Last week overall: 10-6

Last week ATS: 11-5 (+840/+18%)

Overall picks: 156-84 (.650)

ATS Picks: 127-106-7 (+$2450)

Lock picks: 11-5

Upset picks: 30-33 (+1423)

Week 16 recap: Last week I snapped a 3 week streak of being in the red, making $840, or 18%, which, against a 10% juice, is pretty good. However, I was actually disappointed. I started the week 8-1 straight up (losing by 1 picking the Cowboys) and 8-1 ATS, nailing 20 of my first 23 units.

However, I struggled in the second half of the week. 11-5 ATS is very strong, especially with the amount of money I made, but the 10-6 straight up record was not what I was looking for. I nailed my 5 unit pick (Washington +7 over Jacksonville) and split my two 4 units losing Seattle +6 over Tampa Bay and winning Detroit +3.5 over Miami.  

With my upset picks, I earned $325, going 3-2 with my upset picks. I lost with the Seahawks over Buccaneers and Giants over Packers, but won with Washington (+250) over Jacksonville, Detroit (+165) over Miami, and Denver (+130) over Houston.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 17

Spread: Atlanta -14.5

Pick against spread: Carolina 2 units (-220)

Last week I bet three on the Panthers to cover as large underdogs citing the Steelers inability to win games by large margins. The Panthers lost 27-3, losing against the spread by 9.5 points. This week, I am betting on the Panthers again as large underdogs, citing the Falcons inability to win games by large margins. However, I do have more reasons and I’m not betting three again on a team as terrible as the Panthers.

The Falcons have only won 4 games by 15 or more this season. One of those was against the Panthers in Carolina, but this time should be different. Last week was the biggest game in the Matt Ryan era for the Falcons and they lost. Now they have to play a lowly Panthers team a mere 6 days later with the playoffs locked up and a first round bye and homefield all but locked up. I doubt they show much energy, instead looking forward to the playoffs.

Unlike the Steelers game, this is a division rivalry. The Panthers do well in same season revenge games in the John Fox era, 8-4 ATS, and typically division rivalries are closer than most games. If this team can hang within 2 of a deflated Saints team week 4 (coming off a home loss to the Falcons) in New Orleans, they can hang within 15 of the Falcons this week.

Also, while the Falcons will have 6 days to prepare for the Panthers, the Panthers will have 10 off of Thursday Night Football. Thursday Night Football losers are 6-2 ATS the next week this year. It also helps that the Panthers have already locked up the #1 draft pick. Playing hard won’t hurt them this week. I won’t bet three this week, but I do like Carolina’s chances to keep this within 2 scores. Finally, another trend, double digit favorites off of a loss are 35-62 ATS since 2002. I know I cited this against Pittsburgh last week, but it’s still a strong trend.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 17

Spread: Pittsburgh -6

Pick against spread: Cleveland 2 units (-220)

What happened to Colt McCoy? He looked like the second coming of Steve Young before he went down with his injury. Since returning, he’s lost to the Bengals and thrown 3 picks in a 10 point loss to the Ravens. I can only assume he is still not 100% or perhaps that he has hit a rookie wall. Nonetheless, he could continue to struggle this week against the Steelers.

The Ravens were 3.5 points favorites in Cleveland last week, but the Steelers are now 6 point favorites in Cleveland, which I don’t get. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are two very evenly matched teams as shown by the fact that both of their games were very close, so I see no reason why Pittsburgh is favored by more than 4 here, especially considering the Ravens didn’t exactly blow out the spread last week.

In fact, the Ravens did only win 20-10 despite the 3 picks. I don’t think McCoy will be picked off 3 times again this week, especially since the Steelers are expected to rest Troy Polamalu again. The Steelers’ offense has had trouble scoring in recent weeks (with the exception of the Carolina game) and has been especially bad on the road.

Because of this, they haven’t won a lot of games by large margins on the road, with their last road win by 7+ coming week 3 in Tampa Bay. Also keep in mind, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are a mere 5-13 ATS as road favorites since Tomlin took over as head coach. I moderately like McCoy and the Browns’ chances this week to keep this one close.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 20

Spread: Detroit -3

Pick against spread: Detroit 1 unit (+100)

The Vikings didn’t look half bad on Tuesday Night Football, beating the Eagles and rediscovering their pass rush in the process. Luckily for them, the Lions struggle to protect their quarterback so they could get a few more sacks this week. Brett Favre is expected to get the start this week for Minnesota over Joe Webb who looked decent, but unspectacular against the Eagles last week. I still say they need a new QB in 2011.

The Lions are in an interesting position in this one. They’re favored. They’ve been favored a mere 10 times since the start of the 2006 season and they only covered in 3 of them. However, they didn’t deserve to be favored all that much until this season. They’re playing good football right now and are the better team in this one at home. They have the league’s best record ATS and are on a 3 game winning streak. It may only be for 1 unit, but I like the Lions in this one.

Green Bay Packers 28 Chicago Bears 20

Spread: Green Bay -10.5

Pick against spread: Chicago 1 unit (+100)

Chicago has clinched a first round bye with the Eagles loss to the Vikings on Tuesday. The only way Chicago can get different seed than the one they have now, #2, is if Atlanta loses to Carolina and New Orleans loses to Tampa Bay. I don’t think that combination is all that likely. 

That being said, Chicago might still play fairly hard in this one for several reasons. One, Green Bay is a division rival. Very rarely do you see a team just rollover and let a division rival win, especially win, if said division rival wins, they make the playoffs. The Bears aren’t going to roll over and let the Packers make the playoffs.

The second reason is, in addition to being a division rival, the Packers are also a scary opponent. I think the Bears would much rather the Giants or the Buccaneers sneak into the 6th seed than the Packers. This isn’t a team they want to face in the playoffs and beating them here would eliminate that possibility.

However, I’m still taking the Packers to win. They need this game more and they are the better team, but I find that spread slightly ridiculous. It assumes the Bears will just roll over this week. I’m taking the points for 1.  

New England Patriots 38 Miami Dolphins 17 Lock Pick

Spread: New England -3

Pick against spread: New England 6 units (+600)

This spread suggests that the Patriots will bench or limit their starters this week. I don’t know why. They never do. In fact, in the BB/Brady era, they are 7-2 week 17. Some say they will still rest because of what happened to Wes Welker week 17 last year (and the ensuing beatdown they suffered in the first round of the playoffs the next week). However, the Patriots clinched homefield after week 15. If they were going to rest their starters, why didn’t they last week up 20+ late against the Bills. BB and company haven’t changed.

Like the Bills, the Dolphins are a hated division rival, and even if they weren’t, this team would still give it their all. They almost always do, especially this year when it seems everyone on the team, especially Brady, has a chip on their shoulder. The only reason they didn’t against the Packers is because they saw they were expecting to play Aaron Rodgers and were so relieved to play Flynn instead that they forgot the Packers were good.

Even in the Packers game, they scored 30 points. In fact, the last time they didn’t score 30 was their last loss, week 9 in Cleveland. Going all out once again, I expect them to do the same this week. They’ve gashed defenses better than the Dolphins’ for 30+, including the Packers, Steelers, Jets, and Bears. No one can stop them. The Dolphins and their 14^th ranked pass defense won’t be able to. I can’t see the Dolphins, who have only scored 27+ twice this year, being able to keep up with the way Henne has been playing of late.

I’m going with this for my 2^nd 6 unit pick of the year. The only reason this isn’t 7 or 8 is because there’s a slight chance they could pull Brady early (BB is not exactly the most truthful and easy to read person) for Brian Hoyer, even though that’s not the Patriot way. Even in that situation, they could build an early 10-0 or 10-3 lead and still cover. These teams aren’t even close to being evenly matched. This is my favorite pick of the year (followed by Colts +3 against the Eagles, and the Panthers +10 against Jake Delhomme). Brady -3 against a sub .500 team in New England. Gotta love it.

 

Indianapolis Colts 34 Tennessee Titans 28

Spread: Indianapolis -9.5

Pick against spread: Tennessee 2 units (+200)

Tennessee flat out sucked last week. They showed zero effort in Kansas City and let Matt Cassel and company have their way with them all day. It was really (in the words of the great Jim Mora) a horseshit performance, especially when you consider that their offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger is still there in a losing season coaching despite battling cancer and going through chemo. I thought this team would show a little bit more effort for a coach who is showing all the effort in the world. I guess I was wrong.

However, I do expect the Titans to show up this week. This is a divisional clash against the hated rival Colts. They are only 2-3 against the division this year, but in one of those losses was by 2 points (against these Colts) and in another they were playing with Rusty Smith as their quarterback. Both of their division victories were very impressive, so they should give effort this week like they did two weeks ago against Houston.

The Colts, meanwhile, haven’t been playing the caliber of ball that allows them to cover large spreads like this one. Their last double digit win was week 8 against the Texans which was right before this team started “struggling” (by their standards). A few weeks ago, the Colts, as 3 point favorites on the road, failed to cover against the Titans. The Titans were coming off back to back ugly losses in that one as well so they’re no strangers to covering against the Colts after bad losses.

Oakland Raiders 27 Kansas City Chiefs 21 Upset Pick (+180)

Spread: Kansas City -4

Pick against spread: Oakland 3 units (+300)

Congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs. I’ve doubted them all year, but they clinched the division over the San Diego Chargers with a week to spare. Todd Haley says he will be playing his starters this week, but we can’t know to what extent. If they win, they clinch the 3^rd seed. If they lose and the Colts win, they drop to 4. I doubt they care because either way they will have a home playoff game and play one of two similar teams, the Jets and Ravens.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are trying to complete an improbable 6-0 season in the division and get to 8-8 on the season. They have a good shot to do that even though doing so would mean that the Chiefs would drop their first home game of the season and fall to 7-1. I think finishing 6-0 in the division means more to the Raiders than 8-0 at home means to the Chiefs, who are just trying to get ready for the playoffs.

The Raiders matchup well with the Chiefs. They beat the Chiefs earlier this year in Oakland in large part because they were able to limit Dwayne Bowe, who is by far the Chiefs best and only good receiver. Nnamdi Asomugha should be able to limit Bowe again this week.

