Updated 9/3/10 

This top 15 list also happens to be the same list as my “list of guys who if you have anyone else as your TE1 you’re screwed list” (name pending). No offense to tight ends 16 on, but if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league, you don’t want the 16th or 17th best tight end as your TE1. The players have been broken up into tiers to show which players will have similar production to the player above them and which will not.

 

Tier 1 

1. Antonio Gates

9/2/10: Gates will become even more involved in the Chargers offense with Jackson out, especially near the goal line. That’s enough to push him over the top and make him my #1 tight end. 

Antonio Gates led all tight ends in yards last year and was the 3^rd ranked tight end last year. I am not as sold on Vernon Davis as the places who say he’ll be the #1 tight end again (more on that in a moment) this year so Gates should be able to move to 2^nd this year.

2. Dallas Clark

Dallas Clark’s 100 reception, 1106 yard, 10 touchdown season last year may have come as a major surprise to some people, but not as much to me. Granted I didn’t know how good he could be, but Clark is a talented tight end in one of the best offenses in football. After his 77 catch, 848 yards 6 touchdown performance in 2008, it was not that hard to imagine him taking it to the next level. This year, nothing has changed. Clark is still a talented tight end in Indy’s high voltage offense and will remain a favorite target of Peyton Manning. I don’t think he’ll completely match what he did last year, but I would be very surprised if he didn’t come close.

3. Vernon Davis

Vernon Davis was the #1 fantasy tight end last year with 78 catches for 965 yards and a whooping 13 scores. However, I do not have him at #1 this year. The Niners will run the ball more this year. They drafted a big run blocking offensive tackle and a big run blocking offensive guard, so that’s pretty much adios to the spread offense. In the 5 games before Alex Smith took over and they started using more spread, Vernon Davis only had 22 receptions for 262 yards and 3 scores. That’s not bad, but at the same time, it’s not what he was in the spread. Also, those 13 touchdowns scare me. Touchdowns can be pretty inconsistent from year to year and if Vernon Davis had 2 less touchdowns last year, he would have been the 3^rd rated fantasy tight end. With Michael Crabtree maturing into more of a goal line threat this year, Davis could see a decrease in touchdowns. Also, Vernon Davis is not the most historically consistent guy. I know last year was a breakout year, but in his first 3 years, Davis had never had more than 52 catches and 4 scores. I have to see him be a top fantasy tight end for at least more than a year to make him my #1. Don’t expect a huge drop off in play from Davis this year, but don’t expect #1 fantasy tight end again. Only 12 points separated Davis and the #3 tight end Antonio Gates last year so a drop from 1^st to 3^rd is not hard to imagine.

Tier 2 

4. Brent Celek

Brent Celek was actually 4^th out of all fantasy tight ends last year with 76 receptions for 971 yards and 8 scores. Not Jason Witten. Not Tony Gonzalez. Brent Celek. Celek has only had one good year as a pro, but, unlike Vernon Davis, I have 3 reasons why that shouldn’t matter much. The first reason, unlike Vernon Davis, Celek hadn’t had a lot of playing time before last year. Celek didn’t improve in a huge way last year. He just got more playing time. For all we know, he could have always been this good. 2^nd reason, Kevin Kolb is now Philly’s quarterback. This assumed downgrade at quarterback should be bad for all of Philly’s receivers, except Kolb. In the two games Kolb started last year, Celek had 16 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown. I know that’s a small sample size, but it’s a sign of good things to come. 3^rd reason, there was actually a pretty big difference between 4^th and 5^th place last year. Celek had 137 points last year. Tony Gonzalez in 5^th has 117 points. That would be a big drop.

