By Ryan Glab
A look at four keys for the Bears to beat this week’s opponent.
1. Get rid of the ball quickly
The Jets have one of the most innovative defenses today that has served them well. Despite an awful quarterback, they are winning games with the No. 5 defense and No. 6 run game. They run a version of the “amoeba” defense, which is when no defender — or less than the normal three or four — puts his hand on the ground before the snap. The idea behind the scheme is that the offense won’t know where the defense is coming from and the offensive line won’t know which defender to block. It’s been referred to as “controlled chaos” because it looks like the defense is confused or is playing sandlot ball. It can be a very dangerous defense, though, especially for an offensive line that has had struggles all season. The Bears need to utilize a quick-passing attack to prevent the Jets from sending the house all game. For that to work, though, the receivers need to be on the same page as Jay Cutler.
2. Confuse Mark Sanchez
Mark Sanchez is a bad quarterback. Period. Terry Bradshaw included him, and not Jay Cutler, on his “Top 10 Quarterbacks Under the Age of 30” list that he unveiled on FOX NFL Sunday a few weeks ago. It makes you wonder if Bradshaw took too many hits to the head as a quarterback himself. Sanchez is the No. 1 reason why the Jets won’t win the Super Bowl — now, or in any year in the foreseeable future. He’s ranked No. 28 in passer rating with a mark of 74.6. He’s got a completion percentage of just 54.0, which ranks him No. 30. He has thrown just 16 touchdown passes compared to 12 interceptions. On top of everything else, Sanchez is battling a sore shoulder that he injured last week against Pittsburgh. The best way for the Bears to defeat the Jets is to knock around Sanchez, confuse him by sending pressure from different areas and take away the football.
3. Jump out to an early lead to neutralize the run
Continuing from the previous key, the Bears would prefer to let Sanchez throw the football and take the ball out of the hands of running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, who anchor the sixth-best rushing offense in the league. In order to do that, the Bears need force the Jets to play from behind and also stifle the run game early. Scoring won’t be easy, though. The Jets have the No. 5 scoring defense and are allowing just 18.5 points per game. This could be a game in which the defense scores and that would certainly go a long way towards putting the ball in Sanchez’s hands.
4. Win the turnover margin
The Bears defense failed to record a takeaway against either the Lions or the Patriots before picking up five against the Vikings last week. There’s a reason Lovie Smith preaches takeaways and that’s because turnovers usually tell the tale of which team will win the game. The Jets are ranked No. 8 in the league with a plus-5 turnover ratio, so the Bears need to protect the football on offense to prevent placing any further burden on the defense to record takeaways. The Jets are hardly offensive juggernauts — they rank just one spot ahead of the Bears’ offense, averaging 21.1 points per game — so it’s not as if turning over the ball will automatically lead to points for New York. But it is one less possession the offense will have at scoring on a good Jets defense.
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Big Board 176-200
100 Once in a decade prospect
95-99 Elite talent
90-95 Solid top 10 pick
85-90 Solid first round pick
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick
65-70 3rd-4th round pick
60-65 4th-5th round pick
55-60 5th round pick
50-55 6th round pick
45-50 7th round pick
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp
30-40 Career practice squader
20-30 No NFL future
0-20 No football future
1-25 26-50 51-75 76-100 101-125 126-150 151-175 176-200 201-250 251-300
Go back to 151-175
176. CB Jordan Pugh (Texas A&M) 56
4/9/10: Already a very intriguing late round prospect in my eyes, as one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the Big 12, Pugh really caught my eye with a 4.44 40 at 5-10 196. I’m hoping others took notice too. He looked good in positional drills too, but that didn’t surprise me as much as the time.
A three year starter against some of the toughest quarterbacks and wide receivers in the college game and he has held his own against some talented receivers. He isn’t a true shutdown guy, but he should be rated higher than most scouts, who put too much value on interceptions, have him. He only has 4 career picks.
177. OT Mike Tepper (California) 56
An athletic left tackle who struggles a bit in pass protection. He was never dominant in college, but he should be a solid depth guy in the NFL as a swing tackle. He’s too much of a tweener to go before the 5th though. He is not strong enough as a run blocker to be a consistent starting right tackle in the league either, but the athleticism is there, though not enough to consider him a top prospect or anything like that.
178. TE Clay Harbor (Missouri State) 56
A small school tight end who I hadn’t heard of until the Combine, but he looked like a natural athlete in the measurings at the combine and he looked like an NFL caliber tight end with reliable hands in the drills. Level of competition is an issue, but he has 40 or more catches in each of the last 3 seasons and 59 catches for 729 yards and 4 touchdowns this year. Size was an issue for him, but he bulked up for the Combine and still had a good time in the 40 yard dash.
