Colts 2010 Recap

The Colts didn’t win 12 games for the first time since 2002, going 10-6, and like 2002, their season ended with a first round playoff loss to the Jets. Peyton Manning threw more interceptions than any season since 2002, had his lowest QB rating since 2002, and his lowest YPA since his rookie year. He completed 66% of his passes for an average of 6.9 YPA, 33 touchdowns to 17 picks. He turns 35 in March and all of a sudden, the talk of his decline is picking up.

However, I don’t blame 2010 on Peyton Manning. Manning played very well, considering his supposrting cast. For most of the season, he was on pace for 700 throws, which would break an NFL record. He finished with 679, but still, you can see how much this team relied on him with Joseph Addai hurt for most of the year and neither Mike Hart nor Donald Brown able to establish themselves on the ground at all. They ran 393 running plays, which means they passed a whopping 63.2% of the time.

Peyton Manning’s line didn’t do him any favors. He only took 16 sacks because he’s Peyton Manning, but his line still struggled. Manning has a knack for getting the ball off before the pressure gets to him, but this year he had less time than normal and that led to bad decisions downfield. On several of his interceptions, including ones against San Diego, Dallas, and New England, his arm was hit right before, alterring the angle and the tracjectory of the pass.

On top of all that, his receiving corps were banged up. Anthony Gonzalez and Austin Collie missed large parts of the season. Dallas Clark missed most of the season. That left them with Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Blair White, and Jacob Tamme. Wayne and Garcon dropped more passes than last year and Tamme, while he was statistically impressive, also had a bunch of drops.

Put it all together, and Peyton Manning was facing a defense that knew he was going to pass, having to get large chunks of yardage through the air because his ground game wasn’t doing anything, with a lin that couldn’t protect, and receivers who couldn’t catch. I say he played pretty well all things considered. His decline is minimal, if any.

That being said, he does turn 35 in March, and only have one Super Bowl win (over Rex Grossman). His career record in the playoffs is now 9-10 after losing to the Jets. That part of his legacy is in sever jeopardy. He will likely be able to break most of Brett Favre’s records in the regular season, but like Favre, it’s very likely he only has one ring when he calls it quits.

This team still has a lot of hope for next season though. They finished the regular season strong with 4 straight wins, to bounce back from a 6-6 start. They played a lot better once they got healthy and they were very close to beating the Jets in the playoffs. They are in significantly better shape than anyone else in their division so the division should still be there’s next year. Peyton Manning’s window is closing, but it hasn’t closed.

 

Cowboys Needs 2011

Free Agency Priorities

Safety

Alan Ball at free safety is terrible. I can only assume they didn’t draft a safety because they plan on signing a veteran in free agency. Gerald Sensabaugh is a free agent at strong safety, so if he’s not resigned, they’ll have to sign someone else in free agency.

3-4 Defensive End

Stephen Bowen, Marcus Spears, Jason Hatcher are all free agents at end. Best case scenario, they resign the promising young Bowen as a starter and one of the other two for depth. Otherwise, they’ll have to find someone through free agency. I don’t know why they didn’t focus on this position in the draft.

Cornerback 

They seem committed to Terence Newman, but depending on what the cap is next season, they might not be able to afford the overpaid, old, injury prone cornerback. If so, they’d replace him with a cheaper veteran because they didn’t add a cornerback until the 5th round of the draft. 

 

Draft Needs 

Cornerback

Their pass defense somehow got worse after Wade Phillips left. Terence Newman will be 33 soon and Mike “pass interference” Jenkins committed so many pass interference penalties that he earned the nickname “pass interference.” Their pass defense ranked 29th in the league so at the very least they need depth at the position.

Drafted Josh Thomas (#143) 

Offensive Tackle

1st year starter Doug Free actually had a solid year at left tackle. Marc Colombo at right was terrible though, really showing his age. He was benched on several occasions for Alex Barron who is worse and battled injuries on several occasions as well.

Drafted Tyron Smith (#9) 

Nose Tackle

Jay Ratliff is expected to move to 3-4 end in Rob Ryan’s new defensive scheme. This fills their hole at 3-4 end opposite Stephen Bowen/Igor Olshansky, but they now need a new nose tackle. They’ll look at Phil Taylor in the 2nd round and Jerrell Powe in the 3rd. 

