Last week overall: 2-2

Last week ATS: 3-1 (+980/+64%)

Overall picks: 170-90 (.654)

ATS Picks: 136-113-7 (+$3660)

Lock picks: 12-5

Upset picks: 34-35 (+1648)

Sports Betting FAQ

Wild Card Round Recap: I nailed my 3 highest picks and dropped my lowest (Colts for 2 units), earning me $980 (or 64%) over the course of just 4 games. I went 2-2 straight up (also had the Colts winning + didn’t think the Seahawks could actually win), but nailed my upset pick for another $110 (Packers over Eagles), earning me $1090 in the course of 4 games. I’d say that’s a pretty successful weekend. Hope I can keep it up.

Random college football notes: I enjoy bashing on-air commentators so I definitely got a kick out of Brent Musburger’s commentary of the “National Championship” of college football last night. Here were some of the moments.

Referred to the Arizona Cardinals as the Phoenix Cardinals, which they haven’t been since 1993. This was likely an honest mistake, but I find it hilarious considering Brent Musburger is old as shit. There’s a very good chance he still thinks it’s 1993.

Prematurely called a touchdown. This wouldn’t be so bad it the guy was even close to the end zone. Musburger started his call at about the 8 yard line and the caller carrier was stopped at the 3. Also, this wasn’t the first time Musburger prematurely ejaculated on a call. He does this all the time. Here’s the video, so you know what I’m talking about.

Before the game deciding field goal, he said this was for all the Tostitos (Tostitos Bowl). Many bash him for this. I will applaud him for this. He accurately pointed out what this meaningless “championship” game was for. Tositos. The point is college football needs a playoff system. How can Auburn call themselves National Champions when there was another undefeated team (TCU)? Maybe Auburn would have crushed TCU. Key word is maybe. We don’t know. Anyway, here’s the Tostitos video.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Baltimore Ravens 16

Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Pick against spread: Baltimore 3 units (-330)

Like every game this week, this game is a rematch. Joe Flacco has never beaten Ben Roethlisberger. In Flacco’s career, he has played 7 games against the Steelers (1 in the playoffs). He is 0-5 against Big Ben and 2-0 against all other Steelers starting quarterbacks (Dennis Dixon, Charlie Batch). However, it’s not like he’s getting blown out. In those 5 losses, 3 were by 3 points, 1 was by 4, and one was by 9.

Two situations work for the Ravens in this game. One, they are coming off of a road playoff win. Teams coming off a road playoff win in round 1 are 7-2 ATS since 2005. The Steelers are coming off of a bye, a situation teams are 7-13 ATS in since 2005.

I think Joe Flacco can cover this line here, as it is more than a field goal. The Steelers never blow out the Ravens in the Joe Flacco era and they have two key situations working against them. However, I pick Big Ben to win straight up and continue his dominance, though it’s a close matchup. I think this is Joe Flacco’s best chance to beat Big Ben yet after how close he game late in the regular season. I’m taking the points.

Green Bay Packers 31 Atlanta Falcons 21 Upset Pick (+120)

Spread: Atlanta -2.5

Pick against spread: Green Bay 4 units (+400)

The Packers may have lost by 3 in Atlanta earlier this season, and teams are 8-17 straight up in a same site non-divisional rematch against a team they lost to earlier in the season since 2002, but things have changed since. One, the Packers can now run the ball. James Starks rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries against an average Eagles run defense last week. That’s a huge difference from the 22 yards on 10 carries lead back Brandon Jackson rushed for week 12.

The Packers are also more disciplined. The reason they lost week 12 despite outgaining the Falcons by 124 yards was 8 penalties. Penalties were a huge issue for this team earlier this year, but they’ve calmed down in recent weeks with 11 in their past 3 games.

Finally, the Falcons have lost at home. The Saints came in week 16 and beat this team for the 2^nd time in Matt Ryan’s career at home. Teams aren’t going to be afraid to go into Atlanta and play the Falcons anymore. In fact, in Matt Ryan’s career, he’s only beaten 3 playoff teams at home, the Panthers, the Ravens (short travel week), and these Packers. I think the Packers can right things this week.

