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“Should” Mock 

 

Updated 4/16/10

 

 

99. St. Louis Rams- DE Austen Lane (Murray State)

Leonard Little probably won’t be brought back and even if he is, they’ll need a true left end of the future. Little is too old.

100. Detroit Lions- S Major Wright (Florida)

Their secondary was beyond awful last year. They need multiple upgrades in the secondary, including safety. Wright has 1^st round upside and would go in the 3^rd round most years so he could be a steal here if they can coach him up and bring out his natural athleticism.

101. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- OLB Roddrick Muckelroy (Texas)

The Buccaneers cut their two starting linebackers for 2008 last offseason and replaced them with the oft injured Angelo Crowell and a former safety. I wonder why they ranked dead last against the run last year.

102. Kansas City Chiefs- G Mike Johnson (Alabama)

Scott Pioli believes in building in the trenches so he’ll probably take a guard like Johnson, who fits the scheme perfectly, the in the 4^th round range to help get some more protection for Matt Cassel.

103. Washington Redskins- G Jon Asamoah (Illinois)

When you give up 43 sacks in a season, you need multiple offensive line upgrades in the offseason. Asamoah is a perfect fit as a left guard in Mike Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme.

104. Seattle Seahawks- CB Amari Spievey (Iowa)

Marcus Trufant committed the most penalties of any cornerback in the league last year. When you consider he missed 6 weeks with injuries, that’s even more embarrassing.

105. Philadelphia Eagles (via CLE)- CB Perrish Cox (Oklahoma State)

If the Eagles are being frugal, they’ll cut/trade Asante Samuel next offseason. They’ll want a replacement.

106. Oakland Raiders- WR David Gettis (Baylor)

David Gettis ran a 4.39 at 6-3 216 at his Pro Day. Putting a ton of stock into Pro day 40 times isn’t a smart idea, but then again, neither is drafting purely on height and 40 times and Al Davis has been doing that for years.

107. Buffalo Bills- WR Jacoby Ford (Clemson)

TO is gone and, after a rocky start to his career and an ACL tear, James Hardy is no sure bet either. Plus, they don’t have anyone with Ford’s speed on their roster.

108. Jacksonville Jaguars- WR Riley Cooper (Florida)

I know what you’re thinking. A 3^rd Florida Gator in as many picks? It could happen. After all, the Jags need to sell tickets and Gainesville is about a 75 minute drive from Jacksonville so stacking a team with familiar players isn’t a bad idea, unless they were huge reaches which they haven’t been. Plus, might as well get Tebow someone he’s familiar throwing to. Tebow and Cooper looked great together last year and, especially, at Florida’s Pro Day in March.

109. Chicago Bears- WR Dorin Dickerson (Pittsburgh)

The Bears need someone else other than Devin Hester to throw to so Jay Cutler doesn’t have to force it deep every single play like last year.

110. Miami Dolphins- RB Ben Tate (Auburn)

Ricky Williams is probably living on borrowed time as a running back of his age still running well. Ronnie Brown suffers a devastating injury every single year like clockwork and he’s a free agent next offseason. They also aren’t too happy about his recent DUI. If a running back like Tate is still there in the 4^th, they’ll pull the trigger.

111. Tennessee Titans- DT D’Anthony Smith (Louisiana Tech)

The Titans are still searching for a replacement for Albert Haynesworth. Given how much they like defensive line depth, drafting a defensive tackle in the 4^th makes a lot of sense.

112. Carolina Panthers- TE Jimmy Graham (Miami)

The Panthers probably want to get Matt Moore more than one upgrade in his receiving corps. Graham is extremely raw after only one season playing football (he was also a forward on the Miami basketball team), but he is really amazing scouts with his upside and how quickly he has improved this offseason so he could wind up being a steal at this point.

113. San Francisco 49ers- MLB Brandon Spikes (Florida)

All 4-3 teams crossed Spikes off of their draft board after he ran a 5.0+ at Florida’s Pro Day, except for Al Davis because he’s dead and doesn’t have a draft board. No 4-3 linebacker is that slow. The Niners could have a steal, however, with him as a 3-4 middle linebacker in the middle of the 4^th, assuming they can bring the most out of him. Mike Singletary thinks very highly of his ability to bring the most out of players, and rightfully so, which means Spikes makes a lot of sense here.

114. Denver Broncos- 3-4 DE Arthur Jones (Syracuse)

The Broncos seriously stank against the run last year in the 2nd half. Like seriously, I could smell it from here. Adding guys like Jamal Williams and Jarvis Green to their defensive front is a lot better than what they did last offseason (get random castoffs from the Niners and Browns), but they still need to focus on upgrading their defensive line through the draft. Unlike Robert Ayers, Jones is a natural fit at 3-4 defensive end and could be a huge steal if he beats the injuries and lives up to his potential.

115. New York Giants- CB AJ Jefferson (Fresno State)

If Aaron Ross gets hurt again, the Giants are going to suck against the pass again. It never hurts to get more depth at cornerback anyway.

116. Pittsburgh Steelers- RLB Eric Norwood (South Carolina)

James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley combine to make the most fearsome 1-2 pass rushing duo in the NFL. However, Harrison will soon be 33 and they have zero depth behind either. They will be screwed if one of them gets hurt.

 

 

117. Atlanta Falcons- WR Eric Decker (Minnesota)

I don’t hate Michael Jenkins. I don’t love him either. I’m sure Matt Ryan wouldn’t mind someone else to throw the ball to. Decker is a very good value here. 

118. Houston Texans- DT Vince Oghobaase (Duke)

Travis Johnson wasn’t very good as a Texan, but he was never replaced when they traded him so the Texans should target a replacement next to Amobi Okoye through the draft this year.

119. New England Patriots – WR Dezmon Briscoe (Kansas)

Randy Moss has only one year left on his contract and based on his effort last year and the Patriots early playoff exit, there’s a good chance they either trade or cut him this offseason. They would need a deep threat to compliment either Wes Welker or Julian Edelman, depending on whether or not Welker can play. Briscoe would fit the scheme extremely well because he played in a similar scheme and had huge numbers at Kansas last year.

120. Cincinnati Bengals- MLB Sean Lee (Penn State)

Lee doesn’t fill a huge need, but he’s a great value here. Dhani Jones is over 30 and a free agent in 2011 and, if they decide not to bring him back, Lee can step in and start. If not, he’ll be valuable depth across the board as a linebacker.

121. Philadelphia Eagles- DE Greg Hardy (Mississippi)

Hardy has first round talent, but he’s got a shitload of injury problems in the past and he showed up to the Combine very out of shape. If enough teams slap him with both the injury prone and lazy tags, he could very well slip into the 3^rd. The Eagles have been taking a lot more character risks in recent years, namely Michael Vick, so while they haven’t yet adopted the Cincinnati style of building a team (in which a player is actually more highly rated if he has committed a crime), I would not be surprised if they took a risk on Hardy here. He’s got the size and the pass rushing moves to be the type of guy Andy Reid would like at left end.

