These are extremely preliminary. Once we actually have free agency and trades, i will have more in depth Power Rankings. I don’t necessarily think Atlanta and Houston will meet in the Super Bowl, but I think they could and I wanted to mix things up in these preliminary rankings.

32. Washington Redskins

31. Seattle Seahawks

30. Cincinnati Bengals

29. Carolina Panthers

28. Minnesota Vikings

27. Jacksonville Jaguars

26. Arizona Cardinals

25. Kansas City Chiefs

24. Buffalo Bills

23. Tennessee Titans

22. Oakland Raiders

21. Denver Broncos

20. Cleveland Browns

19. San Francisco 49ers                    

18. Miami Dolphins

17. Detroit Lions

16. Chicago Bears

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

14. New York Jets

13. New York Giants

12. St. Louis Rams

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

10. Philadelphia Eagles

9. San Diego Chargers

8. Dallas Cowboys

7. Baltimore Ravens

6. New Orleans Saints

5. Indianapolis Colts

4. Green Bay Packers

3. New England Patriots

2. Houston Texans

1. Atlanta Falcons

All spreads from Bodog, all money lines from 5dimes

Last week overall: 8-8

Last week ATS: 6-9-1 (-920/-7 units)

Overall picks: 8-8 (.500)

ATS Picks: 6-9-1 (-920/-7 units)

Lock picks: 1-0

Upset picks: 1-3 (-105)

I sucked last week. I’m sorry. Weeks like this happen, especially week 1. I put a lot of work into making sure this week is better. I researched more trends and found a continuous problem I had betting on road favorites, typically not a lucrative situation. I also have a better feel for the teams. So let’s see how this turns out. Remember, if you had listened to me all last year, you would have made an amount of money greater in size to your original bankroll. You do not need an online masters in criminal justice to make your football betting decisions, just a little time and research. There are a lot of people online with advice for this but I know the teams and games and plan to have a great year. Even with a MBA information technology and limitless information on the internet, it all comes down to how much you know about the game. So hang with me. 

New Orleans Saints 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Chicago +7 (-120) 3 units (-360)

This is a matchup of the team that finished 2^nd in the NFC South in 2010 and the team that finished 1^st in the NFC North in 2010. Chicago is coming off a win against the team that finished 1^st in the NFC South in 2010 and New Orleans is coming off a loss to the team that finished 2^nd in the NFC North in 2010. New Orleans doesn’t stand a chance right? Wrong. Though the Saints finished 2^nd in the NFC South last year, they look like the best team in the division right now as Atlanta continued its late season struggles from 2010 in week 1 of this season. Meanwhile, the Bears are the 2^nd best team in the NFC North at best after Green Bay won the Super Bowl last year. The Saints are also at home in this game, where they don’t often lose.

However, I’m not so sure the Saints will cover. The Saints haven’t fared well as 7+ point favorites in the past 2 years. They’re 6-12 ATS in that situation. They’re also coming off an emotional loss to the Packers in the season opener. Since the 2004, when the NFL started having the Super Bowl champion play on the opening Thursday night, teams coming off a week 1 Thursday night loss are a mere 2-5 ATS in the next week. Meanwhile, Chicago looks to have fixed things up in the offseason. Their offensive line isn’t quite as bad and Jay Cutler looks like a completely different quarterback and one I’m no longer terrified to bet on, especially as an underdog. I don’t think they’re 4 points worse than the Saints like this line suggests.

Detroit Lions 27 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Detroit -9 (-105) 1 unit (+100)

The Bills +6 over the Chiefs were my big play week 1, but even I didn’t expect the outcome of that game. The Bills dominated the Chiefs 41-7, meaning in the Chiefs last 3 games that mattered (week 17 last season against Oakland, AFC Wild Card against Baltimore, and the opener this year against Buffalo), they have been outscored by 102-24. I’m actually not happy they lost by that much. They have been exposed as complete frauds after somehow making the playoffs last season. I no longer feel like have some sort of secret. There’s not going to be as much value betting against them going forward this year. In one week, they go from 6 point favorites over a 4 win team from 2010 to 9 point underdogs to a 6 win team from 2010.

Granted, the Lions, that 6 win team, are better than that would suggest. Matt Stafford is back and healthy and they appear to have one of the better passing attacks in the league. They also have a fantastic pass rush. This is the type of game Kansas City does horribly in. The Lions could jump out to an early lead, aiding by the Chiefs missing safety Eric Berry for the season, force the Chiefs to give up on their bread and butter, the run, and allow the Lions’ pass rush to gun for Cassel on every play. Cassel doesn’t do well under pressure and the Chiefs offensive line is ridiculously terrible.

However, I’m a bit nervous about betting the Lions as 9 point favorites. This is a situation they haven’t been in since 2000 (they didn’t cover) and they’ve struggled mightily as a favorite of any kind in recent years (4-7 ATS). However, they’re also much more talented than they’ve been in recent years and the Chiefs flat out suck. They covered on several occasions as favorites last season, including week 17 against the Vikings. In fact, they’ve actually covered in their last 3 instances as favorites. They’re getting better and it shows.

New York Jets 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +9 (-105) 2 units (-210)

The Jets pulled out another close win last week against the Cowboys. I don’t know how they do it. They always seem to pull one out right at the end and I think it’s time we stopped seeing them as just lucky, but rather a team that’s just good at pulling out close wins. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars won this week just 5 days after cutting their starting quarterback. For those of you keeping track, the Jaguars are now 2-0 straight up the week after they cut their starting quarterback in the Jack Del Rio era. What a weird organization!

The Jets may be great at pulling out close wins, but they aren’t small favorites here. They’re favored by 9 points. They won 13 games last season, including the playoffs. 4 of those wins were by more than 9 points (New England week 2 before they got everything together, the then winless Bills week 4, the lowly Bengals week 12 in a game they trailed at half time, and the Bills again week 17 in a weird game where they didn’t even play their starters). Winning big is just not this team’s MO. In the Rex Ryan era, they’re 1-3 ATS as 7+ point favorites. If it wasn’t for the Jaguars poor ATS record out of the division (10-20 ATS since 2008), this would be a bigger play.

Buffalo Bills 27 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3.5 (+100) 4 units (-400)

I’m surprised Buffalo isn’t a bigger favorite here. They’re coming off a 34 point victory over the Chiefs and yet they’re only 3.5 point favorites here at home over a Raider team that had more penalties and penalty yards than completions and passing yards last week (15 penalties for 131 yards, 13 completions for 105 yards). Vegas is obviously not sold on Buffalo yet. I think there’s still value with them.