Tier 3 

5. Jason Witten

I’m moving Witten above Tony Gonzalez here, even though Gonzalez had more fantasy points last year. Witten only had 2 touchdowns last year. Touchdowns are traditionally one of the more inconsistent fantasy stats from year to year, especially for tight ends. Witten has never been much of a goal line threat, with a career high of 7 touchdowns, but I think he gets more than 2 next year. He’ll probably be closer to 4-5, which is about his career average. Witten has at least 80+ catches in each of the last 3 years and 1000+ yards in 2 of the last 3 yards. If he gets his touchdowns back up, he should surpass Tony Gonzalez in terms of fantasy points, especially when you consider that Gonzalez is 34 and could be due for a down year.

6. Tony Gonzalez

Tony Gonzalez is historically a top 2 or top 3 fantasy tight end and is certainly a future hall of famer. However, last year, he wasn’t. He wasn’t bad or anything as the 5^th rated fantasy tight end with 117 fantasy points, but he wasn’t his old self, whether it be because of age (he was 33 last year) or playing in a new offense for a new team for the first time in his career. This year, at age 34, I don’t expect him to get any better. He’ll probably be overdrafted in your league based off of his past and his name, but don’t expect much more than 80 catches 800 yards and 6 touchdowns.

7. Zach Miller

Jason Campbell loves to throw to his tight ends. In his first 2 years with Jason Campbell at quarterback, Chris Cooley had yards totals of 786 and 849, both of which were career highs at the time. He only managed 1 touchdown in 2008, but with 8 the year before it’s safe to say 2008 was a fluke in terms of touchdowns. In 2009, despite leaving midway through his 7^th game with an injury and going down for the season, Cooley still had 29 catches for 332 yards and 2 scores. In 2009, despite not playing extensively until Cooley got hurt midway through his 7^th game, Fred Davis had 48 catches for 509 yards and 6 scores. Combine those stats with Cooley’s and Washington tight ends had 77 catches for 841 yards and 8 scores last year. Not bad. With Jason Campbell now in Oakland, Zach Miller figures to have a great year. Miller is as talented, if not more talented than Davis and Cooley. In his last 2 years, despite playing with an ugly mix of JaMarcus Russell, Charlie Frye, and Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, Zach Miller has averaged 61 catches and 792 yards per season. With Jason Campbell at quarterback now, he has a chance to approach 900 yards. Zach Miller has never been much of a touchdown threat, but that’s not really his fault. He may only have 4 touchdowns over the last 2 years, but that’s because the Raiders have only had 23 receiving touchdowns over the last 2 years. In fact, Miller was actually 2^nd on the team in touchdowns last year with 3. Now that they have a quarterback who can actually lead and complete drives to the end zone, Miller should be more in that 5-7 range. At 6-5, you’d figure he’d be their best goal line threat.

 

Tier 4 

8. Jermichael Finley

7/30/10: With Driver hurt, Finley also stands to improve. He’s a tight end and will get a lot of the possession receptions that Driver won’t. He’s also healthy despite there being some questions about his health in the offseason. 

Jermichael Finley was the 13^th rated tight end last year, which is actually pretty impressive considering he missed 3 games with injury and he wasn’t even a starter until week 4. I can’t guarantee his health, his knee is reportedly still bothering him and keeping him out of OTAs, but if he is healthy, he’ll play. Take the stats he had in his 10 starts last year and stretch them across 16 games, and you have 78 catches for 982 yards and 8 touchdowns. There’s some serious upside here.

9. Kellen Winslow 

Josh Freeman has reportedly been putting in a ton of work this offseason, which is really a good thing because he needed a lot of work after his rookie year. However, Freeman’s wideouts are less than stellar. His top returning receiver is slot receiver Sammie Stroughter and he has two talented, but raw rookie receivers in Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn. Winslow is going to be getting plenty of targets next year and if Josh Freeman steps it up at quarterback, Winslow could have a very strong year next year, even better than the 77 catches for 884 yards and 5 scores he had last year. The only big issue, he just had “minor” knee surgery. This might not be an issue if it wasn’t the 5^th time in 6 years that right knee has been operated on.

