The 2010 draft could be one of the more talented ones of the decade, not because college football has more talented NFL caliber players right now, but because more of them will declare. There could be a rookie pay scale in 2011 so players could lose millions if they stay in school, especially quarterbacks, even if they actually improve their draft stock by returning. We could see a lot more redshirt sophomores and juniors declare this year than most years.
This year’s defensive line class is interesting. Normally, the bulk of the good defensive line prospects are at defensive end, but this year, at least when you consider elite top 10 prospects, they are all, for the most part, at defensive tackle. Ndamukong Suh might be the best collegiate defensive player in the country and Gerald McCoy is not far behind. Both fit into both a 3-4 and a 4-3 defensive system and both are incredibly mobile for their size. The defensive tackle class also has depth with big pass rushers such as Jared Odrick, Arthur Jones, and Brian Price. Derrick Morgan is my top rated defensive end prospect because of his size and agility combination. Brandon Graham is not far behind. Carlos Dunlap gets the hype, but he has not lived up to it this season and appears unmotivated on tape. He could be a Jamaal Anderson clone rather than a Mario Williams clone. Rush linebackers are plentiful in this draft class with guys such as Von Miller, Jerry Hughes, and my personal favorite as a sleeper, Jermaine Cunningham. Everson Griffen has great athleticism and could go in the first ten picks on upside alone as either a defensive end or rush linebacker.
This linebacking class is better than most. Travis Lewis, Greg Jones, and Sean Weatherspoon all have first round talent, but might not go there because of their position. All three can play outside linebacker in a 4-3, but Weatherspoon and Lewis can also play 3-4 middle linebacker. Rolando McClain has shot up my board to be my top rated middle linebacker. He is drawing premature comparisons to Ray Lewis, but those aren’t far off in terms of upside. Brandon Spikes is the big name middle linebacker, but I have concerns about his ability to defend the pass and his explosion. Eric Norwood has awful measurables, but could be a very good outside linebacker in either the 4-3 system or the 3-4 as a rush linebacker. He’ll have to make the transition from defensive end though because of his size. Rennie Curran covers the whole field well and is drawing premature comparisons to Derrick Brooks. He needs to bulk up, but could go in the 2ndround on upside alone.
My top three atop my cornerback board are very good first round prospects, but very different. Trevard Lindley has mastered the art of the man to man coverage and bump and run coverage, but doesn’t have good athleticism to play zone and is very small against the run. Ras-I Dowling is a natural zone corner with elite size, but struggles with man-to-man coverage. Joe Haden plays in a man-to-man scheme at Florida, but gets burnt too often for a first round prospect. However, he’s a freak athlete who is strong in run support and projects as a #1 zone corner at the next level. Kyle Wilson could go off the board in the early 2ndround. Javier Arenas is technically a corner, but projects as a fantastic kick returner at the next level and possibly a receiver. Syd’Quan Thomspon is an NFL ready nickel corner, but gets burnt too much to be an elite cornerback at the next level.
Eric Berry headlines an above average safety class. He is one of the smartest safeties I’ve ever scouted at this level. He has excellent hands, defends man-to-man, supports the run despite a small frame, and has amazing instincts. Earl Thomas is turning some heads at Texas with his excellent understanding of being a ball hawker, but is not a great run supporter. Taylor Mays is the big name, but I hate his fundamentals and see him as either a Roy Williams type safety or a cover 2 linebacker. He sadly may be the first safety off the board over Thomas and Berry who I like a lot more. Reshad Jones could make it 4 safeties in the first round and the 2nd round could be equally as promising with guys like Darrell Stuckey and Morgan Burnett. Myron Rolle is the wildcard. He has top fifteen pick potential, but hasn’t played in a year and has aspirations of being a neurosurgeon.
The 2010 draft could be one of the more talented ones of the decade, not because college football has more talented NFL caliber players right now, but because more of them will declare. There could be a rookie pay scale in 2011 so players could lose millions if they stay in school, especially quarterbacks, even if they actually improve their draft stock by returning. We could see a lot more redshirt sophomores and juniors declare this year than most years.
