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Bears 2010 Recap

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I consistently ranked the Bears lower than their record suggested in my Power Rankings and I never bet heavily for one reason. I never trusted them. I never trusted them to win 3 or 4 games in a row to win a Super Bowl and I never trusted them enough on a weekly basis to bet heavily on them, especially as favorites. My reasoning was their lack of consistency.

They had some great performances this year. Don’t get me wrong. However, there was that 9 sack game against New York, that 4 pick game against Washington, their home loss to Seattle, their 36-7 loss to New England, their season finale against Green Bay where they only scored 3 points, I just didn’t trust them. I expected them at some point, at any point, to just bomb and have a terrible game. Turns out I was right as they did so in the NFC Championship game, only it was worse than I could have imagined.

They got down early 14-0 against Green Bay. Jay Cutler was 6-14 for 80 yards and a pick. However, he got “hurt.” He came out with a knee injury despite being able to walk around on the sideline. He was later spotted walking up stairs at dinner with his incredibly hot girlfriend Kristin Cavallari and thus it became “kneegate.” It was revealed he had a minor MCL tear the next day, but former and current NFL players still bashed his decision to sit because it was the NFC Championship. As Deion Sanders said, “you would have had to carry me out on a stretcher.”

I am in no position to question Cutler’s toughness, but fellow NFL players are. They played through injury before. They’ve played in Conference Championship games before. They’ve played in and won Super Bowls before. Yes, his teammates said all the right things after the game, but when do teammates ever not say all the right things after a game. Lovie Smith said it was his decision to bench Cutler, but even if that is true, it speaks volumes about Cutler that Lovie Smith would bench him for Todd freakin Collins if he wasn’t badly hurt. Besides, you can always fight to stay in the game.

I’ve never liked Cutler. I’ve  never liked his body language. I’ve never liked his attitude (John Elway and John Lynch, two Hall of Famers, have antecodes about his inability to listen during his time in Denver). I’ve never liked that he hasn’t won on any level. I’ve never liked how many picks he throws.

The Bears look like they will stand behind him, but I’d trade him and get a veteran and picks (Donovan McNabb and 2 future picks?), draft a mid round backup to groom behind him and keep the promising Caleb Hanie as 3rd quarterback. This is a talented team, with a good defense and experienced coaches, but, as has been the case for 20+ years, they appear to be a quarterback short of a Super Bowl.

 

Benjamin Ilajana Scout

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Offensive Tackle/Guard

Villanova

6-4 313

Draft board overall prospect rank: #29

Draft board overall offensive tackle rank: #4

Overall rating: 81 (early 2nd)

40 time: 5.25

4/17/11: Ijalana had a great Pro Day and could sneak into the first round. He reminds me so much of Rodger Saffold. 

3/29/11: Last year, Rodger Saffold went from large unheralded prospect to early 2nd round pick (33th overall, first pick in the 2nd round) and now he appears to be entrenched as the Rams left tackle of the future, even keeping 2009 #2 overall pick Jason Smith at right tackle. I’m not saying Ilajana will be that good right away, but they have similar stories, similar measurable, and similar games, so you never know.

Ijalana dominated as a left tackle for small school Villanova. Everyone seems to want to move him to guard, where he can certainly play, but remember, everyone wanted to move Saffold to guard. Everyone except the Rams. Ilajana is a shade under 6-4 so he doesn’t have the ideal height at tackle, but with 36 inch arms, he deserves a shot. He has experience physically and technically dominating competition, albeit weaker competition. He at least deserves a shot on the right side in the NFL, where Saffold was originally projected.

NFL Comparison: Rodger Saffold

 

 

Boise State/Toledo

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Spotlight #1: Boise State QB Kellen Moore

Spotlight #2: Boise State DE Shea McClellin 

14:29: Inaccurate short throw by Moore.

13:43: Moore gets the pass off in time against the rush, but it’s dropped by the receiver. As with the first throw, it’s not a great spiral, but this one should have been caught.

13:27: McClellin lines up at linebacker on the audible. He drops into coverage, but isn’t tested. Coverage skills will be important for him at 255ish pounds.

11:22: Moore pressured, throws screen play complete off his bad foot.

10:04: Moore throws off his back foot again, short pass sails high, running back Doug Martin has to make a nice leaping catch on the run for the completion and the first.