By all indications, this is a 7 to 9 win team. They’re not terrible anymore. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent quarterback at worst and they have a rebuilt front 7 with Marcell Dareus and the resurrection of Shawne Merriman. They’re not just a half point better than Oakland which is what this line is saying (remember, 3 points are added since the Bills are at home).

On top of all this, the Raiders have a short week after Monday Night Football, and have to play a 1 PM game in the eastern time zone as a west coast team, a situation that isn’t kind to teams, including the Raiders. They’re 1-4 ATS in these situations in the past 2 years. On top of this, they’re coming off a close (3 points or less) road win. Teams in this situation are 23-47 ATS since 2000.

Washington Redskins 31 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against spread: Washington -4.5 (-105) 2 units (-210)

I’ll admit it. I thought Mike Shanahan was losing it when he benched Donovan McNabb, who he had acquired for a 2^nd and a 4^th round pick, for Rex Grossman, a former bust first round pick. Last week, Rex Grossman threw for 305 yards in a win. Donovan McNabb threw for 39 in a loss. Whoops! Anyway, Rex Grossman should have another strong game. The Cardinals gave up 422 passing yards to Cam Newton, a rookie quarterback with 14 college starts on the road in a lockout shortened offseason. They can’t get to the quarterback and they can’t cover anyone.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are playing a 1 PM ET time game on the East Coast as a West Coast team. This is a situation teams are 33-52 ATS in since 2003. The Cardinals are 1-5 in this situation in the past 3 years. Also, I’m not sure this line is right. The Redskins are only 1.5 point better than Arizona? Really. Kevin Kolb is a decent quarterback, but they have no pass defense and a terrible offensive front. This is far from a complete team, while the Redskins looked very good last week. They’re also in their 2^nd straight home game. Teams who start the season with two straight home games are 19-11 ATS since 2000.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Tennessee Titans 9

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6.5 (-105) 1 unit (-105)

I don’t like betting on road favorites, especially road favorites of 3+. That has been one of my mistakes in the past and I’m hoping to clean that up. The reason betting on road favorites is not lucrative is simple. They’re typically trap bets. You see, NY Giants -3 over Washington at Washington and say, wow New York is definitely 3 points better than Washington and bet it. However, you forget to take home field fully into account. That line actually means New York is 6 points better than Washington. Plus, home underdogs tend to play with a chip on their shoulder.

However, but I’m not betting on the Titans. The Titans suck. Matt Hasselbeck didn’t look good in the opener, which makes sense because he’s almost 36 old and learning a completely new offense in 7 weeks after spending most of his career in Seattle. Chris Johnson didn’t look great, partly because they didn’t fix their terrible offensive line in the offseason, and partly because he held out in the offseason and didn’t get to practice with the team. Their defense also didn’t play well. Kenny Britt was seriously the only Titans who had a good week last week.

Meanwhile, Baltimore cemented themselves as one of the elites in the league last week. They won 12 games last year and after blowing out the Steelers by 4 touchdowns last week, they look poised to win that many games again. I’m taking them but only for a unit.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Seattle Seahawks 9 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle +15 (-110) 3 units (-330)

The Steelers lost by 28 points last week and yet they come back this week and are favored by 15 points. I know the Seahawks are bad, but most teams who are double digit underdogs against a team coming off a loss are and those teams are 62-36 ATS since 2002. Besides, it’s not like the Steelers possess an explosive offense or anything. They ranked 12^th in points last year. I don’t like taking teams like this as big favorites. The only reason this isn’t a 4 or 5 unit pick is because it’s the Seahawks. They suck. For this reason, the Steelers are actually my straight up lock pick this week. Tarvaris Jackson vs. the Steelers? Anyone give him any chance to win? I didn’t think so.

Green Bay Packers 31 Carolina Panthers 23

Pick against spread: Carolina +10.5 (-115) 3 units (+300)

The Packers won the Super Bowl last year. They spent the offseason celebrating capped off with a win week 1 at home against the Saints in the first NFL regular season game of the season. This is a pretty familiar story. The last 7 Super Bowl champions have done it. They win the Super Bowl, they celebrate, they win week 1 in front of an emotional home crowd.

Then what? Well, of those 7 Super Bowl champions, only two covered the next week. They get knocked back to reality so to speak. The Packers are riding high right now. It’s safe to say the Packers probably won’t put forth much effort against the lowly Panthers. I also like that this line is so big. Betting on home double digit underdogs, isn’t necessarily a highly lucrative situation, but in certain cases I think it is, and this is one of them.

Their pass defense looks like it could be a legitimate problem this season. Drew Brees threw for 419 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks last week against them. I realize Drew Brees is really good, but there’s still reason to be concerned there. Cam Newton should have a decent game against them after setting the rookie passing yards record on the road last week. That’ll keep this one close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick (+140)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3 (-110) 4 units (+400)

The Buccaneers and the Vikings are equal? Huh? That’s what this line says. The Vikings lost in San Diego in a game where Donovan McNabb threw for 39 yards. 39 yards! If it wasn’t for a Percy Harvin return and a huge game by Adrian Peterson (only 98 yards, but that’s very impressive considering he only got 16 carries and the Vikings were unable to get in a rhythm running the ball trailing for most of the game).

I don’t know if he can count on both of those things this week. Harvin obviously isn’t going to return a touchdown every week. He’s not that good. No one is. Meanwhile, Peterson is really, really good, but with the exception of one 46 yard run, he had 52 yards on 15 carries last week. This isn’t a knock on Peterson’s talent, but Minnesota’s offensive line is horrible. He’s talented enough to break a big one every once in a while, but he’ll struggle on most carries between the tackles because of his blocking. Take away that kick return and that 46 yard Peterson run, which set up a 3 yard McNabb touchdown throw, and the Vikings score 3 points last week.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers almost beat Detroit last week. Detroit is a good team. A lot of people will say, they lost at home, they’re an iffy bet on the road, even against the lowly Vikings. Well, those people would have lost a lot of money on this team last year. The Bucs were a mere 4-4 at home, but somehow went 6-2 on the road. They beat New Orleans in New Orleans and hung within a touchdown of Atlanta and Baltimore on their home fields.