With Sam Bradford done for the year with shoulder surgery, Jimmy Clausen is set to be the first quarterback off the draft board, which could mean he goes #1 overall. Sam Bradford shouldn’t fall far even with his shoulder surgery because of how many teams need quarterbacks early in the draft, but he’ll need to prove his arm at his pro day and his individual workouts and show scouts why they fell in love with him in the first place. Ryan Mallett could declare this year and go in the first round on potential alone. He has more upside than any quarterback in college football right now, but is extremely raw. Jake Locker is likely not as beloved by scouts as he is by ESPN, but he could go top ten as well, though I think that is a mistake. Tim Tebow has his doubters and I’m not quite one of those, but he has a bunch of huge fans, Wayne Weaver, Jaguars owner, Jon Gruden, unemployed coach, as well as Tony Dungy. In fact, the Jaguars have all but confirmed that, if available, they will draft Tebow in an attempt to sell tickets. Jevan Snead hurt himself by going back to school this year with a high amount of interceptions and a low completion percentage. Colt McCoy is hyped by ESPN, but has a very slim chance of going in the first round. He has the upside to be a Chad Pennington or Kyle Orton type player, but his downside is pretty bad. Tony Pike has the potential to go in the first round, but I doubt he does. He, like McCoy, is likely a 2nd or 3rd round prospect in the eyes of the scouts.
The running back class starts with two speed burners, CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best. They both have good speed, but Best has more power in his legs and Spiller is a better pass catcher and kick returner. Jonathan Dwyer represents the best power back in the draft class and may be the most complete every down back prospect in the draft class, but he plays in a weird offense so that hurts him. Evan Royster could go in the 2nd round and Ryan Matthews is quickly rising thanks to the fact that he leads college football in rushing yards. Joe McKnight has good straight line speed, but needs to improve other things like changing directions and breaking tackles. Toby Gerhart has good size, but doesn’t move well enough to be much more than a goal line back or fullback. Noel Devine is extremely fast and has good stats in college, but he’s smaller than Darren Sproles and doesn’t have a ton of a future in the NFL.
The first two wide receivers off the board this year could be two very quiet relatively unknown players, which is rare for wide receivers. Damian Williams is known for his route running and his fundamentals and Brandon LaFell is known for his size, his hands, and his run blocking. Williams is the only receiver I see as a first round lock, but 5 could go in the first, including LaFell, big talent, big ego Dez Bryant, who is suspended for the season for violating an NCAA personal conduct rule, Arrelious Benn who has been a major disappointment this season and should not go in the first 2 rounds in my opinion, and Golden Tate, who has the big time stats, but lacks elite size. Eric Decker, despite his foot injury, should go in the first two rounds as well. Dezmon Briscoe is the wild card. I personally love him, but his route running is very raw. I think he projects as a Miles Austin or Brandon Marshall type player in the NFL, one of those receivers who is as hard to bring down as a running back. He should go in the first 3 rounds, but his shot at the first round is slim. I do not believe this should be the case. Jermaine Gresham could go higher than any wide receiver, despite being a tight end, but not playing his season due to knee surgery could hurt him. He needs to reestablish himself in workouts, but he leads a relatively weak tight end class along with Dennis Pitta who is NFL ready, but does not have a huge upside.
