Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Falcons, Giants, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2)

The Falcons’ road woes are well documented and they reared their head again last week as the Falcons lost to the Vikings and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, a week after blowing out the Buccaneers 56-14 on Thursday Night Football. Now they are once again on the road in New York to play the Giants, but I expect a different result. Instead of being in their first road game, they are in their 2nd of two road games, which makes a huge difference.

Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-46 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 173-179 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 242-349 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.22 points per game. As much as the Falcons have had road issues in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, they’ve done well in their 2nd of two road games, going 10-4 in their second straight road game, including 6-2 ATS off of a road loss. Going off of that, Matt Ryan is 23-10 ATS off of a loss in his career. This line is a huge overreaction to things that happened last week as it was a pick ’em a week ago. We’re getting a lot of value with the Falcons as this line should be 3 points at maximum. The Falcons aren’t worse than the Giants.

As much as the Falcons have issues on the road, the Giants actually have issues at home. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-38 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.12 points per game, as opposed to 49-37 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home. Going off of that, they are 6-15 ATS since 2004 as home favorites of 3.5 or more after winning on the road.

The Giants are also in a bad spot because they have to go to Philadelphia next week, while the Falcons head home and take on the Bears, a much easier and less meaningful game for them. They’re significantly less likely to be distracted for that reason. Since 2008, non-divisional road underdogs are 106-70 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites, while teams are 84-103 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 93-55 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-56 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. This is a trap spot for the Giants and I like the underdog a good amount as long as this line is past the magic number of 4.

Atlanta Falcons 24 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Atlanta +4.5

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 5

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 NO 103 12 5 13 7 1 0 81.56%
2 BAL 99 11 11 10 3 2 0 80.88%
3 CHI 98 10 5 14 6 1 0 80.60%
4 IND 107 15 8 14 5 3 0 80.26%
5 DAL 95 12 8 12 7 0 0 79.85%
6 KC 92 12 6 16 5 2 0 78.20%
7 ATL 96 15 5 16 10 1 0 77.62%
8 GB 79 11 6 13 3 2 2 77.59%
9 ARZ 67 5 9 9 3 0 0 77.42%
10 DEN 63 9 3 16 2 0 0 77.42%
11 SEA 65 10 5 12 3 1 1 77.32%
12 NYG 97 13 4 18 8 3 0 76.92%
13 CLE 65 8 6 16 0 0 0 76.84%
14 WAS 96 12 5 16 9 3 0 76.60%
15 PIT 92 9 10 17 5 0 0 75.94%
16 SD 81 10 10 18 1 1 0 75.21%
17 SF 78 9 8 15 5 1 0 75.00%
18 DET 79 9 9 15 6 1 0 73.95%
19 CIN 62 8 11 12 1 1 0 73.68%
20 STL 61 4 8 9 6 1 0 73.03%
21 CAR 79 7 9 20 3 0 0 72.88%
22 MIN 74 8 11 16 4 1 0 71.93%
23 MIA 90 9 9 16 8 6 0 71.74%
24 TB 66 8 4 16 10 1 0 70.48%
25 HOU 75 7 9 18 7 1 0 70.09%
26 NYJ 77 8 8 19 8 2 0 69.67%
27 PHI 81 9 9 20 9 2 0 69.23%
28 TEN 75 6 8 21 7 2 1 67.50%
29 NE 70 7 8 21 5 4 0 66.96%
30 OAK 64 6 3 23 9 1 0 66.04%
31 JAX 65 7 5 23 8 4 0 64.29%
32 BUF 63 6 11 23 3 2 1 63.30%

 

