Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, Falcons, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

Two spots the Falcons have always done well in since 2008, the first year of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, have been off of a loss and at home. Matt Ryan is 30-19 ATS at home in his career and 23-11 ATS off of a loss. The Falcons didn’t show well off of a loss last week in New York against the Giants, but they were on the road. The Falcons haven’t won outside since 2012. Now at home in their dome, they could have an easier time. They are 15-7 ATS at home off a loss since 2008 as long as Matt Ryan is under center.

Despite all that, I’m taking the Bears here because they have even more powerful situational trends on their side. The Bears are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 105-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 89-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 174-180 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.12 points per game, as opposed to 244-355 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.36 points per game.

The Bears are also in a much better spot with a much easier game on deck. While the Bears host the Dolphins next, the Falcons have to go to Baltimore. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 106-72 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 93-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. The Falcons’ defense and offensive line are a mess so as good as their passing game is and as good as they are at home and off a loss, I like the Bears to come in and potentially pull the upset. I’m taking them and the field goal.

Chicago Bears 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

The Seahawks are basically an auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 43-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.73 points per game. This is opposed to a 23-40 record away from home (28-34-1 ATS) and getting outscored by 3.90 points per game on the road.

This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 19-1 straight up and 15-5 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.55 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 8.72 points per game at home. The normal 3 points for homefield advantage doesn’t apply for them and they should get something like 6 points for homefield advantage, at least. The odds makers have been clearly boosting the spread for their homefield advantage recently, but they’ve still covered 6 of their last 10 home games. The odds makers clearly boosted the spread for the Seahawks’ special homefield advantage when the Seahawks played Green Bay and Denver, against whom they were 7.5 point and 5 point favorites respectively. They still covered both spreads.

Given that, it seems a little ridiculous that they are only 8 point favorites here for the Cowboys. The Cowboys have exceeded expectations this season, but they’re not as good as their record. They’ve had close calls with Houston and St. Louis and haven’t really beaten anyone who is having much success this season. The Seahawks in Seattle will be a different story. If the Broncos couldn’t cover the spread in Seattle and the Packers got blown out in Seattle, the Cowboys should lose this one by double digits.

The Seahawks are also in a good spot with just a road game against the Rams on deck. Teams are 54-28 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. On top of that, teams are 75-49 ATS since 2002 before being 3+ road favorites. The Cowboys are technically in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 120-88 ATS in since 2002, but their game against the Giants next week is much more important to them than the Seahawks’ game against the Rams so the Seahawks are in the better spot. I’m going to take them in that better spot in a location where they almost always cover. The Seahawks are also my survivor pick.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Dallas Cowboys 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle -8

Confidence: High

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2)

The Texans lost a hard fought battle with the Cowboys last week in Dallas, losing by a field goal in overtime. Now they have to turn around and play another game after 3 days rest. That will really hurt them here. Teams generally struggle as home underdogs off an overtime loss as road underdogs, going 13-20 ATS in that dynamic since 1989. However, teams especially struggle on Thursday night off an overtime game, going 3-18 ATS in that situation since 1989. There aren’t enough data points to combine those two trends, but you can imagine they don’t add well together. This is a rough spot for the Texans.

We’re also getting line value with the Colts because the public hasn’t really caught on to the fact that they’re one of the elite teams in the NFL. They’re moving the chains at a 78.95% rate, as opposed to 70.32% for their opponents. Andrew Luck has broken out as the type of top level quarterback the Colts envisioned him being when they drafted him #1 overall in 2012. He’s completing 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.49 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, leading their dynamic offense. Only giving a field goal here with them, with the Texans in the situation they’re in, is a great deal.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)

The Eagles are 4-1, but they are a fraudulent 4-1. Of their 4 wins, 3 of them have come by 6 or less and 2 of them have come by 3 or less. The other one was a home game against the Jaguars. They also have 6 return touchdowns, as opposed to just 11 offensive touchdowns. If you take those return touchdowns out of the equation, they would have a -18 point differential, which would be 5th worst in the NFC. They rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains differential at -3.29%. They are moving the chains at just a 69.94% rate, as opposed to 73.22% for their opponents.