9:04: Kellen Moore with a nice running pass on a play action rollout for a 7 yard completion.

8:00: Moore takes a snap from under center. He’s taken a few of those, always a positive for a college quarterback.

6:56: Moore with a passing touchdown for 26 yards. His passing motion doesn’t look fluid though, though that may be because he’s a 6 foot tall lefty.

4:35: Not McClellin, but an excellent pass rush for the sack by Tyrone Crawford. The 6-4 276 Crawford had 7.5 sacks last year and now has 2.5 on this season with an excellent play there.

4:10: Moore’s pass batted down by a pass rusher at the line of scrimmage. That’s the problem with being just 6 feet tall.

4:03: Accurate short throw over the middle by Moore.

2:49: Smart move by Moore to indentify the blitz and find the open man on a screen and Doug Martin is able to score it for 71 yards on a phenomenal run. He’ll be spotlighted on a later date, but I’m very impressed with this kid so far tonight. Nice poise by Moore as well.

0:33: McClellin pass rushes from a 2 point stance and gets completely man handled.

2nd quarter

13:46: Moore finds a wide open man for a first down.

13:18: Limp pass completed for a first down by Moore.

7:48: McClellin hasn’t had much of an impact as a pass rusher at all, but he’s starting in a two point stance and dropping into coverage frequently. He looks fluid.

6:45: Quick pass, one read, and a first down throw by Kellen Moore.

5:33: Moore with another smooth play action and a completion. He’s extremely cool and calm in the pocket and has great decision making.

3:20: Another batted ball at the line of scrimmage against Moore. This is going to happen to him all the time at the NFL level because of his height and his delivery point. This might be a deal breaker with him.

0:17: Moore throws the jump ball to a big receiver for a goal line touchdown.

 

3rd quarter

13:16: Very wobbly throw by Kellen Moore.

8:46: Toledo tries the same type of screen play they scored a touchdown earlier on. McClellin was not fooled. He batted the ball up in the air for an interception. A very athletic, fluid, instinctive play.

6:30: Another touchdown for Kellen Moore, another unnecessary back foot throw. This stuff isn’t going to work at the next level.

3:09: Another quick throw for Moore, another completion and another first down on a short throw. He’ll need to be able to do something other than check down at the next level.

1:52: Moore makes a bad decision and it’s returned almost for a pick six. With how wobbly some of his throws are, he leaves no room for error. He can’t consistently throw into coverage like that without getting consistently picked off. That only works when someone’s wide open.

0:00: Moore has been checking down a lot and Doug Martin has made him look very good.

4th quarter

13:27: Moore’s first really impressive throw of the night. It had good velocity and he threw a guy open deep. This is the type of thing he needs to do more of, high velocity throws and throwing guys open.

10:25: Shea McClellin with a tackle for loss.

5:58: Another nice throw. This one goes for a touchdown, his 5th of the night.

0:00: I think I’ve seen all I need to see of Kellen Moore. This was, by all indications, one of his best games in college. He was playing a weak defense and threw for 455 yards and 5 scores. And I still wasn’t impressed. He threw a lot of screens and didn’t throw downfield often. Running back Doug Martin caught 5 passes for 122 yards, all on screens, making Moore look a lot better than his stats would say. More on Martin later.

Moore has the terrible combination of a small frame and a low release point. Drew Brees and Michael Vick have made it in the NFL at 6 foot tall, but they’re exceptions not the rule and neither of them have the low release point Moore has. Making it in the NFL is going to be borderline impossible for someone like that because defensive linemen can way too easily bat the passes down at the line. It’s a shame because Moore is one of the smartest and most accurate college quarterbacks of the decade.

He also lacks a big NFL arm. He’ll have to throw downfield at the NFL level. It’s going to be necessary. However, his deep balls come out very wobbly. That fine if someone is wide open, but very rarely will someone be wide open deep in the NFL. Throwing that type of deep ball into any kind of coverage is going to lead to picks. He also throws off his back foot unnecessarily and doesn’t have the most fluid delivery. He doesn’t throw the ball with a lot of velocity and height and he doesn’t throw a lot of guys open.