Going back to the trend I mentioned earlier, teams coming off a road playoff win are 7-2 ATS since 2005, while teams coming off byes are 7-13 ATS. Aaron Rodgers is also 8-4 ATS as an underdog.

Even if the Falcons do win, it will be a close game. The Packers haven’t lost by more than 4 all season (and no more by three in games that Rodgers has started and finished), while the Falcons’ 3 wins against playoff teams this season (excluding Seattle) were all decided on the final possession. I know I’m only getting 2.5 points here, but playoff games are normally close so if the Falcons win, this game could definitely be that close.

Speaking of their only 3 wins against playoff teams being decided on the final possession, that shows something. They haven’t exactly dominated playoff teams this year. They are 4-3 straight up, but 3 of those wins were on the final possession and the other was against Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks 21 Chicago Bears 19 Upset Pick (+375)

Spread: Chicago -10

Pick against spread: Seattle 5 units (-550)

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I don’t trust this Bears team to win 3 straight games and win a Super Bowl. They’ve had too many games where they’ve just played terribly this season. I certainly don’t trust them to cover a huge spread, especially against a team that beat them in the same location earlier this season. Teams that win a non-divisional game are 17-8 straight up in a same location rematch since 2002 (See: Packers over Eagles last week). The Seahawks certainly qualify for that.

The Bears have had trouble winning games by double digits this year. Of their 11 wins, only 4 were by double digits, Carolina, Minnesota, Tyler Thigpen’s Miami Dolphins, and Joe Webb’s homeless Minnesota Vikings. The Seahawks may be the worst team ever in the playoffs, but they’re better than those 4 teams.

Now let’s look at Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler in his career as a favorite of 6+ is 1-8 ATS and 0-3 ATS as a favorite of 9+. Cutler is in his first playoff start. Quarterbacks favored in their first playoff start are 2-12 ATS since 2003. Quarterbacks at home in their first playoff start are 1-13 ATS since 2003. Quarterbacks favored at home in their first playoff start are 1-10 ATS since 2003. It hurts Cutler even more that the guy playing QB for the other side is extremely experienced and has made a Super Bowl. Oh, and I didn’t trust Cutler to cover a double digit spread BEFORE I knew that.

The Bears might also be rusty off of a bye week. As I’ve said before, teams with a first round bye are 7-13 ATS the next week since 2005. This could be especially disastrous for this team because so much of their offense relies on good timing. Last time they were coming off a bye, they almost lost to the then winless Bills.

Teams coming who are coming off of a bye and who lost week 17 are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 instances. This makes sense. That means it’s been at least three weeks since this team won a game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off a straight up win as an underdog and are still big underdogs (7+). This is a lucrative betting angle in the regular season, but in the playoffs it’s even better. Teams in that situation are 6-1 ATS since 2002.

Overall, these are the reasons why I like the Seahawks to cover. I don’t trust Jay Cutler as a rule. Jay Cutler struggles as a large favorite. Jay Cutler is in his playoff debut and will be a home favorite. That’s a lot of pressure, especially for Cutler. The Bears are coming off of a bye and haven’t won a game in 3 calendar weeks. This especially hurts because of how much their offense relies on timing. The Packers disrupted their timing week 17 and the bye week probably didn’t help. The Bears haven’t beaten any average or better teams by 10+ all year. The Bears lost to Seattle earlier this year in Chicago. Enough reasons for you? 5 units on the underdogs. In fact screw it, give me the money line (+375) as well. Seattle 21 Chicago 19.

An interesting side note. Seattle could win this game. If they do and the Packers win as well, the Seahawks will face in Packers IN QWEST next week. Seattle making the Super Bowl doesn’t sound farfetched. All of a sudden those 20/1 odds that Seahawks wins the NFC look pretty good. Putting down $100 to win $2000 would be a smart move. Quote me on that. That’s adding to my winnings if it happens and subtracting if it doesn’t. Hell, even betting $10 to win $200. There’s a lot stupider things you could do with $10 (like buying a ticket to the movie Tron). 

