middle linebacker, even though he doesn’t fit the scheme perfectly

NT Terrence Cody- They may want to move Kelly Gregg to the outside, which would force them to take a nose tackle at some point. Cody could be that guy.

CB Devin McCourty- Cornerback is also a need and McCourty’s upside could be intriguing.

26.  Arizona Cardinals 11-7

Karlos Dansby left as a free agent to sign in Miami so add middle linebacker to their list of offseason needs, which is surprisingly long for a playoff team like Arizona. They’ll probably just take best available at a position of need and Missouri MLB Sean Weatherspoon is that. He fits what they do really well because he can play both a 3-4 and a 4-3 and the Cardinals run a hybrid 3-4/4-3 scheme.

Other possibilities:

RLB Jerry Hughes- Rush linebacker has more positional value and is more of a need, though Weatherspoon is the clear BPA

RLB Sergio Kindle- Hughes is more of a safer pick at rush linebacker, but Kindle has the upside which could be intriguing for the Cardinals who have their pass rush set for the next 1-2 years

NT Terrence Cody- They are a nose tackle away from being able to move full time to a 3-4

27. Dallas Cowboys 12-6

I don’t think the Cowboys, needing upgrades all across their offensive line will pass on Idaho G Mike Iupati. All of their starting offensive lineman are over 30 and their lack of depth was very evident in their playoff loss to the Vikings. Iupati has the size that the Cowboys love in an offensive lineman. The faces of the once asleep Dallas Cowboys’ scouts perked up majorly at the Senior Bowl when Iupati’s name was announced at the weigh in. He makes too much sense here.

Other possibilities:

NT Terrence Cody- Ratliff needs to move to the outside and if they feel that is true, they could take Cody here.

S Nate Allen- Rumors say the Cowboys love Allen and could take him in the first even with the strength of this class at safety

OT Roger Saffold- Saffold has the most positional value and would make their offense the most Romo friendly, but he doesn’t have the size they like at tackle and would be a bit of a reach anyway

28. San Diego Chargers 13-4

I’ve had Ryan Matthews here in recent weeks, but after the Charlie Whitehurst trade, in which they were able to move up to the 40^th pick from the 60^th, that looks less likely. They can still get Ryan Matthews at 40, or at least there’s a good chance they can, but Alabama NT Terrence Cody won’t be available there and they need him after releasing Jamal Williams. Even if Matthews is gone, they can take a guy like Ben Tate or Montario Hardesty in the 3^rd and still get a fairly decent running back.

Other possibilities:

RB Ryan Matthews- If they feel they can’t take Matthews at 40, they may take him here

NT Linval Joseph- They’ve done weirder things before. Joseph could be their highest rated NT

29. New York Jets 11-8

After trading for Santonio Holmes, the Jets really only are an elite pass rusher away from being a Super Bowl winning team, assuming Mark Sanchez continues his development. The Jets will probably be targeting a guy like RLB TCU Jerry Hughes here at 29, because I think they are tired of waiting order for Vernon Gholston to pan out.

Other possibilities:

RLB Sergio Kindle- Kindle is the upside pick at rush linebacker

3-4 DE Brian Price- Price may be BPA and fills a need, even though he wouldn’t quite fit the scheme

30. Minnesota Vikings 13-5

The Vikings seem to be set for the future on the offensive end, with the exception of quarterback, but I doubt the Vikings would reach a quarterback in this situation, especially since all of the quarterbacks available here could be there when they pick in the 2^nd round. Defensively, they have a few issues that need to be filled. This team is built upon their defensive line’s ability to stuff the run. Pat Williams will turn 37 in October and the Vikings need to bulk up their line and their depth at the defensive tackle position. They can’t afford to lose their biggest strength, so they take a high upside defensive tackle here, in UCLA DT Brian Price, who can come in, learn from the Williamses, and hopefully be able to take Pat’s place when he moves on. Price is an amazing pass rusher for his size and would fill Pat’s old pass rushing tackle role nicely. He should be able to capitalize on his 7 sacks this season and get drafted in the first round as the 3^rd defensive tackle off the board.