122. Green Bay Packers- RB Deji Karim (Southern Illinois)

They don’t have much behind Ryan Grant as I don’t think they like Brandon Jackson very much. They’ll be looking for a backup running back somewhere in the 4^th-6^th rounds this year.

123. Arizona Cardinals (via BAL)- QB Jevan Snead (Mississippi)

They signed Derek Anderson in free agency to go with Matt Leinart, but they wouldn’t be able to pass on Snead in the 4^th. Plus, Anderson and Leinart aren’t exactly the most trustworthy guys. Between them, they have a combined 1 good season (Anderson, 2007).

124. New York Jets (via ARI)- S Myron Rolle (Florida State)

The Jets signed Brodney Pool from the Browns, but he is one concussion away from having to retire. The Jets can afford to take a high upside guy like Rolle here

125. Dallas Cowboys- 3-4 DE CJ Wilson (East Carolina)

Marcus Spears is a free agent next offseason and there’s nothing wrong with taking best available.

126. San Diego Chargers- S Larry Asante (Nebraska)

Kevin Ellison was thrown into the starting lineup midseason and struggled. He wasn’t supposed to be much more than a backup and a special teamer anyway because he struggles in coverage.

127. Seattle Seahawks (PHI, NYJ)- OT Selvish Capers (West Virginia)

Offensive line coach Alex Gibbs has shown in the past that he has no problem waiting until the mid rounds for a developmental tackle, so, rather than reaching for one in the first, I would not be surprised if he took an athletic project like Capers here in the 4^th.

128. Minnesota Vikings- C Eric Olsen (Notre Dame)

John Sullivan really struggled to replace Matt Birk last year, especially as a run blocker, and Adrian Peterson struggled last as a result.

129. Indianapolis Colts- OLB Donald Butler (Washington)

The Colts always try to upgrade their linebackers in the mid rounds and Butler provides depth at multiple position and could fight for a starting job in the future.

130. New Orleans Saints- RB Anthony Dixon (Mississippi State)

The Saints like to use a two back scheme to keep their backs fresh late into games and late into the season. It definitely worked last year, but with Mike Bell gone, and Lynell Hamilton penciled into that #2 back role, it might not work as well this year. Enter Dixon, who would serve as the power back compliment to Pierre Thomas. The two of them would wreak some serious havoc next year.

 

 

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By Michael J Morris 

The 49ers beat the Raiders last week, giving them their first win of the season. The most recent game against the Panthers was the same old script–with a new twist–Alex Smith getting injured, allowing for David Carr to get his chance.

With the game 13 all in the fourth quarter, defensive-end, Ray McDonald took an interception from Matt Moore back 31 yards for a score, giving the 49ers a 7-point lead with just under 13 minutes to go in the fourth.

But Moore would make up for his mistake, taking the Panthers down the field in the last minutes of the game with a 23-yard pass to WR David Gettis who finished the day off with 8 catches, 125 yards, and two scores.  Moore would finish with 308 passing yards on the day.

Carr would have his chance to prove his worth with a two-minute drill.   Alex Smith, err, I mean David Carr then through an interception before you could blink putting the Panthers in position for the go ahead field goal.  John Kasay put it through sending the lowly 49ers to the UK.

Vernon Davis, who may be the most consistent 49er this season, is looking forward to the game.

“I can’t wait, I know my teammates can’t as well,” Davis said. “Some of the guys haven’t been over here to see London, period. I know they couldn’t wait to get over here. We’re here now and we’ve got work to do.”

The 49ers touched down in the UK on Monday and will be facing the Broncos who recently allowed the Oakland Raiders to go All-Madden on them and score 59 points.  This could mean one of two things.  The 49ers will put 79 on the Broncos since they beat the Raiders in the previous week.  Or that the Broncos will come out even hungrier than they normally would have, to prove they have a chance at the AFC West.

It isn’t known as of yet who will be starting quarterback when the 49ers suit up in London this Sunday.  If I were the man of empty, yet probably serious, promises, would hope that Smith start this weekend and give the Broncos something they haven’t seen.  And no, not number 11, but the man with the Heisman, Troy Smith.  It may be wishful thinking, but hey, at least it’s thinking…

Go back to 49ers Fan Spot 

http://michaeljmorris.wordpress.com/

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Priority free agent

 

 

OLB Akeem Ayers DOWN

Ayers is still a versatile player and a first round lock, but a 4.80 40 does hurt.

DE Justin Houston UP

He put on 13 pounds and is still athletic, running a 4.63 40. Remember, he also benched 30 reps yesterday. I think he’s successfully sold himself as a possibility to 4-3 teams this week, while keeping himself an option for 3-4 teams. Nice job.

MLB Greg Jones DOWN

Jones put on about 10-15 pounds this season and he did lose a lot of speed, running a 4.75 40. He was supposed to run in the 4.5s and be one of the faster linebackers in Indy.

OLB Von Miller UP

Miller has been called the fastest prospect off the edge in years and this is why, a 4.46 40 at 6-3 246. To put that in context, that would have tied for the 7^th best running back time if Miller were a running back. The scary part, I think he might actually be faster in games. He also had a 37 inch vertical…for what that matters.

MLB Martez Wilson UP

However, Miller wasn’t even the fastest linebacker in Indy. That title goes to Martez Wilson, in a bit of a surprise. The athletic 250 pound middle linebacker out of Illinois definitely helped his draft stock with that 4.44, which is very good for him as a borderline first round prospect. He could go as high as 26 to Baltimore.

DT Marvin Austin UP

A 4.80 at 6-2 309!?!? Somewhere Al Davis just shit his diaper. This would be impressive on its own, but remember Austin was suspended all last season for something stupid. It’s very good to see him stay in shape on his year off, especially since he doesn’t have a reputation for having a good work ethic. A 38 inch vertical is also nice. He never lived up to his billing at North Carolina, but the #10 overall high school prospect in 2007 has enough upside that several teams in the 2^nd round, not just the Raiders, could see him as someone they could coach up and take him.

DE Christian Ballard UP

I was expecting him to be fast and he lived up to it with a 4.70 at 6-4 283. He played inside and outside at Iowa last year and could play end in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 at the next level and could also move inside on passing downs. If he had lived up to his measurable in college, he’d be a first round pick lock. Instead, he’ll probably end up settling for the mid 2^nd round.

DE Jeremy Beal DOWN

I knew Jeremy Beal wasn’t athletic, but a 5.13 at 6-2 262!? This pretty much destroys any possibility of him playing in a 3-4. He could actually slip out of day 2 now.

DE Wayne Daniels DOWN

We had our share of jaw dropping 40s today, but also our share of terrible ones, including Daniels’ 5.12 at 6-0 260.

  

DT Marcell Dareus UP 

Dareus put on about 15 pounds since the end of the season to get to 319. Did it slow him down? Not at all, a 4.92, extremely impressive for his size. He might actually fit a 3-4 as a nose tackle in addition to an end now and he may actually get drafted above Nick Fairley.

DT Kendrick Ellis UP

Ellis moves pretty well for his size. He’s purely a nose tackle at the next level at 346, but a 5.19 40 is impressive for that weight.

DT Jarvis Jenkins UP

Jenkins didn’t disappoint with a 4.92 at 6-4 310.

