Free agency priorities

Quarterback

Jake Locker isn’t NFL ready, especially if this lockout significantly cuts into rookie practice time. They’ll probably resign Kerry Collins or a similar veteran to at least give Locker some competition. 

Wide Receiver

There’s a reason they signed Randy Moss. They were desperate for another receiver opposite Kenny Britt, who has since been arrested. Nate Washington belongs in the slot. They won’t resign Moss, but they’ll add some veteran receiver. 

Center

They struggled at center without Kevin Mawae last year and didn’t find Mawae’s replacement through the draft. They’ll look at free agent centers. 

Guard 

Their hole at left guard is as big as their hole at center.

Draft Needs 

Quarterback

Vince Young is as good as gone, so unless the Titans plan on going into 2011 with a 38 year old Kerry Collins and a terrible Rusty Smith, they’ll address this position in the offseason. Jeff Fisher’s in the last year of his contract so his job depends on how the Titans fare in 2011. He’ll almost certainly try to add a veteran (Donovan McNabb?) rather than risking his job on a rookie.

Drafted Jake Locker (#8) 

Defensive End

Jason Babin is a free agent and will be looking for an expensive longterm deal after a breakout year in 2010. It’s simply not in the Titans’ nature to give big, expensive longterm deals to 30+ year old players. Besides Babin’s 12.5 sacks, this team only had 27.5 sacks last year and no one other than Babin and nickel rusher Dave Ball had more than 3.5 sacks.

Drafted Karl Klug (#142) 

Defensive Tackle

The Titans have been looking for Albert Haynesworth’s replacement since Haynesworth left. They will be the front runners to land Haynesworth this offseason if the Redskins trade/release him. If they don’t get him, they could address this position through the draft.

Drafted Jurrell Casey (#77), Zach Clayton (#212) 

Wide Receiver

Randy Moss is probably on a missing person’s list somewhere, but the fact that they even took a risk bringing him in shows how much they need receiving help across from Kenny Britt. Nate Washington was their #2 receiver last year, but he’s better off in the slot.

Outside Linebacker

The Titans could actually upgrade all 3 linebacker positions in the offseason, but the biggest need is at outside linebacker. Gerald McRath shouldn’t be starting.

Drafted Akeem Ayers (#37), Drafted Colin McCarthy (#109)

Middle Linebacker

Stephen Tulloch could be gone as a free agent. 

Guard

A big part of the reason why Chris Johnson struggled on the ground this year was that his interior blocking wasn’t what it was in 2009.

Drafted Byron Stingily (#175) 

Center

Kevin Mawae retired after last season and this season showed that his replacement is not on the roster.

Cornerback

Alterraun Verner had a decent rookie year, but they need depth behind him and Cortland Finnegan.

Safety

Chris Hope is a fairly marginal player.

Drafted Tommie Campbell (#251) 

By Paul Smythe 

Tyler Thigpen is expected to make his first start with the Miami Dolphins in front of a national audience Thursday night against the Bears. 

This is going to be a huge game for Thigpen, and if he plays like he did at the end of the Tennessee game he may very well become the starting quarterback in Miami for a long time.

Last week when he came in for the injured Chad Pennington and Chad Henne, Thigpen was able to give the offense a big spark and lead a scoring drive.

With the exception of his very first pass, Thigpen was on the mark and pretty much perfect on every one of his throws. He was able to scramble and make plays when he needed to, and because of him the Dolphins were able to pretty much seal the game.

My guess is that the Bears (and the rest of the football community) won’t be expecting Thigpen to do well. Chicago is probably just thinking about how lucky they are that Miami is going to be without their 1st or 2nd string quarterbacks. Not long form now they will find out, though, that Thigpen is a very dangerous quarterback.

What excites me so much about Thigpen is how well he can create plays with his feet. I was reading about him earlier, and someone called him the poor man’s Michael Vick, which is actually a very good analogy. He may not have the speed of Vick, but he is very similar in style to Vick. Heck, I wouldn’t mind him being similar to Vick after his performance on Monday night.

There is also a good chance that left tackle Jake Long will be able to play Thursday, so Thigpen should have the necessary protection to play his game. I have a good feeling about this game. Our offense won’t be robotic any longer. We may actually see a couple big plays. The Dolphins let the offense loosen up a little bit, and that was evident with the long flea-flicker play from Henne to Brian Hartline.

Thanks for reading, and I hope you are ready for some early football.

Go back to Dolphins Fan Spot 

http://www.dolphinshout.com/

Defensive Tackle/3-4 defensive end 

Duke

6-5 303

40 time: 5.43

Draft board overall prospect rank: #98

Draft board defensive tackle rank: #10

Overall rating: 69*

4/2/10: A 5.29 forty was just the start, after a 5.43 at The Combine, but Oghobaase looked much healthier today than he did a month ago. He’s a first round talent when healthy, the issue is, with his injuries, past and present, he’s probably a 4th rounder.

1/20/10: I loved him before the season, but injuries and inconsistencies on the field have brought him back down my board after I called him a 1^st round prospect last year. If he can put it all together, he’s a fierce intimidating force on the defensive line as a 315 pound pass rusher who can control multiple blockers and may the edge rushers even better. He can play in both 4-3 and 3-4 schemes.

Update (11/2/09): Completely different player this year in a bad way. It may be injuries that are plaguing him but, he’s hurting his draft stock.