They also only lost once last year to a sub .500 team (Detroit who was in the middle of a 4 game winning streak). Minnesota is almost certainly a sub .500 team. Oh, and they got better in the offseason with key guys coming back from injury and a strong draft. They should have no problem this week.

Cleveland Browns 24 Indianapolis Colts 19

Pick against spread: Cleveland -3 (+110) 1 unit (+100)

Remember when I had the Browns winning 11 games on the strength of a weak schedule and making the playoffs. Good times. They still have an easy schedule, but all of a sudden, the Peyton Manning less Colts, the Dolphins, the Titans, the Raiders, the Seahawks, and the Jaguars don’t seem like such easy games if you can’t beat the Bengals. Colt McCoy had a great preseason, but couldn’t even complete 50% of his passes in the opener (19-40), while the Browns’ weak front 7 made Cedric Benson look like…well not Cedric Benson.

I’m picking the Browns here. I don’t like overreacting to one week and I think the Browns could still have a decent season with how easy their schedule is. The Colts aren’t any good either. Kerry Collins is a traditionally slow starter and probably doesn’t have the playbook completely down yet. They won’t go 0-16 like some are saying. They’ll win some games, but they’ll come later in the season. However, I’m not putting any more than a unit on this. I don’t trust the Browns right now.

Miami Dolphins 23 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Home underdog alert, that would be Miami in this case. However, they lost as a home underdog last week, so they’ll lose this week too right? Not so fast. Not only are teams who open the season with two straight home games 19-11 ATS week 2 since 2000, the Dolphins are home underdogs in back-to-back weeks. They haven’t had to leave home yet and they’re angry and motivated by being underdogs at home in back to back weeks.

Meanwhile, the Texans are coming off an emotional blowout victory over the Indianapolis Colts. I know Peyton Manning didn’t play, but that didn’t matter. They ran the score up in that game. They wanted that win so badly. Now they have a relatively easy test against Miami before playing the Saints and the Steelers. They won’t be 100%.

Also, there’s a chance Arian Foster won’t play this week either. They didn’t need him last week, anyone can run on the Colts, but the Dolphins had one of the best run defenses in the league last year. The Texans will need Foster back if they have any chance of running on Miami. Besides, if there’s two things the Texans haven’t done well in their franchise history it’s cover as road favorites (2-5 ATS), and cover after a win (16-29 ATS).

There are 3 reasons this isn’t a 5 unit selection. 1, Miami was 1-7 last year at home. That has to mean something right? 2, they’re coming off of 14 point loss on MNF. Teams coming off a 17+ point loss on MNF are 17-35 ATS the following week. 14 isn’t 17, but it’s close enough to be concerned. 3, Chad Henne is one of the most inconsistent players on the planet. He was good last week, so logic says he’ll struggle this week.

Dallas Cowboys 31 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Dallas -3 (-135) 2 units (+0)

Huh? The Cowboys are only 6 points better than the 49ers? That’s what this line says. I know the Cowboys lost last week and the 49ers won, but the Cowboys outplayed an above average team in the Jets in New York for 50 minutes before spontaneously combusting, while the 49ers led by a mere 2 points at home over quite possibly the worst team in the league in Seattle before Ted Ginn Jr. improbably scored twice on special teams in just over a minute.

So why am I not all over the Cowboys? Well, for one thing, I’m going to stay away from road favorites from now on, at least betting heavily on them. Also, this feels like a trap line. San Francisco is a good home team (at least in comparison to how they are on the road), while the Cowboys are coming off a crushing opening game loss and might not be trustworthy going forward after how they imploded. However, I’m certainly not going to bet on the 49ers to win and this line is small enough (3) that I have to at least think the 49ers have a good chance at winning to bet on them.

I’m taking Dallas. The only reason this isn’t a mere 1 unit bet is that the Cowboys are in their 2^nd straight road game, normally a fairly lucrative betting situation, especially coming off of a loss. Teams tend to be undervalued by Vegas in that situation and cover at a decent 60% clip since 1996, a fairly long time. The Cowboys won in this situation last season under Jason Garrett so that also helps me make this a 2 unit bet.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Denver Broncos 13 Upset Pick (+185)

Pick against spread: Cincinnati +4.5 (-110) 3 units (+300)

As pathetic as the Raiders were week 1, with more penalty yards than passing yards, the Broncos were even more pathetic, mostly because they lost to the Raiders. They couldn’t stop the run (33 carries for 188 yards by Raider running backs), they couldn’t run (12 carries for 25 yards by Bronco running backs), they fumbled 4 times, losing 2 and committing 3 turnovers, along with 10 penalties of their own. Kyle Orton barely completed 50% of his passes (24 for 46) and the crowd predictably soured on him with chants of “TEBOW TEBOW.”

After all that, they’re favorites. Huh? The Bengals aren’t great, but they did win last week and they’re better than 1.5 points worse than Denver. The Broncos can’t run or stop the run. This is bad for this matchup. Andy Dalton isn’t a very good quarterback, but the Bengals won week 1 because Cedric Benson, freshly released from prison, ran for 121 yards and a score on 25 carries. That took the pressure off of Dalton. That should happen again this week. Meanwhile, Kyle Orton isn’t a very good quarterback either. If the Broncos can’t run, he doesn’t play well. The Broncos couldn’t run last week and I don’t see that being any different this week.

On top of that, two trends go in favor of Cincinnati big time. One, Denver is 2-14 ATS as favorites of 3.5+ since 2008. This is hilarious, but also pathetic. Two, Marvin Lewis is 9-4 ATS in the 2^nd of back to back road games. This spread might have been 6 points had Champ Bailey’s status not been in doubt for this game and I would have made this a 4 or 5 unit pick at least in that case because teams that finish with 6 wins or fewer are terrible as 6+ point favorites.

However, Bailey’s likely absence still definitely hurts the Broncos. He’s their only good defensive back. Without him, they can’t stop the run or the pass and as the great John Madden would say, if you can’t stop the run or the pass, you probably can’t stop the other team’s offense. I’m still taking Cincinnati for 3. The Broncos suck as 3.5+ point favorites, the Bengals are good in the 2^nd of two road games, the Broncos don’t match up well with the Bengals, the Broncos don’t deserve to be more than a field goal favorite over anyone right now, and the Broncos are coming off a deflating week 1 loss to an archrival.