DE Robert Quinn UP

Despite missing a year, Quinn has looked in shape this week with a 4.67 40 at 6-4 265. He looked good in drills as well.

DE Cameron Jordan UP

Not expected to be a fast 40 guy at all, Jordan ran a 4.71 at 287 pounds. This definitely helps him as he tries to get drafted top 10.

DE Cliff Matthews DOWN

Wasn’t he supposed to be an athletic freak? 4.78 at 254? Not good.

DE Pernell McPhee DOWN

McPhee has been out of shape all season. He looked in better shape at the Senior Bowl, but didn’t look good at his measuring here and a 4.94 40 at 278 further proves this.

OLB Bruce Miller DOWN

When trying to prove yourself as a 6-1 254 defensive end, it’s best not to run a 4.82.

OLB Dontay Moch UP

As expected, this guy is very, very fast with a 4.45 40, .01 seconds faster than Von Miller actually. He’s nowhere near as refined as Miller, but he could still go in the 2^nd round.

DE D’Aundre Reed DOWN

This guy was here because he’s athletic…or at least he was supposed to be. 4.90 at 261?! Yikes?!

DT Phil Taylor UP

Not just a big fat guy, Taylor ran a 5.18 at 334. He showed off amazing pass rushing skills for his size at the Senior Bowl and could actually get some 4-3 looks. The Saints, who have the 24^th pick, are known to be interested as are the Broncos, who have the 36^th pick in the 2^nd round.

DE JJ Watt UP

Another impressive 40, 4.78 at 6-5 290. He also benched 34 reps yesterday.

DT Muhammed Wilkerson UP

Ran a 4.99 at 315, very impressive.

DE Ryan Winterswyk DOWN

Ran a 4.99 at 268, not so impressive.

CB Jimmy Smith UP

Smith benched 24 reps of 225. He’s a big physical cornerback at 6-2 211 and I can’t wait to see him in the drills.

RB Mark Ingram UP

Left over from yesterday, I don’t know how I didn’t include him. Ingram’s 40 was decent, 4.58, but he did great in the drills and had the best first 10 yard split of any running back.

 

 

Last week overall: 9-7

Last week ATS: 4-12 (-2135/-19 units)

Overall picks: 154-86 (.642)

Upset Picks: 3-4 (+85/-1 unit)

ATS Picks: 100-132-8 (-12510/-96 units)

Survivor picks: 11-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU)

Upset picks: 27-30 (+3180/+8 units) 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -2922

Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick (+160)

Pick against spread: Green Bay +3 (+105) 2 units (+210)

Aaron Rodgers and company are only expected to play about a quarter is this one. The Packers have locked up home field throughout the NFC with their win last week. Meanwhile, the Lions are going to play hard all game in an attempt to secure the NFC’s 5^th seed. If they lose, then they need Atlanta to lose at home to crappy Tampa Bay to get the #5 seed and if they get stuck with the 6 seed, they have to go to New Orleans in the first round rather than Dallas/New York.

However, we’re getting 3 points with the Packers at home. I have to take that. Even if the starters only play 1 quarter, the Packers could already be up 7-0 or 10-3. Besides, Matt Flynn is not a bad backup quarterback at all. He went 24 of 37 for 251 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick last year against New England. He’s a free agent after the season so this is his showcase to show he can start in this league. The Packers won’t be completely doomed without Rodgers and the rest of the starters, especially if they give Flynn a 7 point lead to start. Even if they lose, I can see them keeping it within 3.

Tennessee Titans 23 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans -3 (+105) 1 unit (-100)

The Texans don’t need to try in this one. They’re stuck in the #3 seed no matter what, but it doesn’t appear they’ll rest their starters. They don’t want to go into the playoffs with a 3 game losing streak to teams with worse records than them and TJ Yates needs all the reps he can get. In fact, the Texans are even likely bringing back Andre Johnson from injury to play in this one.

However, I still really feel they’ll treat this as a scrimmage, basically a preseason game. The Titans could easily be their first round opponent and they don’t want to give away too much of their game plan and playbook so expect the Texans to come out with a very vanilla game plan. In 2009, the Cardinals and Packers met week 17 knowing there was a good chance they would meet again in the first round of the playoffs. The Cardinals showed none of their hand week 17 and got their ass kicked 33-7, but eventually got the last word in the playoffs where they had an advantage.

For the Titans, this is a must win, so obviously they’ll try very hard. They’ll also play very hard to avenge their embarrassing 41-7 loss to Houston earlier this season. Favorites trying to avenge a 21+ point loss as favorites are 23-8 ATS since 2002, 11-4 ATS trying to avenge a divisional 21+ point loss. I don’t know if I agree with the Titans being 3 point road favorites here, but I think they’re the right side. They aren’t the best team, but the Texans aren’t very good either. They haven’t scored more than 20 since Matt Schaub got hurt.

Fun fact, the Titans’ last 3 wins have had the score 23-17. They also lost to Atlanta week 11 23-17, which means that 4 of their last 6 games and all 3 of their last 3 wins had the score 23-17. On top of that, their loss to New Orleans was 22-17.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Upset Pick (+170)

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-115) 3 units (-345)

All the Colts need to do is lose here and they can draft Andrew Luck if they so choose. They’ll obviously lay down and die right? Not necessarily. They’ve won 2 in a row and didn’t look like they wanted to lay down and die when they led a game winning drive against Houston last week. They’ve been playing much better football of late. Dan Orlovsky is 4-0 ATS since taking over as the starting quarterback.

Besides, while it is possible Jim Irsay will tell his team to lay down and die, it’s also possible he secretly wants his team NOT to get the #1 pick so he doesn’t have the deal with the Luck/Manning dilemma and can just take Matt Kalil at #2. It’s also possible that the Jaguars lay down and die so the Colts DON’T get Andrew Luck. It might not be a coincidence that the Colts’ last 2 wins were both divisional wins. Their divisional rivals can’t want this kid in the division.

The Jaguars beat the Colts 17-3 in Indianapolis earlier this season, but the way the Colts have been better of late. They are better than the Jaguars, who can only score 17+ points against Tampa Bay’s terrible defense when their own defense forces 7 turnovers. This line says the Jags are a little better than the Colts which I don’t agree with. I wouldn’t take Jacksonville as more than 3 more favorites over anyone right now. In fact, as 3+ home favorites, they’re an embarrassing 2-9 ATS since 2008. They’re also 3-11 ATS after a divisional loss since 2007 and they lost to Tennessee last weekend, who, by the way, the Colts beat the week before.

Finally, the Colts are on extra rest here. Excluding teams coming off the week 1 Thursday night game, after which teams tend to be flat, teams are 41-27 ATS after a Thursday game since 2008. I believe the Colts can go into Jacksonville and win and even if they don’t, they can definitely keep this within a field goal of the offensively challenged Jaguars. Their great pass rushers will wreak havoc and force a skittish Blaine Gabbert into some bad throws. I like getting more than 3 with the Colts here for a medium sized bet.

