When Porter is healthy, he’s a great #2 cornerback. He had a great 2009 season, allowing just 55.0% completion, 7.1 YPA, and no touchdowns with 4 interceptions. Among cornerbacks who played more than 60% of their team’s snaps, he ranked 6^th in QB rating allowing, with a 56.8. He’s struggled some over the past 2 seasons, especially this season when he ranked 91^st on ProFootballFocus.

However, he hasn’t had a good pass rush in front of him and there have been some injuries. This is a nice, cheap bounce back contract for 4 million over a year and he’s almost definitely an upgrade over Andre Goodman, who is getting older at 34 this offseason. Porter is still young (26 in August) and an athletic cornerback with huge upside. This was a savvy move.

Grade: A

 

() FA Rank

QB Tarvaris Jackson

RB Albert Young

FB Naufahu Tahi 

WR Sidney Rice (#10)

Only had one good season, after developing in his first 2 years and getting hurt last season, but he did catch 83 passes for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2009 and he’s still only 25 in September.

WR Jaymar Johnson- resigned

WR Greg Lewis

WR Hank Baskett

OT Ryan Cook

DT Pat Williams 

DT Fred Evans

DE Ray Edwards (#25)

How will he do without Jared Allen and the Williams Wall? We may find out this offseason. The Vikings seem prepared to let Edwards, who has 16.5 sacks in the last 2 seasons and who dominated in their run to the NFC Championship game in 2009, walk this offseason. I have my doubts about him as a #1 pass rusher, but I have a feeling someone will overpay him.

DE Brian Robison- resigned 3 years 14.1 million 

OLB Chad Greenway (#16)- franchised 

Greenway was all over the place last year with 144 tackles, good for 4^th most in the league. He has 463 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 4 seasons.

OLB Ben Leber 

MLB Erin Henderson

CB Lito Sheppard

CB Frank Walker

S Husain Abdullah

S Tyrell Johnson

S Eric Frampton

K Ryan Longwell

Offseason moves:

Resigned Brian Robinson

Resigned Jaymar Johnson

Franchised Chad Greenway

Draft 

 

Week 12 Pickups 

Last week overall: 10-6

Last week ATS: 11-5 (+840/+18%)

Overall picks: 156-84 (.650)

ATS Picks: 127-106-7 (+$2450)

Lock picks: 11-5

Upset picks: 30-33 (+1423)

Week 16 recap: Last week I snapped a 3 week streak of being in the red, making $840, or 18%, which, against a 10% juice, is pretty good. However, I was actually disappointed. I started the week 8-1 straight up (losing by 1 picking the Cowboys) and 8-1 ATS, nailing 20 of my first 23 units.

However, I struggled in the second half of the week. 11-5 ATS is very strong, especially with the amount of money I made, but the 10-6 straight up record was not what I was looking for. I nailed my 5 unit pick (Washington +7 over Jacksonville) and split my two 4 units losing Seattle +6 over Tampa Bay and winning Detroit +3.5 over Miami.  

With my upset picks, I earned $325, going 3-2 with my upset picks. I lost with the Seahawks over Buccaneers and Giants over Packers, but won with Washington (+250) over Jacksonville, Detroit (+165) over Miami, and Denver (+130) over Houston.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 17

Spread: Atlanta -14.5

Pick against spread: Carolina 2 units (-220)

Last week I bet three on the Panthers to cover as large underdogs citing the Steelers inability to win games by large margins. The Panthers lost 27-3, losing against the spread by 9.5 points. This week, I am betting on the Panthers again as large underdogs, citing the Falcons inability to win games by large margins. However, I do have more reasons and I’m not betting three again on a team as terrible as the Panthers.

The Falcons have only won 4 games by 15 or more this season. One of those was against the Panthers in Carolina, but this time should be different. Last week was the biggest game in the Matt Ryan era for the Falcons and they lost. Now they have to play a lowly Panthers team a mere 6 days later with the playoffs locked up and a first round bye and homefield all but locked up. I doubt they show much energy, instead looking forward to the playoffs.

Unlike the Steelers game, this is a division rivalry. The Panthers do well in same season revenge games in the John Fox era, 8-4 ATS, and typically division rivalries are closer than most games. If this team can hang within 2 of a deflated Saints team week 4 (coming off a home loss to the Falcons) in New Orleans, they can hang within 15 of the Falcons this week.

Also, while the Falcons will have 6 days to prepare for the Panthers, the Panthers will have 10 off of Thursday Night Football. Thursday Night Football losers are 6-2 ATS the next week this year. It also helps that the Panthers have already locked up the #1 draft pick. Playing hard won’t hurt them this week. I won’t bet three this week, but I do like Carolina’s chances to keep this within 2 scores. Finally, another trend, double digit favorites off of a loss are 35-62 ATS since 2002. I know I cited this against Pittsburgh last week, but it’s still a strong trend.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 17

Spread: Pittsburgh -6

Pick against spread: Cleveland 2 units (-220)

What happened to Colt McCoy? He looked like the second coming of Steve Young before he went down with his injury. Since returning, he’s lost to the Bengals and thrown 3 picks in a 10 point loss to the Ravens. I can only assume he is still not 100% or perhaps that he has hit a rookie wall. Nonetheless, he could continue to struggle this week against the Steelers.

The Ravens were 3.5 points favorites in Cleveland last week, but the Steelers are now 6 point favorites in Cleveland, which I don’t get. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are two very evenly matched teams as shown by the fact that both of their games were very close, so I see no reason why Pittsburgh is favored by more than 4 here, especially considering the Ravens didn’t exactly blow out the spread last week.

In fact, the Ravens did only win 20-10 despite the 3 picks. I don’t think McCoy will be picked off 3 times again this week, especially since the Steelers are expected to rest Troy Polamalu again. The Steelers’ offense has had trouble scoring in recent weeks (with the exception of the Carolina game) and has been especially bad on the road.

Because of this, they haven’t won a lot of games by large margins on the road, with their last road win by 7+ coming week 3 in Tampa Bay. Also keep in mind, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are a mere 5-13 ATS as road favorites since Tomlin took over as head coach. I moderately like McCoy and the Browns’ chances this week to keep this one close.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 20

Spread: Detroit -3

Pick against spread: Detroit 1 unit (+100)

The Vikings didn’t look half bad on Tuesday Night Football, beating the Eagles and rediscovering their pass rush in the process. Luckily for them, the Lions struggle to protect their quarterback so they could get a few more sacks this week. Brett Favre is expected to get the start this week for Minnesota over Joe Webb who looked decent, but unspectacular against the Eagles last week. I still say they need a new QB in 2011.

The Lions are in an interesting position in this one. They’re favored. They’ve been favored a mere 10 times since the start of the 2006 season and they only covered in 3 of them. However, they didn’t deserve to be favored all that much until this season. They’re playing good football right now and are the better team in this one at home. They have the league’s best record ATS and are on a 3 game winning streak. It may only be for 1 unit, but I like the Lions in this one.

