Defensive End/3-4 Defensive End

East Carolina

6-3 288

40 time: 4.75

Draft board overall prospect rank: #134

Draft board 3-4 defensive end rank: #12

Overall rating: 63*

            4/8/10: CJ Wilson is one of the more under the radar players in this draft class. He didn’t have a great statistic season last year in terms of sacks, but he got some good pressure on the quarterback consistently and totaled 10.5 tackles for loss to go with 5.5 sacks. He finished the season strong showing the flashes of brilliance that earned him 10.5 sacks as a junior in 2008. He’s strong against the run at 290, with the potential to be even stronger given how fit he is, and given his long arms and strong motor. He has very underrated athleticism with 4.75 speed at 6-3 288 and can make plays in space. He can drop into coverage very well for his size and can guard some running backs for a little bit. His size and speed allow him to play multiple position. He could play a 3-4 as an end, but I think he’d fit best in a 4-3 as a left end who moves inside in nickel sets or on clear passing downs. He hurries the quarterback with great consistency and has done that from multiple spots on the line and he possesses a great bull rush. He is very good at freeing himself up for the tackle and put together a very solid amount of tackles for his size over the last 2 years with 116. He sheds blocks well and chases well. He lacks an elite first step or great explosiveness off of the line. Wilson is probably looking at the late 3^rd or early 4^th round after his strong combine performance and he is as underrated in the draft community as his school, East Carolina, which, in addition to producing Chris Johnson a few years ago, had one of the best NFL ready lines in the NCAAs last year.

NFL Comparison: Jarvis Green

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

S Justin Bethel UP

Bethel is a bigger defensive back at 6-0 200 and is probably a safety long term, but he showed some good athleticism today. His 40 time of 4.53 wasn’t amazing, but his 10 yard split of 1.56 was very good, as was his 39.5 inch vertical and 10 foot 11 broad jump.

CB Ron Brooks UP

Brooks was kind of buried on the depth chart at LSU (not his fault with Morrris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu ahead of him), but he played well in a depth cornerback role and had a great day at The Combine today with one of the faster times, 4.35, as well as a 10 foot broad jump and a 38 inch vertical. He also looked good in the drills. He could be an interesting late round flier.

CB Leonard Johnson DOWN

Small and slow is a bad combination. Johnson isn’t tiny at 5-10 196, but a 4.65 40 does hurt. His draft stock was trending up into the 2^nd round after a strong Senior Bowl, but now he could be back into the 3^rd round.

CB D’Anton Lynn DOWN

Lynn had the worst 40 time of the bunch with a 4.72 and a poor 1.63 10 yard split. He also had a mere 9 foot 3 broad jump and 31.5 inch vertical. He’s a bigger cornerback at 6-0 204 and Mike Mayock says he’s faster in pads on the field, but for a prospect already in the late rounds, this doesn’t help.

S Sean Richardson UP

Richardson is one of the bigger safeties in the bunch at 6-2 216, but he showed surprising athleticism with a 4.47 40, a 10 foot 8 broad jump, and a 38.5 inch vertical. He looks like a mid to late rounder.

CB Josh Robinson UP

Josh Robinson was the only player this year to run in the 4.2s, running a 4.29, which surprised Mike Mayock. Robinson was a surprise early declare that isn’t on a lot of people’s radars right now, but as more tape of him is watched over time, he’ll prove to be a 2^nd or 3^rd rounder. This 40 time definitely gives people even more reason to go back and watch the tape. He also led defensive backs with a 11 foot 1 broad jump and added a 38.5 inch vertical as well.

CB Coty Sensabaugh UP

Sensabaugh was another one with surprising speed, running a 4.37. He was also above average in the broad jump with 10 foot 2 and above average in the vertical with 37 inches. I thought he was underrated coming in and he’s moving even further up my board now.

