Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) at New York Jets (5-9)

The Jets had intentions of competing in 2019, after an off-season spending spree, but they’ve had a disappointing season and sit at just 5-9, out of the playoff race entirely, with two weeks left in the season. They’ve actually been even worse than their record suggests, ranking 27th in first down rate differential at -4.15%, despite having tied for the easiest schedule in the league, with a 43% combined opponents record. 

Part of that is they were without quarterback Sam Darnold for 3 games early in the season, but his return hasn’t come close to solving all of their problems. Since week 7, they rank 18th in first down rate differential at -1.06%, which isn’t terrible, unless you consider that they’ve faced teams that rank 22nd or worse in first down rate differential in 7 of 9 games over that stretch. The two exceptions were the Patriots and Ravens, games against top level teams in which they lost the first down rate battle by 10.27% and 22.84% respectively.

This week the Jets face the Steelers. On offense, the Steelers resemble the terrible teams the Jets have mostly faced in recent weeks, ranking 26th in first down rate at 31.87%, but defensively they resemble the Patriots and Ravens, ranking 5th in first down rate allowed at 33.15%. I have this line calculated at Pittsburgh -3, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the visiting Steelers, who are favored by 2.5 points, but there’s isn’t nearly enough here for this game to be worth betting. 

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 New York Jets 10

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -2.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, NFL Picks

New York Giants (3-11) at Washington Redskins (3-11)

Both of these teams are 3-11 and have had pretty horrible seasons, but the Giants have been the noticeably better of these two teams, holding a significant edge in point differential -99 to -132, despite the Redskins holding a significant edge in turnover margin +2 to -15. Turnover margins tend to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so the Redskins aren’t necessarily going to win the turnover battle this week just because they have the advantage in that metric on the season. In terms of first down rate differential, the Giants have the edge at -2.02% to -6.07%. Unfortunately, we’ve lost a lot of line value with the Giants in the past week, as the Redskins were favored by 3 points on the early line last week, but this line is now even. I have the Giants calculated as 1.5 points, so they should be the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

New York Giants 17 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants PK

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (12-2) at Cleveland Browns (6-8)

When these two division rivals met back in week 4, the Browns won somewhat easily by a final score of 40-25, resulting in both teams being 2-2 after 4 games. At the time, it looked like a sign of things to come, as the Browns were the pre-season favorite to win the division. However, while the Browns have fallen to 6-8 and out of the playoff race entirely, the Ravens haven’t lost since that first matchup against the Browns way back in week 4.

I would expect this matchup to be much more similar to how these teams have played in the past 10 games than how they played in week 4. While the Browns rank just 23rd in first down rate differential on the season at -2.31% and are the without talented defensive end duo of Myles Garrett (suspension) and Olivier Vernon (injury), the Ravens have completely reinvented their defense since the start of the season and are the most complete team in football. They have added cornerback Marcus Peters and middle linebacker Josh Bynes, have gotten breakout play from edge defender Tyus Bowser and safety Chuck Clark, and have gotten cornerback Jimmy Smith back from injury.

Peters was their most important addition and since adding him in week 7, the Ravens rank 2nd in first down rate allowed at 30.18%, after ranking 24th in first down rate differential through the first 6 games of the season at 37.95%. Lamar Jackson and this offense gets by far the most attention on this team, but they’ve been a dominant unit the whole season, ranking 5th in first down rate through the first 6 games of the season at 40.68% and 1st in the past 8 games at 43.30%. The defensive improvement is the reason why this team now looks unbeatable. Since week 7, the Ravens have a ridiculous +13.11% first down rate differential, which is best in the NFL by a wide margin (the second ranked team is at +5.32%).

With the Ravens playing as well as they are and the Browns treading water at best, I have this line calculated at Baltimore -11. The Browns have recognizable stars on both sides of the ball, but are a top heavy roster with poor depth, so they might still be a little overrated, even with the way their season has gone. Some think that their previous victory over the Ravens is proof that they are the Ravens’ Achilles heel, but these are not the same teams as the last time and history suggests the Ravens actually have a better chance of covering this spread because they lost the previous matchup. Divisional road favorites of 3+ are 39-27 ATS since 1989 in a same season, regular season rematch against a team that beat them previously as home favorites. There’s not enough here to for the Ravens to be worth betting, but I like them for pick ‘em purposes.

Baltimore Ravens 33 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -10

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Chiefs, NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) at Chicago Bears (7-7)

The now 7-7 Bears were officially eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Packers in Green Bay last week, a big disappointment for a team that went 12-4 a year ago. The Bears’ disappointing season isn’t a huge surprise though. They had the easiest schedule in the NFL last season and lost a pair of key defenders in free agency (safety Adrian Amos and cornerback Bryce Callahan) and their defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to the Broncos, a big blow to a defense that led the NFL in first down rate allowed by more than 2% last season. Their defense has still been strong, ranking 4th in first down rate allowed at 32.64%, but they’ve been more than 2% worse than last year’s dominant unit, while their offense has fallen to 27th in first down rate at 31.86%, struggling mightily against a tougher slate of defenses than last season.