            8/24/09: Very few people have heard of Oghobaase, mostly because Duke is known for basketball and education, rather than football. However, he’s the real deal as a football player. He’s big at 310 and has a low body fat percentage for someone of that weight, but his size isn’t even his best attribute. He’s a great interior pass rusher. He had 6 sacks last season at 4-3 nose tackle for the Blue Devils. One of my favorite things in football is a big pass rushing 4-3 nose tackle, because he can free up one on one matchups in pass rush for everyone else on the defense because you almost have to double team him. That’s the reason why Albert Haynesworth, 7.5 sacks at 317 pounds last year, was so valuable and why the Titans were so good. It has been proven that other defensive lineman have struggled after leaving Haynesworth in Tennessee, while other’s have emerged as pass rushers once going to Tennessee. Tennessee will learn this year Haynesworth’s value as he is now in Washington. This is not to say that Oghobaase is as good as Haynesworth, but he’s built in the mold of Haynesworth. He’s a big interior rush presence that isn’t a liability against the run. His timed speed is average for his size, but his quickness is amazing for his size. He is a tough run stopper as well and could play 3-4 nose tackle. However, 3-4 nose tackle is not right for him because it wouldn’t optimize his pass rushing ability. He can play 4-3 under tackle, 4-3 nose tackle, and 3-4 defensive end. The only concerns would be his motor which is not always 100%. His stats last year and the impact he had on the team were good, but not great and he’s shown flashes of brilliance which lead me to believe that if is motor is on 100% more he could do some amazing things in the NFL. In his defense, it is hard to have your motor on 100% when you’re that big, even Haynesworth has hustle problems, but for some scouts that is a big red flag. I think that scouts will start to take more notice to the impact Oghobaase can have on a football field this season and I think he will wind up a first round prospect because of his versatility. However, he will be more valuable to an NFL team longterm than the average first rounder because of his unique skill set.

NFL Comparison: Tommy Kelly

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

RB Donald Brown (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.8%

He’s not the most talented back, but even with Joseph Addai back last week, Brown still got the bulk of the carries for Indianapolis, rushing for 80 yards and a score on 14 carries. He quietly has double digit carries in each of his last 4 games.

RB Toby Gerhart (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.9%

Adrian Peterson is expected to miss another game this week. Gerhart didn’t have the best week last week with 42 yards and a score on 17 carries, but he should find some more running room against Denver this week than he did last week against Atlanta and the former Heisman runner up is always good for volume points as long as Peterson isn’t playing.

WR Greg Little (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.1%

He’s Colt McCoy’s favorite weapon and the rookie receiver quietly has 16 catches for 200 yards and a score in his last 3. He could be coming into his own.

QB Vince Young (Philadelphia)

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.3%

If you lost your starting quarterback to injury (Vick, Schaub, Cutler), you can do a lot worse this week than Vince Young. Young has thrown for 658 yards, 3 touchdowns, 4 picks, and also rushed for another 45 in 2 starts. It appears he’ll get a 3^rd this week over Michael Vick.

WR Vincent Brown (San Diego)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.1%

Malcom Floyd can’t stay healthy and with the exception of one bad game, Brown has 12 catches for 226 yards and a score in his last 3. He’s a starting receiver in what is still a good offense for fantasy points purposes.

WR Riley Cooper (Philadelphia)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

Philadelphia plays on Thursday this week and it doesn’t look like Jeremy Maclin will make it back in time for that game. Cooper has 8 catches for 146 yards and a score in 2 starts in Maclin’s absence.

WR Doug Baldwin (Seattle)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.7%

Baldwin quietly has 39 catches for 604 yards and 2 scores this season. He’ll be Tarvaris Jackson’s favorite target next week once again with Sidney Rice out.

Overall picks: 10-6

ATS Picks: 6-8-2 (-670)

Lock picks: 0-1

Upset picks: 1-1

Miami Dolphins 20 Minnesota Vikings 23

Spread: -6 Vikings

Pick against spread: Miami (2 units) +200

I believe, the main reason why Brett Favre came back from retirement, despite a bad ankle, was not necessarily to win a Super Bowl, but rather to beat the Saints, against whom he lost to end last season, a team that had been bad mouthing him all offseason. Beating the Saints in that opener was what he came back for and now that he didn’t do it, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of attitude he comes out with this week. Will he play like a dejected 40 year old quarterback with a bad ankle, or will it motivate him to play through the pain? More likely, I think it’s the former, which is bad news for the Vikings. Favre played bad enough last week in a discombobulated loss to the Saints and it’s not like his supporting cast is going to help him all that much. Favre was pressured on almost every snap against the Saints and it’s obvious he missed Sidney Rice, as the only Minnesota wideout who looked remotely decent last week was Greg Camarillo, who, as of a month ago, was a Miami Dolphin.

That being said, the Dolphins defense isn’t the Saints defense. I think the Vikings will actually be able to put some points up this week. The Dolphins secondary is not very good, though Trent Edwards made them look great last week in a win against the lowly Bills. Let’s not forget Chad Henne didn’t look too sharp last week either, as he appeared to have regressed after a strong finish to last season, his first as a starter. The Vikings are still my pick to win this game, but I’m not going to take them against a 6 point spread.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Atlanta Falcons 34

Spread: -7 Falcons

Pick against spread: Atlanta (3 units) +300

The fact that the Cardinals almost lost to the Rams last week is not a good sign. Derek Anderson didn’t look nearly as good as his stats looked as he often threw off target. If it wasn’t for a major breakdown in coverage for the Rams late, Anderson probably would not have thrown that game winning touchdown to Fitzgerald. The Falcons are better defensively than the Rams and should force Anderson into many incompletions and interceptions. Anderson is the type of quarterback who can put points on the board in a hurry with his big arm so the Falcons could give up some points here, but Anderson’s turnovers are going to turn into shorter fields for the Falcons offense, who are a lot better than the Steelers made them look last week.