The Broncos are at home in the 2^nd of two home games to start the season and a good home team, but I think Kyle Orton would probably rather be on the road than at home right now to be honest. No one’s chant his backup’s name on the road. I’m taking the Bengals for 3.

New England Patriots 31 San Diego Chargers 28

Pick against spread: San Diego +7 (-105) 1 unit (-105)

At first glance, San Diego looks like a smart pick here. Philip Rivers is 12-4 ATS as an underdog and the Patriots just gave up over 400 yards to Chad Henne. However, Philip Rivers is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS against Tom Brady including the playoffs in his career. That one ATS win by the way came as a 14 point underdog in the playoffs. I’m still going with Philip Rivers. 7 points is a lot and I’m not sold on New England’s defense this year, but I’m not making this a big play.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Philadelphia Eagles 26 Upset Pick (+135)

Pick against spread: Atlanta +3 (-125) 4 units

The Falcons lost last week, unfortunate for me since I picked them. However, that was kind of predictable. The Falcons struggle on the road, outside, against quality opponents. Two of their 3 losses in 2010 were outside in Pittsburgh and in Philadelphia. They also lost to New England in New England, the Giants in New York, and Carolina in Carolina in 2009, so this is nothing new. 5 of Matt Ryan’s last 8 regular season losses have been on the road outside and aside from Carolina, all of those have been quality opponents.

That was my mistake. I underestimated the Bears and didn’t think they were a quality opponent. I also made the mistake of betting on a road favorite, something I’m aware of this week. Oh well, live and learn. One positive did come from the Falcons loss to the Bears. Vegas is now really underrating them so much so that they’re home underdogs now. Matt Ryan has lost at home 3 times in 3 years, including the playoffs.

Remember when I said I’d stay away from road favorites? Well, the Eagles are road favorites and not just road favorites, but road favorites in a tough place to play. Besides, I’m not so sure the Dream Team should be sitting pretty right now. They struggled in the preseason. Jeremy Maclin is still not 100%. Their offensive line is terrible once again and teams seem to have figured out Michael Vick. Vick was 14 of 32 against St. Louis’ banged up secondary last week. The only reason they won was because St. Louis suffered a ton of injuries and shot themselves in the foot countless times. I don’t believe in this team’s ability to win in Atlanta as favorites. I say both of these teams will be 1-1 at the end of this.

St. Louis Rams 24 New York Giants 21 Upset Pick (+180)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +4.5 (-110) 2 units

Rams. Giants. The injury bowl on Monday Night Football. Let’s look at the injury reports. Osi Umenyiora for the Giants, out. Prince Amukamara for the Giants, out. Terrell Thomas for the Giants, out for the season. Jonathan Goff for the Giants, out for the season. Marvin Austin for the Giants, out for the season. Hakeem Nicks for the Giants, probably out. Steven Jackson for the Rams, out. Danny Amendola for the Rams, out. Bradley Fletcher for the Rams, probably out. Ron Bartell for the Rams, out for the season. Jason Smith for the Rams, possibly out. Sam Bradford for the Rams…he’ll play, so it could be worse, but not much.

I was hoping this line would be somewhere over 6. I think the Giants have a really good chance to finish 6-10 with early injuries and a brutal 2^nd half schedule and teams that finish 6-10 are terrible at covering as 6+ point favorites. Unfortunately, this line is 4.5 so it’s not close enough for me to use that.

However, I still feel like this line is too high. The Rams were one of the best ATS teams last year and I think they’re still being underrated this season. Meanwhile, Vegas doesn’t seem to realize how badly the Giants are hurting. They aren’t just missing those guys with injuries, they lost 2 starting offensive lineman, their starting tight end, their slot receiver, and a starting defensive tackle in the offseason. They looked horrible last week.

Also, don’t discount Steve Spagnuolo’s impact as St. Louis’ head coach. He used to be a New York coordinator so that gives them an advantage. Teams employing a former assistant of their opponent (provided the opponent has not since changed regimes), were 7-3 ATS last season.

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing: Tampa Bay +3, Buffalo -3, Chicago +6.5, Atlanta +2.5, St. Louis +5.5 (2-3 on the season) 

Average total drafted in last 5 years: 12.2

1. Andrew Luck (Stanford) 1^st pick

2. Robert Griffin (Baylor) 2^nd pick

3. Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) Top 10 pick

4. Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) 1-2

5. Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) 2-3

6. Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) 2-3

7. Ryan Lindley (San Diego State) 4-5

8. Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) 4-5

9. BJ Coleman (UT-Chattanooga) 5-6

10. Nick Foles (Arizona) 5-6

11. Kellen Moore (Boise State) 6-7

12. Austin Davis (Southern Mississippi) 6-7

13. Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois) 7-U

14. Case Keenum (Houston) 7-U

Ross has never lived up to his billing as a former first round pick and he’s had injury problems in the past. The Giants have an excess of cornerbacks with Corey Webster, Terrell Thomas, and Prince Amukamara all under contract for next season so they should be fine at the position provided they don’t suffer major injuries (injuries to Thomas and Amukamara forced Ross to play more than he was originally supposed to in 2011).

The Giants won the Super Bowl in spite of Ross, who allowed 67.9% completion, 9.7 YPA, and 6 touchdowns, though he picked off 4 passes. He was above average against the run, but one of the worst cornerbacks in coverage. His 102.8 QB rating allowed was 5^th worst among cornerbacks who played at least 75% of their team snaps.

 He probably shouldn’t be starting any more. The Jaguars had a need for a cornerback with Derek Cox, William Middleton, and Rashean Mathis all coming off major injury, but the fact remains that the Jaguars paid starter caliber money to someone who has struggled time and time again as a starter. Ross will be paid 15.3 million over 3 years.

Grade: C

1. St. Louis Rams 1-15

Pick (will): QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

The Rams cannot take Suh here. Albert Haynesworth and Richard Seymour last season were two of the top defensive tackles (though Seymour, at the time was playing 3-4 end in New England, which is essentially the same thing). Haynesworth went to Washington. Seymour went to Oakland. Neither team got better, in fact the Redskins got worse. Big dominant defensive tackles, which I believe Ndamukong Suh can be, don’t win this is league. They help, but they don’t win. Cortez Kennedy was one of the best defensive tackles of the 90’s, but never won a ring because the Seahawks never quite got their quarterback situation straightened out. If the Rams take Suh this year, there’s a good chance they win 6 games next year and get the 9^th-12^th pick, making it impossible to get a franchise quarterback. 19 of the last 20 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks had made a Pro Bowl before winning a ring and the only one who hadn’t, Eli Manning, made it the very next year. You simply can’t win in this league without a good franchise quarterback, They have a chance here to take one so they should jump at the chance. Clausen, contrary to Todd McShay’s belief, is actually a really good quarterback. For more on Clausen vs. Bradford, click here.