179. TE Colin Peek (Alabama) 56
4/9/10: He’s a great blocker, but weighing in at just 252 pounds hurts and so does running a 4.93 40. He also only benched 19 reps of 225. He needed a good Pro Day to keep his status as the top blocking tight end in the class, with guys like Mike Hoomanawanui and Nate Byham impressing at the Senior Bowl and Combine. Peek did not do that and he could slip as a result. That slip could be pretty significant given his position as a run blocking tight end. That could be a 2 round slip.
If you look at his stat sheet you get confused as to why he’s an NFL prospect. In his career he had 51 catches for 561 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, he may be the best pure run blocking tight end in college football at the moment and that could get him drafted in the 4th or 5th round. He’s big and overpowering at 6-6 255 and has great technique. His receiving abilities, though limited, are extra. If you want to get a look at his run blocking abilities, he will be at the Senior Bowl next week.
180. WR Shay Hodge (Mississippi) 56
A pro style receiver with very good production this year with 1135 yards and 8 touchdowns, but he lacks breakaway speed, will struggle to get separation in the NFL, and he’s a bit of a one year wonder. He’s not a true one year wonder, but he does have some of the characteristics, plus, his hands are a bit inconsistent. He could be worth a 5th rounder for depth.
181. S Quentin Scott (Northern Iowa) 56
4/9/10: What is with all of these incredibly athletic safeties? Scott, who was nicknamed Taylor Mays by his teammates, but on an amazing show for all 2 of the scouts that came to watch Northern Iowa’s Pro Day with a 4.40 40 at 6-4 224. He is, according to many reports, a very hard hitter who isn’t completely inept in coverage so he could get drafted in the late rounds as a project. At first glance, he seems like a Michael Mitchell type player and he came out of nowhere to go in the 2nd round and it turns out multiple teams had 2nd or 3rd round grades on him. Keep on your eye on this kid.
He could be this year’s Michael Mitchell, that small school athletic hard hitting safety that comes out of nowhere to get a relatively early pick. Al Davis doesn’t need safeties this year so Scott is unlikely to go in the 2nd round, but with his 6-4 224 and highlight reel of hits, the kid his teammates have nicknamed Taylor Mays could very well be taken in the 4th or 5th as a flier. He projects longterm as a strong safety or linebacker, but he has the speed and fluidity to potentially play other positions in the future and, unlike Mays, he was actually pretty decent in coverage last year, albeit against much weaker competition than Mays faced in the Pac-10.
182. G Thomas Austin (Clemson) 56
A bit of an unknown who burst onto the scene as a senior this year, but he’s got good versatility and an excellent knack for the fundamentals so he could be drafted as a depth guy at worst.
183. DE Brandon Lang (Troy) 55
He undersized pass rusher who ran in the 4.9s at the Combine so he may have trouble getting drafted in the first 4 rounds as a future starting type defensive end. He could be a decent nickel rusher in the future, because his 17.5 sacks in the last 2 years are fairly impressive, but the lack of speed and weaker competition makes that less likely. I think it’s safe to say that he won’t be as good as Troy’s last elite pass rusher, DeMarcus Ware.
184. TE Anthony McCoy (USC) 55
Mostly physical upside at this point, but despite his size he was an inconsistent blocker last year and he didn’t have a ton of catches last year, 22. However, he did play in a pro style offense and get good YAC. He averaged 20.8 YPC last year and that’s always a good sign going forward. The upside is there.
185. RB Andre Anderson (Tulane) 55
A decent runner, but not a great one with 1880 yards and 15 touchdowns on 412 carries over the last 2 years, and if he gets drafted in the first five rounders, it’ll be as a runner second and a pass catching back first. He has caught 55 balls over the last two years and reminds a lot of people of a poor man’s Matt Forte, who was drafted in the 2nd round out of Tulane two years ago.
186. WR Seyi Ajirotutu (Fresno State) 55
A big tall receiver at 6-4 and change who former Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer compared to a young Vincent Jackson, who he worked with in San Diego, at the East-West shrine game. However, he never dominated on a college level, despite not facing BCS conference caliber competition very often. He had 3 decent years and 2 above average ones, but his career high in receiving yards is 795 and that was in 2008. He’ll also struggle to get separation at the next level with his low 4.6 speed, so, I could see him panning out, but it’s not likely. He may just be a goal line option at the next level.
