Jacksonville Jaguars trade QB Blaine Gabbert to San Francisco 49ers

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Jaguars, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Trade for Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert was awful in 3 seasons with the Jaguars since being taken with the 10th overall pick in 2011, proving to be one of the biggest draft busts over the past 5 or so years. He completed 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions in those 3 seasons, a quarterback rating of 66.4. He made 27 starts over those 3 seasons and won 5 of them, going 5-22. The Jaguars were not going to keep him around going into 2014 so credit them for somehow getting a 6th round pick for him.

Grade: A

Trade for 49ers: While it was a good deal for the Jaguars somehow getting something for Gabbert, it wasn’t necessarily a bad deal for the 49ers trading for him. If it made sense for any team trading for him, they are that team. They desperately needed a backup quarterback behind Colin Kaepernick with Colt McCoy gone and McLeod Bethel-Thompson being the only other quarterback on the roster besides Kaepernick before this trade.

If anyone can get the talent out of Gabbert that got him taken 10th overall, it’s Jim Harbaugh, a known quarterback whispered. Harbaugh is known for having a history with Gabbert, as he recruited him heavily when he was the head coach at Stanford (he eventually went to Missouri) and the 49ers heavily considered drafting him 7th overall in Harbaugh’s first draft in 2011, eventually opting to go with his Missouri teammate Aldon Smith (it was a much smarter move).

The 49ers also had so many picks coming into this draft so losing a 6th round pick, worst case scenario, won’t hurt them. As bad as Gabbert is, they were unlikely to find a better backup quarterback than him in the 6th round. His 2 million dollar salary is pretty expensive for him, but they can probably restructure his contract fairly easily if he does show enough to make their roster. It’s not a terrible deal.

Grade: B

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Oakland Raiders sign RB Maurice Jones-Drew

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

Maurice Jones-Drew has seen a steep fall from his 2011 season, in which he led the NFL with 1606 rushing yards. That season, he averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 343 carries, added 43 catches for 374 yards and scored 11 times. He did all of that on an otherwise abysmal offense during Blaine Gabbert’s rookie year, which makes it all the more impressive. That off-season, he demanded a contract that would have paid him among the best running backs in the NFL, holding out almost into the season when the Jaguars didn’t meet his demands.

It turns out that not paying him was one of the best moves the Jaguars have made over the past 5 years. After a 1084 touch workload from 2009-2011, MJD cracked in 2012, managing just 84 carries over 6 years, though he did average 4.8 yards per carry. 2013 was arguably worse as he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on 234 carries, scored just 5 times on 277 touches, and had just 5 touches go for 20+ yards. One a candidate to be the highest paid running back in the NFL on his next contract, MJD was met with a frigid market as a free agent going into his age 29 season, signing this 3 year, 7.5 million dollar deal with the Raiders that has just 2.5 million over 1 year guaranteed.

MJD’s rough 2013 season could be largely the result of the complete lack of offensive talent, and thus running room, around him in Jacksonville. However, he averaged just 2.2 yards after contact, broke just 26 tackles, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst running back in terms of pure running grade. Now going into his age 29 season with 2139 career touches, he’s unlikely to get more explosive going into 2014.

He’ll be an asset for the Raiders in passing downs because he still has strong pass catching and pass blocking skills, catching 43 passes and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in both pass catching grade and pass blocking grade, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd best running back in pass blocking grade. He’s probably a worse pure runner than Darren McFadden, but he’ll still contribute for the Raiders in some form.

He’ll make up an underwhelming running back tandem with McFadden as both running backs have lost a great deal of explosiveness over the past 2 seasons due to injury, but this is a fairly inexpensive deal. It’s a solid value when you compare it to other deals received by running backs this off-season, including Darren McFadden (1 year, 4 million), Joique Bell (3 years, 9.3 million), Donald Brown (3 years, 10.5 million), Ben Tate (2 years, 7 million), Knowshon Moreno (1 year, 3 million), LeGarrette Blount (2 years, 3.85 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 14 million) this off-season.

Grade: B+

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade C Jeremy Zuttah to the Baltimore Ravens

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

Trade for Ravens: The Ravens desperately needed a new center as Gino Gradkowski struggled mightily in his first season as a starter in place of the retired Matt Birk. The 2012 4th round pick graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked center last season. Jeremy Zuttah is not a great center, grading out 22nd ranked center out of 35 eligible last season and 24th out of 36 eligible in 2012, but he’s a massive upgrade over Gradkowski.