Green Bay Packers 28 Chicago Bears 20

Spread: Green Bay -10.5

Pick against spread: Chicago 1 unit (+100)

Chicago has clinched a first round bye with the Eagles loss to the Vikings on Tuesday. The only way Chicago can get different seed than the one they have now, #2, is if Atlanta loses to Carolina and New Orleans loses to Tampa Bay. I don’t think that combination is all that likely. 

That being said, Chicago might still play fairly hard in this one for several reasons. One, Green Bay is a division rival. Very rarely do you see a team just rollover and let a division rival win, especially win, if said division rival wins, they make the playoffs. The Bears aren’t going to roll over and let the Packers make the playoffs.

The second reason is, in addition to being a division rival, the Packers are also a scary opponent. I think the Bears would much rather the Giants or the Buccaneers sneak into the 6th seed than the Packers. This isn’t a team they want to face in the playoffs and beating them here would eliminate that possibility.

However, I’m still taking the Packers to win. They need this game more and they are the better team, but I find that spread slightly ridiculous. It assumes the Bears will just roll over this week. I’m taking the points for 1.  

New England Patriots 38 Miami Dolphins 17 Lock Pick

Spread: New England -3

Pick against spread: New England 6 units (+600)

This spread suggests that the Patriots will bench or limit their starters this week. I don’t know why. They never do. In fact, in the BB/Brady era, they are 7-2 week 17. Some say they will still rest because of what happened to Wes Welker week 17 last year (and the ensuing beatdown they suffered in the first round of the playoffs the next week). However, the Patriots clinched homefield after week 15. If they were going to rest their starters, why didn’t they last week up 20+ late against the Bills. BB and company haven’t changed.

Like the Bills, the Dolphins are a hated division rival, and even if they weren’t, this team would still give it their all. They almost always do, especially this year when it seems everyone on the team, especially Brady, has a chip on their shoulder. The only reason they didn’t against the Packers is because they saw they were expecting to play Aaron Rodgers and were so relieved to play Flynn instead that they forgot the Packers were good.

Even in the Packers game, they scored 30 points. In fact, the last time they didn’t score 30 was their last loss, week 9 in Cleveland. Going all out once again, I expect them to do the same this week. They’ve gashed defenses better than the Dolphins’ for 30+, including the Packers, Steelers, Jets, and Bears. No one can stop them. The Dolphins and their 14^th ranked pass defense won’t be able to. I can’t see the Dolphins, who have only scored 27+ twice this year, being able to keep up with the way Henne has been playing of late.

I’m going with this for my 2^nd 6 unit pick of the year. The only reason this isn’t 7 or 8 is because there’s a slight chance they could pull Brady early (BB is not exactly the most truthful and easy to read person) for Brian Hoyer, even though that’s not the Patriot way. Even in that situation, they could build an early 10-0 or 10-3 lead and still cover. These teams aren’t even close to being evenly matched. This is my favorite pick of the year (followed by Colts +3 against the Eagles, and the Panthers +10 against Jake Delhomme). Brady -3 against a sub .500 team in New England. Gotta love it.

 

Indianapolis Colts 34 Tennessee Titans 28

Spread: Indianapolis -9.5

Pick against spread: Tennessee 2 units (+200)

Tennessee flat out sucked last week. They showed zero effort in Kansas City and let Matt Cassel and company have their way with them all day. It was really (in the words of the great Jim Mora) a horseshit performance, especially when you consider that their offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger is still there in a losing season coaching despite battling cancer and going through chemo. I thought this team would show a little bit more effort for a coach who is showing all the effort in the world. I guess I was wrong.

However, I do expect the Titans to show up this week. This is a divisional clash against the hated rival Colts. They are only 2-3 against the division this year, but in one of those losses was by 2 points (against these Colts) and in another they were playing with Rusty Smith as their quarterback. Both of their division victories were very impressive, so they should give effort this week like they did two weeks ago against Houston.

The Colts, meanwhile, haven’t been playing the caliber of ball that allows them to cover large spreads like this one. Their last double digit win was week 8 against the Texans which was right before this team started “struggling” (by their standards). A few weeks ago, the Colts, as 3 point favorites on the road, failed to cover against the Titans. The Titans were coming off back to back ugly losses in that one as well so they’re no strangers to covering against the Colts after bad losses.

Oakland Raiders 27 Kansas City Chiefs 21 Upset Pick (+180)

Spread: Kansas City -4

Pick against spread: Oakland 3 units (+300)

Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs. I’ve doubted them all year, but they clinched the division over the San Diego Chargers with a week to spare. Todd Haley says he will be playing his starters this week, but we can’t know to what extent. If they win, they clinch the 3^rd seed. If they lose and the Colts win, they drop to 4. I doubt they care because either way they will have a home playoff game and play one of two similar teams, the Jets and Ravens.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are trying to complete an improbable 6-0 season in the division and get to 8-8 on the season. They have a good shot to do that even though doing so would mean that the Chiefs would drop their first home game of the season and fall to 7-1. I think finishing 6-0 in the division means more to the Raiders than 8-0 at home means to the Chiefs, who are just trying to get ready for the playoffs.

The Raiders matchup well with the Chiefs. They beat the Chiefs earlier this year in Oakland in large part because they were able to limit Dwayne Bowe, who is by far the Chiefs best and only good receiver. Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to limit Bowe again this week.

I like the Raiders chances to win here in a game that means more to them than the Chiefs. Also, there’s a chance Cassel sits or doesn’t play much to get ready for the playoffs which would mean Brodie “0-10” Croyle would start or play extensively for the Chiefs. Even if the Raiders fall, this should be a close game and I like getting 4 points with the Raiders. Both of these teams are run first teams, especially with Nnamdi Asomugha limiting Bowe and Croyle possibly playing extensively. Those type of games are normally close games, like this one was when the Raiders beat the Chiefs by 3 in Oakland earlier this year.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Spread: Baltimore -9.5

Pick against spread: Baltimore 1 unit (-110)

These Bengals have cost me 7 units in the last 2 weeks betting against them so naturally I was confused as to why they were having this success all of a sudden off of a 10 game losing streak. I concluded that it had something to do with the fact that Carson Palmer always seems to be at his best in December home games, something I overlooked in these past few weeks.

With that established, I think I should be safe picking against this team again this week, now on the road. However, Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, and Jermaine Gresham all did great jobs getting open last week for Carson Palmer and Palmer did a great job of finding them. This offense had a lot of life last week and could show some of that again this week. This young receivers are playing with a lot more heart than Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens.

However, I am going to take the Ravens here. The Ravens have historically done well as double digit favorites in the John Harbaugh era and they have done well against teams with losing records, going 6-2 and 11-4 in those situations respectively. This isn’t a true double digit line, but it’s close enough.

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

Spread: New Orleans -9.5

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 3 units (+300)

Tampa Bay’s defense sucks. They can’t stop anyone without Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy. They let Matt Hasselbeck march the Seahawks straight downfield before he got hurt. The only reason Charlie Whitehurst didn’t do anything is because, well, Charlie Whitehurst sucks. Before the Seattle game, they gave up 252 yards on 23 for 37 to Drew Stanton and 228 yards on 22 for 35 to Donovan McNabb in the two games they had since the Talib injury.