I like the Raiders chances to win here in a game that means more to them than the Chiefs. Also, there’s a chance Cassel sits or doesn’t play much to get ready for the playoffs which would mean Brodie “0-10” Croyle would start or play extensively for the Chiefs. Even if the Raiders fall, this should be a close game and I like getting 4 points with the Raiders. Both of these teams are run first teams, especially with Nnamdi Asomugha limiting Bowe and Croyle possibly playing extensively. Those type of games are normally close games, like this one was when the Raiders beat the Chiefs by 3 in Oakland earlier this year.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Spread: Baltimore -9.5

Pick against spread: Baltimore 1 unit (-110)

These Bengals have cost me 7 units in the last 2 weeks betting against them so naturally I was confused as to why they were having this success all of a sudden off of a 10 game losing streak. I concluded that it had something to do with the fact that Carson Palmer always seems to be at his best in December home games, something I overlooked in these past few weeks.

With that established, I think I should be safe picking against this team again this week, now on the road. However, Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, and Jermaine Gresham all did great jobs getting open last week for Carson Palmer and Palmer did a great job of finding them. This offense had a lot of life last week and could show some of that again this week. This young receivers are playing with a lot more heart than Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens.

However, I am going to take the Ravens here. The Ravens have historically done well as double digit favorites in the John Harbaugh era and they have done well against teams with losing records, going 6-2 and 11-4 in those situations respectively. This isn’t a true double digit line, but it’s close enough.

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

Spread: New Orleans -9.5

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 3 units (+300)

Tampa Bay’s defense sucks. They can’t stop anyone without Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy. They let Matt Hasselbeck march the Seahawks straight downfield before he got hurt. The only reason Charlie Whitehurst didn’t do anything is because, well, Charlie Whitehurst sucks. Before the Seattle game, they gave up 252 yards on 23 for 37 to Drew Stanton and 228 yards on 22 for 35 to Donovan McNabb in the two games they had since the Talib injury.

In their last meeting with the Saints, the Bucs gave up 475 yards and that was with Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy in the lineup. They also had Cody Grimm, who is also hurt right now. Grimm had been doing a good job filling in for the suspended Tanard Jackson before he got. This game is also in New Orleans, rather than Tampa Bay, so it’s safe to say the Saints will move the ball well in this one.

However, unlike week 6, the Buccaneers will be able to move the ball. Josh Freeman is coming off of a career game, 21 for 26 for 237 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Buccaneers had yet to discover LeGarrette Blount week 6 so they were unable to gut the Saints’ 19^th ranked run defense. Blount had 164 yards on 18 carries against Seattle’s 16^th ranked run defense last week, so he should have another big game here and certainly will be better than Cadillac Williams, who rushed for 18 yards on 10 carries week 6.

The Buccaneers are a drastically better team than they were week 6. Their box scores show this. They haven’t lost by more than 7 points since that week 6 31-6 defeat at the hands of the Saints. They haven’t had a cupcake schedule since then either, hanging within 7 of the Ravens, 6 of the Falcons, and then once again within 4 of the Falcons. Their only other loss in that time was to the Lions, which might be why this line is so high, but if that’s the case, then Vegas is drastically underestimating the Buccaneers. This is a solid football team.

The Saints struggle as double digit favorites in the Sean Peyton era. This isn’t quite a double digit spread, but it’s close enough and their 3-11 record in that situation is hard to ignore. Finally, the Buccaneers need this game more than the Saints. The Saints are in the playoffs after last week’s victory over the Falcons and will simply be playing for seeding. In fact, if the Falcons beat the lowly Panthers, the Saints won’t be able to get higher than the 5^th seed in this game.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are playing to make the playoffs. They need this win (and some help) to make the playoffs. They need the Giants and Packers to lose if they want to make the playoffs, but they will be playing at the same time as those two teams so they will go into this game still able to make the playoffs.

If this spread is at 10 or 10.5 anywhere, first tell me, then take it for 4, if not, take it for 3. Don’t wait for it to go into double digits because it’s already very high as it is and it’s more likely to drop to 8.5 or 9 than go into double digits.

New York Jets 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Spread: NY Jets -1

Pick against spread: NY Jets 1 unit (+100)

Mark Sanchez practiced on Wednesday and is expected to start for the Jets, but with this game being pretty meaningless for the Jets, he might not play the whole game. The Jets can either get the #5 seed or the #6 seed and no matter which one they get, their opponent will be the Chiefs or the Colts, depending on how those two teams do in their game, something they can’t control.

However, this line is really low. The Bills aren’t a very good team and I think if the Jets play their starters for a quarter and then play their backups for 3, they could still win this one. I’m not putting anymore than 2 on it because of the general uncertainty of the whole situation, but I like the Jets in this one. 

Update: Rex Ryan has said Sanchez won’t play the whole game. The line is down for this reason and a new pick will be posted when a new line is posted. 

Update: There is no definite answer on how much Mark Sanchez will play, though he is expected to play. Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, however, could miss the entire game, which greatly hurts the Jets’ chances. There’s also no telling if any Jets starter will play the whole game, so, while the Jets seem like the right side, it’s a very risky bet on either side. 

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Houston Texans 21 Upset Pick (+135)

Spread: Houston -3

Pick against spread: Jacksonville 2 units (-220)

The Jaguars fell flat on their faces last week as home favorites against a non-conference opponent. They’ll probably play better this week in a divisional, must win game in Houston. They’re also expected to have Maurice Jones Drew back. If he had played last week, they likely would have won, despite all the situations against them. Houston isn’t any better than Washington, who they lost to last week, so with MJD back, they have a good shot to win.

Houston, meanwhile, seems to have forgotten how to win. Whether they come back from large deficits to take the lead, and then blow it late, or blow a large lead early and lose, this team has seemingly lost in every way imaginable this season. They have one win since week 6, and that was against Rusty Smith and the Titans. There’s no way I’m betting on them in a fairly even spread. I don’t love Jacksonville, but I hate the Texans.

Update: David Garrard will underdog finger surgery this week and thus will not be available to play. Trent Edwards will start for the Jaguars. Vegas took this line down and has yet to repost it in the wake of the injury, so my new pick will be posted when the new line is posted. 

Update: With Trent Edwards starting, this line has moved to -3 in favor of Houston. As much as I hate betting on Trent Edwards, I’m not going to bet on the Texans as favorites. Not only are they false favorites (favorites after 2 or more straight losses), they flat out don’t know how to win. Besides, Houston’s secondary is so bad, Trent Edwards might have a good game here. 

Washington Redskins 26 New York Giants 23 Upset Pick (+175)

Spread: -4 NY Giants

Pick against spread: Washington 2 units (+200)

Another year, another second half Giants collapse. In their last 68 minutes, they have been outscored 73-17. They also have losses to Dallas and Philadelphia in the second half. Their only 3 wins were by 4 to the Jags, who dominated for most of the game, and the Redskins and Vikings, who didn’t show up. Eli Manning and company are turnover machines with 41 turnovers on the year, 6 more than 2^nd place Carolina. They can’t be trusted here.

The Redskins may have gotten blown out in their last matchup with the Giants, but they have bounced back well in their last 3, as they are 2-0-1 ATS and they only pushed in that one game, against the Buccaneers, because their special teams exploded. That was a single isolated incident and not a longterm issue. This game is also in Washington where the Redskins will be a lot more motivated than they were a few weeks ago in Washington.

The Giants need this win to make the playoffs and they are favored. Teams tend to struggle to cover in this situation. Based on how the Giants have played these past few weeks, that definitely could happen to them this week. Even if the Redskins don’t walk away with the win here, I like their chances to keep it within 4.

San Francisco 49ers 17 Arizona Cardinals 15

Spread: San Francisco -6.5

Pick against spread: Arizona 4 units (-440)

The San Francisco 49ers fired head coach Mike Singletary after their loss last week to the Rams, a loss that eliminated them from the playoff race. I can’t see this team getting up this week for a Cardinals team that they blew out earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are playing better football of late. Derek Anderson may have put his heart and soul into the shit, but he wasn’t very good. John Skelton has led them to a 2-1 record in his 3 starts, beating the Broncos and the Cowboys, and only losing by 7 to the Panthers on a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast. The Broncos and Cowboys aren’t very good, but then again neither are the 49ers.

The 49ers are favorites of 6.5 here despite their 5-10 record, a bad sign. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse are 19-49 ATS since 2002 when favored by 6 or more points. The 49ers are unable to finish better than 6-10 so this trend obviously applies. This has been my single favorite trend this season and I’m rolling with it again here.

San Diego Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 24

Spread: -3.5 San Diego

Pick against spread: Denver 1 unit (-110)

The San Diego Chargers were eliminated last week when they lost to the Cincinnati Bengals. It just goes to show, you can’t always suck for the first 2 months of the season and expect to then turn it on from November 1^st on. That was their attitude all year, but it didn’t happen.

I don’t know for sure how they’ll react, because they haven’t been eliminated in the Norv Turner/Philip Rivers era before, but I predict they’ll be extremely flat in this one because they have expected to make their comeback all season and it just never happened.

It doesn’t help that San Diego hasn’t been a good road team this year to begin with, at 2-5. Denver is still a tough place to play, especially with the way that Tim Tebow has been playing in his first 2 career starts. The Chargers aren’t the Texans, so Tebow won’t have quite as good of a game this week, but he’s still a very promising quarterback.

The problem is, we aren’t getting any line value. I was expecting this line to be at -6, even following the Chargers loss to the Bengals. I’m still taking the Broncos, because the line is more than a field goal and I think they can keep this one that close, but only for 1 unit.

Dallas Cowboys 28 Philadelphia Eagles 27 Upset Pick (+135)

Spread: Philadelphia -3

Pick against spread: Dallas 1 unit (+100)

Philadelphia is the one team whose week 17 matchup literally means absolutely nothing. They are stuck in the #3 seed no matter if they win or if they lose. Andy Reid has proven before that he will rest starters in meaningless week 17 games. It already looks as if Michael Vick won’t play at all with a quad injury, as backup Kevin Kolb has gotten all the first team reps in practice. Guys like Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy Asante Samuel, Trent Cole, among others, are not expected to play very much at all.

