LaDainian Tomlinson Jets

 

LT comes to the Jets to replace Thomas Jones, begging the question, was this necessary? Thomas Jones was the 3rd leading rusher in the league last year and he only one year older than LT and he got paid 5 million over 2 years to go to the Chiefs after the Jets cut him. Now the Jets pay roughly the same amount, slightly more, to LT who averaged 3.3 YPC last year. Granted, he was running behind a horrible offensive line, but why would the Jets sign a worse and only slightly younger running back to replace Jones, who they could have had for the same price if not cheaper. LT could turn around him career behind a drastically better line in New York, but I doubt he’ll be anything like what Jones could have been. The only possible reason I could think of LT being better than Jones for the Jets is if Jones refused to take a secondary role to Shonn Greene and LT was fine with this. I do find that a bit hard to believe though, considering LT said himself that he still considers himself a feature back.

Grade: C

Lions Preview 2011

 

9/3/11: The Lions won their last 4 last season to close 6-10, but had a points differential of a team that should have finished 8-8. They added Nick Fairley, Stephen Tulloch, and Justin Durant to their front 7 and they get Matt Stafford back from injury. The questions were, can Stafford stay healthy and is Stafford even that good? Stafford has yet to prove himself as a franchise quarterback after 2 injury plagued seasons after going #1 in 2009. However, he looked amazing this preseason and the Lions as a whole did as well. I’m sneaking them into that 6th playoff spot in the NFC at 10-6.

In 2008, the Lions won no games. If they had forfeited every game, their record would have been the same. However, that seems like a long way away now. Bottoming out was what this team needed after a long stretch of terrible play. Bottoming out allowed them to start fresh with new personnel in the front office (and no more Matt Millen) and at head coach. It also gave them the first pick and allowed them to select their savior, quarterback Matt Stafford out of Georgia.

The Lions won their final 4 games last season to finish 6-10. Their point differential of minus 7 suggests that with better luck (leave it to the Lions to have terrible luck), they really should have been a 7 or 8 win team in 2010. In fact, 7 of their 10 losses came by 8 points or fewer. And this was all without “savior” Matt Stafford, with the exception of 3 games (only finished 1 though).

Stafford is healthy now, but seems to have the toughness of, as one of his teammates put it, a “china doll.” It seems like every time he hits the turf his shoulder separates. Even if Stafford can play a 16 game season, he’s still largely an unknown commodity. He sucked as a rookie, throwing 20 picks to 13 touchdowns, completing just 53.3% of his passes and averaging 6.0 yards per attempt. However, even Peyton Manning sucked as a rookie.

In limited action in 2010, Stafford completed 59.4% of his passes for an average of 5.6 yards per attempt and 6 touchdowns to 1 interception, but that was in very limited action. The point is, there are a lot of unknowns with Stafford. Can he stay healthy? If he even good? However, there’s a lot of upside here and if they can win 6 games with bad luck without him, imagine what they can do if he’s a legitimate franchise quarterback.

You can also add in the fact that the Lions drafted well to the list of reasons why they are sleepers this year. However, those draft picks need to stay healthy. They’ve already lost one of their top 3 draft picks, Mikel Leshoure, for the season. Meanwhile, first round pick Nick Fairley, who was supposed to add to what looks like one of the best front 7s in the league, could be in doubt for the start of the season with a foot injury. Receiver Titus Young is the only one of their top rookies who will definitely be ready for week 1.

Young will man the slot for the Lions, at least to start the season. If marginal veteran Nate Burleson struggles or Young particularly impresses, Young could move into the starting lineup opposite “Megatron” Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson is the type of receiver you create in Madden when you want to cheat. You know, when you set all his attributes to 99 and you make him 7 foot tall and 400 pounds, that’s essentially Calvin Johnson.

He doesn’t quite get ranked on the same level as Andre Johnson because he never has had the consistent quarterback Andre has. However, discounting 2009 when he was hurt, he has 155 catches for 2451 yards and 24 touchdowns in his last 2 seasons even though his quarterbacks were Daunte Culpepper, Dan Orlovsky, Jon Kitna, Drew Stanton, Shaun Hill, and 3 games of Matt Stafford (2 of which he didn’t even finish). Stafford is by far the best quarterback of that bunch. He has by far the best arm and is thus best suited to make full use of Megatron’s amazing deep threat abilities. I’m really, really excited to see what Stafford and Johnson can do if both stay healthy. Stafford must be thrilled to have Calvin at his disposal.

At tight end, former 20th overall pick Brandon Pettigrew is an overrated player, at least as a pass catcher. He’s a good run blocker, however. He did catch 71 passes on 103 targets last year, but he also committed 10 penalties and dropped 12 passes. Stafford won’t look his way as much this season as Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton did last year because Stafford has a stronger arm and will be looking downfield more often.

In two tight end sets, Tony Scheffler comes in. Scheffler was once a talented starting tight end in Denver before Josh McDaniels came in and decided that pass catching tight ends were stupid and shipped him to Detroit for some spare change. Scheffler caught 45 passes last season, but that number should also drop this season. Hill/Stanton threw to tight ends 174 times in 2010. That won’t be the case in 2011 if Stafford can stay healthy.

Speaking of keeping Stafford healthy, a lot of that will fall on the offensive line. Stafford needs to be kept upright. He’s too fragile to take a lot of hits, or at least he’s proved to be that way so far in his career. Left tackle Jeff Backus bounced back from 18 combined sacks allowed in from 2008-2009, rewarding his coach’s blind faith by only allowing 4 sacks in 2010. He is, however, 34 in September and currently hurt. He’s also a free agent, but the Lions passed on drafting his replacement in 2010 because they liked 2010 4th round pick Jason Fox, as well as Corey Hilliard.

Left guard Rob Sims is a decent pass protector, but like center Dominic Raiola and right guard Stephen Peterman, he is not very good as a run blocker. There’s a reason why this team struggled to run the ball last year. These guys weren’t opening holes. At right tackle, Gosder Cherilus has never lived up to his billing as the 17th overall pick in 2008 (over Jeff Otah). However, he’s a decent starter, provided he stays healthy.

Running behind this poor run blocking offensive line will be lead back Jahvid Best. Best averaged a mere 3.2 yards per carry in 2010, not entirely his fault. You can blame a lot of that on the line and the rest can be blamed on turf toe sapping the rookie 1st round pick’s explosiveness. Best is reportedly dropping jaws in training camp once again so he should be poised for a big season.

He’s not a true every down back so the Lions drafted Mikel Leshoure in the 2nd round. Unfortunately, and rather ironically considering Best was the one with injury problems, Leshoure tore his Achilles in camp and is out for the season. The Lions signed Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison to compete for the #2 back job behind Best, a battle Harrison should definitely win.

Bell has a career average of 3.7 yards per carry, while Harrison rushed for 561 yards and 5 touchdowns in the final 3 games of the 2010 season, lost his starting job to Peyton Hillis the next season and then was traded to Philadelphia where he averaged 6.0 yards per carry as LeSean McCoy’s backup, including 99 yards on 21 carries as the starter week 17. Why this guy is not a starter in this league, I don’t know and I also don’t know why he was available in free agency for so long, but credit the Lions for picking him up. He’s definitely better than Bell, who should be battling with veteran Maurice Morris for the #3 back role.

 

Defensively, one of the things that has so many people so excited about Detroit as a sleeper is their front 7. They had 44 sacks last season and figure to improve upon that total even more this season. Ndamukong Suh had 10 sacks as a defensive tackle as a rookie last year. That’s unheard of. If Sam Bradford wasn’t looking like a franchise quarterback and savior in St. Louis, there would be calls in St. Louis for people to be fired for passing on Suh for Bradford. We shouldn’t expect anything less of Suh this season.