In their last meeting with the Saints, the Bucs gave up 475 yards and that was with Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy in the lineup. They also had Cody Grimm, who is also hurt right now. Grimm had been doing a good job filling in for the suspended Tanard Jackson before he got. This game is also in New Orleans, rather than Tampa Bay, so it’s safe to say the Saints will move the ball well in this one.

However, unlike week 6, the Buccaneers will be able to move the ball. Josh Freeman is coming off of a career game, 21 for 26 for 237 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Buccaneers had yet to discover LeGarrette Blount week 6 so they were unable to gut the Saints’ 19^th ranked run defense. Blount had 164 yards on 18 carries against Seattle’s 16^th ranked run defense last week, so he should have another big game here and certainly will be better than Cadillac Williams, who rushed for 18 yards on 10 carries week 6.

The Buccaneers are a drastically better team than they were week 6. Their box scores show this. They haven’t lost by more than 7 points since that week 6 31-6 defeat at the hands of the Saints. They haven’t had a cupcake schedule since then either, hanging within 7 of the Ravens, 6 of the Falcons, and then once again within 4 of the Falcons. Their only other loss in that time was to the Lions, which might be why this line is so high, but if that’s the case, then Vegas is drastically underestimating the Buccaneers. This is a solid football team.

The Saints struggle as double digit favorites in the Sean Peyton era. This isn’t quite a double digit spread, but it’s close enough and their 3-11 record in that situation is hard to ignore. Finally, the Buccaneers need this game more than the Saints. The Saints are in the playoffs after last week’s victory over the Falcons and will simply be playing for seeding. In fact, if the Falcons beat the lowly Panthers, the Saints won’t be able to get higher than the 5^th seed in this game.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are playing to make the playoffs. They need this win (and some help) to make the playoffs. They need the Giants and Packers to lose if they want to make the playoffs, but they will be playing at the same time as those two teams so they will go into this game still able to make the playoffs.

If this spread is at 10 or 10.5 anywhere, first tell me, then take it for 4, if not, take it for 3. Don’t wait for it to go into double digits because it’s already very high as it is and it’s more likely to drop to 8.5 or 9 than go into double digits.

New York Jets 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Spread: NY Jets -1

Pick against spread: NY Jets 1 unit (+100)

Mark Sanchez practiced on Wednesday and is expected to start for the Jets, but with this game being pretty meaningless for the Jets, he might not play the whole game. The Jets can either get the #5 seed or the #6 seed and no matter which one they get, their opponent will be the Chiefs or the Colts, depending on how those two teams do in their game, something they can’t control.

However, this line is really low. The Bills aren’t a very good team and I think if the Jets play their starters for a quarter and then play their backups for 3, they could still win this one. I’m not putting anymore than 2 on it because of the general uncertainty of the whole situation, but I like the Jets in this one. 

Update: Rex Ryan has said Sanchez won’t play the whole game. The line is down for this reason and a new pick will be posted when a new line is posted. 

Update: There is no definite answer on how much Mark Sanchez will play, though he is expected to play. Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, however, could miss the entire game, which greatly hurts the Jets’ chances. There’s also no telling if any Jets starter will play the whole game, so, while the Jets seem like the right side, it’s a very risky bet on either side. 

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Houston Texans 21 Upset Pick (+135)

Spread: Houston -3

Pick against spread: Jacksonville 2 units (-220)

The Jaguars fell flat on their faces last week as home favorites against a non-conference opponent. They’ll probably play better this week in a divisional, must win game in Houston. They’re also expected to have Maurice Jones Drew back. If he had played last week, they likely would have won, despite all the situations against them. Houston isn’t any better than Washington, who they lost to last week, so with MJD back, they have a good shot to win.

Houston, meanwhile, seems to have forgotten how to win. Whether they come back from large deficits to take the lead, and then blow it late, or blow a large lead early and lose, this team has seemingly lost in every way imaginable this season. They have one win since week 6, and that was against Rusty Smith and the Titans. There’s no way I’m betting on them in a fairly even spread. I don’t love Jacksonville, but I hate the Texans.

Update: David Garrard will underdog finger surgery this week and thus will not be available to play. Trent Edwards will start for the Jaguars. Vegas took this line down and has yet to repost it in the wake of the injury, so my new pick will be posted when the new line is posted. 

Update: With Trent Edwards starting, this line has moved to -3 in favor of Houston. As much as I hate betting on Trent Edwards, I’m not going to bet on the Texans as favorites. Not only are they false favorites (favorites after 2 or more straight losses), they flat out don’t know how to win. Besides, Houston’s secondary is so bad, Trent Edwards might have a good game here. 

Washington Redskins 26 New York Giants 23 Upset Pick (+175)

Spread: -4 NY Giants

Pick against spread: Washington 2 units (+200)

Another year, another second half Giants collapse. In their last 68 minutes, they have been outscored 73-17. They also have losses to Dallas and Philadelphia in the second half. Their only 3 wins were by 4 to the Jags, who dominated for most of the game, and the Redskins and Vikings, who didn’t show up. Eli Manning and company are turnover machines with 41 turnovers on the year, 6 more than 2^nd place Carolina. They can’t be trusted here.

The Redskins may have gotten blown out in their last matchup with the Giants, but they have bounced back well in their last 3, as they are 2-0-1 ATS and they only pushed in that one game, against the Buccaneers, because their special teams exploded. That was a single isolated incident and not a longterm issue. This game is also in Washington where the Redskins will be a lot more motivated than they were a few weeks ago in Washington.

The Giants need this win to make the playoffs and they are favored. Teams tend to struggle to cover in this situation. Based on how the Giants have played these past few weeks, that definitely could happen to them this week. Even if the Redskins don’t walk away with the win here, I like their chances to keep it within 4.

San Francisco 49ers 17 Arizona Cardinals 15

Spread: San Francisco -6.5

Pick against spread: Arizona 4 units (-440)

The San Francisco 49ers fired head coach Mike Singletary after their loss last week to the Rams, a loss that eliminated them from the playoff race. I can’t see this team getting up this week for a Cardinals team that they blew out earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are playing better football of late. Derek Anderson may have put his heart and soul into the shit, but he wasn’t very good. John Skelton has led them to a 2-1 record in his 3 starts, beating the Broncos and the Cowboys, and only losing by 7 to the Panthers on a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast. The Broncos and Cowboys aren’t very good, but then again neither are the 49ers.

The 49ers are favorites of 6.5 here despite their 5-10 record, a bad sign. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse are 19-49 ATS since 2002 when favored by 6 or more points. The 49ers are unable to finish better than 6-10 so this trend obviously applies. This has been my single favorite trend this season and I’m rolling with it again here.

San Diego Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 24

Spread: -3.5 San Diego

Pick against spread: Denver 1 unit (-110)

The San Diego Chargers were eliminated last week when they lost to the Cincinnati Bengals. It just goes to show, you can’t always suck for the first 2 months of the season and expect to then turn it on from November 1^st on. That was their attitude all year, but it didn’t happen.