Other possibilities:

QB Tim Tebow- If they view Tebow as a guy that can be a starting quarterback in 2011, they may have to pull the trigger

G Maurkice Pouncey- Their running game could be even better with a strong upgrade inside and Pouncey can play all 3 interior positions

CB Devin McCourty- They may feel they’ll take another cornerback to keep up with the Saints

31. Indianapolis Colts 16-3

The Colts always seem to ignore defensive needs for offensive needs in the first round and this year probably won’t be an exception. Florida G Maurkice Pouncey is really gaining a lot of hype around the mock draft community, going as high as 18 to Pittsburgh at some places. Nonetheless, I would not be surprised if he went here. He could start at guard from them sometime next year and eventually be Jeff Saturday’s replacement at center. I don’t love him as much as most places do, but then again, the Colts will be making this pick and not me.

Other possibilities:

OT Roger Saffold- Saffold helps their offensive line and has more positional value, but may be more of a reach

DE Everson Griffen- He could be BPA and would fill what would probably be a need next offseason

32. New Orleans Saints 16-3

The Saints just cut Charles Grant, his large contract, and his larger gut. While it was the right move, it leaves them very thin on the left side of their defensive line opposite Will Smith, at end, and Sedrick Ellis, at tackle. I would be very surprised if two of their first 3 picks were focused on getting an upgrade at left defensive tackle and left defensive end. Here they take left defensive end because of who’s left on the board and go with USC DE Everson Griffen. Griffen has major upside, but also major downside, but the Saints can afford to take a risk after winning the Super Bowl and defensive genius coordinator Gary Williams will probably think he can bring the most out of him (and he’d probably be right).

Other possibilities:

OLB Sergio Kindle- An interesting weapon for their defense, he could be used like Brian Orakpo was in Washington last year

S Nate Allen- There are reportedly about a handful of teams that have given him a first round grade and if the Saints are one of those, they may take him to replace Darren Sharper.

 

Now check out what I think should happen

Or check out other mock drafts

Or make your own

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Well I guess we know why the Cowboys didn’t address the cornerback position early in the 2011 NFL Draft, despite Terence Newman’s age (33 in September), Terrence Newman’s struggles in 2010, and poor play from the nickel back slot in 2010. The Cowboys obviously didn’t see their play from the nickel back slot as poor. In fact, they saw nickel cornerback, Orlando Scandrick, as a future starter and replacement for Terence Newman, who is owed 21 million over the next 3 years after the 2011 season and could be cut next offseason.

Scandrick, a 2008 5^th round pick out of Boise State, who is going into his 4^th season and would have been an unrestricted free agent after the 2011 season, was given a 5 year 27 million dollar extension worth 10 million in guarantees today. To me, that makes no sense. Scandrick had the 9^th highest quarterback rating against of any cornerback who played more than 25% of his teams snap last season.

He allowed 53 catches on 77 targets for 530 yards and 7 touchdowns to just 1 interception, good for a quarterback rating allowed of 113.0. Keep in mind, he was doing this as a nickel cornerback, lining up against the opponent’s slot receiver, in every game except for 1 last season. I have no idea why they view him as a future starter and why they gave him 27 million over 5 years. No one out there would have given him anywhere near that had he tested the market next offseason. Even if he does become a solid starter for them, they at least jumped the gun on this extension.

Grade: F

By Packrphan 

Coming off a heartbreaking — and injury-riddled — loss in overtime to the Washington Redskins, the Green Bay Packers this week are probably going to be spending as much time getting medical evaluations as practicing. 

The Pack limped into the game already having a couple starters lost for the season, namely RB Ryan Grant and S Morgan Burnett, while a decision about season-ending wrist surgery is still in the air concerning LB Nick Burnett (and just for good measure, let’s remember Justin Harrell, as well, while we’re on the subject). A few other players were out for the game, including RT Mark Tauscher, LB Brandon Chillar, S Sam Shields, and FB Quinn Johnson. 

By the end of the game, they had lost TE Jermichael Finley (possibly for 2-3 weeks…and that’s the optimistic view!), TE Donald Lee, DE Ryan Pickett, LB Clay Matthews, CB and special teams demon Derrick Martin (may be the most serious with an ankle injury), and LB Frank Zombo. 

Oh yes, let’s not forget the concussion which QB Aaron Rodgers sustained supposedly on his last throw (intercepted) where he clearly had head-to-head contact from the defender (with no flag at all, of course…just like the blow to the head no-call in the playoff game loss at Arizona). So in order for Rodgers to be available for the upcoming game against Miami, he’s going to have to clear a number of tests before he gets the OK to play. 

