Vikings

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Commanders, Uncategorized, Vikings

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-5)

This is a tough one. The Vikings are going into a bye and teams are 37-61 ATS since 2002 at home going into a bye as favorites of 1-5.5 points. This line is right at even so this game might not qualify, but it’s a point away from qualifying and teams are 2-3 ATS at home going into a bye when the line is even. The Redskins also have the significantly easier next game, as they host the Buccaneers, while the Vikings have to go to Chicago. Teams are 58-97 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. This line is even and both teams have byes before those next games so it’s tough to know if this game qualifies, but the logic does still make sense and it’s a point away from qualifying.

The Redskins also are significantly better in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.55% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 1.12% that ranks 13th in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, rank 28th, moving the chains at a 66.95% rate, as opposed to 70.83% for their opponents, a differential of -3.88%. That suggests that the Redskins should be favored, even before you take into account that Robert Griffin is returning from injury. However, much of the reason why the Redskins rank 13th is because of how well they played against the Jaguars, one of the worst teams in the league. If you take that game out of the mix, they move the chains at a 70.14% rate, as opposed to 73.85% for their opponents, a differential of -3.71% that would rank 26th in the NFL. Griffin could also be rusty in his first game back. I like the Redskins, but I’m not confident.

Washington Redskins 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5)

Last week, the Vikings lost in Buffalo on a last second touchdown. However, it was still only a one point loss. I like the Vikings’ chances of actually getting the win here this week a good amount for several reasons. One, they’re playing an inferior opponent as compared to last week. Buffalo isn’t a good football team, but the Buccaneers are worse, hence why this line is 3 instead of 6, as it was last week. Like last week, I think we’re getting line value with the Vikings.

The Vikings aren’t very good, ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.83% rate, as opposed to 72.30% for their opponents, a differential of -5.47%. However, they’re better than the Buccaneers and this line suggests they are equal, which gives up value with Minnesota. The Buccaneers rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 79.53% for their opponents, a differential of -7.94%. They don’t deserve to be favored by a field goal over anyone outside of the Oakland Raiders.

The Vikings are also in a great spot. For one, unlike last week, they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 107-70 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 91-48 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 177-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 252-363 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.29 points per game.

On top of that, they have the easier game next week, hosting the Redskins in Minnesota, while the Buccaneers have to go to Cleveland. Teams are 71-103 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs and conversely teams are 108-73 ATS in that same time period as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining the two, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 95-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. I like the Vikings’ chances to get the road upset here.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bills, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3)

The Bills have generally been very good at home over the past 2 seasons, going 7-3 ATS in Buffalo, but they’re only 1-1 ATS as favorites. I think this line is way too high at 5.5. The Bills are 3-3, but they’re not as good as their record, moving the chains at a 64.16% rate, as opposed to 69.54% for their opponents, a differential of -5.38% that ranks 27th in the NFL. The Vikings aren’t good either, moving the chains at a 67.82% rate, as opposed to 72.63% for their opponents, a differential of -4.81% that ranks 26th, but the Bills still have no business being favored by 5.5 over anyway except maybe Jacksonville and Oakland.

There was also a significant line movement here over the past week as the Bills were only 3.5 point favorites last week. I don’t understand why. Minnesota didn’t look good at all last week in a 17-3 home loss to the Lions, but the Bills didn’t look much better in a 37-22 to a New England team that is similar caliber to Detroit. The Vikings should be the right side here. I’d be more confident if this line was on the other side of 6 as teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more historically and I don’t think the Bills will finish 7-9 or better if they continue playing this poorly. If you can get +6, I’d do it, but at +5.5 this is a low confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 16 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +5.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

The Vikings got destroyed on Thursday Night Football last week, losing 42-10 in Green Bay to the Packers. However, there are arguments for why they’ll bounce back. The most obvious one is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be back from injury and he’ll be a significant improvement over Christian Ponder, the injury fill-in last week in Green Bay. They also return home, rather than playing in Lambeau, one of the toughest places to win in the NFL. On top of that, teams usually cover off a blowout Thursday Night loss as they’ve had extra time to stew over the loss and to make the necessary adjustments. Underdogs are 24-14 ATS off a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more since 1989.

However, I still like the Lions here. Part of the reason why that aforementioned trend is powerful is because usually there is a big overreaction line movement associated with that type of nationally televised loss. In this case, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite did as the Lions were 4 point favorites here last week. That made a lot of sense because that would mean the Lions would be 10 point favorites at home. Considering the Vikings were 9 point underdogs in Green Bay, who lost in Detroit, that makes a lot of sense.