New York Jets 24 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3 (-105) 3 units (+300)

This line suggests that the Jets and Dolphins are essentially equals. I disagree with that. They are playing better football under Matt Moore, but remember, Matt Moore still has yet to beat anyone who is any good. In fact, he struggled mightily against these same Jets earlier this season going 16 of 34 for 204 yards and 2 picks. The Jets have one of the better defenses in the league and a confusing scheme so it’s very possible he struggles once again. To make matters worse, Matt Moore won’t have talented blindside protector Jake Long in this one either as he’s done for the season with injury. Reggie Bush is also going to miss this game, right when he was breaking out as a legitimate feature back.

The Dolphins did almost beat the Patriots last week in New England, but I could see how that could actually hurt them this week. They could be very flat after leading by 17 over the Patriots and failing to put them away, losing 27-24. Since 2002, they’re 3-8 ATS after losing to the Patriots and last week’s loss was especially heartbreaking for them.

Besides, last week was on the road and for some reason they are better on the road than at home. Since 2008, they are 22-10 ATS on the road and 10-22 ATS at home. Their home struggles are more in depth than that. As favorites, they are 6-14 ATS since 2008, as opposed to 23-17 ATS as dogs. Dolphins are 5-11 ATS as home favorites since 2008. One trend for the Dolphins is that divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss as divisional dogs are 34-23 ATS since 2008. But, I like the Jets here for a solid sized bet.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Minnesota -1 (-115) 1 unit (-115)

There are conflicting trends here. On one hand, the Vikings will want revenge for the Bears 39-10 destruction of them earlier this season. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss as divisional dogs are 34-23 ATS since 2008. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a 21+ point loss are 29-14 ATS since 2002. They’ll definitely be motivated.

On the other hand, the Bears are in a good situation in their 2^nd of 2 on the road, a situation teams are 168-125 ATS in since 2008. Teams in that situation off a loss are 88-65 ATS since 2008 and teams in that situation off a loss in their 2^nd of 2 as road dogs are 55-37 ATS since 2008 as the trends say this game is a relative toss up.

I’m going with the Vikings here for just a unit because I think this line is a little off. I’d say these teams are about equal now. The Bears have no offensive playmakers and are down to their 3^rd string quarterback and running back and also missing one of their best receivers, Johnny Knox. The Vikings may be missing Adrian Peterson, but I think they still have enough to win a low scoring game against a Chicago team on a 5 game losing streak who could be flat after a loss to divisional rival Green Bay.

New England Patriots 38 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: New England -10 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Over/Under: Over 51 1 unit (Patriots 10-5, Bills 9-6) (+100)

The Patriots barely beat the Dolphins last week and now they are 10 point favorites to the Bills. They have no defense and the public seems to have caught on as the Bills are actually public underdogs this week. As I’ve mentioned before, I love betting against public underdogs, but that’s not the only reason I love the Patriots in this situation.

The Patriots barely escaped last week with a win and I expect them to play their hearts out this week to compensate. A few weeks ago, Washington almost beat them and the Patriots came out the next week and thrashed the Broncos. Besides, this is a revenge game for Bill Belichick. Bill Belichick is 42-24 ATS against teams he previously lost to, 25-11 ATS against teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000.

Not only is this a revenge game, but this is a divisional revenge game. Bill Belichick is 19-6 ATS against divisional teams he previously lost to, 12-2 ATS against divisional teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000. The fact that this is a huge line shouldn’t scare you off too much. BB is 6-3 ATS as 7+ favorites against teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000, 5-0 ATS as 7+ favorites against divisional teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000. Finally, teams are 41-27 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer.

One more trend for the Patriots, teams coming off a win in which they allowed 21+ points are 152-103 ATS since 2008, 98-62 ATS as favorites. Teams may be 29-43 ATS off a close divisional win (3 or fewer points) are since 2008, 11-27 ATS as favorites, but the Patriots are actually 4-1 ATS in this situation under Bill Belichick. However, this will not be a huge bet because I don’t trust New England’s defense enough to heavily bet on them as double digit favorites.

New Orleans Saints 34 Carolina Panthers 31

Pick against spread: Carolina +9 (-125) 3 units (-375)

The Saints are coming off a huge win on MNF. Normally, I would bet on them in this situation because of the powerful trend associated with teams coming off MNF wins of 21+. Teams in that situation are 26-11 ATS since 2002. However, there’s a very good chance the Saints’ starters don’t play the whole game.

Drew Brees has already broken his record and if the 49ers beat the Rams, the Saints are stuck in the #3 seed no matter what. The Saints/Panthers and the 49ers/Rams games happen concurrently, but we saw this last year. The Saints pulled their starters at halftime of their week 17 game against Tampa Bay (an eventual loss) because Atlanta was killing Carolina, making New Orleans’ game meaningless. The Rams are so bad that the 49ers could be up big at halftime and if they are, expect the Saints to rest starters week 17 for the 3^rd straight year. Given that, I can’t bet on the Saints as large favorites here.

Besides, the Saints struggle as large favorites normally. They are 5-11 ATS since 2006 as favorites of 9+ (4-10 ATS as favorites of 10+). You might think that has changed since they’ve gotten better, but since their Super Bowl winning season in 2009, they’re still only 5-9 ATS as favorites of 9+ (4-9 ATS as 10+ favorites. Besides, Cam Newton is the type of quarterback who can get a late backdoor cover with ease. And the Panthers have already almost beaten the Saints this year, losing by 3 to them earlier. They proved they can hang with them and teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or less are 41-27 ATS since 2008, 23-11 ATS as dogs.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Redskins 21

Pick against spread: Washington +9 (-125) 1 unit (-125)

The Eagles looked done at 4-8 after a loss to Seattle and it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Andy Reid would get fired. Well, 3 weeks later, they are officially done, but they sit at 7-8 and are finally playing like the team we thought they could be at the beginning of the season and can get to .500 with a win here. Also, Andy Reid’s job is looking much, much safer.

However, it’s tough to tell how they’ll come out in this one. They got eliminated last weekend so they could be flat, but at the same time they’ve played some of their best football in games when the pressure has been off and it’s certainly off now. There are no major trends here, but the tiebreaker here for me is how much the Eagles have struggled as large favorites this season. They haven’t covered a line higher than 5 all season, going 0-4 ATS in such games. Washington has the type of offense that can get a backdoor cover as well.

 

San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 3

Pick against spread: San Francisco -10.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)

Over/Under: Under 35.5 1 unit (49ers 6-9, Rams 4-9-2) (-110)

Normally I hate betting on double digit road favorites. Teams are just 0-6 ATS in this situation this year. There’s also a tough trend working against San Francisco, coming off a close 2 point win over Seattle last weekend. Teams coming off a divisional win by 3 or fewer are 29-43 ATS since 2008, 11-27 ATS as favorites.

However, that being said, I can’t bet on St. Louis. They’ve been shut out twice in the last 4 weeks and have scored 26 points total in the last 4 weeks, 13 in their last 3 without Sam Bradford. Their offense was terrible with him, but they’re even worse without him. One of their two recent shutouts was in San Francisco just 4 weeks ago and even though this game is in St. Louis, it’s conceivable they could be shut out or close to shut out again. The 49ers have the league’s best scoring defense so I would find it unlikely that St. Louis gets out of single digits.

