Uncategorized

Matt Flynn Seahawks

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Is Matt Flynn good? I don’t know. He could be Kevin Kolb. He could be Matt Schaub. Flynn has looked excellent in 2 career starts with the Packers, but that was with Green Bay’s weapons around him, not to mention against not so tough defenses in New England and Detroit. It was also 2 starts and Flynn was thought so little of that he went all the way in the 7th round in 2008. Yes, he led LSU to a National Championship, but Jordan Jefferson was a game away from doing the same.

However, is Matt Flynn better than Tarvaris Jackson? Probably. The Seahawks were not in a position to grab a quarterback in the first round of the draft unless they traded up to grab Ryan Tannehill, who isn’t a whole lot less of a crapshoot than Flynn. They probably would have had to settle for Kirk Cousins, best case scenario, in the 2nd round. They didn’t risk a ton of money (10 million guaranteed, 26 million max over 3 years) and this was a risk they almost had to take given the state of their franchise.

Grade: B

 

Mike Iupati Scout

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

 

Guard

Idaho

6-5 331

40 time: 5.26

Draft board overall prospect rank: #30

Draft board guard rank: #1

Overall rating: 83*

            4/6/10: Mike Iupati is one of the most talked about guard prospects in a long time, drawing premature comparisons to Larry Allen, who is by far the best guard to play the game of football in the last 20 years. He is as much of a first round lock as any guard can be and I’ve seen him mocked as high as #13 to the Niners. I think the hype around him is overly ridiculous. He’s a very high upside raw prospect, but this not a high ready to contribute from week 1 like most think. He is a mauling blocker and uses his weight extremely well and he moves his feet amazingly for his size, but his technique is very raw and he was very inconsistent against less than stellar competition. He struggled in pass protection against the extremely quick Geno Atkins in the Senior Bowl. However, he has had moments of sheer dominance, entire quarters where he has just taken guys out of the game completely. He locks onto a guy and he’s just completely dominant. He can take on nose tackles and still shut them down one on one. He finishes his blocks well and seals off well. However, he is still raw and needs to work on consistency. His motor runs hot and cold. He lacks elite footwork and handwork. He is still a borderline first round prospect and a first round lock, with his elite athleticism, his ability to shut a defensive lineman down one on one and also to move in space well and play a zone scheme even at his size, but he needs to work on consistency. Teams like the Niners, the Steelers at 18, the Texans at 20, the Patriots at 22, the Packers at 23, the Eagles at 24, the Cowboys at 27, and the Vikings at 30 will all have strong interest in him in the bottom half of the 1st and I would be very surprised if he slipped out.

NFL Comparison: Davin Joseph

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Nate Clements Bengals

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

The Bengals needed another cornerback with #2 cornerback Johnathan Joseph going to Houston. Clements was being paid like a #1 cornerback in San Francisco, so naturally he underachieved and was cut. However, in Cincinnati, he’ll be paid like a #2 cornerback and he’ll have Leon Hall opposite him, so he’ll probably play better. He’s older, but this is only a 2 year deal, worth 10.5 million with 6 million in guarantees, which sounds about right.

Grade: A

 

2011 2nd Round

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

1-16 17-32 2nd Round 3rd Round 4th Round 5th Round 6th Round 7th Round

 

33. Miami Dolphins- QB Colin Kaepernick (Nevada)

Trade:

New England receives pick 2-7 (510) and pick 4-14 (74)

Miami receives pick 2-1 (580)

Miami moves again, this time up, to secure Colin Kaepernick, leapfrogging Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Denver, all who have shown interest in quarterbacks, to do so. At the price of a 4th rounder, it’s worth it. New England, meanwhile, moves down again, as they always seem to. They don’t feel there are any players they want here that can’t be had at 39.

34. Buffalo Bills- TE Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame)

The Bills pass on another quarterback here, passing on Andy Dalton after passing on Blaine Gabbert in the first. Adam Schefter seems to think that they aren’t going to take a quarterback early, instead going with Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2011 with a better supporting cast. Normally I wouldn’t agree with this decision, but this quarterback class is so bad, and so many teams need quarterbacks, it doesn’t make any sense to reach for a quarterback. Waiting until 2012 seems like the smart move. Yes, I did just say the word “Bills” and “smart move” in the same sentence. Rudolph gives them a much needed upgrade at tight end. Their leading receiver at tight end last year had 12 catches for 111 yards. That’s not good.

35. Cincinnati Bengals- QB Andy Dalton (TCU)

Carson Palmer’s not walking through that door. Some might argue that’s a good thing. Dalton is an excellent fit for their west coast offense under new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and the Bengals have predictably shown a lot of interest in him this offseason.

36. Denver Broncos- DT Marvin Austin (North Carolina)

Again building that defensive line, they need more than one upgrade at defensive tackle, where they have next to nothing currently. Getting Nick Fairley, Da’Quan Bowers, and Marvin Austin allows them to shore up their defensive line and still have a couple picks in the 3rd round to work with. Remember, they also have Tennessee’s 2nd rounder in 2012 and a trade chip in Kyle Orton. It’s fine if they don’t fill all their needs this offseason. This isn’t a one year rebuilding project, unless Tim Tebow becomes an elite quarterback in his 2nd season. This is going to be a long term thing, at least two years.

37. Cleveland Browns- DE Adrian Clayborn (Iowa)

They desperately need help on their new 4 man line. Their top 2 defensive ends going into next season are Matt Roth, who hasn’t played in a 4-3 as a pro, and Marcus Bernard, who is too small to play in the trenches. Besides, they only managed 29 sacks last season anyway so pass rushers were a need before they switched schemes. Concerns about Clayborn’s Erb Palsy could drop him into the 2nd round, but not very far into it given how in demand pass rushers are.

38. Arizona Cardinals- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)

Character problems drop Smith out of the first round, not his lack of talent. Smith is a top 15 talent at cornerback and the Cardinals get him here at 38. Not only does he fill a big need for a team that ranked 25th against the pass last year, but his size at 6-2 fits what they like in a cornerback. This would be a no brainer pick for them in this situation.

39. New England Patriots- OT Benjamin Ijalana (Villanova)

After moving down 6 spots, the Patriots take Benjamin Ijalana. Ijalana can play right tackle or left tackle for them and gives them a bookend opposite Sebastian Vollmer, wherever they decide to line him up. Matt Light is over 30 and wants a long term deal and I just don’t see him getting it. That’s not the Patriot way.