Rush Linebacker

DeMarcus Ware led the league with 15.5 sacks, but outside of him, no one had 5. Anthony Spencer has not stepped up and become the elite rush linebacker they need opposite Ware.

Safety

At 185 pounds, Alan Ball is too small to consistently play safety. He also struggles in coverage and was partially responsible for their 29th ranked pass defense.

Guard

Both starting guards are on the wrong side of 30 so young depth is needed unless they see Sam Young as a potential guard of the future.

Drafted David Arkin (#110) 

Center

Andre Gurode is also on the wrong side of 30.

 

Dawan Landry Jaguars

 

Dawan Landry is a hell of a run stopper with 200 tackles combined in the last 2 years as a strong safety for the Baltimore Ravens. He was better in coverage last year, but in 2009, he was one of the worst safeties in coverage in the league. Plus, he’s spent his entire career next to Ed Reed and with a great front 7 in front of him. He could easily be the product of a great supporting cast. The Jaguars needed safety help and Landry is definitely better than anything they had there last year, but giving him 5 years 27.5 million with 10.5 million of that guaranteed might not look like a smart move in a few years if Landry is just an average safety or worse in the league.

Grade: C

 

Dolphins Beat Bills

By Paul Smythe 

I am not sure how happy I should be about this win.

On one hand, the Miami Dolphins were able to move the ball pretty well(except for the third quarter), and they were also able to shut down the Buffalo Bills offense for practically the whole game.

Most importantly, though, was that they were able to get a season opening win for the first time in forever. It is good to see a “0” in the losses column after the first game.

One the other hand, the Miami Dolphins special teams did not perform well at all. Yes, Kicker Dan Carpenter hit two field goals and Brandon Fields had an incredible punt to pin the Bills late in the fourth quarter, but that hardly makes up for the other problems with our special teams.

If you compare the points Carpenter earned, missed, and gave up, he ended up with 0 points. That probably does not make any sense, so let me explain:

Carpenter made two field goals, which is six points in his favor, but he also missed a field goal, which I count as a loss of 3 points. That puts his total at 3 points. Carpenter also kicked the ball out of bounds on the kickoff, which gave the Bills great field position on the 40 yard line. They used that position to get in field goal range and kick a field goal.

So, if Carpenter had not messed up on those two kicks then you would be looking at an 18-7 win (+3 to Miami for the missed field goal and -3 to Buffalo for the bad kickoff) for the Dolphins.

Another big problem was Punter Brandon Fields’ punting on fourth downs. He had multiple punts that didn’t go nearly as far as they should have and gave the Bills better field position. Thankfully, none of the punts hurt the Dolphins too much because of their strong defense.

Chad Henne, who is going to be the most scrutinized player until he starts doing extremely well, was pretty good in Buffalo. He was 21 for 34 with 182 yards and no touchdowns. He did good, but there were still a lot of incompletions because he was out of sync with the receivers. That will develop with time, though, and I am not worried about it. The running game will always be there to help in times of need.

Marshall was, as always, a reception machine with 8 receptions for 53 yards. He would have had over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown if Henne had not underthrown him on a deep pass.

Overall, it was a good game and I am glad that we could get the win under our belts.

http://www.dolphinshout.com/ 

 

Dream Draft

 

This is a fun idea I saw in other places on the internet, a dream draft. The point is, to give myself the 17th pick (right in the middle of the round) in every round, and take the best available player on my board, not paying any attention to team need, and knowing who would be available in the next round. Let’s see some results.

1st round- QB Jimmy Clausen

Perfect. Clausen was a franchise quarterback in my mind and my team of no one needs a quarterback. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. A good quarterback can mask other needs. A good quarterbacks opens up lanes for running backs, makes receivers look good, can make the offensive line look good, and put up points to take leads and allows your defense to blitz, create pressure, and force turnovers. Unfortunately, Clausen did not last to the 17th pick in the 2nd round. He went with the 16th pick in the 2nd to Carolina. However, I’m still more than happy to have him in the first.

2nd round- OT Charles Brown

Brown slipped out of the first round due to a couple of minor injury concerns and questions about lack of size. However, Brown a talented tackle who fits a zone blocking scheme perfectly. He should be a 10 year starter in the NFL at left tackle with good smart footwork and solid lateral agility. Getting a blindside protector for my quarterback is very helpful and it just so happens I can get a solid one here.