S Harrison Smith UP

In a weak safety class, Harrison Smith seems to be locked into the #2 spot. Mike Mayock loves him and Deion Sanders said that he looked like a cornerback in the drills, despite being one of the bigger defensive backs at 6-2 213. His 40 wasn’t amazing or anything at 4.56, but he dominated the drills. He’s got a lot of good tape and gets an unfair and untrue knock for being unathletic. He’s worth a 2^nd rounder and Mayock suggests someone could pull the trigger on him in the late 1^st even.

CB Ryan Steed DOWN

Ryan Steed had some positive momentum coming into The Combine after a strong Senior Bowl, but slow and small is not a good combination. At 5-10 195, he ran a 4.69. This won’t kill his stock or anything, but I think it halts the day 2 talk for now.

S Phillip Thomas DOWN

Phillip Thomas was a surprise early declare. He’s got great ball skills, but no true position. The 5-11 198 pounder played safety in college, but is undersized for that position in the pros. He didn’t help himself at The Combine. First he ran in the 4.7s. He fixed that with a 4.59, which is still not great, but the first 4.7 time will raise some eyebrows. His vertical was also only 33 inches.

S Christian Thompson UP

Thompson is a small schooler from South Carolina State, but he ran a nice time with a 4.47 at 6-0 212. He also looked good in the drills. He put himself on the radar today.

Quarterback 

Central Michigan

6-3 228

40 time: 4.66

Draft board overall prospect rank: #166

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #13

Overall rating: 57*

1/30/10: I really didn’t like him going into this game, but he proved to me that his arm is a lot stronger than I lot and a lot more accurate on deep balls than I thought. He had a lot of nice deep throws, which surprised me because he comes from an offense that focuses on short throws. His footwork was still bad and he messed up a few easy throws, but he has some potential in the 4th or 5th round.

7/29/09: Some self proclaimed “experts” are calling LeFevour a sleeper prospect. Mel Kiper, who I have a ton of respect for, is calling LeFevour a prospect on the level of Tebow and Bradford. I’m going to be controversial. I wouldn’t use any more than a 7^th round pick on LeFevour and that’s only if I had absolutely no other depth needs. He’ll probably go in the mid rounds, 3^rd to 5^th, but if I were picking there, he wouldn’t be on my radar unless I ran a team that used a college style offense. LeFevour is getting noticed by scouts as a player who can run and throw with great touch. However, all I see is a spread offense quarterback, playing in the MAC, who has a weak arm. He put up very average stats last season where it counts, YPA, 7.4. YPA is the most effective statistic, and this has been proven, in determining whether or not a player has a good pro future. He has a poor YPA, for a pro prospect, against average competition, in a very simple offense that teams simply don’t use in the pros. He has a very weak arm, good accuracy on short passes, but a weak arm. His footwork is awful. I say about almost every quarterback that I scout that a quarterback’s footwork needs work. Well, this guy’s is just plain awful. He has little to no experience playing under center and in a pocket. He’s Alex Smith 2.0 at best. He is mobile and good at throwing, or at least checking down, on the run, but there aren’t very many quarterbacks who can make a living out of that. Scouts like his speed. However, his 40 is going to be in the mid 4.7s and he averaged 3.5 yards per carry last season, as a quarterback, playing from the spread. He runs far more than necessary, in fact, it looks like his first instinct is to run, which is bad for a quarterback. Running should only be a 2^nd option. You don’t see guys like Ben Roethlisberger taking off with the ball, without making reads , moving way outside of the pocket, scrambling unnecessarily, and throwing without planting his feet. Big Ben, and Florida’s Tim Tebow who I like, take the snap, make the read, and then make the decision to move with the ball or plow forward when it’s the right decision. LeFevour doesn’t do that. He’s also injury prone on top of all of this. Now, this isn’t to say that I hate him. I was in a bit of a bad mood while writing this which may make it seem like I think this guy is garbage. I might give him an invite to training camp as a 4^th quarterback, which is more than a can say about the majority of the players in college football. He could fit as a backup in a gimmick system or maybe play some sort of wildcat, though I’m not sure he’s fast enough. He has good touch on short throws, but overall I see him as a huge project, like the kind of project that will have offensive coordinators pulling their hair out. Unless you want a bald offensive coordinator, NFL teams should stay away from him. He may have a future in the UFL or CFL though.