Baltimore Ravens 21 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Spread: -3 Ravens

Pick against spread: Baltimore (3 units) -330

The Bengals didn’t look very good offensively last week, until the Patriots switched to a prevent defense, to force the Bengals into short completions and run out the clock. That was the Patriots inexperienced defense they were faced. Imagine what Baltimore is going to do to them. The Ravens looked amazed last week defensively and it wasn’t just because Mark Sanchez didn’t test them deep. That run defense stuffed the run in 1^st and 2^nd down and forced the Jets into tough deep throws. The Ravens secondary is depleted by injury right now and could have trouble covering guys like TO, Ochocinco, Shipley, and Gresham, but if they can stuff the run early, they’ll limit this offense a lot. The Bengals bread and butter is the run with Cedric Benson, who will be taken out of this game. If the Ravens can avoid stupid penalties/turnovers offensively, they’ll be able to score enough to win this low scoring contest.

Kansas City Chiefs 21 Cleveland 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -2 Browns

Pick against spread: Kansas City (3 units) +300

The Chiefs offense, especially their passing game, didn’t look very good in an upset win on Monday Night Football over the San Diego Chargers. The only reason they won is because they forced turnovers which led to points and because they got a long run from Jamaal Charles. Turnovers are notoriously inconsistent from week to week so that’s not a reliable way to win ballgames. However, the Browns are a very turnover prone team. Throughout the entire preseason, Jerome Harrison struggled with fumbles, something he continued to do in week 1. Peyton Hillis, the backup running back, also joined the fumble party week 1, and don’t even get me started on Jake Delhomme, who is capable of throwing 3 picks on any given Sunday no matter the opponent. The Chiefs are going to take a few takeaways that lead directly to touchdowns/field goals and that’s how they’re going to win this ugly contest.

If Jake Delhomme is hurt and misses this game, which is looking like a possibility, I give the Browns a better shot, but I still pick the Chiefs. Seneca Wallace is not the type of guy who you can count on to lead a team to victory.

Chicago Bears 14 Dallas Cowboys 20

Spread: -7 ½ Cowboys

Pick against spread: Chicago (1 unit) +100

Neither of these teams looked very good week 1. The Bears won, but could have easily lost. The Cowboys lost, but could have easily won if Alex Barron didn’t feel it was necessary to strange his man in protection on what would have been the game winning touchdown play. The Cowboys are still the better team here with all of their offensive weapons, but I’m definitely not picking them to cover that ridiculous 7.5 point spread. Tony Romo is going to be under pressure all night because the Cowboys offensive line can’t pass protect. Julius Peppers should have a field day on Doug Free and we all know about Alex Barron and how penalty prone he is on the right side of that line. Jay Cutler is going to be under pressure a lot too as Chicago’s mediocre line attempts to keep DeMarcus Ware away from Cutler as Cutler sets up for a Mike Martz patented 9 step drop.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Detroit Lions 17

Spread: -6 ½ Eagles

Pick against spread: Philadelphia (1 unit) -110

If Matt Stafford were starting this game at 100%, over Shaun Hill, I would pick the Lions. The Eagles didn’t look very good at all last week until Michael Vick came into the game and that’s only because Vick caught the Packers by surprise. They were not expecting to have to face a running quarterback like Vick for more than 5-7 snaps. The Lions defense will be better prepared, but they’re still not very good and Shaun Hill is going to have his work cut out for him trying to keep him.

The strength of the Lions defense is their defensive line. Ndamukong Suh had a strong first game of his career week 1 and should have another one with Eagles center Jamaal Jackson out for the season. The Eagles offensive line was bad to begin with, but it just got a whole lot worse with Jackson out, especially on the interior of the line where Suh plays. Suh is going to take on blockers and free up guys like Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Corey Williams to pressure Vick. The issue, Vick can handle pressure well, by simply evading it and scrambling. He’s not a great passing quarterback. He’s never been one, even before his stint in the big house. However, he should be able to lead successful drives, provided he makes smart decisions, against this Lions defense as their back 7, especially their secondary, is miserable.

Shaun Hill is a game manager, but he’ll have to throw downfield a lot more to keep up, something he’s simply not capable of doing. It doesn’t help that, if he gets down early, he’ll be under significant pressure. Jeff Backus is not an adequate blindside protector and Trent Cole is going to destroy him the way Julius Peppers did week 1.