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 MIA 73 10 8 20 8 3 0 68.03% 2.36%
2 DET 67 7 4 22 5 2 1 68.52% 9.59%
3 KC 74 8 8 22 3 2 0 70.09% 6.46%
4 CIN 67 4 5 14 7 3 1 70.30% 7.03%
5 NYJ 70 10 7 24 2 0 0 70.80% 4.20%
6 BUF 91 6 8 21 8 3 0 70.80% 8.11%
7 BAL 72 5 11 16 4 0 0 71.30% 2.62%
8 PHI 90 11 12 21 5 2 0 71.63% -4.23%
9 NE 82 8 10 16 8 1 0 72.00% 3.26%
10 HOU 85 8 4 21 9 2 0 72.09% -0.06%
11 WAS 77 11 6 23 4 1 0 72.13% 3.09%
12 NYG 78 9 8 14 9 1 0 73.11% 3.81%
13 IND 82 11 7 20 7 0 0 73.23% 1.14%
14 SD 75 8 3 15 6 5 1 73.45% 4.46%
15 CHI 76 10 11 9 8 2 0 74.14% -0.80%
16 ARZ 60 6 2 14 5 2 0 74.16% 1.76%
17 SEA 65 7 5 15 3 1 1 74.23% -0.21%
18 MIN 81 9 6 20 4 1 0 74.38% 5.43%
19 ATL 87 12 11 15 7 0 0 75.00% 3.39%
20 SF 80 8 4 14 9 2 0 75.21% -5.72%
21 OAK 85 10 10 14 5 2 0 75.40% -4.90%
22 DAL 78 9 5 12 8 3 0 75.65% -2.45%
23 CLE 73 8 7 14 4 1 0 75.70% 3.71%
24 TEN 97 12 9 17 6 2 0 76.22% -7.14%
25 PIT 89 10 10 16 3 1 0 76.74% -2.01%
26 DEN 78 8 6 12 3 3 1 77.48% -1.12%
27 TB 92 12 10 14 6 0 0 77.61% -2.40%
28 CAR 87 11 7 14 6 1 0 77.78% -8.72%
29 STL 55 8 6 8 3 0 0 78.75% -5.04%
30 JAX 102 15 11 15 3 2 0 79.05% -9.36%
31 NO 88 11 9 16 1 0 0 79.20% -14.77%
32 GB 98 10 6 9 7 2 0 81.82% -7.50%

 

Overall

1 BAL 9.59%
2 KC 8.11%
3 IND 7.03%
4 CHI 6.46%
5 DET 5.43%
6 WAS 4.46%
7 DAL 4.20%
8 NYG 3.81%
9 MIA 3.71%
10 CIN 3.39%
11 ARZ 3.26%
12 SEA 3.09%
13 ATL 2.62%
14 NO 2.36%
15 SD 1.76%
16 CLE 1.14%
17 DEN -0.06%
18 SF -0.21%
19 PIT -0.80%
20 NYJ -1.12%
21 HOU -2.01%
22 PHI -2.40%
23 MIN -2.45%
24 GB -4.23%
25 CAR -4.90%
26 NE -5.04%
27 STL -5.72%
28 TB -7.14%
29 BUF -7.50%
30 TEN -8.72%
31 OAK -9.36%
32 JAX -14.77%

2014 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Against the Spread: 8-4-1

Straight Up: 9-4

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 0-0

Medium Confidence: 1-2

Low Confidence: 5-1-1

No Confidence: 1-1

Upset Picks: 2-0

Against the Spread: 39-21-1

Straight Up: 36-25

Pick of the Week: 3-1

High Confidence: 1-3

Medium Confidence: 14-4

Low Confidence: 11-6-1

No Confidence: 10-7

Upset Picks: 5-4

Survivor Picks: 4-0 (PHI, GB, NO, SD)

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

This is another game where there’s been significant line movement as the Patriots were 6.5 point favorites last week in this game and now they’re 3.5 point favorites, after the Patriots barely beat the Raiders in New England and the Chiefs won big time as underdogs in Miami. There are reasonable explanations for both as the Patriots were coming off of two straight road games (a tough spot for a team week 3) and the Chiefs were in their 2nd straight road game (usually a spot where teams cover). Some line movement was warranted, but 3 points seems a little much.

