2013 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Pick: Jason Peters

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Awards, News, Uncategorized

We don’t have nearly the Comeback Player of the Year field that we had a year ago. If anyone this year did what Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning, or Jamaal Charles did in 2012, they would have won this year’s award by runaway. Instead, we have only maximum three real candidates this year, depending on your particular definition of “comeback.”

Jason Peters fits every definition of comeback. He tore his Achilles in the off-season before the 2012 season and didn’t play a snap all season. Going into his age 31 season in 2013, there was reason to doubt he’d be the same player he was before the injury. He wasn’t quite the player he was in 2011, when he was the runaway top offensive tackle on Pro Football Focus, but he still had a fantastic year.

He was a deserving Pro-Bowler on one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked offensive tackle, surrendering 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and committing 4 penalties, while excelling as a run blocker as well. He was a great fit in Chip Kelly’s offense, often lining up in weird formations and having to move around much more than the usual offensive tackle. Even at his age and off of a serious leg injury, Peters did not lack athleticism at all and was a big part of the Eagles’ success.

Terrell Suggs is another candidate whose comeback has a looser definition. Suggs also tore his Achilles right around the same time Jason Peters did, but he came back last year to play 8 games, 12 games if you include the Super Bowl run. He also suffered a serious biceps injury along the way and predictably was a shell of his normal self and even that’s being generous. Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2011 and the 2011 Defensive Player of the Year, Suggs graded out below average in 2012.

In 2013, there was some concern that, going his age 31 season, he had ruined his body playing through all of those injuries in 2012 and that he wouldn’t be the same player again. He wasn’t the same player in 2013, but he was still pretty damn good, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker. Baltimore didn’t even make the playoffs in 2013, the year after winning the Super Bowl, but you can’t blame the defense, as it was one of the best in the NFL. In fact, I’d say the 2013 defense, regular season at least, was better than the 2012 defense in the regular season. Suggs being fully healthy again was a big part of that.

Philip Rivers is the 3rd candidate and his candidacy requires the loosest definition of comeback, as he hasn’t missed a game in 9 years as a starter. Instead, his comeback was a comeback from poor coaching and a lack of talent around him. After posting QB ratings of 100+ for 3 straight seasons from 2008-2010, Rivers saw his QB rating drop into the 80s in both 2011 and 2012. There were rumors of injuries and age, going into his age 32 season, was also seen as a factor.

Instead, Rivers found the fountain of youth in 2013, with help from his new coaching staff and the front office. New head coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt did a fantastic job fixing Rivers and building an offense better suited to his strengths. Also, after playing for 2 years with minimal offensive supporting cast, new GM Tom Telesco (who got some Executive of the Year consideration from me) did a great job fixing the situation, without big offensive signings and with just one off-season. Drafting DJ Fluker in the first round helped, but the real steals were getting Keenan Allen (an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate) in the 3rd round getting and King Dunlap and Danny Woodhead on cheap contracts in free agency.

The results were great. Rivers posted a 105.5 QB rating that tied for his career best. He completed 69.5% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while leading the Chargers to a 2nd place finish in rate of moving the chains and an AFC Wild Card berth, in spite of a terrible defense supporting him. Rivers still didn’t have a lot of offensive help around him, but he made the most of it and would get my 2nd place MVP vote behind Peyton Manning. At the end of the day, I’m taking Jason Peters here because he fits the truest definition of a comeback and because the way he dominated his position this season, after what happened last season and his age, is very impressive, but all 3 got consideration.

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2013 NFL Coach of the Year Pick: Bill Belichick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Awards, News, Uncategorized

What Andy Reid has done in Kansas City this season is impressive, but it’s overshadowed by what Bill Belichick has done in New England. At the beginning of the season, I did a list of the top-200 NFL players. New England had 11, tied with Seattle and San Francisco for the most. Of those 11 players, 4 are currently on season ending injured reserve (Sebastian Vollmer, Rob Gronkowski, Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork).

One has fumbled his way to the bench (Stevan Ridley) and has been replaced in the starting lineup by a guy who was traded for a 7th round pick last April (LeGarrette Blount). Another (Danny Amendola) is 3rd on the team in snaps played at wide receiver behind a guy who is making less than a million dollars on a one year deal (Julian Edelman) and a guy who went undrafted in April’s draft (Kenbrell Thompkins). Another (Ryan Wendell) has not lived up to a strong 2012. Even their future Hall-of-Fame quarterback (Tom Brady) has showed his age and not lived up to expectations. Of those top-200, only Devin McCourty, who has quietly become one of the premier safeties in the game, Logan Mankins and Nate Solder have played 15+ games and exceeded expectations.