Nick Fairley is supposed to start next to him. Fairley could miss a few games, but he’ll be back sooner rather than later. He’s a rookie and will be hurt by the lockout, but he’s an extremely talented player who had 12.5 sacks for Auburn last season and only dropped because of bullshit “durability issues” (he sounds like he can’t breathe when he talks so maybe that’s why those “issues” exist).

Next to Suh, he should dominate. You won’t be able to stop both of them. They will wreak havoc. Don’t forget, the Lions also have solid players in Corey Williams and Sammie Lee Hill on their depth chart at defensive tackle. They might have the most defensive tackle depth in the league. Gone are the days when this team was starting a 36 year old Grady Jackson at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, the Lions use a rotating trio of Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril, and Lawrence Jackson. Vanden Bosch is the veteran of the group. Vanden Bosch turns 33 in November, but he’s a leader on the field and a favorite of Head Coach Jim Schwartz, under whom Vanden Bosch had his best success when Schwartz was the defensive coordinator in Tennessee. He only had 4 sacks last season, but makes up for it by being strong against the run.

Avril is undersized and gets washed against the run, but you take the good with the bad with him. He put up 8.5 sacks and a whopping 43 quarterback pressures last season despite only playing 651 snaps. Lawrence Jackson is currently listed as a 2nd stringer, but that was the case last season and he still found opportunities to get on the field. The former 1st rounder was given up on way too soon by Seattle, who sent him to Detroit last offseason. He put up 6 sacks on 337 snaps.

Between their 4 talented defensive tackles and their 3 talented defensive ends, they have 7 talented defensive linemen that they can mix and match and use to really punish opposing quarterbacks. The defensive line was a strength of this team last year and will be a bigger strength next season. However, linebacker, once a strength of this team, was a weakness last season. This season it figures to be a strength once more.

The reason behind their new found strength at the position is two underrated free agent signings, Stephen Tulloch and Justin Durant. Tulloch was 2nd in the league in tackles last season, yet the Lions were able to get him for a mere 3.35 million over 1 year. He must have taken some kind of discount to play for Jim Schwartz, his former defensive coordinator in Tennessee, because they got him at a bargain. He’ll immediately make a noticeable difference in their linebacking corps and he’s familiar with Schwartz’ system, a plus coming out of a lockout shortened offseason.

Justin Durant, meanwhile, comes over from Jacksonville. He’s a talented player when healthy, but he’s never played more than 14 games in a season missing 14 games in his 4 years as a pro. If, and when, he gets hurt, rookie linebacker Doug Hogue, a 5th rounder out of Syracuse, could step into the lineup. Durant and Tulloch combine with DeAndre Levy to form a very formidable linebacking group. Levy, an incumbent starter from 2010, was the lone bright spot at the position for the Lions in 2010 and figures to have another strong season in 2011. There are simply no holes in their front 7. They have more defensive line depth than any team in the league, depth the coaching staff knows how to use effectively.

The Lions are hoping their pass rush and their overall strength up front can mask their deficiencies in the secondary. Despite 44 sacks, they still ranked 26th against the pass thanks to terrible coverage. Chris Houston could be an adequate #2 cornerback in the league, but he had to be their #1 last year because Alphonso Smith and Nathan Vasher split time as the #2 cornerbacks. Neither of them were very good.

The Lions signed Eric Wright in free agency to be their new #2 cornerback. Wright, however, had the 2nd worst quarterback rating against of any eligible cornerback in the league last year, only behind Dallas’ Michael Jenkins. Wright surrendered a 66.5% completion percentage and 6 touchdowns to 1 interception. He is still just 26 and he’s been better in the past so maybe a change of scenery and a better pass rush in front of him is all he needs to become a legitimate starter again. Even if that happens, the Lions won’t have a legitimate #1 cornerback, so they should struggle in pass coverage once again.

Louis Delmas, a 2009 2nd round pick, is the most talented of their defensive backs. He’s not great against the pass, but he’s not terrible either and his strength is against the run. Meanwhile, at strong safety, CC “Cant Cover” Brown is no longer the starter, very good news. However, that’s where the good news ends. 2010 3rd round pick Amari Spievey will start at the position this year. He struggled mightily as a rookie. He could bounce back in his 2nd season, but I have doubts about his ability to do so.

The Lions are many people’s top sleeper for 2011. I think it’s best to temper expectations right now for them. They did play well enough to be an 8-8 team in 2010 and they are getting quarterback Matt Stafford back from injury, but people act like the only question mark with Stafford is his health. It’s not. Plenty of #1 overall quarterbacks have busted before. We’re skeptical about guys like Cam Newton and Sam Bradford after they get drafted, but we seem to be giving Stafford a free pass even though he’s yet to prove himself one way or another.

I’m not going to predict the playoffs for the Lions, though I’ll admit I could easily be wrong. If Stafford can play 16 games and be a legitimate franchise quarterback for them, they could easily win 11 games and make the playoffs as a wild card and be a tough first round out. They have enough non-quarterback talent to do that. However, I’m going conservative with my prediction for them this season.

Quarterback: B-

Running backs: B-

Offensive line: C+

Receiving corps: B

Run defense: B

Pass rush: A

Pass coverage: C-

Coaching: B-

Projection: 10-6 2nd in NFC North

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Martez Wilson Scout

 

Middle Linebacker

Illinois

6-4 250

Draft board overall prospect rank: #26

Draft board overall middle linebacker rank: #2

Overall rating: 83 (late 1st)

40 time: 4.44

3/28/11: Martez Wilson has been much hyped since he was the #5 overall high school player in 2007, committing to Illinois as an end and moving to linebacker. He definitely has the upside and the natural athleticism, but doesn’t always live up to it. He showed a lot of upside as a backup as a freshman, before disappointing as a starter as a sophomore, and then being hurt as a junior, before finally putting at all together this year as a redshirt junior.

He had 111 tackles, 4 sacks, and a pick as primarily a middle linebacker this year, though he can play outside some and he showed that natural athleticism big time with a 4.44 40 at 6-4 250. He is a former end, so he is an above average pass rusher for his position. He can’t play rush linebacker or another, but he is above average as a blitzer so that’s just like a cherry on top to his game.

His major concerns are of course his durability and also his instincts and his work ethic. He has really never lived up to his upside, so it’s important not to fall in love with his athleticism and make him a true first rounder. I have a late first round grade on him, remember middle linebackers rarely get picked early, and I think that’s going to be where he goes. His absolute ceiling in terms of being drafted is 26th to Baltimore, but he’ll likely go in the early 2nd round.

NFL Comparison: Karlos Dansby

 

 

Middle Linebackers 2012

Updated 4/4/12

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT NT 3-4 DE OLB MLB CB S K P 

Scoring System

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
<40 No NFL Future

  

1. Luke Kuechly (Boston College) 91

2. Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) 84

3. Mychal Kendricks (California) 72

4. Tank Carder (TCU) 63

5. Audie Cole (NC State) 57

6. James-Michael Johnson (Nevada) 57

7. Chris Galippo (USC) 56

8. Jerry Franklin (Arkansas) 51

9. JK Schaffer (Cincinnati) 49

10. Austin Johnson (Tennessee) 46 

11. Vontaze Burflict (Arizona State) 45

 

18. Max Gruder (Pittsburgh) 43<p> </p><p id=”dontshowthis”> </p>

Must win Bills

By Steve Janis 

Yes, this is a must win for the Buffalo Bills. They are 0-8, they want the #1 overall pick, they are already out of the playoffs and every L they get moves them closer to Andrew Luck (hopefully). I get all that. But do we really wanna go 0-16? I don’t and one victory won’t end our chances at the top spot in the draft any way.