The biggest problem with their offense is that they are averaging 3.79 yards per carry on the ground, including just 2.90 yards per carry from LeSean McCoy. The issue is the offensive line as both Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce, Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked guard and center respectively in 2013, are out for an extended period of time. Those are arguably the two best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL. Also, Nick Foles’ mechanics and accuracy have been a best, as the 2nd year starter has regressed and ranked as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked quarterback out of 35 eligible. Neither of those two problems is going to correct itself any time soon.

The Giants, meanwhile, are a much better team. They rank 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.70% rate, as opposed to a 72.67% rate for their opponents, a differential of 4.04%. Even though Philadelphia has the better record and they are less than field goal favorites here at home (2.5), we’re still getting significant line value with the Giants. That line also isn’t taking into account that the Giants very dangerous on the road. Since the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning in 2004, they are 55-34 ATS on the road, including 36-21 ATS as road underdogs, and 16-7 ATS as divisional road underdogs.

The Eagles are also in a bad spot. Home favorites of 6 or more cover the spread at a very high rate going into the bye (about 75%), but it’s the exact opposite for home favorites of all other amounts as home favorites of 1-5.5 are 34-59 ATS since 2002 going into a bye. They’re also 27-43 ATS at home since 2006, including 8-18 ATS in divisional games at home. I love the Giants to pull the upset and they are my Pick of the Week as 2.5 point underdogs.

New York Giants 27 Philadelphia Eagles 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 6

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 137 16 8 15 10 1 0 81.82%
2 IND 133 17 10 17 9 4 0 78.95%
3 DAL 119 14 11 16 10 0 0 78.24%
4 CHI 115 13 7 18 10 2 0 77.58%
5 CLE 92 11 8 19 1 2 0 77.44%
6 KC 106 14 7 20 6 2 0 77.42%
7 DEN 87 14 6 20 4 0 0 77.10%
8 GB 94 16 6 19 4 2 2 76.92%
9 BAL 114 12 13 15 6 4 0 76.83%
10 NYG 119 16 7 21 10 3 0 76.70%
11 SEA 85 13 7 18 3 1 1 76.56%
12 ATL 116 17 7 21 11 2 0 76.44%
13 SD 102 14 11 23 2 1 0 75.82%
14 PIT 112 10 11 22 6 0 0 75.78%
15 SF 100 10 13 17 5 1 0 75.34%
16 STL 90 8 8 14 9 2 0 74.81%
17 WAS 110 14 6 24 9 3 0 74.70%
18 CAR 101 10 10 25 6 0 0 73.03%
19 TB 86 11 5 20 11 1 1 71.85%
20 CIN 79 10 13 16 4 2 0 71.77%
21 MIA 90 9 9 16 8 6 0 71.74%
22 ARZ 76 7 11 20 3 0 0 70.94%
23 NE 100 10 13 24 5 4 0 70.51%
24 TEN 97 10 8 25 7 3 2 70.39%
25 DET 92 10 12 22 8 1 0 70.34%
26 MIN 94 9 12 23 7 2 0 70.07%
27 PHI 103 11 11 24 12 2 0 69.94%
28 HOU 90 9 10 25 8 1 0 69.23%
29 NYJ 88 8 8 27 10 3 0 66.67%
30 OAK 64 6 3 23 9 1 0 66.04%
31 JAX 77 7 8 28 10 4 0 62.69%
32 BUF 82 7 15 31 4 2 1 62.68%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 DET 86 8 8 30 6 2 1 66.67%
2 MIA 73 10 8 20 8 3 0 68.03%
3 BUF 104 7 11 28 10 3 0 68.10%
4 SD 86 8 3 23 8 6 1 69.63%
5 IND 97 12 9 25 10 2 0 70.32%
6 NE 99 10 12 20 11 2 0 70.78%
7 KC 96 9 13 24 3 2 0 71.43%
8 DEN 87 10 8 23 3 3 1 71.85%
9 BAL 98 7 13 19 8 1 0 71.92%
10 HOU 109 10 7 25 12 2 0 72.12%
11 SEA 79 9 6 23 3 1 1 72.13%
12 NYJ 91 14 8 29 3 0 0 72.41%
13 WAS 97 14 8 29 4 1 0 72.55%
14 NYG 98 11 10 19 10 2 0 72.67%
15 PHI 119 15 12 26 8 3 0 73.22%
16 CIN 97 7 10 17 7 3 1 73.24%
17 PIT 101 10 13 21 5 1 0 73.51%
18 DAL 93 11 6 19 9 3 0 73.76%
19 CHI 98 13 12 14 11 2 0 74.00%
20 MIN 96 14 6 26 5 1 0 74.32%
21 ARZ 84 11 5 18 7 2 0 74.80%
22 SF 94 10 5 18 10 2 0 74.82%
23 ATL 109 15 14 18 9 0 0 75.15%
24 CAR 104 14 9 18 10 2 0 75.16%
25 OAK 85 10 10 14 5 2 0 75.40%
26 TEN 124 15 11 20 7 4 0 76.80%
27 CLE 95 12 7 18 4 2 1 76.98%
28 STL 77 10 8 12 6 0 0 76.99%
29 GB 118 11 7 16 10 3 0 78.18%
30 JAX 122 16 12 20 4 2 0 78.41%
31 NO 108 14 10 20 2 0 1 78.71%
32 TB 126 16 13 16 9 0 0 78.89%