40. Dallas Cowboys- S Rahim Moore (UCLA)

Alan Ball struggled in his first year at free safety and it’s probably his last. He couldn’t cover and at 185 pounds he was too small to do anything too positive against the run either. They’ll look for replacements through the draft. 

41. Washington Redskins- WR Torrey Smith (Maryland)

The Redskins got their quarterback, Jake Locker, by trading down in the first. If history is any indication, this pick will be an offensive player and given their need at wide receiver, I think a wideout like Torrey Smith makes the most sense. Santana Moss is a free agent and wants to go to a contender, while Anthony Armstrong could be upgraded even if Moss were resigned.

42. Houston Texans- CB Brandon Harris (Miami)

They may have concerns about taking a corner in the first round for the 2nd straight year, but they’ll take one at some point. They ranked 31st against the pass and their 2010 #2 corner Glover Quin is likely going to be moving to free safety in 2011. 

43. Minnesota Vikings- OT Marcus Cannon (TCU)

Another team that took a quarterback in the first that will likely be looking offense in the 2nd to build around their franchise quarterback. Marcus Cannon can play right tackle for them if they chose to move Phil Loadholt to guard or Cannon could also play guard.

44. Detroit Lions- CB Aaron Williams (Texas)

BPA here also fills a major need as the Lions ranked 26th versus the pass despite 44 sacks. The Lions have shown a lot of interest in Aaron Williams, who could be anywhere from the 3rd to the 6th cornerback off the board this year.

45. San Francisco 49ers- 3-4 DE Christian Ballard (Iowa)

The 49ers passed on Nick Fairley for Robert Quinn at 7, but they take their 3-4 end here. Isaac Sopoaga has played significant snaps for them for 6 years at end and has never managed more than 1.5 sacks in a season. Ballard would be a big upgrade as a pass rusher.

46. Miami Dolphins- RB Mikel Leshoure (Illinois)

Instead of taking Mark Ingram at 15, they move around a little and get Colin Kaepernick and another talented running back in Mikel Leshoure. They also moved up in the 3rd round a little and had to give up their 4th round pick, but I think Dolphins fans would rather have this scenario than just taking Ingram, not filling their quarterback need at all, and keeping their 4th rounder.

47. St. Louis Rams- DT Stephen Paea (Oregon State)

I suspect Steve Spagnuolo is trying to coach up one of the late round ends he took last year to be James Hall’s future replacement, which is why I can’t see them using an early pick on a defensive end. Defensive tackle is a different story. They have nothing after the 34 year old Fred Robbins at defensive tackle and Spags love pass rushers, especially interior pass rushers.

48. Oakland Raiders- CB Ras-I Dowling (Virginia)

Ras-I Dowling ran a 4.37 at 6-1 197. In Al Davis’ mind, this makes him the 2nd greatest cornerback of all time, 2nd to Stanford Routt that is.

 

49. Jacksonville Jaguars- S Quinton Carter (Oklahoma State)

Adding a defensive end in the first is not going to be enough to upgrade their pass defense. They need actual upgrades in the secondary. Carter is a high character, hard working kid, who Jaguars GM Gene Smith will value higher than most teams.

50. San Diego Chargers- WR Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh)

I think Baldwin could be a potential surprise possibility at 18 in the first round for the Chargers, so I think they’d jump at the opportunity to get him here at 50. The long term futures of Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson are both up in the air and at 6-4 Baldwin has the size the Chargers love in a receiver. He has first round talent, but I could see him slipping as a result of work ethic and character issues.

51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DE Allen Bailey (Miami)

Another defensive end? Why not. They’ve managed just 54 sacks in the last 2 years combined so it’s clearly their biggest need. They went back to back with defensive tackles in the first 2 rounds last year when it was their biggest need and they also doubled up on wide receivers. They spent their first rounder on a right end in Justin Houston. Allen Bailey can be their left end.

52. New York Giants- MLB Martez Wilson (Illinois)

The Giants love taking best available and Wilson, the consensus top middle linebacker prospect in this class, represents that at this point in the draft. Linebacker is a major need of theirs as they have questions both inside and out. Wilson can play both inside and outside, but will likely be put at middle linebacker, their biggest need and his more natural position, first.

53. Indianapolis Colts- G Stefen Wisniewski (Penn State)

Another offensive line upgrade for the Colts. This pick just makes too much sense. He’s a perfect fit for their scheme and he fits what they look for in terms of character. He fills a major need and fits their trend of going offense early. Finally, he’s one of the best available here.

54. Washington Redskins- RLB Sam Acho (Texas)

Again, this team has so many needs that they can just take BPA at every pick, with a few exceptions. Here they take Acho to play opposite Brian Orakpo. Andre Carter is a free agent and he also struggled mightily in the 3-4 last year. Acho is a natural fit for the 3-4 and a capable replacement for Carter.

55. Kansas City Chiefs- WR Titus Young (Boise State)

No wide receiver other than Dwayne Bowe caught more than 22 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown last year. Wide receiver has to be their #1 offseason priority. They need to get Matt Cassel some better receivers if they want their big money investment to lead them deep into the playoffs ever. Young, who ran a 4.43 at The Combine and plays faster, is the perfect speed compliment to Dwayne Bowe, more of a possession receiver.

56. New Orleans Saints- RB Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech)

The Saints have a laundry list of questions at the running back position from can Pierre Thomas stay healthy to will Reggie Bush return to why the hell would they give Julius Jones and DeShawn Wynn key carries in a playoff game. Given those questions, Williams is way too talented to pass on at this point.

57. Seattle Seahawks- G Rodney Hudson (Florida State)

Rodney Hudson helps improve their horrendous run blocking. They didn’t run block well at all, with the exception of on that Marshawn Lynch run (that was really the only time all year they did anything right on the ground). Hudson fits the scheme like a glove and after taking Ryan Mallett in the first round, it makes a lot of sense that they’d go offense here.

58. Baltimore Ravens- WR Randall Cobb (Kentucky)

The Ravens brought in Donte Stallworth, Anquan Boldin, and TJ Houshmandzadeh last offseason to give Joe Flacco the weapons he needed to take this team to the Super Bowl in his 3rd season. However, those receivers all underachieved and, one might even argue, cost them the game against Pittsburgh in the playoffs. The problem was they brought in a bunch of old, veteran, possession receivers who couldn’t stretch the field to compliment Derrick Mason who is also an old, veteran, possession receiver who can’t stretch the field.

They need to add a young burner, like Pittsburgh has with Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, this offseason if they want Flacco to take that next step. That’s what Titus Young can do for them.