If he has any chance in the NFL, it’s in a West Coast offense where he can make quick decisions, get the ball out early, before the pass rush can get to him and try to knock the ball down, and not have to make a lot of deep throws. Still, it’s a long shot. I’m probably not going to have anything higher than a 5th round grade on him when it’s all said and done and that’s just on the slight chance he falls into the right scheme or is able to develop the ability to put more velocity and height on his passes.

As for his running back Doug Martin, I was very impressed with him, specifically as a pass catcher. He caught 5 passes for 122 yards. He didn’t have a great day on the ground with 60 yards on 19 carries, but he breaks a lot of tackles and is a ferocious bowling ball of a runner. He rushed for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns on 201 carries in 2010 and also caught 28 passes. Unless he continues to struggle on the ground, he looks like a 3rd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.

As for the other spotlight, Shea McClellin. McClellin had a few nice plays, a tackle for a loss and a batted ball that got intercepted, but he didn’t come close to having the type of 2.5 sack performance he had in the opener. He’s got a nice motor, however, and I’m not knocking him too far down as a pass rusher after one game because he has a track record. It was nice for me to see his ability to drop into coverage and rush the passer from a two point stance. He’s only about 255, 257 pounds so he’s probably a 3-4 rush linebacker at the next level. He’s looks nimble and athletic and able to do the type of things he’ll have to do as a rush linebacker. He’s probably an early day 3 pick at this point, but it’s a long season. He’s definitely a candidate to be a senior year riser.

 

Brooks Reed Scout

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Defensive End/Rush Linebacker

Arizona

6-3 263

Draft board overall prospect rank: #34

Draft board overall defensive end rank: #7

Overall rating: 80 (early 2nd)

40 time: 4.66

3/15/11: Everyone’s looking for the next everything. NBA fans have been looking for the next Michael Jordan for over a decade. NHL fans have been looking for Gretsky’s heir, MLB fans someone who is the next Nolan Ryan. This offseason, it seems everyone’s trying to find the next Clay Matthews. Matthews was a dominant stud in all facets of the game this year for the Super Bowl winning Packers and now everyone is quick to compare linebacker prospects Von Miller and Akeem Ayers to him.

Brooks Reed might be the closest thing to Matthews in this class. I’m not saying he’s as good. I’m saying they’re similar players and that’s Reed’s absolutely upside. Reed has one of the best motors I’ve ever seen. He never gives up on a play. I commented several times in my Senior Bowl notes throughout the week that he was like the energizer battery. He just keeps going and going and going. I wouldn’t be surprised if he never slept; if he just keeps going and going and going all the time.

He’s a high character kid and a team captain, but don’t take my word for it. Take his. Click here for my interview with this future NFL player. His sack totals aren’t amazing, but his tackle for loss numbers are really good from year to year and he’s a 3 year starter. He proved to be a lot more athletic than expected at the combine, running the fastest 10 yard split of any lineman and running a 4.66 at 263. He also amazed at the drills in both The Combine and The Senior Bowl.

He’s being looked at by both 3-4 and 4-3 teams. He’s a little undersized for a 4-3 lineman, but he makes up for that with hard work and feistiness. He hasn’t played linebacker much in college, but he’s athletic enough to make the switch to rush linebacker and he has the work ethic and motor to make a position change.

That’s the one difference between him and Matthews (as prospects). Matthews played linebacker at USC. However, both are equally explosive and relentless. Both are not great natural athletes, but make up for that with work ethic and hustle. Also, both have crazy hair. Just saying.

NFL Comparison: Poor man’s Clay Matthews

 

 

Chargers Week 6

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By Steve Adler

With all the wild goings on this week at Chargers Park, let’s not forget there is a game this Sunday. Sure, the game is against the lowly St Louis Rams, but with San Diego’s track record on the road this year, no win is guaranteed.

Yet again, for the fourth consecutive season, the Chargers have started the season 2-3. And yet again, they are forced to dig themselves out of a hole to win the AFC West. This week’s opponent is a good team to get the season turned around.

Though San Diego is coming off a disappointing loss against the Raiders, the Rams are trying to rebound from a 44-6 drubbing hands at the hands of the Detroit Lions. If you are getting smoked by the Lions, you are not a good team.

No excuses, the Chargers must win this game!

Chargers on Offense

Philip Rivers is simply unbelievable. He currently leads NFL with 1,759 yards and is tied with some guy named Peyton for first in the league with 11 touchdown passes. 