There also is a powerful trend working in San Francisco’s favor. Teams are 168-125 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game since 2008, 31-17 ATS is their 2^nd straight as favorites, 22-11 ATS in their 2^nd straight as favorites after a win. This is won’t be a very big bet, but I do like San Francisco in this situation almost solely on St. Louis’ ineptitude.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -11 (-110) 2 units (+200)

Atlanta is in a bad situation coming off a MNF loss of 21+. Teams in this situation are 13-23 ATS since 2002, 6-13 ATS off a divisional loss of 21+. However, Tampa Bay has absolutely quit and things won’t get much better this week with news that their coach is almost definitely getting fired after the season. They’ve surrendered 30+ to 6 of their last 7 opponents so Atlanta can sleepwalk and still probably score 30, even if they are flat off a bad loss and a short week.

Two trends do work in Atlanta’s favor. Teams are 44-31 ATS as favorites trying to avenge a divisional loss as dogs since 2008. Also, teams are 41-27 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer. This won’t be a very big bet, but I love betting against Tampa Bay right now so I’m going with Atlanta for a couple of units.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -1.5 (-115) 4 units (+400)

The Ravens may seem like a huge enigma and from the outside they may be, but they are in 3 situations this week that they’ve been very good in this season. As underdogs of favorites of less than 5.5 this season, they are 5-1 ATS. They’ve struggled ATS against much inferior opponents, but they’ve played well against good teams. Going off of that, they’re 6-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

They’re also 4-1 ATS in the division. It makes sense that they’d take divisional games more seriously. They need this win to secure a first round bye and the #2 seed so they’ll definitely be motivated, especially with Pittsburgh playing Cleveland and ready to take their #2 seed if they slip. I’m very confident that the Ravens can win here and against a very small line, I really like them this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5 (-125) 3 units (+300)

Ben Roethlisberger is expected to play through an ankle injury, but he could be limited. He played very poorly against San Francisco on MNF a couple weeks ago through an ankle injury as Pittsburgh lost 20-3. Now the Steelers go to Cleveland as 7.5 point favorites after having trouble putting away lesser teams all season.

They only beat Indy (in Indy) by 3, Jacksonville (at home) by 4, Kansas City (in Kansas City) by 4. Even a few weeks ago, they only beat Cleveland by 11 and that was after a late touchdown took it from 7-3 to 14-3. And for the most part, all of that happened when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. Now he’s not and they’ve actually scored only 17 points in their last 2 games with him hurt combined, including only 14 at home for Cleveland. Now they go to Cleveland.

And if Ben Roethlisberger plays really well, he could be pulled in order to rest him. Charlie Batch is not a bad backup, but he’s not exactly Ben Roethlisberger. He had a solid game last week against St. Louis’ miserable secondary, but Cleveland actually has one of the better pass defenses in the league so if he comes in with a sizeable lead, there’s still a solid chance of a backdoor cover against this 7.5 point line. On top of that, Ben Roethlisberger is just 3-9 ATS in his career of 7+ point road favorites. I really love getting more than a touchdown with Cleveland here.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Seattle Seahawks 17 Survivor Pick 11-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU)

Pick against spread: Arizona -2.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)

Both of these teams were eliminated from the playoffs last weekend, several weeks after most projected they would be eliminated. Now they play each other. Both teams could be flat after missing the playoffs last weekend, so really anything could happen, but with NFC West matchups, picking the home team ATS is normally the smart thing to do. NFC West home teams are 22-11 ATS since 2009 in divisional matchups. Adding to that, Seattle is a significantly worse road team (14-26 ATS) than home team (27-14 ATS) since 2007. One additional trend is that Arizona is trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer, a situation teams are 41-27 ATS in since 2008, I’m taking Arizona for a couple.

Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Denver -3 (-125) 2 units (-250)

Tebow was awful last week, but it wasn’t just him. They couldn’t do anything on the ground. His receivers couldn’t catch. His line couldn’t block and his defense couldn’t stop anyone. The game plan was also overly conservative to a fault. This week, they get the Chiefs. Based on what he’s done this season, Tebow shouldn’t have much trouble winning (well, he could have trouble, but he’ll still win). The Chiefs suck and the Broncos have shown the ability to beat bad to average teams in conservative fashion. However, that’s what I said last week.

On top of that, the Broncos defense is banged up. Von Miller was playing like the defensive player of the year before a thumb injury, but he hasn’t been the same since. They’re also missing both of their starting safeties. Also, Kyle Orton plays for the Chiefs, so the Chiefs could have a strategic advantage in that Orton played for Denver just a few weeks ago.

Finally, a trend does work for the Chiefs because teams are 29-16 ATS as dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites since 2008. The Broncos are also the young team with all the pressure trying to make the playoffs, while the Chiefs have no pressure and have been playing better football under Romeo Crennel. All that said, I’m still taking the Broncos, especially since they did beat Kansas City in Kansas City earlier this season, but it’s not a very big bet.

San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 21 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5 (-105) 4 units (+400)

Philip Rivers is 21-2 SU after week 14 (not including playoffs), 16-7 ATS and 4-1 ATS as dogs. The Chargers lost in this situation last week, but I actually still love them in this situation this week. Last week was a tougher game for them because they had to go all the way to Detroit, just like they lost when they went to Cincinnati last year. This week, they just have to go to Oakland and it’s their 2^nd straight road game.

Being in the 2^nd straight road game is a situation teams are 168-125 ATS in since 2008. Teams in that situation off a loss are 88-65 ATS since 2008 and teams in that situation off a loss in their 2^nd of 2 as road dogs are 55-37 ATS since 2008. The Chargers are also in a good situation because teams are 29-16 ATS as dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites since 2008. Finally, the Chargers have absolutely no pressure, which they love, while the Oakland need to win to make the playoffs.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 28 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: Dallas +3 (-105) 3 units (-315)

These two teams met just a couple weeks ago. Dallas led by 12 late, but two late New York touchdowns, 1 two point conversion, a ball Miles Austin lost in the sun on a wide open touchdown, an iced kicker and a missed field goal later, New York won 37-34. That game was in Dallas and this one is in New York, but I still think Dallas has the advantage this week for several reasons.

For one, the pressure is off Dallas. New York is the home team, the favorite, the one who is supposed to win, while Dallas is the underdog with a quarterback with an injured hand (more on that later). Both of these teams are awful down the stretch. New York is 47-17 SU under Tom Coughlin in the first half of the season and 26-37 SU under Coughlin in the 2^nd half of the season. Meanwhile, Dallas is 10-18 ATS from week 13 on, but 3-3 ATS as dogs, as opposed to 7-15 ATS as favorites.

Back to their previous matchup, it really did seem like Dallas outplayed New York. It took a bizarre sequence for New York to come back. Besides, Dallas’ loss to New York could actually help them here. Dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites are 29-16 ATS since 2008. Teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer are 41-27 ATS since 2008, 23-11 ATS as dogs.