Buffalo Bills 13 Green Bay Packers 31 lock pick

Spread: -14 Packers

Pick against spread: Packers (2 units) +200

My lock picks should be called unlock picks. Over the past 10 weeks, my lock picks are 6-4, a worse win/loss percentage than my non-lock picks, which sit in the .660 range. However, this one I’m confident about. The Bills are a mess of a team incapable of leading a successful offensive drive and the Packers are absolutely an offensive juggernaut who will win this game in a blowout. I pick them against the spread, even though the spread is -14, which is saying a lot.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Tennessee Titans 21

Spread: +5 ½ Titans

Pick against spread: Steelers (1 unit) +100

The Steelers won week 1, a surprise to many, though not to me because I picked them. However, I don’t expect them to repeat that game. The Titans won’t be as unprepared as the Falcons. They know what’s coming with Dennis Dixon and not to take this team, especially this defense, lightly. The Titans also have a better pass rush, which means young Dennis Dixon is going to be under a lot of pressure from all spots on the field. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is horrible. They won’t be able to protect Dixon, which could lead to some Dixon turnovers. The Titans also are looking at this game as a revenge game for week 1 in 2009. These are completely different teams now. Vince Young is now the Titans starter over Kerry Collins. Big Ben is suspended and Dennis Dixon is in. Chris Johnson is also regarded as the best running back in the league. All of 3 of those things favor the Titans winning this rematch and improving to 10-2 since Vince Young took over week 7 last year.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Denver Broncos 19

Spread: -3 ½ Broncos

Pick against spread: Seahawks (1 unit) -110

The Seahawks looked great to start this season as Matt Hasselbeck looked 29 again. However, he looked 29 again to start last season, going 25 for 36 for 279 yards and 3 scores. By week 2, he looked like an old man again. I expect something similar to happen to the soon to be 35 year old Hasselbeck this year. However, the Broncos aren’t a good team either. They’ll have trouble pressuring Hasselbeck, which is really what turns him into an old man. I think the Broncos will win over a now overrated Seahawks squad, but I won’t pick them to cover, just in case.

St. Louis Rams 16 Oakland Raiders 23

Spread: -3 ½ Raiders

Pick against spread: Raiders (2 units) -220 

The Raiders lost pretty badly last week to the Titans, but the Rams aren’t the Titans. They are bad. The Rams are 6-43 in their last 49 games. They should be a much easier opponent for the Raiders in their home opener. The Raiders are better then they looked in their messy opener. Provided they keep the mental mistakes to a minimum, they’ll both win and cover here.

New England Patriots 28 New York Jets 13

Spread: -3 Patriots

Pick against spread: Patriots (4 units) -440 

The Patriots looked amazing week 1, even better than their 14 point win would suggest. They legitimately looked like the 2007 Patriots and were good in every facet of the game, especially that amazing offense. The Jets were a mess in their first game, tying a franchise record for least first downs in a game. The Patriots defense isn’t the Ravens defense, but it still remains to be seen if Mark Sanchez can beat a team through the air. If not, he’ll have to rely on an ancient LT and a fumble prone Shonn Grenne. And if Tom Brady puts points up on the board fast, forget it, Sanchez won’t be able to do anything to keep up. The Jets defense is good, but even if Darrelle Revis, who looked sluggish by his standards, takes Randy Moss out of the game, I don’t know if you can count on Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson to shut down their guys and Tom Brady is an equal opportunity quarterback. If you’re open, he’ll throw it to you and he’s got plenty of solid options, more than he had last year when he had a strong passing performance against the Jets in a Patriot win.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 San Diego Chargers 23

Spread: -7 Chargers

Pick against spread: Jaguars (1 unit) -110

The Chargers do this every September and get away with it every September. I am very hesitant to pick the Chargers this week, but I will against a Jacksonville team that barely beat a confused Broncos team, and now has to travel 3 times zones to San Diego. The balls will be flying through the air in warm, sunny San Diego. Philip Rivers is one of the best in the business as a quarterback and the Jaguars simply can’t stop anyone through the air. I’m not going to pick the Chargers to cover though. It’s too risky against a ridiculous -7 spread, after that abysmal loss week 1 on Monday Night Football.

Houston Texans 28 Washington Redskins 27

Spread: -3 Texans

Pick against spread: Washington (1 unit) -10

The Texans need to prove two things this week. That they can avoid a hangover after the biggest win in franchise history and win again and that they can win with a balanced attack. Arian Foster won’t do that every week. He’ll be good, but he won’t do that every week. Now they need to balance that running attack with their strong passing attack and if they can do that, this is an elite offense that can win any game. If not, they will once again struggle to make the playoffs. I expect them to barely come out a win against a good Washington squad here, just because I think they’ll be able to balance their attack well and put a ton of points on the board in a comeback win. I do expect them to trail early though as a young team coming off that amazing win.

New York Giants 21 Indianapolis Colts 34

Spread: -6 Colts

Pick against spread: Colts (3 units) +300

There’s no way the Colts drop 2 to open the season. Forget the alleged Super Bowl loss hangover. This is a mature team that’s won a Super Bowl before. Losing one won’t phase them as much as it would a team that lost their first Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is too good and I expect him to have a great game and win and cover in this game against his younger brother Eli.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 Carolina Panthers 31

Spread: -3 ½ Panthers

Pick against spread: Buccaneers (1 unit) +100

Matt Moore should have better game this week, against Tampa Bay rather than New York, and they should win, but it’ll be a close shoot out game. Josh Freeman is better than people give him credit for, though I like Moore in a close game more than Freeman. However, I’m not picking the Panthers to cover the spread.