I am convinced that no one or two people can cover Antonio Gates. He had five catches for 92 yards last week and scored another touchdown. With a touchdown this week, he can pass Lance Alworth by catching scoring grabs in 10 consecutive games.

Vincent who? Malcom Floyd is killing Vincent Jackson’s bargaining leverage. Floyd had a gargantuan day against the Raiders last week, catching 8 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown. Many of those numbers were against all world cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. The Rams don’t have anyone near the caliber of Asomugha, so expect another large day from Floyd.

An injury to Legedu Naanee may open the door for Patrick Crayton and Buster Davis. Crayton has been looking for a chance since being forgotten about on the Dallas Cowboys bench. Rivers has mentioned he likes throwing the ball to Davis. Could be a big day facing the 22nd rank pass defense.

It appears the now very, very wealthy left tackle Marcus McNeill will see his first action after his holdout. His replacement, Brandyn Dombrowski, who played terrific in his absence could be moved to right tackle in place of Jeromey Clary or find himself on the bench. The Chargers have depth now in the offensive line, which will pay dividends as the season goes along.

Mike Tolbert either needs to hang onto the ball or stand on the sideline. It’s fun watching the big guy rumble down the field, but all the yards he’s gaining are wasted when he puts the ball on the ground.

Ryan Mathews is still not 100%, but will see action again this week. When he has been in the game, he has been impressive. As his ankle and elbow get healthier, his touches on offense will increase.

Rams on Offense

Running back Steven Jackson is in striking distance to set the Rams franchise record for rushing yards. He needs just 141 yards to pass Eric Dickerson (7,425). Last week, he ran for 114 yards against the improving Lions defense. He will be fed the ball early and often against a Chargers defense which surrendered 100 yards to Oakland’s Michael Bush.

For the Rams to have any chance at all, they will need Jackson to get the Rams in third and short situations. If rookie quarterback Sam Bradford is forced to drop back and pass the ball deep, it will be a long, painful day for the former Sooner.

Bradford has shown he is a very capable quarterback during the first five weeks of the season. He was the first overall pick in the 2010 draft and has exceeded many of the expectations that come with being drafted so high. 

The Rams signal caller has passed for 1159 yards and eight touchdowns so far this season. Last week, the St Louis offense was dealt a big blow when wide receiver Mark Clayton was lost for the season with a torn patellar tendon. 

Danny Amendola steps into the number one receiver role. Last week, he had12 catches for 95 yards against the Lions. A group of Mardy Gilyard, Laurent Robinson and Brandon Gibson will be Bradford’s other deep targets.

Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui who showed good chemistry with Bradford during the preseason will see significant action this weekend. The rookie from Illinois gives Bradford a huge target. At 6-5 and 270 pounds, he will be a load to tackle if he gets the ball in the open field.

Chargers on Defense

Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer should be able to handle the inexperienced Rams receiving group. The two starting cornerbacks have done a splendid job this season shutting down opposing receivers.

An area of concern has to be at linebacker. With injuries and the imminent release of Shawne Merriman, the linebacker group is paper thin. Antwan Applewhite appears to have the first crack at playing outside in place of Merriman until Larry English returns from injury. 

The three other starting linebackers, Kevin Burnett, Stephen Cooper and Shaun Phillips have all played very well this season. Burnett and Phillips have been playing at a Pro Bowl level.

Reality is, one more injury to one of the linebackers and San Diego could be in deep trouble. There are not many quality, healthy players to turn to.

Rams on Defense

This is a bad, bad match up for St Louis.

If St Louis is going to have any chance to slow down the San Diego super offense, they are going to have to find a way to put pressure on Philip Rivers. That task falls on shoulders of defensive ends James Hall, who has four sacks and three fumble recoveries last three games, George Selvie, who is second on the team with two sacks and Howie’s kid, Chris Long.

If a combination of those three can’t put pressure on Rivers, second year cornerback Bradley Fletcher, who leads the team with two interceptions and Ron Bartell, who has not picked off a pass since 2008, will be chasing Malcom Floyd all over the field.

All three starting linebackers for the Rams played college ball at Ohio State. Veteran Na’il Diggs who had many successful years with Green Bay and Carolina is the leader on defense. Diggs and Larry Grant are the outside linebackers in the St Louis 4-3 defense.

Middle linebacker James Laurinaitis who had a celebrated career at Ohio State, leads the defense with 33 tackles. The son of professional wrestler Animal of the Road Warriors, brings toughness and will not be afraid to step up and face Mike Tolbert in the hole.

Chargers Special Teams

Oh the humanity!

A different week, a different special teams disaster. Having seemingly figured out the kick return coverage problem, the Chargers decided to show a flaw in a different area by allowing the first two punts in last week’s game to be blocked. 

Has there ever been a team that has had five weeks of such atrocious special teams weeks? What was once a strength of the San Diego Chargers, has now become one of the biggest reasons the team is under.500.

Rams Special Teams

Here are the returner names you need to know…Danny Amendola on punt returns and Marty Gilyard and Keith Toston share kickoff return duties.

None of these guys are spectacular, but that doesn’t mean they won’t do damage against the Chargers.

Prediction

Call me a sucker, but I just can’t pick against the Chargers when they play an such an inferior team. If San Diego does not win this game, I will not pick them to win ANY road games this season. 

Philip Rivers will continue to play out of his mind and have another huge, huge game. Then, he will hand off to Tolbert and Mathews who will put the game away in the second half.

The Rams offense will not be able to keep up.

Again, barring any turnover problems or special teams meltdowns, this sound not be a competitive game.

Chargers-40

Rams-10

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Clausen vs. Bradford

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About a month ago all the talk for the first pick was about Gerald McCoy or Ndamukong Suh. I did not do any comparison or debate between which of them was better for one simple reason, I didn’t think either of them had a shot at the #1 pick unless the Rams were really stupid and passed on a franchise quarterback for a franchise defensive tackle. A month has passed and, sure enough, all the talk is about the Rams taking a quarterback #1. Even Todd McShay, notorious NFL Draft bandwagoner, has a quarterback going #1 overall. The issue I’m talking about here is which quarterback they should take. Every one and their dog has Sam Bradford going #1, but I have taken a controversial approach to the Bradford/Clausen debate, by talking Jimmy Clausen. I know numbers aren’t everything, but here are some numbers to support it. I will compare Sam Bradford’s best season as a Sooner (2008) to Jimmy Clausen’s best season as a member of the Fighting Irish (2009).

Completion Percentage

Bradford: 67.9%

Clausen: 68.0%

YPA

Bradford: 9.77

Clausen: 8.76

TD/INT

Bradford: 50/8

Clausen: 28/4

Now, you’ve probably noticed that those numbers are very similar. However, take these things into account. Bradford’s season was 2008, Clausen’s was 2009. Since Bradford’s amazing season, he has had 2 shoulder separations and 1 shoulder surgery. Clausen played his 2009 season with a foot injury. Clausen played 2009 in a Pro Style offense, throwing Pro Style routes from under center, something he’ll have to do in the NFL. Bradford did not. Bradford played in a scheme that not only doesn’t convert to the NFL, but is notorious for producing bad NFL quarterbacks. There isn’t a lot of guess work with Clausen. He had all of his success in a Pro Style offense, which means he’s a lot more likely to pan out than Bradford. Clausen played his 2009 season with about half the talent around him that Bradford had, Bradford being supported by the league’s best offensive line and one of the league’s best running game (2779 yards 45 touchdowns). Speaking of offensive lines, take a look at how many sacks each quarterbacks took during their best season.

Sacks

Bradford: 11

Clausen: 24

Clausen did all of that with at least twice the pressure than Bradford had in his face. In the NFL, both of these quarterbacks are going to go to teams that are bad and hence, teams that have bad offensive lines. Why wouldn’t you want the guy used to producing in harsh conditions, in a Pro Style offense, with little talent around him, over the guy who is used to producing in relatively easy conditions, in a shotgun gimmick offense, with tons of talent around him.

Record

Bradford: 11-2

Clausen: 6-6

Record in games decided by less than 7

Bradford: 0-0

Clausen: 4-6

The only area Bradford has Clausen beat is team record. However, that wasn’t all his fault. The defense supporting him wasn’t great and, considering Clausen led the offense, with no running game, to 30.1 points per game, it’s hard to blame Clausen, though as the quarterback, he does deserve some blame. Clausen lost all 6 games by 7 points or less, which shows he didn’t step up in the clutch enough, but he also did win 4 games in the clutch. Bradford? Well, he was so sheltered at Oklahoma in 2008 that he never played a game decided by less than 7 points. We don’t know how Bradford performs in the clutch. He has never been tested.