Looking at the schedule this will be the last game the Buffalo Bills are favored all season. Etch that into a piece of wood. This is there last good chance at a victory. Stafford is out, the Lions have lost 24 straight on the road and the game is actually in Erie County.

We’re all about numb to all of the losing at this point but zero triumphs in an entire season? That is beyond disheartening it is beyond embarrassing. I couldn’t stomach it. Losing to Shaun Hill and an albatross of a squad as the Detroit Lions would be icing on a poop popsicle. Don’t we want to leave the Ralph once this season after a win? I for one miss having a post game beer in celebration rather than to drowned my sorrows. Win one for the gipper!

Go back to Bills Fan Spot

http://wnywatercooler.blogspot.com

2010 NFL Draft Pro Days

 

I don’t put a ton of stock into Pro Days. All I care about is 40 times for players who didn’t run at The Combine, seeing quarterbacks throw who didn’t run at The Combine, and weigh ins. If a player runs a 4.4 at his combine and then a 4.5 at his Pro Day, I don’t much, if any, stock into it because Pro Day 40 times are known for being a bit shotty. I only use Pro Day 40 times if the player didn’t run at his Combine and even then I take it with a grain of salt.

WR David Gettis- Baylor UP

Yes, I don’t put much into 40 times, but Gettis showed nice consistency running a 4.39 after running a 4.47 at The Combine. Pretty impressive when you consider he’s 6-3 216. He also has a 10’4″ broad jump. He didn’t do much on the field last year, or ever for that matter, but Al Davis could still be interested in the 3rd. For alive owners, he’s a 6th or 7th round prospect. But he wasn’t even on my radar before his Pro Day.

S Jordan Lake- Baylor DOWN

Lake wasn’t invited to The Combine so he needed a big day to get drafted. A 4.79 at 6-1 (1 inch shorter than listed) 209 with a mere 30 inch vertical didn’t do him any favors. I’d be surprised if he got drafted.

WR Naaman Roosevelt – Buffalo DOWN

I still would draft him if given the chance, but a 4.60 at 6-0 189 doesn’t help him. He could have trouble getting drafted now, after a down year last year, but I like his hands and his upside. He could be a decent slot guy at the next level.

QB John Skelton- Fordham UP

Having never gotten the chance to see him play at Fordham, getting to watch Skelton throw at his Combine was pretty impressive. I have heard the hype around him, but was conservative in my grading of him, a small school kid, until I actually say what he had. The only thing he appeared to struggle with was deep accuracy, but he has a huge arm and showed nice touch and footwork on his short throws.

TE Colin Peek- Alabama DOWN

He’s a great blocker, but weighing in at just 252 pounds hurts and so does running a 4.93 40. He also only benched 19 reps of 225. He needed a good Pro Day to keep his status as the top blocking tight end in the class, with guys like Mike Hoomanawanui and Nate Byham impressing at the Senior Bowl and Combine. Peek did not do that and he could slip as a result. That slip could be pretty significant given his position as a run blocking tight end. That could be a 2 round slip.

CB Brian Burney- Colorado UP

Put himself on the map with a 4.38 40 at 5-11 202 and a 39 inch vertical. I don’t think he’ll be much at the next level, but he has upside and you can do a lot worse than that in the 7th round. Most likely he’ll go undrafted and get an invite to camp and a chance to win a 4th cornerback job.

DE Alex Daniels- Cincinnati UP

A good job of putting on weight, 265 pounds, and still being fast, 4.55. However, I have to take that with a grain of salt. Something seemed up with Cincinnati’s 40 times at their Pro Day. Gilyard ran a whole .1 faster than at his combine, Ricardo Matthews ran a 4.80 at 6-2 290 and Aaron Webster ran a 4.48 at 6-1 207. Something seemed up with those. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time. All that being said, I’ll increase his stock a little. He should be a solid nickel rusher in the NFL.

OT Anthony Davis– Rutgers DOWN

How can I lower his stock if he didn’t do anything? Well simply that, he did nothing. He didn’t show up to his Pro Day, canceling at the last minute (Andre Smith anyone?). He needed to be in shape for his Pro Day after showing up out of shape to The Combine, but he didn’t even show up to the Pro Day, probably because he was even more out of shape. This show he lacks commitment (bailing at the last minute) and work ethic (being out of shape). Neither of those things are good for an offensive lineman. This guy might as well have BUST stamped across his forehead.

RB Keith Totson- Oklahoma State UP

Normally I don’t pay much attention to improved 40 times, but Totson also lost 7 pounds, from 212 to 205, and as a result of that ran a tenth of a second faster. I like the work ethic and discipline so I’ll move him back up a little.

 

C Kevin Matthews- Texas A&M UP

Football is in his blood (his dad is Hall of Fame center Bruce Matthews) and he looked the part of Bruce Matthews’s son at his Pro Day looking really good in positional drills. In a weak center class, Matthews could get himself drafted.

CB Jordan Pugh- Texas A&M UP

Already a very intriguing late round prospect in my eyes, as one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the Big 12, Pugh really caught my eye with a 4.44 40 at 5-10 196. I’m hoping others took notice too. He looked good in positional drills too, but that didn’t surprise me as much as the time.

RB Deji Karim- Southern Illinois UP

One thing I do like about Pro Days, watching guys I’ve never heard of. Southern Illinois’ Deji Karim had 1694 yards on a 7.4 YPC and 18 touchdowns last year, albeit for a small school, and then he came out and ran a 4.37 at 5-9 210 and then looked very good in his positional drills. He’s an interesting late round prospect with his combination of size, speed, and production. He also caught 17 passes last year, another plus.

CB Rafael Priest– TCU DOWN

Didn’t run because of his foot injury. He’s still a favorite sleeper of mine, but I was expecting his foot to be healed by now.

G Brandon Carter- Texas Tech UP

This is what I like to see. Ran a poor 5.36 at his Combine, so he lost 10 pounds and then ran a 5.24. A 5.24 at 6-6 319 isn’t overly impressive, and for an offensive lineman 40 times barely matter, but I love the dedication and commitment to football. Overall he has lost about 30 pounds in the last 2 years, showing good dedication to get into shape and stop being overweight.

RLB Jan Jorgensen- BYU DOWN

Yikes! Already undersized at 256, Jorgensen ran a 4.93 at his Pro Day. With only 6.5 sacks last year and a poor size/speed combination, he’s a long shot to get drafted.

CB Traye Simmons- Minnesota DOWN

Ran a 4.58 at 5-9 180. No scout wants to see that, me included, especially for someone on the fringe of being drafted. He still has some things I like that he brings to the table, but I don’t see it as enough.

CB Devin Ross- Arizona DOWN

Basically the same story as Simmons, but worse with a 4.63 (after a 4.56 at his Combine) at 5-10 183. He could still get drafted, but the thing I liked most about him, seeing him last year, was his fluidity and athletic upside. Not anymore.

TE Scott Sicko- New Hampshire UP

I love him as a late round sleeper out of small school New Hampshire, but he had some issues with size in the past, being about 240 at New Hampshire. He was 251 at his Pro Day (plenty big) and still ran a 4.53 with a 35 inch vertical and looked comfortable in the drills playing with that weight. 