I don’t know for sure how they’ll react, because they haven’t been eliminated in the Norv Turner/Philip Rivers era before, but I predict they’ll be extremely flat in this one because they have expected to make their comeback all season and it just never happened.

It doesn’t help that San Diego hasn’t been a good road team this year to begin with, at 2-5. Denver is still a tough place to play, especially with the way that Tim Tebow has been playing in his first 2 career starts. The Chargers aren’t the Texans, so Tebow won’t have quite as good of a game this week, but he’s still a very promising quarterback.

The problem is, we aren’t getting any line value. I was expecting this line to be at -6, even following the Chargers loss to the Bengals. I’m still taking the Broncos, because the line is more than a field goal and I think they can keep this one that close, but only for 1 unit.

Dallas Cowboys 28 Philadelphia Eagles 27 Upset Pick (+135)

Spread: Philadelphia -3

Pick against spread: Dallas 1 unit (+100)

Philadelphia is the one team whose week 17 matchup literally means absolutely nothing. They are stuck in the #3 seed no matter if they win or if they lose. Andy Reid has proven before that he will rest starters in meaningless week 17 games. It already looks as if Michael Vick won’t play at all with a quad injury, as backup Kevin Kolb has gotten all the first team reps in practice. Guys like Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy Asante Samuel, Trent Cole, among others, are not expected to play very much at all.

Kevin Kolb is a pretty good quarterback. We’ve seen him have success before in the past, but it’ll be interesting to see how he responds without Maclin and Jackson, not to mention a strong defense supporting him. Lucky for Kolb, the Cowboys defense isn’t much better than Philadelphia second team defense. The Cowboys really struggle to stop people so Kolb and company will put points on the board.

While this game means virtually nothing to the Eagles, it means a lot to the Cowboys. After this miserable season, they want to end it on a high note and a win over the Eagles would certainly be a high note. The Eagles are also a division rival and remember, the Cowboys only lost by 3 to the Eagles earlier this year so there’s a revenge factor in this one.

Stephen McGee will start for the Cowboys. He proved himself to be a decent signal caller last week, maybe even good enough to force some desperate team to trade a pick for him this offseason. Unlike Kolb, McGee will have the full use of his receivers, at least the healthy ones, which means Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Jason Witten.  Against a second team defense, he will put some points on the board as well.

I think it would take someone with a gambling problem to put big money on this game. We simply don’t know how well or how poor the Eagles’ backups will play. Obviously if they play badly, the Cowboys have a very good shot at winning. However, if they play well, the Eagles have the better signal caller in this one and are the home team, which would make it very tough for the Cowboys to win. I’m taking the points for 1. The Cowboys should win this one, but it’s a very risky bet.

St. Louis Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 9

Spread: St. Louis -2.5

Pick against spread: St. Louis 5 units (-550)

The Seattle Seahawks have to have set the record for the worst team to ever be alive in the playoff race week 17. They are 6-9 right now. Since week 6, they have 3 wins, against Jimmy Clausen, Max Hall, and Derek Anderson. Their other three wins were against an early season form Chargers team, a slumping Bears team, and the San Francisco 49ers.

All of their 9 losses have been by 15 points or more. They have a differential of -117. The only teams who have worse differentials, Denver, Buffalo, Arizona, and Carolina. Oh, and to make things worse, their starting quarterback hurt his back on a non-contact play in a meaningless game last week and is not expected to start this week. Instead, it will be Clipboard Jesus, Charlie Whitehurst.

With Whitehurst starting, I give this team no shot. I would have given them a bit of a shot with Hasselbeck, because, in that case, they would be a good home team with a veteran quarterback facing a bad road team with a rookie quarterback in a must win game. However, without Hasselbeck, they don’t have a shot.

 Not only is Whitehurst inexperienced (less experienced than Bradford actually), but he’s also terrible. This team simply can’t move the ball when he’s in the game. In his one start, he was able to lead his team to 7 points all game, and that was a home game against the Giants so you can throw out that Seattle is a good home team with Whitehurst starting. Whitehurst was once again unable to move the ball in the Tampa Bay game, so this is a recurring thing. Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t even good, especially missing Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy.

St. Louis’ defense is clearly superior to the Bucs’ defense. In fact, their defense might mirror the Giants defense a lot. St. Louis head coach Steve Spagnuolo is a former defensive coordinator for the Giants and his pass rush is just as good as the Giants. The Rams have 41 sacks and the Giants 43. The Rams should have no problem stopping the Seahawks offense.

Sam Bradford might have some jitters on the road in a hostile environment in a must win game, but if Whitehurst plays terribly, this crowd is going to get quiet fast and Bradford should still be able to have a good game against a terrible Seattle defense. Bradford also has the experience edge (in terms of in game experience) so he might be the calmer of the two quarterbacks here. Not to mention, he probably has a lot more confidence in his abilities than Whitehurst.

If Hasselbeck, who has not yet been officially ruled out, plays, I’ll change my pick. It’ll still be St. Louis, but for fewer units. Bradford isn’t quite the same QB on the road as he is at home, but he has two road wins this year against the Broncos and Cardinals. Those teams aren’t any good, but then again, neither are Charlie Whitehurst and the Seahawks.

 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-4

4 games in and Chan Gailey already tops my list of coaches who should be fired (over John Fox, Tom Coughlin, and Eric Mangini). Gailey’s scheme doesn’t work. That’s why the Chiefs went 2-14 and had the one of the league’s worst offenses when Gailey was the offensive coordinator in 2008. It works on a college level, but it doesn’t work in the NFL. The defenses are too smart and too fast to be fooled by a short throw offense. They’ll just stack the box and stagnant your offense. I can kind of see using that scheme with Trent Edwards at quarterback because Edwards throws like a girl (no offense to girls), but Ryan Fitzpatrick has a bit of a stronger arm and they still aren’t setting up anything downfield to guys like Lee Evans (10 catches for 94 yards). 

Gailey also is refusing to use CJ Spiller, whom the front office spent the 9th overall pick on this past April. In 4 games, Spiller has 14 rushes and 12 catches for a total of 94 yards and a score. He used Marshawn Lynch as the feature back (37 carries for 164 yards) and now that they’ve cut ties with Lynch and traded him to Seattle for a 4th and a 6th rounder, Gailey has announced that Fred Jackson 920 carries for 87 yards) will be the starter. I know I didn’t like the Spiller move when it was made, because Lynch and Jackson were already capable of handling the running game, but at least use the kid. 

Also Gailey is starting the wrong quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick turns 28 this November and has 789 career attempts as a 7th rounder pick out of Harvard. You know what you’re going to get out of him by and now and that’s a quarterback that, if everything else possibly goes right around him, will get you to 10-6. He’s not in that top 10 or top 15 tier of quarterbacks that can possibly win you a Super Bowl. My philosophy is that, if you know the guy starting for you isn’t the guy who can get your team where you want it to go, change the guy, whether it be by drafting a quarterback (which they should have done in April and should do this April in the 2011 NFL Draft) or by promoting someone in house. Brian Brohm has 29 career attempts and is a 25 year old former 2nd round pick. Why not see if he’s the guy that can take your team where you want it to go. It can’t hurt. He probably isn’t (17 for 29 for 146 yards and 2 picks in his career), but he’s still young and the Packers did see something in him when they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2008 (despite having Aaron Rodgers).