Ryan Pickett was quoted as saying, “I’ve not been part of anything like this that so many guys are injured…It’s never been this bad. I’ve never experienced it in my 10 years.” 

The bottom line right now is that a team which many picked to go not only to but to win the Super Bowl based upon its talented roster now seems like it’s on life support. The injuries are everywhere. Not what you want as you head into one of the toughest stretches of the schedule: Dolphins, ViQueens, Jets, and Cowgirls. It’s a month before the Packers get their bye week. And, even without any other players going down, the Pack might be hard pressed to win another game before that bye week. 

Yes, injuries played a big part in yesterday’s loss by the Packers. You can’t lose two of your top playmakers — Finley and Matthews — and not have it affect the outcome. But the Packers just left too many opportunities on the field. Failing to push it into the endzone when you have  1st and goal from the 2-yard line, with a chance to go up 14-0 early, just left the door open for the ‘skins to hang around. It never should have come down to K Mason Crosby needing to hit a 53-yarder at the close of regulation to win that game. Never. Yes, he was 2 of 4 on the day and needs to make those kicks. But the Pack also needs to convert 3rd downs — they didn’t — and not give their opponent multiple 1st downs through penalties. 

And when, oh when, will the Packers ever get their special teams together?! 

The consistent pattern we see emerging in and across games is not the pattern we want to see: fast start, followed by tailing off in the second half, little to no commitment to the running game by head coach Mike McCarthy, and continued penalties and lapses at critical junctures of a game. 

Yes, as the players say, they feel they should be 5-0 right now instead of 3-2. But truth be told, they could also just as easily be 1-4 right now. The Buffalo game was the only game that has been a complete, or nearly complete, game by this team. By the time you hit game #5 of the schedule you should know who you are and what you can do and do it in a consistent way. The Packers just aren’t. 

Granted, the injuries started taking their toll early and often this season on the Pack. And now, it’s gotten even worse. The prognosis for the immediate future is not a good one. There are still 11 games remaining. But it’s possible, given the injuries let alone other problems which seem to be plaguing this team, that the Packers could go into their bye week at 3-6. They would likely have to win out in order to have a shot at the playoffs. And that’s not a position in which you wish to find yourself. 

The mettle of this team, coaching staff and management is going to be tested this week and over the coming month. The Packers’ season could very well be riding on what happens in these next four games.

http://PackerFansUnited.com 

 

The Patriots went 14-2 in the regular season, but failed to win a playoff game. Does that make this season a disappointment? Yes, and no, On one hand, when you win 14 games, if you fall on your faces in your first playoff game, it hurts, especially against a divisional rival. However, this team wasn’t even supposed to win 14 games in the first place.

Coming into the season, all the talk was about how Tom Brady is washed up and not as competitive as he was before, and about how this defense was too young and inexperienced, especially after both Leigh Bodden and Ty Warren went down in the preseason. There was talk that the Jets might even win this division. Though they didn’t win a playoff game, they still proved that they were consistently the best team in this division. The Jets may have won 2 of 3, but the Patriots still won the division by 3 games.

Even better, they should be even more dangerous next year. Ty Warren and Leigh Bodden are back. Their young defensive players will get more experienced. They have 3 of the first 33 picks in the draft, 4 of the first 60, 5 of the first 74, 6 of the first 88, as well as the Broncos 2^nd pick in the 4^th round. They still have Brady and Belicheck and they have more bulliten board material, which is what really motivates them. If you don’t think this team is going to spend the entire offseason motivated by “28-21,” you don’t know Brady and Belicheck.

So yes, a Super Bowl title would have been nice for this team this year, but they exceeded expectations greatly and they can be even tougher in 2010. It’s tough to call this a disappointing season when so many expected them to win 10-11 games and be looking up at the Jets going into 2011. That’s not where they are now. And as for Tom Brady losing 3 straight playoff games, Montana did that once too, and he was pretty good.