RLB Thaddeus Gibson- Ohio State UP

Normally I don’t pay much attention to improved 40 times, but I will take notice if there is a significant increase or decrease for someone. Gibson is a 243 pound pass rusher who has to play rush linebacker because of his size, so the 4.71 he ran at The Combine, though not too far off from his projected time of mid to late 4.6, was not good enough for even early Day 3 consideration. Now, after his 4.58 40 time, I can see him more fitting that role as a rush linebacker in the NFL and for that reason, he could be a 5th or even a 4th rounder given the need for athletic fluid rush linebackers to play the 3-4. I do still have some concerns about his ability to switch positions and his production on the field last year wasn’t great. He had have 45 tackles and 13 tackles for loss, but only 4 sacks.

CB Akwasi Owusu-Ansah- Indiana of Pennsylvania UP

First of all, how did his parents name him, hit random keys on a keyboard (or typewriter, considering his birth date)? Second of all, there’s an Indiana in Pennsylvania? What? All that aside, AOA is a very athletic cornerback with good speed and amazing kick returning ability. His 4.31 40 time, a major improvement over his 4.43 from the Combine, shows more of that amazing speed we were expecting from him. He could get drafted in the 4th on upside and he’s certainly one of the more intriguing small school mid round prospects. He averaged 29.7 yards per return on kick returns last year and 12.5 yards per return on punt returns. He also scored 5 special team touchdowns

S Morgan Burnett- Georgia Tech UP

Burnett didn’t work out at the Combine, so he needed a strong Pro Day. A 4.42 40 at 6-1 209 and a 39.5 inch vertical show his athletic potential. He could be a late 1st round or early 2nd round pick in any other year, but this is one of the strongest safety classes in the last ten years so he could fall to the late 2nd. Still, these measurables but him in the running, in a big way, with Nate Allen and Chad Jones to be the 4th safety off the board.

CB Joe Haden– Florida UP

Turns out that 4.57 40 from his Combine was a result of a sore back. Haden ran a 4.43 40 at his Pro Day, in the rain nonetheless, so I’ll move him back to his Pre-Combine status. He’s still, by far, my top cornerback.

MLB Brandon Spikes– Florida DOWN

He had looked slow this year in games, but I was waiting to see him run a 40 before I called him slow because he has run 4.6s in the past. I thought the projected 4.75 was outrageous. Turns out it was, outrageously low that is. Spikes ran a 5.03 at Florida’s Pro Day. He was regarded as slow and complacent before his Pro Day and he certainly did nothing but back either of those things up. He’s now solely a 3-4 middle linebacker and could slip out of the 2nd day all together. No one wants a middle linebacker that slow and complacent. He has upside, but he no longer appears to care.

QB Tim Tebow– Florida UP

He didn’t look great in terms of throwing delivery at his Pro Day, but he certainly, mechanically looked a ton better than he did in the Senior Bowl and all last season. In fact, the work he has made on his throw is a huge testament to his amazing work ethic and love of the sport. He’s still a project and far from a finished project, but he has good upside and I think he has the work ethic to fulfill it. I don’t see why some places regard him as less than a 2nd round prospect.

CB Donovan Warren- Michigan DOWN

Didn’t look great at his Pro Day, running a 4.62 and struggled in drills some as well. I still am very high on him and his shutdown skills, but it doesn’t look like a lot of people agree with me. 

RLB Jason Worilds- Virginia Tech UP

I rarely care when a player runs a faster 40 at his Pro Day than his Combine, but Worilds’ 4.47 makes me take notice. He ran a very solid 4.61 at his Combine, but a 4.47 at 6-1 254 puts him on a completely different level. He didn’t do much last year, but he has experience playing rush linebacker and has amazing athleticism. His athleticism is right behind that of Jason Pierre Paul and Sergio Kindle and his production was only slightly less than either of there’s. He could sneak into the 2nd round, but, like Kindle and JPP, I have him ranked lower than he could go because I like to see a player actually produce on the college level before I use a pick in the first 3 rounds on him. 

DE Greg Hardy– Mississippi UP

I think he saved his stock and may have put himself back into day two consideration at his Pro Day. He lost about 8 pounds (now at 277) and ran 4.79, .08 seconds faster. He’s still talented and some teams may take this improvement and the lost weight as a sign of good things to come. I still have my doubts, but this helps.

WR Freddie Barnes- Bowling Green DOWN

Yikes! 4.67 40. 30.5 inch vertical. 8 foot 11 inch broad jump. He’s got good hands and he caught a metric shitton of balls (yes, that is a legit unit of measurement) last year, but he was doing it in an offense that bloated stats and he just did not look athletic at all at his Pro Day. He’s going to find the NFL very difficult. I can’t see him making the transition. 

TE Rob Gronkowski– Arizona UP

There were rumors that, after back surgery that caused him to miss all of last season, he was still not healthy. I think he proved that wrong because, simply put, you can’t run a 4.65 at 6-6 258 with a bad back. The injury, and the rust that comes along with not playing a whole year because of injury, are still issues, but this guy could have been a first rounder if he had a good year this year and there’s no doubting he could be a steal for a team in the 2nd round. I think he’s clearly the 2nd best tight end in this draft class, at least in my mind, because of Dennis Pitta’s lack of elite athleticism and upside and Aaron Hernandez’s small frame and inability to run block.  

QB Sam Bradford– Oklahoma UP

Bradford looked great in his Pro Day, showing the stronger arm that it was predicted he would have when he showed up 15-20 pounds heavier to The Combine. The Rams have not announced him as the #1 pick, saying they are going to wait until his private workout with them on the 19th, but I would be very surprised if he wasn’t the pick and they didn’t have a contract in place with him before draft day on the 22nd. 

WR Dez Bryant– Oklahoma State NEUTRAL

Bryant’s measurables and workout in the positional drills, especially after basically a year off of football, were really impressive considering he was wearing brand new cleats that had not been broken in before. However, when you consider that the reason he did not have cleats is because he “forgot,” it’s hard to consider this pro day a success. He is known for having mental lapses on the field, and dropped a few catchable balls today, so forgetting something as important as your cleats cancels out the good that the strong workout did, especially when it’s something as important of your Pro Day after being suspended a whole year for something stupid. He really did not seem to get the importance of this day.

TE Fendi Onobun- Houston UP

A 4.45 40 at 6-6 252? Onobun should just buy a house in Oakland now as Al Davis is going to be targeting him in the late rounds. Who cares that the former Arizona basketball forward only caught 2 passes in his college career? a 4.45 at 6-6 252! In all seriousness, Onobun is a huge risk of a late round pick and has almost no football experience, but you can definitely see the upside. Most likely he’ll be undrafted if Al Davis chooses to pass on him, but could sign with a team and try to make their week 1 roster.

WR Carlton Mitchell- South Florida UP

Followed up a 4.49 at 6-3 215 at The Combine with a 4.40 on his Pro Day and he also looked to have good hands in the drills. He didn’t produce at an elite level in college, but he’s full of physical upside and merits a look in the 5th. Al Davis is going to have a hard time choosing between him and David Gettis (6-3 216 4.39) in the 3rd/4th round range. Mitchell is better than Gettis though, as he did have 40 catches for 706 yards and 4 catches last year.

S Michael Greco- Central Florida UP

He’s very raw and didn’t produce much last year but if a 4.31 at 6-3 230 can get Taylor Mays drafted in the first, than a 4.40 at 6-3 224 can get this raw strong safety drafted in the late rounds. Al Davis doesn’t need safeties this year, but he may consider Greco anyway.