That being said, I think we are getting some line value with the Bears as 6-point home underdogs against the Chiefs. This line suggests the Bears would be 11-point underdogs in Kansas City, but the Bears were just 4-point underdogs in Green Bay last week and held their own, with a chance to tie the game on the final drive. Their offense is a major problem, but their defense is still one of the best in the NFL, especially with stud defensive end Akiem Hicks back healthy. I have this line calculated at Chicago +3, so we’re getting good line value with them at +6. I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Bears because they could be flat after being eliminated from the post-season last week, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Final Update: Hicks was ruled out on Saturday despite getting a full practice in on Friday. This line has moved to a full touchdown to compensate, but I’m dropping this down to a no confidence pick. Hicks didn’t suffer a setback in his return against the Packers last week and would almost definitely be playing if the Bears hadn’t been eliminated, but the Bears are understandably being cautious with him. That could effect the psyche of this whole team in a meaningless game and cause some players to give less than 100%, even in a nationally televised game. That more than the actual football impact of Hicks not being on the field is why I’m dropping this to a no confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (4-9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)

The Seahawks are 11-3 and control their own destiny for a first round bye, but most of their wins have been close, with all but one win coming by 8 points or fewer. In fact, their record in games decided by more than a single score is just 1-2. A win is a win for standings purposes, but blowout wins tend to be more predictive of future success than close wins. Their point differential of +26 is the worst ever for a 11-3 team and ranks just 11th in the NFL. In first down rate differential, they are even worse, ranking 19th in the league at -0.80%. Russell Wilson is a great quarterback who has been able to pull out close wins, but the rest of this team is pretty underwhelming when you compare them to the other contenders and they haven’t shown the ability to blow out anyone, even bad teams.

Their one win by more than one score came against the Cardinals, who happen to be their opponents this week. The Cardinals have 5 losses by double digits and 4 losses by 17 or more points, but their 17-point home loss to the Seahawks in week 4 was closer than the final score suggested, as the Seahawks had just a +3.39% first down differential in the game, with the margin of victory being inflated by a Seattle return touchdown and a pair of missed field goals by the Cardinals. 

The previous matchup between these two teams was in Arizona and this matchup is in Seattle, but the Seahawks are far from 100%. They’re getting defensive end Ezekiel Ansah back from injury this week, but will remain without top defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and will likely be without their top-2 defensive backs, Shaq Griffin and Quandre Diggs, and left tackle Duane Brown, all of whom did not practice on Friday. The Cardinals could easily keep this game within 10 points. They rank 28th in the NFL in first down rate differential on the season at -5.28%, but they aren’t that far behind the 19th ranked Seahawks in that metric, so my calculated line is Seattle -7.5. This is a low confidence pick for now, but If left guard Justin Pugh and wide receiver Christian Kirk are both able to play and/or this line moves up to 10, I would bet on the Cardinals.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona +9.5

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Saints, Titans

New Orleans Saints (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)

Since turning to backup quarterback Ryan Tannehill in week 7, the Titans rank 5th in the NFL in first down rate differential at +4.37%. They are 6-2 over that stretch, after starting 2-4, with their only losses coming in games against the Panthers and Texans that they easily could have won if a few snaps went differently. Tannehill isn’t just game-managing this team either, as the Titans’ defense has actually been pretty underwhelming over that stretch due to injury absences, ranking 24th in first down rate differential at 37.28%, after ranking 4th at 30.93% through the first 6 games of the season, and 4th at 32.77% in 2018. The offense, which ranks 2nd in first down rate at 42.18% since Tannehill became the starter, has carried this team, after ranking 26th at 32.69% through the first 6 games of the season, and 24th at 34.12% in 2018. 

That being said, the Titans offense is unlikely to be quite this good going forward. They have talent around the quarterback position and Tannehill has proven he can be a capable starter, but it’s unlikely he has suddenly become a top level quarterback in his 8th season in the league. It would be reasonable to expect regression from him going forward, which the defense will need to compensate for. Unfortunately, their defense remains banged up, with edge defender Cameron Wake and cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler still out and defensive end Jeffery Simmons possibly joining them after missing practice on Friday with a lingering knee issue.

The Titans are still a competitive opponent, but we’re not getting the line value with them that we were a few weeks ago. With a dominant Saints team coming to town, the Titans are only 2.5-point home underdogs. The Saints lost a pair of key defensive linemen in their loss to the 49ers a couple weeks ago, with Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins done for the year, and their defense ranks just 35.78% in first down rate allowed at 17th even with Davenport and Rankins playing most of the season, but their offense is definitely good enough to compensate. 