New Orleans Saints 35 San Francisco 49ers 24

Spread: -6 Saints

Pick against spread: Saints (2 units) -220

The 49ers shouldn’t panic if they lose this game because they can still win the division easily if they do. They are the most talented team in the division, plus, it’s very likely that every NFC West team loses this week. That being said, the 49ers won’t win this game. They’ll be more motivated than the Saints having a rare Monday Night home game, but the 49ers are exactly the type of team the Saints beat and that’s a team with an unsteady quarterback. Brees will dominate this mediocre 49ers secondary, put points on the board, and force Alex Smith to match, which won’t happen. He’ll just commit turnovers which is what the Saints defense loves and what fuels the Saints offense. Think Saints/Falcons from 2009, either of their meetings, and that’s what this game will look like.

32. Buffalo Bills 0-5

The Bills had a good chance to win this week, with the Jaguars coming to town, worn out after giving Indy everything they had the week before. The Bills led, but they blew it. It could be a while before they get a legitimate chance to win a game again. They do face Cleveland, Kansas City, and Detroit this year, but those are the only three teams they play the rest of the way that had worse than .500 records in 2009. All 3 of those teams, Detroit, Kansas City, and Cleveland are better than them, and if they lose all three, getting a single win is going to be tough for them to do, unless they surprise a team like Cincinnati or Miami.

31. Cleveland Browns 1-4

Seneca Wallace and Jake Delhomme are both expected out this week, so Colt McCoy will make his NFL debut. The timing isn’t great as he has to go into Pittsburgh. McCoy was listed as 3rd on the depth chart this season for a reason. They didn’t feel he was NFL ready and didn’t want to throw him out there before he was ready. He really struggled in the preseason and was almost cut, despite being drafted as a supposed savior in the 3rd round in 2010. If McCoy struggles against Pittsburgh and in any starts he may have after that (New Orleans, New England) this team might finally have no choice but to go quarterback in the first round yet again, even though the last two (Brady Quinn, Tim Couch) didn’t turn out too well.

30. Carolina Panthers 0-5

Carolina quarterbacks have a 43.6 QB rating this season. For comparison, Derek Anderson in 2009 had a 42.1 QB rating and JaMarcus Russell in 2009 had a 50.0. Hell, even Jake Delhomme had a 59.4 last year. A lot of the blame for that has to be put on the offensive line. Once one of the best in the league, their line has given up 17 sacks on 150 passing attempts this season. Their wide receivers can also be blamed, but of course some of the blame has to fall on Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen themselves. The two of them couldn’t even beat Todd Collins, who threw 6 completions to 4 interceptions last week for the Bears. While Matt Moore is likely never going to become a solid NFL signal caller, Jimmy Clausen, being only a rookie, still has some potential, but they need to improve around him if they still feel he is the future

In order to build around him, I think the Panthers should trade DeAngelo Williams. They could probably, at worst, get a 2nd rounder and a mid rounder for him. He’s a free agent after the season anyway and they do have Jonathan Stewart. Those picks would be necessary to rebuilding this team because it’s going to take a lot. They need an elite wide receiver, some major help on the defensive line, help in the secondary, and help on the offensive line. 

29. San Francisco 49ers 0-5

San Francisco 49ers owner Jed York says the 49ers will win the NFC West. That could actually happen. The NFC West is that bad. But, they should probably win a game before they make big proclamations. However, they still face Arizona twice, St. Louis twice, Seattle once, as well as Carolina and Oakland. They’ve shown flashes of good things. Alex Smith looks great out of the no huddle spread and I believe they should go to that full time. He’s simply so much more comfortable in it than their normal offense. His best work has come in the 2 minute drill, leading late drives in losses to Philadelphia and New Orleans.

28. Oakland Raiders 2-3

The Oakland Raiders have won the Super Bowl!!! Well, not THE Super Bowl, but THEIR Super Bowl. They played their hearts out against San Diego and beat the team they hadn’t beaten in 7 years. In the scheme of things, it probably won’t matter. This team is probably still going to end up with double digit losses for the 7th straight year, but don’t try to tell them or their wins that this week. To them, they just won their Super Bowl.

27. Detroit Lions 1-4

I can’t remember the last time an 0-4 blew out a team as badly as the Lions blew out the Rams, winning by 38. Because of all their close losses earlier this season, they actually now have a differiental of +14, despite being 1-4. Imagine if Matt Stafford was healthy. As long as Stafford heals from his injury well and doesn’t get re-injured, they finally have a bright future, especially with what seems like another top 10 pick on the way. Speaking of injuries, the Lions stupidly left their starters out in a blow out and Calvin Johnson got hurt as could miss this week’s game. The Lions averaged 5 points a game with Johnson out last year and now they have to face the Giants. Bad timing. 

26. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-2

At 3-2, with a win over the Colts, the Jaguars are actually in position to be in first place after this weekend, if they beat the Titans at home on Monday Night and if the Texans lose to the Chiefs. However, that doesn’t mean they are good. They’re 3rd in the league in points allowed, behind Buffalo and Arizona and have a differential of -30. They don’t play good defense at all and can’t stop anyone, especially through the air, and its not like their quarterback is that great either. They’re still going to finish with about 6 or 7 wins.

25. St. Louis Rams 2-3

Maybe everyone overrated the Rams. After winning two in a row and looking to be in prime position to take over the division going to Detroit to play the winless Lions with Arizona playing New Orleans and Seattle on bye, the Rams lost by 38 in Detroit. I guess the Rams couldn’t possibly win 3 in a row without the world imploding in on itself. The Rams look to get back on track with the road sick San Diego Chargers coming to town. The Chargers have already lost to Seattle, Oakland, and Kansas City on the road this season.