That being said, I’m hesitant to bet on the Patriots as big favorites. Tom Brady has been showing his age much more over the past two seasons than he was pre-2013. Things will get easier for him once Gronk returns to form, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll do so this week. On top of that, Brady’s arm strength seems close to gone and his mechanics have been slower. Declines can get guys fast and, now 37, I’m concerned that’s happening with Brady. Not helping matters is how poorly his offensive line has been playing. It’s why I didn’t take the Patriots as double touchdown favorites last week. I’m taking the Patriots this week, banking on their defense allowing them to bounce back and not have back-to-back disappointing performances and fading the line movement and the public underdog on principle, but I’m not confident.

New England Patriots 20 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against spread: New England -3.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Detroit Lions at New York Jets: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Jets, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

This line seems too low. On paper, the Lions should be at least field goal favorites here and win by at least a field goal even on the road against the Jets. Even after beating the Packers, I still think the Lions are underrated. The Lions were one of the best teams in the league last season regardless of what their record said, as they finished 6th in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.42% and this season they are once again right around there, ranking 5th at 5.98%. However, despite that, people are still chalking up last week’s win to Green Bay not being as good as we think. The Packers, regardless of how they’ve looked through 3 games this season, have an incredibly talented offense and the Lions held them to 65.22% moving the chains. They should do something similar to a significantly less talented Jets’ offense. Both the Packers and the Lions are underrated and both should win this week on the road.

The key word is should. There are a few reasons why I’m not that confident in the Lions here, even in essentially a pick em game. One, they’ve lost stud middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch for the season with a torn ACL, which I think hurts their chances of finishing 12-4 and in first place in the NFC North, as I predicted at the start of the season. Two, it’s possible they won’t be 100% after such a big win last week and might overlook a non-conference opponent like the Jets, unlike the Packers, who are coming off of a loss and are facing a divisional opponent. Three, I’m somewhat concerned that Calvin Johnson is dealing with an injury. If he’s less than 100%, it could easily have a noticeable effect on this offense. Four, the Lions are heavily bet by the public and this seems too good to be true. This is too much of a square bet for me to feel comfortable. They should be the right side though.

Detroit Lions 20 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -1.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders in London: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Raiders, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-3) in London

The Dolphins should cover this spread fairly easily as mere 3.5 point favorites in a neutral site game against the pathetic Raiders. This line was at 7 last week before the Dolphins got blown out at home by the Chiefs. Obviously the line should have moved a little bit as a result, but the Chiefs were in a good spot as road underdogs after a road loss and the Dolphins’ biggest issue last week was their game plan as they aired it out 43 times to 20 runs, even though they averaged 7.1 yards per carry on the ground and 4.8 yards per attempt in the air. They should commit themselves to the run this week and run all over a hapless Raider team, who they are significantly more than 3.5 points better than.

The key word is should though and I’m not that confident here. I want to fade the massive line movement, but I don’t have a ton of trust in Joe Philbin and the Dolphins in terms of their ability to develop a game plan. I also never know what to do with these stupid London games, as it’s tough to know if both teams will give it 100%. You’d think the Raiders would give less than 100% as a 0-3 team who has to give away a home game for this game, coming off of a close loss to the Patriots in New England, but there are no guarantees.

Miami Dolphins 24 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Falcons, Uncategorized, Vikings

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)

Atlanta dominated last week at home against the Buccaneers, winning 56-14, moving the chains at an 82.05% rate, as opposed to 47.83% for the Buccaneers. However, now they go on the road to Minnesota and they haven’t had nearly as much success on the road in the Matt Ryan era. Since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came in 2008, they are 39-14 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 5.91 points per game, as opposed to 24-27 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game. They were blown out in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago. Minnesota isn’t as good as Cincinnati, but they don’t need to blow them out to cover this spread as 3 point underdogs.