Finally, plain and simply, Gailey’s team sucks. There’s no getting past that. The Bills have lost by 20 or more points this year twice in 4 games and have yet to win a single game. They’ve lost by 15-10, 34-7, 38-30, and 38-14. That’s bad.

31. Cleveland Browns 1-3

Seneca Wallace did admirably in 3 starts after taking over for an injured Jake Delhomme after week 1. In 3 starts, he led the hapless Browns to a 1-2 record and threw for 554 yards on 52 for 85 with 3 touchdowns and 2 picks. He’s not the type of quarterback that’s going to win you a Super Bowl or anything, but he’s a solid game manager. The catch, they’re going back to Jake Delhomme this week. Come on. Did you expect any different? It’s the Browns. Browns and Bad quarterbacks are synonomous. I’m not sure what attracted them to Delhomme. Was it his 8 touchdowns to 18 picks in 2009? His 5 turnover game in the playoffs in 2008? Or his team killing 2 picks in the opener to lose a close one to the lowly Browns?

30. Detroit Lions 0-4

Further prove the football gods hate the Lions, the Lions are 0-4 and they’re not even playing badly. They’ve lost those 4 games by a combined 24 points. And it’s not like they’re almost beating bad teams. They lost to the Bears by 1 on a bullshit rule. They lost to the Eagles by 3. They lost to the Vikings by 14 in a game that should have been a lot closer. They lost by 2 to the Packers this past weekend. If they had had a healthy Matt Stafford, they could be 3-1 right now or something like that. Shaun Hill is a servicable player, but doesn’t have the big play potential Stafford has. They’re losing like always, but they’re not even playing like they always do. This team is now 3-41 in their last 44 games. The football gods hate the Lions.

29. Arizona Cardinals 2-2

The Cardinals are making the switch from Derek Anderson to undrafted rookie Max Hall, 4 games into this season. They’ve played a lot worse than their 2-2 record would suggest as their two wins came by a combined 5 points to the lowly Raiders and the Rams in Sam Bradford’s debut. They needed a missed chip shot field goal by Sebastian Janikowski to beat the Raiders. Their two losses came by a combined 65 points. Their runs scored/runs allowed differential of -60 is 2nd worst in the league to the Bills -64. They may be in first place, but they’re not playing like a first place team, at all.

I actually like the switch to Max Hall. I know what you’re thinking, didn’t I go into detail about how quarterbacks that have a rookie redshirt year do so much better in their careers. That is very true, but that only concerns potential franchise quarterbacks. I saw enough of Max Hall in college to know there’s about a .5% chance he’s a franchise quarterback in the NFL, maybe not even that much of a chance. However, he’s better than what they have in Derek Anderson. Hall is very similar to Bruce Gradkowski and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Give them an amazing supporting cast and they can take you to the playoffs. Hall can win this team the 6 or 7 games (I wish I was kidding) it could take to win this division. 

He’s pretty much the anti-Derek Anderson. Anderson has all the physical tools to win you games, but he’ll lose you a lot more than he’ll win you with poor decision making, accuracy, and intangibles. Hall doesn’t wow you with arm strength at all. He stands at about 6-1 210 with shoes on, but he’s a proven leader, and he’s got great mechanics and accuracy. He may be a rookie, but he’s 24, thanks to a 2 year mormon mission. He also is younger and less proven. You know what you’re getting with Derek Anderson and it ain’t pretty. With Hall, there’s a chance he could become that franchise guy that could lead your team to the Super Bowl. It’s not a good chance, but it’s a better chance than Anderson. And if he doesn’t, well maybe he can lead this team to a 7 win playoff berth this year and they can start fresh with a new signal caller in 2011. Or better yet, draft one in 2011 and sit him behind Hall for a year as a rookie redshirt year. Because after all, the history doesn’t lie. Rookie redshirt years do help.

28. Oakland Raiders 1-3

The Raiders have their biggest game of the year this week. They play the Chargers, the early season Chargers, and have a legitimate chance to knock the Chargers off for the first time in 13 games. This is their Super Bowl, because they’re obviously not going to be playing in any real Super Bowl anytime soon. I expect them to come out playing hard and (NFL Picks spoiler alert), I they’ll pull it off.

27. Carolina Panthers 0-4

Poor Jimmy Clausen. As if having a crappy offensive line, a defense that can’t stop anyone, a Head Coach who forgot his team was a run first team, and receivers for the most part that can’t get seperation, Steve Smith has now gone down with yet another of his patented injuries and could miss up to the month. Now he has no receivers that can get open. His top receivers are two rookies, Brandon LaFell and David Gettis, both of whom were drafted in the 3rd round or later, and Dwayne Jarrett who might as well not even have hands. He can’t catch anything. I don’t know how Clausen almost knocked off the Saints in New Orleans with this supporting cast.

26. San Francisco 49ers 0-4

What’s sad is that this team still has a decent shot of winning the division, despite starting 0-4. Their division is that bad. They have 5 more games remaining with division opponents. If they go 4-1 in those games, and then play decent (3-4) in their other 7 games, they have 7 wins and could win this division. Their still a talented team. In fact, I’d say they’re the most talented team in the division. Two of their losses were for stupid reasons and by a combined 5 points to a good Atlanta and a good New Orleans team. There’s no need to panic in San Fran and change coaches (why would you want to get rid of Singletary) or quarterbacks (argue all you want, Alex Smith is better than David Carr). If they don’t make the playoffs, then they can fire their coach and switch quarterbacks, meaning draft a new one in the first round with what should be a top 10 pick.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-2

The Jaguars just beat the Colts, but this is still a bad team. They beat the Colts because they always play the Colts tough. Some bad teams, in fact most bad teams, particularly ones that have been bad consistently in recent history, all have teams they play their hardest against traditionally. For the Jaguars, that is the Colts. They won that game because they gave it their all, but they don’t do that every week. In fact, they don’t do that most weeks. Also, those two weird turnovers by the Colts and a magical 59 yard field goal to win it also probably helped a lot.

24. Seattle Seahawks 2-2

I don’t love their move for Marshawn Lynch. I think that, first of all, running games are overrated. As long as you have a strong passing game to lift their pressure off the box, most decent running backs can average 4 YPC. Look at what the Patriots have been doing for years. All you need is different types of running backs to mix and match. Second of all, I don’t think the running game was the problem. Justin Forsett and Leon Washington were capable backs. Lynch does give them that extra look, which is good. The positives, of course, are that (as always) the NFC West sucks so adding a player like Lynch could have a tiny difference that pushes them over the top. Also, what they gave up, a 4th and 6th rounder, is not all that much.