24. Seattle Seahawks 2-2

Bye

23. Arizona Cardinals 3-2

If I were a team in the NFC West other than the Rams, I think I’d rather lose the division than win it. I’d rather lose it and get a top 10 pick to use on one of the top 3 quarterbacks than win it and make the playoffs win 6 or 7 wins and get my ass handed to me and have to look forward to starting Matt Hasselbeck/Charlie Whitehurst, Alex Smith/David Carr, or Max Hall/Derek Anderson in 2011.

Speaking of Max Hall, everyone is singing his praises after he “outplayed” Drew Brees to beat the defending Super Bowl champs. Hall for 17 for 28 for 168 yards and didn’t even throw a touchdown. He also threw a pick. The rest of the team played amazing and unlike Derek Anderson, Hall didn’t mess anything up. That the type of quarterback he is. If everything goes right, he won’t get in your way.

22. Cincinnati Bengals 2-3

I guess their poor play at the end of last season was no fluke. This team just really isn’t that good. I don’t think they can be until Carson Palmer is no longer their quarterback. This is a talented team and Palmer still isn’t taking them anywhere. He’s never won a playoff game. If they get a chance in the first to take a quarterback that they view as a guy who they can win the Super Bowl with, they have to take him. If not, they have to at least take a developmental guy in the mid rounds. The answer isn’t on their roster.

21. Denver Broncos 2-3

The Broncos got their asses handed to them against Baltimore, but that was to be expected. Just goes to show, one dimensional teams that are “soft” don’t do very well against Baltimore. As notable from that game, Kyle Orton threw for 314 yards against a Baltimore pass defense that was #1 in the league and hadn’t given up more than 167 yards to a quarterback all season. Granted most of that was in garbage time, and it didn’t matter because Denver couldn’t run, and because Denver stinks in the red zone, but in Kyle Orton’s pursuit of Dan Marino, it definitely helps. Orton is on pace for 5536 yards, which would break Marino’s record of 5084. Baltimore was easily his toughest test. I would find it hillarious to see Kyle Orton holding the record for most passing yards in a season. Imagine if Denver could run, or stop anyone, or do anything in the red zone. They’re only averaging 20.4 points per game thanks to their red zone “offense.” In fact, quarterbacks this year are 1-8 when throwing for 400 yards. Reason why, if you have to throw that much, it normally means you’re trailing. Orton is also on pace for 682 passing attempt, 9 back of Drew Bledsoe’s record from 1994.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1

The Buccaneers got their win over Cincinnati this week, to improve to 3-1. Cincinnati, believe it or not, was probably their best win so far, because their first two wins were against Cleveland and Carolina, who are a combined 1-9. This week they have the defending Super Bowl champs coming into town, their biggest game in years. If they can win that one, they’re a legit playoff contender, as they would have a 1.5 game lead over New Orleans and own the tiebreaker. More importantly, a win over the Super Bowl champs, however reeling they are, would be the best way for them to say, we are here and we have arrived. Huge game for Josh Freeman and company. Huge game for Drew Brees and his company too as a loss to Tampa Bay would be crushing to any remaining hopes of repeating they may have.

19. Kansas City Chiefs 3-1

The Chiefs may have lost to the Colts, but everyone knew they would. What I didn’t expect was how legit their defense would look. Peyton Manning was held to no touchdowns, something that rarely happens for him, and the Colts were held under 20 points, another rarity. However, they still lost thanks to their offense. The Colts defense isn’t even that good and Matt Cassel still couldn’t lead a touchdown drive as the Chiefs scored a mere 9 points. Good news though, for the first time this season, Todd Haley gave more carries to Jamaal Charles than Thomas Jones. Charles had 109 more yards than Jones on 15 fewer carries going into week 4 and than rushed for 87 yards on 16 carries and caught 3 balls for 14 yards week 4. It’s clear he is the better back by far and it looks like Todd Haley may have finally realized it. Charles fantasy owners may rejoice, including one of the workers at CBS, who posted the following on screen during the Colts game (real screen shot). Said worker was likely fired, but he’s still my hero.

18. Miami Dolphins 2-2

Bye

17. Philadelphia Eagles 3-2

Kevin Kolb gets hurt, Michael Vick comes in goes 16 for 24 for 175 yards and a touchdown, rushes for 103 yards, and then goes 21 for 34 for 284 yards, 2 touchdowns and 34 rushing yards the next week against a bad Detroit defense and gets the starting job. Michael Vick gets hurt, Kolb comes in goes 22 for 35 for 201 yards, a touchdown, and interception, with 21 rushing yards and then goes 21 for 31 for 253 yards, a score, and 17 rushing yards and Vick’s still the starter? Huh? Keep in mind that Kolb, is younger, isn’t a free agent after the season, was the starter to begin the year, and didn’t kill dogs.  Huh?

16. Dallas Cowboys 1-3

This team needs to get themselves together. This week’s game against the Vikings is essentially a win or go home game. They aren’t going to make the playoffs if they fall to 1-4 and the Vikings are playing better than them right now. The Cowboys looked disfunctional against the Titans, while the Vikings showed some good chemistry offensively late once the rain cleared up, with Brett Favre and Randy Moss playing like they were old teammates.