59. Atlanta Falcons- WR Jerrel Jernigan (Troy)

Roddy White is a great receiver with 371 catches in the last 4 years and 115 last year, but he’s not a burner, someone who can stretch the field. That’s what they need opposite him. They didn’t complete a pass longer than 46 yards last year and their lack of big play ability really hurt them in games against Philadelphia and Green Bay, two explosive offenses that can score in a hurry. They couldn’t keep up and lost both games by double digits.

If they want to make it to the Super Bowl, they’ll probably have to get through those 2 teams, and besides, of all the final 8 teams last year, their receiving corps are the thinnest. Jernigan and his 4.32 speed will be a huge asset to Matt Ryan and company.

60. New England Patriots- WR Leonard Hankerson (Miami)

If their loss to the Jets proves one thing, it’s that they miss Randy Moss. Well maybe not crazy Randy Moss who Tom Brady had to worry about getting the football. They got better after trading him away for a reason. Brady was free to throw to whoever he wanted and his favorite target was the open one. That doesn’t mean they don’t need a deep threat, especially one with size like Hankerson.

Hankerson had good size speed numbers at The Combine with a 4.45 at 6-2 209. He dominated The Senior Bowl, and should have been MVP as he was the reason Christian Ponder’s numbers looked good enough to win him MVP. He also was very productive at Miami last season with 72 catches for 1156 yards and 13 touchdowns running more pro style routes than normal, with inconsistencies at the quarterback position. He’s no one year wonder either as he produced in 2009 with 45 catches for 801 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s the real deal.

61. San Diego Chargers- RLB Jabaal Sheard (Pittsburgh)

The Chargers probably won’t draft a rush linebacker in the first round, not willing to admit their mistake with 2009 1st round pick Larry English who has not panned out. However, with 5 picks in the first 3 rounds, they’ll take one at some point.

62. Chicago Bears- CB Davon House (New Mexico State)

The NFL is a reactionary league as much as it is a copycat league. The Bears’ biggest rivals are the Green Bay Packers, who beat them in the NFC Championship to advance to the Super Bowl, which they ended up winning. Undoubtedly, they are going to be trying to build their team such that it can beat the Packers. Adding more depth at cornerback to counter the Packers’ depth at receiver is necessary to do that.

63. Pittsburgh Steelers- G Orlando Franklin (Miami)

The Steelers need depth up front, especially versatile depth that can play multiple positions. They need help at both guard and tackle and Franklin can play either position, though the general consensus seems to be that he’s better off at guard.

64. Green Bay Packers- G Danny Watkins (Baylor)

Danny Watkins showed at the Senior Bowl that he’s ready to play right now. He might be the best technician of any offensive lineman in this class. He’s that good. He’s also 26, which might scare some teams away. The Packers won’t mind as they’re built to win now. Watkins is an upgrade over Daryn Colledge, the weak link on their offensive line, who is also a free agent this offseason.

 

Go on to 3rd Round

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2011 Should Mock

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Updated 4/21/11 

This is not a mock draft update. This is my “should” mock draft. This is what I feel each pick should be, based off of my Big Board, my views on team needs, and my general draft strategy.

 

1. Carolina Panthers- WR AJ Green (Georgia)

Green is my #2 ranked prospect, but I put him here over Patrick Peterson because he fills a bigger need. Their offense scored 4.6 points per game fewer than any other team in the league. I’m not ready to give up on Jimmy Clausen. Plenty of players have struggled in their rookie year and rebounded, especially ones who had poor supporting casts like Clausen did as rookies. I liked Clausen out of college and I give him a true #1 receiver here who can help him out right away.

2. Denver Broncos- CB Patrick Peterson (LSU)

Peterson is my #1 overall prospect and fills a need for the Broncos here. Champ Bailey turns 33 this offseason, while Perrish Cox is facing rape charges. Besides, they ranked 30th against the pass last year.

3. Buffalo Bills- 3-4 DE Marcell Dareus (Alabama)

Nick Fairley, Julio Jones, and Robert Quinn are all ranked higher on my board than Dareus, but I like Dareus in a 3-4 more than Fairley, Jones doesn’t fill a bit need, and I worry about drafting Quinn with the 3rd pick as an end and converting him into a linebacker. That’s a risky proposition. Dareus will help their 32nd ranked run defense and add to a pass rush that managed a mere 27 sacks last year.

4. Cincinnati Bengals- DE Robert Quinn (North Carolina)

Fairley is ranked higher, but doesn’t fill a need. Quinn does as they can’t count on Antawn Odom, coming off of 2 straight season ending injuries, to stay healthy opposite Carlos Dunlap. Quinn goes before Julio Jones because of his higher positional value.

5. Arizona Cardinals- RLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)

Amukamara fills a need, but Miller has more positional value for a team that desperately needs pass rushers. Both Joey Porter and Clark Haggans are over 34 and there isn’t much behind either of them.

6. Cleveland Browns- DT Nick Fairley (Auburn)

Fairley gets off the board here and helps the Browns move to a 4 man line in the 4-3, one which they majorly lack personnel for.

7. San Francisco 49ers- CB Prince Amukamara (Nebraska)

Julio Jones is ranked higher, but Prince Amukamara fills a bigger need for the 49ers, who desperately need to cut the old, overpaid, and injury prone Nate Clements or work out a deal where he comes back at a reduced rate to play free safety.

8. Tennessee Titans- WR Julio Jones (Alabama)

Kenny Britt has character problems. Nate Washington is better in the slot. Randy Moss is done. Damian Williams is still developing. Julio Jones is easily best available at this slot.

9. Dallas Cowboys- 3-4 DE Cameron Jordan (California)

Jordan is best 9th ranked prospect and best available for the Cowboys, who pick 9th. Jordan fills a need as they need another 5 technique on their 3-4 defensive line.

10. Washington Redskins- RLB Justin Houston (Georgia)

Justin Houston is a 3 spot reach on my board, but he fits a 3-4 better than Ryan Kerrigan, as he played in a 3-4 in college. He fills a bigger need than Tyron Smith and he has more positional value than Brandon Harris.

11. Houston Texans- CB Brandon Harris (Miami)

Ryan Kerrigan is ranked higher and fills a need, but again, I worry about him in the 3-4 and using the 11th pick on a guy and trying to switch his position. I reach for my 13th ranked prospect Harris, over Tyron Smith who doesn’t fill a need. Harris will allow them to move Glover Quin to nickelback or free safety and help a secondary that ranked 31st against the pass last year.