Kevin Kolb is a pretty good quarterback. We’ve seen him have success before in the past, but it’ll be interesting to see how he responds without Maclin and Jackson, not to mention a strong defense supporting him. Lucky for Kolb, the Cowboys defense isn’t much better than Philadelphia second team defense. The Cowboys really struggle to stop people so Kolb and company will put points on the board.

While this game means virtually nothing to the Eagles, it means a lot to the Cowboys. After this miserable season, they want to end it on a high note and a win over the Eagles would certainly be a high note. The Eagles are also a division rival and remember, the Cowboys only lost by 3 to the Eagles earlier this year so there’s a revenge factor in this one.

Stephen McGee will start for the Cowboys. He proved himself to be a decent signal caller last week, maybe even good enough to force some desperate team to trade a pick for him this offseason. Unlike Kolb, McGee will have the full use of his receivers, at least the healthy ones, which means Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Jason Witten.  Against a second team defense, he will put some points on the board as well.

I think it would take someone with a gambling problem to put big money on this game. We simply don’t know how well or how poor the Eagles’ backups will play. Obviously if they play badly, the Cowboys have a very good shot at winning. However, if they play well, the Eagles have the better signal caller in this one and are the home team, which would make it very tough for the Cowboys to win. I’m taking the points for 1. The Cowboys should win this one, but it’s a very risky bet.

St. Louis Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 9

Spread: St. Louis -2.5

Pick against spread: St. Louis 5 units (-550)

The Seattle Seahawks have to have set the record for the worst team to ever be alive in the playoff race week 17. They are 6-9 right now. Since week 6, they have 3 wins, against Jimmy Clausen, Max Hall, and Derek Anderson. Their other three wins were against an early season form Chargers team, a slumping Bears team, and the San Francisco 49ers.

All of their 9 losses have been by 15 points or more. They have a differential of -117. The only teams who have worse differentials, Denver, Buffalo, Arizona, and Carolina. Oh, and to make things worse, their starting quarterback hurt his back on a non-contact play in a meaningless game last week and is not expected to start this week. Instead, it will be Clipboard Jesus, Charlie Whitehurst.

With Whitehurst starting, I give this team no shot. I would have given them a bit of a shot with Hasselbeck, because, in that case, they would be a good home team with a veteran quarterback facing a bad road team with a rookie quarterback in a must win game. However, without Hasselbeck, they don’t have a shot.

 Not only is Whitehurst inexperienced (less experienced than Bradford actually), but he’s also terrible. This team simply can’t move the ball when he’s in the game. In his one start, he was able to lead his team to 7 points all game, and that was a home game against the Giants so you can throw out that Seattle is a good home team with Whitehurst starting. Whitehurst was once again unable to move the ball in the Tampa Bay game, so this is a recurring thing. Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t even good, especially missing Aqib Talib and Gerald McCoy.

St. Louis’ defense is clearly superior to the Bucs’ defense. In fact, their defense might mirror the Giants defense a lot. St. Louis head coach Steve Spagnuolo is a former defensive coordinator for the Giants and his pass rush is just as good as the Giants. The Rams have 41 sacks and the Giants 43. The Rams should have no problem stopping the Seahawks offense.

Sam Bradford might have some jitters on the road in a hostile environment in a must win game, but if Whitehurst plays terribly, this crowd is going to get quiet fast and Bradford should still be able to have a good game against a terrible Seattle defense. Bradford also has the experience edge (in terms of in game experience) so he might be the calmer of the two quarterbacks here. Not to mention, he probably has a lot more confidence in his abilities than Whitehurst.

If Hasselbeck, who has not yet been officially ruled out, plays, I’ll change my pick. It’ll still be St. Louis, but for fewer units. Bradford isn’t quite the same QB on the road as he is at home, but he has two road wins this year against the Broncos and Cardinals. Those teams aren’t any good, but then again, neither are Charlie Whitehurst and the Seahawks.

 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-4

4 games in and Chan Gailey already tops my list of coaches who should be fired (over John Fox, Tom Coughlin, and Eric Mangini). Gailey’s scheme doesn’t work. That’s why the Chiefs went 2-14 and had the one of the league’s worst offenses when Gailey was the offensive coordinator in 2008. It works on a college level, but it doesn’t work in the NFL. The defenses are too smart and too fast to be fooled by a short throw offense. They’ll just stack the box and stagnant your offense. I can kind of see using that scheme with Trent Edwards at quarterback because Edwards throws like a girl (no offense to girls), but Ryan Fitzpatrick has a bit of a stronger arm and they still aren’t setting up anything downfield to guys like Lee Evans (10 catches for 94 yards). 

Gailey also is refusing to use CJ Spiller, whom the front office spent the 9th overall pick on this past April. In 4 games, Spiller has 14 rushes and 12 catches for a total of 94 yards and a score. He used Marshawn Lynch as the feature back (37 carries for 164 yards) and now that they’ve cut ties with Lynch and traded him to Seattle for a 4th and a 6th rounder, Gailey has announced that Fred Jackson 920 carries for 87 yards) will be the starter. I know I didn’t like the Spiller move when it was made, because Lynch and Jackson were already capable of handling the running game, but at least use the kid. 

Also Gailey is starting the wrong quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick turns 28 this November and has 789 career attempts as a 7th rounder pick out of Harvard. You know what you’re going to get out of him by and now and that’s a quarterback that, if everything else possibly goes right around him, will get you to 10-6. He’s not in that top 10 or top 15 tier of quarterbacks that can possibly win you a Super Bowl. My philosophy is that, if you know the guy starting for you isn’t the guy who can get your team where you want it to go, change the guy, whether it be by drafting a quarterback (which they should have done in April and should do this April in the 2011 NFL Draft) or by promoting someone in house. Brian Brohm has 29 career attempts and is a 25 year old former 2nd round pick. Why not see if he’s the guy that can take your team where you want it to go. It can’t hurt. He probably isn’t (17 for 29 for 146 yards and 2 picks in his career), but he’s still young and the Packers did see something in him when they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2008 (despite having Aaron Rodgers).

Finally, plain and simply, Gailey’s team sucks. There’s no getting past that. The Bills have lost by 20 or more points this year twice in 4 games and have yet to win a single game. They’ve lost by 15-10, 34-7, 38-30, and 38-14. That’s bad.

31. Cleveland Browns 1-3

Seneca Wallace did admirably in 3 starts after taking over for an injured Jake Delhomme after week 1. In 3 starts, he led the hapless Browns to a 1-2 record and threw for 554 yards on 52 for 85 with 3 touchdowns and 2 picks. He’s not the type of quarterback that’s going to win you a Super Bowl or anything, but he’s a solid game manager. The catch, they’re going back to Jake Delhomme this week. Come on. Did you expect any different? It’s the Browns. Browns and Bad quarterbacks are synonomous. I’m not sure what attracted them to Delhomme. Was it his 8 touchdowns to 18 picks in 2009? His 5 turnover game in the playoffs in 2008? Or his team killing 2 picks in the opener to lose a close one to the lowly Browns?

30. Detroit Lions 0-4

Further prove the football gods hate the Lions, the Lions are 0-4 and they’re not even playing badly. They’ve lost those 4 games by a combined 24 points. And it’s not like they’re almost beating bad teams. They lost to the Bears by 1 on a bullshit rule. They lost to the Eagles by 3. They lost to the Vikings by 14 in a game that should have been a lot closer. They lost by 2 to the Packers this past weekend. If they had had a healthy Matt Stafford, they could be 3-1 right now or something like that. Shaun Hill is a servicable player, but doesn’t have the big play potential Stafford has. They’re losing like always, but they’re not even playing like they always do. This team is now 3-41 in their last 44 games. The football gods hate the Lions.

29. Arizona Cardinals 2-2

The Cardinals are making the switch from Derek Anderson to undrafted rookie Max Hall, 4 games into this season. They’ve played a lot worse than their 2-2 record would suggest as their two wins came by a combined 5 points to the lowly Raiders and the Rams in Sam Bradford’s debut. They needed a missed chip shot field goal by Sebastian Janikowski to beat the Raiders. Their two losses came by a combined 65 points. Their runs scored/runs allowed differential of -60 is 2nd worst in the league to the Bills -64. They may be in first place, but they’re not playing like a first place team, at all.

I actually like the switch to Max Hall. I know what you’re thinking, didn’t I go into detail about how quarterbacks that have a rookie redshirt year do so much better in their careers. That is very true, but that only concerns potential franchise quarterbacks. I saw enough of Max Hall in college to know there’s about a .5% chance he’s a franchise quarterback in the NFL, maybe not even that much of a chance. However, he’s better than what they have in Derek Anderson. Hall is very similar to Bruce Gradkowski and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Give them an amazing supporting cast and they can take you to the playoffs. Hall can win this team the 6 or 7 games (I wish I was kidding) it could take to win this division. 

He’s pretty much the anti-Derek Anderson. Anderson has all the physical tools to win you games, but he’ll lose you a lot more than he’ll win you with poor decision making, accuracy, and intangibles. Hall doesn’t wow you with arm strength at all. He stands at about 6-1 210 with shoes on, but he’s a proven leader, and he’s got great mechanics and accuracy. He may be a rookie, but he’s 24, thanks to a 2 year mormon mission. He also is younger and less proven. You know what you’re getting with Derek Anderson and it ain’t pretty. With Hall, there’s a chance he could become that franchise guy that could lead your team to the Super Bowl. It’s not a good chance, but it’s a better chance than Anderson. And if he doesn’t, well maybe he can lead this team to a 7 win playoff berth this year and they can start fresh with a new signal caller in 2011. Or better yet, draft one in 2011 and sit him behind Hall for a year as a rookie redshirt year. Because after all, the history doesn’t lie. Rookie redshirt years do help.