187. WR Mike Williams (Syracuse) 55
He has second round talent, but it’ll take a miracle and a stupid GM for him to be drafted in the first 3 rounds. He has been suspended for academic reasons for an entire year before and last year, he quit on his team unexpectedly and, at the combine, he showed up out of shape, only benching 8 reps despite putting on 15 pounds, and when asked about quitting on his team, he didn’t seem to even think it was a big deal. Proceed with caution.
188. S Larry Asante (Nebraska) 55
A very overrated safety, he was a tough hitter on the colligate level and a great strong safety against the run, but he’s undersized so that may not continue on an NFL level and, if it does, it could spell a career full of injuries for him, as smaller safeties like Bob Sanders have had. He’s not as small as Sanders, but he’s certainly undersized. He’s also often lost in coverage and has horrible instincts with his back to the end zone.
189. TE Nate Byham (Pittsburgh) 55
2/27/10: Yesterday, Byham impressed by weighing it at 268 pounds and making him the best run blocking tight end in my eyes, but today he ran like an offensive lineman with a 40 time of 4.97. That’s not good.
2/26/10: If Byham was going to get drafted, it would be as a blocker. Measuring in at 268 certainly helps his cause to be viewed as one of the best run blocking tight ends in this draft class.
One of the elite run blocking tight ends in this class, Byham only had 47 career catches, but he has good size. His route running, hands, and speed could all be a lot better, but he has a role for him in the NFL.
190. TE Jimmy Graham (Miami) 54
A basketball player playing football, but then again so is Antonio Gates. Graham was a forward on the Miami basketball team and only had one year on the Miami football team. He’s an athlete, but didn’t show a ton on the field.
191. 3-4 DE Clifton Geathers (South Carolina) 54
An athletic freak with freakish long arms, just like his brother, Robert, a starting left end for the Cincinnati Bengals. He comes from a long line of successful NFL players and he may even be more athletic than his brother at 6-7 299, but he was very inconsistent and laksidazecal in college and he’s a project with character issues, but he has upside.
192. DE Alex Daniels (Cincinnati) 54
4/9/10: A good job of putting on weight, 265 pounds, and still being fast, 4.55. However, I have to take that with a grain of salt. Something seemed up with Cincinnati’s 40 times at their Pro Day. Gilyard ran a whole .1 faster than at his combine, Ricardo Matthews ran a 4.80 at 6-2 290 and Aaron Webster ran a 4.48 at 6-1 207. Something seemed up with those. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time. All that being said, I’ll increase his stock a little. He should be a solid nickel rusher in the NFL.
He has the measurables you look for out of a future starting end, sub 4.7 speed, 4.55, and over 260 pounds, 265, but that 40 time was at his Pro Day and it just seemed like everyone was running faster than usual at Cincinnati’s Pro Day that day. He also has one year wonder written all over him. Before this year, in which he had 8 sacks, he only had 1 in his college career. He may even be a one game wonder. 4 of his 8 sacks this year came in one game. He’s not strong against the run, so if he’s not an elite pass rusher, I don’t think he’ll be very valuable in the NFL, though some teams are going to take a chance on him in the 6th as they look for valuable defensive end depth.
193. WR Taylor Price (Ohio) 54
An athletic freak capable of many acrobatic catches who is loved by Todd McShay, but his hands are way too inconsistent. He makes tough catches, but he’ll drop easy ones and his instincts in terms of route running and getting open aren’t great.
194. OLB Stevenson Sylvester (Utah) 54
Your run of the mill 5th round depth linebacker, a bit undersized, but good production at the good school with a good system that could provide some value depth on special teams and as a linebacker. He hasn’t shown me anything special that really wowed me.
195. QB Jonathan Crompton (Tennessee) 54
Crompton is a guy who came to Tennessee with a lot of hype, but never really showed that on the field, except for a little bit this year. He has experience in a pro style offense and all the tools he’ll need, but the tape and the production is very inconsistent.
196. RB Joique Bell (Wayne State) 54
He was the pride of Wayne State for the last 4 years, returning kicks, running the ball, catching passes, en route to having over 6000 career rushing yards. He broke the Wayne State rushing record midway through his junior year and then added an NCAA leading 2084 yards as a senior. However, he may have been overworked as a collegiate back and he lacks speed. His 40 times ranged from 4.65-4.68 and he really looked slow running the ball in the Senior Bowl. He lacks explosiveness and runs too upright to break the amount of tackles he broke in college. At an NFL level, his size, his best asset, will be nothing special, 5-11 219.