DT Vince Oghobaase– Duke UP

A 5.29 forty was just the start, after a 5.43 at The Combine, but Oghobaase looked much healthier today than he did a month ago. He’s a first round talent when healthy, the issue is, with his injuries, past and present, he’s probably a 4th rounder.

K Garrett Lindholm- Tarleton State UP

Where is Tarleton State? Who cares! Level of competition doesn’t matter with kickers. If you can kick, you can kick anywhere. Lindholm nailed a 64 yarded last year and then went out on his Pro Day and nailed 3 of 4 from SIXTY PLUS YARDS!!! I normally am against drafting a kicker in the first 5 rounds, but this Sebastian Janikowski clone is an exception. Teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Falcons, who desperately need kicking help, will consider him in the 5th and make him the first kicker off the board, even before highly hyped Alabama kicker Leigh Tiffin. 

DT/3-4 DE Jay Ross- East Carolina DOWN

I don’t get this decision. Ross played all of his college career at 315-320 pounds. He played fine and could have been a nose tackle in the NFL and gotten drafted about 2 rounds earlier than if he had not been viewed as a nose tackle prospect. The weigh was not hampering his agility. Yet, he still decided to drop 13 pounds, to 302, which is not nose tackle size. It helped his 40 time, 4.99, but losing the ability to play that coveted position hurts his stock. Instead of 4th round range, he’s looking at 5th or 6th. I drop him from a late 3rd round prospect to a 5th.

NT Linval Joseph- East Carolina UP

Joseph was smart enough not to lose very much weight, dropping only to a very fit 319. He still has the size to play nose tackle. However, he was still able to drpp his already impressive 5.09 to 4.93. He proved himself to be one of the most agile big men in the country last year and is now clearly my #4 nose tackle. That could sneak him into round 2. 

S Quentin Scott- Northern Iowa UP

What is with all of these incredibly athletic safety? Scott, who was nicknamed Taylor Mays by his teammates, but on an amazing show for all 2 of the scouts that came to watch Northern Iowa’s Pro Day with a 4.40 40 at 6-4 224. He is, according to many reports, a very hard hitter who isn’t completely inept in coverage so he could get drafted in the late rounds as a project. At first glance, he seems like a Michael Mitchell type player and he came out of nowhere to go in the 2nd round and it turns out multiple teams had 2nd or 3rd round grades on him. Keep on your eye on this kid. 

 

2011 Senior Bowl Game

QB Christian Ponder UP

The game’s MVP (though I’d argue Leonard Hankerson deserved it), Ponder started off shaky. He underthrew a limp deep ball that was caught by Leonard Hankerson, who made a great play to find the ball, for 49 yards. He then threw a near pick on the goal line, a bad decision. Kendric Burney had inside position on Hankerson. Then he threw an incompletion and the South had to settle for a field goal. However, after that, he was good. 7-13 for 131 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks. Everything from 15 yards or shorter was good. Good timing, good reads, good accuracy, looks like a West Coast offense type quarterback. His struggles with the deep ball, which is why he’s no more than a 4th rounder, but overall he helped himself today. He was really the only quarterback who greatly increased his stock today.

WR Leonard Hankerson UP

My MVP, Leonard Hankerson did everything. He was on the field for almost every play. He was impossible to cover. Aside from one drop, he didn’t make a mistake. He’s big and physical at 6-2 205 and plays bigger than that. He’s got good hands and great speed and athleticism. Reminds me a bit of Brandon Marshall actually. He had 5 catches for 99 yards and a score and should have had more if his quarterbacks had the arm strength to hit him downfield. He had his man beat to end the half for a sure touchdown before an underthrow back to the defender.

DT Sione Fua UP

Fua got into the backfield and made a play at least a half dozen times today. He’s tough to block, big and sneaky quick. He fits a 3-4 or a 4-3 as a tackle. He moves into the 3rd round range after a good day today.

G Clint Boling DOWN

He had one nice block, but overall got beat today. He played guard and wasn’t able to handle the quicker interior linemen. If he can’t do that, there’s no way he can play his natural position of tackle.

CB Kendric Burney UP

This 5-9 corner definitely helped his stock this week. He was matched up with the 6-2 Hankerson a lot today and even though he was 5 inches shorter, he still was the only one able to keep Hankerson in check. He had a near pick. He made a few open field tackles. He played well on special teams. The announcers made an interesting comparison to Brandon Flowers. 5-9 180 guy with 4.5 speed and Flowers is one of the top 10 cornerbacks in the league now, already, after being drafted in the 2nd in 2008.

CB Jalil Brown UP

Didn’t get a ton of recognition today, but I think he played well. He got into good position. He should have found the ball and picked it off when Ponder had that first underthrow, but he was in good position. He’s a physical corner who did surprisingly well even with the no man press coverage rules and made a nice play in the end zone where you are allowed to press.

WR Ronald Johnson DOWN

Ran a few ugly routes that made it impossible for him to get open. He also didn’t look like he knew where he was going at all on special teams as a return man. He’s athletic, but plays like he doesn’t have a clue.

OLB Von Miller UP

Really impressed this week. He’s undersized, but when you play like him, who cares. He’s instinctual and doesn’t get fooled easily. He made a few nice tackles for loss. Even more impressive, he showed he could play the 4-3 as a non-rush linebacker. He played linebacker all day today and wasn’t allowed to rush the quarterback and he still made an impact stuffing the run and covering well.

FB Charles Clay UP

A bigger version of Dorin Dickerson from last year. I don’t know where this guy lines up, but I want him somewhere. He played running back, full back, tight end in college. He’s 6-3 235 and can make plays in the open field, like he did once today, so he could be an h-back, but he proved he could play fullback at a high level today.

QB Jake Locker DOWN

Not moving him down too much because I already had a low grade on him coming in, but he didn’t do himself any favors today. He was wildly inaccurate and showed more of his terrible footwork. He almost had Titus Young murdered on two separate occasions by throwing the ball too high. He should have been picked off in the end zone. He was asked on the sideline to explain his completion percentage in the 50s for his career and instead of saying something like numbers don’t tell the whole story and saying, I didn’t struggle in college he got this “oh shit” look on his face and said something about how he hasn’t been playing under center for very long. An excuse was not the right answer there. He reminds me of Jay Cutler, big arm, poor accuracy, loser in college, fast, athletic, they have similar size, similar college stats, similar college record, similar speed. Cutler went in the first and I think Locker still could too (Mike Shanahan in Washington, the same man who took Cutler 11th with Denver), but he’s not a good quarterback. He went 6-10 for 98 yards today, was all over the place with his accuracy, and his struggles can’t be blamed on his supporting cast like they could at Washington.

 

MLB Casey Matthews UP

He doesn’t have his brother’s size or speed, but he has everything else. His tenacity, his hustle, his heart, his instincts. Matthews made several nice plays in coverage today. He really was the quarterback of that defense. He really impressed me this week.

RB Derrick Locke UP

Goes down on first contact, but only if you can catch him. He’s extremely explosive, looking forward to seeing not just his 40, but his initial 10 yard speed. He gets low and he’s sneaky and he’s got great vision. Seems like a solid 3rd down back.

WR Jeremy Kerley UP

Worked the middle of the field like a pro today. He should be a solid slot receiver/return man for any team in the NFL. He’s worth a 3rd rounder.

CB Richard Sherman UP

I didn’t know much about him going into today, but I didn’t know much about Chris Cook going into Senior Bowl week last year and he ended up a 2nd rounder. He’s a former wide receiver, with a big body at 6-2, but he’s quick and he’s got good hip fluidity. He’ll be even better if he can man press. He blanketed receivers all day today, with the exception of a bad mistake at the end of the half where he should have given up a touchdown, except Andy Dalton has a girly arm.