For more on why the Rams MUST draft quarterback, click here

2. Detroit Lions 2-14

Pick (will): OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

Pick (should): OT Russell Okung (Oklahoma State)

The Lions have their franchise quarterback, but they need to protect him, otherwise his development could be stunted. Suh, or McCoy if they go that direction, is a dominant defensive player, but if the Lions’ franchise quarterback is lying on the ground and/or out with injuries, there isn’t much McCoy or Suh will be able to do to help this team win. Jeff Backus is not the guy you want protecting Stafford’s blindside while he’s developing. Russell Okung is. The Lions don’t want to risk passing on him and getting stuck with Roger Saffold and Jason Fox in the 2^nd.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13

Pick (will): DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

Pick (should): DT Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)

I am not going to mock trades in the should mock because I was have to negotiate with myself to get the deals done and I don’t want to develop a split personality. The Bucs have their quarterback and their left tackle so they can feel free to jump all over Suh, especially since defensive tackle is their biggest need after they were dead last in the league against the run last year. McCoy is a more natural fit for their defensive scheme, but Suh is a beast that simply can’t be passed on here. Contrary to Todd McShay’s belief, Suh is better than McCoy. That’s why he set the record for most Heisman votes as a defensive lineman.

For more on Todd McShay being an idiot, click here

4. Washington Redskins 4-12

Pick (will): OT Bryan Bulaga (Iowa)

Pick (should): OT Charles Brown (USC)

Normally, I wouldn’t take the 10^th player on my board over the 4^th players on my board just because the former had a much higher positional value. However, the Redskins need a left tackle here badly. The offensive line that Donovan McNabb will be playing behind this season gave up 43 sacks last year. Donovan McNabb isn’t magic. He won’t be able to have a good year behind that line and, given his history, he’ll probably get hurt. If the Redskins pass on a left tackle like Brown here for Berry, they won’t be able to take a left tackle until the 4^th round, when they pick next. Assuming they want to win know, Brown would be the best choice as he is the best available left tackle on my board.

5. Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

Pick (will): Trade with Buffalo- QB Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)

Pick (should): S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

The Chiefs need to protect Matt Cassel’s blindside, but all left tackles remaining would be reaches. I have Bruce Campbell ranked at 17, but even with the need at left tackle it would be very hard for the Chiefs to justify passing on Berry, my 4^th ranked prospect, here, especially when they’ve been so bad on defense. Positional value is a good motto to go by up to a point and passing on an elite prospect like Berry for a 2^nd tier left tackle is where I draw that line, unless of course I needed pass protectors as badly as the Redskins do, which the Chiefs do not. Brandan Albert is a serviceable starter at left tackle for now.

6. Seattle Seahawks 5-11

Pick (will): DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma)

Call me crazy, but I think, just because you pay him 10 million dollars and give up the equivalent of 2 3^rd rounders for him, doesn’t mean a 28 year old former 3^rdrounder who has never thrown a pass in the NFL is your quarterback of the future and solves your quarterback issue completely. If given the chance in real life, the Seahawks should take either Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford, and in this mock, Bradford, my 6^th rated prospect, is available.

7. Cleveland Browns 5-11

Pick (will): S Eric Berry (Tennessee)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)

Thanks to teams going with positional value and need over best available, and rightly so, the Browns have the ability to grab my 5^th rated prospect, McCoy, here at 7. McCoy doesn’t fill an obvious need, but he’ll find a way on the field. He’s the most talented defensive lineman they have on their roster and can be an instant starter at 3-4 defensive end, even though that’s not his natural position.

8. Oakland Raiders 5-11

Pick (will): OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

Pick (should): DE Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech)

This has to be the most poorly drafted team in the NFL. They have so many needs that I just want to fix that I just don’t know where to start. Hard to correct 10 years of bad drafting by a senile old man who spends 364 days a year dead and only drafts based on size/speed combinations. Quarterback and left tackle would be the obvious place to start, but I don’t want to reach for one, so I’ll go to the 3^rd thing on my Positional Value Chart and take Derrick Morgan, a future elite pass rushing defensive end who is also strong against the run.

9. Buffalo Bills 6-10

Pick (will): Trade with Chiefs- OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): QB Tim Tebow (Florida)

I know what you’re thinking. Tim Tebow sucks. He’ll never be a good NFL quarterback. The Bills would be ridiculous to use their 1^st rounder on him. I will agree with that 3^rd statement. The Bills would be ridiculous to use their 1^strounder on him because no other teams really have him on their 1^st round radar and he’ll still be there for the Bills in the 2^nd. However, in this mock, he’s my 12^thrated player and won’t be available in the 2^nd for the Bills. I could explain in large detail why I think Tebow will work at the next level, but, in summary, it’s basically this. His two issues are his delivery and his lack of experience under center. He made huge strides on his delivery for his Pro Day at Florida. That was in the 2 months between then and The Senior Bowl. Imagine if he has a year sitting on the bench to work things out. We’ve seen guys with weird deliveries get better before (Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Steve Young) and it helps Tebow that he is working with Romo’s former instructor. As for the lack of experience under center, the NFL is progressively growing into more and more of a shotgun style league. Not as much as college, but if you look at the numbers, the amount of snaps taken from shotgun are increasingly steadily every year. The Bills are considering going to a pure shotgun offense next year (making them one of 6 teams in the NFL to use a pure shotgun or a variation of the pure shotgun, New England, San Francisco, Denver, Miami, and Kansas City are the other 5). That would be a perfect fit for Tebow. Also, they do have Trent Edwards, who is not a franchise quarterback, but can be a decent one year stopgap before Tebow takes over in 2011.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9

Pick (will): CB Joe Haden (Florida)

Pick (should): CB Joe Haden (Florida)

Tebow would have fit here as well, but for all the wrong reasons. His celebrity would help them sell tickets, but he would be counted on to start right away (bad) and the scheme doesn’t fit him at all. Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver wants Tebow and, if he’s lucky, he’ll get his way (probably in the 2^nd round though, not the 1^st), but in this mock he does not get to take Tebow, but instead takes his former teammate Joe Haden. Haden is not nearly as big of a celebrity in Jacksonville as Tebow, but Gainesville is only 75 miles away so bringing in a Gator to patch up one of the worst pass defenses in the league last year is not a bad idea. Haden also happens to be one of the best players available on my board.