 

QB RB WR TE OT G C NT DT 3-4 DE DE RLB OLB MLB CB S K P

Updated: 4/3/10

Scoring System 

100 Once in a decade prospect 

95-99 Elite talent 

90-95 Solid top 10 pick 

85-90 Solid first round pick 

80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 

75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 

70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 

65-70 3rd-4th round pick 

60-65 4th-5th round pick 

55-60 5th round pick 

50-55 6th round pick 

45-50 7th round pick 

40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 

30-40 Career practice squader 

20-30 No NFL future 

0-20 No football future 

1. Matt Dodge (East Carolina) 53

A punter with a massive leg, averaging 45.8 yards per punt this years, and 40+ yards per punt in 3 seasons of his career. He has still managed to pin a ton of kicks inside the 20, pinning 68 of his 220 kicks inside the 20 over the last 3 years. He also has nailed several punts of 70 or more yards, something no one else in this class can say.

2. Zoltan Mesko (Michigan) 51

Probably the biggest punter in the world at 6-5 238, he’s also consistent as well averaging 41.6 yards per punt, 41.1 yards per punt, 43.0 yards per punt, and 44.5 yards per punt in his 4 year career at Michigan.

3. Robert Malone (Fresno State) 48

One of the nations leading punter this year, with a 45.2 yards per punt average despite pinning 17 of 44 within the 20. He averaged 42.8 in 2008.

4. Jeremy Boone (Penn State) 44

Averaged 43.0, 43.0, and 43.3 yards per punt over the last 3 years, so you can say he’s consistent. 61 of 151 within the 20 is extremely impressive, over 40%!

5. Brent Bowden (Virginia Tech) 40

Averaged 43.8 yards per punt this year, but only 42.2 for his career, and never punted one longer than 60 yards, so his leg isn’t the stronger. It is accurate though as he has pinned 72 of 214 within 20 yards in his career, about 34%.

 

By Vince Vitale

The St. Louis Rams signed tight end Darcy Johnson due to Michael Hoomanawanui’s ankle injury which is expected to keep him out at least a month. Darcy Johnson was with the Rams through training camp but was released during the last cuts. Johnson was previously with the New York Giants for three years where he totaled 9 catches for 78 yards. The Rams dropped defensive tackle Jermelle Cudjo to open a roster spot for Johnson. This move seems a little strange since the Rams kept 4 tight ends on the roster to start the season and they still have three healthy ones remaining. If Fendi Onobun was good enough to make the roster than he needs to be good enough to play when needed. We will see how this move pans out for the St. Louis Rams.

http://www.stlouisramfan.com/ 

 

By Derek Arnold 

On Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium, the Ravens honored the 2000 Super Bowl team with a “homecoming” of sorts.

Maybe they should have let those guys play a bit. Even though most of them haven’t stepped foot on a field in nearly a decade, they certainly couldn’t have been any worse than the current Ravens were yesterday.

I’m pretty sure Tony Siragusa could have plugged up the middle and slowed down Buffalo’s rushing game more aptly than Haloti Ngata, Kelly Gregg, and co. were able to.

I’m fairly certain that Duane Starks would have held his own against the Bills’ wide receivers better than Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb did.

And I’m damn positive that Kim Herring could have stepped in and given Dawan Landry an absolute clinic on how to make a tackle.

On a day when members of the greatest defense of all time were in the house, the Ravens did little to make the former Super Bowl champs proud.

The Buffalo Bills came into Baltimore and ran roughshod over the Ravens’ defense, doing pretty much anything they wanted to all afternoon. They entered the game averaging just 251 yards of total offense per game, and had more than doubled that output (506 total yards of offense) by the time Billy Cundiff’s 38-yard field goal gave the Ravens the 37-34 victory. In overtime. Against, of all teams, the freaking Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo also sported the worst 3rd-down conversion percentage in the NFL entering the game. At the end of the day, one of the two teams was just 2/11 on 3rd downs, while the other was a stout 11/17 on their way to holding the ball for more than 38 minutes. The latter, of course, however inexplicably, was the Bills.

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick put an end to the Bills league-worst 58 consecutive games without a 300-yard passer, and did so emphatically; he threw for 374 yards and FOUR touchdowns. Not to be outdone, receivers Lee Evans and Stevie Johnson ended Bills streaks of their own, as each surpassed 100 yards receiving, something no Buffalo Bill had managed in 11 games.

Not that it was a complete aerial assualt – Buffalo also put up 132 yards on the ground for the day.