28. Oakland Raiders 1-3

The Raiders have their biggest game of the year this week. They play the Chargers, the early season Chargers, and have a legitimate chance to knock the Chargers off for the first time in 13 games. This is their Super Bowl, because they’re obviously not going to be playing in any real Super Bowl anytime soon. I expect them to come out playing hard and (NFL Picks spoiler alert), I they’ll pull it off.

27. Carolina Panthers 0-4

Poor Jimmy Clausen. As if having a crappy offensive line, a defense that can’t stop anyone, a Head Coach who forgot his team was a run first team, and receivers for the most part that can’t get seperation, Steve Smith has now gone down with yet another of his patented injuries and could miss up to the month. Now he has no receivers that can get open. His top receivers are two rookies, Brandon LaFell and David Gettis, both of whom were drafted in the 3rd round or later, and Dwayne Jarrett who might as well not even have hands. He can’t catch anything. I don’t know how Clausen almost knocked off the Saints in New Orleans with this supporting cast.

26. San Francisco 49ers 0-4

What’s sad is that this team still has a decent shot of winning the division, despite starting 0-4. Their division is that bad. They have 5 more games remaining with division opponents. If they go 4-1 in those games, and then play decent (3-4) in their other 7 games, they have 7 wins and could win this division. Their still a talented team. In fact, I’d say they’re the most talented team in the division. Two of their losses were for stupid reasons and by a combined 5 points to a good Atlanta and a good New Orleans team. There’s no need to panic in San Fran and change coaches (why would you want to get rid of Singletary) or quarterbacks (argue all you want, Alex Smith is better than David Carr). If they don’t make the playoffs, then they can fire their coach and switch quarterbacks, meaning draft a new one in the first round with what should be a top 10 pick.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-2

The Jaguars just beat the Colts, but this is still a bad team. They beat the Colts because they always play the Colts tough. Some bad teams, in fact most bad teams, particularly ones that have been bad consistently in recent history, all have teams they play their hardest against traditionally. For the Jaguars, that is the Colts. They won that game because they gave it their all, but they don’t do that every week. In fact, they don’t do that most weeks. Also, those two weird turnovers by the Colts and a magical 59 yard field goal to win it also probably helped a lot.

24. Seattle Seahawks 2-2

I don’t love their move for Marshawn Lynch. I think that, first of all, running games are overrated. As long as you have a strong passing game to lift their pressure off the box, most decent running backs can average 4 YPC. Look at what the Patriots have been doing for years. All you need is different types of running backs to mix and match. Second of all, I don’t think the running game was the problem. Justin Forsett and Leon Washington were capable backs. Lynch does give them that extra look, which is good. The positives, of course, are that (as always) the NFC West sucks so adding a player like Lynch could have a tiny difference that pushes them over the top. Also, what they gave up, a 4th and 6th rounder, is not all that much.

23. st. Louis Rams 2-2

The Rams are the favorites in the NFC West? Why not? The Seahawks are having defensive issues and I know how that I trust Matt Hasselbeck as a quarterback. The 49ers and 0-4 desperately need to get their shit together. And the Cardinals just switch quarterbacks to an undrafted rookie. So, I’d say the Rams are the favorites in the NFC West. I’m not sure if you’re sensing a theme, but the NFC West is pretty bad.

What’s so surprising about the Rams is not their offense. Steven Jackson is doing what we expect him too, which is being a badass, doing everything a running back can possibly do, all while playing injured. Sam Bradford, though a lot will be made that he’s having a good year, is really not. He’s completing 58% of his passes for a YPA of 6.0 and 6 picks to 6 touchdowns. Those aren’t bad rookie numbers at all, but they’re not amazing, especially considering he’s faced some pretty run of the mill or worse defenses (Seattle, Washington, Arizona, Oakland). They’re basically what I expected from a rookie quarterback who didn’t have much experience in a pro style offense and hadn’t played in a competitive football game since October of 2009. 

What is surprising about the Rams and what is making them 2-2 is their defense. I guess it shouldn’t be so surprising, considering Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive genius. The Giants can’t create any pressure without Spags as their defensive coordinator (unless of course they’re playing the Bears). But the personnel on this defense were hardly impressive names coming into the season. However, they ranked 16th against the pass in YPA and 7th against the pass in QB rating. They also have an impressive 9 sacks (10th in the league) in 4 games.

This of course could be because of their weak strength of schedule. Other than Donovan McNabb, they aren’t really facing any good quarterbacks. Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, and Shaun Hill are hardly impressive quarterbacks. We’ll have to see what they do once they’re tested. Luckily for them, they won’t really be tested all that much. I think they have the easiest schedule in the league and that could propel them to be an unlikely playoff team (granted with 7 or so wins).

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1

Bye

21. Denver Broncos 2-2

With Kyle Orton playing the way he is, the Broncos are in a great position to challenge for the AFC West if the Chargers don’t improve and the Chiefs 3-0 start is really as much of a fluke as I think it is. Kyle Orton is playing like a legitimate quarterback and stretching the field. Their passing game is dangerous deep down field, something they didn’t have last year. That’s going to open things up for the running game and put points on the board. This is going to force opponents to match and that’s going to allow them to make the most of their strong pass defense. The big thing is though, red zone offense. 1419 passing yards by Orton has led to 6 passing touchdowns and 87 points. If they can capitalize on their strong passing offense, with a odd matched bunch of receviers that work well together (Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Jabar Gaffney), they’re going to be a solid team this year, especially if Knowshon Moreno can run well coming back from his injury, and if their ground defense can play as well as it did last week against Chris Johnson.

20. Philadelphia Eagles 2-2

Michael Vick supporters got more ammunition this week. First of all, they never got to see Michael Vick struggle against a defense that wasn’t the Lions’ or the Jaguars’ because he wasn’t in the game long enough. Before leaving with a rib cage injury, Vick was 5 for 7 for 59 yards and it was tough to call it either a bad performance or a good performance by Vick. Also, Kolb came in and didn’t really play that well and lost the game. Vick supporters can now say that the Eagles are 2-0 in games that Vick starts and finishes and 0-2 in games that he doesn’t. I can’t wait until Vick comes back and has to play a good defense and struggles and shuts up Vick supporters. Vick is not nearly the quarterback he once was and he was never even the quarterback that every thought he was. He’s not a good pocket passer or passer in general.

19. Kansas City Chiefs 3-0

Bye

18. Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Remember all the excitement around Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens that was out there before the season, all the hype. Where’s any of that now? It all disappeared and Owens just caught 10 catches for 222 yards and is not even really that big of news. I guess that’s what happens when you lose, especially to the Browns. I guess that just goes to show, it doesn’t matter how good your receivers are if your quarterback is crap. Palmer has proven this season that he is crap. No more excuses for him. If he can’t even lead this team to the playoffs, not looking likely, we can never possibly say he’s the type of quarterback that can win a Super Bowl. As I’ve mentioned, my rule with quarterbacks, if you don’t think you can win a Super Bowl with a guy, you’ve gotta switch, either to a backup that’s unproven or by drafting a new quarterback. It’ll be interesting to see if they do one of those two this offseason.

17. Tennessee Titans 2-2

I had a feeling that Chris Johnson could struggle this year, after leading the league in carries and touches at his small size last year, but I didn’t imagine anything like what we’ve seen from him at times this year. Johnson is averaging 3.8 YPA and has two performances of 34 yards and 53 yards. 34 against the Steelers is excuable. Michael Turner and Ray Rice couldn’t break 50 against them either. But 53 against the Broncos? This is the same Broncos team that was one of the worst run stopping defenses in the league last year and fixed that by giving enormous amounts of money to former backups on the defensive line. Johnson also has performances of 142 yards and 125 yards, but the low YPA, 3.8 on the year, hasn’t broken 4 in a week since week 1, and those two clunker performances, are very concerning, especially for Titans fans. The less he can run, the more Vince Young has to pass and the more Vince Young has to pass, the more they lose. Young is a great winner and game manager, but he can’t be relied on to win a game where he has to throw 30 times for 250 yards to win.

 

16. Miami Dolphins 2-2

Special teams, and particularly their special team’s coach, the recently canned John Bonamego, are going to be blamed for that loss to the Patriots, a loss in which the Patriots became the first team ever to have a kick return touchdown, a rushing touchdown, a passing touchdown, a blocker kick returned for a touchdown, and a pick six in the same game. However, the special teams shouldn’t take all the blame and what blame the special teams takes should fall on the players, not the coach. There’s only so much a coach can do if his players play like crap, as they did in the Patriots game. Also, even without the 21 points (punt return touchdown, blocked kick return touchdown, blocked punt that set up a short field for a touchdown) that their special teams gave up, they still lose that game 20-14. I feel like special teams could be a scapegoat for their loss. They didn’t just lose because their special teams didn’t play well. As a team, they didn’t play well.

Henne was able to move the ball well on a poor New England defense, but he also through three killer interceptions (one for a pick six) that simply should not have been thrown. I know he’s young, but he’s got to work on his decision making. Now, there are actually talks that Henne could be benched in favor of Chad Pennington (3 comeback players of the year for Pennington?), an interesting move, as they attempt to save their season. I think it would be best to let Henne work through his issues, but if they feel differently, Pennington could be the guy again.

15. Minnesota Vikings 1-2

The Vikings had a bye last week, but made headlines by trading for former face of the franchise Randy Moss. I know it’s not the same regime in town as it was when Moss forced himself out after the 2004 season and began his exile in Oakland, but it’ll still be weird seeing Moss in a Vikings jersey again. I do like the move of the Vikings though. Sidney Rice isn’t playing for at least another 4 weeks and they could be out of it by then. Favre has proven this year that he needs a big athletic target like a Randy Moss or a Sidney Rice. The Vikings figure, Favre’s probably done after the year anyway, meaning it would be back to square one for this franchise, why not go all out this year and try as hard as possible to win it all. I like the courage. I’m not sure it even makes them a playoff team yet. Favre still has to play better and get better protection, but if those things happen, look out, especially once Rice returns. Moss, Rice, Harvin, Peterson, Favre, oh shit. How do you stop that? Moss faces his old nemisis Darrelle Revis this week as the Vikings take on the Jets. I’ll say more about the Moss move in the Patriots section (spoiler alert).