Finally, onto Romo’s hand. Romo’s hand might be banged up, but it’s not like Eli Manning is playing well either. Since his last matchup with Dallas, Manning is 32 for 67 for 482 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions and that includes a 99 yard touchdown by Victor Cruz that Manning barely had a part in. I think his recent struggles cancel out the impact of Romo’s hand injury, which is reportedly not going to be a huge factor. There was never any question whether or not he could play and only sat last week after the hit because the game last week was meaningless if they lost to New York here, which I don’t think they will.

LV Hilton Super Contest: Baltimore -2.5, San Diego +3, New England -11, NY Jets +2, Indianapolis +3.5

 

1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 

41. NT/DT Paul Soliai (Miami)- Resigned 2 years 18 million

Paul Soliai had a breakout year in a contract year in 2010 and was franchised by Miami in order to prove he was more than a one year wonder. He wasn’t bad in 2011, but he wasn’t as good and likely cost himself some money. However, there’s a demand for 3-4 nose tackles on the market and Soliai doesn’t turn 29 until December. He probably won’t be back in Miami as they switch to a 4-3, but someone will give him a good amount of money. 

42. TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)- resigned 2 years 15 million

He’s got the talent, but he’s never put it together. He had an excellent 2^nd half in 2009 as he took the starting job and was off to a great start in 2010 before suffering a major injury. He started 2011 out well, but ultimately ended up with just 55 catches for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns, not bad, but short of expectations, especially with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball all over the field. He also dropped 12 passes, 5^th most among receivers and most among tight ends. This was a real problem for him down the stretch. The upside is still there and he turns just 25 in March, but I’d be worried about giving him a huge long term deal on potential. Make him prove himself for a full season first. 

43. OT Eric Winston (Houston)- Signed with Kansas City 4 years 22 million

The Texans made a surprising decision to cut Eric Winston. The release may signal that the cap pressed Texans are gearing up for a run at Peyton Manning or Mike Wallace, or perhaps to strength their offer to resign Mario Williams. Either way, Winston will command a pretty penny on the open market. In an offensive tackle class full of injury prone (Jared Gaither, Demetrius Bell), tried and failed starters (Jeff Backus, Levi Brown), and unproven former backups (Anthony Collins), Winston is a legitimate above average right tackle. Last season he allowed 7 sacks and 9 penalties, but only 20 total pressures, while being ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked run blocking offensive tackle. ProFootballFocus graded him as their 11th overall offensive tackle. There’s questions about his scheme versatility and ability to play on the left side, but I would be surprised if he didn’t exceed the 5.5 million he was owed by the Texans in 2012.

44. RB Michael Bush (Oakland)- Signed with Chicago 4 years 14 million with 7 million guaranteed

Michael Bush got a taste at being a lead back in 2011 with Darren McFadden hurt and he wants to continue to be one in 2012. However, it probably won’t be in Oakland as they’re not likely to trade Darren McFadden. Bush will get looks on the open market, but teams should remember he turns 28 in June (basically 33 in running back years) and that he averaged just 3.8 YPC last season as a starter, including less than 4 YPC in 6 of his last 7 games. Teams would be better off drafting someone like Trent Richardson, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, or Chris Polk in the first 3 rounds of the 2012 NFL Draft than committing significantly money to Michael Bush.

45. WR Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis)- Signed with Washington 5 years 42.5 million with 21.5 million guaranteed

Garcon doesn’t turn 26 until August and the former undrafted free agent just had a career year at the right time, catching 70 passes for 947 yards and 6 touchdowns. Even more impressive, he did that without Peyton Manning, the only Colt receiver to do so. He recently turned down a 5 year deal from the Colts because of Manning’s uncertain future. If Manning isn’t back, Garcon could very well not be either. On the other hand, the 35 million over 5 the Colts offered him might be the best he gets so he could be back.

46. OLB Erin Henderson (Minnesota)- Resigned 1 year 2 million

Erin Henderson came into the season as EJ Henderson’s former undrafted free agent younger brother and had to battle for the starting weakside linebacker job in Minnesota. Now, he’s one of the best young linebackers in the league. 26 in July, Henderson is coming off a season in which ProFootballFocus ranked him 4^th among 4-3 outside linebackers. After 70 tackles in 2011, Henderson is due for a solid payday.

47. DE/RLB Robert Mathis (Indianapolis)- resigned for 4 years 36 million with 15 million guaranteed

Mathis has 83.5 career sacks in 9 seasons, 80 in 8 seasons if you take out his rookie season. However, there are 3 concerns. One, how would he fare without Dwight Freeney opposite him? Two, how would he fare outside of the Colts system. He’s undersized at 245, but has never played in a 3-4. Three, he just turned 31. He’ll get money somewhere, though he probably won’t stick around for the Colts’ rebuilding project and switch to a 3-4 defense, but he’s not without risks.

48. WR Mario Manningham (NY Giants)- Signed with San Francisco 2 years 7.4 million

Mario Manningham had 60 catches for 944 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2010 and was due for a better season in 2011, as Steve Smith left for Philadelphia. However, injuries and the emergence of Victor Cruz limited him to 39 catches for 523 yards and 4 touchdowns, though he did have a huge catch in the Super Bowl. He’s a talented player, but he probably won’t be back with the Giants. He’d be their #3 receiver and they already have an in house replacement in 2011 3^rd round pick Jerel Jernigan so they won’t offer him as much money as someone looking at him as a #2 option. Someone will pay him as that though and they will probably end up pleased with the signing, though you never know with receivers switching teams. Manningham is still young too, turning just 26 in May.

 

49. S Michael Griffin (Tennessee)- Franchise tagged

A 1^st round pick in 2007, Griffin was ProFootballFocus’ 13^th ranked safety last season. In 5 years, Griffin, who just turned 27, has 389 tackles and 17 interceptions, while being at least average against the pass. He’s expected to be franchised, but if he isn’t, he could rejoin Jeff Fisher in St. Louis.

50. OT Jared Gaither (San Diego)- Resigned 4 years 24.6 million with 9 million guaranteed

Jared Gaither was on his way to being a franchise left tackle for 8-10 years in Baltimore, before back injuries bounced him to Oakland then Kansas City and eventually San Diego, where he actually played well down the stretch last season. He’s no sure thing going forward, but he’s a potential left tackle long term so the Chargers will push big time to resign him, especially after cutting Marcus McNeill. After all he’s been through, he’ll only be 26 in March.

 

 

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Priority free agent

 

Spotlight #1: Vanderbilt CB Casey Hayward

Spotlight #2: Alabama MLB Dont’a Hightower 

1^st quarter

14:50: Hayward blankets a guy, pass incomplete behind him.

13:15: Hightower sticks his nose in on a pile.

12:30: Alabama safety Barron with back to back nice coverage plays.

12:03: Hayward sticks his nose in on a tackle on a check down for a short gain.

11:19: Alabama left tackle Barrett Jones on a hold.

8:35: Hayward thrown against in the end zone, good coverage, out of bounds, inaccurate on the pass anyway.

7:36: Hightower taken down on a cut block.

6:03: Hightower gets in on a tackle for a short gain.

4:23: Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick with an awesome tackle. He’s had some coverage issues this year, but I think he’d make a hell of a safety at the next level.