DE Sam Acho UP

Measured up undersized at under 6-2 257, but worked his ass off all week and made several nice plays in the backfield today. He’s too quick for some tackles and he’s athletic enough to play standing up as a 3-4 rush linebacker. He burned Nate Solder today.

OT Nate Solder DOWN

I think this whole North offensive line proved to be overrated, but Solder in particular. He couldn’t keep anyone out of the backfield. He had a few nice second level blocks and he’s mobile, but if he’s going to be a left tackle, he’s got a lot of things to work on.

OT Anthony Costanzo DOWN

Also struggled, but that makes sense, because, for some reason, they put him at guard. He wasn’t as bad as Solder though and he was playing out of position so I’m not knocking him down as much as I am Solder.

DE Christian Ballard UP

Showing more and more of his natural athleticism, he has excellent chase speed for a 285 pound lineman. I think he proved he can play 4-3 left end, in addition to 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end. He played 4-3 left end in college, but he might be athletic enough to do the same in the pros.

QB Greg McElroy UP

He showed the strongest arm of any South quarterback and his footwork is like watching an instructional video. All that time in a Pro Style offense coached by a Pro Style coach in Nick Saban helped. I think he’s better than John Parker Wilson and should be a solid backup as a late round pick.

MLB Colin McCarthy UP

Not very athletic, but he made a ton of plays today. He seems best off as a 4-3 middle linebacker. He’s got an amazing motor. He gets after the ball. He’s a defensive leader and a tremendous special teamer. He should make an impact on an NFL roster as a rookie as a 4th or 5th rounder.

CB Shareece Wright UP

Reportedly a film rat, Wright looked the part today. He looked prepared for everything the offense had. He covered routes very well. He’s even better in man press, which he didn’t even get to do today. I pegged him as a sleeper going in and he didn’t disappoint.

DE Pierre Allen DOWN

Didn’t do anything except commit several penalties.

NT Phil Taylor UP

Cemented his status as the #1 nose tackle in this class with an amazing day against the North’s offensive line. I know he’s 337 pounds, but he doesn’t move like it.

RB Noel Devine DOWN

Good if he’s not touched, which, in the NFL, doesn’t happen very often. He doesn’t his Locke’s vision, explosion, or shiftiness either.

OT Derek Sherrod UP

Sherrod took advantage of Costanzo and Solder struggling and really showed himself to be a potential first rounder. He played better than any tackle in this game.

CB Curtis Brown UP

Reminding me why I had a first round grade on him before a down senior year, Brown made a bunch of plays. He’s physical, but also athletic.

QB Ricky Stanzi UP

Struggled early, but appeared to be the most NFL ready quarterback in this game. He has above average arm strength, good footwork thanks to a Pro Style offense, and he led a couple good drives.

DE Brooks Reed UP

The energizer battery. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not somewhere jumping up and down right now. He has so much energy. He’s not particularly athletic, but he’s a feisty player and he can play  both a 3-4 and a 4-3. He wrecked havoc for the South today.

QB Andy Dalton DOWN

Terrible arm strength, worst in this game. He doesn’t have a shot at completing anything more than 25 yards downfield. He had the worst day of any quarterback in this game.

OT DeMarcus Love DOWN

Couldn’t handle Ryan Kerrigan at all. Kerrigan blew past him on several occasions, causing a sack and a hold.

RB Bilal Powell UP

He rushed for 50 yards on 10 carries. He’s a one cut and go type player, but he doesn’t go down on first contact. He’s got good hands as well. He could be a starter in this league someday.

TE Mike McNeill DOWN

Didn’t do much except drop a pass for an interception. He didn’t help himself at all this week.

OLB KJ Wright UP

Wright caught the interception off the hands of McNeill. He impressed in coverage and is a big body against the run as well. Commentators suggested he could be a 3-4 rush linebacker if he bulked up some. At the very least, he’s a solid 4-3 SAM linebacker.

QB Colin Kaepernick UP

He was inconsistent, but he’s a project worth taking on in the 3rd round. He’s got a good arm and his weird delivery is more Philip Rivers than Byron Leftwich. He reminds me a bit of Josh Freeman, definitely a poor man’s version, but the comparisons are there.

WR Dane Sanzenbacher UP

Led the North with 5 catches, all of which were on nice slants or curls. He’s a possession slot type receiver and needs to bulk up some to handle hits over the middle in the NFL, but he’s quicker than fast and has great hands. He’s a potential early day 3 guy.

TE Lee Smith DOWN

Had a drop and a penalty today. He’s a good blocker, but nothing else.

OT James Carpenter DOWN

He might just be a guard. He really struggled on the outside today against faster guys.

RB Da’Rel Scott UP

First he had a nice special teams play, then he had a few nice carries and never went down on first contact. He runs bigger than he is and he has good quickness. He runs a bit upright, but he’s still a decent mid/late round guy. He took a screen pass 34 yards.

RB Roy Helu DOWN

An upright runner, who didn’t break tackles. He also displayed poor vision. He only carried twice, but I didn’t like what I saw either time.

WR Titus Young DOWN

Explosive, yes, but I think he’s a bit immature. He committed a terrible offensive pass interference penalty, he dances around too much on returns for no reason, he could have come down with both throws that Locker threw to him. He didn’t absorb the hit well on either. He dropped a lot of passes in practice as well.

DE Pernell McPhee UP

Very active today, good chase speed, and had a strip sack of Jake Locker, who is a fast quarterback.

G Steve Schilling DOWN

Another North offensive lineman that couldn’t protect. He was burned on back to back plays by Jarvis Jenkins and Phil Taylor.

CB DeMarcus Van Dyke UP

Had several nice moments in coverage. He’s a project, but he’s very athletic. He needs to bulk up, but with 32 inch arms, he has room to do so.

OLB Lawrence Wilson DOWN

Couldn’t fight through blocker at all. He’s a bit too small and unathletic.

 

2011 Week 4 Picks

 

Last week overall: 11-5

Last week ATS: 13-3 (+2670/+27 units)

Overall picks: 31-17 (.646)

ATS Picks: 25-21-2 (+1080/+15 units)

Lock picks: 3-0

Upset picks: 4-8 (-165)

What a week! I’ve never had a week like that. I dropped 3 games all week, 2 2 unit games and a 3 unit game. I won my other 34 units to put me up 27 units and $2670 ($2635 if you include money line upset picks) for the week. If you stuck with me through 2 down weeks to start the season, I’m really happy I could come through for you. I wish I could guarantee that every week, but I can’t. No one can. But I’m still really happy to be out of the red in a big way. Let’s make it two in a row. Here we go.

Chicago Bears 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: Carolina +7 (-120) 3 units (+300)

The Chicago Bears have looked like crap these past few weeks. Week 2, they allowed 6 sacks and countless quarterback pressures to the Saints without Will Smith. Then they average less than a yard per carry against Green Bay, who focused more on stuffing the run than getting after Cutler and still managed to pressure Cutler consistently. That loss to the Packers last week had to hurt. That’s now 4 times in just over a year they’ve been outplayed by the Packers, who are clearly the team to beat in this division.

Now the Bears could feel they need to beat Detroit next week to even make the playoffs. They’re not going to be worried about lowly Carolina. Since 2008, favorites are 43-66 the week before a divisional matchup they will be underdogs in. It’s safe to say Chicago will be an underdog at Detroit next week, so this applies and it makes sense. You’re not going to give 100% for an inferior opponent with a superior divisional opponent coming up next on your schedule.