12. Minnesota Vikings- OT Tyron Smith (USC)

Smith gets off the board here. He’ll be ready to start at left tackle for the Vikings right around the time that Bryant McKinnie will have to move to right tackle because of age. In the short term, he can move Phil Loadholt to right guard where he belongs.

13. Detroit Lions- OT Anthony Castonzo (Boston College)

Passing on Kerrigan again because of how important protecting Matt Stafford should be to this team. If you have a franchise quarterback, but he can’t stay healthy, you might as well not have a franchise quarterback. Castonzo is an upgrade over Jeff Backus who can move to either right tackle or guard.

14. St. Louis Rams- DE Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue)

Kerrigan gets off the board here and becomes James Hall’s future replacement. Hall had a good year last year, but he turns 34 this offseason so I doubt know how many more of those he has.

15. Miami Dolphins- QB Cam Newton (Auburn)

I have a late first round grade on Newton so I wouldn’t take him much before this, but quarterbacks are worth the reach even when it’s 10 or so spots down your board. I’ve seen enough of Chad Henne. He’s good enough for them to get by until Newton’s ready without getting laughed at, but he’s not a franchise quarterback.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars- DE Aldon Smith (Missouri)

Smith is a 2 spot reach over Akeem Ayers and JJ Watt, but he fills more of a need for this Jaguars team that only managed 26 sacks last year and can’t count on Aaron Kampman’s health in the future. 

 

17. New England Patriots- 3-4 DE JJ Watt (Wisconsin)

In real life, the Patriots wouldn’t take Watt because they refuse to deal with his agent Tom Condon. However, this isn’t real life. Watt is my best available and can be their future at defensive end opposite Ty Warren. Marcus Stroud and Gerard Warren are nothing more than stopgaps.

18. San Diego Chargers- RLB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)

Bowers doesn’t fit this scheme either. Ayers is 2nd best on my board and fills a need at rush linebacker where Larry English has clearly busted. The Chargers, in reality, won’t take a rush linebacker in the first and admit their mistake with English just yet, but again, this is not reality.

19. New York Giants- CB Jimmy Smith (Colorado)

Bowers doesn’t fill a need here and neither do Aldon Smith nor Jonathan Baldwin so I reach a bit and take Jimmy Smith, talented cornerback with character issues who can help shore up a Giants secondary that got absolutely torched by the Packers this year. If they want to make it back to the Super Bowl, they’re going to have to fix their secondary. They can’t count on Aaron Ross anymore.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- CB Ras-I Dowling (Virginia)

End would be the pick if there one even close to being worth this spot, given its high positional value and how big of a need it fills for the Buccaneers, who are averaging 27 sacks a season over the last 2 years. Instead they take Dowling. Aqib Talib is in serious trouble. Ronde Barber only has about a year left. Elbert Mack belongs at nickel. Myron Lewis is still developing and can also play safety.

21. Kansas City Chiefs- WR Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh)

Baldwin is my 18th ranked prospect and a good value at this point. He fills a huge need for a team that had absolutely nothing outside of Dwayne Bowe at receiver last year.

22. Indianapolis Colts- OT Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin)

Offensive tackle is a huge need for them as their poor play was a huge part of the reason why Peyton Manning had his worst season in years last year. Carimi is a natural right tackle, but can play left in a pinch and they really need both positions.

23. Philadelphia Eagles- OLB Greg Jones (Michigan State)

Ernie Sims is a free agent. Stewart Bradley can’t stay healthy. Jamar Chaney is still developing. Moise Fokuo just sucks. They need some new life at linebacker and Jones is a very versatile player.

24. New Orleans Saints- RB Mark Ingram (Alabama)

They can’t count on their current group of running backs to stay healthy and Ingram is a very good value at this point.

25. Seattle Seahawks- RB Mikel Leshoure (Illinois)

Aside from the Marshawn Lynch run against New Orleans, they didn’t do much right on the ground last year. A true 3 down back like Leshoure would change that.

26. Baltimore Ravens- MLB Martez Wilson (Illinois)

Other than an unnecessary running back to Mikel Leshoure, the top two prospect available are linebacker. Greg Jones is the higher ranked player, but Martez Wilson is the better fit for the 3-4.

27. Atlanta Falcons- WR Leonard Hankerson (Miami)

They need a receiver opposite Roddy White, especially one who can stretch the field like Hankerson can. Their longest completion last year was 46 yards. Hankerson is BPA ignoring Leshoure and Greg Jones who don’t fill needs and Adrian Clayborn, who fills a positional need, but doesn’t quite make sense here. Clayborn is not a great pass rusher, which is what they really need to pair with Kroy Biermann.

28. New England Patriots- OT Benjamin Ijalana (Villanova)

Matt Light is a free agent and at 33 in June his best days are behind him. Ijalana gives them a new bookend with Sebastian Vollmer for the future.

29. Chicago Bears- DT Stephen Paea (Oregon State)

Clayborn and Jones don’t make sense positionally, but Paea, my 31st ranked prospect, does. He can be a replacement for Tommie Harris, who struggled last year and was consequently cut.

30. New York Jets- 3-4 DE Cameron Heyward (Ohio State)

Brooks Reed was an option here, but defensive line is a bigger need for them and Heyward is still a solid value at this point.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers- G Marcus Cannon (TCU)

A mild reach for a huge need, Cannon can play inside or outside for this team next year, which is important because they have a lot of free agents up front. Brooks Reed, Ryan Williams, and Titus Young all are higher ranked on my board, but don’t fill needs.

32. Green Bay Packers- RLB Brooks Reed (Arizona)

A mild reach, but Titus Young, and Ryan Williams didn’t fill as big of needs as Brooks Reed, who hopefully could turn out to be what LaMarr Woodley is to James Harrison in Pittsburgh, as Clay Matthews’ pass rushing sidekick, who looks just like him. 

 

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2011 Week 7 Picks

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Spreads/Lines on betonline.com

Last week overall: 9-4

Last week ATS: 3-9-1 (-2210/-20 units)

Overall picks: 59-31 (.656)

Upset Picks: 1-3 (-115/-2 units)

ATS Picks: 41-45-4 (-1370/-6 units)

Survivor picks: 5-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI)

Upset picks: 9-15 (+145/-3 unit) 

Recap: I sucked last week. This is a weird year. Experts who are normally making money are losing money this year. I think it’s lockout related, along with the NFL’s bullshit rule changes (kickoff rule, 4 days no practice after a bye week). I’m not really sure what to do about it except hope it turns around for me. I’ve had some good weeks this year, including my best week ever week 3 when made about $2000. Unfortunately, I lost all of that last week. One change I have made is I’m using trends dating back to 2008 instead of 2002 when there’s enough data, so we’ll see if that works.