I know what you’re thinking. Bradford had two great seasons and Clausen only had one. While one of my major knocks on Clausen is the fact that he’s a bit of a one year wonder, Bradford still did come out of a scheme where everyone had a good year as a quarterback. Look at Landry Jones, Bradford’s replacement when he went down with injury this year.

Jones had a 58% completion percentage with 26 touchdowns to 14 picks and a 7.1 YPA, not great, but also pretty good for a freshman. Let’s take a look at Oklahoma’s last ten quarterbacks in the Bob Stoops era.

2009: Landry Jones 58% 26 touchdowns 14 picks 7.1 YPA

2008: Sam Bradford 68% 50 touchdowns 8 picks 9.8 YPA

2007: Sam Bradford 69% 36 touchdowns 8 picks 9.2 YPA

2006: Paul Thompson 61% 22 touchdowns 11 picks 7.9 YPA

2005: Rhett Bomar 54% 10 touchdowns 10 picks 6.6 YPA

2004: Jason White 65% 35 touchdowns 9 picks 8.2 YPA

2003: Jason White 62% 40 touchdowns 10 picks 8.5 YPA

2002: Nate Hybl 58% 24 touchdowns 8 picks 7.0 YPA

2001: N/A (could not find)

2000: Josh Heupel 65% 20 touchdowns 15 picks 7.6

Guess how many combined NFL starts that group has? 0

Yes, Bradford is the best of this group, but by how much. Oklahoma’s scheme is known for making quarterbacks look better than they actually are.

The final point is strength of schedule. Clausen did not play Bradford’s 2008 schedule in 2009, but he wasn’t far off.

Bradford’s 6 toughest games

Florida

Texas

Kansas

Texas Tech

Oklahoma State

Missouri

Stats 168-245 (69%) 2169 yards (8.9 YPA) 20 TD 4 INT

Clausen’s 6 toughest games

USC

Washington

Connecticut

Stanford

Nevada

Boston College

Stats 141-206 (68%) 1912 yards (9.3 YPA) 17 TD 1 INT

Not exactly the same strength of schedule, but Clausen was better in tougher games than in normal games whereas Bradford was not. Also, when you consider the difference between the good teams Clausen played and the great teams Bradford played is offensively and not defensively, the difference in the strength of schedule is not so profound.

In conclusion, Clausen is proven in a Pro Style offense in tougher conditions through injury, whereas Bradford is proven in a College Style offense in much easier than normal conditions. Clausen struggled somewhat in close games, but at least he played close games, whereas Bradford did not. Bradford comes from a scheme that inflates quarterbacks stats and does not produce good quarterbacks, whereas Jimmy Clausen comes from a traditional West Coast Offense system, which he may have to run in the NFL, considering how popular it is becoming (St. Louis who has the first pick runs it). Clausen stepped up bigger in bigger games, whereas Bradford was about the same in tougher games than in normal games.

This isn’t saying I don’t like Bradford. I think of Bradford as an Eli Manning type player, a player who is smart and can magnify the talent around him, making he will only be just a little better than the players around him. When Eli Manning was first drafted to a struggling team, he made them just a little bit better. Once they added more talent around him, he took them to the Super Bowl, but when Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg, he struggled again going 8-9 since that incident. I see Clausen more as a traditional gunslinger, a Tony Romo, or if you want an example of one who runs a West Coast offense, Aaron Rodgers. He lacks both of their mobility, but other than that, they are very similar quarterbacks and Clausen should have similar success. I tend to go with the Romo comparison a little bit more because people don’t like him (and people don’t like Clausen) and because Romo is not quite a proven winner yet (though this year was definitely a step in the right direction).  