New England Patriots 37 New York Jets 21

Spread: New England -9

Pick against spread: New England 2 units (-220)

The Patriots won this one by 42 in Foxboro in the regular season and Tom Brady is even better in the playoffs, so the Pats should cover with ease right? Well, while Brady is a better winner in the playoffs (still 14-4 career even after an ugly loss to the Ravens last year), he covers at less than a 50% rate (8-10). The Jets also cover well on the road (12-7) and as underdogs (9-5) in the Rex Ryan era.

That being said, I don’t know how much of a chance I give the Jets defense to stop the Pats’ offense. No one has held them under 30 since November 7^th, over 2 calendar months and 8 games ago. The Jets defense doesn’t match up with the Pats’ offense well at all. Pay no attention to the Jets holding the Pats to 14 week 2. That was a completely different offense (heave risky deep balls to an aging, lethargic, well covered Randy Moss all game).

The Pats have become a short throw, screen and YAC offense since then. Tom Brady’s favorite target has become the open one rather than Moss, which nullifies the effectiveness of Darrelle Revis and (if he decides to show up this week) Antonio Cromartie. The Jets also like to blitz, which doesn’t do you any good against the Pats amazing offensive line and Brady’s uncanny ability to get the ball out fast to the open receiver short in space against the blitz. The Pats will score 30+ again.

In order to cover if the Pats score exactly 30, the Jets will need 21. However, if the Pats score 34+ as they’ve done in 6 of their last 8, the Jets will need 25+. I don’t know if I trust Mark Sanchez to get those points.

However, the situations work against the Pats. The Jets are coming off a road win, while the Pats are coming off of a bye. Also remember Brady’s ATS record in the playoffs isn’t great. I’m picking the Pats here for 2 reasons, even though the situations say otherwise.

Teams normally don’t do well after a bye. The Pats do. In the Brady/BB era, they’ve had a first round bye 4 times. In 2001, they won by 3 following the bye. In 2003, they won by 3. In 2004, they won by 18. In 2007, they won by 11. This team is just so good when they have an extra week to prepare.

Here’s a stat for you. In the Brady/BB era, they are 22-4 straight up in games in which they got an extra week or more to prepare (off of a first round bye, off of a regular season bye, season opener, Super Bowl). This is excluding 2008, when Brady was hurt, though it’s worth noting they went 2-0 in this situation in 2008 even without Brady. It’s also worth noting they’ve won 15 of their last 16 in this situation, with that one loss coming in Super Bowl 42.

My second reason is that Rex Ryan and Antonio Cromatie both called out Tom Brady this week and called him overrated and an “asshole”. Brady’s going to be pissed and when he’s pissed, he normally destroys teams. 

Nose Tackle/Defensive Tackle

Tennessee

6-2 327

40 time: 5.17

Draft board overall prospect rank: #20

Draft board nose tackle rank: #2

Overall rating: 86*

            3/23/10: Dan Williams is, as funny as it may sound, a do everything nose tackle. There are very few nose tackles in the NFL as versatile as he could be. He can play both the 4-3 scheme as a defensive tackle and the 3-4 scheme as a nose tackle. He gets a very powerful push off of the line and is in great physical shape. He has a very low body fat percentage for his weight and is just pure initial explosion. He is an amazing athlete for his weight. He moves extremely well for his size and has great quickness and lateral mobility, though his pass rushing repertoire is fairly limited. He has great instincts against the run and can really stuff holes in an instant. He also defends the pass well and has a knack for knocking the ball down at the line of scrimmage and can even defend guys out of the backfield, which makes him a very intriguing fit for a zone or Tampa 2 team needing a big run stuffing defensive tackle who can also pick up a man out of the backfield. He does a great job of collapsing the pocket and, though he had very few quarterback sacks in his career, he creates very good pressure in a hurry. He doesn’t have a great 2^nd burst after his first initial burst and he tends to wear down late in games. He is a bit of a one year wonder and wasn’t regarded very highly until this season when he excelled in Monte Kiffin’s zone style scheme. He has some issues with lack of motivation in the past, though he had no issues with that this year, a very good sign. He draws double teams often and is very capable at shedding and stacking and opening up holes for smaller, less physical ends, which would make him a great fit for a zone scheme, yet another reason why he would fit a zone scheme despite his size. I think he’s regarded overall as the best nose tackle in this class, though I have him 2^nd behind Terrence Cody because of Cody’s potential. However, there is no denying at Williams is a very versatile nose tackle who can play any scheme. With the vast amount of teams now switching to the 3-4, Williams will be in high demand on draft day and I would be very surprised if he fell to the 2^nd round. He could possibly go as high as 9 to Buffalo, the way BJ Raji did last year, going 9 to the Packers as a nose tackle.