10. Visanthe Shiancoe

8/24/10: With the 6-4 Rice out of there, Shiancoe will continue to be Favre’s favorite end zone target. He should get double digit scores again and should also be more involved in the passing game between the 20s as well. 

8/6/10: Hey, you know that whole Brett Favre retiring thing. Turns out it was pretty much a hoax. Even though no one in the media heard it straight from his mouth that he was retiring, the entire world went into a panic and assumed he was retiring because of some alleged text messages. 

8/3/10: Downgrade at quarterback = less stats. Favre also made their offense a lot more potent and scored more touchdowns through the air. Shiancoe benefited with 11 scores. However, the 7 he had in 2008 seems more likely for him this year. 

Visanthe Shiancoe was actually the 6^th rated tight end last year. However, much of his success was because he caught 11 touchdowns. He only had 56 catches for 566 yards. Do you really want to bet that he’ll do that again? He could, but then again, 6-4 Sidney Rice could also steal more of his end zones targets. Also, if Brett Favre retires, Shiancoe becomes barely startable. In 2008, Shiancoe had 42 catches for 596 yards and 7 scores. There’s definitely some downside here.

11. Greg Olsen

I had Greg Olsen as a potential top 5 tight end last year. That didn’t happen, he was 10^th, but I’m not giving up on him this year. Jay Cutler loves to throw to his tight ends. In Cutler’s last two years in Denver, tight end Tony Scheffler had a total of 89 catches for 1194 yards and 8 scores. For comparison’s sake, he had 31 catches for 416 and 2 scores last year with Kyle Orton. Cutler is now in his 2^nd year in Chicago, with Chicago’s receivers, and that can only help Olsen this year. Also, Mike Martz is now Chicago’s offensive coordinator, so Chicago should be throwing a bit more this year, also a good thing for Olsen. Olsen is the type of vertical threat tight end that is built to succeed in Martz’ scheme. He’s also only 25 so the former 1^st rounder probably hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Expect him to increase the 60 catches for 612 yards and 8 scores he has last year.

Tier 5 

12. Owen Daniels

9/2/10: Daniels has been activiated from the PUP list and looks likely to start the season opener. There are definitely no guarantees that he will play all 16 games, but he’s very talented when healthy so he could be worth the risk as a TE1.

We’ve seen how good he is when he’s healthy. Daniels had 70 catches for 862 yards and 2 scores in 2008. However, he’s already torn his ACL 3 times. I’m no doctor, but that’s not good. The Texans wouldn’t have drafted 3 tight ends (4 if you count Dorin Dickerson, though he’s probably a receiver or fullback longterm) in the last 2 years, if they were completely sold on his health. At the same time, they wouldn’t have given him a 1^st/3^rd tender if they didn’t like his talent when healthy. This is a serious boom or bust pick and if you draft Daniels, you should probably draft another solid tight end to pair with him.

13. Heath Miller

9/3/10: Moving Ben’s TE up as well. Miller had a breakout year last year and is vastly underrated this year. 

Last year, I had Heath Miller as a sleeper and he delivered with a career high 76 catches for a career high 789 yards and 6 scores. This year, I’m not so optimistic. The drop off from Ben Roethlisberger to either Byron Leftwich or Dennis Dixon for 6 games is going to be a significant one. 

14. John Carlson

John Carlson had pretty solid stats last year for someone often used as a blocker. This year, the Seahawks have signed Chris Baker to take care of more of the blocking, and they drafted Russell Okung in the first so their line shouldn’t be as bad. Carlson will be free to run more routes and catch more balls in his 3^rd year in the league.

15. Jermaine Gresham

I have no idea how Gresham will be used this year. The Bengals have never had a pass catching tight end of his caliber in the Carson Palmer era. I don’t know how his knee will be after the surgery he had last year and I don’t know how he’ll respond to his first competitive football since 2008 (thanks to knee surgery). I do know that, if used right and healthy and 100%, he has the talent to be a fantasy starter caliber tight end next year, even as a rookie. There’s risk here, but if you’re looking for a high upside tight end to pair with a more reliable guy like Heath Miller, Gresham’s a solid option. 