And yet…as bleak a picture as all of those numbers paint – not only on the day, but moving forward as well – the Ravens still eked out the win.

It was up to the offense to bail the defense out yesterday, and Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin, Todd Heap, and company were up to the challenge. Finding themselves in a 24-10 hole after Evans’ second touchdown with 5 minutes remaining in the first half, the Ravens’ offense – with an assist from the great Ed Reed (more on him later) – ripped off 17 points in just 71 seconds of game clock to take a 27-24 lead.

The final 7 of that 17 came on a beautiful flea flicker, a play that I would bet the Ravens haven’t hit on in at least five years. From the Buffalo 34, Joe Flacco handed to Willis McGahee, who lateraled back to Flacco, and Joe launched a gorgeous touchdown rainbow to Anquan Boldin.

While Joe didn’t have his best day, he made enough plays to win the game. He connected on just 16 of his 31 throws, but the ones he did hit, he made count: 250 yards through the air was the final result, with three touchdown strikes of 26, 14, and 34 yards.

Ed Reed. The man just makes plays. Even though Reed looked a half-step slow at times during the day, his uncanny nose for the football just will not be suppressed. On the Bills’ first series, when it looked like they were about to pick up a 3rd-and-8 from the Ravens’ 32, Reed came up and put his helmet right on the ball, jarring it free from wideout Roscoe Parrish. The Ravens didn’t recover, but Buffalo lost 12 yards on the play, and the ensuing punt set the Ravens’ up to take their short-lived 3-0 lead. On Buffalo’s very first snap of the second half, Reed, off a tipped pass from Ray Lewis, intercepted Fitzpatrick to set up the aforementioned flea flicker score. And, at the end of the third, with the Ravens holding a 34-24 lead, just a single play after he came up a little lame and CBS analyst Steve Beuerlein noted that Reed looked a little slow, #20 AGAIN intercepted Fitzpatrick, this time returning the pick 40 yards to the Buffalo nine.

That play should have effectively won the game for the Ravens. Unfortunately, Willis McGahee and Joe Flacco botched the handoff on the ensuing snap, and gave the ball right back to the Bills. Instead of a 17-point lead early in the fourth quarter, the defense was faced for the second straight week with a 10 point lead at the same juncture in the ball game. And, just like in New England last week, they would cave.

Buffalo put together a 63-yard touchdown drive and a 59-yard field goal drive – the latter starting at their own 9 yard line with just 3:26 to go in the game – in the fourth quarter, while the Ravens managed just a single first down in the final period. It’s distressing that just a week after blowing a fourth quarter lead, both units – offense and defense – again choked when given the chance to put the game away.

Facing the worst run defense in the league, and having gained nearly 5 yards per carry all day, the Ravens’ fourth quarter play selection was the following:

1st drive: Run (fumble)

2nd drive: Pass (incomplete), Run (6 yards), Pass (1 yard), Punt

3rd drive: Pass (incomplete), Pass (36 yards), Run (1 yard), Run (3 yards), Pass (incomplete), Punt

And in overtime (the drive that didn’t START in field goal range): Run (5 yards), Pass (incomplete), Pass (sack), Punt

Five runs, seven passes.

Now, some will argue that Cam Cameron was just doing exactly what Ravens fans were blasting him for NOT doing after last week’s New England loss – that is, being aggressive and not “going conservative.” To those people, I’d offer this rebuttal: the difference is, in both instances, Cam went AWAY from what was working. Last week in New England, it was the intermediate passing game that was having success – and in the fourth quarter the Ravens decided they were going to play it safe. Against Buffalo – again, the WORST run defense in the league – Ray Rice was having a fairly good day and Willis McGahee was outstanding (besides the fumble), averaging nearly six yards per carry. Add in that Flacco, as mentioned earlier, was erratic on the day (he should have been intercepted at least once, if not twice), and the decision to skew the playcalling towards the pass in the fourth quarter and overtime becomes even more perplexing.

I suppose I just don’t understand NFL playcalling. I’ll leave it at that for now, so I don’t drive myself insane.

Two additional points I’d be remiss not to address: First up, Ray Lewis. With his former teammates watching, is it any surprise that #52 would say, “enough of this bullshit, we’re not losing,” and just straight up maul the football from Bills tight end Shawn Nelson? Make no mistake about it, Ray won the game with that play, as the Ravens had very little hope of stopping the offensive juggernaut that stole the Buffalo Bills’ jerseys and wore them in Baltimore.