11. Denver Broncos 8-8 (via CHI)

Pick (will): MLB Rolando McClain (Alabama)

Pick (should): MLB Rolando McClain (Alabama)

If Brandon Marshall leaves town, this pick becomes Dez Bryant, but since I am putting myself in Josh McDaniels shoes, I would go and sign Marshall to a big longterm deal before McDaniels realizes I stole his shoes. If Marshall stays, this pick has to be defense. Their defense, especially against the run, was good for the first 6 weeks of the season, but sucked the rest of the season and could get worse now that Mike Nolan has gone to Miami. And its no coincidence that the Broncos were 6-0 for the first 6 weeks of the season and 2-8 once their run defense started sucking. The way the Broncos are designed offensively, as a short throw, game manage, grind it out offense, they need to be able to stop the other team and win the field position battle. I would just take the best available 3-4 front 7 player. That is McClain who fills the void at middle linebacker left when they cut Andra Davis.

12. Miami Dolphins 7-9

Pick (will): RLB Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech)

Pick (should): RLB Brandon Graham (Michigan)

This pick and the situation of the Miami puts two of my strong drafting beliefs in contrast to one another. I believe that by far, quarterback, left tackle, and defense end/rush linebacker are the three most important positions, but I also believe that rush linebackers are incredibly risky to take in the first round. For more information on that click here. That being said, I do have some confidence in Graham because, though he has never played rush linebacker, he has played linebacker before he was converted to an end, and I also love his motor and work ethic and, as far as I’m concerned, that has value anywhere on the field.

13. San Francisco 49ers 8-8

Pick (will): S Taylor Mays (USC)

Pick (should): OT Bruce Campbell (Maryland)

I don’t love Campbell as a prospect. Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued him in the past, but at his best, he is one of the best left tackles in this draft class. His upside is enormous if he can achieve it. He would allow the Niners to move Joe Staley to his natural position at right tackle and give the Niners two upgrades in one.

14. Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (via DEN)

Pick (will): OT Charles Brown (USC)

Pick (should): OT Bryan Bulaga (Iowa)

The Seahawks make a reach here for a left tackle, but I think it’s a necessary reach. Behind a good offensive line, Matt Hasselbeck can actually make this team competitive in the sure to be weak NFC West in 2010. Plus, Bulaga would be able to be their blindside protector for the next 8-10 years or so which is great for young Sam Bradford when he steps in at the beginning of the 2011 season.

15. New York Giants 8-8

Pick (will): MLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

Pick (should): MLB Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri)

A great pick in both mocks. Weatherspoon can play middle in a 4-3 as well as 4-3 outside linebacker and 3-4 middle linebacker. He’s the best available prospect at this juncture and fills a need for the Giants after they released Antonio Pierce.

16. Tennessee Titans 8-8

Pick (will): DT Dan Williams (Tennessee)

Pick (should): DT Dan Williams (Tennessee)

Dan Williams is a perfect fit here and likely would go here in reality if he is available. As weird as it may seem, he’s a do everything nose tackle. He’s 325 pounds, but has experience playing in a system similar to the one the Titans run now and he’s also an in-state college kid. He is mobile enough to play in Tennessee’s system and, though he’s not the pass rusher Haynesworth was, he can be the big mobile body that Haynesworth was in the middle of their defense a couple of years ago and free things up for the guys on the outside. He’d be a great compliment to their roster full of sub 300 pound defensive tackles.

 17. San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (via CAR)

Pick (will): OT Anthony Davis (Rutgers)

Pick (should): S Earl Thomas (Texas)

The Niners would like to address the cornerback position, their biggest need, in the first, but they shouldn’t reach for a corner like Kyle Wilson as long as they have other needs to address, especially when you consider the strength of this cornerback class in the 2^nd and 3^rd round range. Earl Thomas allows Dashon Goldston to move to strong safety when he would be a better fit and gives them two upgrades in one.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

Pick (will):  S Earl Thomas (Texas)

Pick (should): NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Nose tackle isn’t their biggest need with Casey Hampton under contract for 3 more years, but Hampton is getting old and that contract pays him 21 million dollars over 3 years so I’m guessing they would love to be able to cut him midway and safe money. Cody allows them to do that by giving them a nose tackle, something that is extremely rare.

19. Pick (will): DE Brandon Graham (Michigan)

Pick (should): WR Damian Williams (USC)

Williams is my 9^th rated player, but falls out of lack of need for wide receivers. Wideout is not a huge need for the Falcons, but Michael Jenkins could be upgraded. Matt Ryan, throwing to Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, and Williams, who I compare to Greg Jennings, is pretty good.

20. Houston Texans 9-7

Pick (will): RB CJ Spiller (Clemson)

Pick (will): RB Jahvid Best (California)

Given how bad the Texans were running the ball last year, taking a talented running back like Best who fits their scheme is a smart idea. Best might not be an every down back, but they have plenty of other running backs to spell him in the backfield, just no true #1 running backs unless Steve Slaton can bounce back.

21. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6

Pick (will): DE Carlos Dunlap (Florida)

Pick (should): TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)

I wouldn’t give up on Chase Coffman, a 2009 3^rd round pick who didn’t play a snap last year because of injuries, just yet. Unless of course Jermaine Gresham, my top tight end, fell to me at 21. Gresham had an injury problem last year, but he appears to have put it behind him. He’s one of the best pure pass catching tight end prospects since Kellen Winslow and he’d finally give the Bengals that over the middle target they are lacking.

22. New England Patriots 10-6

Pick (will): WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)

Pick (should): WR Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State) 

Randy Moss is getting up there in years and only has one year left on his deal. He didn’t give a lot of effort last year either and the Pats have won without him. I don’t think he’ll be in town for anymore than a year so they’ll want to look for a future replacement. Bryant would fit the Patriots offensive scheme well because he played in one just like it in college. I think if Bryant falls to the Pats in real life, they’ll also pull the trigger.