The issue worth discussing here is not in the compensation sent to the Buccaneers as a 5th round pick is not much. The Ravens would have had trouble finding a center even this good in the 5th round. The issue worth discussing is how much the Ravens are paying him. They’re not just getting a starting center for a 5th round pick as they had to sign him to a 5-year, 18 million dollar deal. Zuttah originally had 8.75 million over 2 years left on his deal, but none of that was guaranteed.

The Ravens have cut his salary over the next 2 seasons to a total of 7.5 million, but guaranteed 6.5 million of that so he’s essentially getting a 2-year, 7.5 million dollar deal (or a 1-year, 6.5 million dollar deal) guaranteed. The Ravens will then have “options” for him at 3.5 million dollars apiece for the 2016, 2017, and 2018 seasons. It’s a small overpay for a mediocre center, but it is a reasonable deal for the Ravens in their current situation.

Grade: B

Trade for Buccaneers: Zuttah was overpaid at 4.5 million for 2014 and 4.25 million for 2015, so I understand why the Buccaneers would want to move on from him and from that angle, credit them for getting a 5th round pick, rather than cutting him outright, which is easier said than done. However, this move would have made more sense earlier in free agency when there were still options to replace Zuttah on the open market. Now the Buccaneers seem stuck with a combination of Jamon Meredith and Patrick Omameh and maybe a rookie at right guard now. It’s still a decent move though. There’s no real winner in this trade.

Grade: B

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Oakland Raiders re-sign DT Pat Sims

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

The Raiders let a number of good, young players go this off-season, letting LaMarr Houston, Vance Walker, and Jared Veldheer leave and replacing them with aging veterans like Antonio Smith, Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, and Donald Penn. It’s an odd strategy and use of cap space. That being said, they’re making a great move here bringing back Pat Sims on a cheap, one year deal after he, for some reason, generated very little interest on the open market.

Sims was a 3rd round pick by the Bengals in 2008 and was a largely irrelevant backup in Cincinnati for 5 years before last season, playing a combined 481 snaps in 2011 and 2012. He broke out in Oakland last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle last season on 694 snaps, excelling against the run and grading out above average as both a pass rusher and a run stopper. He’s still just a one year wonder at this point, which is part of the reason why he saw little interest on the open market, but this is still a steal for the Raiders, bringing him back for 2 million over 1 year. He’s only going into his age 29 season so he’s still relatively young, which is a positive contrast from most of the moves the Raiders have made this off-season.

Grade: A

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Washington Redskins re-sign CB DeAngelo Hall

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Last off-season, DeAngelo Hall was cut from his large contract by the Redskins and brought back on a cheap one-year deal worth about a million dollars. It made sense. He was going into his age 30 season and had graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in 4 of his last 5 seasons, dating back to 2008. The only season he graded out above average was 2010. In 2011, he was Pro Football Focus’ 66th ranked cornerback out of 109 eligible and in 2012 he was 70th out of 113 eligible. He struggled again in 2013, grading out 84th out of 110 eligible and, now going into his age 31 season, I thought he’d have to settle for another cheap one year deal on the open market.

I guess the Redskins had different idea, giving him this 4-year deal worth 17 million. I’m not entirely sure what he did to deserve that. He was part of the problem for the Redskins in their terrible secondary last season, not part of the solution, and they could have gotten a much better cornerback for this kind of money. The only good part of this deal is that there is just 4.5 million over 1 season guaranteed. The Redskins can cut him after one year, which they probably will after he predictably struggles again next season, and not owe him anything more. This could easily be just a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal with the cap hit split over 2 seasons. Even that’s about 4 times too much over a year for Hall though.

Grade: C-

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Philadelphia Eagles re-sign OT Jason Peters

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Jason Peters was Pro Football Focus’ #1 offensive tackle in 2011 and by a large margin, dominating as both a run and pass blocker. However, he tore his Achilles in 2012 and missed the entire season. He came back in 2013 and he wasn’t the same player, but it would have been hard to be as good as he was in 2011 regardless. His season was still very impressive, especially for someone coming off the kind of injury he was coming off of, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked offensive tackle. He was also Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked offensive tackle in 2010 and 21st ranked offensive tackle in 2009.

Peters already had one year worth 9.65 million dollars left on his deal and this deal adds 38.65 million dollars over 4 years to that original deal (with an extra 3 million available through Pro Bowl escalators). This deal is total 48.3 million over 5 years. Giving someone going into his age 32 season with this kind of injury history (he also missed 9 games from 2008-2011 and 2013 was his first 16 game season since before 2008) this kind of money might seem a little excessive, but he’s definitely more than deserving of this money at his best.