The second point, which piggybacks right off of that one – the officials. I’ve complained about the refereeing enough on this blog over the years that I’d be quite hypocritical to not acknowledge that the Ravens were aided monumentally at least once yesterday by the guys’ in stripes. So, referee Pete Morelli and crew: thank you for not blowing the whistle on that play.

In fairness, former NFL VP of Officiating Mike Pereira says the refs made the right call.

The other curious ruling came two plays before Flacco found Heap to pull the Ravens to within 24-20 at the half. Flacco had appeared to have found Bills cornerback Reggie Corner (great career choice BTW Reggie!) for an interception that would have kep the deficit at 11 points at the break. However, luckily, Corner was ruled out of bounds even after review – and Boldin was not flagged for offensive pass interference (though either player could have been called for P.I.)

The Ravens have problems on both sides of the ball, and on special teams, and we’ll get into those problems deeper here during the bye week. But for now, let’s just thank our lucky (after yesterday, that word bears repeating) stars that the Ravens go into the off date at 5-2 and right where they need to be…record-wise, anyway.

http://www.bmorebirdsnest.com/

Go back to Ravens Fan Spot 

 

Quarterback

I feel like this doesn’t even need to be said, but the Redskins cannot start Rex Grossman or John Beck at quarterback next year, unless they want to go 5-11 again. The Redskins are always aggressive in the offseason, so expect them to either sign Peyton Manning or trade up for Robert Griffin.

Wide Receiver

Santana Moss managed just 46 catches for 584 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. Sure, they had quarterback problems and he missed 4 games, but he’s also a declining player. Turning 33 this offseason, I don’t think he’s capable of being a #1 guy any more. Jabar Gaffney had a solid year last year, but is probably best off as a #2 receiver. They drafted Leonard Hankerson in the 3^rd round last year, but he tore his labrum in his hip after one good game. He’s no sure thing going forward so if a receiver makes sense, I expect them to take one fairly early, especially if they take a quarterback in the first round. Teams that draft quarterbacks in the first round often draft a pass catcher with their next pick. Meanwhile, if they sign Peyton Manning, they would also be the top contender to sign Reggie Wayne.

Middle Linebacker

London Fletcher continues to defy age, playing at a Pro Bowl caliber level even though he turns 37 this offseason. However, he won’t be around forever. In fact, he’s a free agent this offseason. Even if he’s resigned, they need a successor for him inside next to the promising young Perry Riley.

Guard

Right guard Chris Chester really disappointed in his first season with the team after getting a sizable contract in the offseason. Meanwhile, left guard Kory Lichtensteiger was playing well before he tore both his ACL and MCL. He’s expected to be ready for week 1, but obviously he’s no sure thing after a major injury. Maurice Hurt was decent at best in his absence. Mike Shanahan has always had good offensive lines so this could be a priority of his this offseason.

Cornerback

DeAngelo Hall continues to be one of the best overrated and overpaid cornerbacks in the league. Meanwhile, nickelback Kevin Barnes struggled last year. Given how frequently 3 wide receiver sets are being used in the NFL, they probably want more cornerback depth.

Safety

The safety position is a major question mark for them next season. Reed Doughty struggled last season, especially in coverage. LaRon Landry is better, but he’s a free agent with questionable long term health. They need someone else in the mix.

 

Offensive Tackle

Trent Williams is a promising young player when he’s not being suspended for marijuana use. However, right tackle Jammal Brown really struggled last year. He hasn’t been the same since a major injury in 2009. They signed him to a large contract and are expected to keep him at right tackle next year, but they probably want someone to push him at the very least.

Center

Will Montgomery is a mediocre player at center. This is another place where they could look for an upgrade on their offensive line. They should find at least competition in the mid to late rounds or in free agency.

3-4 Defensive End

The Redskins’ two big money signings on their defensive line, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield, played pretty well this season on their 3 man defensive line. Adam Carriker was the weak line on the line. He wasn’t awful or anything, but he could be upgraded. He’s also a free agent. Jarvis Jenkins was their 2^nd round pick last year so if he’s healthy, he could be the guy here.