3rd round- OT Bruce Campbell

I swear I’m not going crazy over positional value. Campbell is my BPA at this point and happens to play a high positional value position so that’s even better. Campbell could be a left tackle in this league, but he’ll be a solid right tackle as well.

4th round- OLB/DE Eric Norwood

Norwood could serve the Brian Orakpo role on my team and I love what the ‘Skins did with Orakpo last year and hope that other defensive coordinators do similar things with similar players in the future. There were concerns about Orakpo’s ability to cover as a linebacker and to stop the run as an end so the Redskins stuck him at end on passing downs and at linebacker on running downs. Norwood is a similar player, albeit not quite as talented, but he can serve a similar role and be a starter on my team and create a strong pass rush. He’s also my best available out of any player left that wouldn’t be available in the 5th.

5th round- RB Jonathan Dwyer

I thought I was lower on Dwyer than most and when he fell all the way to the 6th, I was shocked. I guess NFL scouts were even more afraid of his option spread background and work ethic concerns than I was. However, he was very productive last year and he’s only 20 years old so I’ll give the kid a shot in the 5th.

6th round- WR Dezmon Briscoe

Like Danario Alexander (before the news of his nasty knee injury surfaced), I felt Dezmon Briscoe was productive enough last year to merit a shot in the mid rounds, despite concerns about his speed and the scheme he played in. Briscoe fell to the late 6th, but I’ll take him here. What he lacks in speed, he makes up for in strength as he looked like a running back in the open field last year. He had good hands on the outside last year too, though he struggled to make catches going over the middle at times.

7th round- CB/S Donovan Warren

I had a borderline first round grade on Warren so when he fell out of the draft completely because of concerns about his speed, people started to doubt me. However, the Jets snatched him as soon as the draft was over and now reports say that Warren may not only be competing for a starting job at free safety this offseason, but he may be the favorite to be their week 1 starter at free safety. Still doubt me?

 

Falcons 2010 Recap

The Atlanta Falcons had an excellent regular season. They won 13 games, winning the division over the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints, who happen to be their closest rival. They also beat the Saints once in New Orleans. Matt Ryan took the from good quarterback to great quarterback in the eyes on many, leading the 13-3 Falcons with a 62.5% completion percentage, 6.5 YPA, and 28 touchdowns to 9 picks. However, they still didn’t win a playoff game and they didn’t just fall short in the first round. They got their asses handed to them 48-21 at home against the Packers.

Before I break down that game, let’s go to week 16. The Falcons sit at 12-2, tied with the Patriots for best record in the league, ready to face the New Orleans Saints. A win would give them a sweep over their talented division rivals and clinch them the division. It would also improve Matt Ryan’s home record to 20-1 in his career, an amazing feat.

However, they lost. That revealed two things. One, you could beat the Falcons in Atlanta. It was possible. Two, this team is conservative to a fault. Down 3 with less than 3 minutes to go, the Falcons decided to punt to the Saints, hoping their defense would get them the ball back for a shot to win it. Drew Brees had other ideas. Of course he did. He’s Drew Brees. You have to fight fire with fire. The Falcons didn’t do that. They lost.

The Falcons mantra for winning games. Run the ball (497 attempts, 5th in the league), convert 3rd downs (46.7% 3rd in the league), control the ball (1074 plays run, tops in the league), play good defense (18 points per game allowed, 5th in the league), don’t turn the ball over (17 turnovers, 3rd in the league), only attempt makeable 4th downs (73.3% 4th down percentage, tops in league), move the chains (353 first downs, 4th in league). It works great when you’re ahead. Not so well when you’re behind. It leads to a lot of 7 point or fewer wins, (7 of their 13), but also a few double digit loss (Philadelphia 31-17).

That Philadelphia game actually foreshadowed their loss to Green Bay. Philadelphia, like Green Bay, is a down the field, vertical offense that can make you play from behind. Green Bay did that and won 48-21. The Falcons didn’t have an answer down multiple score. They hadn’t completed a pass of longer than 46 yards all year. They didn’t have a deep threat. Matt Ryan didn’t have the cannon arm that Aaron Rodgers had. They didn’t even seem to have the plays in the playbook to get big yards. They lost.

 

Four Downs Vikings

By Ryan Glab 

 

A look at four keys for the Bears to beat this week’s opponent.