23. st. Louis Rams 2-2

The Rams are the favorites in the NFC West? Why not? The Seahawks are having defensive issues and I know how that I trust Matt Hasselbeck as a quarterback. The 49ers and 0-4 desperately need to get their shit together. And the Cardinals just switch quarterbacks to an undrafted rookie. So, I’d say the Rams are the favorites in the NFC West. I’m not sure if you’re sensing a theme, but the NFC West is pretty bad.

What’s so surprising about the Rams is not their offense. Steven Jackson is doing what we expect him too, which is being a badass, doing everything a running back can possibly do, all while playing injured. Sam Bradford, though a lot will be made that he’s having a good year, is really not. He’s completing 58% of his passes for a YPA of 6.0 and 6 picks to 6 touchdowns. Those aren’t bad rookie numbers at all, but they’re not amazing, especially considering he’s faced some pretty run of the mill or worse defenses (Seattle, Washington, Arizona, Oakland). They’re basically what I expected from a rookie quarterback who didn’t have much experience in a pro style offense and hadn’t played in a competitive football game since October of 2009. 

What is surprising about the Rams and what is making them 2-2 is their defense. I guess it shouldn’t be so surprising, considering Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive genius. The Giants can’t create any pressure without Spags as their defensive coordinator (unless of course they’re playing the Bears). But the personnel on this defense were hardly impressive names coming into the season. However, they ranked 16th against the pass in YPA and 7th against the pass in QB rating. They also have an impressive 9 sacks (10th in the league) in 4 games.

This of course could be because of their weak strength of schedule. Other than Donovan McNabb, they aren’t really facing any good quarterbacks. Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, and Shaun Hill are hardly impressive quarterbacks. We’ll have to see what they do once they’re tested. Luckily for them, they won’t really be tested all that much. I think they have the easiest schedule in the league and that could propel them to be an unlikely playoff team (granted with 7 or so wins).

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1

Bye

21. Denver Broncos 2-2

With Kyle Orton playing the way he is, the Broncos are in a great position to challenge for the AFC West if the Chargers don’t improve and the Chiefs 3-0 start is really as much of a fluke as I think it is. Kyle Orton is playing like a legitimate quarterback and stretching the field. Their passing game is dangerous deep down field, something they didn’t have last year. That’s going to open things up for the running game and put points on the board. This is going to force opponents to match and that’s going to allow them to make the most of their strong pass defense. The big thing is though, red zone offense. 1419 passing yards by Orton has led to 6 passing touchdowns and 87 points. If they can capitalize on their strong passing offense, with a odd matched bunch of receviers that work well together (Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Jabar Gaffney), they’re going to be a solid team this year, especially if Knowshon Moreno can run well coming back from his injury, and if their ground defense can play as well as it did last week against Chris Johnson.

20. Philadelphia Eagles 2-2

Michael Vick supporters got more ammunition this week. First of all, they never got to see Michael Vick struggle against a defense that wasn’t the Lions’ or the Jaguars’ because he wasn’t in the game long enough. Before leaving with a rib cage injury, Vick was 5 for 7 for 59 yards and it was tough to call it either a bad performance or a good performance by Vick. Also, Kolb came in and didn’t really play that well and lost the game. Vick supporters can now say that the Eagles are 2-0 in games that Vick starts and finishes and 0-2 in games that he doesn’t. I can’t wait until Vick comes back and has to play a good defense and struggles and shuts up Vick supporters. Vick is not nearly the quarterback he once was and he was never even the quarterback that every thought he was. He’s not a good pocket passer or passer in general.

19. Kansas City Chiefs 3-0

Bye

18. Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Remember all the excitement around Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens that was out there before the season, all the hype. Where’s any of that now? It all disappeared and Owens just caught 10 catches for 222 yards and is not even really that big of news. I guess that’s what happens when you lose, especially to the Browns. I guess that just goes to show, it doesn’t matter how good your receivers are if your quarterback is crap. Palmer has proven this season that he is crap. No more excuses for him. If he can’t even lead this team to the playoffs, not looking likely, we can never possibly say he’s the type of quarterback that can win a Super Bowl. As I’ve mentioned, my rule with quarterbacks, if you don’t think you can win a Super Bowl with a guy, you’ve gotta switch, either to a backup that’s unproven or by drafting a new quarterback. It’ll be interesting to see if they do one of those two this offseason.

17. Tennessee Titans 2-2

I had a feeling that Chris Johnson could struggle this year, after leading the league in carries and touches at his small size last year, but I didn’t imagine anything like what we’ve seen from him at times this year. Johnson is averaging 3.8 YPA and has two performances of 34 yards and 53 yards. 34 against the Steelers is excuable. Michael Turner and Ray Rice couldn’t break 50 against them either. But 53 against the Broncos? This is the same Broncos team that was one of the worst run stopping defenses in the league last year and fixed that by giving enormous amounts of money to former backups on the defensive line. Johnson also has performances of 142 yards and 125 yards, but the low YPA, 3.8 on the year, hasn’t broken 4 in a week since week 1, and those two clunker performances, are very concerning, especially for Titans fans. The less he can run, the more Vince Young has to pass and the more Vince Young has to pass, the more they lose. Young is a great winner and game manager, but he can’t be relied on to win a game where he has to throw 30 times for 250 yards to win.

 

16. Miami Dolphins 2-2

Special teams, and particularly their special team’s coach, the recently canned John Bonamego, are going to be blamed for that loss to the Patriots, a loss in which the Patriots became the first team ever to have a kick return touchdown, a rushing touchdown, a passing touchdown, a blocker kick returned for a touchdown, and a pick six in the same game. However, the special teams shouldn’t take all the blame and what blame the special teams takes should fall on the players, not the coach. There’s only so much a coach can do if his players play like crap, as they did in the Patriots game. Also, even without the 21 points (punt return touchdown, blocked kick return touchdown, blocked punt that set up a short field for a touchdown) that their special teams gave up, they still lose that game 20-14. I feel like special teams could be a scapegoat for their loss. They didn’t just lose because their special teams didn’t play well. As a team, they didn’t play well.

Henne was able to move the ball well on a poor New England defense, but he also through three killer interceptions (one for a pick six) that simply should not have been thrown. I know he’s young, but he’s got to work on his decision making. Now, there are actually talks that Henne could be benched in favor of Chad Pennington (3 comeback players of the year for Pennington?), an interesting move, as they attempt to save their season. I think it would be best to let Henne work through his issues, but if they feel differently, Pennington could be the guy again.

15. Minnesota Vikings 1-2

The Vikings had a bye last week, but made headlines by trading for former face of the franchise Randy Moss. I know it’s not the same regime in town as it was when Moss forced himself out after the 2004 season and began his exile in Oakland, but it’ll still be weird seeing Moss in a Vikings jersey again. I do like the move of the Vikings though. Sidney Rice isn’t playing for at least another 4 weeks and they could be out of it by then. Favre has proven this year that he needs a big athletic target like a Randy Moss or a Sidney Rice. The Vikings figure, Favre’s probably done after the year anyway, meaning it would be back to square one for this franchise, why not go all out this year and try as hard as possible to win it all. I like the courage. I’m not sure it even makes them a playoff team yet. Favre still has to play better and get better protection, but if those things happen, look out, especially once Rice returns. Moss, Rice, Harvin, Peterson, Favre, oh shit. How do you stop that? Moss faces his old nemisis Darrelle Revis this week as the Vikings take on the Jets. I’ll say more about the Moss move in the Patriots section (spoiler alert).

