Last week
Against the Spread: 4-11
Straight Up: 10-5
Pick of the Week: 1-0
High Confidence: 1-0
Medium Confidence: 1-4
Low Confidence: 1-3
No Confidence: 0-4
Upset Picks: 0-1
On the season
Against the Spread: 104-71-1 (.594)
Straight Up: 116-59-1 (.663)
Pick of the Week: 8-4
High Confidence: 8-7
Medium Confidence: 40-17
Low Confidence: 24-20-1
No Confidence: 24-23
Upset Picks: 13-13
Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
This is probably the game I have a least feel for this week. On one hand, the Browns are a little bit better than the Falcons and this line at 3 suggests that these two teams are even with homefield advantage. The Browns rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.40% rate, as opposed to 70.12% for their opponents, a differential of 0.29%. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 73.19% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.81%. However, this isn’t normal homefield advantage as Matt Ryan is 31-20 ATS at home in his career dating back to 2008. I’m taking the Falcons, but I’m not confident at all.
Atlanta Falcons 24 Cleveland Browns 20
Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3
Confidence: None
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St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4)
I’m completely split on this. On one hand, the Rams could easily be overconfident and off of a fluky win over the Broncos last week. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns (1), as the Rams were overly reliant on a +2 turnover margin. The Broncos moved the chains at a 68.75% rate, as opposed to 60.71% for the Rams. Road underdogs of 3 or more are 21-35 ATS since 1989 off of a win as 7+ point home underdogs. Teams can be not just overconfident, but also overvalued off of what’s usually a fluky victory.
I think the Rams are definitely overvalued here. They still only rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.76% rate, as opposed to 74.43% for their opponents, a differential of -4.67%. Meanwhile, the Chargers rank 16th, moving the chains at a 73.74% rate, as opposed to 73.10% for their opponents, a differential of 0.63%. That suggests this line should be much more than 5. It should at least be where it was last week, when the early line was 7, if not higher. I love fading big line movements because they’re often unwarranted and I think it is unwarranted here too.
On the other hand, the Chargers are in a terrible spot. While the Rams only have to play the Raiders next week, the Chargers have to go across the country and play the Ravens in Baltimore. Non-divisional home favorites are as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008, while teams conversely are 76-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m still taking the Chargers, but I’m not confident at all.
San Diego Chargers 30 St. Louis Rams 24
Pick against the spread: San Diego -5
Confidence: None
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6)
The Bears have a much tougher game next week against the Lions in Detroit in just 4 days on Thanksgiving after this game against the Buccaneers. Favorites of 6 or more (which the Bears are here) are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more (the early line is 7) since 2002, while favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Buccaneers, as bad as their record looks, have had a bunch of close games this season, especially on the road where they’ve had win in Pittsburgh and Washington and close losses in Cleveland and New Orleans. They can keep this one close too against a likely distracted Chicago team.
Speaking of the Bears being 6 point favorites, they are 4-6 and teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. However, the Bears do just need to go 3-3 over their final 6 games and they’re favored in 3 of those final 6 games, which would put them at 7-9. They’ve also played a bit better than their record, moving the chains at a 76.62% rate, as opposed to 75.59% for their opponents, a differential of 1.03% that ranks 14th in the NFL. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, rank 29th, moving the chains at a 70.21% rate, as opposed to 75.81% for their opponents, a differential of -5.60%. That does suggest that this line at 6 points is more than reasonable, before you take into account the bad situation the Bears are in and how the Buccaneers have played better on the road this season than at home.
The Buccaneers are also in their 2nd straight road game, which tends to be an easier road game as teams get adjusted to the road. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. However, the Bengals are coming off of a big upset win in New Orleans last week as touchdown underdogs and teams are 39-47 ATS since 1989 as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs of 7 or more. They could be overconfident here after that, which would nullify any advantage they get from being in their 2nd straight road game.
However, I still think the Buccaneers can have another solid showing on the road and keeping it close against a distracted Bears team. The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is because the Buccaneers have a fairly tough game next week when they host the Bengals. Teams are 57-87 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more (the early line is Cincinnati -3.5). However, I still think there’s enough to be somewhat confident in the Buccaneers.
Chicago Bears 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +6
Confidence: Medium
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Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
The San Francisco 49ers are 9 point favorites here at home over the Washington Redskins, but I think that line is much too high. For one thing, San Francisco has actually played significantly worse than their record this season, as they rank 19th in rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 72.13% rate, as opposed to 72.35% for their opponents, a differential of -0.22%. Meanwhile, the Redskins have played significantly better than their record this season, moving the chains at a 72.78% rate, as opposed to 72.11% for their opponents, a differential of -0.68% that ranks 15th in the NFL.