1. Contain Adrian Peterson

At a quick glance, it seems as though Adrian Peterson has owned the Bears defense since entering the league in 2007. But after examining the statistics even further, the Bears have done a good job of containing Peterson for the majority of the games and instead have allowed him to break off a few big runs that have skewed the statistics. That’s basically how Peterson runs the football, though. Much like Barry Sanders did, Peterson picks up a lot of yards through a few carries. It’s important to stay disciplined when facing him because the Bears can take him out of the game by limiting him to short gains. Peterson has not yet fumbled this season — something he has done far more than any other running back the past few years — which could pave the way for the turnover-happy Bears to pry one away from him. It takes a special effort to stop a special player and that’s exactly what the Bears’ No. 3 run defense will need to do Sunday.

2. Rough up Brett Favre

The New Orleans Saints laid the foundation and the blueprint for how to defeat Brett Favre in last year’s NFC Championship game. That plan is to sack him as much as possible and if the sacks aren’t coming, at least rough him up simultaneously after the throw so that his tired, old body feels the effects later in the game. Defenses may not be able to knock the resilient 41-year-old out of games, but Favre is fighting a losing battle against Father Time. Sure, he still may be able to sling the football around, but his mobility has declined by the year and his consistency is becoming more erratic. If the Bears can register a few knockdowns early in the game, it could and should take its toll on Favre in crunch time — if their is a crunch time in this game.

3. Commit to the run game

The Bears had the winning formula against the Bills: commit to the run on offense, play stout defense, and play good special teams. Although the Bears couldn’t rack up huge gains on the ground, the fact that they stayed committed to the run game enabled them to run playaction effectively and kept the defense honest. It’s one thing for Mike Martz to alter his game plan for one week against the worst run defense in the league. It’ll be another thing if he does it in back-to-back weeks. If the Bears fail to make headway in the run game against Minnesota, will he fall back to a pass-first mentality? Or has Lovie Smith gotten into his head and emphasized the importance of sticking to the run?

4. Focus on protecting field position

Eliminating turnovers on their own end of the field, preventing long drives from the Vikings offense, and creating good special teams returns will help the Bears maintain field position. Against a team that possesses dangerous weapons on offense, the last thing the Bears can afford to do is give them a short field with which to work. With how much the Bears have struggled offensively to move the football, they can’t afford to be pinned deep in their own territory, either.

http://www.bearsbeat.com/

Go back to Bears Fan Spot 

 

 

Giants Panthers Preview

By Matthew Frank

The NY Giants take on the Carolina Panthers this week in the first regular season NFL game at the new stadium.  The Giants hope to avenge last years humiliating loss in the last ever game in Giants Stadium.  For those of you that forgot, the Panthers ran all over the Giants in that game amassing a ton of yardage and holding on to the ball for large portions of the game.

The Giants game plan this week has to be to stop the run at all costs.  Matt Moore is now the signal caller for the Panthers, and there is no reason to be afraid of him at all.  Except for Steve Smith, the Carolina passing game is not to be feared at all.  The Panthers are going to run, and run often, and it is up to the Giants to muscle up and stop them.  This should probably give the Giants revamped secondary a chance for a breather now and then, but it is time to see if the defense line can show its old form again.

As for the offense, the Panthers are a long way away from being the dominant unit they are known for.  Except the typical Giants game plan, run heavy but not afraid to go to the pass, from the start.  Manning will probably not be hesitant to throw the ball up and hopefully we can see the running game get going again.  It will also be interesting to see how the new stadium plays with regards to wind and rain.

http://www.bigbluefootballreview.com/

Jaguars Draft Grades

 

10. QB Blaine Gabbert C

David Garrard turned 33 this offseason and he’s always just been a marginal player so there is a need for a franchise quarterback in town. I just don’t think, in this weak quarterback class, this was the year to do it. They would have been much better off not trading up, taking Kerrigan at 16 to fix their pass rush, keeping their 2nd round pick, and trying to get a successor for Garrard next year. Gabbert had a 2nd round grade in my book so this is a reach. However, I do like that Gabbert has a chance to sit behind Garrard, which will help his development long term, but at the same time, this is a veteran team that needs to be building for now and this is just giving mixed signals. I have mixed feelings on this one.