14. Chicago Bears 3-1

Many people can be blamed for what took place on the field last week at Meadowlands, meaning 10 sacks by the Giants on the Bears, two different quarterbacks getting hurt for the Bears, and a total offense of 110 yards. First of all, Mike Martz’ scheme was to blame. It’s pretty easy to stop the Mike Martz scheme, just create pressure on the quarterback. The Martz scheme can be explosive, but it requires a lot of time in the pocket, a lot of 7 step drops to set up deep routes. 2nd, I’m going to blame Jay Cutler himself. He knows the pressure is coming. He’s got to get it out of there to one of the open guys. When the opponent blitzes, someone is open. He knows the blitz is coming. He needs to do what Kurt Warner did in this scheme in St. Louis, read the blitz and get that ball out of there. He looked like a statue out there last week and simply could not read the blitz at all. 3rd, you gotta blame the offensive line. They have to block better than that, plain and simple. I had some concerns about the Martz scheme coming to Chicago this year and those two concerns were the Cutler doesn’t do well under pressure and that the Bears offensive line is pretty porous. Both of those concerns came to life last Sunday night in a 17-3 loss to the Giants. They’ll have to rebound this week against the Panthers, but without Jay Cutler (concussion). Todd Collins will start instead.

13. New York Giants 2-2

Still tough to get a read on this team. They are a talented bunch, but they are just 2-2 and their offense didn’t look that great in a 17-3 win over the Bears. You’d think if how well that defense play, their offense could have easily scored 20-25 if they had been more in sync, but they weren’t. Time will still continue to tell for this team, but I think Tom Coughlin will get fired if they slip up in these next few weeks or if they don’t make the playoffs this season as this team is talented enough to make the playoffs easily.

12. Washington Redskins 2-2

Clinton Portis’ injury, for 4 to 6 weeks with a hammy problem, could be a blessing in disguise for this team. Ryan Torain is younger and is running better right now. He looks like the future at running back for the Redskins. I had a feeling he could have a big role on this team at some point this year. Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Pakrer are all ancient (two have been cut, one is hurt) and Shanahan specifically brought Torain in from Denver, the team with whom Shanahan drafted Torain in the 5th round in 2008.

11. Dallas Cowboys 1-2

Bye

10. Houston Texans 3-1

Gary Kubiak’s decision to bench Foster for a quarter and a half because he was late to one team meeting is a bit head scratching. There could have been prior offenses, but everything I’ve read about him has been positive, regarding his character, so I doubt that. Luckily for Kubiak, Foster still managed 187 total yards and 2 total touchdowns on 19 touches and a 31-24 Texans victory, and I mean luckily in more than one sense. Luckily for his team’s sake. They still won the game 31-24, despite not having Andre Johnson’s services at all. And, Kubiak won’t be killed by an angry mob of fantasy owners for benching their star player without any word prior. Those fantasy owners who were once pissed and ready to form an angry mob to march down to Houston to kill Kubiak (including me) now can’t possibly be pissed because Foster got them 34 fantasy points. 

9. Baltimore Ravens 3-1

Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers with Big Ben: 4-0. Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers without Big Ben: 0-2. Joe Flacco’s late drive to lead his team to victory was impressive, especially considering that was the first time all season the Pittsburgh defense was made look human. However, you still have to wonder what that score looks like if Ben plays. In a few weeks we’ll see as these two, of course, will meet again later in the season, but for now, Flacco’s accomplishment, however impressive, is a bit cheapened by Ben’s suspension.

8. San Diego Chargers 2-2

We still don’t know what type of team this is. They don’t normally start playing good football until late October, early November. They’ve had an extremely easy early season schedule, but thanks to two close and kind of weird losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks on the road, they do sit at 2-2. Their schedule doesn’t get much harder these next two weeks as they face the Raiders and Rams. However, they better bring it weeks 7-9 before the bye as they face New England, Tennessee, and Houston. After the bye, they face division rival Denver and the Colts. If they struggle in those 5 games and go say 2-3, I’d be concerned about their ability to win this division. The Chiefs and Broncos are both better than they were last year.

7. New England Patriots 3-1

The Patriots were really impressive last week, but considering how they won, I don’t think it tells us a ton about this team. This defense looked really bad for most of the time they were on the field, with the exception of their 4 interceptions. This defense might not be able to tackle anyone or cover anyone, but they can take the ball away from you. Their 7 interceptions on the season rank 2nd best in the league, only to Atlanta with 8.

I also want to comment on the Randy Moss move. I live in Boston and the move definitely didn’t go over well with Patriots nation here. I, included, am not a fan of the move. I rather have kept Moss for the season and let him go after then have just gotten a 3rd rounder for him. I’d feel differently if it was the originally rumored 2nd round pick, because in that case, Moss isn;t a huge part of this offense any more, and they probably weren’t going to win the Super Bowl with or without him, and he was going to go for nothing after the season, and it would allow us to build young talent for 2012 or 2013, when Moss would clearly have been out of the picture anyway. But a 3rd rounder is different. It just doesn’t feel like fair value. the only way this move makes sense to me is if there was something internal that we don’t know about that forced him out. It certainly wouldn’t be the first team a team has had to trade Randy Moss for dimes on the dollar for behind the scenes reasons. Unfortunately, since it is the Patriots, we’re never going to know for sure.

6. New York Jets 3-1

In the process of determining if Mark Sanchez has taken the leap in his 2nd year to being a legitimate Super Bowl caliber quarterback, the fact that he just destroyed the Bills means about as little as anything can mean. The fact that a healthy LaDainian Tomlinson is running like he’s 25, however, is huge. The more LT and Shonn Greene (who also rushed for over 100 yards, first time this season, against the Bills) can do, the less Sanchez has to do,a dn the less Sanchez has to do, the better I still say at this point in his career. At the same time, this defense gets Calvin Pace and Darrelle Revis back, and the offense gets Santonio Holmes back from suspension. This team is now 100% and very, very scary.

5. Atlanta Falcons 3-1

I was expecting a letdown after they beat the Saints, essentially their Super Bowl, so I’m not surprised that it took a weird play for them to beat the 49ers by 2. This team is still an elite team in great position to make a deep run this January.

4. New Orleans Saints 3-1

The Saints have won their 3 games by a combined 10 points over three teams that are a combined 1-11. The Super Bowl hangover has hit this team. That’s the bad news. The good news, they’re still 3-1 and you just know that Drew Brees could explode to lead this team to 30+ points on any given week still. You still fear this team and their weapons. I’m not going to pick them to go all the way, especially as their already weak defense will miss Tracy Porter (out indefinitely) and their offense wll miss Reggie Bush, who by even the most optimistic projections, is out until after week 7. Their offense simply isn’t quite the same without him. However, I’m not going to be surprised if they repeated. They’re still a talented bunch sitting at 3-1.