The average annual salary of 9.66 million is 6th in the NFL, right ahead of Branden Albert, who got 46 million over 5 years this off-season as the open market’s highest paid offensive tackle. Peters is a significantly better player than Albert. Albert also got 25 million guaranteed, while Peters’ guarantee is just 19.55 million guaranteed, significantly less than Albert’s. It’s even less guaranteed when you take into account that about half of that (9.65 million) is money he would have gotten regardless of this extension as they would not have cut Peters going into his contract year.

It’s really only 9.9 million in new guarantees and the Eagles can get out of this as a 2-year, 19.55 million dollar deal for his age 32 and 33 seasons if they want to. His cash salaries for his non-guaranteed years in 2016, 2017, and 2018 are 8.3 million, 10.2 million, and 10.25 million respectively. They would probably not have been able to re-sign him to a deal with just 9.9 million guaranteed next off-season. This was a low-risk, forward thinking, and team friendly deal for a team to keep their incredibly valuable and incredibly talented blindside protector during what still seem to be his peak years.

Grade: A

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Philadelphia Eagles re-sign WR Jeremy Maclin

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I like the idea of the Eagles re-signing Jeremy Maclin and cutting DeSean Jackson and his 10.7 million dollar salary. Maclin is actually the more versatile play maker and I think he can be a strong fit in Chip Kelly’s offense, though he’s yet to play for Kelly in a regular season game after tearing his ACL before last season. Injuries have been the problem for Maclin throughout his career as the 2009 1st round pick has missed 21 games in 5 years in his career, including all of last season and has only once played all 16 games.

Injuries are a big part of the reason why he’s never had a 1000 yard season in his career despite frequently flashing top level ability. He’s come close with a 70/964/10 line in 2010 and a 63/859/5 line in 13 games in 2011, but he’s never crossed that threshold. I think he has a good chance to do so this year, should he stay healthy. When healthy, he’s a better receiver than Riley Cooper and I think he and a rookie receiver can replace DeSean Jackson for less money.

I like the idea of giving Jeremy Maclin a one year prove it deal and I think he could break out on this deal in 2014, but 5.5 million dollars is a lot of money on a prove it deal for an injury prone receiver who has never had more than 1000 yards in a season. He could definitely prove to be worth it, but I think they probably could have gotten him cheaper. Compare this to the 3.975 million dollars that Hakeem Nicks got from the Colts on a prove it deal and this seems like a small overpay. That’s slightly nitpicking though and he could definitely prove to be worth this.

Grade: A-

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Philadelphia Eagles re-sign WR Riley Cooper

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This deal is part of the reason why the Eagles moved on from DeSean Jackson. They think they can replace DeSean Jackson with a healthy Jeremy Maclin and a rookie along with a bigger role for Riley Cooper. Cooper is getting 22.5 million over 5 years, though with only 9 million over 2 years guaranteed. I have a hard time seeing him getting that on the open market. A year ago, Cooper was the Eagles 4th receiver and had 46 catches for 679 catches and 5 touchdowns in his career in 3 years since being drafted in the 5th round by the Eagles in 2010.

He struggled to start the 2013 season as well, catching 8 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown in his first 5 games in a starting role, before breaking out down the stretch. Once Nick Foles came under center, it was a big boost to Cooper’s stats as the Eagles’ passing offense broke out and Foles liked to throw to Cooper more often than Michael Vick did. Cooper caught 45 passes for 810 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 12 games including playoffs. The Eagles are paying a lot of money for a system player who, as of early October, was a non-factor as a receiver in the league.

I like the Eagles’ general direction at wide receiver this off-season, re-signing Jeremy Maclin, cutting DeSean Jackson and his large salary, and replacing him with a combination of a hopefully healthy Maclin and a rookie, but this is too much money for Cooper. This is the definition of buying high. The other angle here is that Cooper may have struggled to get as much money as he otherwise would have on the open market because of the comments he made last off-season and the potential locker room issues that signing him could cause. The Eagles’ locker room generally seemed to forgive and accept him, but it’s not clear if the rest of the league would feel the same way.

Grade: C

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade WR Mike Williams to Buffalo Bills

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Trade for Bills: Mike Williams is on a big contract, but only 1.8 million of the deal is left guaranteed so the Bills are essentially getting Williams on a 1-year, 1.8 million dollar deal with “options” for 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 at 6.8 million, 7.2 million, 7.5 million, and 8.75 million respectively. He’s unlikely to be back with the team in 2015 at that salary as the Bills will likely cut him or force him to restructure his deal following this season.