14. Chicago Bears 3-1

Many people can be blamed for what took place on the field last week at Meadowlands, meaning 10 sacks by the Giants on the Bears, two different quarterbacks getting hurt for the Bears, and a total offense of 110 yards. First of all, Mike Martz’ scheme was to blame. It’s pretty easy to stop the Mike Martz scheme, just create pressure on the quarterback. The Martz scheme can be explosive, but it requires a lot of time in the pocket, a lot of 7 step drops to set up deep routes. 2nd, I’m going to blame Jay Cutler himself. He knows the pressure is coming. He’s got to get it out of there to one of the open guys. When the opponent blitzes, someone is open. He knows the blitz is coming. He needs to do what Kurt Warner did in this scheme in St. Louis, read the blitz and get that ball out of there. He looked like a statue out there last week and simply could not read the blitz at all. 3rd, you gotta blame the offensive line. They have to block better than that, plain and simple. I had some concerns about the Martz scheme coming to Chicago this year and those two concerns were the Cutler doesn’t do well under pressure and that the Bears offensive line is pretty porous. Both of those concerns came to life last Sunday night in a 17-3 loss to the Giants. They’ll have to rebound this week against the Panthers, but without Jay Cutler (concussion). Todd Collins will start instead.

13. New York Giants 2-2

Still tough to get a read on this team. They are a talented bunch, but they are just 2-2 and their offense didn’t look that great in a 17-3 win over the Bears. You’d think if how well that defense play, their offense could have easily scored 20-25 if they had been more in sync, but they weren’t. Time will still continue to tell for this team, but I think Tom Coughlin will get fired if they slip up in these next few weeks or if they don’t make the playoffs this season as this team is talented enough to make the playoffs easily.

12. Washington Redskins 2-2

Clinton Portis’ injury, for 4 to 6 weeks with a hammy problem, could be a blessing in disguise for this team. Ryan Torain is younger and is running better right now. He looks like the future at running back for the Redskins. I had a feeling he could have a big role on this team at some point this year. Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Pakrer are all ancient (two have been cut, one is hurt) and Shanahan specifically brought Torain in from Denver, the team with whom Shanahan drafted Torain in the 5th round in 2008.

11. Dallas Cowboys 1-2

Bye

10. Houston Texans 3-1

Gary Kubiak’s decision to bench Foster for a quarter and a half because he was late to one team meeting is a bit head scratching. There could have been prior offenses, but everything I’ve read about him has been positive, regarding his character, so I doubt that. Luckily for Kubiak, Foster still managed 187 total yards and 2 total touchdowns on 19 touches and a 31-24 Texans victory, and I mean luckily in more than one sense. Luckily for his team’s sake. They still won the game 31-24, despite not having Andre Johnson’s services at all. And, Kubiak won’t be killed by an angry mob of fantasy owners for benching their star player without any word prior. Those fantasy owners who were once pissed and ready to form an angry mob to march down to Houston to kill Kubiak (including me) now can’t possibly be pissed because Foster got them 34 fantasy points. 

9. Baltimore Ravens 3-1

Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers with Big Ben: 4-0. Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers without Big Ben: 0-2. Joe Flacco’s late drive to lead his team to victory was impressive, especially considering that was the first time all season the Pittsburgh defense was made look human. However, you still have to wonder what that score looks like if Ben plays. In a few weeks we’ll see as these two, of course, will meet again later in the season, but for now, Flacco’s accomplishment, however impressive, is a bit cheapened by Ben’s suspension.

8. San Diego Chargers 2-2

We still don’t know what type of team this is. They don’t normally start playing good football until late October, early November. They’ve had an extremely easy early season schedule, but thanks to two close and kind of weird losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks on the road, they do sit at 2-2. Their schedule doesn’t get much harder these next two weeks as they face the Raiders and Rams. However, they better bring it weeks 7-9 before the bye as they face New England, Tennessee, and Houston. After the bye, they face division rival Denver and the Colts. If they struggle in those 5 games and go say 2-3, I’d be concerned about their ability to win this division. The Chiefs and Broncos are both better than they were last year.

7. New England Patriots 3-1

The Patriots were really impressive last week, but considering how they won, I don’t think it tells us a ton about this team. This defense looked really bad for most of the time they were on the field, with the exception of their 4 interceptions. This defense might not be able to tackle anyone or cover anyone, but they can take the ball away from you. Their 7 interceptions on the season rank 2nd best in the league, only to Atlanta with 8.

I also want to comment on the Randy Moss move. I live in Boston and the move definitely didn’t go over well with Patriots nation here. I, included, am not a fan of the move. I rather have kept Moss for the season and let him go after then have just gotten a 3rd rounder for him. I’d feel differently if it was the originally rumored 2nd round pick, because in that case, Moss isn;t a huge part of this offense any more, and they probably weren’t going to win the Super Bowl with or without him, and he was going to go for nothing after the season, and it would allow us to build young talent for 2012 or 2013, when Moss would clearly have been out of the picture anyway. But a 3rd rounder is different. It just doesn’t feel like fair value. the only way this move makes sense to me is if there was something internal that we don’t know about that forced him out. It certainly wouldn’t be the first team a team has had to trade Randy Moss for dimes on the dollar for behind the scenes reasons. Unfortunately, since it is the Patriots, we’re never going to know for sure.

6. New York Jets 3-1

In the process of determining if Mark Sanchez has taken the leap in his 2nd year to being a legitimate Super Bowl caliber quarterback, the fact that he just destroyed the Bills means about as little as anything can mean. The fact that a healthy LaDainian Tomlinson is running like he’s 25, however, is huge. The more LT and Shonn Greene (who also rushed for over 100 yards, first time this season, against the Bills) can do, the less Sanchez has to do,a dn the less Sanchez has to do, the better I still say at this point in his career. At the same time, this defense gets Calvin Pace and Darrelle Revis back, and the offense gets Santonio Holmes back from suspension. This team is now 100% and very, very scary.

5. Atlanta Falcons 3-1

I was expecting a letdown after they beat the Saints, essentially their Super Bowl, so I’m not surprised that it took a weird play for them to beat the 49ers by 2. This team is still an elite team in great position to make a deep run this January.

4. New Orleans Saints 3-1

The Saints have won their 3 games by a combined 10 points over three teams that are a combined 1-11. The Super Bowl hangover has hit this team. That’s the bad news. The good news, they’re still 3-1 and you just know that Drew Brees could explode to lead this team to 30+ points on any given week still. You still fear this team and their weapons. I’m not going to pick them to go all the way, especially as their already weak defense will miss Tracy Porter (out indefinitely) and their offense wll miss Reggie Bush, who by even the most optimistic projections, is out until after week 7. Their offense simply isn’t quite the same without him. However, I’m not going to be surprised if they repeated. They’re still a talented bunch sitting at 3-1.

3. Indianapolis Colts 2-2

People in the sports media are panicking and overreacting to the Colts loss to the Jaguars and the fact that they sit at 2-2. The Colts lost to a good Houston team that was playing its heart out and as Jacksonville team that was playing its heart out, because of two weird turnovers and an amazing 59 yard field goal by Jags’ kicker Josh Scobee. There’s a chance they don’t get 12 wins again this year, but they’re still a dangerous team. They still have Peyton Manning and there is no Super Bowl hangover with this team. They’ve been to the Super Bowl before and won it. They won’t be as distracted by losing one, for that reason, than a team that had never been to a Super Bowl together before that.

2. Green Bay Packers 3-1

The fact that the Packers barely beat the Lions by 2 and all the injuries that are adding up (Ryan Grant, Morgan Burnett, Nick Barnett out for the season, Nick Collins out indefinitely) are causes for concern for the Packers. However, they were my Super Bowl pick to start the year and they are still 3-1 with one loss by 3 points, so I’m still ranking them very high. I love the explosiveness of this offense with Aaron Rodgers. I would have loved it more if they had traded for a real running back like Marshawn Lynch, but whatever.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

The Steelers lost, by remain my #1 team for the 2nd week in a row because, look what happened to all the other top 5 teams. Atlanta won by 2, New Orleans won by 2, Green Bay won by 2, and the Colts lost. No elite team did amazing last week and the Steelers were easily playing the toughest opponent of the bunch. If this team can mesh well when Big Ben comes back, they’re going far this year. It’s as simple as that.

 

 

What is this? Well, in addition to our own Power Rankings, we are going to post this top 15 called the Ultimate Football Rankings (UFB Rankings). It’s compiled of a bunch of rankings of a bunch of good sites, including ours (see bottom) and adds a contrast to our regular Power Rankings. More sites will be added as the weeks go on.

(1)  1. Green Bay Packers  (8)  7 – 0   next at San Diego Chargers

Only undefeated team in the NFL is coming off a bye and should be ready for San Diego Chargers this week. Chargers have extra chips on their shoulders after the horrifying loss against the Kansas City Chiefs but Packers might be too much for them. As long as Aaron Rodgers stay upright, this team has chance to go 16-0.

(5)  2. Pittsburgh Steelers  5 – 2   next vs Baltimore Ravens

Steelers starting to look pretty good.  Big win over the Pats, but can they stay on top with all the injuries at LB?  With another big test this week, they have a chance to return the favor to the Ravens and beat them like they got beat in week 1.  Look for the Steelers to show no mercy!

(4)  3. San Francisco 49ers  6 – 1   next at Washington Redskins

What this team has done is nothing short of a miracle. However, we don’t believe they are an elite team. If they can win against the Ravens and Steelers, this team should be a true contender. The stingy defense with adequate offense can carry you only so far in today’s league where no lead is safe. The 49ers should make playoff, might even clinch the playoff spot first this season.

(3)  4. New England Patriots  5 – 2   next vs New York Giants

I don’t know who is next on the schedule for Brady and company but I’m gonna assume they are gonna inherit a really pissed off Tom Brady…Oh wait, its the Giants!  As in rematch of the Super Bowl a few years ago Giants!   Good Luck with that New York…

(2)  New Orleans Saints  5 – 3   next vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How do the Saints go from slaughtering one winless team by 55 to losing to another by 10? Makes no sense.  This team needs home-field in the playoffs. They are a completely different team on the road.  With that said, watch for Brees and Company to step it up!