 

Overall

1 IND 8.62%
2 SD 6.19%
3 KC 5.99%
4 DEN 5.25%
5 BAL 4.91%
6 DAL 4.48%
7 SEA 4.43%
8 NYG 4.04%
9 MIA 3.71%
10 DET 3.68%
11 CHI 3.58%
12 NO 3.11%
13 PIT 2.27%
14 WAS 2.15%
15 ATL 1.29%
16 SF 0.52%
17 CLE 0.47%
18 NE -0.27%
19 GB -1.26%
20 CIN -1.47%
21 CAR -2.13%
22 STL -2.18%
23 HOU -2.89%
24 PHI -3.29%
25 ARZ -3.86%
26 MIN -4.26%
27 BUF -5.42%
28 NYJ -5.75%
29 TEN -6.40%
30 TB -7.04%
31 OAK -9.36%
32 JAX -15.72%

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2014 Week 5 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Against the Spread: 9-6

Straight Up: 12-3

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-1

Medium Confidence: 5-1

Low Confidence: 1-2

No Confidence: 2-1

Upset Picks: 1-1

Against the Spread: 48-27-1

Straight Up: 48-28

Pick of the Week: 3-2

High Confidence: 2-4

Medium Confidence: 19-5

Low Confidence: 12-8-1

No Confidence: 12-8

Upset Picks: 6-5

Survivor Picks: 4-1 (PHI, GB, NO, SD, DET)

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St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Eagles, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)

This is one of two games this week that I have no idea on. Unlike San Francisco/Kansas City, where I have strong arguments for each side, I don’t have a strong argument for either side here. There are no situational trends in play here. I don’t think we’re getting significant line value with either side. I’m going to take the Rams here just because I think the Eagles are overrated. Their offensive line has been a mess this season, without Jason Kelce and Evan Mathis, leading to LeSean McCoy averaging 2.74 yards per carry.