3:46: Alabama nose tackle Josh Chapman on a combined tackle for a loss on a quarterback run, huge stuff.

2^nd quarter

14:48: Mark Barron with a huge tackle. He’s having a huge game so far.

14:08: Hightower gives chase in the backfield on an option pitch.

12:46: Hayward goes around a block, puts a nice tackle on a ball carrier in space.

9:23: Hayward explosive into the backfield for a tackle for loss on a Trent Richardson screen. Richardson is not a guy who goes down for a loss all that often, especially with only a cornerback tackling him. Awesome play.

8:34: Hightower misses a tackle on a big play, lets the receiver gets big yards after the catch and doesn’t have the speed to recovery.

7:15: Hightower able to run down the fullback in the open field, but not before allowing a 1^st round on a medium gain.

6:47: Hightower thrown on again, complete.

5:39: Hightower with a poor effort on a play.

3:40: Hayward in on another tackle in the open field.

1:50: Alabama receiver with an illegal block in the back on Casey Hayward on a running play.

1:30: Hayward with another tackle on an outside run by Trent Richardson.

1:15: Hayward with tight coverage on a tight end. He’s covered tight ends on occasion all night and he’s played very well despite their size advantage.

0:32: Hayward allows a completion on an out route. Well thrown ball, nice catch, solid coverage, but not enough.

0:21: Alabama quarterback looks Hayward’s way, nothing open, decides against it after a fake.

3^rd quarter

14:43: Hightower in on a short tackle.

14:05: Mark Barron on a tackle for loss. Guy’s a stud. Can’t wait to spotlight him. He looks very improved from last season and might be the best safety in the country, unless you consider Kirkpatrick a safety.

13:24: Hightower delivers a big hit to close on a short catch.

5:49: Kirkpatrick allows receiver to get open deep on a double move, but it’s just overthrown. He’s had issues in coverage all year. If I were to rank them now, Morris Claiborne, Casey Hayward, Stephon Gilmore, and Dre Kirkpatrick would be the order of the top 4 cornerbacks in this class. Kirkpatrick would be the best safety in the country if I were counting him there. After him, it’d probably either be Mark Barron and then Markelle Martin. This is all very preliminary, however.

5:12: Hightower with a nice pressure and hit as the quarterback throws, Mark Barron with a pass deflection on the play as well.

4:28: Hayward in on a tackle for loss on Richardson after he breaks a few. This is the 2^nd time Hayward has brought Richardson down for a loss tonight. Very few players ever do that, especially not cornerbacks. Love Hayward’s technique, toughness and attitude against the run. His motor never sets off.

3:06: Alabama center Williams Vlachos with 3, count them 3, 2^nd level blocks on a screen that goes for a first. Vlachos is probably a 2^nd or 3^rd rounder and the 3^rd best center in this class after Mike Brewster and Peter Konz for Ohio State and Wisconsin respectively up in the Big 10.

0:37: Hightower brings a guy down from behind on a nice tackle.

4^th quarter

14:48: Barron with another huge tackle. Most impressive player on the field tonight and Casey Hayward has been pretty damn impressive.

14:17: Barron on an explosive tackle for loss on a screen.

0:00: In no particular order, Stephon Gilmore, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Morris Claiborne are the consensus top 3 cornerbacks in this class. I’ve watched all 3 and I’ll watch more, but to this point, Casey Hayward has impressed me more than any of those 3. Dre Kirkpatrick was in this game and he struggled at times. He’s consistently struggled with double moves this season. He’s got poor hips and doesn’t change speed well. He’s more straight line fast than anything. He’s a big, physical, rangy player and an excellent tackler, but probably belongs at safety at the next level.

Hayward isn’t as big as Kirkpatrick at 5-11 195, but he plays bigger. He brought down Trent Richardson in the backfield on assisted twice tonight and showed a great motor on run plays. He doesn’t take plays off and he’s got great technique, explosiveness and tenacity against the run. On top of this, he allowed 1 completion all game and it was on a perfect throw and an awesome catch. And it wasn’t like Alabama struggled to pass the ball. AJ McCarron was 23 of 30 for 237 yards and 4 touchdowns with no picks. He just couldn’t complete anything against Hayward except for that one time and most of the time didn’t even look Hayward’s way.

Hayward played well against South Carolina as well, limiting Alshon Jeffery to 2 catches and also picking off 2 passes. He has 5 picks on the season in just 7 games and 13 in his career. He also has 26 tackles, 3.5 for loss, and 2 pass deflections on the season. He’s very good in all facets of the game and should be a first rounder, though he’s underrated. I’ll continue work breaking down the cornerback class and have final rankings later, but Hayward should be pretty high.

However, Hayward wasn’t even the most impressive player on the field. That would go to Alabama safety Mark Barron. I wasn’t even spotlighting Barron, but he made so many impact plays on this game as Alabama’s defense was able to pitch a shutout. The 6-2 220 pound safety can play free safety and strong safety and has looked much improved this season after the potential 2011 day 2 pick returned for his senior season. He has 33 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 1 pick and 4 pass deflections in 7 games and could sneak into the first round in this weak safety class.

Now onto the Alabama defender I was actually spotlighting, Dont’a Hightower. Hightower was a rising prospect early this season as he was finally healthy for the first time, but he’s actually slipping a bit of late and I can see why. He just didn’t have a huge impact. He’s a big guy, 6-4 260, but he just didn’t stand out in this game. He has some nice plays, but it wasn’t enough. He struggled in coverage, he missed a few tackles, he didn’t look all that fast, and considering his injury history, I’d have a hard time using more than a 3^rd rounder on him. Of course, I’ll watch plenty more of Alabama in the future so that’s not final.

Spotlight #1: Arkansas MLB Jerry Franklin

Spotlight #2: Tennessee DE Malik Jackson 

1st quarter

9:23: Franklin with a tackle for loss after a receiver catches a low pass in the flat.

8:11: Jackson with good instincts to get in on a tackle on a quarterback run.

5:51: Jackson explosive up the middle, hit the quarterback as he throws, but Tyler Wilson still completes it.

2:58: Jake Bequette almost has a sack. That would have made 4 sacks in his last 2 games. He’s clearly healthy finally and could regain day 2 status.

2:43: Austin Johnson, a talented senior linebacker for Tennessee, gets a pick, his 3^rd of the year. He was very deep in coverage in Tennessee’s Tampa 2 defense. He looks like a late rounder.

1:50: Franklin in on a tackle, sort of. He did slow the ball carrier, but he also fell back after the hit.

0:18: Arkansas stud wide receiver/punt returner Joe Adams with one of the craziest punt return touchdowns I’ve ever seen. I can’t even begin to explain it, so I’m just putting in a video clip. That’s his 3^rd punt return touchdown of the season.

2^nd quarter

14:54: Arkansas safety Tramain Thomas almost makes what would have been one of the best interceptions of the season in college football.

14:29: Malik Jackson gets into the backfield on a play where Tennessee gets a tackle for a loss.

12:30: Joe Adams uses his speed to get wide open downfield, but he was overthrown.