197. S Anderson Russell (Ohio State) 54
He struggled a bit in his senior year, but I gave him a third round grade after his junior grade and I don’t intend to back off of that too much. He could be a do everything free safety at the next level, but he may have a hard time getting drafted.
198. OT Kyle Jolly (North Carolina) 54
A fairly standard left tackle anchor in college, but he didn’t show good athleticism at the combine so he may have to make the switch to right tackle where he wouldn’t be anything special or even really a future starting caliber prospect.
199. WR Emmanuel Sanders (SMU) 54
One of the more accomplished wide receivers in this draft class with 285 receptions for 3791 yards and 34 touchdowns in his career, but a big chunk of that came in June Jones’ offense, which is notoriously bad at producing NFL players. However, he still showed good hands on tape, as well as a lot of other nice things, so he could be a solid depth guy at the next level, he has experience as a return man.
200. G Joe Thomas (Pittsburgh) 54
A very solid and versatile depth guy whose motor I love. He doesn’t have a ton of upside and he’s not a huge name guy, but every time I’ve seen him, he’s made NFL caliber blocks. Size is an issue though.
Go on to 201-250
Brandon LaFell
Wide Receiver
LSU
6-2 211
40 time: 4.59
Draft board overall prospect rank: #40
Draft board wide receiver rank: #4
Overall rating: 79*
2/28/10: He wasn’t supposed to be a speed demon, but a 4.59 hurts a lot. He’s not going to get a lot of separation at the next level. He also measured in at 6-2 this week instead of 6-4 so his stock could be taking a drop this week.
1/17/10: The perfect fit for a run heavy pro style offense because he has experience running pro style routes and he’s an amazing run blocker for his age. His frame is still a bit wiry and that could lead to injuries at the next level as he tries to make some of the crazy catches he made in college, but he’s certainly not afraid of anything and will throw his body around for the ball fearlessly. 57 catches for 792 yards doesn’t seem like much for a senior season, but when you consider that LSU passed 336 times this season, all of a sudden those numbers look really good. He was by far the most dominant end zone threat on his roster and his 11 touchdowns more than tripled the total of the guy who was second on the team. He’s got good height, good hands, good fearlessness, good run blocking, and a good red zone presence, but needs to put on more muscle and he’s not fast in comparison to some of the receivers in this draft class.
Update (11/2/09): Big tall wide receiver with solid hands and great run blocking ability. Perfect for a run heavy offense and has the potential to be a top receiver at the next level.
7/28/09: Brandon LaFell put up very good stats last season as the #1 for LSU, despite the fact that LSU runs one of the most conservative run heavy offenses in the country. What really impressed me about LaFell was his consistency. He didn’t have any games last season that made you say wow, with the exception of a 12 catch 126 yard performance against Troy, but he had at least 48 yards in every game last season. LaFell fits right into the gritty tough style of LSU. He loves to go over the middle and catch balls. He never gives up on a ball and will throw himself out there to get the ball even if it puts himself at risk. On one hand, that’s great and you love that if you’re an NFL scout. On the other hand, you look at how Anquan Boldin, a player who does the same thing, is always hurt in one way or another in the NFL, and then you look at the fact that Boldin is 10 pounds heavier than LaFell and lot bulkier and you worry about LaFell’s health going forward. He needs to add at least 10 pounds to his frame, if not more, to be able to dive after balls over the middle of the field, with all of the big safeties in the NFL. He’s tall, at 6-3, and a great possession receiver, but has not flashed the high touchdown numbers that would suggest that he’s a big time end zone threat, although that may be because of the bad pass offense he played in at LSU. He’s a very physical and tough to guard because of that. Physical wide receivers normally have an easier time transitioning to the NFL than speedsters. His timed speed is below average and if he runs a 40 in the 4.5s, that could really hurt. If he runs one at about 4.48, he should be fine, assuming he can add on the bulk that he needs to, which shouldn’t be a problem because he’s a hard worker. He has very reliable hands and should be a reliable player in the pros going forward. He’s not a future #1 option, but he should be a solid #2 possession receiver that will always be there to make a play on the ball. Because of this weak wide receiver class, that could be enough to sneak him into the 1st round, but I give him a 2nd round grade overall.
NFL Comparison: Dwayne Bowe
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Browns Recap 2010
At one point this season, this team had a lot of hope. They may have been a mere 5-7, but they had one of the toughest schedules in the league. In fact, at that point, they had beaten every sub .500 team they had played (Cincinnati, Carolina). They hung within a touchdown of Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, New York, and Jacksonville.