The Eagles are moving the chains at a mere 69.23% rate, as opposed to 71.63% for their opponents, a differential of -2.40%, 22nd in the NFL. The Rams aren’t good either, ranking 27th in the NFL at -5.72%. They move the chains at a 73.03%, as opposed to 78.75% for their opponents, through 3 games. However, I’m taking them on principle because I believe the Eagles are overrated. I’m also fading the public by doing that.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Panthers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2)

The Panthers have lost their last two games by scores of 37-19 and 38-10, a combined margin of 46 points. As a result, the public seems very turned off of them, as they are heavily backing the underdog. However, I like the Panthers for three reasons. One, I like to fade publicly backed underdogs on principle. If the Bears are really better than the Panthers like the public thinks, why do the odds makers (who always come out on top) have them as 2.5 point underdogs? Whenever the public thinks an upset will be pulled, it usually doesn’t happen.

Two, the Panthers are actually in a good spot after back-to-back blowouts. Teams are 48-27 ATS off of two losses by a combined 45 or more points since 2008.  It may seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Panthers should be all three this week. Three, these two teams are at the very least even, so, as long as I’m laying less than a field goal with the Panthers at home, they’re the side I’m going with here. I’m not that confident though.

Carolina Panthers 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Colts, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

I think the Ravens are an underrated team. They are 3-1 and they’ve moved the chains at a higher rate than their opponent in all 4 games they’ve played. Even in their home loss to undefeated Cincinnati, they moved the chains at a 75.68% rate, as opposed to 62.69% for the Bengals. They currently lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 9.59%. They move the chains at an 80.88% rate, as opposed to 71.30% for their opponents. I’m kind of concerned that they’ve lost both Dennis Pitta and Eugene Monroe for extended periods of time, but they didn’t seem to miss them much in last week’s home win over the Panthers, a 38-10 victory.

The Colts are actually 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at an 80.26% rate, as opposed to 73.23% for their opponents (a differential of 7.03%). However, most of that is because they destroyed the Jaguars and Titans over the past two weeks. Against the Jaguars, they moved the chains at an 83.78% rate, as opposed to 68.97% for their opponents. Against the Titans, they moved the chains at an 83.72% rate, as opposed to 64.29% for their opponents. They’ve had more trouble with tougher opponents though. I think the Ravens are the better team here.

The reason I’m not that confident in the Ravens is because they aren’t the same team on the road. Since the start of the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco in 2008, they are 43-10 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.30 points per game, as opposed to 31-29 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.98 points per game. However, given that we’re getting more than a field goal with the better team, the Ravens should be the right side. Also helpful for the Ravens, the Colts have a Thursday Night game against the Texans up next. Favorites are 31-55 ATS before a Thursday Night game since 2008.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Broncos, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)

The Cardinals have been anointed one of the top few teams in the NFL as a result of their 3-0 start. That’s very short-sighted. There always one team that start 3-0 or better and goes on to miss the playoffs. The Dolphins started 3-0 last year. The Cardinals started 4-0 in 2012. The Bills started 3-0 in 2011, etc. On top of that, about 2/3rds of the league has a 3+ game winning streak at some point in a 16 game season. It’s just much more noticeable at the start of the season. But everyone is overreacting to 18.75% of an NFL season.

The argument is that the Cardinals also played well last season, finishing 10-6, the only team to win double digit games and miss the playoffs, but considering they’ve lost Carson Palmer, Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington, Karlos Dansby, John Abraham, and essentially lost Tyrann Mathieu (20 snaps thus far this season as he comes off a torn ACL), it’s hard to lump in last season and this season together. Bruce Arians is doing a hell of a coaching job, but this team doesn’t have the talent to maintain this level of play. Pro Football Focus has them rated 23rd in team grade offensively and 22nd in team grade defensively. I think that’s telling.

Given that, I’m going to fade the Cardinals this week. This line is pretty big at 7.5 so we’re not getting a ton of line value with the Broncos, but they should still be the right side. I’m not super confident, but the fact that Peyton Manning is 12-5 ATS as a regular season home favorite in their career with the Broncos (since 2012) and the fact that Peyton Manning is 11-5 ATS off of a regular season bye in his career help support my case and solidify my choice.

Denver Broncos 24 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Denver -7.5

Confidence: Low

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