23. Green Bay Packers 11-5

Pick (will): RLB Jason Pierre Paul (South Florida)

Pick (should): RB CJ Spiller (Clemson)

A left tackle is majorly needed, but I wouldn’t reach for a guy like Jason Fox or Trent Williams here. They can just go with best available which they probably will do in real life anyway because of how much they like going with best available. Spiller can help this team in the return game, which they struggle in, and give them a 3^rd round down back, and a homerun hitter out of the backfield, all of which are things they do not have at the moment. He’s the best available player who they could use.

24. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5

Pick (will): CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

Pick (should): CB Kyle Wilson (Boise State)

This is a great pick is both reality and in my own little world. Wilson would fill the need left by Sheldon Brown, who was traded to the Browns, and he can move over to the #1 cornerback spot when they decide Asante Samuel is too old and costs too much, which will probably be next season.

25. Baltimore Ravens 11-5

Pick (will): TE Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (Penn State)

The Ravens have very few needs after all of their upgrades at receiver, including their trade for Anquan Boldin and resigning Derrick Mason. They will probably just look past available and Odrick certainly is that. Trevor Pryce turns 35 soon and the Ravens would be wise to take this opportunity to do what the Steelers did last year and had some youth to their again defensive line.

26. Arizona Cardinals 11-5

Pick (will): RLB Jerry Hughes (TCU)

Pick (should): RLB Jerry Hughes (TCU)

The Cardinals have the personnel to switch to a 3-4 full time next season, but if they do, they’ll need to get more pressure from their rush linebackers. They added Joey Porter, but I don’t see how much the 33 year old Porter helps their group of old rush linebackers for the future. Hughes can be the #1 rush linebacker of the future opposite Cody Brown, a 2009 2^nd round pick, assuming he pans out.

27. Dallas Cowboys 11-5

Pick (will): G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

Pick (should): G Mike Iupati (Idaho)

Youth and depth for the offensive line, that is the Cowboys’ biggest need this offseason. They were destroyed in their playoff loss to the Vikings up front because their old line had worn down and injuries struck and their backups, who aren’t very good, had to step in. Iupati is very raw, but has huge upside. He won’t be a week one starter, but could step in and be an upgrade for Kyle Kosier sometime next year.

28. San Diego Chargers 13-3

Pick (will): NT Terrence Cody (Alabama)

Pick (should): 3-4 DE Brian Price (UCLA)

They never replaced Igor Olshansky after he left as a free agent last year. I have some qualms about Price’s ability to play 3-4 defensive end, but the switch from 4-3 under tackle to 3-4 defensive end is nowhere near as big as the switch from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 rush linebacker. I also have no qualms about Price’s talent and, though I would have rather than Odrick, I am happy with Price.

29. New York Jets 9-7

Pick (will): 3-4 DE Jared Odrick (Penn State)

Pick (should): RLB Everson Griffen (USC)

Vernon Gholston is on a short leash and the only reason he is still on the team is because the Jets would look really stupid to have to release the #6 overall pick 2 years after drafting him. Gholston could bounce back, but he has 0 sacks in 2 years, so I’m not counting on it. Just in case he doesn’t, they should add Griffen, a more natural fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker than Gholston was and the best player available. The Jets aren’t going to be an elite team unless they can create more pressure on the quarterback.

30. Minnesota Vikings 12-4

Pick (will): DT Brian Price (UCLA)

Pick (should): CB Brandon Ghee (Wake Forest)

Antoine Winfield is getting up there in age and has had recent injury issues, Cedric Griffen is average at best and recently tore his ACL, and Asher Allen is a nickel at best and a kick returner. The Vikings, given the NFL is becoming more and more a pass first league every year, should add one more starting caliber corner to the mix. Ghee is that.

31. Indianapolis Colts 14-2

Pick (will): G Maurkice Pouncey (Florida)

Pick (should): OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma)

Charlie Johnson did a decent job this year at left tackle, but I think even I could do a decent job at left tackle for the Colts because Peyton Manning gets rid of the ball so quickly, like clockwork, that it’s almost impossible to sack him. The Colts need to bring in an upgrade at left tackle and Williams has the upside to be amazing in Indianapolis with Manning making him look a little better than he is. Johnson is also a free agent in 2011.

32. New Orleans Saints 13-3

Pick (will): DE Everson Griffen (USC)

Pick (should): OLB Eric Norwood (South Carolina)

The Saints can use Norwood in the way the Redskins used Brian Orakpo, a strong side linebacker on running downs, because he’s too small to play the trenches on running downs, and a defensive end on passing downs, because he’s not good enough in coverage. This way, they could make the most out of his size (he’s big for a linebacker, but small for an end) and his pass rushing ability, without having to use him in places where he does not fit. 

Poor Aubrayo Franklin, he’ll have to try hard for a 3^rd straight season if he wants big money. Franklin was a contract year wonder in 2009, but got franchised by the 49ers for the 2010 season. He once again had a huge year, showing himself to be one of the best run stuffers in the league. However, this is a weird market so he only gets 4 million over 1 year here, an absolute steal for the Saints given their need at defensive tackle. He’s the perfect complement to Sedrick Ellis and once again should have a huge year in his 3^rd straight contract year.

Grade: A

By Ryan Glab

A look at four keys for the Bears to beat this week’s opponent.

1. Get rid of the ball quickly

The Jets have one of the most innovative defenses today that has served them well. Despite an awful quarterback, they are winning games with the No. 5 defense and No. 6 run game. They run a version of the “amoeba” defense, which is when no defender — or less than the normal three or four — puts his hand on the ground before the snap. The idea behind the scheme is that the offense won’t know where the defense is coming from and the offensive line won’t know which defender to block. It’s been referred to as “controlled chaos” because it looks like the defense is confused or is playing sandlot ball. It can be a very dangerous defense, though, especially for an offensive line that has had struggles all season. The Bears need to utilize a quick-passing attack to prevent the Jets from sending the house all game. For that to work, though, the receivers need to be on the same page as Jay Cutler.

2. Confuse Mark Sanchez

Mark Sanchez is a bad quarterback. Period. Terry Bradshaw included him, and not Jay Cutler, on his “Top 10 Quarterbacks Under the Age of 30” list that he unveiled on FOX NFL Sunday a few weeks ago. It makes you wonder if Bradshaw took too many hits to the head as a quarterback himself. Sanchez is the No. 1 reason why the Jets won’t win the Super Bowl — now, or in any year in the foreseeable future. He’s ranked No. 28 in passer rating with a mark of 74.6. He’s got a completion percentage of just 54.0, which ranks him No. 30. He has thrown just 16 touchdown passes compared to 12 interceptions. On top of everything else, Sanchez is battling a sore shoulder that he injured last week against Pittsburgh. The best way for the Bears to defeat the Jets is to knock around Sanchez, confuse him by sending pressure from different areas and take away the football.