Conference Finals Picks

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Last week overall: 2-2

Last week ATS: 1-3 (-700/+45%)

Overall picks: 172-92 (.652)

ATS Picks: 136-113-7 (+$2960)

Lock picks: 12-5

Upset picks: 35-36 (+1668)

Other: -100 (Seahawks 20:1 to win NFC)

Sports Betting FAQ

Conference Semifinals Recap: Remember last week how I made 1090 in 4 games, nailing a 5 unit, a 4 unit, a 3 unit, dropping a 2 unit and nailing my +110 upset? Well this week I gave a lot of it back. In total I lost $780. I lost $700 or 45% on my ATS picks, won $20 going 1-1 on 2 upsets pick, and lost my longshot 20:1 Seahawks to win NFC bet.

I nailed a 4 unit (GB +2 over ATL), but dropped a 2 unit (NE -9 over NYJ), a 3 unit (BAL +3.5 over PIT) and barely dropped my 5 unit (SEA +10 over CHI), but Pete Carroll decided not to give his team the best chance to win by going for two down 12 late. I got GB +120 over ATL but not SEA +375 over CHI. Overall, I’m still in the positive for the playoffs and I’m still up close to 3K on the year, but this week did hurt.

Random Eric Mangini Notes: How awkward is Eric Mangini on ESPN? Who thought this was a good idea? Mangini was one of the most awkward coaches in the league on the sideline. Who thought he’d make a good ESPN commentator. They made the same mistake with Jon Gruden even though he looks like the type of creep you’d see staring in your window late at night. I can’t help wondering if this is ESPN’s way of making it up to the Mangina after this incident. 

Also, I’m mad Eric Mangini was telling everyone how to beat the Patriots on national television last week. I know what you’re thinking, it’s the Mangina, he’s harmless. Well, for one thing, he was our defensive coordinator for a season and defensive backs coach for 4 under BB. He knows the organization well.

Second of all, he was the man responsible for “revealing” Spygate. I put revealing in quotation marks because I believe he knew the whole time while he was with the Pats that they were doing that type of thing, but choose not to say anything until right around the time he became Head Coach of the Pats’ divisional rival. But he’s the good guy in this whole thing. Yeah. Right.

Third of all, he gave Brady and the boys a 34-14 bitchslapping in Cleveland earlier this season. Now he’s on TV telling everyone how to beat the Patriots and a week later they lose at home in the playoffs to the Jets, who lost 45-3 last time the two met. Those 4 things can’t be coincidences. Mangini knows our secrets. He has it out for us. He’s effectively beaten us before. And worst part, ESPN was in on this conspiracy the whole time. It’s a conspiracy I tell you!!!

Projected Super Bowl Lines:

Green Bay -4.5 vs. NY Jets

NY Jets -1 vs. Chicago

Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Chicago

Green Bay -3 vs. Pittsburgh 

 

Green Bay Packers 28 Chicago Bears 13

Spread: Packers -3.5

Pick against spread: Green Bay 3 units (+300)

I had the Packers winning the Super Bowl before the season started. I’ve thought highly of them all year. I know have them winning the whole thing again with my Patriots out of it. Meanwhile, I have said on numerous occasions that I don’t trust the Bears. I don’t trust the Cutler/Martz combination with this line. They’ve had too many ugly performances this year for me to bet constantly heavy on them because you really never know when they’re going to shit the bed.

However, I’m not a fan of this line. The Packers are -3.5 favorites in Chicago. I really feel like Vegas is overrating them after their 27 point win over the Falcons. As good as that was, that was just one game. This line would be about -9 or -9.5 if it were in Green Bay which is ridiculous.

That being said, I’m going with the Packers. I’d feel more confident if this line went back down to 3, because I can this one being decided by a field goal, but I’m not betting against the Packers right now and I haven’t liked betting on the Bears all year.

The Packers matchup well with the Bears. Their pass rush destroyed Cutler last time and if they could have gotten anything going offensively in that week 17 matchup, that would have been a blowout. Now they have Rodgers on top of his game and a new found running game led by James Starks. In their week 3 battle in Chicago, Green Bay only lost by 3 despite committing 18 penalties. That’s pathetic on the Packers part, but even more pathetic that the Bears didn’t destroy them.