I’m not saying that the 49ers are the 19th best team in the NFL or Washington is 15th, or even that Washington is better than San Francisco at all, but the advanced metrics suggest this line is way too high. Despite that, the public is all over San Francisco and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense (and it does here) because the odds makers always make money in the long run. This line is way too high normally, but the 49ers have a very important game with the Seahawks in 4 days after this season, which could easily provide a significant distraction for them. Since 2008, favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football. This game will be a lot closer than 9.
San Francisco 49ers 24 Washington Redskins 20
Pick against the spread: Washington +9
Confidence: Medium
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Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
The Packers have scored 108 points over the past two weeks, outscoring Chicago and Philadelphia by a combined total of 108-34 in back-to-back home games. However, now they have to go on the road, which has been a much bigger challenge for them. This season, they are 5-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road with double digit losses in Seattle, Detroit, and New Orleans. Their relative road struggles are nothing new. Since 2009, the Packers are 39-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.24 points per game. On the other hand, they are 28-22 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.46 points per game, a difference of about 9 points per game.
The Packers have no business being double digit road favorites here, as well as they’ve played in the last two weeks. They only rank 7th in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 79.74% rate, as opposed to 75.89% for their opponents, a differential of 3.85%. As good as they’ve looked, they’ve been overly reliant on a +14 turnover margin, which is hard to rely on week-to-week. It might seem weird that they’d be just 7th, even with the turnover margin thing taken into account, considering how dominant they were over the past two weeks, but you have to remember that they had some struggles to start the season, especially on the road.
On the road, they move the chains at a 79.05% rate, as opposed to 82.94% for their opponents, a differential of -3.89% that’s nowhere near as good as they’ve been at home. They could easily struggle this week, away from Lambeau. The Vikings, meanwhile, move the chains at a 67.93% rate on the season, as opposed to 72.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.77% that ranks 28th in the league. This line is way too high at 10. There was a significant line movement from 7 to 10 from last week to this week because of how dominant Green Bay was last week and I love fading significant line movements because they’re often unwarranted. The Packers still haven’t proven anything on the public, but the odds makers know they can jack up the line because it’s Green Bay and the public will still be all over it, which they are. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it definitely does this week.
Green Bay Packers 30 Minnesota Vikings 24
Pick against the spread: Minnesota +10
Confidence: Low
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Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
Both of these teams will be divisional road underdogs next week, Philadelphia in Dallas and Tennessee in Houston, so both of them are in bad spots. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 51-80 ATS before being divisional road underdogs over that same time period. However, I’m taking the Titans here because I think the Eagles are in an even worse spot because their game with the Cowboys is in 4 days. Favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. I’m not confident at all though.
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Tennessee Titans 17
Pick against the spread: Tennessee +11
Confidence: None
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New York Jets (2-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-5) in Detroit
In case you haven’t heard, this game is getting moved from Buffalo to Detroit as a result of the massive snowstorm that hit Buffalo this weekend. This line moved from 4.5 to 3 as a result, but I don’t think that’s nearly a big enough line movement. The typical line movement for homefield advantage is 3 and I think this is much more of a neutral site game than that line movement suggests. On top of that, the Bills are at a tremendous disadvantage because they’ve been unable to practice all week. There’s no way they’ll be able to be as focused as the Jets, who got a normal week of practice in this week and didn’t have to deal with a ton of snow effecting their day-to-day lives.
Some might think that because the Bills won by 20 earlier this game in New York against the Jets that the Bills should still be able to win easily here, but that game was very fluky. Easily the biggest reason for the loss was the Jets -6 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of -4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. Even crazier, teams with a turnover margin of -6 or more have an average turnover margin of +0.3 the following week. The Jets actually won the chain game, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, as opposed to 65.38% for the Bills. The Bills were way too reliant on turnovers, which they won’t be able to rely on this week.
The Jets have played better over the past 2 weeks since that game, as a result of the switch from Geno Smith to Michael Vick at quarterback. Vick isn’t great, but he’s an upgrade on the horrific Geno Smith. The Jets are actually better on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.10% rate, as opposed to 72.79% for their opponents, a differential of -3.69% that ranks 24th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, move the chains at a 64.71% rate, as opposed to 69.04% for their opponents, a differential of -4.33% that ranks 26th in the NFL. I’m not that confident in the Jets and I don’t want to put any money on this game given all the externalities effecting it that are so hard to quantify, but I feel like you have to take the points here.