 

This season was a familiar story for the Giants. They started at 6-2 and still missed the playoffs at 10-6 after a late season collapse. Last year they started 5-0 and finished 8-8. In 2008 they started 11-1 and finished 12-4 and didn’t win a playoff game. In 2006 they started 6-2 before finishing 8-8 and not winning a playoff game. In 2004 they started 5-2 and finished 6-10. Even in their Super Bowl winning yeear, they started 6-2 and finished 10-6 before, obviously, rebounding. The only year they haven’t had a second half swoon since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004 was 2005.

There have been Giants players questioning Tom Coughlin’s leadership publicly and I do agree that Coach Coughlin has has overstayed his welcome. He did win a Super Bowl which is probably the main reason he’s still got a job, but they’d be better off with a better coach. He’s not very popular in the locker room and his teams can never close out seasons. He’s had 5 huge collapses in 7 years (from Super Bowl contender to not winning a playoff game) and only won playoff games in one year.

This year’s second half swoon had to hurt more than most. They sat at 9-5, tied with the Eagles for 1^st in the division, leading the Eagles 31-10 with 8 minutes left, in position to take control of the division. However, they let it slip away and the Eagles miraculously won 38-31 on a last second punt return by DeSean Jackson. They next week, still in control of their destiny to make the playoffs, they came out flat against the Packers, giving up 500+ yards of offense and turning the ball over 6 times in a 45-17 loss.

They won the next week against Washington (and even that wasn’t pretty), but the Packers had already taken control of their destiny and with a win over Chicago took that 6^th seed. A closer look at all their second half games show that these struggles were not limited to those 3 games. At 6-2 through 8 games, with talks of another Super Bowl run surrounding this team, they lost back to back games against Dallas and Philadelphia, before barely eeking out a victory over Jacksonville the next week, in a game that the Jags dominated for 2 and a half quarters before taking their foot off the gas. They then beat the Redskins and Vikings, by scores of 31-7 and 21-3, before collapsing in those last 3 games.

The cause of their second half swoon, turnovers and big plays allowed, which always seems to be the cause. Their 42 turnovers led the league. They were even struggling with turnovers before they started swooning, but it just got worse and at worse times. Even in their two “dominant” wins over Washington and Minnesota, Eli Manning threw more picks than touchdowns. Eli led the league with 25 picks this year.

Overall, they didn’t play badly, minus the turnovers. For the first half of the season, they ranked top 10 in passing offense, rushing offense, passing defense, and rushing defense. They finished ranked 8^th in passing offense, 7^th in rushing offense, 13^th in passing defense, and 13^th in rushing defense. All of this made it very hard for me to come up with needs for this team, other than maybe some glue so they don’t cough up the ball so much, and of course a new coach.

 

 

Spotlight #1: Wisconsin G Kevin Zeitler

Spotlight #2: Illinois RB Jason Ford 

1^st quarter

6:13: Ford bounces to the outside for 6 yards.

5:02: Ford with a 5 yard run.

2:10: Ford takes a handoff on a draw, converts 3^rd and 3.

1:37: Ford with a lot of room from a draw, looked slow picking up just 2, bounces off of one guy, but the 2^nd guy brought him down with ease.

2^nd quarter

14:48: Ford catches one in the flat, bounces off a tackle, but ends up being brought down by several guys for a loss. Had he gone down on first contact, he could have gained a couple.

13:48: Ford hits the hole with no burst or effort, stuffed at the line.

11:30: Whitney Mercilus with a sack fumble, giving him 13.5 sacks on the season.

8:11: Zeitler with a nice pull block to open up a hole for Montee Ball.

3:30: Zeitler gets a good push on the goal line.

2:55: Zeitler pulls well on the goal line, opens up just a little space for Ball and it’s enough for the touchdown.