Also, I lost both of my 5 unit picks after being perfect in that department all season. The Colts were one of my 5 unit picks and they were trailing by 3 with the ball with about 2 minutes left as 7 point underdogs when Pierre Garcon stupidly decided to lateral the ball, which was recovered by Carlos Dunlap for the cover clinching score. That’s a $1050 swing there.

Miami was my other 5 unit pick as 7 point underdogs in New York. Darrelle Revis had a pick six in the red zone on what should have been pass interference. That’s a 10 point swing right there at least. Later, Brandon Marshall randomly fell out of bounds with an easy touchdown in front of him and then dropped another touchdown in the end zone as Miami had to settle for 3. That’s 14 points right there that the Dolphins should have had. They lost 24-6. They should have lost 24-20 and covered. That was an $1100 swing there for me. I would have had $2150 more if stupid shit didn’t happen. Sometimes I hate football.

Plus, it’s not like I got the games completely wrong. I was 9-4 straight up after all. Let’s try to earn that money back. Here we go.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -1 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

This is the NFL’s annual stupid London game where they force two teams to fly to another country where they don’t even like football to play in some shitty stadium. This is technically a home game for Tampa Bay, but they’re obviously not at home, which makes it even more stupid. Tampa Bay essentially will be playing 7 home games and 9 road games this year, which, I guess since no one ever goes to Buccaneers’ home games, shouldn’t affect them that much.

I feel like Tampa Bay is the right side here. Aside from that fluke loss in San Francisco, this has been a good team for the past roughly year, since a 38-13 loss to New Orleans week 6 of 2010. They’re 11-6 in that stretch and have only lost by more than a touchdown once (San Francisco). More importantly, they know how to finish games. I like betting against Jay Cutler, who has a fairly poor career ATS record (27-47 ATS), and I like betting against him against a team that knows how to finish games, especially when it’s a pretty even line. Also, Tampa Bay has played in England before for what that’s worth. There are no trends to back me up here and I think this could be a close game, so this is only a 1 unit pick.

Carolina Panthers 23 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5 (-110) 1 unit (+100)

Cam Newton is 4-1-1 ATS on the season and thus his career, but this is only his 2nd game as a favorite. He won his first game as a favorite over Jacksonville, bucking Carolina’s 18-28 ATS record since 2002 as a home favorite of 3+. Can he do it again here? Well, he’s got some trends to work against. Since 2010, teams in the 1st of 2 home games are 46-64 ATS. Teams in the 1st of 2 home games as favorites are 19-35 ATS. Carolina has the lowly Vikings coming to town next week, where they will almost definitely be favorites.

Also, both of these teams are coming off of divisional losses as dogs. Since 2008, there have been 18 matchups of 2 teams both coming off a loss divisional loss as dogs. The underdog has covered in 11 of those 18, 9 of 14 since 2009. However, Washington looked terrible last week. Rex Grossman, who had gotten worse in every game to that point, threw 4 picks and was rightfully benched for John Beck. I’m not sure how much of an upgrade John Beck will actually be. This line isn’t higher than 3 so we still have protection against Carolina winning by a field goal. I’m taking the favorite for 1 unit.

Cleveland Browns 20 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against spread: Cleveland -3 (+100) 1 unit (+0)

The trends go in Seattle’s favor. Cleveland is a favorite coming off of a loss as an underdog before being an underdog (they go to San Francisco next week). Teams in that situation are 42-66 ATS since 2008. It’s called a sandwich game. Teams are also 7-14 ATS when all 3 of the games in the sandwich are non-divisional. The Browns are also a mere 3-7 ATS as favorite since 2008. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rode a win as double digit underdogs against New York into a bye. Since 1989, only 6 teams have won as dogs of 10+ before a bye (6-40 straight up). Of those 6 teams, 5 covered after the bye.

However, I’m not ready to bet Seattle on the road yet. They looked good there in New York before the bye, but they’re a pitiful 8-20 ATS on the road since 2008. We still get field goal protection with Cleveland, meaning if Seattle can keep this within a field goal, I don’t lose. Given that, I’m taking the favorite for 1 unit.

Detroit Lions 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against spread: Detroit -3.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)

Detroit is perfect no longer after San Francisco came into Detroit and beat them. Detroit lost last week as favorites and some coaches are really good after losing as a favorite. Jim Schwartz? Well, we’ll call it inconclusive. He’s 0-1 ATS after a loss as a favorite. The Lions don’t have a lot of experience losing as favorites in recent years.

However, I still like Detroit to bounce back here. Atlanta is 1-2 on the road this year, with that one win coming by 2 in Seattle. They also haven’t won back to back games all year. I also think this line is wrong. Detroit is only .5 points better than Atlanta? Huh? Detroit may have lost last week, but they’re still 5-1. Meanwhile, before the Falcons blew out the lowly Panthers, could have easily been 1-4 with that one win coming by 2 over Seattle had Michael Vick not gotten hurt when Philly came to Atlanta. There’s no huge trends here, but I think Detroit is the right side for 2 units.

 

Denver Broncos 23 Miami Dolphins 12 Upset Pick (+115)

Pick against spread: Denver +1 (-105) 5 units (+500)

The Dolphins absolutely suck. All the angles said the Jets would come out flat last week and they did. The Dolphins still lost by 18. Their defense can’t get any pressure, their defensive backs can’t cover, and their receivers can’t catch anything, assuming quarterback Matt Moore even throws the ball accurately. But other than that, they’re pretty good.

Obviously, I love the idea of getting them as favorites. This line suggests that Denver is only 2 points better than Miami. I find that ridiculous, especially with how much better Denver looked against San Diego after they put in Tim Tebow. Tebow will start here.

The Broncos are also coming off a bye which should help them. Teams coming off of a bye last week were 1-5 straight up, but that’s a little misleading. All 5 of the teams that lost were underdogs, while the one win (Baltimore over Houston), was as a favorite. The five losses were Dallas at New England, Washington at Philadelphia, Miami at New York, Cleveland at Oakland, and St. Louis at Green Bay. Seems like in all 5 of those cases, the better team won. I think Denver is the better team here.

Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins to be flat this week. Teams are 26-44 ATS since 2002 after a MNF loss of 14+, 8-24 ATS as favorites the next week. The Dolphins are also in a sandwich game situation. They’re favorites here before being dogs (@ NY Giants next week) and after losing as dogs. Teams are 42-66 ATS in this situation since 2008, 16-26 ATS after a divisional loss. Here’s an interesting trend. Since 2002, teams are 2-10 ATS as favorites after losing straight up by 14+ on MNF as dogs, before being dogs the next week.

Finally, I love betting against the Dolphins at home. They’re 1-9 straight up in their last 10 home games and 7-20 ATS at home since Tony Sparano took over in 2008, 1-11 ATS as home favorites. They’re actually a whopping 3-13 ATS as favorites in general in the Tony Sparano era. Besides, this team has quit. I love being able to bet against them as favorites. Give me 5 units on Tebow and company.

San Diego Chargers 23 New York Jets 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -1 (-120) 1 unit (-120)

This was a tough one. The Jets should be riding an emotional high after last week. Teams that a win a divisional MNF game by 14+ are 22-10 ATS in the next week since 2002, but it’s hard to say they looked good on Monday Night. The Dolphins just looked terrible and the Jets didn’t even surpass 300 yards of offense after failing to do the same the week before against New England’s miserable defense. It took them until their 5th drive to even get a first down.

Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is 11-6 ATS in his career as an underdog, but 10-4 ATS as an underdog against anyone other than Tom Brady. He’s not an underdog here, but he’s close to being one as mere 1 point favorites. For the record, Rivers is 2-1 ATS in his career as favorites of 3 or less. However, the Chargers could still be in early season form. They’ve had trouble with Kansas City, Minnesota, Denver, hell even Miami. Taking the early season Chargers as favorites traveling 3 time zones (even though this isn’t a 1 PM start) against a Jets team that could be on an emotional high is scary, but I feel like San Diego is the right side. I’m taking them, but only for 1 unit.

Houston Texans 27 Tennessee Titans 20 Upset Pick (+160)

Pick against spread: Houston +3 (+100) 3 units (+300)

Houston hasn’t looked great in the past 2 weeks, losing to Oakland and Baltimore without Andre Johnson. They’ve also lost Mario Williams on defense for the season, so they’re hardly at 100%. Andre Johnson is not expected back for this game. However, I still like Houston here. I think Tennessee is incredibly overrated. They beat Baltimore week 2 when Baltimore was flat off a huge win against Pittsburgh. Then they beat the lowly Broncos and the lowly Browns and the Steelers put them in their place week 5, destroying them 38-17. This line suggests that Houston and Tennessee are equal. That’s wrong.

On top of that, the Texans are 31-16 ATS all-time after two straight losses. Also, Tennessee is in their first 2 of home games, a situation teams are 46-64 ATS in since 2010. They’re also likely in their first of two home games as favorites, with Indy coming to town next week. Teams in that situation are 19-35 ATS since 2010.

Meanwhile, the Texans are in their 2nd straight road game, a situation teams are 142-104 ATS in since 2008. Teams are 69-42 ATS in their 2nd straight road game as a dog, 46-27 ATS in their 2nd straight road game as a dog after losing as a dog in the first. Gary Kubiak is 6-2 ATS in his straight road game as a dog after a loss. In general, since Kubiak took over in 2006, the Texans are 10-4 ATS in their 2nd straight road game. I’m worried about betting on a banged up team which is why this is not a 4 or 5 unit bet, but I do really like Houston in this situation.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick (+160)

Pick against spread: Arizona +3.5 (-115) 4 units (-460)

All the Steelers have to do is win by 4? Easy money! Right? Not so fast. Remember, the Cardinals have several former Pittsburgh assistants on their staff. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is a former Steelers offensive coordinator. Russ Grimm, the Cardinals’ offensive line coach, held the same position with the Steelers. Also, Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton is a former Steelers’ defensive backs coach. They’ll definitely have the inside track as far as preparation goes here.

On top of that, they’ll be more focused than the Steelers. The Cardinals are coming out of a bye, looking to end a long losing streak, a situation teams do well in. Meanwhile, the Steelers play the Patriots next week, looking for big revenge. Favorites before being dogs are 59-73 ATS in 2010, but a mere 10-20 ATS as road favorites, and 6-10 ATS as road favorites after being favorites the week before. Besides, the Steelers have shown struggles against weaker opponents this year. They barely beat Indianapolis and then they took their foot off the gas against Jacksonville last week after getting a big lead early, hanging on to win 17-13.

On top of this, the Steelers struggle on the road as favorites in the Mike Tomlin era. As favorites of 3+ on the road, they’re 7-13 ATS since Tomlin took over in 2007. Conversely, the Cardinals play well as home dogs in the Ken Whisenhunt era, 10-4 ATS in this situation. Finally, I like the line movement here. The line opened at -4, then went to -3.5, then went to -3.5 with extra juice and this is in spite of the fact that the public is betting the Steelers. Vegas wants people to bet on the Steelers.

Oakland Raiders 20 Kansas City Chiefs 14

Pick against spread: Oakland -3.5 (-115) 1 unit (-115)

Jason Campbell is done for the season, but the Raiders have acquired Carson Palmer, who is at least no worse than Campbell. However, there’s a lot of conflicting angles in this game. The Chiefs are in their 2nd straight road game, a situation that normally is lucrative to bet on. However, they’ve had a bye in between. This isn’t a problem as teams in their 2nd straight road game with a bye in between are 7-3 ATS since 2008. The Chiefs are also 22-15 ATS as road dogs since 2006, the same stretch of time in which the Raiders are 2-10 ATS as favorites. Finally, the Raiders are a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against Kansas City.

However, a weird and specific trend, teams in the 2nd or 3 road games with a bye week in between the 2nd and 3rd are 15-6 ATS since 2002. Oakland is in this situation. Plus, Oakland is on 7 game divisional winning streak. Finally, this line hasn’t moved from -3.5 since Palmer has been acquired so we’re getting excellent line value. I’m making this a one unit pick in favor of the Raiders because I don’t want to bet heavily on a team who just woke their starting quarterback up from retirement, especially since Palmer won’t have even been with the organization for a week. Also, Kansas City does have trends in their favor. I just like the line value is too good to pass on.

Dallas Cowboys 24 St. Louis Rams 23

Pick against spread: St. Louis +13 (-105) 6 units (-630)

Good news and bad news for the Rams here. The good news is they traded for Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd was the league’s leading receiver in 2010 under Head Coach Josh McDaniels, who happens to be the offensive coordinator in St. Louis now. The bad news is that the guy who was supposed to throw Lloyd the ball, Sam Bradford, is expected out with a high ankle sprain. It’s not confirmed that Bradford will be out, but it seems very unlikely he’ll play. Vegas hasn’t even bothered taking this line down, instead letting it jump from 10 to 13 to make up for Bradford’s absence.