New York Jets 13 Buffalo Bills 12 Upset Pick +125
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3
Confidence: Low
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Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
It takes a lot for me to go against Seattle at home, given how consistently good they’ve been there in recent years. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 45-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 43-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by XX points per game. This is opposed to a 24-42 record away from home (28-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by XX points per game. This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 21-2 straight up and 16-7 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.39 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 7.09 points per game. Russell Wilson has also been very good off a loss, going 7-4 ATS since his rookie year in 2012, including 4-1 ATS at home.
However, I’m going against the Seahawks here at home for some very good reasons. For one, I think the Seahawks’ home dominance has been priced into this line, to an extent. Obviously their home dominance is no longer a secret, especially since they won the Super Bowl, so betting them at home isn’t as good of a deal as it used to be. This season, since their Super Bowl run, they are just 3-2 ATS at home and there’s been some pretty steep lines along the way, 7.5 point favorites for Green Bay, 8.5 point favorites for Dallas, 5 point favorites for Denver. This has the looks of another one of those types of lines.
Either that are Arizona is just undervalued by the odds makers. I’ve been calling them overrated for a while and I still don’t think they’re as good as their record, but they had a very impressive performance last week against a solid Detroit team, moving the chains at an 80.00% rate, as opposed to 52.38% for the Lions. That pushed them to 9th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential (including 3rd in the NFC behind only Green Bay and New Orleans), as they move the chains at a 73.18% rate, as opposed to 69.44% for their opponents, a differential of 3.74%. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 11th moving the chains at a 76.53% rate, as opposed to 73.22% for their opponents, a differential of 3.31%. This line is too high.
Arizona is very well coached on both sides of the ball and as much as the Palmer loss does hurt their offense, their defense has been helped by the healthy returns of Tyrann Mathieu and Calais Campbell. They rank 3rd in opponents rate of moving the chains differential and they’re coming off their most dominant performance of the year. Whether it’s Seattle’s homefield advantage being priced into the line or Arizona being undervalued, the Seahawks aren’t an auto-bet here at home as 7 point favorites.
With that in mind, the Cardinals are in a much better spot this week and are absolutely the right side here. While the Cardinals have a relatively meaningless game against the Falcons up next, the Seahawks have a trip to San Francisco on deck in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Divisional home favorites are 19-52 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002 and favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football. On the other side, teams are 45-31 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road favorites.
Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. Even crazier, teams are 36-13 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs, including 7-2 ATS since 1989 as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road favorites when their opponents will next be divisional road underdogs. I hate going against Seattle at home and I hate going with a public underdog, but there’s just too much stuff in Arizona’s favor that can’t be ignored. They should be the right side.
Seattle Seahawks 16 Arizona Cardinals 13
Pick against spread: Arizona +7
Confidence: Low
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Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7)
One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites of 3 or more are incredibly dominant off of a bye, going 40-12 ATS since 2002, including 21-4 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense. The Cowboys are a significantly better team than the Giants and should be very well prepared for this game with 2 weeks off and take care of business. On the season, they move the chains at a 76.01% rate, as opposed to 72.54% for their opponents, a differential of 3.48% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 22nd, moving the chains at a 71.87% rate, as opposed to 74.45% for their opponents, a differential of -2.59%.
The Giants also don’t have quite the same homefield advantage as most teams do, at least they haven’t in recent history. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 50-39 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.71 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average. At home, the NFC East is 72-81 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.96 points per game and going 57-93 ATS. On the road, they are 73-77, getting outscored by an average of 2.37 points per game and going 79-69 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 31-22 ATS over that time period. The Cowboys are already a perfect 4-0 on the road this season and looking to push it to 5-0 this week.
There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Dallas. One, Dallas has to play Philadelphia in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. Two, on the other hand, the Giants have an easy game in Jacksonville where they are currently projected to be 3.5 point favorites. Teams are 85-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and home underdogs are 68-42 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. They don’t have the same upcoming distraction that the Cowboys have. However, I still like Dallas as big road favorites off of a bye in a place that hasn’t had a ton of homefield advantage recently.
Dallas Cowboys 34 New York Giants 24
Pick against the spread: Dallas -3.5
Confidence: Medium
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