15. Tennessee Titans 3-2

When Chris Johnson goes over 100 yards, this team is 3-0. In fact, in Johnson’s career, the Titans are 15-4 when Chris Johnson goes over 100 yards. This team’s offense relies on the run first, especially Vince Young (11-2 when CJ goes over 100) Unfortunately, unlike last year, CJ2K no longer goes over 100 yards every week and the Titans have yet to win back-to-back games. They’ll aim to do that this week against the Jaguars, who don’t have a great run defense normally, but will be fired up taking on a divisional opponent at home on Monday Night Football.

14. Minnesota Vikings 1-3

The Vikings really seemed to click in the 2nd half last week after the end of the world esque rains stopped and the football was actually able to be gripped. Brett Favre and Randy Moss clicked like they were old teammates and this wasn’t some cupcake defense they were doing this against. It was the New York Jets in the Meadowlands. Favre’s injuries and possible sexual harassment allegations should be concerning for this team, but their play in the 2nd half last week has to have them feeling good going with Dallas coming into town in a must win for both teams.

13. Washington Redskins 3-2

The Redskins won last week in overtime against the extremely banged up Green Bay Packers, their 2nd overtime game and 1st overtime win after they blew it at home against Houston week 2.  The NFC East has not been as beastly as it was projected at the beginning of the season so the Redskins, who was everyone’s favorite pick to come in last in this division, could end up winning the whole thing. Dallas is underacheiving, Philly can’t stop anyway one keep anyone out of the backfield, and the Giants are inconsisnent.

12. Houston Texans 3-2

The Texans looked really bad this week. They won’t be that bad every week, obviously, but they aren’t an elite team anymore and they really have to be to win 10+ games against their schedule. They still have games against Indy, San Diego (midseason form), Tennessee (twice), Philly, The Jets, and Baltimore this season. In the tough AFC, I am starting to think that my early season projection that this is not a playoff team, at least not this year against this schedule, is correct.

11. New York Giants 3-2

The Giants have looked great in the past two weeks against Houston and Chicago, but I just get the feeling with this team that they could just start underachieving again at any time. They are an extremely talented team capable of being one of the best teams in the NFC when right, and with no clear favorite in the NFC right now with Green Bay hurt and New Orleans hungover, they could win this league, but at the same time, I saw how bad they looked against Indy and Tennessee.

10. Chicago Bears 4-1

Has a worse quarterbacking performance ever led to a 17 point win before? Todd Collins threw 6 completions to 4 interceptions on 23 throws against Carolina in a 23-6 victory. Luckily for him, Matt Forte ran crazy on Carolina’s defense and both Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore played ever worse for the Panthers. Ugh, what’s with all these bad quarterbacks.

9. New Orleans Saints 3-2

I’m really interested to see if last week’s loss was a wakeup call for this team. In their first 4 games, they didn’t play well. They were favored in all 4 games and failed to cover all 4 times, but they were still 3-1 and that one loss was against the Falcons, who are a very good team in their own right, so on paper they didn’t look like they were having a bad season. Having lost to the Kurt Warner less Cardinals, who by the way they beat last week when they did have Kurt Warner, you can no longer say they look good on paper. They obviously have a Super Bowl hangover. They are a talented team, however, so that loss to Arizona could be the cold water to the face that they needed to snap them out of their hangover. Big game this week against Tampa Bay. If they lose this one, I think they can kiss repeating goodbye.

8. San Diego Chargers 2-3

I almost don’t want to write anything here. We need to see what they look like in midseason form before we can determine whether or not this is really a bad team. They’ve shown flashes, but they’re still 2-3 at the same time with their 3 losses coming against Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle. If they lose this week in St. Louis, what would be their 4th straight loss on the road, they are in trouble. I hope they realize that and play like it because this has been one of the sloppiest, if not the sloppiest team in the league this year. Philip Rivers is outthrowing Kyle Orton, yet like the Broncos they are 2-3.

7. New England Patriots 3-1

The Patriots had a bye last week, but I do want to say something about the Deion Branch trade. The price was a bit head scratching. We got a 3rd rounder only for Moss, but then give up a 4th for Deion Branch. Is Moss only one round better than Branch? However, We did have 2 4th rounders and got one in a steal for Laurence Maroney, so that makes it a little better. I love the fit in New England for Branch. Branch is still talented if he can stay healthy and he knows Brady and this scheme well. It also shows a switch to a more spreading the ball around approach. Brady would often force the Moss to ball when he had Moss because Moss was so good. Brady’s at his best when he doesn’t play favorites, when he can spread the ball around to a bunch of different receivers. That’s how they won 3 Super Bowls. Branch was one of those many receivers who were productive catching from Brady in Brady’s Super Bowl years and while they’ll miss Moss’ deep threat ability, I do like their switch in philosophy back to something that worked. Expect them to spread the ball around to Wes Welker, and Branch, and Brandon Tate, and Aaron Hernandez, and Rob Gronkowski, and Julian Edelman and all those guys. 

6. Green Bay Packers 3-2

I don’t understand this. First I pick the Red Sox to go all the way in Spring Training and their whole team gets hurt. Then I pick the Packers to go all the way in the preseason and their whole team gets hurt. Jermichael Finley is probably done for the year. Ryan Grant, Justin Harrell, and Morgan Burnett are done for the season, as is Derrick Martin. Mark Tauscher’s hurt. Donald Lee’s hurt. Clay Matthews’ hurt (don’t tell him that though, or he might eat you). Ryan Pickett’s hurt. Nick Barnett’s hurt. Even Aaron Rodgers could miss this week’s game due to a concussion sustained in overtime last week, marking the first time a Green Bay backup has had to start a game at quarterback since 1991. If they can avoid more long term injuries, they could still go far this season, but it’s certainly not looking as good as it was before the season.