Rookie Colt McCoy had impressed in 5 starts, leading the team to victories over the Saints and the Patriots, before an ankle injury. Peyton Hillis had emerged into one of the premier backs in the league. The young defense had stepped up big time and elevated this team to victories over Carolina and Miami even without McCoy. Even when they lost 13-6 to the Bills week 14, things still looked promising with McCoy coming back.
However, McCoy wasn’t the same in his final 3 starts, going 54 for 95 for 3 touchdowns, 6 picks and an 0-3 record. Peyton Hillis also hit a rough patch at the same time. The breakout back, who had rushed for 1070 yards, 11 scores, and caught 57 passes for 446 yards and another 2 scores through 13 weeks, only had 107 rushing yards and 4 catches for 31 yards in his final 3 weeks. The Browns ended the season at 5-11 and Head Coach Eric Mangini was fired and the hope that was once strong has dwindled.
However, there is still some hope. Browns fans can hope with time to rest, both McCoy and Hillis can regain their form. Last year was McCoy’s rookie year and Hillis’ first year as a feature back, so it’s possible they both just hit “rookie walls” of sorts. The Browns will almost certainly try to get McCoy better receiving options this offseason.
They also will add to a defense that ranked 13th in fewest total points allowed, a very impressive number for a young defense. Their defense only accumulated 29 sacks, so that’s obviously an area they can improve. However, this defense does look promising for the future thanks to the breakout play of rookie corner and 7th overall pick Joe Haden.
Carlos Rogers 49ers
The 49ers let Carlos Rogers hit the open market because they didn’t want to meet his demands of a 4-5 year deal, presumably in the neighborhood of 6-7 million per year. The market dried up for him today with St. Louis agreeing to terms with Cortland Finnegan and Dallas close to an agreement with Brandon Carr. Those were his two most likely destinations. So it makes sense that he’d return to San Francisco at a discount.
The only problem, the 49ers signed him for more than the original amount he reportedly asked for. Now it’s possible those reports were wrong, but the 49ers still overpaid giving him a 4 year, 29.3 million dollar contract (upwards of 7 million per year). Rogers is a soon to be 31 year old former first round bust who finally had one good season last year in San Francisco in a contract year surrounded by immense talent.
Who’s to say the career disappointment doesn’t go back to being a disappointment now that he has his money? Who’s to say his abilities don’t take a turn south as he gets into his 30s? Who’s to say that Rogers’ strong season last year wasn’t just a product of the talent around him? One hand it’s nice to keep all 11 starters from one of the league’s best defenses, but on the other hand, I think they overpaid.
Grade: C
Chiefs 13 Bills 10
By Mike Toast
For some reason I still care about these games and for the second week in a row I am so pissed at the outcome. How did we lose this football game? The Chefs are horrible. They are a bad football team. Their coach Todd Haley sucks. Their QB Matt Cassel is a complete bum. The only good player on their team is Jamal Charles. The Chefs ran for 274 yards. This should seem like an astronomical amount of yards but we as Bills fans are numb to running backs averaging 8 yards per carry. Seriously, did Haley really punt on 4th and 7 from the 33 and then go for it on 4th and 3 from the 20? Then, was he really going to go for it from his own 30 at the end of regulation? Is this dude on crack? I would never ever ever punt on 4th and 7 from the 33. Kick a field goal or go for it…why would you punt?
The Bills defense is bad. I know I have said this over and over like a broken record but how many bad plays can Chris Kelsay make? What loyalty does this coaching staff have to Kelsay? He got juked by Matt Cassel. That is almost as bad as getting juked by Chad Pennington like another terrible Bills linebacker did in Eddie Robinson. If you are getting compared to Eddie Robinson, that is not a good sign. The Bills defense can’t buy an interception either. I haven’t heard Jairus Byrd’s name said on air all season. George Wilson had a ball right in his hands. Whitner had a chance at an interception…but who is surprised at Whitner making no plays…again. The Bills had 28 interceptions last season…they have one this season. How can you possibly go from 28 interceptions to 2? That is what they are currently on pace for.
How bad must the Bills defense be for George Edwards to get fired? I understand that it is his first year as Bills defensive coordinator, but thus far I have seen no improvement. The Bills did only allow 13 points but I think that has more to do with the lack of talent on the other side of the ball than actual good play by the Bills defense.
I know on the podcast I said how much I like Fitzpatrick. He made some big plays today, especially that pass to Parrish on 3rd and long in leading the Bills to the game tying touchdown. When it is all said and done however, Fitzpatrick did not make the plays needed to win the game. He made two horrible throws that you can say cost the Bills the game today…the wounded duck interception at the end of regulation and the pass to Spiller that he missed in overtime. If you want to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, those are plays that have to be made. Fitzpatrick is guaranteed to throw a terrible interception in every close road loss we have it seems. As of today, Fitz is nothing but a backup that we will keep around to hopefully mentor Andrew Luck. I will not put 100% of the blame on Fitz though. The play calling when the Bills got close to field goal range was very questionable. The Bills ran 10 plays starting with the drive at the end of regulation in which they had 1st and 10 inside the Chefs 43 yard line. The passed incomplete on 7 of those plays, threw one interception and threw one 3 yard pass to Jackson. The only run was a QB scramble. Why did the Bills become so one dimensional when they got near field goal range? No one knows. On Lindell’s missed field goal, if the Bills were about 4 yards closer, that kick would have been good and not hit the goal post.
Does anyone else absolutely despise listening to Steve Tasker? In the beginning of the game he actually said the Bills defense was improving. Then, in the 2nd quarter when the game was tied at 0, he said this game was playing out exactly how KC wanted to. I am sure Todd Haley drew it up just like that. “Hey guys, we are playing a 0-6 team, hopefully we can keep it tied in the 2nd quarter.” Then, on 3rd and 3 after the Evans fumble, he went to commercial saying the Bills should kick a field goal and take the points because “they need to stop KC anyway.” Then after commercial, he said that the Bills need to try and score a TD on this drive. What is he talking about? Hopefully his producer called him out on how absolutely lost he is during that commercial break. Stick to special teams, Steve, you lifetime mediocrity.
The Bills are now 0-7 and play the Bears in Toronto next week. The Bills have had no business losing their past 2 games. I would say that the chances a team would lose the last 2 games based on how the games transpired would be less than 1% but that’s the Bills for you. This team just cannot win.
http://wnywatercooler.blogspot.com
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Colin Kaepernick Scout
Quarterback
Nevada
6-5 233
Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #81
Draft Board Overall Quarterback Rank: #5
Overall Rating: 72 (mid 3rd)
40 time: 4.53
3/23/11: Kaepernick threw very well. His footwork and his delivery have come a long way from The Senior Bowl, where, at least in the game, he looked very raw. He cemented his status as a 2nd round pick in my opinion.
2/19/11: 3 players have ever rushed for 20 touchdowns and passed for 20 touchdowns in the same college season, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick. The reason Kaepernick is not being talked about as a 1st round pick like Tebow was and Newton is, first was his level of competition. Nevada might have beaten Boise State, but they still played in the WAC, which is not the same as playing in the SEC like Tebow and Newton. Kaepernick also is a rawer prospect. He has a wild delivery like Tebow, but not Tebow’s hustle and heart. He played in a very similar scheme to Cam Newton, but his arm isn’t as big as Newton’s, his delivery needs more work than Newton’s, he doesn’t quite have Newton’s speed, and didn’t win like Newton did.
Kaepernick’s stock is on the rise after The Senior Bowl. He was very raw in the game, failing to see open targets and opt to run outside the pocket on almost every snap, but he did a good job of throwing on the run and keeping his eyes downfield. His pocket footwork needs help and he has a tendency to throw off his back foot. His delivery isn’t quite the same as Tebow’s. Some scouts have even said that it reminds them of Philip Rivers and that they wouldn’t touch it. He had the strongest arm at the Senior Bowl, not saying much, but it’s not elite and his short accuracy and footwork need a lot of work.
Kaepernick is probably best off going 2nd or 3rd round to a team with a low upside starter in place, like say Buffalo will Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cincinnati with Carson Palmer, Seattle with Matt Hasselbeck, Jacksonville with David Garrard, or Arizona, assuming they sign someone like Marc Bulger or Donovan McNabb. He’s not ready to play right away, but with the right coaching, I could see him taking off and being a good starter in his 2nd or 3rd year.
NFL Comparison: Poor man’s Josh Freeman
Cowboys Bears Preview
By Jim Keller
Quick, when was the last time the Dallas Cowboys started a season 0-2, and how did they finish?
The answer is 2001 when they lost to Tampa Bay and San Diego and finished 5-11. The Boys also lost their first two in 2000 and finished 5-11, so that seems to indicate the importance of this week’s home opener against the Chicago Bears in Cowboys Stadiums.
Dallas is 34-15-1 all-time in home openers, losing openers this decade to Philadelphia in 2000, Tampa Bay in ’01, Atlanta in ’03, Washington in ’05 and the New York Giants in ’09.