Aaron Rodgers is on an otherworldly tear right now. Since week 9, he has completed 73% of his passes for an average of 9.1 per attempt and 22 touchdowns to 2 picks. In the first three playoff games of his career, his stats are eerily similar, 73% completion, 9.2 YPA, 10 touchdowns to 1 pick. He’s finally got a good running game supporting him and this team had the NFC’s highest point differential even without a good running game all season. If you can get this line at -3, I’d say 4 units. Worst that happens in that case is a push.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 New York Jets 17

Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Pick against spread: NY Jets 2 units (-220)

I went back and forth between Pittsburgh and the Jets trying to pick a winner. Here’s the case for the Jets. They beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this season. As I said last week, teams who win a non-divisional game against a certain team are 17-10 straight up in a same site same season rematch since 2002. That number is 4-2 when the win was on the road (Atlanta/Green Bay did buck this trend last week). They could carry over the momentum from beating the Patriots last week. They looked better than the Steelers did last week. The Steelers only beat the Ravens because the Ravens beat themselves with turnovers and drops. The Steelers are also only 3-4 against playoff teams this season (2-3 when Ben’s the lineup), whereas the Jets are 6-3.

The case for Pittsburgh. They didn’t have Troy Polamalu last time these two met. They almost led a last second drive to win that one anyway. The Jets can’t make it personal like they did with the Colts and Patriots. There’s no revenge factor with Rex Ryan and company seem to thrive on. If anything, that win in Pittsburgh earlier this season could hurt them in this one. Big Ben is the more experienced quarterback with 2 Super Bowl rings already.

I decided to go with Pittsburgh to win. Their case was a little stronger. I do think that win in Pittsburgh hurts the Jets a little and the addition of Troy Polamalu will really help the Steelers confuse Sanchez. However, you saw how close the arguments were. These are two evenly matched teams. They’re also two low scoring, defensive teams so this one will be close.

I think we’re getting a gift getting 3.5 points with the Jets. I’m not going to bet heavily on them as small underdogs because I do like the Steelers to win, but I’m taking the Jets. One trend to take note of, the Jets are coming off a straight up win as 7+ point underdogs and are still underdogs. That’s a lucrative trend in the regular season, but even more so in the playoffs, 6-2 ATS since 2002. 

 

 

Danny Watkins Scout

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Guard

Baylor

6-3 310

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #64

Draft Board Overall Guard Rank: #6

Rating: 75 (late 2nd/early 3rd)

40 time: 5.28

2/19/11: Danny Watkins has an interesting story.  He grew up loving hockey in Canada and became a fire fighter rather than going to college. Then at age 22, he decided to further his education at Butte College in California. That’s where he found football. He played 2 years there as a walk on, showing his natural talent and improving to the point where Baylor, of the Big 12, gave him a scholarship.

He played there for 2 years, all over the line, including at left tackle and became a potential NFL prospect. After only one year at Baylor, he was drafted with the 4th pick in the CFL Draft, but turned them down to stick around at Baylor. Moving to guard, he went to the Senior Bowl, where he proved himself as a potential 2nd round prospect. He is 26 years old, but only has 4 years of experience.

Watching Watkins in the game and more impressively in one-on-one, he was hands down the most polished technician there. He didn’t do a single thing wrong in one on ones. He got good leverage. He used his hands extremely well, better than 95% of college offensive lineman I’ve watched. He looked like a man among boys, which makes sense because at age 26, he literally was. However, with only 4 years of experience, he’s still relatively raw and has upside.

His versatility on the line will only work on his favor. If he was 22, he’d probably be a top 40 pick, at the very least, and possibly a first round. However, at age 26, his career is going to be shorter. I think he makes most sense for a team in the 2nd round, a good team that needs guard help, but would prefer someone who can help right away because they’re built to win right away. Atlanta, New England, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Green Bay all make sense.

NFL Comparison: Stephen Neal

 

DeSean Jackson Eagles

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Maybe last offseason DeSean Jackson was worth this amount, 5 years, 51 million with 15 million guaranteed, but even then it was a stretch. In 2010, he had 47 catches for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns. Last season he had 58 catches for 961 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also butted heads with the coaching staff at times and gave 75% in protest of not being given a long term deal.

Maybe this long term deal will motivate him to become the player he once was now that he’s secure in Philadelphia, but he’s a very moody player. If he’s willing to give less than 100% for one reason, why wouldn’t he give it now that he has 15 million guaranteed? This is a risky deal and an unnecessary risk. They would have been much better off trading him or making him prove it another year under the franchise tag, which he seemed fine with and willing to sign.

Grade: C