NFL Comparison: Marques Tuiasosopo

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Defensive End 

Georgia

6-3 266

40 time: 4.72

Draft board overall prospect rank: #8

Draft board defensive end rank: #1

Overall rating: 91*

1/21/10: Great combination of size and speed, and more important an excellent motor and initial explosiveness. He had 12 sacks this year and was also strong against the run at 275 pounds. The only thing stopping him from being a top ten pick lock is the fact that he won’t transition well to a 3-4 scheme, though I wouldn’t be surprised if a team tried to convert him to a 3-4 rush linebacker, though that’d be a mistake. He still has a good shot of going in the top ten and I think he has top ten talent at a possession of huge value in the NFL. 

                11/18/09: Derrick Morgan is my top pass rusher in a weak pass rushing class. He has a great combination of size, physicality, and agility, quickness, and speed. He has a good pass rushing arsenal as well and has 12 sacks this season, improving on last year’s decent total. He gets into the backfield a lot and wreaks havoc with his combination of size and speed. He has average straight line speed, but is a crafty pass rusher and that makes up for that. He has good size against the run and isn’t blocked back easily. He has size to play on the left side and also the agility and mobility to play on the right side against left tackles. He has an excellent motor and has still a lot of upside as a 20 year old junior. He has good leverage and a good initial burst off the line which helps in both pass rushing and run blocking. He plays controlled and does not overpursue. He uses his hands well and has good extension on his arms to push off of offensive linemen to force holds or double teams. He doesn’t disengage from blocks that well and once a good, strong offensive lineman locks onto him, he doesn’t break away easily and he doesn’t have a great second burst or recovery after being knocked down. He is sluggish in coverage and doesn’t fit a 3-4 scheme as a rush linebacker for that reason and also because he is not fast enough. Rush linebackers are normally speed rushers, while Morgan is more well rounded as a pass rusher. He is as close to a first round lock as any defensive end and could be the first defensive end off the board, which may mean he’s a top ten pick when it’s all said and done because of the need for pass rushers in the NFL.

NFL Comparison: Justin Tuck

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Wide Receiver

Pittsburgh

6-1 226

40 time: 4.40

Draft board overall prospect rank: #123

Draft board wide receiver rank: #15

Overall rating: 64*

            4/1/10: Dorin Dickerson is possibly the most puzzling NFL Draft prospect of this year, and, for that reason, also the most interesting. He played pretty much every position on the field for Pittsburgh playing linebacker, fullback, tight end, and wide receiver. He also operated the scoreboard, served as assistant coach, was the mascot, and worked the hot dog stand but I don’t think he projects long term at any of those positions on a professional level. In all seriousness, Dickerson has played a ton of positions. However, after measuring in at 6-1 226 at the Combine, he wasn’t going to be big enough to play any of those positions in the NFL, with the exception of wide receiver, where he spent the least amount of time. There were also major concerns about his speed. He had talent, making the All-American team as a tight end in 2009, but there were major questions about his position and, consequently, whether or not he’d be drafted. After running a 4.40 at 6-1 226, he got rid of concerns about his speed. He didn’t look that fast on tape last year, though I knew he was fast for a tight end, which is a bit concerning, maybe he has good track speed and not good football speed, but that definitely showed his athleticism and his ability to play wide receiver longterm. He definitely has the hands to do so, catching 49 passes for 529 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, all the while playing in a Pro Style offense, and running Pro Style routes, but he’s certainly a project. He’ll probably be taken in the 3^rd or 4^th round range by some time who can afford to waste a pick on a possible future special teamer, but he can be a very dangerous offensive weapon at wide receiver in the future if he can convert to the position easily. He’s a very underrated blocker and an amazing blocker for his size so he’ll have a role on special teams early and as a depth receiver, on run plays, but I am optimistic about his upside.