(7)  6. Detroit Lions  6 – 2   next bye

They absolutely destroyed the Broncos’ last week. we don’t even know how the Broncos managed to score 10 points between Lions’ fierce pass-rush and Tim Tebow’s incompetency. The offense looked great but running game is still a concern as they only managed 4.0 yards per carry against the possibly worst defense in the league. They have a bye week and a big game against Bears in Chicago a week after.

(6)  7. Baltimore Ravens  5 – 2  next at Pittsburgh Steelers

This team is extremely inconsistent, which is hard to understand when you think about the locker room leadership it has. The Ravens better bring their best game or will be trashed at Pittsburgh, where Steelers are looking to return a favor from week 1. With Bengals playing great, the Ravens might become the third best team in AFC North.

 

(13)  8. Buffalo Bills  5 – 2  next vs New York Jets

Wow, another surprise here,  4-0 at home!  Very impressive Buffalo, very impressive. Wanna know something more impressive? Buffalo’s offense has outscored the Patriots offense by 9 points so far this season.  Dominant performance against the Skins last week. Big divisional matchup with the Jets Sunday!!! 

(9)  9. New York Giants  5 – 2   next at New England Patriots

That was quite a scare versus a winless Miami team at home.  Sorry, but the Giants look like the worst 5-2 team we have seen in a while…Lots of problems with the Patriots on the way. 

(10)  10. New York Jets  4 – 3   next at Buffalo Bills

What kind of team will emerge after the bye?  Can the Jets deliver a big blow to the Bills this Sunday?  With the chance to slip into second place and the universe to going back to feeling right, Rex Ryan and the J-E-T-S go into Buffalo to start making a guarantee look more like a reality.

(12)  11. Houston Texans  5 – 3   next vs Cleveland Browns

We really like how poised and resilient they look even after they lost two super stars (Mario Williams and Andre Johnson). They have beaten teams they should beat last two weeks (Titans and Jaguars) and have very manageable schedule for the rest of the season. With AFC South all but stable, Texans should easily win the division.

(NR)  12. Philadelphia Eagles 3 – 4   next vs Chicago Bears ( Monday Night)

Dominated the Cowboys. Starting to look like a Dream Team.  They treated their fans to a jump back into contention.  We have no doubts in saying, this team looks like they still can win the NFC East.  This week against the Bears will give us an idea if they are serious about taking the division or not.

(11)  13. Atlanta Falcons  4 – 3   next at Indianapolis Colts

Yes, this team is back and fresh after a bye, look for a strong surge outta Matty Ice and a heavy dose of Burner Turner as they wanna get a jump on Indy then look forward to the big match up with New Orleans next week.

(15)  14. Cincinnati Bengals  5 – 2   next at Tennessee Titans

This Bengals team is nothing like old teams I have seen for last few years. Everyone is dedicated to the football and there is no diva in that locker room.  Andy Dalton and A.J Green will be the cornerstone this franchise for a long time. They still have to face the Steelers and the Ravens twice but the Bengals have a good chance to make playoff.

(NR)  15. Chicago Bears 4 – 3   next at Philadelphia Eagles

With a chance to pull within one game of Detroit this week, they have a BIG test at Philly on Monday Night.  Matt Forte is having the best year of his career and the production of the offense depends on him.  We wonder if what’s happening with Chris Johnson in Tennessee is what is holding the Bears up from paying big money to Matt Forte?  All we know is, you better pay the man because there are alot of teams that will!!!

( ) left of rankings indicates previous weeks rankings

( ) next to teams indicates first place votes

UFB Power Rankers are:

Frank Hyun of Patriots Review

Ronnie Kohrt of Ronnie K’s Blog

Mr. Kangaroo of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Brandon Clark of Titan Sized

Steven Lourie of Football Fan Spot

Mr. C.J. Sports of CJ Sports NFL Talk

Adam Hughes of Naptown’s Finest

Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football.com

Nolan Vasan of NFL Draft Geek

Ryan Mc Crystal of Draft Ace

Brian Goldsmith of Hair of the Dog Sports Blog

 Clayton Terry of The Fan Experience

David Gallagis of CJ Sports NFL Talk

 

Scott Hardwick is one of the better centers in the league, ranking 12^th by ProFootballFocus. He was worth more to the Chargers than anyone for continuity reasons and with other questions on the offensive line, they needed to lock up their center. Credit them for doing it for a reasonable amount, 13.5 million over 3 years with 6.5 million guaranteed.

Grade: A 

 

By Packrphan

It’s less than two hours to kickoff at a nippy (that’s Wisconsin-ese for cold) Lambeau Field. It’s the first game the Green Bay Packers have played back home since whupping the Cowboys back on Nov. 7. The weather has changed a bit since then. Today the forecast is for temps in the mid-20s and windy. 

December, as we all know — or are at least told — is when the running game is supposed to carry the day in these bad weather games. Now, for folks outside of the Midwest, let’s just say upfront that temperatures in the mid-20s is not exactly bad weather. At least for these parts. But cold and wind can affect the passing game. Given the fact that the weak spot of the Packers’ offense is its running game, or more appropriately, lack thereof, this could be a concern. It shouldn’t be today, however,

The 49ers have a decent run defense. But that’s a bit moot when you’re playing a team like the Packers who don’t count on much from their running game anyway, right? Of course right. So, given that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t seem to be bothered by the cold, expect the Pack to continue to do what they do, which is to spread out the defense and attack through the air. There should be plenty of opportunities to do just that today. Yes, it will be to the Packers’ advantage for the rest of the season if they at least can muster a token rushing attack. But, the Packers are who they are and, perhaps more specifically, head coach Mike McCarthy is who he is, and the Pack’s offense is centered around the passing game. It will either work or not like it is for the rest of the season. You just have to hope, however, they figure out how to rush for a yard or two at the goal line or to convert first downs on 3rd-and-one.

As for the Packers defense, they should have a good day going against the 49ers QB, Troy Smith. He’s led the Niners to three wins in the last four games since replacing Alex Smith. He’s more of a scrambler than a passer, which can cause some problems for a team like the Pack. But he’s no Michael Vick. TE Vernon Davis is the 49ers version of Jermichael Finley. He can cause problems. And it’s possible that LB A. J. Hawk might be matched up on coverage of Davis. Hawk has done a better job in coverage this year than last, but this is one of the times that the absence of Brandon Chillar might be very evident. The Packers should be able to handle the 49ers running game, although last week Brian Westbrook looked like the player of old, replacing Frank Gore and rushing for more than 100 yards. Westbrook always seemed to cause the Pack headaches when he was with Philadelphia. Let’s hope those days are long gone.

There are many other aspects of this game which we could break down, including special teams which is always an adventure with the Packers. We don’t, for example, know how Sam Shields will field kickoffs for the first time in cold weather. Nor do we know how punter Tim Masthay will punt in these conditions. Keep your fingers crossed that special teams do not cost the Packers a win again. Honestly, though, if it comes down to the special teams deciding the outcome of this game in yet another 3-point situation, there were bigger problems in the game than just special teams. That’s not going to happen today.

The Packers are favored by 9-1/2 points. For our part, we’re calling this game Packers 31 – 49ers 17.

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About packrphan

packrphan is the pen name — or perhaps, cyber name to be more precise — of a writer in Wisconsin who created the blog PackerFansUnited.com back in 2005. Many of his posts have been picked up by other fan blogs and news sites including PackerChatters, Yardbarker, Sportspyder and others.

In real life, packrphan is…well…never mind…not that important in the scheme of things. Just know that he’s been a Packers fan since the day he was born, which is getting to be a long time ago now, if truth be told. His formative years were during the Packers’ Glory Years. Not only did he get accustomed to the Packers winning championships seemingly at will in those days, but those were also the times when Packers’ players would travel in the off-season throughout Wisconsin to play basketball games as both public relations and fundraising events for local charities. packrphan had the chance at those games and other occasions over the years to meet such Packer greats as Ray Nitschke, Willie Davis, Fuzzy Thurston, Willie Wood, Ken Bowman, and others. He has prized autographs from Bart Starr and Vince Lombardi, as well as some of the latest players including Aaron Rodgers and A.J Hawk. Oh, and packrphan is also a proud Green Bay Packers shareholder…which entitles him to nothing other than to say that and to attend the annual shareholders’ meeting each summer.

Besides blogging about his favorite team, packrphan’s friends say that he has turned his leisure time into an art form. He spends his time enjoying life, golfing, traveling, listening to music, reading, and watching far too much sports on TV especially during football season. Although if you were to ask him, packrphan would likely say he doesn’t do enough of any of those things.

packrphan says he’s very excited about the 2010 season for the Packers. Many are predicting the Pack to be in the upcoming Super Bowl. He notes that with an offense as explosive as the Packers that’s certainly a possibility. packrphan’s outlook: “Cautiously optimistic.” Or, in Wisconsin-ese: “Ya, hey der…cripes that’d be great, criminy!”

The PackerFansUnited.com blog is the place for scintillating commentary on all things Packers. That commentary is now proudly shared on footballfanspot.com.

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Manning gets 5 years at 18 million per, an amount that equals what Tom Brady got last offseason on a 4 year deal. I don’t see how anyone can have a problem with this. He is one of, if not the best at what he does in the league and deserves to be paid like it. Anyone worried about his age and or neck injury is just nitpicking. Most likely, Manning will play similar to his entire career for the next 5 years and will retire a Colt and make the Hall of Fame 5 years later, holding every major passing record that Brett Favre currently holds.

Interesting side note, Peyton Manning was offered 100 million over 5 years, which would have made him the single highest paid quarterback in the league, but he rejected it, in favor of 90 million over 5, so that the Colts could afford to resign other guys in free agency. You can’t hate this guy. You just can’t.