I loved this St. Louis +10 before the Bradford injury. Dallas is going to be in a flat spot. This is a sandwich game. They played New England last week and then travel to Philadelphia next week. They’re going to have a very hard time getting up for the lowly 0-5 Rams. Favorites coming off of a loss as underdogs, before being underdogs are 42-66 ATS since 2008, 14-26 ATS before being divisional underdogs. Also, since 2002, favorites of 10+ are just 11-19 before being divisional underdogs. Dallas will be an underdog in Philadelphia next week.

Speaking of the 0-5 Rams, teams that are 0-5 or worse are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 instances as double digit underdogs. They’re also in their 2nd straight road game. Teams in their 2nd straight road game are 142-104 ATS since 2008, 75-54 ATS after a loss, 69-42 ATS in their 2nd straight road game as a dog, 46-27 ATS after losing in the first game as a dog, and a whopping 15-5 ATS in their 2nd straight game as road dogs.

Meanwhile, on Dallas’ side, Tony Romo is just 5-9 ATS in his career as double digit favorites. Also, and I find this remarkable, the Cowboys last 11 games have been decided by 4 points or less. Look it up if you don’t believe me. I purposely ignored this last week against New England because New England was a 7+ point favorites and 7+ point favorites are very, very good before a bye. Dallas covered anyway as New England won by just 4. Given that, expecting Dallas to cover a double digit line is ridiculous.

Now, of course, Sam Bradford is out. This might surprise you, but that doesn’t change my pick. All of those powerful trends I mentioned above are still in play and the line has shifted 3 points to compensate for Bradford’s loss. If anything, St. Louis will be even more motivated to win here, to rally around their backup quarterback and try to win their first game, while Dallas will overlook the lowly Rams even more in this sandwich game situation.

Besides, AJ Feeley, the Rams backup quarterback, is one of the better backups in the league in my opinion. Also remember, he’ll have Brandon Lloyd to work with and I think this helps their team tremendously. They had absolutely nothing at receiver before trading for him and now they get a receiver who lead the league in receiving the last time he was in Josh McDaniels’ system. Oh, and on top of this, there’s always a chance Bradford plays. Even if he doesn’t, St. Louis is my pick of the week this week.

Update: Sam Bradford is going to play this week, per Adam Schefter. This line is still at +13 (-105) for St. Louis. It won’t stay this way for long, but anyone who read what I wrote above will understand why I’m bumping this up to a 6 unit pick. I love St. Louis (+13) with Bradford starting. They won’t be miserable offensively anymore with the addition of Brandon Lloyd and they’ll be extra motivated to win this week against a Dallas team that is in a sandwich game situation and hasn’t played a game decided by more than 4 in 11 games. 6 units picks are rarities for me. I made 3 next year and I hit all of them. I’m so confident I can make this 4 for 4 that I’m putting 6 here. If the line drops back to +10-+11, 5 units is the right amount, but as long as you can get this +13, do it and do it big. 

Green Bay Packers 38 Minnesota Vikings 14

Pick against spread: Green Bay -9 (+105) 3 units (-300)

I’m betting Aaron Rodgers here and not thinking twice about it. He’s too good. The Packers are 29-14 ATS since 2009, including 5-1 ATS this year. They’ve covered in back-to-back weeks when the trends were heavily against them and this week the trends favor them. They’re favorites of 7+ heading into a bye. Teams in this situation are 42-16 ATS since 2002, albeit only 8-6 ATS on the road like the Packers are, but 4-0 ATS on the road in a divisional game.

Besides, the Packers are awesome on the road ever since Mike McCarthy took over in 2006. Since then, they’re a whopping 31-16 ATS on the road. Plus, the Packers are just too good. The Vikings looked absolutely terrible last week against a Bears team that should have been flat in a sandwich game. The Packers should have no trouble winning here by multiple scores.

New Orleans Saints 30 Indianapolis Colts 21 Survivor Pick (5-1 NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI)

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +14 (-110) 4 units (-440)

The Colts were my pick of the week last week. They were 7 point underdogs and trailed by only 3 with the ball late. However, Pierre Garcon decided stupidly to lateral the ball unnecessarily with 2 minutes left and Carlos Dunlap returned the ball for a cover winning touchdown. Sometimes I hate football. However, discounting last week’s bullshit 10 point loss, this team hasn’t lost by more than 7 since week 1, hanging with the likes of Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh in that stretch. However, Vegas still has them 14 point dogs here against New Orleans.

On top of this, the Saints don’t play well as big favorites. Since Sean Payton took over in 2006, they’re a mere 3-9 ATS when favored by more than 10. Going to league wide, favorites of 10+ are 21-33 ATS since 2010 after a loss as a favorite (8-14 ATS when that loss was a divisional loss). The Saints don’t rebound particularly well after losing as a favorite. They’re only 8-8 ATS in the Sean Payton era after a loss as a favorite, 2-4 ATS after a loss as a divisional favorite. I think they’re going to have a hard time getting up for the lowly Colts this week, especially since Head Coach Sean Payton is injured and needs surgery, which will obviously cut into his time to game plan for the lowly Colts.

Meanwhile, the Colts are desperate for a win. They’re 0-6 right now and I don’t buy any of this “Suck for Luck” stuff. The ownership and general manager might be secretly hoping they lose so they can get Andrew Luck, but the players have their own futures to worry about, as well as their own dignity. This is a proud veteran team that hasn’t lost more than 6 games in a season since 2002 and now they have 6 losses in 6 games. They’re going to give their all. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 9-1 ATS as double digit road dogs in the last 10 instances. Teams in that situation are undervalued by Vegas, overlooked by the opponent, and especially hungry to win. Finally, Curtis Painter is getting better every week for the Colts. I think he’s good enough this week to keep it within 2 scores.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Pick against spread: Baltimore -7.5 (-110) 3 units

Fun fact, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the worst team ATS since 2008. They’re 19-34 ATS in that stretch. I bet you wouldn’t guess, but Baltimore is the 2nd best ATS team in that stretch behind the Packers. They’re 36-24 ATS since 2008, since John Harbaugh took over and Joe Flacco was made their starting quarterback. There aren’t any huge situation trends in play here, so that’ll have to do.