Meanwhile, I think Carolina is that one team that will have a much better ATS record than straight up record this year. Last year it was the Lions and to some extent the Rams. This year I think it’s the Panthers. They’re never out of a game with Cam Newton at quarterback, but since they’re probably a 5 win team, Vegas is going to make them 7+ point underdogs fairly often. They’re underdogs of 7 here against a Chicago team that isn’t even that good. Besides, Jay Cutler really struggles as a favorite of 7+ in his career, going 5-9 ATS in that situation. This team is just a mess right now. I’m definitely not betting on them.

Buffalo Bills 20 Cincinnati Bengals 12

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3 (-120) 1 unit (-120)

All hail the Buffalo Bills! After defeating the New England Patriots 34-31, the Bills are one of 3 undefeated teams in the league with the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. I felt the Bills would give New England a game because they are a talented team and because that game meant more to them than it did to the Patriots, but I didn’t expect them to straight up win.

That win last week had to be huge for the Bills. Not only did they snap a 15 game losing streak against New England, they proved to the world that they are for real. They were 9 point home dogs coming into that game. They weren’t getting any respect despite their 2-0 record. However, after winning big games like that, teams tend to be flat the next week. The Bills gave 110% last week. That kind of effort is going to be very tough to maintain against the lowly Bengals.

The Bills have been my most heavily bet team this year. I bet 5 on them week 1, 4 week 2, and 4 week 3, and they’re 2-1 ATS with a ½ point spread loss against Oakland. This week, I’m not making a big play on them. They’re going to be in cruise control mode this week. They no longer have something huge to prove and they no longer are facing a formidable opponent. However, that doesn’t mean I’m going for the Bengals. The Bengals suck. I don’t think they can win straight up at home and 1 and 2 point losses are very rare in this league. If San Francisco can beat them at home, so can the Bills even if they’re flat. I say worst case scenario, this is a push, but I’m not betting heavily on Buffalo either.

Cleveland Browns 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Cleveland -1 (-110) 2 units (-220)

When does the schedule get hard for Cleveland? They’ve played Cincinnati (1-2), Indianapolis (0-3), and Miami (0-3) so far. They’ve played 3 teams with a combined 1-8 record. That one win, by the way, was against Cleveland week 1. Now they get Tennessee. Yes, Tennessee did beat Baltimore week 2, but Baltimore was flat off a huge win against Pittsburgh. Tennessee had trouble with Denver last week and could have lost if Denver hadn’t decided to go for it on 4th and inches on the goal line with the lead.

Besides, this line says that Tennessee is 2 points better than Cleveland. I think these teams are pretty even. Tennessee could be especially flat and/or have trouble moving the ball after losing Kenny Britt for the season, which was confirmed by MRI Monday. That’s a huge loss and considering Chris Johnson decided to suck this year, Britt might have been their only offensive playmaker. I like Cleveland to take advantage of that and win here at home in a close one.

Detroit Lions 31 Dallas Cowboys 17 Upset Pick (+105)

Pick against spread: Detroit +1 (-110) 2 units (+200)

I wonder if Dallas will get their act together this week. Phil Costa botched 4 snaps last week and Kevin Ogletree consistently ran the wrong route. Tony Romo is really not getting a lot of help. His offensive line is so inexperienced. Plus, Miles Austin is out and Ogletree, his replacement, sucks. Besides, Felix Jones is nursing a shoulder injury. He’ll play this week again, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he once again didn’t get a ton of touches. They’re being cautious with him. His backups, Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray, couldn’t do anything against Washington last week.

If Dallas doesn’t get their act together this week, they’re in a lot of trouble. The Lions pass rush is one of the best in the league. Romo still has a bad rib and the Cowboys offensive line can’t block a plastic bag. If they get early pressure on him, Romo could start making poor decisions with the ball just to get rid of it. I don’t have any trends here to support it, but I really feel like Detroit is the right side. I think they win and improve to 4-0 this week in Dallas.

Houston Texans 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +4 (-115) 2 units (-230)

This is an interesting one. Normally getting points with Ben Roethlisberger is a good thing. He’s 14-8 ATS as an underdog in his career, but I bet against him as an underdog week 1 against the Ravens and it panned out for me. The Steelers aren’t in a good situation here. Their offensive line is extremely banged up and Houston can definitely take advantage of that. Wade Phillips calls blitzes more than maybe any other coordinator in the league.

Besides, they’re coming off a road win of 3 or fewer. Teams are 108-127 ATS in that situation the next week, which isn’t damning, but it’s not good either. I’m going with Pittsburgh and hoping this is a field goal game. I like Houston to win, but getting Roethlisberger as an underdog is too good to pass on here especially with the line being higher than 3.

New Orleans Saints 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against spread: New Orleans +7.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)

This is one of those games where I’m going against the trends. The trends say Jacksonville is good as a home dog of 7+, going 2-0 ATS in the Jack Del Rio era in that situation. That’s only 2 games, but they’re 10-7 ATS as home dogs of any amount. Meanwhile, in the Sean Payton era, the Saints are 2-4 ATS as road favorites of 7+. However, the Saints are an offensive machine. Including the playoffs, they’ve scored 30+ in 9 of their last 12 games. Can the Jaguars score the 23 or 24+ points need to cover if the Saints score 30 or 31+. I don’t like their chances and I don’t like their chances of slowing the Saints’ offense, even on the road. I’m making a small play on the favorites here.

 

Minnesota Vikings 13 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Minnesota -2 (-115) 1 unit (-115)

Chiefs. Vikings. The toilet bowl. Neither of these teams has won a game. One of them will win a game here and improve their combined record to 1-7. I really didn’t know who to pick here. The Vikings are a terrible team who doesn’t deserve to be favorites on the road, but at the same time, the Vikings have jumped out to early leads in all 3 of their games and blown them all three times. However, if they jump out to an early lead here, I highly doubt Matt Cassel will be able to lead the Chiefs back. There’s a difference between him, and Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman, and Matt Stafford, the first 3 quarterbacks the Vikings faced. One trend, Minnesota is coming off of a home loss of 3 or less, which means they’ll be extra motivated this week. Teams are 126-98 ATS in this situation since 2002. I’m taking the Vikings for 1 unit.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco +9 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Michael Vick is going to play in this game, but I don’t know if that’s as good as it sounds for the Eagles. They’re not going to give 100% effort against the lowly 49ers in this game unless they feel the need to rally around a backup quarterback. As long as Vick’s in the game, the 49ers will have the emotional edge. This game will mean more to them. Besides, Vick is playing terrible right now. He’s afraid to leave the pocket. He still can’t read blitzes and he could easily get hurt again this week, especially since San Francisco can get after the quarterback.

Besides, San Francisco leads the NFC in turnover margin. The Eagles are last in turnover margin and yet they’re favored here by 9 points. This would be a 4 or 5 unit pick, except for two things. One, the 49ers are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast. However, they did win in this situation last week and they’re in their 2nd consecutive road game, normally a lucrative betting situation (136-92 ATS since 2008). Teams are 60-49 ATS in the 2nd straight game as a road dog after winning the first game straight up.

Also, the Eagles are good in the Andy Reid era off of a loss. This is a situation they’re 20-14 ATS in since Reid took over in 1999. However, I still like San Francisco’s chances to hang within a touchdown here. The Eagles have lost 5 of their last 6 games, including the playoffs. They’re very overvalued by Vegas.