NFL Comparison: Casey Hampton

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

13. DT Nick Fairley A-

Lions GM Martin Mayhew probably jizzed in his pants when he saw he had the choice between Fairley, Robert Quinn, and Prince Amukamara. I think Quinn and Amukamara filled bigger needs, but if Fairley was tops on their board, which he obviously was, I can’t fault them too much. Adding Fairley with Ndamukong Suh at defensive tackle, with Sammie Lee Hill and Corey Williams as depth guys, and Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril at the ends, gives them one of the best defensive lines in the league. Somewhere Jay Cutler has preemptively sprained his knee.

44. WR Titus Young A-

Again, value over need getting a late first round value in Titus Young in the mid 2^nd round. It’s not like they didn’t need someone like Young, a dynamic slot receiver who can provide depth and contribute on special teams, but they needed a left tackle, cornerback, or a safety more than anything here.

57. RB Mikel Leshoure A

Again, value over need getting a late first round value in Mikel Leshoure in the late 2^nd round. I think Leshoure is a better value at 57 than Young was at 44 and he also fills a bigger need as Jahvid Best can’t carry the load. They’ve had to rely on Maurice Morris down the stretch as their feature back for two straight years. That’s bad. Nothing wrong with this pick at all.

157. OLB Doug Hogue B

Hogue was actually a reach at this point by my board, but they are filling a need and there’s no doubt he was best available on their board. That’s just how they operate and how they have operated in the last 3 years since their new regime took office.

209. OT Johnny Culbreath B+

Another reach by my board, but they desperately need a left tackle. Jeff Backus might be decent now, but he’s in a contract year and he’ll be 34 at the end of next season. They have Jason Fox and Corey Hilliard in the mix, both of whom they do like. Culbreath gives them another potential future left tackle in the mix. He wasn’t in my top 300, however, so he is a minor reach, but it’s the 7^th round and it fills a major need so I’ll let it slide.

Overall:

Their biggest holes going into this draft (in no particular order) were cornerback, safety, outside linebacker, and offensive tackle. They didn’t draft a linebacker until the 5^th round or a tackle until the 7^th round and they didn’t draft a single defensive back, but considering they only had 5 picks and they got excellent values with their first 3 picks, who also do fill somewhat of a need, this was still a very, very good draft. Fairley gives them another dynamic defensive lineman. Leshoure and Titus Young give them two more explosive offensive playmakers. If Matt Stafford can stay healthy next year, this could easily be a playoff team.

Grade: A-

Running Back

Boise State

5-9 223

Draft board overall prospect rank: #30

Draft board overall running back rank: #2

Overall rating: 81 (borderline 1^st/2^nd round)

40 time: 4.47

Games watched: Boise State/Toledo, Boise State/Fresno State, Boise State/Arizona State

Positives

·         Runs with great pad level

·         Incredibly tough

·         Strong, powerful, tough to tackle in open field (28 reps of 225)

·         Good size (5-9 223)

·         Gets low and uses his blockers well

·         Good patient and vision

·         Tough, gritty player who fights for every last yard

·         Shifty, elusive player who cuts well

·         Good timed speed (4.47)

·         Two years of great production (2010: 201 carries for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns 2011: 263 carries for 1299 yards and 16 touchdowns)

·         Great hands out of the backfield (28 catches in each of last 2 seasons)

·         Above average pass protector

·         Intelligent player who picks up blitzes very well for his age

·         High character, high motor player

·         Good work ethic and in great shape

·         Well and able special teamer

·         Returned a kickoff to the house in 2011 (while averaging 34 yards per return) and was one of Boise State’s best special teamers in 2008

·         Versatile athlete who played some cornerback in 2009 before moving back to running back

·         True 3 down back who can contribute on the 4^th down (special teams) if you want

·         Good goal line back

Negatives

·         A lot of tread on his tires already (617 career carries)