Considering Williams has shown he can be a very solid receiver when he has a fire lit under him, it’s a worthwhile gamble with little downside and potentially high upside. Williams had strong years in 2010 (65/964/11) and 2012 (63/996/9), grading out well above average on Pro Football Focus in each season. However, in 2011, he had just 65 catches for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns, grading out well below average, and reportedly displaying a very poor work ethic. In 2013, he had 22 catches for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in just 6 games before going down with injury.

After his injury, he reportedly incurred 200K in fines for a variety of activity detrimental to the team, including missing meetings. He has a history of this type of behavior, not just in 2011 and 2013, but dating back to his collegiate days at the Syracuse University, when he was kicked off the team, ironically by head coach Doug Marrone, who is now head coach of the Bills. Williams also has a myriad of minor off the field incidents over the past calendar year, which are concerning when you put everything together.

All of that makes up why he was traded to the Bills for a 6th round pick, but this could serve as the wake-up call he needs to continue alternating bad years with strong years. This move will allow the Bills to likely cut Steve Johnson and save 5.675 million dollars in cash and immediately 75K in cap space and a combined 5.675 million dollars in cap space over the next two seasons. They are likely getting a comparable player for about a third of the price. In that scenario, they’d go into 2014 with Mike Williams, Robert Woods, TJ Graham, and Marquise Goodwin as their top receivers with the option to add another receiver through the draft.

The only concern is that Williams has a good enough season that he tricks the Bills into keeping him for 2015 at 6.8 million and then he coasts again. There are also minor concerns about Williams polluting the locker room or eventually doing something bad enough that he gets suspended. It’s still a worthwhile gamble with high upside and high potential dividends at the price of a 6th round pick.

Grade: A

Trade for Buccaneers: I guess the Buccaneers were just done with Williams after everything. The new regime coming in under Lovie Smith seems to be instituting a no tolerance policy for this type of behavior. Cutting him wasn’t a good option as they’d have to pay him 1.8 million dollars for this season either way, so I guess credit them for getting out of that and getting a 6th round pick. However, I would have just kept him at that salary and dealt with him after the season. This could easily become a case of one team’s trash becoming another team’s treasure in the Bills’ favor.

Grade: C

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Washington Redskins sign WR DeSean Jackson

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Eagles cut Jackson because he was owed 10.7 million dollars and they didn’t want to pay him that when they already had 5+ million yearly committed to Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin at the wide receiver position (not because of racism). There are also reports of disrespectful behavior on Jackson’s part and he even confirmed that he was late to some meetings.

Whether or not any potential gang affiliation played a role is unknown, but comments from some people who have known Jackson since his childhood, coupled with the heavy interest Jackson was met with on the open market suggests that any affiliations were blown out of proportion by shoddy journalism. It really seems like, plain and simple, the Eagles didn’t want to pay Jackson 10.7 million dollars and think they can replace his production with a combination of a rookie and a now healthy Jeremy Maclin to go with Riley Cooper.

That makes a lot of sense. Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked wide receiver last year, but that’s not consistent with his history as he was actually about an average to slightly above average wide receiver on Pro Football Focus from 2008-2012. It’s possible that he was just a product of Chip Kelly’s offense last season. Even in his 1000 yard seasons in 2009 and 2010, Jackson was only catching about half of his targets as an inconsistent, one trick pony deep threat. Couple that with the fact that he can cause headaches to coaching staffs from time to time and I think the Eagles’ decision to move on from him makes a lot of sense, regardless of any gang affiliation.

The Redskins are getting him at a cheaper rate than the Eagles would have, giving him a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal with 16 million guaranteed, but they still might be overpaying for a system receiver. On top of that, the Redskins didn’t have a lot of cap space coming into this move, part of why they had to add a 4th “dummy year” to this deal to spread out the cap hit over 4 years instead of 3 years. This will be an expensive deal for the Redskins over the next few years and I don’t know if this is the right area for them to be allocating their cap space. They already have a #1 receiver in Pierre Garcon, but they have a large amount of holes on the defensive side of the balls, an amount that will grow next off-season if this deal makes the Redskins unable to retain Brian Orakpo long-term.

Jackson will make 8 million dollars per year in every season of this deal, including a non-guaranteed 8 million in the third year in 2016. This year, 5 million of that is the signing bonus so his cap hit will actually only be 4.25 million (3 million in salary, 1.25 million in prorated signing bonus). However, he’ll have a cap number of 9.25 million in 2015 and if he’s cut after the 2015 season, he’ll have a cap number of 2.5 million in 2016. If he stays on the roster in 2016, he’ll have a cap number of 9.25 million in 2016 and 1.25 million in 2017, his “dummy year.” It’s a lot to commit to a wide receiver when you already have a #1 receiver.

Grade: B-

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