1:26: Ford with a nice first down run on first down, breaks a few tackles with a nice cut and a couple spin moves and then pushes a big pile for the first.

1:08: Ford with a few after a cutback, needs two guys to bring him down, but still looks slow.

0:52: Ford with a nice pass block.

0:32: Jenkins has a 15 yard touchdown called back by a penalty.

0:06: Jenkins has another catch and near touchdown brought back by a penalty. He’s not catching any breaks. Neither of these penalties have really affected the play and both were borderline at best.

 

3^rd quarter

12:14: Zeitler could have done better on a pull block on 3^rd and short. No conversion.

11:33: Zeitler with a better block on 4^th and short, converted.

11:01: Zeitler plows open a huge hole for Ball, 9 yards.

9:34: Zeitler again with not the best block on 3^rd and short.

9:02: Zeitler bounces back again on 4^th and short, Ball runs behind him and converts it.

6:41: Illinois’ quarterback throws a pick on an underthrow to AJ Jenkins. Jenkins did have his man beat, but he needs to do a better job of coming back to that ball. Antonio Fenelus gets the pick, his 4^th on the year after 4 last season. The 5-9 190 pound cornerback could get drafted late as a depth cornerback.

2:54: Ford pushes up the middle for a few, strong pile drag.

1:12: Zeitler helps plow open a big hole.

0:26: Ball runs behind Zeitler for 34 yards.

4^th quarter

14:14: Fenelus deflects a pass, Jenkins gets a hand on it and Wisconsin safety Aaron Henry eventually picks it off.

13:28: Zeitler with a nice pull block, Ball runs behind him for a good gain. Wisconsin’s offense in general has gotten stronger as the game has gone on, both their offensive line blocking and Montee Ball running the ball.

12:12: Ball with his 30^th rushing/receiving touchdown on the year, the 5^th player in NCAA history to achieve that feat.

10:57: Ford catches one for a few out of the backfield.

9:55: Ford catches a shovel pass, doesn’t fall forward for the first, stuffed, failed conversion.

2:33: Zeitler with a holding penalty to wipe out a sizeable gain by Montee Ball.

1:25: Zeitler pancakes a guy, allowing another huge run by Montee Ball.

0:00: Arguably this game could have been Kevin Zeitler’s biggest test of the season, at least so far, because it was his first game without stud center Peter Konz next to him. Konz, a borderline first round prospect at center, missed this game with a dislocated ankle and could miss more. As unfortunate as that injury was, this game allowed Zeitler to show that it wasn’t just Konz up front and that he did.

It took him a little bit to get started, but Zeitler really got going from about the 2^nd quarter on. Wisconsin was constantly running behind him, whether to the right side behind him at right guard, or to the left side behind Zeitler, who had several excellent pull blocks. Behind him, Montee Ball rushed for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns on 38 carries, and added a 3^rd touchdown through the air.

This was also a great game for Ball, who worked towards shedding some of the concerns that maybe he was just a system back. With inconsistencies at center for the first time all season (they had to switch centers mid game), Ball still managed to have a huge game and in the process became just the 5^th first in NCAA history to have 30+ rushing/receiving touchdowns in a season. With up to 3 games left (Penn State, possible Big 10 Championship, Bowl Game), Ball still has an outside shot at breaking Barry Sanders’ single season record of 39 touchdowns.

Even more impressive for Ball was how he literally carried the load in this one. Wisconsin ran 45 times to 13 throws and backup James White only had 1 carry. Including 2 receptions, Ball touched the ball on 40 of Wisconsin’s 58 offensive plays tonight and he only got stronger as the game went on. Considering he was missing his best run blocking offensive lineman, this was an incredibly impressive performance that could separate Ball from guys like Lamar Miller and Chris Polk as he fights to be the #2 back behind Trent Richardson in this draft class.