Now the Vikings are 1 point favorites, despite their blowout loss last week. Obviously the fact that Calvin Johnson isn’t going to play this week has something to do with that line movement, but I think that 5 points of line movement is way too much. Calvin Johnson has barely made an impact over the past two weeks with this ankle injury so they’re already essentially playing without him. They lost at home to the Bills last week, which was a huge disappointment, but they could have easily won that game if kicker Alex Henery, who is now gone, didn’t miss all 3 field goals. The previous week, they won 24-17 in New York against the Jets with Calvin Johnson making minimal impact. They could easily do a similar thing here in Minnesota. Golden Tate has done a great job in Johnson’s “absence” over the past two weeks, as the former Seahawk has caught 15 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown in the last 2 games, showing why the Lions went out and signed him this off-season.

The Lions are also in the better spot as they will be favorites next week at home for New Orleans, while the Vikings will be underdogs on the road in Buffalo. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 106-72 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 93-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. The Lions should be the right side here.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)

I thought about waiting until we found out Teddy Bridgewater’s status for this one and who the starting quarterback would be for the Vikings, but I have a feeling this line is going to increase closer to game time so I want to lock it in right now at Green Bay -9. If I had to guess, Bridgewater will not play in this one, nursing a sore ankle on a short week, leaving Christian Ponder to be the starter. Once that’s announced, this line could be closer to 10.5-12. Even if Bridgewater plays, it’ll be at less than 100% on a short week after missing valuable practice time going into his 2nd NFL career start on the road. He’s clearly their most talented quarterback, but that might be too much for him right now.

I like the Packers in this one regardless as they’ve been very dominant at home recently. Aaron Rodgers is 21-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 27-4 straight up, with an absurd +416 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.42 points per game. They also have no distractions on the horizon with a random non-conference game against the Dolphins in Miami up next, while the Vikings will have to deal with the division leading Lions next week in Minnesota. Teams are 47-75 ATS before being 3+ home favorites since 2012 and teams are 57-87 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites. The Packers should be the right side and I’m not waiting around for this line to go up to 10 or higher.

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -9

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Falcons, Uncategorized, Vikings

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

Atlanta dominated last week at home against the Buccaneers, winning 56-14, moving the chains at an 82.05% rate, as opposed to 47.83% for the Buccaneers. However, now they go on the road to Minnesota and they haven’t had nearly as much success on the road in the Matt Ryan era. Since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came in 2008, they are 39-14 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 5.91 points per game, as opposed to 24-27 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game. They were blown out in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago. Minnesota isn’t as good as Cincinnati, but they don’t need to blow them out to cover this spread as 3 point underdogs.

The Falcons also will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-18 ATS after a Thursday Night win of 10 or more since 1989. This line has shifted 4.5 points since last week, from 1.5 points in favor of Minnesota to 3 points in favor of Atlanta. Obviously, some line movement would make sense after that type of blowout win, but this seems excessive. This suggests that the Falcons would be about 9 point favorites in Atlanta, even before you take into account the home and away disparity for the Falcons. Considering the Buccaneers were 6.5 point underdogs in Atlanta last week, that seems excessive. And yet, the public is obviously still all over Atlanta. It’s not a high confidence pick, but I’m going to fade the public and take Teddy Bridgewater in his NFL debut.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Minnesota +3

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

The Saints are 0-2, but I’m not too worried about them. If one of their offensive players had been able to tackle Tashaun Gipson on his eventual pick 6, there’s a very good chance they’d be 1-1 right now and heading home to face the Vikings as at least 12 point favorites. They weren’t able to do that and they lost as a result, but both of their first two games were very close and I’m not going to completely throw out my pre-season evaluation of this team just because of a few plays that didn’t go their way.

We’re getting a ton of line value with them as a result of public overreaction. The Saints as just 9.5 point home favorites is stealing considering how good they are at home. The Saints are 31-10 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 16-0-1 ATS at home over their last 16 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 17 of those games by an average of about 20.8 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. They should be able to win by double digits here against an average at best Vikings team.

As I mentioned, this line is an overreaction. The Saints are moving the chains at an 81.81% rate, as opposed to 80.28% for their opponents. 0-2 teams are 20-11 ATS as 5+ point favorites since 1989. That tells us two things. One this type of situation doesn’t happen very often. Two, when it does, it’s usually for a reason and that reason seems to be that the favorite team is still very good despite their record. Finally, on top of that, Drew Brees usually bounces back well. He’s 18-5 ATS off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline since 2008. He didn’t last week on the road, but he’s 13-2 at home in that situation. This is my pick of the week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Minnesota Vikings 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized, Vikings

New England Patriots (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

This is the overreaction line of the week. A week ago, most people had the Patriots as one of the top few teams in the NFL and had the Vikings as mediocre at best. The Vikings looked good blowing out a Rams team that had to turn to their 3rd string quarterback mid-game and the Patriots struggles in Miami against a capable Dolphins team, but I don’t think that should cause everyone to throw out all their pre-season evaluations.