NFL Comparison: Robert Ferguson

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

It was reported earlier in the week that Washington would sign Royal for 2 years, 12 million, but that didn’t happen. This is a more reasonable deal for him, 13.5 million over 3 with 6 million guaranteed. He’s been inconsistent in his career, but has the upside of an above average slot receiver. He’s also already an above average return man, which the Chargers need.

Grade: B

QB RB WR TE DEF Top 100

1. Antonio Gates (San Diego)

Antonio Gates had 50 catches for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, good enough for 2^nd among tight ends. The kicker, he did it in 10 games. Over 16 games, that’s 80 catches for 1251 yards and 16 touchdowns. I’m not going to predict that for several reasons. For one, no tight end does that. Hell, no wide receivers do that. Two, he’s still hurting and he’s no lock to play 16 games. In fact, I’d bet he won’t. Also, Vincent Jackson is back and that will cut into his targets, especially in the end zone. Vincent Jackson being out was a huge part of the reason why he had 10 touchdowns in 10 games.

Projection: 67 catches, 1030 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (169 pts, 236 PPR)

2. Jason Witten (Dallas)

Witten has at least 80 catches for at least 950 yards in each of the last 4 seasons and at least 94 catches for 1000 yards in 3 of the last 4. Tony Romo and Jason Garrett, the new Cowboys coach, loves him, just ask Terrell Owens. He’s not a huge end zone threat, though he did have 9 touchdowns in 2010, but he’s still one of the top tight ends in the league.

Projection: 90 catches, 1010 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (137 pts, 227 PPR)

3. Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

Stability at the quarterback position, as well as a better offensive coach, should improve the 56 catches for 914 yards he had in 2010. I’m not sure about his 7 touchdowns though, however. Braylon Edwards has been brought in and he’s a great goal line guy. I don’t know if there’s enough touchdowns to go around for Davis to have a high touchdown season like he did in 2009 (13).

Projection: 62 catches, 950 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (137 pts, 199 PPR)

4. Owen Daniels (Houston)

8/28/11: The case for Owen Daniels: In 2007, his 2^nd season in the league, he caught 63 passes for 768 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2008, he caught 70 passes for 862 yards and 2 touchdowns. In 2009, he caught 40 passes for 519 yards and 5 touchdowns in 8 games before tearing his ACL. Stretch that over 16 games and you get 80 catches for 1038 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2010, he came back too quickly from his ACL tear, struggled for 7 games and then missed 5 before finishing strong. In his final 4 games, he caught 22 passes for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 88 catches for 1084 yards and 8 touchdowns.

The Texans rely heavily on the tight end. In Daniels absence last season, career backup Joel Dressen caught 19 passes for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns in 5 games. Combine that with Daniels’ stats from his final 5 games and you get 41 catches for 546 yards and 4 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 72 catches for 971 yards and 7 touchdowns. Daniels should be the #2 option in Houston behind Andre Johnson and, by all indications, is due for a huge season should he play 16 games.

He’s healthy now and seems to have put that ACL tear behind him. The Texans gave him a 4 year deal in the offseason and say they plan to feature him a lot in their offense. In the Texans’ 3^rdpreseason game, Daniels was targeted a team high 8 times by Schaub. He’s healthy, he’s talented, and he’s a popular target of Schaub. There’s definitely upside here and I’d say he’s more likely to play 16 games than he is to miss a game.