Speaking of the large disparity in runs to passes, this game really didn’t give anyone a good feel for Russell Wilson. Wilson went 10 of 13 for 90 yards and that one touchdown to Montee Ball. I have him rated higher than most. Even at his size, he has a good, strong arm and his arm angle and release point will prevent him from getting a lot of balls batted at the line at the next level. He’s got great character and intangibles and he’s also a running threat. I had a 4^th round grade on him coming into this one (not an elite prospect, but there’s enough to work with), and this game doesn’t affect my view of him either way.

Wilson’s top target was Nick Toon, as it has been for most of the season. Despite the conservative game plan, Toon still caught 6 passes for 67 yards (more than 50% of Wisconsin’s completions and yards). He looked much healthier than he had in recent games. Injury concerns are going to be a problem, but he has 47 catches for 748 yards and 8 touchdowns in 10 games for a conservative offense this year and that’s while dealing with injuries. He’s a physical presence at 6-3 220 and a great run blocker as well. He could go between early and late day 2 depending on how his physicals and individual workouts go before draft day.

On the Illinois side, their top draft prospect is Whitney Mercilus. The junior defensive end has come out to nowhere to lead the country in sacks and now has 13.5 sacks after a sack fumble today. However, because Wisconsin didn’t pass very much at all, we didn’t get a good chance to see all that Mercilus had. He was a non-factor for most of the game and that could hurt him a bad. Even at 6-3 265, he still needs to add more functional strength against the run if he is going to get serious looks as a 4-3 defensive end.

The one year wonder looks like primarily a 3-4 outside linebacker prospect in the late first round range. If he comes back, has another good year and gets stronger, he could be a top 10 or top 5 pick in 2013. It’s worth noting his sack did not come against Ricky Wagner. Wagner, Wisconsin’s left tackle, would be a day 2 pick should he come out this year, but Wisconsin players rarely declare early and considering he only has one year of experience on the left side, he’d be best served returning for his senior season. If he does that and plays well, he could follow former Wisconsin left tackles Joe Thomas (2004-2007) and Gabe Carimi (2008-2010) into the first round of the NFL draft in 2013.

AJ Jenkins is the other highly rated pro prospect on Illinois’ offense. After a hot start to the season, he’s cooled off a bit in recent weeks as Illinois’ is now on a 5 game losing streak after starting 6-0. Including this game, Jenkins has 34 catches for 351 yards and no touchdowns in the 5 losses and 46 catches for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns in Illinois’ 6 wins.

Tonight, Jenkins had just 4 catches for 31 yards, but he had two good gains and a touchdown wiped out by stupid penalties. He showed good moves in the open field and good athleticism as Illinois did a good job of getting him the ball out of the backfield as well. He carried the ball 3 times for 13 yards and looked good doing it. The 6-1 195 pounder looks like a 3^rd or 4^th round as a slot receiver at the next level.

The spotlighted player on Illinois’ side was Jacob Ford. Ford had a few good plays, but also some not so good plays. He’s not particularly fast and could run a very poor 40 time. The 6-1 235 pounder is tough to bring down and he did rush 8 times for 39 yards, along with 3 catches for 7 yards, but he’s not particularly explosive. He had a good game against Penn State, but overall his season hasn’t been that great with now 557 yards and 8 scores on 144 carries with 17 catches for 132 yards. He looks like he’s not going to get drafted and his chances of catching on as a productive runner as an undrafted free agent aren’t that great in my opinion, though we’ve seen guys do so before.

 

 

Defensive tackle/3-4 defensive end 

Penn State

6-5 304

40 time: 4.98

Overall prospect rank: #23

Overall defensive tackle rank: #4

Overall rating: 85*

1/27/10: After Suh and McCoy go off the board early, Odrick makes a great case to be the next 3-4 defensive end chosen by displaying great agility, size, and hand use this week. He could also push Brian Price to be the 3^rd defensive tackle chosen as well. 