Grade: A

 

 

QB RB WR TE OT G C NT DT 3-4 DE DE RLB OLB MLB CB S K P

Updated: 4/17/10

Scoring System 

100 Once in a decade prospect 

95-99 Elite talent 

90-95 Solid top 10 pick 

85-90 Solid first round pick 

80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 

75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 

70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 

65-70 3rd-4th round pick 

60-65 4th-5th round pick 

55-60 5th round pick 

50-55 6th round pick 

45-50 7th round pick 

40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 

30-40 Career practice squader 

20-30 No NFL future 

0-20 No football future 

1. Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame) 98

Didn’t step up clutch in close games last year, but still had a hell of a statistical year for a mere junior throwing 28 touchdowns to 4 picks and averaging 8.8 YPA out of a pro style offense. It’s safe to say that while he lost a lot of close games, all 6 of his losses were by a touchdown or less, Notre Dame would have gotten destroyed without him. He played his best in big games and got absolutely no help from his defense. He has experience playing behind a poor offensively line, which he’ll likely have to do in the NFL if he goes top 5 as he’s projected, and he played most of last season through an injured foot, showing his toughness. He’s the top quarterback prospect in this draft class and gets a 98 rating. For the record, Matt Stafford got a 97 last year.

2. Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) 92                          

3/29/10: Bradford looked great in his Pro Day, showing the stronger arm that it was predicted he would have when he showed up 15-20 pounds heavier to The Combine. The Rams have not announced him as the #1 pick, saying they are going to wait until his private workout with them on the 19th, but I would be very surprised if he wasn’t the pick and they didn’t have a contract in place with him before draft day on the 22nd.

2/26/10: It is reported that Bradford’s shoulder examination went excellent. I am also hearing that a dozen or possibly more NFL GMs were asked about Clausen and Bradford and all of them liked Bradford more. I still like Clausen more, but that won’t matter, if the Rams like him more. I haven’t made this decision final, but I think I could have Bradford atop my mock next week. He also bulked up from 218 to 236, a very impressive feat and necessary for someone whose arm strength was a question mark.

Quite the opposite of Clausen, he’s a proven winner with very mature decision making, but he doesn’t have Clausen’s arm or experience in a pro style offense. There’s no denying the season he had in 2008, but the fact that when Bradford got hurt this year, his freshman backup was actually able to put up close to similar numbers may show that Bradford is just a system quarterback. Then of course there’s his injured shoulder which is a red flag. He has a better arm than about 90% of the quarterbacks in this draft class, and his decision making is great, but there are some red flags here.

3. Tim Tebow (Florida) 88

3/18/10: He didn’t look great in terms of throwing delivery at his Pro Day, but he certainly, mechanically looked a ton better than he did in the Senior Bowl and all last season. In fact, the work he has made on his throw is a huge testament to his amazing work ethic and love of the sport. He’s still a project and far from a finished project, but he has good upside and I think he has the work ethic to fulfill it. I don’t see why some places regard him as less than a 2^nd round prospect.

1/30/10: Contrary to what the media is saying, Tebow did not struggle in the Senior Bowl, in fact, his Senior Bowl was painfully neutral. I say painfully because I wanted him to either show me he’s not a true quarterback or that he is, but he did neither. He didn’t make a ton of tough throws, although he threw one impressive curl, and he completed 8 (should have been 9 if it weren’t for an easy drop) out of his 12 throws, but he was operating with Miami’s playbook which is one of the most college esque playbooks in the NFL. Basically, he was playing with the same Florida playbook he was comfortable and we didn’t get to see him be challenged by a pro style offense. So, basically, I learned nothing about Tebow in his Senior Bowl.

Showed in the Sugar Bowl his ability to throw the football and step up in big games by throwing more touchdowns than incompletions, but his mechanics are still poor. However, I don’t believe he has a single mechanical issue that can’t be fixed at the next level and he’s an extremely hard worker. His intangibles are off the chart. Right now the #10 pick is his to lose, based off of the comments Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver made about him earlier this season, so he’ll need to step it up once again in the Senior Bowl.

4. QB Jevan Snead (Mississippi) 74

He had a great sophomore year and followed that up by just throwing the football. He threw 20 picks to 20 touchdowns this year and while he didn’t have a ton of help around him, on the offensive line and in the receiving corps, his decision making is a huge red flag for him. He has all the physical tools and then some, but whether or not he puts them all together at the next level is currently a mystery.

5. QB Tony Pike (Cincinnati) 71             

1/30/10: He showed more of what the coaches were seeing from him in practice, a ball that kind of dies at about 10 yard downfield. He did look more mobile in the pocket than I remember him from last year, but his arm strength was not good and he struggled to make a lot of the throws he’ll have to make in the NFL. He started out 3 of 3, but was 2 of his next 9 to finish 5-12 for 44 yards. He has good decision making and good short accuracy, but I think he’s a 3rd round prospect at best.

1/27/10: Looked like a stick figure at his weigh in and then went out and has easily looked like the worst quarterback at the Senior Bowl this week in practice. He went into the Senior Bowl with the potential to go in the 2^nd round. Now, I think he’s looking at the 3^rd round.

He may just be a system quarterback and he doesn’t have elite arm strength, but his accuracy was excellent last year and he’s a very smart quarterback with good decision making. He’s also very tall and has the frame to bulk up and become a stronger thrower. He threw for 29 touchdowns last year despite missing close to 4 games with an injury, and injury which has clearly passed based off of his late season performances.

6. Colt McCoy (Texas) 69

2/26/10: McCoy measured in at 6-1 at his weigh in. Might as well add that to the list of reasons why he won’t work out in the NFL, no experience in a pro style offense, a weak arm, and now a small frame.

A proven winner with a very weak arm by NFL standards. He’ll fit a spread style offense in the NFL well and to his luck, more and more teams are switching to the spread in the NFL, but he’s still not a good fit for a good majority of the NFL scheme despite his amazing accomplishments in college.

7. Bill Stull (Pittsburgh) 66

He’s a statistical one year wonder, with a 65% completion percentage, a 8.2 YPA, and 21 touchdowns to 8 picks this year, all out of a pro style offense. If he can continue what he showed this year in the pros, and not what he did last year when he struggled badly, he could be a legit NFL signal caller.

 

8. Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State) 64

1/30/10: Though he still may ultimately end up at wide receiver, Robinson showed he can throw by throwing for 175 yards on 12-21, with one touchdown and one pick. He showed a much stronger arm than he did in Oklahoma State’s offense this year, which was centered around the short pass. He really looked like the 3rd round prospect he was last year before going into this season without his top two receivers from 2008 and struggling. He really showed what he can do with a good supporting cast. 

Really struggled this year compared to last year, but that’s understandable as he was without his top two receivers from 2008, Brandon Pettigrew (NFL), and Dez Bryant (suspension). I don’t think he’s a quarterback at the next level, though he may prove me wrong. He’s probably better off as a wildcat or a wide receiver at the next level, a la Josh Cribbs, but he could surprise some people and turn into a decent signal caller as well.

9. John Skelton (Fordham) 63

3/15/10: Having never gotten the chance to see him play at Fordham, getting to watch Skelton throw at his Combine was pretty impressive. I have heard the hype around him, but was conservative in my grading of him, a small school kid, until I actually say what he had. The only thing he appeared to struggle with was deep accuracy, but he has a huge arm and showed nice touch and footwork on his short throws.

Didn’t have a high level of competition at Fordham, but he had good tape, good production, and a cannon for an arm, drawing premature comparisons to Joe Flacco. At 6-6 250, he probably has one of the 3 strongest arms in the draft class, but I am a bit skeptic about his touch and reads. He’s a project with some massive upside.

10. Jarrett Brown (West Virginia) 61           

2/28/10: 40 times don’t matter a ton to quarterbacks, but a 4.54 will get you noticed, especially when you’re someone who may have to play another position at the NFL level. He’s a project, but he has upside at multiple positions including quarterback and running back. 

1/30/10: He didn’t have the best game overall, but he showed a lot of potential and physical tools. He’s an excellent athlete and has a running back’s frame, as shown in his weigh in, but he also showed a very good strong arm in the game. He really struggled with his touch and his footwork is very poor, he missed a wide open guy downfield because his feet weren’t set when he threw it, but overall, I like his upside a lot more now that I did before this week, when I saw him as a wildcat only.

1/26/10: Very athletic frame, measurables suggest a move to running back is possible. That’s good because he wasn’t going to make it as a quarterback in the NFL.

11. Sean Canfield (Oregon State) 61

1/30/10: I was expecting him to show himself as a legitimate quarterback prospect in this game, as he has experience in a pro style offense, and I think he has a stronger arm than most quarterbacks in this game, but he didn’t look great in limited action, throwing an end zone pick to Taylor Mays. He did have one nice 31 yard completion to in state rival Ed Dickson, the Oregon tight end, but overall, he was disappointing and I may be rethinking his late 3rd/early 4th round grade. 

All the physical tools, but none of the production in college for the most part. He had one good year as a starter, this year, but he’s very smart, very accurate, and has the frame to become a strong thrower. He reminds me a lot of Trent Edwards coming out of school, a guy who could be drafted based on upside alone despite the fact that he didn’t have the greatest college career. Canfield could be looking at the 3^rd round range as Edwards was, possibly lower because this draft class is better at quarterback than 2007’s.

12. Max Hall (BYU) 60

Statistically great with 32 touchdowns to 13 picks this year, but at 6-1 200 he lacks NFL size, and I really didn’t see anything resembling an NFL arm when I watched him this year. He’s smart, but the physical tools aren’t quite there. He’ll be a solid backup. 

13. Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) 57

1/30/10: I really didn’t like him going into this game, but he proved to me that his arm is a lot stronger than I lot and a lot more accurate on deep balls than I thought. He had a lot of nice deep throws, which surprised me because he comes from an offense that focuses on short throws. His footwork was still bad and he messed up a few easy throws, but he has some potential in the 4th or 5th round.

I really didn’t like what I saw on tape from LeFevour this season at Central Michigan. I thought he was a late round prospect. I thought he lacked a strong arm and his stats came in a scheme that bloats stats. I thought he couldn’t make reads and looked to run far too often. However, he impressed me a little in the Senior Bowl. He showed a stronger arm than I expected and made a few nice pro style throws, though he was very inconsistent. I’m not in love with him like some places are, but he’s a decent project with upside. He’ll probably be over drafted due to hype and need for the quarterback position.