They have a 41.41% first down rate when Brees is on the field, which would be second best in the NFL on the season, and that arguably understates how good their offense will be going forward. They had a 43.48% first down rate differential in Brees’ starts last season and have been even better than that in recent weeks, with a 45.19% first down rate over the past 4 games. We’re still getting a little bit of line value with the Titans, as I have this line calculated at New Orleans -1, but we’re not getting enough line value with the Titans at +2.5 for them to be worth betting. The money line at +115 is worth a small play because the Titans odds of winning this game are close to 50/50, but this is a low confidence pick for pick ‘em purposes, unless the line moves up to a full field goal.

Final Update: Not only is Simmons out for the Titans, but running back Derrick Henry is a surprise inactive as well. Henry’s absence is obviously big, but, beyond the impact his absence will have on this team, the reasoning behind Henry being inactive is even more important to predicting this game. Due to how tiebreakers work, because this is a non-conference game, this is actually a rare case of a week 16 game not mattering at all for a potential playoff qualifier. With the Texans winning yesterday, the Titans have been eliminated from contention for a division title, but, regardless of the outcome of this game against the Saints, the Titans can still clinch a wild card berth if they beat the Texans next week and the Steelers lose one of their next two games. If the Steelers win out or the Titans lose to the Texans next week, the Titans are eliminated regardless of what happens in this non-conference matchup with the Saints. This line has skyrocketed to 3.5, but I’m really concerned about the Titans’ psyche in a meaningless game, so I’m switching this pick to New Orleans for a no confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: None

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (5-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-8)

The Kyle Allen era in Carolina got off to a great start, as the 2018 undrafted free agent won his first 4 starts after taking over for an injured Cam Newton week 3, but things have gone south in a hurry. Since that 4-game winning streak, the Panthers have lost 7 of 8 games to fall out of playoff contention completely. Over that stretch, they have the 3rd worst first down rate differential in the league at -4.42%. 

The offense actually hasn’t been the problem, as they’ve had a 36.65% first down rate over that stretch, 11th in the NFL, but their defense, which ranked 7th in first down rate allowed at 33.97% in the first 6 games of the season, but has fallen to 31st in first down rate allowed at 41.07% over the past 8 games. The Panthers fired head coach and de facto defensive coordinator Ron Rivera a couple weeks ago, but it hasn’t seemed to make a difference in two games against the Falcons and Seahawks.

After firing their head coach a couple weeks ago, the Panthers are now benching Allen for third round rookie Will Grier. Even though the offense hasn’t really been the problem, it’s understandable why the Panthers would make this decision. Allen hasn’t played well, with the offense being carried by feature back Christian McCaffrey and #1 wide receiver DJ Moore, and, in a lost season, it’s worth giving Grier a shot. 

I don’t have high expectations for Grier though. He struggled in the pre-season, losing the backup job to Allen as a result, and could also be without starting wide receiver Curtis Samuel after he picked up an injury at practice this week. The Panthers are also in a tough spot this week, playing a meaningless non-conference matchup before a big divisional home matchup against the Saints to close out the season next week. Teams are 20-42 ATS since 2016 before being 7+ point home underdogs and the Panthers are 10.5-point home underdogs on the early line.

This isn’t an easy matchup for the Panthers either, on the road in Indianapolis. The Colts are just 6-8, but they’ve played better than their record has suggested, ranking 16th in first down rate differential at -0.17%. They got blown out against the Saints last week, but before that their only loss by more than a touchdown came against the Titans in a game in which the Colts were about to take the lead in the 4th quarter before a blocked kick returned for a touchdown. I wouldn’t recommend betting on the Colts this week because they could be flat after getting eliminated from post-season contention last week, but I think they’ll be more focused because they were just blown out, so they should be able to take care of business against an inferior team in a bad spot.

Indianapolis Colts 26 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -6.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Broncos, Lions, NFL Picks

Detroit Lions (3-10-1) at Denver Broncos (5-9)

Earlier in the season, the Broncos were an underrated team, but the injuries have started to pile up for them. Already without right tackle Ja’Wuan James for most of the season, the Broncos are now also without right guard Ronald Leary, while their defense is missing defensive linemen Derek Wolfe and Adam Gotsis and possibly Dre’Mont Jones and DeMarcus Walker, leaving them very thin upfront. On top of that, they’ll be without Pro-Bowl caliber safety Kareem Jackson for the rest of the season with suspension, which is their single biggest absence.

Despite those absences, the Broncos are favored by a touchdown at home over the Lions. The Lions’ season has been derailed by injuries, most notably quarterback Matt Stafford, but also right tackle Ricky Wagner, wide receiver Marvin Jones, and defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Da’Shawn Hand, but the Broncos shouldn’t be favored by this many points over anyone. In fact, I have these two teams close to equal in my roster rankings, with the Broncos 27th and the Lions 29th. 