The offensive line is not my specialty and I rarely go off the popular path with this position, but I tend to like USC’s Charles Brown more than most. He lacks elite size, but he is an amazing pass protector. His footwork, for someone his age is amazing and is comparable to Ryan Clady’s when he declared. Clady was a rookie of the year candidate last year as a left tackle. Russell Okung is the most complete left tackle in the class. Bryan Bulaga has the athleticism, but falls down too often to be an elite pass protector. Trent Williams has struggled at left tackle this year and may be a right tackle longterm despite amazing athleticism. Bruce Campbell could go top ten, but his history of injuries scares me off. Ciron Black and Sam Young should both be solid right tackles in the league for a long time. Anthony Davis and Mike Johnson are hybrid guys. They could play tackle, but may project longterm as left guards. Both have good size and are amazing run blockers. Selvish Capers’ athleticism is getting him some looks in the 2nd or 3rd round as a left tackle prospect and Jason Fox is one of the good, young up and comers at this position. He could leap into the first round with some luck as a natural left tackle, but might be 2nd round pick. Adam Ulatoski could also be targeted in the 2nd round as a future left tackle. Mike Iupati is the best pure guard in this draft class and should go in the 2nd round, though I have yet to see him play because Idaho is never on TV. Kristofer O’Dowd headlines a weak center class. This could be a very full first 2 rounds in terms of offensive lineman.
This draft class could be one of the best in the last decade. You may not know the names of most of the stars of this class yet, but you will, especially on the defensive end. Carlos Dunlap is probably the best overall defensive prospect since Mario Williams. Gerald McCoy is probably the best overall defensive line prospect since Glenn Dorsey and he may even be a better and more complete under tackle than Dorsey because he has better measurable speed. Eric Berry is the best safety prospect to come out in the last 10-15 years. He probably isn’t going to be better than Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed when he comes into the league, or maybe even ever, but in terms of best safety prospect, that title goes to him. There are very few safeties you can use a top 5 pick on and live to tell the tale. Berry is one of them. Sticking with safeties, the supremely athletic Taylor Mays could also go in the top 10, or even the top 5 depending on where Al Davis is drafting. Even though Al Davis loves him, he is still an amazing prospect, especially athletic. He is 6-4 225 and could run a 40 in the 4.3s. I would say that, with the exception of possibly Aaron Curry, those 4 guys are better than every defensive prospect in the 2009 draft class. Joe Haden and Trevard Lindley should headline a very good cornerback class, which is a big difference between this class and 2009’s. Lawrence Marsh and Marvin Austin are huge upside defensive linemen who were big time prospects with great athleticism coming out of high school, but haven’t gotten things going in their first 2 years in college. With big seasons, they could rocket to the top of draft boards.
On the offensive end, things are just as promising. Everyone knows about the Big 3, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, and Sam Bradford, but in the shadow is young Jevan Snead. He led a Mississippi team that was not supposed to accomplish much to an amazing season as just a sophomore. Some scouts are already comparing him and his arm to Matt Stafford, this year’s #1. Snead isn’t going to go #1 because of the strength of this class, but the Stafford comparison isn’t far off. Many people are down on McCoy and Tebow because of the style of offensives they play. I like both of them, Tebow more so, but I still believe McCoy could become a pro bowler in the right system. Very few guys complete 77% of their passes and this includes guys who run spread offenses. As for Bradford, he is the real deal. He is the best quarterback prospect, in my opinion, since Eli Manning, and within his first few years he could emerge as a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback.
Jermaine Gresham is one of the best tight end prospects of the decade. He isn’t as good of a run blocker as Brandon Pettigrew or as athletic as Vernon Davis, but he makes plays all over the field and overall is an excellent tight end and a quarterback’s best friend. He is better than Jeremy Shockey was coming out of Miami and on par with Kellen Winslow in terms of the amount he could be sought after early in the draft. He’ll probably be a better tight end than either Shockey or Winslow in the long term. Running backs in this class are nothing special, but Jonathan Dwyer and CJ Spiller could become very successful backs in this league. Joe McKnight and Javhid Best both have blazing speed and will be available in the late 1st, early 2nd round range drawing them hundreds of comparisons to Chris Johnson between now and draft day 2010. I don’t see a lot of sleepers in the running back class, but I like DeMarco Murray who should be available in the 2nd round. Overall, it’s a pretty thin running back class. Arrelious Benn headlines a lackluster wide receiver class, but he should be a solid top 10 pick. Guys like Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Ciron Black, and Sam Young could go in the first round as offensive tackles.
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