I’m going to be conservative with his projection. I’d say he gets slightly better than 72 catches for 971 yards and 7 touchdowns should he play all 16 games. Remember, in 2009, he was on pace for 80 catches 1000+ yards and 10 touchdowns. In the last 4 games of last season, he was on pace for similar numbers. Hell, the Houston tight end spot in the last 9 games of last season (4 games of Daniels, 5 games of Dressen) was close to those numbers. I’d say 75 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns should he stay healthy, but I’m going to be conservative and say he plays 15 games. That still makes him my #4 tight end. 

Owen Daniels is great when he’s healthy, but he hasn’t been for the past 2 years. In 2008, he had 70 catches for 862 yards and 2 touchdowns. In 2007, he had 63 catches for 768 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those are the kinds of thing he can do when healthy. However, he’s a risk and I expect the Texans to be pass less this year with an improved defense and running game.

Projection: 70 catches, 940 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (136 pts, 206 PPR)

5. Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

Jermichael Finley was really on his way to breaking out as an elite tight end last year with 21 catches for 301 yards and 1 touchdown through 4 games before getting hurt. He’s still not quite 100%, but he has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him so it might not matter. I think he’ll still be a very, very good tight end this year.

Projection: 65 catches, 950 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (125 pts, 190 PPR)

6. Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

In the 2^nd half last year, Graham had 26 catches for 307 yards and 5 touchdowns in 8 games. Over 16, that’s 52 catches for 604 yards and 10 touchdowns. Now he’s actually the starter with Jeremy Shockey gone. His upside is off the charts.

Projection: 60 catches, 700 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (118 pts, 178 PPR)

7. Dallas Clark (Indianapolis)

8/25/11: If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Dallas Clark’s fantasy value. I think Clark will be hurt the most. Reggie Wayne still had very good numbers in the first half of 2008, though he is older now. Austin Collie is very, very talented player. Clark, however, had just 31 catches for 396 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first half in 2008 and that was without having Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stealing targets. 

8/20/11: Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers. 

Dallas Clark had 100 catches for 1106 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2009 and was on his way to another great season in 2010. He had 37 catches for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns through 6 games before getting hurt. He’ll be back this season and I wouldn’t worry too much about him because of how stable his quarterback position is. I don’t know if he’ll be 2009 good, but he’ll be good.

Projection: 70 catches, 800 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (116 pts, 186 PPR)

8. Rob Gronkowski (New England)

Aaron Hernandez was the tight end to own in New England to start the year, but Gronkowski changed that. In the 2^nd half, he had 28 catches for 398 yards and 7 touchdowns, good for 56 catches for 796 yards and 14 touchdowns over 16 games. However, he does worry me. The Patriots have so many options, including Aaron Hernandez at Gronkowski’s own position. Plus, his touchdown to reception rate was really high. That could fall, especially with Chad Ochocinco coming in.

Projection: 50 catches, 680 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (116 pts, 166 PPR)

9. Benjamin Watson (Cleveland)

8/21/11: Any stock up for McCoy is a stock is up for Watson, who was his favorite target last season. Little and Watson seem to be his best two targets by far so both have fantasy value.  

Watson caught 30 balls for 385 yards and a score in Colt McCoy’s 8 starts last year. Over 16 games, that’s 60 catches for 770 yards and 2 touchdowns. McCoy will be better in his 2^nd year so Watson have some fantasy value, but he doesn’t get into the end zone very often.

Projection: 67 catches, 770 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns (101 pts, 168 PPR)

10. Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

Brandon Pettigrew had 71 catches for 780 yards and 4 touchdowns last year. Matt Stafford is coming in so Pettigrew’s numbers should go up, especially his touchdowns, right? Wrong. In the 3 games Stafford played last year, Pettigrew was targeted 12 times (4 per game) and caught 6 passes (2 per game). In his other 13 games, he was targeted 91 times (7 per game) and caught 65 passes (5 per game). His touchdowns will be higher with Stafford back as he had 2 touchdowns in 3 games with Stafford, but his other stats will be down. Stafford just doesn’t check down like Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton did. 

Projection: 50 catches, 580 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (94 pts, 144 PPR)