3. Jump out to an early lead to neutralize the run

Continuing from the previous key, the Bears would prefer to let Sanchez throw the football and take the ball out of the hands of running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, who anchor the sixth-best rushing offense in the league. In order to do that, the Bears need force the Jets to play from behind and also stifle the run game early. Scoring won’t be easy, though. The Jets have the No. 5 scoring defense and are allowing just 18.5 points per game. This could be a game in which the defense scores and that would certainly go a long way towards putting the ball in Sanchez’s hands.

4. Win the turnover margin

The Bears defense failed to record a takeaway against either the Lions or the Patriots before picking up five against the Vikings last week. There’s a reason Lovie Smith preaches takeaways and that’s because turnovers usually tell the tale of which team will win the game. The Jets are ranked No. 8 in the league with a plus-5 turnover ratio, so the Bears need to protect the football on offense to prevent placing any further burden on the defense to record takeaways. The Jets are hardly offensive juggernauts — they rank just one spot ahead of the Bears’ offense, averaging 21.1 points per game — so it’s not as if turning over the ball will automatically lead to points for New York. But it is one less possession the offense will have at scoring on a good Jets defense.

Go back to Bears Fan Spot 

http://www.bearsbeat.com/

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
30-40 Career practice squader 
20-30 No NFL future 
0-20 No football future 

Wide Receiver 

LSU

6-2 211

40 time: 4.59

Draft board overall prospect rank: #40

Draft board wide receiver rank: #4

Overall rating: 79*

2/28/10: He wasn’t supposed to be a speed demon, but a 4.59 hurts a lot. He’s not going to get a lot of separation at the next level. He also measured in at 6-2 this week instead of 6-4 so his stock could be taking a drop this week.

1/17/10: The perfect fit for a run heavy pro style offense because he has experience running pro style routes and he’s an amazing run blocker for his age. His frame is still a bit wiry and that could lead to injuries at the next level as he tries to make some of the crazy catches he made in college, but he’s certainly not afraid of anything and will throw his body around for the ball fearlessly. 57 catches for 792 yards doesn’t seem like much for a senior season, but when you consider that LSU passed 336 times this season, all of a sudden those numbers look really good. He was by far the most dominant end zone threat on his roster and his 11 touchdowns more than tripled the total of the guy who was second on the team. He’s got good height, good hands, good fearlessness, good run blocking, and a good red zone presence, but needs to put on more muscle and he’s not fast in comparison to some of the receivers in this draft class.

Update (11/2/09): Big tall wide receiver with solid hands and great run blocking ability. Perfect for a run heavy offense and has the potential to be a top receiver at the next level.

            7/28/09: Brandon LaFell put up very good stats last season as the #1 for LSU, despite the fact that LSU runs one of the most conservative run heavy offenses in the country. What really impressed me about LaFell was his consistency. He didn’t have any games last season that made you say wow, with the exception of a 12 catch 126 yard performance against Troy, but he had at least 48 yards in every game last season. LaFell fits right into the gritty tough style of LSU. He loves to go over the middle and catch balls. He never gives up on a ball and will throw himself out there to get the ball even if it puts himself at risk. On one hand, that’s great and you love that if you’re an NFL scout. On the other hand, you look at how Anquan Boldin, a player who does the same thing, is always hurt in one way or another in the NFL, and then you look at the fact that Boldin is 10 pounds heavier than LaFell and lot bulkier and you worry about LaFell’s health going forward. He needs to add at least 10 pounds to his frame, if not more, to be able to dive after balls over the middle of the field, with all of the big safeties in the NFL. He’s tall, at 6-3, and a great possession receiver, but has not flashed the high touchdown numbers that would suggest that he’s a big time end zone threat, although that may be because of the bad pass offense he played in at LSU. He’s a very physical and tough to guard because of that. Physical wide receivers normally have an easier time transitioning to the NFL than speedsters. His timed speed is below average and if he runs a 40 in the 4.5s, that could really hurt. If he runs one at about 4.48, he should be fine, assuming he can add on the bulk that he needs to, which shouldn’t be a problem because he’s a hard worker. He has very reliable hands and should be a reliable player in the pros going forward. He’s not a future #1 option, but he should be a solid #2 possession receiver that will always be there to make a play on the ball. Because of this weak wide receiver class, that could be enough to sneak him into the 1^st round, but I give him a 2^nd round grade overall. 

NFL Comparison: Dwayne Bowe

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

At one point this season, this team had a lot of hope. They may have been a mere 5-7, but they had one of the toughest schedules in the league. In fact, at that point, they had beaten every sub .500 team they had played (Cincinnati, Carolina). They hung within a touchdown of Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, New York, and Jacksonville.

Rookie Colt McCoy had impressed in 5 starts, leading the team to victories over the Saints and the Patriots, before an ankle injury. Peyton Hillis had emerged into one of the premier backs in the league. The young defense had stepped up big time and elevated this team to victories over Carolina and Miami even without McCoy. Even when they lost 13-6 to the Bills week 14, things still looked promising with McCoy coming back.

However, McCoy wasn’t the same in his final 3 starts, going 54 for 95 for 3 touchdowns, 6 picks and an 0-3 record. Peyton Hillis also hit a rough patch at the same time. The breakout back, who had rushed for 1070 yards, 11 scores, and caught 57 passes for 446 yards and another 2 scores through 13 weeks, only had 107 rushing yards and 4 catches for 31 yards in his final 3 weeks. The Browns ended the season at 5-11 and Head Coach Eric Mangini was fired and the hope that was once strong has dwindled.

However, there is still some hope. Browns fans can hope with time to rest, both McCoy and Hillis can regain their form. Last year was McCoy’s rookie year and Hillis’ first year as a feature back, so it’s possible they both just hit “rookie walls” of sorts. The Browns will almost certainly try to get McCoy better receiving options this offseason.

They also will add to a defense that ranked 13^th in fewest total points allowed, a very impressive number for a young defense. Their defense only accumulated 29 sacks, so that’s obviously an area they can improve. However, this defense does look promising for the future thanks to the breakout play of rookie corner and 7^th overall pick Joe Haden.