My calculated line is Denver -3, so we’re getting significant line value with the Lions. I don’t want to bet heavily on the Lions, especially since this could be a look ahead spot with a home game against the Packers on deck (teams are 20-42 ATS since 2016 before being 7+ point home underdogs and the Lions are 9.5-point home underdogs on the early line), but the Lions are a solid play this week. This should be a close, low scoring game between two very underwhelming teams.

Denver Broncos 17 Detroit Lions 13

Pick against the spread: Detroit +7

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Rams

Los Angeles Rams (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

The 49ers lost their 3rd game of the season last week, at home to the Falcons. Like their first two losses, this loss was decided on the last meaningful play of the game, but, even though the Falcons have played better than their 5-9 suggests, the Falcons are clearly different than the first two teams against whom the 49ers lost, the Ravens and Seahawks, who are a combined 23-5 on the season.

While I didn’t expect the 49ers to lose outright last week, it’s not all that surprising that the 49ers had trouble against the Falcons. Not only were the Falcons an underrated team that is better than their record, but the 49ers were in a tough spot after an emotional win over the Saints and missing several key players, like cornerbacks Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams and defensive end Dee Ford. 

Ford remains out, but Sherman and Williams are not listed on the injury report, which is a big boost for them ahead of their matchup with the Rams this week. The Rams lost badly last week in Dallas by score of 44-21, but the Cowboys are an underrated team, so I don’t hold that loss against them that much. Even with that bad loss included, the Rams rank 10th in first down rate differential at +2.55% and have been even better since acquiring cornerback Jalen Ramsey before week 7, ranking 9th in first down rate differential over that stretch at +3.30%, led by a defense that ranks 4th in first down rate allowed over that stretch at 31.73%. The Rams won’t be an easy matchup for the 49ers.

The Rams are also in a slightly better spot. I don’t expect the 49ers to be flat, coming off of a loss and needing a win to keep pace with the Seahawks in the division before next week’s rematch in Seattle, but the 49ers already beat the Rams once this season in Los Angeles, while the Rams are fighting for their playoff lives and are playing their final difficult game of the season, with a home game against the Cardinals to finish out the regular season on deck. Road underdogs are 79-54 ATS since 2002 in a regular season rematch against an opponent that they previously lost to as home favorites. On top of that, underdogs of 6+ are 82-69 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of 6+ and the early line has the Rams favored by 7 next week against the Cardinals. There’s not quite enough here for the Rams to be worth betting, but they should be the right side.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +6.5

Confidence: Low

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2019 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Patriots

Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)

The Bills got a huge win last week, not only clinching a playoff spot in the process, but giving them their first double digit win total since 1999 and keeping them alive in the battle for the division with the New England Patriots, who they play this week in the first meaningful late season matchup between the Bills and Patriots in decades. The Bills rank 11th in first down rate differential at +2.25%, which more or less lines up with their 10-4 record, but that’s partially inflated by an easy schedule. Even with some tougher games in recent weeks, the Bills still rank tied for last in the NFL in opponents record at 43%. My roster rankings have the Bills 17th, which is I think is more in line with how they would play against an average schedule.

The Patriots had an easy schedule earlier in the year, but they’ve had a tough schedule over the past several weeks and overall have a 48% opponents record. Because these two teams are in the same division, they’ve had pretty similar schedules, but the Patriots have faced a first place schedule because they won the division last year and those first place teams (Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs) are the only teams they’ve lost to. Against teams that the Bills have also faced, the Patriots are 10-1 with a +18.00 points per game margin. The Bills are 8-3 against those teams, but with just a +7.00 point per game margin. The Patriots have also been significantly better statistically on the season than the Bills, ranking 3rd in first down rate differential at 32.59%, despite facing the Chiefs and Texans instead of the Broncos and the Marcus Mariota led Titans.

Given that, I don’t expect the Bills to be able to keep this game within a score in New England. The Patriots are almost an automatic bet at home when favored by less than a touchdown, going 47-19 ATS with Tom Brady under center, as they almost always manage to find a way to win by at least a touchdown at home. Brady and this Patriots offense could have a hard time putting points on the board, with Brady playing at less than 100% with a receiving corps that he hasn’t been able to get in rhythm with due to missed practice time, against a Bills defense that ranks 3rd in first down rate allowed, but the Bills’ offense ranks just 20th in first down rate, despite an easy schedule, and young quarterback Josh Allen is almost a guarantee to make at least a couple mistakes against a well-coached Patriots defense that ranks first in first down rate allowed by a wide margin at 28.66% (2nd place ranked team is 31.56%). Even if it’s not pretty, I expect the Patriots to win by at least a touchdown.

New England Patriots 20 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against the spread: New England -6.5

Confidence: Medium