1/20/10: Very good agility for his size and good use of his hands to shed blockers, but a DUI back in March of 2009 could hurt his stock. He fits one gap penetrating schemes and also as a 3-4 defensive end. I think he actually would be better at the next level as a 3-4 defensive end which is good because a ton of teams have switched to the 3-4 lately creating a bigger need for natural 3-4 defensive ends like Odrick.

            10/17/09: Jared Odrick moves extremely well for someone of his size and gets after the quarterback with a great motor and great tenacity. He has 4 sacks already in this young season through only 5 games. His agility and his motor make him a perfect fit for 3-4 defensive end because he both has size and the ability to get off the edge and create pressure on the quarterback. He can play some 4-3 under tackle as a one gap penetrator. He doesn’t have elite size and could be stronger against the run, but when paired with a bigger guy in the middle, he can create a lot of pressure and havoc in the backfield, both tackling running backs for a loss and getting after the quarterback. Does not have the strongest initial burst and does not always play with the correct leverage. He won’t fit in all schemes. He’ll fit most 3-4 schemes, but not most 4-3 schemes because he is a liability against the run for his position. However, he will have an extremely important role in the NFL as a 3-4 defensive end, as more teams are switching to the 3-4, and as a one gap penetrator in certain schemes such as zone schemes and cover 2 schemes. 

NFL Comparison: Tony Brown

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Running Back 

USC

5-11 198

40 time: 4.42

Draft board overall prospect rank: #64

Draft board running back rank: #6

Overall rating*: 75

1/17/10: The possible NCAA violations that came up late last season because of a possible incident in which he drove a car that belonged to his girlfriend and not him should not effect his draft stock because he’s simply never going to have anything close to that situation in the NFL. He’s a good kid and I don’t buy that he has character issues. I do buy that he’s not a starting running back at the next level. He’s fast but he’s not Chris Johnson fast and he doesn’t have elite explosion or change directions very well. He’s not elusive. However, he does have good speed and finally put together a good season in college this year after being a top recruit in 2007 and will be a welcome addition to many of the running back committees in the NFL today.

6/13/09: Football fans have known the name Joe McKnight ever since he committed to USC as the #1 overall high school prospect in 2007. McKnight was supposed to follow in Reggie Bush’s footsteps as a tailback at USC. However, he has never had more than 100 carries in a single season due to the face that he is stuck in USC’s crowded backfield. He has mainly been a 3^rd down back/kick returner/punt returner. However, he still has all that athletic ability that he had coming out of high school and should run a 40 in the 4.3s. Despite his low amount of carries, he had still had success averaging 6.6 YPC in his two seasons at USC, and 7.4 YPC last year. He has caught 44 balls for 396 yards in his limited action. This season, assuming he is fully healthy, as he was not last season, he should got a lot more work out of the backfield. Mark Sanchez is gone and for once USC doesn’t have a stable quarterback. He and Stafon Johnson are going to split carries out of the backfield, McKnight as a change of pace speed back who can catch out of the backfield. In the NFL, he should also serve in that role. Because of his 40 time, scouts will bring up his name in the same sentence with Chris Johnson about 500 times between now and draft day 2010. However, I don’t think that comparison is right. He’s a little slower than Johnson. He isn’t going to run a 4.24, but he’s bigger and stronger than Johnson. He’s not as good of a pass catcher, although he is better than average. Also, he’s more injury prone. 

NFL comparison: Felix Jones

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

 

Deal for Jacksonville: Smiley fills a need up front for the Jaguars and when he’s healthy, he’s a good guard, especially in pass protection. Getting a starting caliber guard for a 7^th round pick is a pretty good deal. The Jaguars ranked 27^th in the league in attempts per sack last year, which is interesting because they spend their first two draft picks on offensive lineman in 2009. It’s actually interesting in general how, when the Jags use back to back picks on a position, they play badly at that position. After all, this team only had 14 sacks last year despite drafting two ends with their first two picks in 2008. Are they going to stink against the run this year because they spend their first 2 picks on defensive tackles?