The Falcons also will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-18 ATS after a Thursday Night win of 10 or more since 1989. This line has shifted 4.5 points since last week, from 1.5 points in favor of Minnesota to 3 points in favor of Atlanta. Obviously, some line movement would make sense after that type of blowout win, but this seems excessive. This suggests that the Falcons would be about 9 point favorites in Atlanta, even before you take into account the home and away disparity for the Falcons. Considering the Buccaneers were 6.5 point underdogs in Atlanta last week, that seems excessive. And yet, the public is obviously still all over Atlanta. It’s not a high confidence pick, but I’m going to fade the public and take Teddy Bridgewater in his NFL debut.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Minnesota +3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bills, Texans, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)

Both of these teams started a surprising 2-0 after finishing with a top-10 pick last season and then fell flat in their 3rd game of the season last week to fall to 2-1. However, one team is significantly better than the other. While the Bills are moving the chains at a 64.10% rate, 31st in the NFL, while allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.33% rate, 16th in the NFL, the Texans are 21st (72.94%) and 20th (75.54%) respectively. That means that, while the Texans aren’t that impressive with a rate of moving the chains differential of -2.57% (22nd in the NFL), they’re better than the Bills who are -9.23% (31st).

That being said, it’s not a high confidence pick on the Texans, even as they are mere 3 point home favorites. The Texans aren’t in a good spot as they have to travel to Dallas next week, where they will likely be underdogs. Teams are 68-99 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Bills have to go to Detroit next week, so they have some upcoming distractions, but the Texans are still in the worse spot. The Texans are the pick, but I’m not that confident.

Houston Texans 17 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Saints’ road struggles are well documented and they’ve been especially bad over the past two seasons. Just this season, they’ve already lost in Atlanta and Cleveland as road favorites. The Saints are 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season, as opposed to 8-0-1 ATS at home and I’ve had a good deal of success picking their games almost solely taking them at home and going against them on the road against the spread.

However, it seems like this line is already compensating for that, maybe overcompensating, as the Saints are mere 3 point favorites in Dallas. The Saints are a lot better than their record suggests as they could easily be 3-0. They have a positive point differential and they rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential on the strength of a dominant home offensive performance last week in which they scored 3 touchdowns on 7 drives (excluding a 14 play, 70 yard drive to end the game) and picked up 27 first downs in the process. The Saints are moving the chains at an 83.76% rate on the season, as opposed to 76.92% for their opponents, a differential of 6.86% that ranks 4th in the NFL and is comparable to their 8.12% differential from last season, which ranked 2nd. That’s despite playing 2 of 3 games on the road.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 2-1, but they’ve played 3 teams (San Francisco, Tennessee, St. Louis) that are a combined 3-6 and they could have easily lost last week in St. Louis. Their offense looks good, moving the chains at a 78.00% rate, but their opponents are moving the chains at a 76.47% rate. I know that’s actually better than the Saints defense, but it’s only three games in and the Saints are far more talented on that side of the ball so I don’t expect that to be that way at the end of the season and the Cowboys’ offense isn’t close to the Saints’ offense.

The Saints are also in a good spot before a home game against Tampa Bay. Teams are 97-74 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites, which they very well good be next week. At the end of the day, I picked the Saints to win the Super Bowl and the Cowboys to finish 4-12 at the beginning of the season. Those might both end up being wrong, but I don’t see the Saints starting 1-3, while the Cowboys start 3-1 so as long as this line is at 3, I’m comfortable taking New Orleans, even on the road.

New Orleans Saints 34 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Panthers, Ravens, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Baltimore is usually an auto-bet at home as long as they aren’t big favorites. The Ravens are 42-10 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 20-11 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdog. To make thing worse, the Panthers are missing a lot. After losing essentially their entire secondary and receiving corps in the off-season, as well as their top two offensive linemen, the Panthers have now lost Greg Hardy, arguably their top defensive player, to a team imposed suspension and they may be down to their 4th string running back. Hardy’s absence wasn’t noticeable in a home win over the Lions, but it certainly was when the Steelers moved the ball up and down the field with ease in a 37-19 win.

However, the Panthers are in a better spot here as Baltimore has to go to Indianapolis next week while the Panthers have a home game against the Bears. Teams are 106-69 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 68-99 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining those, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008 and 54-37 since 2002 when all three games are non-divisional. It’s essentially the reverse of last week for Carolina, when they were going to Baltimore and Pittsburgh had Tampa Bay next, part of the reason why the Panthers looked so bad last week. It’s not enough for me to take the Panthers, but I’m not confident in the Ravens at all.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]