Remember, the Patriots led 20-10 at the half and might have been able to hold on for the victory if Rob Gronkowski had been able to play more in the second half. His conditioning should be better now in his 2nd game back from that torn ACL. The Patriots are still a healthier and more talented team than last season and the Vikings still have an underwhelming roster on paper. There’s no reason this line should only be at 3 in favor of Patriots. They were 4.5 point favorites in Miami last week, while the Vikings were 3 point underdogs in St. Louis. This line would have been at least 6 last week, if not more.

Tom Brady and the Patriots thrive on everyone underestimating and discounting them. Tom Brady is 30-15 ATS in his career off of a loss. They’re also in the better spot here with no distractions on the horizon, as they host Oakland next. Road favorites are 44-32 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, the Vikings have to go to New Orleans next week, which is another very tough game. They could easily be double digit underdogs there. Teams are 34-52 ATS since 2002 as home dogs before being double digit underdogs and 17-40 ATS before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be double digit favorites.

New England Patriots 27 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: New England -3

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0)

This is another one where I wish I had bet earlier when the Rams were 6 point favorites before Sam Bradford tore his ACL. I thought the Rams were overrated before Bradford’s injury, as they finished 28th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.32% last season. However, this line falling to 3.5 because of Bradford’s injury seems like an overreaction. Bradford has completed 58.6% of his passes for 6.29 YPA for his career and was coming off of a significant injury that has caused better quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Robert Griffin, Carson Palmer) to struggle in their first year back.

Meanwhile, backup Shaun Hill has completed 62.0% of his passes for an average of 6.69 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions in his career. He’s going into his age 34 season and hasn’t started since 2010, but I don’t think he’s much of a downgrade. There’s simply no line value with the Vikings anymore. These two teams are essentially equal. In fact, gun to my head, I’m taking the Rams to fade the publicly backed underdog Vikings. Whenever the public thinks a team is going to pull an upset, they usually don’t. I expect the Rams to give 110% here in their first game without Bradford as well.

St. Louis Rams 20 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against spread: St. Louis -3.5

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Uncategorized, Vikings

RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

Peterson didn’t repeat the 2000 rushing yard season he had in 2012, but he still impressed, rushing for 1266 yards and 10 touchdowns on 279 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC. In his career, he’s rushed for 10,115 yards (already 27th all-time) and 86 touchdowns on 2033 carries, an average of 4.98 YPC. There is minor concern with his age as he goes into his age 29 season with 2033 career carries and he’s not the pass catcher that either Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy is, but he’s locked in as a top-3 running back.

310 carries for 1460 yards and 12 touchdowns, 32 catches for 250 yards (243 pts standard)

WR Greg Jennings (Minnesota)

Jennings was dominant in Green Bay from 2007-2011, averaging 2.12 yards per route run over that stretch (5532 yards on 2604 routes). However, he missed 3 games with injury in 2011 and then another 8 in 2012 and that seemed to sap his abilities. He averaged just 1.28 yards per route run in 2012 and, though he was healthier last year, he averaged just 1.62 yards per route run. Going into his age 31 season, there isn’t a lot of upside here.

61 catches for 760 yards and 4 touchdowns (100 pts standard)

WR Cordarelle Patterson (Minnesota)

The 29th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Patterson flashed his incredible athleticism, rushing for 158 yards and 3 touchdowns on 12 carries and returning 43 kickoffs for 1393 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also averaged 6.4 yards per catch after the catch and broke 10 tackles on 45 catches, but he showed serious issues with route running, catching just 10 passes farther than 10 yards downfield and just 3 passes farther than 20 yards downfield. He was limited primarily to short routes and screens and also dropped 5 passes. He caught 45 passes on 72 targets (62.5%) for 469 yards and 4 touchdowns on 292 routes run (1.61 yards per route run). He’s expected to have a bigger role in his 2nd year in the league and he has the natural ability to have a breakout year, but he’s only going into his age 23 season so there should be no surprises if he continues to be raw.

56 catches for 720 yards and 5 touchdowns, 120 rushing yards (114 pts standard)

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

Kyle Rudolph only averaged 1.11 yards per route run in his first 2 seasons in the league, as the big bodied tight end was used primarily as a blocker and ran just 30.1% of his routes off of the line of scrimmage.  In 2013, he looked on his way to a much better receiving year, as he averaged 1.34 yards per route run, running about 40.3% of his routes from off the line. Unfortunately, he went down for the season with a foot injury after 8 games. However, now he returns for his contract year and tight end guru Norv Turner is coming in. Rudolph has slimmed down to 6-6 260 from 275 and will be used more as a pass catcher and line up all over the formation in passing situations, much like Turner did with Antonio Gates in San Diego and Jordan Cameron in Cleveland. It wouldn’t be ridiculous to expect him to average 1.50 yards per route run (especially with better quarterback play) and for him to be 2nd on the team in receiving.

58 catches for 720 yards and 6 touchdowns (108 pts standard)

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