Grade: A

Deal for Miami: A bit of a cheap sale, might as well release him. Smiley is still an average, if not above average starter in this league, though he has battled injuries, which have caused him to miss 16 games in the last 3 games, and his contract is still pretty big. That being said, I think they sold him too cheap and gave up on him too fast, even with 2010 3^rd round pick John Jerry coming in. Jerry is a bit raw in pass protection and looks like a guy who should not start until 2011. I would have liked to have seen them use him as much needed depth for this year and keep Smiley around. However, I am glad they didn’t just outright cut him as they were rumored to want to do.

Grade: C

 

 

Kyle Williams is the best nose tackle in the league. He might even be the best defensive tackle period. He’s scheme versatile. He can move outside and play end. He plays every down. He’s an absolute beast against the run  and grades out as the best run stuffer in the league by far last season. He still contributed 5.5 sacks and 29 quarterback pressures as a nose tackle. 6 years 39 million with 17 million guaranteed is an absolute bargain for him.

Grade: A

 

Free Agency Priorities

Cornerback

Can you imagine how good this pass defense would be if they had even a decent secondary. They’re adding Nick Fairley to a pass rush that already had 44 sacks last year and is still pretty young. The Lions are probably on the short list for Nnamdi Asomugha and if they miss out on him, they’ll try to sign other cornerback options through free agency. 

Safety

Basically the same thing as cornerback. They ranked 26th against the pass last year with 44 sacks, so their defensive backs weren’t doing their jobs. They didn’t draft a single defensive back and they need a new safety opposite Louis Delmas. 

Outside Linebacker 

Outside of DeAndre Levy, they don’t have any starters at linebacker. Even if rookie Doug Hogue can step up big time as a rookie, they’ll need another starter at the position.

 

Draft Needs 

Cornerback

Detroit’s 26^th ranked pass defense was better this year than most years, but, let’s be honest, when your defensive line gets 44 sacks and you still are one of the worst pass defenses in the league, the defensive backs aren’t doing their jobs.

Offensive Tackle

Jeff Backus was the weak link on an offensive line that surprisingly only allowed 27 sacks this season. Backus is not a capable left tackle in this league, especially in a division where he faces Jared Allen, Clay Matthews, and Julius Peppers on a weekly basis. The offensive line is not fully at fault for all of Stafford’s injuries, but when your 73 million dollar former #1 pick quarterback has a glass shoulder and your team hasn’t made the playoffs in over a decade, you need someone better than Jeff Backus blocking Peppers, Matthews, and Allen. Even Backus supporters can’t argue this, he turns 34 in September. Unless they think Jason Fox is the future, they should focus on this need early.

Drafted Johnny Culbreath (#209) 

Safety

CC Brown started at safety for a few games this year. Yikes! Amari Spievey, a former corner, played there as well for a bit, but he struggled as well. They need a better safety opposite Louis Delmas.

Outside Linebacker

Remember when linebacker was the strength of this defense just a year ago? Now they have nothing at one outside linebacker spot and at the other they have a soon to be 33 year old Julian Peterson.

Drafted Doug Hogue (#157) 

Defensive End

Kyle Vanden Bosch turns 33 next season so while the former Titan had a rebirth this season once reunited with former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, they might want to look at young blood behind him.

Running Back

Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith both can’t stay healthy. Anytime a 31 year old Maurice Morris has to become the lead back down the stretch for two straight years, you know you need help at the position.

Drafted Mikel Leshoure (#57) 

 

 

Based on the season Marshawn Lynch just had, I’d say 8 million per year is a reasonable value for him. Based on his age (26 in April) and his usage (1157 career carries), 4 years is also reasonable for him. However, I’d be nervous to commit 18 million guaranteed to someone like Lynch, a career disappointment with character issues after being drafted 11^th overall in 2007, who had his best season in a contract year. The Seahawks didn’t use their franchise tag on anyone, so I think using it on him and making him prove himself for another year would have been the smarter move.

Grade: C