St. Louis Rams 23 Washington Redskins 17 Upset Pick (+110)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1 (+100) 2 units (-200)

There are conflicting situations here. On one hand, St. Louis is coming off a 21+ point ATS loss. They’re going to be playing for their dignity here. Teams in this situation are 159-125 ATS since 2002. However, Washington is coming off of a close road loss and in their 2nd straight road game a situation teams are 45-34 in. I’m picking St. Louis here just because of the line. This line says the Redskins are 4 points better than the Rams and I don’t think it’s the case.

New York Giants 28 Arizona Cardinals 24

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1 (-110) 2 units (+200)

I thought the Giants were going to struggle in the first half of the season for the first time in the Tom Coughlin era this year after they lost to Washington in the opener. However, after beating St. Louis and Philadelphia, they’ve proven that false. They’re still a great team in the first half of the season. I like their chances to go into Arizona and make it 3 in a row. Their 4-2 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era after beating the Eagles and 13-6 ATS after a win against anyone as an underdog.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -5.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Arizona was -3 at Seattle last week and now Atlanta is -4.5. Huh? I know this line is -5.5 here because it’s a full point higher on Bodog than anywhere else, but everywhere else it’s -4.5. For my purposes, I don’t see much difference between -4.5 and -5.5. There aren’t a lot of 5 point games in this league and I still think Atlanta is being undervalued this week.

Why would they be undervalued? Well, people know they suck on the road and Seattle is good at home. That could have something to do with it. However, in the Mike Smith era the Falcons are 3-0 on the West Coast. They blew out Seattle last year in Seattle. Mike Smith is also 14-2 ATS off a loss with the Falcons and the Falcons are in their 2nd straight road game, a situation teams are 136-92 ATS in since 2008. In the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in that situation, 5-0 off a loss.

Green Bay Packers 35 Denver Broncos 13 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: Green Bay -13 (-110) 1 unit (+100)

Green Bay hasn’t played one truly dominant game yet this season and they’re 3-0. I wouldn’t want to be Denver coming to Lambeau this week. Denver sucks and though I normally don’t like betting on heavy favorites, I don’t think Green Bay has much trouble winning by multiple touchdowns this week. That’s all I have to say about that.

New England Patriots 38 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5 (-110) 5 units (+500)

Last week I bet pretty heavily on Baltimore as favorite in St. Louis because they were coming off a loss as a favorite and John Harbaugh is great in that situation as a coach. Bill Belichick is even better. Since being hired in 2000, BB is 16-9 ATS after a loss as a favorite. Even more important, he’s 14-5 ATS off a loss as a favorite if you exclude 2000, and 2008, the years someone other than Tom Brady was his starting quarterback. The Brady/Belichick combination is deadly off of a loss as a favorite. Straight up, they’re 15-3 and their wins are by an average of almost two touchdowns per game.

Belichick is also 31-18 ATS after a loss of any kind, 22-12 with Brady as his starting quarterback. They’re also 26-8 straight up off of a loss with Brady. No one is better than the Patriots off a loss. I normally don’t bet really heavily on a favorite of 3+. I’m doing that this week.

I also feel we’re getting excellent line value here. New England was -9 last week at Buffalo. Now they’re -4.5 at Oakland? Buffalo beat Oakland. I know the Patriots didn’t look all that great last week and the Raiders won, but I feel the Patriots are actually undervalued coming into this one and the Raiders are overvalued.

The Patriots lost a game last week that meant more to the Bills than it did to them. The Raiders won a game last week that meant more to them than the opponent Jets. The Jets were looking forward to Baltimore and New England in consecutive weeks coming up. The Raiders were looking to beat a quality team. That won’t be the case this week. This game will mean a lot to the Raiders, but it’ll mean a lot more to New England, who hates losing more than any other team in the league, as shown by their record after a loss, especially after a loss as a favorite, in the Belichick/Brady era.

San Diego Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against spread: Miami +7 (-105) 4 units (-420)

Different year, same early season Chargers. They lost in New England week 2 despite fairly even yardage totals and then they barely beat the currently 0-3 Vikings and 0-3 Chiefs at home despite dominating the yardage totals. I don’t see why the 0-3 Dolphins can’t hang around as well. I mentioned last week I love betting on the Dolphins on the road. They’re 17-8 ATS on the road in the Tony Sparano era. That trend gets even better in their 2nd straight road game. They’re 6-2 ATS in this situation since Sparano took over.

Besides, the early season Chargers should never be laying 7+. They’re just too mistake prone. One final thing, this line opened at -9 and was at -9 for a while and has dropped 2 full points since. The majority of the money was on Miami at -9 and Vegas changed the line pretty significantly. They don’t want people betting on Miami. For that reason, you should bet on Miami. I love Miami this week. The only huge difference between -9 and -7 is that a touchdown game pushes, which I’m fine with. There aren’t a lot of games decided by 8 or 9 points in this league.

Baltimore Ravens 16 New York Jets 14

Pick against spread: NY Jets +4 (-115) 3 units (-330)

The Jets didn’t look very good last week in Oakland, but that game didn’t mean a whole lot to them with Baltimore and New England next on their schedule, meanwhile the Ravens looked awesome last week trying to avenge a loss as a favorite in Tennessee the week before. Because of that, I think this line is a little skewed. These teams are about equal, but Vegas seems to have added another point to this line to make it -4 after last week.

Teams that lose as road favorites and then are road underdogs of more than 3 the next week are 19-12 ATS since 2002. This makes sense. A team is road favorites. That means they’re good. They lose straight up, so Vegas makes them underdogs of 3.5+ or more on the road the next week, which means Vegas sees them as inferior to another team, even though this might not necessarily be the case. They were good enough to be road favorites the week before right? Also, teams in their 2nd straight road game tend to cover. Teams are 136-95 ATS in this situation since 2008. The 2nd straight road game is typically not as tough as the first one. Besides, the Jets play a lot of field goal games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against spread: Indianapolis (-110) 4 units (+400)

That awkward moment when the Colts are scheduled to have back-to-back nationally televised games and Peyton Manning doesn’t play in either. Actually, we all got a treat last week. Even though Manning didn’t play, the Colts’ defense played well enough to keep the Colts in the game as double digit home underdogs. Now they Colts are double digit road underdogs in Tampa Bay and I have reason to believe they can keep this one close as well.

The Colts are coming off of a close home loss. You’d think this would deflate them for their next game, but since 2002, teams are 126-98 ATS in this situation. Also, the Buccaneers just aren’t a team that can blow people out. Since the start of last season, they’ve won 12 games. 4 of them were by 11 or more points (what they’ll need to cover this spread). Those 4 games, Carolina twice, Seattle on the road, and San Francisco.

Are the Colts that bad? I don’t think so. They can still get after the quarterback. Curtis Painter will be starting at quarterback for them this week, but I think he plays a little better than he did last week in relief of Collins because he’ll have a whole week of practice to get ready for the Buccaneers. One final trends, teams in their 2nd straight game as 10+ point underdogs are 31-23 ATS since 2002. The Colts have to be feeling disrespected right now.

Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest (for anyone playing): New England -4, Indianapolis +10, Atlanta -4.5, Miami +7, San Francisco +9.5 (8-7 on the season)

 

Abram Elam Cowboys

 

Elam is a pretty marginal safety, but he’s definitely an upgrade over Alan Ball, arguably the worst starting safety in the league last year. The market for players has collapsed lately and players are being signed for cheap and given that even 2.5 million over 1 year for Elam seems like a lot. Gerald Sensabaugh is their other safety and he just got 2.5 million. He’s much better than Elam.

Grade: B