3. Indianapolis Colts 2-2

People in the sports media are panicking and overreacting to the Colts loss to the Jaguars and the fact that they sit at 2-2. The Colts lost to a good Houston team that was playing its heart out and as Jacksonville team that was playing its heart out, because of two weird turnovers and an amazing 59 yard field goal by Jags’ kicker Josh Scobee. There’s a chance they don’t get 12 wins again this year, but they’re still a dangerous team. They still have Peyton Manning and there is no Super Bowl hangover with this team. They’ve been to the Super Bowl before and won it. They won’t be as distracted by losing one, for that reason, than a team that had never been to a Super Bowl together before that.

2. Green Bay Packers 3-1

The fact that the Packers barely beat the Lions by 2 and all the injuries that are adding up (Ryan Grant, Morgan Burnett, Nick Barnett out for the season, Nick Collins out indefinitely) are causes for concern for the Packers. However, they were my Super Bowl pick to start the year and they are still 3-1 with one loss by 3 points, so I’m still ranking them very high. I love the explosiveness of this offense with Aaron Rodgers. I would have loved it more if they had traded for a real running back like Marshawn Lynch, but whatever.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

The Steelers lost, by remain my #1 team for the 2nd week in a row because, look what happened to all the other top 5 teams. Atlanta won by 2, New Orleans won by 2, Green Bay won by 2, and the Colts lost. No elite team did amazing last week and the Steelers were easily playing the toughest opponent of the bunch. If this team can mesh well when Big Ben comes back, they’re going far this year. It’s as simple as that.

 

 

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers  (8)  7 – 0   next at San Diego Chargers

Only undefeated team in the NFL is coming off a bye and should be ready for San Diego Chargers this week. Chargers have extra chips on their shoulders after the horrifying loss against the Kansas City Chiefs but Packers might be too much for them. As long as Aaron Rodgers stay upright, this team has chance to go 16-0.

(5)  2. Pittsburgh Steelers  5 – 2   next vs Baltimore Ravens

Steelers starting to look pretty good.  Big win over the Pats, but can they stay on top with all the injuries at LB?  With another big test this week, they have a chance to return the favor to the Ravens and beat them like they got beat in week 1.  Look for the Steelers to show no mercy!

(4)  3. San Francisco 49ers  6 – 1   next at Washington Redskins

What this team has done is nothing short of a miracle. However, we don’t believe they are an elite team. If they can win against the Ravens and Steelers, this team should be a true contender. The stingy defense with adequate offense can carry you only so far in today’s league where no lead is safe. The 49ers should make playoff, might even clinch the playoff spot first this season.

(3)  4. New England Patriots  5 – 2   next vs New York Giants

I don’t know who is next on the schedule for Brady and company but I’m gonna assume they are gonna inherit a really pissed off Tom Brady…Oh wait, its the Giants!  As in rematch of the Super Bowl a few years ago Giants!   Good Luck with that New York…

(2)  New Orleans Saints  5 – 3   next vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How do the Saints go from slaughtering one winless team by 55 to losing to another by 10? Makes no sense.  This team needs home-field in the playoffs. They are a completely different team on the road.  With that said, watch for Brees and Company to step it up!

(7)  6. Detroit Lions  6 – 2   next bye

They absolutely destroyed the Broncos’ last week. we don’t even know how the Broncos managed to score 10 points between Lions’ fierce pass-rush and Tim Tebow’s incompetency. The offense looked great but running game is still a concern as they only managed 4.0 yards per carry against the possibly worst defense in the league. They have a bye week and a big game against Bears in Chicago a week after.

(6)  7. Baltimore Ravens  5 – 2  next at Pittsburgh Steelers

This team is extremely inconsistent, which is hard to understand when you think about the locker room leadership it has. The Ravens better bring their best game or will be trashed at Pittsburgh, where Steelers are looking to return a favor from week 1. With Bengals playing great, the Ravens might become the third best team in AFC North.

 

(13)  8. Buffalo Bills  5 – 2  next vs New York Jets

Wow, another surprise here,  4-0 at home!  Very impressive Buffalo, very impressive. Wanna know something more impressive? Buffalo’s offense has outscored the Patriots offense by 9 points so far this season.  Dominant performance against the Skins last week. Big divisional matchup with the Jets Sunday!!! 

(9)  9. New York Giants  5 – 2   next at New England Patriots

That was quite a scare versus a winless Miami team at home.  Sorry, but the Giants look like the worst 5-2 team we have seen in a while…Lots of problems with the Patriots on the way. 

(10)  10. New York Jets  4 – 3   next at Buffalo Bills

What kind of team will emerge after the bye?  Can the Jets deliver a big blow to the Bills this Sunday?  With the chance to slip into second place and the universe to going back to feeling right, Rex Ryan and the J-E-T-S go into Buffalo to start making a guarantee look more like a reality.

(12)  11. Houston Texans  5 – 3   next vs Cleveland Browns

We really like how poised and resilient they look even after they lost two super stars (Mario Williams and Andre Johnson). They have beaten teams they should beat last two weeks (Titans and Jaguars) and have very manageable schedule for the rest of the season. With AFC South all but stable, Texans should easily win the division.

(NR)  12. Philadelphia Eagles 3 – 4   next vs Chicago Bears ( Monday Night)

Dominated the Cowboys. Starting to look like a Dream Team.  They treated their fans to a jump back into contention.  We have no doubts in saying, this team looks like they still can win the NFC East.  This week against the Bears will give us an idea if they are serious about taking the division or not.

(11)  13. Atlanta Falcons  4 – 3   next at Indianapolis Colts

Yes, this team is back and fresh after a bye, look for a strong surge outta Matty Ice and a heavy dose of Burner Turner as they wanna get a jump on Indy then look forward to the big match up with New Orleans next week.

(15)  14. Cincinnati Bengals  5 – 2   next at Tennessee Titans

This Bengals team is nothing like old teams I have seen for last few years. Everyone is dedicated to the football and there is no diva in that locker room.  Andy Dalton and A.J Green will be the cornerstone this franchise for a long time. They still have to face the Steelers and the Ravens twice but the Bengals have a good chance to make playoff.

(NR)  15. Chicago Bears 4 – 3   next at Philadelphia Eagles

With a chance to pull within one game of Detroit this week, they have a BIG test at Philly on Monday Night.  Matt Forte is having the best year of his career and the production of the offense depends on him.  We wonder if what’s happening with Chris Johnson in Tennessee is what is holding the Bears up from paying big money to Matt Forte?  All we know is, you better pay the man because there are alot of teams that will!!!

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Nolan Vasan of NFL Draft Geek

Ryan Mc Crystal of Draft Ace

Brian Goldsmith of Hair of the Dog Sports Blog

 Clayton Terry of The Fan Experience

David Gallagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk