Vikings

Minnesota Vikings 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Vikings

The Vikings got an amazing season from Adrian Peterson, who came within 9 yards of the single season rushing record despite being less than a year removed from tearing his ACL and MCL. Without that, they would have been screwed. Peterson dragged them into the post-season, but the Vikings were never a legitimate threat to do anything in the post-season because of their quarterback play. Joe Webb played terribly, but I don’t know how much better Christian Ponder would have been, considering he was 80 of 142 for 693 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 4 outside games this year, all losses.

How big of an impact did Adrian Peterson have? Well, Christian Ponder needed a career best game against the Packers week 17 to get his yards per attempt up over 6 for the season. The Vikings finished averaging 6.1 YPA, 31st in the NFL. How much did they exceed the record of the average team who gains 6 or fewer yards per pass attempt? Try 6 wins (I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins).

Including this year’s Chiefs, 22 other teams since 2006 have averaged 6 or fewer yards per attempt. 20 of them won 5 or fewer games and none won more than 7. They averaged 3.8 wins per season and 14.6 points per game. The Vikings won 10 (in arguably the toughest division in football) and averaged 23.7 points per game. As talented as Adrian Peterson is, he almost definitely won’t have that kind of season again next year. He’s only come within 700 yards of his 2012 yardage total one other time in his career. Christian Ponder will need to step up if the Vikings are going to have any chance of returning to the playoffs in 2013.

It’s easy to blame Christian Ponder for his lack of production and he does have physical limitations, but he’s got nothing to work with in the passing game. Percy Harvin is oft injured and Kyle Rudolph is incredibly inconsistent. They used the 12th overall pick on him two years ago. They owe themselves a chance to evaluate Ponder in situation he can actually succeed in. Drafting Matt Kalil with the 4th overall pick last year was a start, but they need to continue to add talent around Ponder offensively.

Wide Receiver

Building around Ponder starts in the receiving corps. Things are already pretty desperate there, but if they have to trade Percy Harvin this off-season, they could get even worse. He’s their only reliable receiver. At the very least, they need to add a compliment opposite him, but they may need to replace him outright if they can’t get him signed long term and opt to trade him instead.

Middle Linebacker

Jasper Brinkley is a free agent. He was terrible in his first year as a starter, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 50th ranked middle linebacker out of 53 eligible, particularly struggling in coverage. The Vikings should use this opportunity to find a new starter at the position.

Outside Linebacker

Brinkley isn’t the Vikings’ only free agent starting linebacker. Erin Henderson is also a free agent. He was looking for a long term deal last off-season, after grading out among the best run stuffing linebackers in the NFL in 2011, but had to settle for just a 1 year, 2 million dollar deal from the Vikings because he was only a two-down player.

The Vikings gave him a chance to be a three down linebacker this year, but he got those duties taken away from him early in the season and given to Brinkley. He once again was solid against the run, but he struggled in coverage again, as well. It’s unlikely he’ll get much more than he got last off-season and it might not be from the Vikings at all, as reports have said he may not want to return. I don’t think the Vikings will care too much, but they do need to add two new starting linebackers, including one to serve as an every down linebacker along with the talented Chad Greenway.

Guard

Both Charlie Johnson and Brandon Fusco are under contract next season, but both really struggled this season at guard. On an otherwise great offensive line, Johnson and Fusco ranked 62nd and 73rd respectively on ProFootballFocus, among 81 eligible. They at least need some competition for them.

Defensive Tackle

There’s conflicting reports about Kevin Williams’ option, but it sounds like he is, in fact, under contract for 2 more years. Either way, he’s 33 in August and they could use an upgrade next to him. The rotating trio of LeTroy Guion, Christian Ballard, and Fred Evans is underwhelming.

Safety

Jamarca Sanford played alright at safety this year, after taking over for the terrible Mistral Raymond. However, he’s a free agent. Raymond isn’t, but I doubt the Vikings want to have him as their week 1 starter next year. If Sanford isn’t retained, he’ll have to be replaced.

Cornerback

Antoine Winfield is heading into his age 36 season, so it’s time to look at potential successors. It would make sense for them to take one this year, as cornerbacks take a while to develop. I know they have Chris Cook and Josh Robinson, but you need three cornerbacks in today’s NFL. Besides, Cook will be a free agent next off-season and Robinson was up and down as a 3rd round rookie and considering 3rd round picks only turn into starters about 30% of the time, he’s no sure thing. AJ Jefferson is also in the mix, but he played pretty poorly this year and he’ll be a free agent next off-season as well.

Offensive Tackle

Phil Loadholt was one of three starters who played very well for the Vikings this season on their offensive line. However, he’s a free agent and if he’s not retained, he’ll need to be replaced.

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Wild Card Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks, Packers, Vikings

For analysis on Minnesota click here
For analysis on Green Bay click here

The Vikings beat the Packers just last week so they will definitely hang within 8 of the Packers this week right? Well, that seems to be what everything thinks as the public is all over the Vikings. However, as is frequently the case when the public likes a dog, I expect them to be wrong. The Vikings are a completely different team on the road, especially outside. They are 7-1 at home, but 3-5 on the road, including 0-4 outside (making them 10-2 inside and 0-4 outside this season). In those 4 outside losses, Christian Ponder is 80 of 142 for 693 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

The Vikings lost by 9 in Green Bay earlier this season, despite 210 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson. He might do that again, but there’s also a very good chance he won’t and I think the Vikings will be in real trouble if he doesn’t. Even if he does, Ponder is definitely capable of wasting a great Peterson game, given that he’s outside, on the road, and playing with a bad elbow. In losses, Peterson has rushed for 762 yards on 104 attempts (7.3 YPC) this season. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is 12-4 ATS off a loss since 2009.

Green Bay Packers 34 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -8 (-110) 4 units

Minnesota Vikings: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Vikings

I’m going to do an awards article in a few days, but I’ll give a sneak pick. I think that Adrian Peterson should be MVP for taking the Vikings to the playoffs, despite their horrific pass offense. The Vikings averaged just 6.1 YPA this season, good for 31st in the NFL. In fact, it took a career best effort by Christian Ponder week 17 to even get them above 6 yards per attempt this season.

How much did they exceed the record of the average team who gains 6 or fewer yards per pass attempt? Try 6 wins (I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins). Including this year’s Chiefs, 22 other teams since 2006 have averaged 6 or fewer yards per attempt. 20 of them won 5 or fewer games and none won more than 7. They averaged 3.8 wins per season and 14.6 points per game.

The Vikings won 10 (in arguably the toughest division in football) and averaged 23.7 points per game. While what Peyton Manning has done with the Broncos is incredibly impressive, if you replace Manning with an average quarterback, they may have still made the playoffs (they made them with Tim Tebow last year). If you replace Peterson with an average back, the Vikings might not win 5 games.

Though Peterson’s value should enough to win him the MVP, it’s not enough for the Vikings to win a playoff game, I believe. Peterson alone makes them respectable, which is MVP worthy, but they need a good passing game to succeed in the postseason. They even needed a decent one to succeed in the regular season. In wins, Adrian Peterson rushed for 1335 yards on 244 attempts (5.5 YPA) and in losses he rushed for 762 yards on 104 attempts (7.3 YPC).

Meanwhile, in wins Ponder has completed 64.2% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while in losses Ponder completed 59.4% for an average of 5.6 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Peterson might have had an amazing season, but if he had trouble winning games all by himself in the regular season (as anyone would, even Peyton Manning), how he is going to do it in the postseason?

Christian Ponder certainly won’t play better in the postseason than the regular season. Not only are they tougher opponents, but they’ll all be on the road, where Ponder completes 3% fewer of his passes for an average of 1.7 yards per attempt fewer and a 7:6 TD:INT ratio as opposed to a 11:6 one. He’s also 3-5 on the road, as opposed to 7-1 at home. Expect the Vikings to be one and done.

Projected fate: Lose to Packers in Wild Card round

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Packers, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-6)

There are many reasons to like the Vikings here. They’ve played great football at home, going 6-1 with wins over San Francisco and Chicago, as opposed to 3-4 on the road. They played the Packers tight a few weeks back and that was in Green Bay. They’re also playing very good football right now, winning 3 in a row since that Green Bay game. In spite of all this, we’re getting more than a field goal with them at +3.5 and still the public is on Green Bay and the public always loses money in the long run.

We are getting some line value with the Vikings because, while the Packers rank 6th in net points per drive at 0.50, the Vikings rank 16th at 0.04. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and shift the line in Minnesota’s favor 2.5 points for home field, you get that Green Bay should be only favored by 2.5, which isn’t much, but that is on the other side of that key field goal number. DVOA backs that up as Green Bay ranks 5th and 4th in regular and weighted DVOA, while the Vikings rank 16th and 19th respectively.

In spite of that, I’m not going against the Packers right now. Somehow the preseason favorites have managed to win 9 of 10 and fly under the radar. It hasn’t always been pretty, but last week against Tennessee it was (at least for them) in a huge blowout win and in spite of injuries, they are once again red hot at the right time this season. They are 11-4 and could easily be 12-3 if not for the replacement refs, which is right around where a lot of people had them at this point before the season (there was no way they were going to match 15 wins). Why aren’t they being talked about more? I bet Aaron Rodgers is asking that same question and he always plays very well when slighted.

Speaking of being slighted, why is Aaron Rodgers (who leads the NFL in QB rating), not being talked about as a legitimate MVP candidate. If he can win here and eliminate Adrian Peterson and the Vikings, I think he should be maybe the MVP front runner considering all the injuries around him on offense (Peterson is the favorite if the Vikings can make the playoffs). I think that’s exactly what will happen. Rodgers is 22-10 ATS on the road as dogs of favorites of 6 or fewer in his career. It’s not a big play and I wish the line were -3 flat, but I like the Packers.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 14 (+1)

Record: 9-6

Net points per drive: 0.04 (16th)

DVOA: -0.8% (16th)

Weighted DVOA: -4.4% (19th)

Studs

RT Phil Loadholt: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 3 attempts

FS Harrison Smith: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 sack on 2 blitzes, 1 penalty

CB Antoine Winfield: Allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

LE Everson Griffen: 2 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop

K Blair Walsh: 6 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 66.8 yards per kickoff, 20.2 opponent’s average starting distance, 3/3 FG (39, 41, 56)

Duds

LG Charlie Johnson: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 7 attempts

RG Brandon Fusco: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 3 attempts

TE John Carlson: Didn’t catch a pass on 2 attempts on 13 pass snaps, 1 drop

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Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Texans, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (8-6) at Houston Texans (12-2)

The Vikings kept their playoff hopes alive last week, as they are one of many 8-6 teams in the NFC. They are long shot hopes, however. Not only do they not control their own destiny, their final 2 games are against Houston and Green Bay, two of the better teams in the NFL. Making matters worse, the Vikings are in a bad spot trends wise here.

Teams are 45-19 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. The Texans have no distractions on the horizon and teams generally cover in this situation. Going off that, non-conference home favorites are 37-18 ATS before being divisional road favorites since 2002. The Vikings, meanwhile, have a distraction next week, as they have that aforementioned Green Bay game. Non-divisional road dogs are 47-72 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road dogs.

The Vikings also struggle mightily on the road, winning just 2 of 7 games on the road. Those games were in Detroit and St. Louis respectively, so it’s not like they were beating up on some of the elite teams in the NFL, like the Texans are. Those also happen to be the only two road games they’ve covered in this season. For comparison, they are 6-1 (5-1-1 ATS) at home.

I also feel like they’re a little overrated. Everyone wants to talk about Adrian Peterson, but their passing offense is miserable. This is still a passing league, you have to be able to pass, especially against a team like Houston. As evidence of this, they are 2-4 this year when Ponder completes 60% or fewer of his passes and 4-2 when Adrian Peterson rushes for 5.0 yards per carry or less. However, because of Peterson, we’re able to actually get line value here with Houston and not have Houston be a heavy publicly backed favorite.

Houston ranks 6th in net points per drive at 0.56, while Minnesota ranks 19th at -0.07. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Houston should be favored by 9, not huge line value, but significant enough when combined with all the aforementioned trends, especially with the public not on Houston heavily. DVOA supports this -9 calculated line, as Houston ranks 8th and 10th in regular and weighted DVOA respectively, while Minnesota ranks 20th and 23rd respectively.

The AFC, the weaker conference, is 6-15 ATS as favorites against the NFC this year, which is part of why this isn’t a significant play. The other reason is just my hatred of laying more than a touchdown. The Texans should be the right side, however, and get another convincing win here. The Texans have 7 wins by 8 or more, while the Vikings have 5 such losses.

Public lean: Houston (50% range)

Sharps lean: MIN 13 HOU 6

Final thoughts: No change.

Houston Texans 24 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Houston -7.5 (-110) 2 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 20 (+6)

Record: 8-6

Net points per drive: -0.07 (19th)

DVOA: -5.3% (20th)

Weighted DVOA: -10.0% (23rd)

The Vikings are 8-6, but with games against the Texans and Packers left on their schedule, it’s going to be very, very hard for them to make the playoffs. 9-7 looks like a best case scenario for them (at home for Green Bay seems like the easier win, as they’re 6-1 at home this year, 6-0 on Sundays, with that one loss on Thursday Night). At 9-7, they’ll need help to make the playoffs and I don’t think they’ll get it. Chicago can easily win out against Arizona and Detroit and the Giants can also win out against Baltimore and Philadelphia.

Studs

RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 212 yards (111 after contact) and a touchdown on 24 attempts, 4 broken tackles, allowed 1 sack on 4 pass block snaps

C John Sullivan: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 106 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts

DT Kevin Williams: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 48 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 assist

K Blair Walsh: 8 kickoffs, 6 touchbacks, 71.3 yards per kickoff, 18.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 5/5 FG (38, 42, 50, 51, 53)

Duds

MLB Jasper Brinkley: Allowed 4 catches for 53 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

SS Jamarca Sanford: 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 1 attempt

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Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Rams, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (6-6-1)

The Vikings won last week as home dogs against the Bears, but I’m still not sure about them. Christian Ponder once again had a terrible game, completing 11 of 17 for 91 yards and an interception. In his last 7 games, he’s 107 of 191 (56.0%) for 970 yards (5.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Adrian Peterson is awesome, but you can’t win in the NFL without at least decent quarterback play.

Illustrating this, they are 2-4 this year when Ponder completes 60% or fewer of his passes and 4-2 when Adrian Peterson rushes for 5.0 yards per carry or less. Against Green Bay, Peterson went off for 210 yards and they still lost 23-14. Last week, they beat the Bears by 7, but not because of their offense. Their defense returned one Jay Cutler interception for a touchdown and another one to the goal line, setting the Vikings up with an easy touchdown. Their offense only really led one good drive all game and Peterson did almost all of the work. Unless Ponder can start playing at least serviceably, they’re going to struggle to consistently lead good drives.

That win last week pushed the Vikings at 6-1 SU at home, as opposed to 1-5 SU on the road, and that one home loss was against Tampa Bay on a Thursday Night, when weird things happen. At home, they are 5-2 ATS and they are 1-5 ATS on the road. Maybe it shouldn’t be so surprising that they upset the Bears last week, especially in kind of a fluky way. They’re a good home team. Winning on the road is another issue. That same Bears team blew them out on the road 2 weeks prior.

They’re also in a bad spot as non-divisional road dogs off a win as divisional home dogs. Teams are 33-52 ATS in this spot since 1989. After such a huge divisional win last week, they could easily be flat for St. Louis. Going off that, the Vikings are in the middle of a very tough stretch right now. Since week 10, they’ve faced the Lions, the Bears, the Packers, and the Bears. Now they have the Rams before finishing up with the Texans and the Packers. They’ve played 4 straight games against divisional foes and then after this they have an 11-2 Houston squad and the division leading Packers. Think they might be in a bit of a breather game situation against the Rams?

Speaking of those Rams, they’re actually playing some nice football lately. Since their bye, they’ve covered in 4 of 5, with that one non-cover coming against the Jets, in a game that the Jets had all the trends on their side. They tied the 49ers, beat the 49ers, and got road wins as dogs in Buffalo and Arizona as dogs. Improved health on their offensive line is to thank and this week they get even healthier as Danny Amendola is expected to return.

We are getting some line value with the Vikings using the net points per drive method as that says this line should be a pick em. The Vikings are 20th in net points per drive at -0.14, while the Rams are 25th at -0.40. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and factor in 2.5 points for home field, we get that this line should be a true pick em. However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA, which has the Vikings just one spot better than the Rams, who are 19th, and it certainly doesn’t hold up to weighted DVOA, which weights more heavily recent games. The Rams rank 19th in that one as well, but the Vikings are 23rd.

Finally, I also really like that the public is all over Minnesota off of that win against the Bears. I love fading the public on heavy leans, especially heavy leans on dogs. The public always loses money in the long run. This is a breather game for a Vikings team that struggles to move the ball aerially and to play on the road against an underrated and finally healthy Rams team. I like the Rams for a significant play. They’re also my survivor pick in a bad week for survivor picks.

Public lean: Minnesota (70% range)

St. Louis Rams 20 Minnesota Vikings 12 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA)

Pick against spread: St. Louis -2.5 (-110) 3 units

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Minnesota Vikings: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Vikings

Last week: 20 (+0)

Record: 7-6

Net points per drive: -0.14 (20th)

DVOA: -5.1% (18th)

Weighted DVOA: -8.8% (24th)

The Vikings pulled the huge upset at home over the Bears, but things don’t get easier as they have to face the suddenly surging Rams in St. Louis, the Texans in Houston, and then head home to face the Packers. Even Adrian Peterson might not be enough to save them from 7-9. They’ll need Christian Ponder to play like he did when they were 5-2.

Studs

RB Adrian Peterson: Rushed for 154 yards (124 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 31 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 16 yards on 2 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps

MLB Jasper Brinkley: 8 solo tackles, 2 assist, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 5 catches for 32 yards on 8 attempts, 2 pass deflections

CB Antoine Winfield: Allowed 4 catches for 35 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

FS Harrison Smith: Allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry 4 blitzes

LOLB Erin Henderson: 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, allowed 2 catches for 15 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection

LE Brian Robison: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 54 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle

DT Letroy Guion: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

DT Christian Ballard: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

QB Christian Ponder: 11 of 17 for 91 yards and an interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop, 65.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 19 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 3 of 6)

RT Phil Loadholt: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 20 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

C John Sullivan: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass block snaps, run blocked for 67 yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts

LT Matt Kalil: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

TE Kyle Rudolph: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 15 pass snaps

ROLB Chad Greenway: Allowed 5 catches for 47 yards on 7 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

DT Kevin Williams: 2 quarterback hurries on 43 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 missed tackles

CB AJ Jefferson: 1 kickoff return for 20 yards, 1 fumble, allowed 4 catches for 99 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Chicago Bears (8-4)

The Bears lost last week in upset fashion, but they still have a very good chance to be this year’s team that goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye because the 49ers also lost. If they win 1 more game over their final 4 games than the 49ers do, they will almost definitely be the NFC’s #2 seed this year and they are really the only candidate remaining to fulfill that trend, something that’s happened every year in at least the last decade.

The Seahawks are also a candidate, but they would have to win out, something that could be tough considering the impending suspensions of their cornerbacks. The Bears can easily win out as they are expected to be favorites in every game the rest of the way, including next week at home for Green Bay, which will be by far their toughest game the rest of the way. The 49ers, meanwhile, have to go to New England and Seattle, and will be dogs in at least one, maybe both of those games.

For this reason, I’m not betting against the Bears as small or medium sized favorites the rest of the way. They’re just 3 point favorites here and that definitely counts. Besides, that line is way too small anyway. The Bears rank 8th in net points per drive at 0.46, while the Vikings rank 21st at -0.18. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and push it 3 points in Minnesota’s direction to account for Minnesota’s home field, you get a real line of Chicago -4. That also checks out with DVOA, as these two teams rank 6th and 19th respectively.

That also doesn’t take into account that Jay Cutler is healthy for the Bears. That figure might be skewed by the 1 ½ games that Cutler missed. Excluding the Houston game, in which he got hurt before halftime, the Bears are actually 13-2 straight up in Jay Cutler’s last 15 starts with one of those losses being a very excusable one in Green Bay on a short week. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, again excluding that Houston game, the Bears are 15-5 and score 27.5 points per game. When he doesn’t, including that Houston game, they are 1-7 and average just 12.3 points per game.

That isn’t all him. For instance, Matt Forte missed a few of those games as well and Caleb Hanie, who started 5 of those games in his absence, is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Still, it shows he has a huge value to this team. He doesn’t put up flashy stats and his body language can be off putting, but the numbers don’t lie. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. Brandon Marshall is great, but they don’t have another receiver and their offensive line is atrocious. Cutler has done a great job of leading drives in spite of this and he is actually very tough to sack.

That also doesn’t take into account that Harvin is hurt for the Vikings and that the Vikings have no momentum right now. Christian Ponder has been terrible lately, going 96 of 174 (55.2%) for 879 yards (5.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in his last 6 games. Having Harvin out certainly doesn’t help. The Vikings, while they rank 19th in DVOA, rank 23rd in weighted DVOA, which puts more weight on more recent games, and have really been playing like a bottom-5 team for the last 5-6 weeks.

The Bears have some injuries, as well, as Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings expected to miss this game as well. Urlacher’s injury isn’t a huge deal because he’s overrated at this point in his career and Jennings’ won’t matter, at least in this game, because Christian Ponder is too limited to take advantage. Adrian Peterson will go bonkers on an overrated (22nd in YPC allowed) and Urlacher-less Bears’ run defense because that’s like his thing, but Christian Ponder will struggle against the Bears’ #3 pass defense, even without Jennings. They’ve still got plenty of talented defensive backs and good depth and Ponder just isn’t very good.

As we saw last week, Peterson alone can’t carry this team to victory. In fact, as good as Peterson is, this team is only 1-4 when Ponder completes fewer than 60% of his passes this season. Conversely, they’re actually 3-2 on the rare occasions when Peterson has been held to less than 5 YPC. They need a good game from Ponder here to pull off the home upset and I don’t think they’ll get it.

One trend is on Chicago’s side. Teams are 26-12 ATS off a home loss in overtime, exclude road dogs, since 2002. When the team is road favorites like the Bears are here, the ATS record is 14-5. Besides, while the Bears have admittedly had some issues with higher quality opponents, they’ve blown out almost every average or worse team they’ve faced this season. They beat Indianapolis by 20, St. Louis by 17, Dallas by 16, Jacksonville by 38, Detroit by 6 (they had them shutout for 59 ½ minutes, before the Lions got a late backdoor cover 13-7), Carolina by 1 (the one true exception), Tennessee by 31, and then these Vikings by 18 two weeks ago. This should be another blowout win for the Bears.

Public lean: Chicago (60% range)

Sharps lean: MIN 21 CHI 10

Final thoughts: The other sharps lean I’m totally disagreeing with. I can’t see Chicago losing this football game.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -3 (-110) 3 units

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