·         Senior season was inferior to junior season

·         Struggled with injuries as a senior, looked sluggish at times

·         Violent running style could be the cause of future injuries

·         Lacks elite burst

·         Doesn’t play quite as fast as his 40 time (4.47)

·         Lacks breakaway speed

·         Didn’t play an elite level of competition

Comparison: Mark Ingram

When I watched Martin against Toledo and Fresno State, I put him into that borderline 3^rd/4^th round range with power backs like Temple’s Bernard Pierce and Utah State’s Robert Turbin. This was because I thought he was just a power back. I was impressed with his toughness and grittiness and pad level to break tackles, but I didn’t see a whole lot of speed and explosion.

He had to break a ton of tackles because the defense could close on him so quickly. He had 70 yards on 19 carries against Toledo and 94 yards on 16 carries (with 55 of them one on carry) against Fresno State. He was averaging 4 yards per carry against weak competition and I didn’t see him as a potential feature back type in the NFL.

Turns out, he was playing hurt, further proving his toughness and grittiness. This injury did cost him a game against TCU (Boise State’s only loss of the season), but once he returned, he was much better. He finished with 115 carries for 543 yards and 7 touchdowns in his last 4 games and started looking more like the player he was in 2010 when he rushed for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns on 201 carries.

I was particularly impressed with him against Arizona State, not too shabby an opponent, in Boise State’s bowl game. He started the game with a kickoff return to the house, but that wasn’t what impressed me. He continued to be a ferocious bowling ball of a running back, breaking tackles like Maurice Jones Drew or Ray Rice, but he showed more speed and burst. He still wasn’t elite in that area, but it was much better. He rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries, despite not breaking a gain of more than 21 yards all game. I felt he could be a steal on day 3 if he still fell that far.

However, he won’t fall that far. Looks like everyone else has taken notice that he’s healthy. Driven by a strong Combine performance, where he essentially benched his body weight (225) 28 times, ran a 4.47 40 at 5-9 223, up 8 pounds from his playing weight, and impressed in position drills, particularly as a blocker and a receiver (he also had 56 catches from 2010-2011).

Now he’s a legitimate early to mid day 2 prospect and is in the running with David Wilson and Lamar Miller to be the 2^nd back off the board after Trent Richardson. He probably won’t fall out of the 2^nd round. I have him 2^nd behind Richardson because, while I think Miller and Wilson are more explosive, Martin is bigger and tougher and will be better on 3^rd down. He looks like a true 3 down back right away and he can even contribute on special teams as well. A jack of all traits, Wilson played gunner on special teams, cornerback on defense, and kick returner on special teams, in addition to running back in his 4 years at Boise State.

As a prospect, I compare him to Mark Ingram. Ingram was the bigger name coming out last year (and going 28^th overall) because he played for Alabama and won the Heisman. However, they are similar players with similar backgrounds. In 2008, Ingram was a backup and rushed for 875 yards (5.5 YPC) and 13 touchdowns on 158 carries. In 2009, Wilson was a backup and rushed for 769 yards (5.9 YPC) and 15 touchdowns on 129 carries.

In 2009, Ingram had his best season and rushed for 1658 yards and 18 touchdowns on 271 carries (6.1 YPA). In 2010, Wilson has his best season and rushed for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns on 201 carries (6.3 YPC). In 2010, bothered by injury, Ingram had a down year and rushed for 728 yards (5.1 YPA) and 12 touchdowns on 143 carries. In 2011, bothered by injury, Martin had a down year and rushed for 1299 yards and 16 touchdowns on 263 carries (4.9 YPA). Ingram ran a 4.53 at 5-9 215.

Wilson ran a 4.47 at 5-9 223. Both are gritty, tough backs who run with good pad level, break tackles, and play all 3 downs, but lack elite burst and breakaway speed. The main difference is level of competition, which is why Martin is a 2^nd rounder and Ingram is a 1^st rounder, but they are very similar prospects.

Ingram had a rough rookie year, but he’s still got time to turn it around. He’s far from a complete bust. Martin should have a better rookie season if he can stay healthy. Ingram’s problem as a rookie was injuries, something that could plague Martin based on his history of usage, his past injury history, and his style of play. Both Martin and Ingram, however, do have bright futures.