5. New York Jets 4-1

I still say Mark Sanchez has an elite quarterback is what’s keeping this from being a Super Bowl team. Despite excellent protection, Sanchez couldn’t complete more than 50% of his passes against the Vikings last week. I would blame the rain, but he didn’t look all that much better in the second half and it’s not like Minnesota’s pass defense is that amazing. Everything else is there though on this team and they’re very efficient. Sanchez hasn’t thrown a pick all season and they haven’t committed a turnover since week 1. 

4. Baltimore Ravens 4-1

Like the Jets, this team has all the pieces. They’re just waiting on the quarterback. Could Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez win a Super Bowl for their respective teams. Yeah, they could with the talent around them. Are they likely going to? I’m going to say no. Flacco has certainly looked better since that Cincinnati game, but he struggled against Pittsburgh until that last drive (though everyone struggles against Pittsburgh) and the other two games were against Cleveland and Denver, so let’s not get too excited. I need to see more out of Flacco.

3. Atlanta Falcons 4-1

Like the Jets and Ravens, this team is on the verge of being elite. They are all young at the quarterback position, but I’d take Ryan over Flacco and Sanchez right now and that’s why they’re ranked higher. Atlanta’s defense isn’t elite like Baltimore or the Jets, but they are playing much, much better than I expected. The running game is certainly there too with Michael Turner and Jason Snelling.

2. Indianapolis Colts 3-2

After a 3-2 start, all the talk is about how the Colts just aren’t as good as they normally are. Their two losses were against teams that were playing their hearts out to beat them, and one of those was only because the other team’s kicker nailed an amazing shot at the end of regulation. They didn’t throw for a touchdown against Kansas City, but that’s because Kansas City’s stop unit has suddenly become good, especially through the air. No need to worry in Indy. Much like when they started 3-4 in 2008, they’ll be okay. I expect them to win 12-4 once again and have an advantage going into the playoffs over all these young, up and coming teams, in that they’ve been there before.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

Bye

Updated 4/4/12

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT NT 3-4 DE OLB MLB CB S K P

Scoring System

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
<40 No NFL Future

1. Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) 90

2. Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) 89

3. Kendall Wright (Baylor) 87

4. Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech) 82

5. Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma) 78

6. Reuben Randle (LSU) 77

7. Mohamed Sanu (Rutgers) 77

8. Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina) 76

9. Chris Givens (Wake Forest) 74

10. Nick Toon (Wisconsin) 74

11. Juron Criner (Arizona) 73

12. Joe Adams (Arkansas) 72

13. Marvin McNutt (Iowa) 71

14. Gerell Robinson (Arizona State) 71

15. Marvin Jones (California) 71

16. Dwight Jones (North Carolina) 70

17. TY Hilton (Florida International) 69

18. Tommy Streeter (Miami) 66

19. Greg Childs (Arkansas) 65

20. Brian Quick (Appalachian State) 64

21. Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M) 62

22. AJ Jenkins (Illinois) 61

23. TJ Graham (NC State) 60

24. Jarius Wright (Arkansas) 59

25. Danny Coale (Virginia Tech) 58

26. Devon Wylie (Fresno State) 57

27. DeVier Posey (Ohio State) 57

28. Tim Benford (Tennessee Tech) 56

29. LeVon Brazill (Ohio) 55

30. Chris Owusu (Stanford) 52

31. Risard Matthews (Nevada) 51

32. BJ Cunningham (Michigan State) 48

33. Jordan White (Western Michigan) 45

Spotlight #1: Oklahoma State OT Levy Adcock

Spotlight #2: Oklahoma OT Donald Stephenson 

1^st quarter

12:39: Adcock goes down on a run block, but his man doesn’t.

12:15: Adcock with a whiffed cut block. He’s been on Frank Alexander early in this one.

11:18: Adcock allows a tackle for loss or no gain on 3^rd down and short, not converted.

9:43: Justin Blackmon with a great catch that won’t count because it was out of bounds. There was no way to bring this in, but he showed great leaping ability and hands to catch it in traffic.

6:55: Undersized 5-8 junior cornerback Brodrick Brown picks off Landry Jones in the end zone for his 5^th pick of the year. Jones did force it into coverage, but just a great individual effort by Brown to rip the ball out of the receiver’s hands.

6:34: Adcock beat by Alexander, needs help from the back.

0:32: Stephenson with holding.

2^nd quarter

4:42: Landry Jones strip sacked by an unblocked blitzing linebacker, taken back to the one by Stephenson’s man Blatnick.

3:48: Stephenson does a good job blocking one-on-one for a long period of time for Landry Jones backed up against his own goal line. I’ve been impressed with this kid. One sack allowed all season, good size at 6-6 305. Not sure why he’s a late rounder.

3:43: You could copy and paste what I just said, more good, long blocking one-on-one for Stephenson against the goal line.

1:59: Weeden has been well protected in this game, but Ronnell Lewis is hurt and Frank Alexander has missed a good chunk of this game. He’s back and he’s given Adcock trouble early in the first quarter.