76. G Will Rackley C-

I never bought into the Rackley hype, so while some will see this as a steal in the 3rd, I see it as a reach and Rackley doesn’t fill a major need either.

114. WR Cecil Shorts B-

Shorts fills a need at wide receiver as they have nothing behind Mike Thomas, but I think Shorts was a minor reach in the 4th as I had a 5th or 6th round grade on him.

121. S Chris Prosinski C

I understand why they drafted Prosinski. Gene Smith likes strong motor, small school kids and he does fill a need giving them safety depth and special teams play, but they really needed to get a starter at safety through the draft and there were much better safeties available.

147. CB Rod Isaac D

Who? I was familiar with about 450 draft prospects to build my top 300, but I’ve never heard of this guy. He may turn out to be good and make me look stupid, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. The only reason this doesn’t get an F is because it fills their biggest need, cornerback.

Overall:

The Jaguars main need coming into the draft should have been to fix their pass defense. They ranked 32nd against the pass last year. They needed defensive end help, cornerback help, and safety help. They didn’t draft a single defensive end and in the secondary, they waited until late to reach for players to fill needs there. They also only had 5 picks because they traded up to get Blaine Gabbert. Quarterback wasn’t a huge need for them and this is a terrible quarterback class so it would have been best for them to wait until next year to get their guy. The only reason this isn’t a D or an F is because I could see Gabbert becoming a franchise guy 2 years down the road after sitting and maturing behind Garrard.

Grade: C-

 

Javier Arenas

 

Cornerback/wide receiver 

Alabama

5-9 197

40 time: 4.52

Draft board overall prospect rank: #48

Draft board cornerback rank: #5

Overall rating: 78*

1/23/10: He could be a decent nickelback and showed good abilities at the cornerback position this year in his 2nd full season at the position, with 70 tackles, 5 sacks, and 5 picks, but his value is as a kick returner. He is one of, if not the best kick returners in the nation so in addition to being a solid nickel corner at the next level, he’ll be a great kick returner as well. He may also pull a Devin Hester and switch over to wide receiver as he’s shown good hands and abilities in the open field.

            9/12/09: Javier Arenas is probably the most gifted punt and kick returner in college football since Devin Hester. He has 6 special teams touchdowns, all on punt returns, in his career, and has averaged an amazing 25 yards per return on kick returns over the past 2 years for Alabama. He did not miss a beat last season on returns, despite playing more at cornerback for the first time in his career. In 2007, he had 27 returns for 657 yards on kickoffs and 25 returns for 323 yards and a touchdown and last year he had 26 returns for 610 yards and 55 punt returns for 650 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has shown that he can play all 3 positions without missing a beat. However, NFL scouts have some reservations about his ability to play cornerback in the NFL. He has struggled some in both man and zone coverage at cornerback and has really only spent 1 full year at the position. He has room to improve with experience, and he’ll have to do that this year if he wants to go in the first round, but if it weren’t for his return abilities, he’d probably be a late round prospect at best. When he gets the ball in his hands, he’s deadly, but he hasn’t shown the best hands, with only 1 interception in his career, though he did return that for a pick-six. Whether his low interception total is a result of bad hands or average skills in man coverage is a bit of a mystery at this point. He did only have 7 pass breakups last season so it may be more of the latter. If he can show he can make catches, he could move to the offensive side of the ball and play wide receiver, which would greatly help him longterm. The more positions he can possibly play, the better his draft stock is, for obvious reason. He’s not small. At 5-9 he weighs 195 pounds which is a pretty big frame for someone of that height so there are no size concerns, with the exception of height. He wraps up really nicely and is a strong helper against the run, part of the reason why Alabama’s run defense was so good on the whole last season. He breaks through the jam at the line of scrimmage well. He had 3.5 tackles for losses and 2 sacks last season. His straight line speed is very average. Its his quickness and agility that makes him so deadly with the ball in his hands. He should run a 40 in the 4.41-4.45 range. His lack of straight line speed hurts him in pass coverage some because he doesn’t have elite recovery speed when caught out of position. He should be a 2nd round pick because of his ability to change the game on special teams, added with his potential at cornerback, or possibly at wide receiver, but I don’t think he’ll ever be anything other than an amazing special teamer who provides nice depth at either wide receiver or cornerback.

NFL Comparison: Ellis Hobbs

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here