Dallas comes in having thought they won the game with the Washington Redskins last Sunday after Tony Romo threw an apparent 11-yard TD pass to Roy Williams on the game’s final play. However, it was called back because right tackle Alex Barron was called for his fourth holding call (third accepted) of the game and the Redskins prevailed 13-7.
Chicago won in just about opposite fashion last week. The Bears beat the Detroit Lions 19-14, but only after an apparent 25-yard scoring pass from Shaun Hill to Calvin Johnson with 25 seconds remaining was ruled incomplete by the officials and upheld by the replay booth. Johnson appeared to have possession with both feet on the ground, but the ball popped loose when he hit the ground while holding it with one hand.
What will Dallas have to do to get back on track of becoming the first of 36 teams whose cities hosted a Super Bowl to actually make it to the season’s biggest game?
Offense
It appears that Dallas has the same problem, albeit just the preseason and Game 1 as a small sample size, as last season – converting yards into drives.
Dallas was second in total offense last season but 14th in scoring and Romo completed just 44 percent of his tosses inside the 10-yard line. On Sunday at Washington, The Boys racked up 380 total yards – fourth most in the NFL in Week 1 – and managed just seven points.
The main culprit in this one was penalties and the offensive line. Dallas had 12 penalties for 91 yards and Washington declined two other holding penalties. Right tackle Alex Barron was whistled four times and continued his preseason horrendous play. Fortunately for Dallas, starting right tackle Marc Colombo is set to return along with left guard Kyle Kosier, both out with knee injuries.
But having those starters back isn’t a cure-all. The average age of the line is 32 years and they combine for about 1,600 pounds. A study by Football Outsiders determined that lines of this age don’t win Super Bowls let alone improve as they age. So that doesn’t bode well for improving upon an 11-5 mark to advance to the Super Bowl.
Hopefully, with the line intact this week against a good Chicago defense, Romo will have more time and confidence in his line and the game plan will be to challenge Chicago more vertically than horizontally.
Last week it was obvious the game plan called for short and flat passes as nine of Romo’s 31 completions were for two yards or less. Romo used quick 3-step drops and relied on “smoke routes” that didn’t go anywhere, screens and flares. He threw only 2-3 balls more than 20 yards downfield all night, but he did show maturity, trying to force only one ball.
I’ll be looking for Romo to utilize big play weapons Miles Austin (10 catches, 146 yards) and Dez Bryant (8, 56) down the field more and try to get Felix Jones (24-yard reception on first touch) out in space.
Chicago’s defense held Detroit to under 200 yards and just 21 yards on the ground, but it was the Lions and they played without starting QB Matthew Stafford for the second half. Julius Peppers knocked Stafford out of the game with a first-half sack on a play that drew a fine by the league office for going to the head – albeit ever so slightly.
Dallas will have to keep an eye on Peppers, who will probably be moved all over the line to create a good matchup. Former Pro Bowler Tommie Harris is also a pressure guy and will have to be maintained, but linebackers Brian Uhrlacher and Lance Briggs, coming off a combined 17 tackles, one sack, forced fumble and fumble recovery performance against Detroit, will be coming for Romo and will use their quickness against the beef and age of the Dallas front.
Dallas has one of the best run games in the NFL and averaged 4.7 yards last week, but ran it just 22 times with a long run of 12 yards, but only one carry resulted in negative yardage.
Many experts have questioned that run-less strategy and it has called rancor in Cowboys Nation about who is running the show, coach Wade Phillips, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett or head man Jerry Jones.
Dallas shouldn’t return to the ground on a more heavy-dose plan this week because that simply isn’t what the Cowboys do. They are a pass-first, run second team that relies on Romo, its best and most important weapon first and foremost.
Defense
Dallas held Washington to a pair of field goals, McNabb completed under 50 percent of his passes and the Redskins’ ground game was shut down completely for three quarters until making some solid runs and first downs in the fourth to help control the clock.
DeMarcus Ware, who is scheduled to play after straining his neck on a collision with Skins RB Larry Johnson late in the fourth, had one sack and provided solid edge pressure all night.
However, the Cowboys couldn’t put a consistent rush on McNabb without gambling with an extra blitzer and didn’t come close to forcing a turnover or making any big plays.
This week the D will be up against the team that amassed over 400 yards of total offense with QB Jay Cutler throwing for 372 yards and 2 TDs to Matt Forte.
The Bears will have a choice. Cutler was sacked four times last week and 10 times in limited play during the preseason, and Chicago’s run game was stagnant last season, so do they try to attack Dallas downfield and become vulnerable to sacks and Cutler’s questionable decision making – he led the NFL with 26 picks last season – or do they try to establish the run game, control the ball and limit turnovers – they had an interception and 3 fumbles lost last week.