Besides, common sense says Jacksonville just sucks. They have the 2nd worst scoring offense in the league behind St. Louis, who has played 1 fewer game than they have. They have scored 20 or fewer in their last 8 games and they are 1-8 in their last 9 games dating back to last season, when they were somehow 8-5 and leading the division.

Quarterback Blaine Gabbert is clearly not ready to be on the field. He’s completed just 48.8% of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per attempt. They’re going to have a very hard time scoring more than 14 here as they’ve only done that once this year and they haven’t quite faced a defense like Baltimore’s. Baltimore can cover this spread with 21 points. I don’t think they have any problem doing that.

Teaser: Baltimore -1.5, Green Bay -3 3 units

How does this not hit? 

Hedge: Jacksonville +450 (1 unit)

One half of the teaser has hit. I thought about leaving it be, but I’ve been screwed over so much I want to definitely make some money. If Baltimore wins by 2 or more, I win $300 and lose $100, so $200. If Jacksonville wins, I win $450 and lose $300 so I win $150. If Baltimore wins by 1 or ties, I lose $400 and throw my computer out the window.

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): St. Louis +12, Denver +1.5, Indianapolis +14, Arizona +3.5, Packers -9 (15-15 on the season). 

 

 

26-50

stevenlourie Uncategorized

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
30-40 Career practice squader 
20-30 No NFL future 
0-20 No football future 

 

Back to 1-25 

 

26. MLB Martez Wilson (Illinois) 83

27. WR Leonard Hankerson (Miami) 82

28. OT/G Benjamin Ilajana (Villanova) 81

29. DT/NT Stephen Paea (Oregon State) 81

30. WR Titus Young (Boise State) 81

31. RB Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech) 81

32. DE/RLB Brooks Reed (Arizona) 80

33. 3-4 DE/DT/DE Cameron Heyward (Ohio State) 80

34. G/OT Marcus Cannon (TCU) 80

35. DT Drake Nevis (LSU) 80

36. DT/3-4 DE Marvin Austin (North Carolina) 79

37. S Rahim Moore (UCLA) 79

38. OT Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State) 79

39. TE Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame) 79

40. CB Curtis Brown (Texas) 79

41. OT Nate Solder (Colorado) 79

42. MLB Casey Matthews (Oregon) 78

43. G/C Mike Pouncey (Florida) 78

44. 3-4 DE/DE Adrian Clayborn (Iowa) 78

45. 3-4 DE/DT Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple) 78

46. QB Blaine Gabbert (Missouri) 78

47. CB Brandon Burton (Utah) 78

48. NT Jerrell Powe (Mississippi) 78

49. CB/S Aaron Williams (Texas) 77

50. RB Daniel Thomas (Kansas State) 77

 

Go to 51-75

 

AFC East 2011

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

New England Patriots

At this time last year, some were talking about the Patriots as a potential 9-7 or 8-8 team that would miss the playoffs. The Jets were the talk of the division and some were even speculating the Dolphins were better than the Patriots. Their defense was inexperienced and their key offensive players were… (read more)

Prediction: 17-2 1st in AFC East, Win Super Bowl 

New York Jets

This offseason could have gone in two completely different directions for the Jets. It could have gone very badly. David Harris, Shaun Ellis, Brodney Pool, Antonio Cromartie, Braylon Edwards, Brad Smith, and Santonio Holmes were all free agents heading into this offseason. That’s 4 defensive starters and their… (read more)

Prediction: 11-7 2nd in AFC East, lose in AFC Semis

Buffalo Bills

The last time the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs, Bill Clinton was still president (1999). The main reason for that is inconsistent (or consistently bad) quarterback play. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick that quarterback to get them back to the playoffs? I doubt it. Chan Gailey’s offense has always inflated quarterbacks’ stats… (read more)

Prediction: 7-9 3rd in AFC East

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had an opportunity to contend for a playoff spot. All they had to do was send a 3rd rounder to Denver for Kyle Orton. Orton isn’t a great quarterback or anything, but this team has a good defense and they fixed the running game and offensive line in the offseason so all he’d have to do is not turn the ball over… (read more)

Prediction: 5-11 4th in AFC East

 

Anthony Adams Bears

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

At 31, Adams is not what he used to be and he’s coming off a down year, but the Bears got him so cheap in this resigning, 4.5 million over 2 years with 1.5 million guaranteed, that they almost had to do it. They’ve lost Tommie Harris this offseason and couldn’t afford to lose their only other proven defensive tackle, Adams, even with rookie Stephen Paea coming in.

Grade: A

 

August 25th Update

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

 

QB Peyton Manning DOWN

Peyton Manning is not expected to be ready for week 1 according to higher ups in the Indianapolis organization. The Colts have signed Kerry Collins as insurance. The last time Peyton Manning missed the preseason was 2008. It took him 7 games to get right. In those 7 games, the Colts went 3-4 and Peyton Manning was 162-265 (61.1%) for 1754 yards (6.6 YPA) 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

Let’s say Manning misses one game, and then in his next 7 has numbers similar or slightly worse than what he had in 7 games in 2008 (remember, this is a more serious injury and he’s 3 years old) and then in the 2nd half he has vintage Peyton Manning numbers only cut in half (180-270 for 2100 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions), that gives him this fantasy line for the season: 3854 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.

That gives him 226 fantasy points. That puts him right around what Eli Manning had in 2010 (221). Eli Manning finished 10th in quarterback fantasy points. I don’t think that’s a completely unreasonable projection for Peyton this season. I really don’t. He has a great supporting cast on offense so I’m projecting him slightly higher than that, but not much. Stay away from this guy. He’s going to get over drafted in your league.

WR Reggie Wayne DOWN

If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Reggie Wayne’s fantasy value.

 

WR Austin Collie DOWN

If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Austin Collie’s fantasy value.

TE Dallas Clark DOWN

If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Dallas Clark’s fantasy value. I think Clark will be hurt the most. Reggie Wayne still had very good numbers in the first half of 2008, though he is older now. Austin Collie is very, very talented player. Clark, however, had just 31 catches for 396 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first half in 2008 and that was without having Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stealing targets.

RB Joseph Addai DOWN

The last time Peyton Manning was injured, Joseph Addai scored just 7 times. This injury looks to be even more serious. Addai won’t have as much running room as he’s used to either. Addai could carry the ball more with Manning out or struggling, but he’s not a very talented back. He has fantasy value because he’s the goal line back in what was supposed to be an explosive offense. If it’s not, Addai’s value drops. He’s also still a major injury risk.