Wide Receiver 

Minnesota

6-3 217

40 time (projected): 4.54

Draft board overall prospect rank: #58

Draft board wide receiver rank: #5

Overall rating: 77*

1/17/10: What you see is what you get with him, but what you’re getting is a big consistent #2 option with good hands. He’s not overly athletic, but he’ll be a good red zone threat and possession receiver with his size and good hands. He’ll compliment an inconsistent deep threat very well at the next level, but there isn’t a ton of upside with him.

Injury Update (11/8/09): He will miss the entire rest of the season with a foot injury. He shouldn’t fall too far as he has three straight productive statistic seasons, but he does have a history of injuries which is a potential red flag. He should still go in the 2nd round though.

            9/7/09: Eric Decker is an extremely big and powerful wide receiver. He’s a tough matchup for any corner because of his size and if he gets the ball in the open field he can run over receiver. He has very good hands and can make all of the easy catches and a bunch of the harder ones too. There are some questions as to whether or not he is committed to the sport of football. He has been drafted twice in the MLB draft and plays outfield for the Minnesota baseball team. However, that shouldn’t be a problem heading forward. Decker has said no to major league baseball twice to focus on college football and why wouldn’t he. In the MLB draft he was a 39^th round pick and a 27th round pick and in the NFL draft, he has a shot to go in the first 2 rounds with a big season senior season. Another year like last year, 84 catches for 1047 yards and 7 touchdowns, despite missing 2 games with injury and playing banged up for most of the season, and he could go in the 2^nd round considering how thin the wide receiver class is next year. His speed and agility are not great. He should run a 40 in the 4.5s, which could scare some teams off, and he doesn’t get much faster than that on the field. He isn’t that quick or agile, even for someone of his size. Despite his large frame, he has yet to establish himself as an endzone threat with only 19 touchdowns in 37 career college games. Right now he projects as a big possession receiver, without a ton of speed or quickness, who has struggled inside the 20. His size, hands, and route running will get him some early looks in the 2010 NFL draft. His size, toughness, and ability to run over defenders make him more NFL ready than most receivers coming out so he should provide a good depth guy from the get go, with the potential to emerge as a starter in a few years.

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

NFL Comparison: Kevin Walter

If you’re expecting this tip to be about Gene Simmons and his giant tongue, you’re out of luck. KISS=Keep it simple stupid and it is a great tip for fantasy owners at this time of year. The NFL Preseason starts this week and people with upcoming fantasy drafts will be looking very closely. Every 20+ yard catch, every 20+ yard completion, every touchdown, every 15+ yard run is reason to move someone up your fantasy board. Right? Wrong. Preseason stats rarely matter. Save yourself some time and look at these 5 types of players this preseason. 

Guys coming back from injury: For these guys, the preseason does matter. These guys coming back from injury, however good they were before, have to prove themselves again before you can truly feel safe using an early pick on them, especially with running backs.

Guys who get injured: This one is obvious so I almost don’t have to put this down, but if a guy gets hurt in the preseason, so does his fantasy stock. Injury reports are our friends. Unless they are coming from Bill Belicheck, they are most likely accurate. There’s a big difference between a guy going out with a knee sprain and a guy going out with an ACL tear.

Rookies: While players coming back from injury have to prove themselves all over again, rookies have to prove themselves. Period.

Guys in position battles: Here you should not pay attention to the stats as much as who’s getting the reps on the field, especially during weeks 3 and 4. If a player gets a week 3 or week 4 start in the preseason, he’ll likely get the week 1 start. If you believe in the ability of a player who is trapped in a position battle, watch to see if he’s on the field a lot in the preseason. 

Guys you’ve never heard of: The preseason is a great time to see the abilities of players you’ve never heard of, for three reasons. One, they could get playing time this season if there’s an injury, allowing you to pick them up off of waivers, two, they could get playing time in future season and if you plan on playing fantasy football in the future its good to know the abilities of players that other drafters haven’t heard of, and three because if they’re getting preseason reps, they could win a starting job and if they do that, you could get them for cheaper in fantasy drafts because other drafters haven’t heard of them either.

Free Agency Priorities

Running Back