Dallas likes corners Michael Jenkins and Terence Newman, and will probably man-them up on the outside against Devin Hester and Johnny Knox. They will try to stuff the run and pressure Cutler. With Chicago’s suspect line, the Cowboys hope to apply pressure, confuse Cutler and force him into bad decisions.
Special Teams
Despite missing just one FG all preseason, Dallas must be concerned with David Buehler, who missed his first career attempt from 34 yards last week. An excellent kickoff man, Buehler has a reputation for being erratic on FGs.
Dallas punter Matt McBriar, who has one of the strongest legs in the game, missed two opportunities to pin Washington deep when he booted punts into the end zone. The kick coverage team allowed 76 yards on two returns and the Boys’ didn’t have much in punt or kick returns.
Bears FG kicker Robbie Gould is one of the most accurate kickers in the game but is challenged length-wise. Hester is one of the best return men in the game, but his effectiveness has dropped off in recent seasons and he averaged just three yards per punt return last week.
Prediction
It’s the Cowboys home opener, a game Dallas needs for more ways than one – Phillips’ security, don’t want to start 0-2, end talk of offensive and red zone woes – against an opponent that is beatable.
With Colombo and Kosier back and another week for Bryant to get comfortable with the offense, the Boys’ offense should be more efficient but still not where it needs to be. The Bears’ 19 points on over 400 yards wasn’t efficient either, and Dallas’ D is a step or two ahead of Detroit’s, so Cutler will not be as effective, will make some poor decisions and Dallas will prevail 23-13.
Leftovers
14 first downs, 20 minutes of possession in first half last week without scoring a point
Dallas inside Redskins 40 in three of first four series without a point
Perhaps the stupidest two plays since Leon Lett against Dolphins on Thanksgiving and in Super Bowl in Miami. It was the fifth time in series history that the Skins returned a fumble for a TD. Washington won four of those games by less than a TD.
Bryant had no big-play impact in pass or kick game; caught eight passes for 56 yards, a club record for catches in first career game and the most by a rookie making his debut since Denver’s Eddie Royal had nine catches for 146 yards in 2008.
Roy Williams was a no-show as usual; three catches for 21 yards but could have had the game-winner; probably had five balls his way all night
Last week was the fourth time Dallas had amassed 380 yards of ffense in the opener and lost.
Sixth time in franchise history Dallas has been held to seven points or fewer in the opener, and first since 2001 against Tampa Bay (0-6)
Austin is third player in franchise history to record 10+ receptions in opener, joining Tony Dorsett (1984) and Frank Clarke (1962&64), and Austin’s 146 yards receiving is sixth most in an opener
Romo completed 31 passes and lost just one other time in his career, in last year’s home opener to the Giants; Troy Aikman did it twice, Danny White once and Steve Pelleur once.
David Hawthorne Saints
The Saints already signed Curtis Lofton this offseason, but could have used another linebacker because Martez Wilson is an unproven 2011 3rd round pick, Chris Chamberlain is a mediocre starter, and Jonathan Vilma is an aging, declining player who could be suspended for a large portion of next season and/or cut. Hawthorne was a great value at 19 million over 5 years with just 4.5 million guaranteed (3.8 signing bonus and 700K first year salary).
I’m just wondering how the Saints are managing to fit all these deals under the cap. They were backed up against the cap, but they’ve still managed to resign Marques Colston, sign Ben Grubbs to replace Carl Nicks, and add 3 starters (Brodrick Bunkley, Curtis Lofton, and David Hawthorne) to their front 7, where they really needed help. I know they won’t have Sean Payton, but as long as they have Drew Brees, they should once again be the favorites in the NFC South against after 13 wins last season.
Grade: A
DKSB
Pseudonym: DKSB
Email: dksb17@gmail.com
Twitter: twitter.com/dksb17
Blog: http://davekriegsstrikebeard.blogspot.com/
I have been a Seahawks fan since 1983, and I have watched every game in person or on live TV since week 1 of the ’83 season. I’ve been writing about the Seahawks since 2003, but I started my own Seahawks-specific blog in January of 2008. I’ve also been a season ticket holder since 1997, even though I moved out to Ohio in 1999 for grad school. I also contribute semi-regularly on the Seahawks blog Field Gulls. I’ve been to Seahawks games in St. Louis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Detroit over the years, and I’m proud to say I was part of the roaring Qwest Field crowd at playoff games in 2005, 2006 and 2007.
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