New York Jets at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-1)

The Chargers are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Raiders in Oakland next week, the Jets have to deal with the Broncos at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008, while non-divisional road underdogs are 90-118 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-37 ATS since 2010 before being 3+ point road favorites, while teams are 28-69 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point home underdogs. Teams are also 57-87 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites.

I also feel like we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Chargers. This line is 6.5 and the Chargers are definitely more than 3.5 points better than the Jets, especially with no distractions on the horizon and the Jets going into arguably their toughest game of the season. Also hurting the Jets, Eric Decker might not play in this one and he’s easily their best wide receiver. The Chargers should be the right side here.

San Diego Chargers 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: San Diego -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Browns, Titans, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)

Tennessee has been demolished in back to back weeks, losing by final scores of 33-7 and 41-17, but I have reason to think that this week will be different. For one, Jake Locker is coming back from injury. Locker isn’t great or anything, but he’s definitely better than Charlie Whitehurst who started last week and is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Whitehurst started last week. Two, the Titans will be using Bishop Sankey more this week. Sankey is averaging 5.13 yards per carry this season and could get a season high in touches after he combined for 19 touches in week 3 and week 4 after combining for 8 touches in week 1 and week 2.

Three, the Titans are actually in a good spot coming off of those blowout losses, as teams are 40-22 ATS since 2002 coming off of back to back losses of 21+ or more. It may seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Titans should be all three this week. These two teams are roughly comparable so this line should be closer to 3. The Browns also won’t be completely focused for this one with the Steelers on deck, while the Titans have their easiest game of the season on deck with the Jaguars coming to town next week. I like the Titans to bounce back and win this game.

Tennessee Titans 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -1

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Commanders, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

One of the most powerful trends says that big road favorites dominate off a bye. Road favorites of 3 or more are 39-12 ATS off a bye since 2002, which is an incredibly high rate. The Seahawks should be completely focused here as 7.5 point favorites and be able to blow out an incredibly inferior opponent even on the road. The Seahawks are also at an advantage because this game will be at night and West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams at night, no matter where the game is played, covering at about a 67% rate. The Redskins could be getting tired towards the end of this game, while the Seahawks will be alert the whole time.

In spite of both of those things, this isn’t a bigger play for the Seahawks because the Redskins are in one good spot. They were demolished on Thursday Night Football last week. It might seem counter-intuitive, but that makes it more likely they’ll cover this week as this line could be a little inflated. This line was at 6 points a week ago, which is where I wish it still was, but now it’s 7.5, moving from the key number of 6 and crossing over another key number of 7. Underdogs are 24-13 ATS off of a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more. Not only did we get that line movement, but the Redskins have had 10 days to hear about how bad they are, which is extra motivation. I like the Seahawks still, but it’s only a medium confidence play.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bills, Lions, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1)

The Lions are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Vikings in Minnesota next week, the Bills have to deal with the Patriots at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008, while non-divisional road underdogs are 56-81 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 71-47 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, while teams are 47-75 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs.

I think we’re also getting line value here as the league still hasn’t caught on to the fact that the Lions are one of the league’s elite teams. The Lions are 5th in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.43%. That’s consistent with how they played last season (regardless of their record), as they finished 6th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.42%. Meanwhile, the Bills rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -7.50%.

There is one reason that this isn’t a bigger play. The Bills are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-46 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 173-179 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 242-349 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.22 points per game. The Lions should still be the right side.

Detroit Lions 27 Buffalo Bills 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)

I’m completely torn on this one as there’s good reasons to take each side. On one hand, the 49ers usually cover as favorites of 3 or more as they’ve always beaten up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 24-14 ATS in that situation since Harbaugh took over in 2011. However, I’m not sure the Chiefs are a bad team at all, while the 49ers haven’t looked right this season because of all the players they are missing to injuries and suspension. We might be getting a significant amount of line value with the Chiefs as 6 point underdogs.

The Chiefs looked fantastic last week in a 41-14 home win over the New England Patriots. They could easily carry that momentum into this week considering how well teams do off of blowout wins on Monday Night Football. Teams are 32-14 ATS since 2002 off of a 21+ point win on Monday Night Football. I’m taking the 49ers out of principle because the Chiefs are a publicly backed underdog, but I’m not confident at all.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco -6

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)

Jacksonville was in a perfect spot to finally cover the spread last week. They were 13.5 point underdogs, so they had a lot of room to play with, as a result of the fact that they lost by 21+ points in two straight weeks. Teams are 40-22 ATS since 2002 after back-to-back losses of 21 or more, as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation. And they still didn’t cover the spread, losing 33-14. They have covered just 6 of their last 21 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 21 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits. They should get blown out again here as 7 point home underdogs against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -7

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

The Cowboys have greatly exceeded my expectations. By far the biggest surprise has been the play of their defense. They haven’t been good or anything, but considering the complete lack of talent they came into the season with, a lot of credit needs to be given to new defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli for turning this into an at least serviceable unit that allows the offense to do their thing. Rolando McClain has been the biggest surprise as the embattled former 1st round pick seems to have put his career back on the right track and is playing the best football of his career, but players like Sterling Moore and Tyrone Crawford have also exceeded expectations and free agent pickup Henry Melton has been key. I don’t expect the Cowboys to be as good as they’ve looked through 4 games all season, but they’re going to contend for a playoff spot.