14. Jonathan Crompton (Tennessee) 54

Crompton is a guy who came to Tennessee with a lot of hype, but never really showed that on the field, except for a little bit this year. He has experience in a pro style offense and all the tools he’ll need, but the tape and the production is very inconsistent.

15. Joe Webb (UAB) 53

1/30/10: I know he’s a former quarterback, but he really didn’t show that he has what it takes to be a wide receiver at the next level, which is what he needed to do because he’s not, I don’t think, an NFL caliber quarterback. On one play when Tim Tebow was in trouble, Webb needed to come back to his quarterback and help him out and he did not. His route running was poor and he also had a fairly easy drop. I think he’ll still get drafted late, but I’m not sure about his upside.

A three year starter at UAB, 2 as a quarterback, one as a receiver. He was actually pretty good as a quarterback this year with a 59.8% completion percentage, a 8.5 YPA, and 8 interceptions to 21 touchdowns and 1427 rushing yards on 227 attempts. However, he played in a shotgun offense and only really had one good year and I don’t think he has an NFL arm. He has NFL athleticism and could play wide receiver as well, but he wasn’t that great as a receiver as a sophomore and he struggled in the Senior Bowl. He’s a project, but he’s also an athlete with upside at multiple positions. 

16. Ryan Perrillioux (Jacksonville State) 52

17. Mike Kafka (Northwestern) 50

18. Tim Hiller (Western Michigan) 49

19. Levi Brown (Troy) 45

20. Darryl Clark (Penn State) 42

21. Matt Nichols (Eastern Washington) 40

 

By Vince Vitale 

43 of 46 fans that voted on my site this week picked the St. Louis Rams. As I stated I was very worried about this game for the Rams. Las Vegas had the Detroit Lions a one point favorite but betting in Vegas pushed it to three. Why was everyone else thinking the Rams would lose. Well it took only six seconds in this game to get more worried. For some reason the Rams started the game with an on-side kick which did not fool the Detroit Lions. David Vobora was injured on the kickoff as well. On the following two plays the Rams were called for offsides and then defensive holding. Nobody could ever imagine that this was just the start of what would be a embarrassing 44 to 6 loss to the Detroit Lions.

The Rams actually seemed to dominate the first quarter with a huge edge in total yards and two trips inside the Lions 10 yard line. On the Rams second drive of the game Sam Bradford hit Danny Amendola with a pass inside the 10 yard line but he fumbled and it was recovered by x-Rams player Jonathan Wade. Still after one quarter of play the game was tied at three.

After the Rams tied the game on the last play of the first quarter Josh Brown kicked off to Stefan Logan. Most players would not return a kick from five yards deep in their end zone but Stefan Logan sure did. Stefan Logan returned the kick 105 yards right through the Rams defense. Only Bradley Fletcher even had a shot at stopping Logan. We did not know it but the game was over at this point. The Lions had only two drives in the second quarter but they made them count. The Lions went 81 yards in 13 plays and 80 yards in 12 plays to take a 24-6 lead into halftime. 

The Rams were unable to do much in the second half and basically just got further embarrassed by the Lions. The Lions went on to a 44-6 victory. To make matters worse in the 4th quarter Ndamukong Suh tipped a Sam Bradford pass up in the air and intercepted it as well. Sam Bradford was 23 of 45 for 215 yards and two interceptions. Steven Jackson again was a warrior competing the entire game and gaining 114 yards on 25 carries. Danny Amendola had twelve receptions for 95 yards after Mark Clayton was hurt early in the game. Worse than the loss to the Lions is the fact that word is Mark Clayton suffered a torn patella tendon and will be lost for the season! The St. Louis Rams have also reported that Guard Jacob Bell and TE Darcy Johnson suffered concussions.

In addition to the terrible 44-6 loss to the Detroit Lions I was almost as mad about the fact that the Rams played Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson until the end of the game. With only eight wins in the last 3+ years the Rams can’t afford to lose their franchise running back or only running back. Steve Spagnuolo may want to compete but there are times you need to be smart. This was a time to get A.J. Feeley some work and to rest Steven Jackson who has yet to be 100% this year. Hopefully the Rams can just throw this film away and start working on their game plan for the San Diego Chargers.

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By Derek Arnold 

Just four days after dispatching of “the other” other quarterback taken in the first two rounds of the 2008 Draft, Chad Henne (to the point that he was benched), Joe Flacco has the chance to take on the guy with which his fortunes will be forever linked and compared, fellow 2008 first round draft pick Matt Ryan.

While Ryan is in no danger of suffering a Henne-like benching no matter how bad the Ravens may (hopefully) make him look Thursday night, it would no doubt mean a lot to Joe to take a 1-0 series lead over the Atlanta franchise savior.

Like Flacco, Ryan has started since day one, making those formerly sad-sack Falcons fans forget all about Mike Vick and his endless string of “Bad Newz.” Those old stories about the Ravens wanting Ryan, and nearly trading up to take him, in the 2008 draft have resurfaced again this week. Regardless of how much truth there is in these “war room legends,” the fact remains that both Baltimore and Atlanta are extremely satisfied with their young signal callers.

The two have nearly identical stats through their first two-plus years in the league…eerily similar, some would say:

Flacco: 8501 yards, 47 TD, 30 INT, 85.8 QB Rating, 26-14 Regular Season, 3-2 Playoffs
Ryan: 8305, 51, 30, 85.7, 26-12, 0-1

Ridiculously similar production, both in stats and in wins. The two also both became the first rookie quarterbacks to start all 16 games for their teams during a season in which they qualified for the post-season.

Enough history, though.

While “Flacco vs. Ryan” is the main event headliner that the NFL is using to drum up interest in this game, I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that the guys who are truly going to decide the outcome of this match up are the guys on the undercard. Namely….

Ray Rice/Willis McGahee vs. Michael Turner/Jason Snelling

While both quarterbacks are taking greater control of their respective offenses here in their third years, the ground games are still the straws that stir the drink in both B’More and Hotlanta.

For the Ravens, Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have combined for 1121 yards from scrimmage (837 rushing, 284 receiving) and seven touchdowns (6 rushing, 1 receiving.) Throw in Le’Ron “Spit Train” McClain and you can tack on another 146 total yards.

For the Falcons, Michael Turner and Jason Snelling have put up 1172 yards from scrimmage (974 rushing, 198 receiving) and eight touchdowns (7 rushing, 1 receiving.)

That’s some impressive productions out of the backfields for both squads.

While the Ravens inched back into the upper half of the NFL in run defense on the heels of holding the Miami Dolphins to just 73 yards, we’re not quite convinced that they’ve gotten things totally straightened out. Perhaps the Dolphins’ opening drive, during which Ronnie Brown completely gashed the Ravens’ defense, was really just a result of them knocking the rust off after the bye week, but there’s no way to really know, since Miami inexplicably had abandoned the running game by the second quarter.

Turner stands 5’10” and weighs in at 244 lbs. Think Peyton Hillis of the Browns…but faster. I’ll wait while you go get a drink…

Back with me? Alright then.

Coming out of the bye, the Ravens paid lip service to the fact that they addressed their run gap coverage and tackling issues during the extra week. Then they came out and were immediately dressed in a clown suit by Ronnie Brown. They’ll have to prove that they really did patch up those gaping holes in the ground game on Thursday, because the Falcons won’t be nearly as quick to stop feeding Turner the rock as Miami was with Brown.

Not that things get any easier once Turner is slowed down. The Falcons have one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Roddy White. Even though he was banged up last week against Tampa and missed practice this week, White is expected to play. White at even 70 or 80% is a formidable challenge for this Ravens secondary. Josh Wilson is expected to start in place of Fabian Washington, who has found his way to the bench in each of the last two games. Wilson played strongly against Buffalo and Miami. Lardarius Webb has been uneven so far in 2010, getting beat for a long pass along the sideline by Brian Hartline last week.

The Falcons also have All-World tight end Tony Gonzalez. Although he’s getting a bit long in the tooth, Gonzalez is still a big part of what the Falcons do offensively, especially if White isn’t playing at full strength. The hope here is that Ryan is unprepared for the master ballhawk that is Ed Reed, and that Reed is able to bait him into a bad throw or two.

Just in case I have to completely spell it out for you after all that – I’m not at all convinced that the Ravens can stifle the Atlanta attack. I think holding them in the lower 20s for the game should be considered a minor victory. Now, whether or not that minor victory can translate into a true victory in the standings will rest on the shoulders of the offense.

We’ve heard since summer that this was supposed to be the year that the Ravens’ offense can step up and bail the defense out. Thursday night in Atlanta should be a prime opportunity for the O to put up or shut up.

The Falcons defense is tough to figure out. They’re small and fast on the defensive line and in the linebacking corps, leading Sun columnist Mike Preston to predict that the Ravens will have no problem pushing them around and controlling the ball, clock, and game. However, as fellow Sun writer Jamison Hensley points out, the Falcons have gone from the 26th ranked defense against the run to the 6th over their past six games. Unlike the Ravens, who so far just SAY they’ve figured out this run defense thing, with the Falcons, the numbers back up that claim.

The secondary is equally schizophrenic. They are ranked 26th, giving up over 250 yards per game. Despite that, they are tied for 3rd in the NFL with 13 interceptions. Flacco hasn’t thrown a pick in 129 passes, the longest streak of his career; however, those who watched the Bills and Dolphins games know that there were certainly a few during those 129 that could have easily been picked off. The Falcons don’t drop interceptions, so Flacco will have to earn it if he wishes that streak to continue.

This was a game that, at the start of the season, many Ravens fans had circled as a loss.  Nothing that either team has done through the first eight games can justifiably alter that prediction.  A short week, going on the road, playing against a fellow Super Bowl hopeful, with a quarterback who is 17-1 all-time in his home stadium, in an environment (dome) where they are historically dismal (2-9 all time).  If the Ravens are to win this game, they’ll have to overcome a lot of things that aren’t working in their favor.

Which will make it all the sweeter when they do.

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