10:41: Franklin blows up into the backfield for a tackle for a loss.

9:16: Jackson run at, very small gain, in on the bottom of the pile.

8:50: Jarius Wright makes an awesome juggling catch.

6:10: Franklin looks stiff in coverage, but able to put the hit on the receiver immediately after allowing an intermediate completion.

2:42: Franklin tackles a guy after he reverses field, almost stops him from converting 3^rd and 3.

0:31: Tramain Thomas with a huge pick on 3^rd and goal. That’s the 4^th pick of the year for the likely mid rounder.

 

3^rd quarter

12:04: Bequette gets his hands on one while charging for the quarterback and almost intercepts it.

11:58: Franklin plugs a hole nicely up the middle, gets a tackle after a gain of 2 or 3.

10:58: Tramain Thomas out of position on a big gain through the air.

6:27: Franklin falls trying to make a tackle on a spinning ball carrier.

4:10: Joe Adams does bring this one in deep, touchdown. 40 yards.

2:22: Jackson gets into the backfield, but bites on a fake.

0:04: Adams drops a pass.

4^th quarter

14:41: Franklin in on a stuff at the line.

6:34: Franklin gets a tackle up the middle.

0:00: Jerry Franklin is one of the most productive defensive players in Arkansas history. A 4 year starter, Franklin has 351 career tackles and counting. On the season, he has 82 tackles after getting 9 in this one. The 6-1 245 pound linebacker looks like a mid round pick and a 3-4 player. He’s big and physical, but he doesn’t look all that athletic, though he has great fundamentals. He looked stiff in coverage and struggled with open field tackles. He was at his best when run at up the middle. He could play both inside and maybe outside in 3-4 as he did have 6.5 sacks in 2010. He could also be a solid special teamer, but overall he’s a mid rounder.

Arkansas has a few other good defensive players. Jake Bequette had his 4^th sack in 2 games in this game and almost had a 5^th sack and a pick. He was relentless in this one and finally looks healthy after missing 3 games to start the season. A 3 year starter at defensive end, the 6-5 270 pound Bequette looks like a left end at the next level. After 7 sacks and 8.5 tackles for a loss last season, he now has 6 sacks and 6.5 sacks on the season, despite not being healthy for the first half of the season. If he keeps this up, he could regain day 2 status.

Arkansas Tramain Thomas had his 4^th pick of the season in this one, and it was a huge pick on 3^rd and goal. He almost had another pick, but was unable to finish what would have been one of the best interceptions on the season. The 6-0 205 pound safety looks like a mid rounder as either a free safety or a strong safety. On the season, he has 64 tackles, 2.5 for loss, 5 deflections and 4 picks in 10 games.

Arkansas has plenty of talent offensively as well. Joe Adams had an amazing punt return touchdown, a great deep touchdown, and almost had a 2^nd one, but Tyler Wilson somehow overthrew him. He’s great in space and his speed and quickness could get him drafted on the 2^nd day of the draft. He had 2 catches for 52 yards and a touchdown, giving him 43 catches for 568 yards and 2 scores on the season, as well as 3 punt return touchdowns.

Jarius Wright is their other good wide receiver and he had another great game, complete with an awesome juggling catch. He had 5 catches for 94 yards and a score to give him 53 catches for 906 yards and 9 touchdowns in 9 games (missed one with injury). The 5-10 180 pound receiver has 3 good yards of production, as Joe Adams does, and looks like a potential day 2 pick as a slot receiver.

Defensively for Tennessee, the spotlight was Malik Jackson. Jackson, an athletic transfer from Tennessee, is playing out of position at defensive tackle, but the 6-5 270 pound lineman looks like he has a lot of upside as a left or even a right end at the next level. He looked very good to start the game, but seemed to tire as the game went on. Regardless, he’s playing well of late and could be a mid round flier and upside pick. On the season he has 46 tackles, 11 for loss, and 5 sacks, pretty impressive considering he’s playing out of position. He’s extremely athletic and always stands out on tape when I watch him.

Austin Johnson is an underrated player on defense for Tennessee. He’s having a great season with 65 tackles, 4 for loss, and 3 picks. The 6-2 240 linebacker doesn’t have a track record of success before this year, which hurts, but he’s very comfortable in coverage and looks good in Tennessee’s Tampa 2 defense. He’s worth a late round flier by a Tampa 2 team late.

 

By Ryan Glab 

A look at four keys for the Bears to beat this week’s opponent.

1. Run the football; then run some more

It may be difficult or even improbable for Mike Martz to resist the temptation to pass the ball and instead focus on the run, but it’s not impossible. The Bears did run the ball 40 times with Matt Forte and Chester Taylor in a 23-6 Week 5 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Sure, Jay Cutler sat out of that game after suffering a concussion the previous week against the Giants, but running shouldn’t be a necessity based on who is quarterbacking. It should be used to attack a defense just as much as protecting the football. The Buffalo Bills have the worst run defense in the NFL after eight weeks. They’re allowing 188.7 yards per game on the ground and 5.0 yards per carry. It’s imperative that the Bears do not waste this opportunity to get their two running backs involved. Plus, it’s getting repetitive saying this, but the more the Bears run the football the less punishment Jay Cutler will take.

2. Take care of the football

The Bears turned the ball over six times against the Washington Redskins two weeks ago thanks to four Cutler interceptions and Cutler and Forte fumbles. They only lost the game by a field goal, so imagine what even one less turnover could have done for their prospects of winning the game. Generally, a team isn’t going to win a game by giving away the ball that many times, though. Credit the defense for playing a heck of a game, keeping the score close, and generating three turnovers of their own. Three takeaways in a game is the goal of Lovie Smith’s defense, but when your offense gives the ball away twice as many times, it’s pointless. The Bills have tossed seven interceptions and have a minus-5 turnover ratio, so they’re more than capable of giving away the ball. Why should the offense make the defense’s job that much more difficult by giving away the ball?

3. Play a full 60 minutes

The Bears will need a complete effort against Buffalo this week for two reasons. First, they’re just not good enough to win games on the strength of one or two good quarters. Second, the Bills have lost in overtime in back-to-back weeks to two of the better teams in the AFC, the Ravens and Chiefs. They’re aching to pick up their first victory of the season and they’ll fight to the last minute to get over that hump. As far as the Bears are concerned, no lead should be considered safe, if they get a lead at all. 

4. Keep the football on the other end of the field

To maximize their opportunities to score and Brad Maynard’s effectiveness, the Bears need to operate from at least midfield for most of the game. We’ve seen a decline in the distance of Maynard’s punts over the last couple seasons as his tired, old leg continues to age. He currently has an average distance of 38.4 yards per kick, ranking him No. 34 in the league. Yes, there are still only 32 teams in the league, which means two backup punters have surpassed him. What this amounts to is that if the Bears offense is backed up deep in its own end of the field and then has to punt, it’ll be almost impossible to turn around the field position. You’d almost rather the defense allow the opponent to kick a field goal so that Danieal Manning and the kickoff return team can re-establish field position. This adds further emphasis on the offense taking care of the football so as not to give the opponent good field position on a turnover and it also means that the defense can’t give up long drives.

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