However, they’re in a terrible spot here as they have a huge game in Seattle on deck. Teams are 70-99 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. Going off of that, teams are 54-88 ATS as favorites before being underdogs of a touchdown or more, which the Cowboys could easily be considering Green Bay and Denver were 7.5 and 5 point underdogs in Seattle this season. Dallas also tends to fall flat as big home favorites. This is the first time they’ve been in this situation this season and they might be playing with less of a chip on their shoulder as a result. They are 12-20 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more since 2009. Finally, I think we’re getting significant line value with the Texans. This line should be 4 or 4.5 at most. The Cowboys aren’t 3 points better than a decent Texans team. This line was 3 a week ago. I’m going to fade the overreaction and the line movement and take the points here.

Dallas Cowboys 17 Houston Texans 16

Pick against spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)

I thought about waiting until we found out Teddy Bridgewater’s status for this one and who the starting quarterback would be for the Vikings, but I have a feeling this line is going to increase closer to game time so I want to lock it in right now at Green Bay -9. If I had to guess, Bridgewater will not play in this one, nursing a sore ankle on a short week, leaving Christian Ponder to be the starter. Once that’s announced, this line could be closer to 10.5-12. Even if Bridgewater plays, it’ll be at less than 100% on a short week after missing valuable practice time going into his 2nd NFL career start on the road. He’s clearly their most talented quarterback, but that might be too much for him right now.

I like the Packers in this one regardless as they’ve been very dominant at home recently. Aaron Rodgers is 21-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 27-4 straight up, with an absurd +416 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.42 points per game. They also have no distractions on the horizon with a random non-conference game against the Dolphins in Miami up next, while the Vikings will have to deal with the division leading Lions next week in Minnesota. Teams are 47-75 ATS before being 3+ home favorites since 2012 and teams are 57-87 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites. The Packers should be the right side and I’m not waiting around for this line to go up to 10 or higher.

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -9

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, Patriots, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-2)

The Patriots are in three spots this week that have easily been auto-bets for them in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. They are 1.5 point underdogs here at home. They are coming off of a loss. And they are facing an opponent with a better record than them. Tom Brady is 31-15 ATS off of a loss in his career. Brady is also 42-18 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in his career. This is just the 6th time the Patriots have been home underdogs since 2002. So far, they are 3-1 ATS and 3-1 straight up. Finally, he’s 30-10-1 ATS in his career against teams that have better records than his, including 18-6 ATS as an underdog. Possibly even crazier, he’s 29-12 straight up in that situation, a winning percentage of 70.7%. The rest of the league wins at a 38.6% rate.

The Patriots haven’t looked good at all this season. They rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.96% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents. That rate of moving the chains is 29th in the NFL, meaning only 3 teams are moving the chains at a worse rate than the New England Patriots. Those three teams include two that have benched their starting quarterback (Buffalo and Jacksonville) and one that has fired their head coach (Oakland). Not exactly good company. However, I don’t think they’re nearly as bad as they’ve looked. They still have a ton of talent on paper. They won’t be nearly this bad all season.

It helps them that they return home here. They’ve played just 1 home game out of 4 so far and that was week 3 after starting the season with two road games. They didn’t cover as 14 point favorites against the Raiders that week, but teams that start with two straight road games more often than not don’t cover week 3 at home. The Patriots have still won 10 straight home games and 12 of their last 13, going 9-4 ATS over that time period. Unlike the last time they are at home, they’re in a very good spot this week, and I’m not just referring to the trends I mentioned earlier. They have no distractions on the horizon with a trip to Buffalo on deck. They should be at least 3 point road favorites in that game and teams are 71-47 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 66-42 ATS as home underdogs before being road favorites since 2002.

While the Patriots have been having recent success at home, the Bengals have had issues on the road over the past couple of seasons. While they have covered in all 10 home games over the past two seasons, they are 3-5-1 ATS and 4-5 straight up on the road. That included losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. They won in Baltimore week 1, but they only moved the chains at a 62.96% rate, as opposed to 75.68% for the Ravens. Ordinarily, I’d be more confident in the Patriots in this spot, but, again, they’ve really struggled this season. That being said, I think this line has moved far enough that we’re actually getting some value with the Patriots right now, so I think they should be the right side.

New England Patriots 23 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: New England +1.5

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

The Saints are 1-3, which has caused some people to hit the panic button for them, much like they did for the Packers last week (how did that work out?). The Saints did not look good in Dallas last week, but you have to look at more than their record. Three of their first four games have been on the road and they came very close to winning two of them. They are a few plays away from being 3-1 with a couple of decent road wins. If the Saints were 3-0 going into Dallas last week, would as big of a deal be made about their loss? I don’t think so. The Saints are still moving the chains at an 81.56% rate and while their defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79.20% rate, I expect what was a solid defense last season to bounce back and they’re still positive in rate of moving the chains differential, coming in at 15th.

I like the Saints’ chances to bounce back this week. Not only is Drew Brees 19-5 ATS off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline (including 14-2 ATS at home), the Saints are a much better team at home than they are on the road. The Saints are 32-10 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 17-0-1 ATS at home over their last 18 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 18 of those games by an average of about 20.3 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points.

They should be able to win by double digits here against a mediocre Buccaneers team that has to be exhausted in their 3rd straight road game. Underdogs are 50-65 ATS in their 3rd or more straight road game since 1989 and it makes sense. Meanwhile, the Saints are going into their bye so they’ll be completely focused here at home for a depleted, mediocre football team. Big home favorites almost always dominate going into the bye, to the tune of 53-17 ATS since 2002 (as home favorites of 6 or more).

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans -10

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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