Add in Aaron Hernandez’s incarceration in June, Shane Vereen missing 8 games, Aqib Talib being in and out of the lineup with hip problems, Wes Welker leaving, and an improved AFC East and you have the perfect storm it would have taken to knock the Patriots off of their extended run of dominance, which had featured 11 seasons of 10+ wins, 10 division titles, 9 seasons of 11+ wins, 7 seasons of 12+ wins, 7 AFC Championships appearances, 5 Super Bowl appearances, and 3 Super Bowl victories. If they had gone 8-8 this season, no one would have been surprised.

Instead, the Patriots won 12 games and the AFC East by 4 games, got the AFC’s #2 seed and yet another 1st round bye, and didn’t lose by more than a touchdown all season, with all 4 losses possibly winnable. They seem poised for yet another AFC Championship appearance. They won by 34 in Baltimore, something that had never been done in the history of the Ravens franchise, shattering the previous record margin of victory by a road team of 27.

In that game, they started their left guard at left tackle and had 6 separate rookies play at least 50 snaps, including two rookies who went undrafted (Chris Jones, Josh Kline) and another (Duron Harmon) who everyone laughed at the Patriots for drafting in the 3rd round. Sealver Siliga, an inexperienced 2011 undrafted rookie signed off the street, also started that game, as he did in the week 17 game against Buffalo, a 34-20 victory in which Siliga shined against the run.

Fellow undrafted rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Joe Vellano also contributed significantly to this team this season, each playing over 500 snaps. Add in Chris Jones and that’s 3 undrafted rookies who played 500+ snaps for them. The Patriots had at least 58 different players play at least one snap on offense or defense and 46 different players play at least 100 snaps. Basically, if you made this team’s 53 man roster out of the pre-season, you played a significant role on this team this season, unless you got hurt, which you probably did.

Yes, Andy Reid improved the Chiefs from 2 wins to 11 wins, but being significantly better than Romeo Crennel sometimes isn’t enough to win you this award. This year is one of those times. If Bill Belichick is coaching the Chiefs, they win at least 11 games. You can’t say the same thing for the Patriots with Andy Reid. Never mind the fact that coaching is just Bill Belichick’s day job, that he also is the general manager of this team and makes all of the personnel decisions. I don’t know when the man sleeps, especially this season. Maybe that’s why he constantly looks like a zombie in a hoodie on the sideline every Sunday, but 75% of the time, they’ve won.

And if for no other reason, give it to him because he’s only won the award 3 times in his career, even though the vast majority of people would agree he’s the greatest coach of his era and one of the tops of all time. The fact that he’s only won it 3 times is borderline criminal and a testament to how messed up the Coach of the Year voting system is. The media almost always gives this award to a first year coach who saw a big improvement in win total (as it’s been 4 of the last 7 times), not the man who did the best job. This season, and most seasons, that’s Bill Belichick.

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2013 NFL Executive of the Year Pick: Dave Gettleman

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Awards, News, Uncategorized

Dave Gettleman was hired as the Panthers’ general manager in January of 2013, coming over from his previous job as Senior Pro Personnel Analyst with the New York Giants, where he had worked in the front office since 1999. He deserves a lot of credit for the Panthers’ breakout season and thus this award. An examination of the Panthers’ salary cap shows us why. The Panthers have 7 players with cap numbers of higher than 5 million this season, which puts them among the tops in the NFL, none of whose current contract was signed while Gettleman was the general manager. Teams who are structured like that almost have to get top level performances from those highly paid players to be successful.

How did those guys fare for Carolina this year? Well, Jon Beason was traded to New York early in the season after getting benched, leaving about 5.3 million in dead money on Carolina’s cap with him. DeAngelo Williams carried the ball 201 times and averaged about 4.2 yards per carry, hardly worth his top-10 positional cap number. Steve Smith caught 64 passes for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, for the 4th worst season of his career, behind his rookie year, the Jimmy Clausen year, and the year he missed 15 games with injury. Among wide receivers, he was 14th in cap number and 39th in receiving yards. Also 10 tight ends had more receiving yards than him.

Ryan Kalil had a solid season, but didn’t live up to the then record contract for a center he signed a few years back. His cap number was 3rd at his position, but he ranked just 10th among centers on Pro Football Focus. Charles Johnson also had a solid season, coming in 19th among 4-3 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus, but that hardly makes him worth the 5th highest cap number among 4-3 defensive ends and 8th among defensive ends regardless of scheme.

Only two of those seven had years that were worth their cap number. Thomas Davis is one. His cap number was 3rd among 4-3 outside linebackers, but that’s also exactly where he graded out at his position on Pro Football Focus. Thomas Davis wasn’t signed by Gettleman. He was inherited. However, Gettleman is undoubtedly a big part of the reason why he’s still here. Davis has torn his ACL three times in his career. Not many general managers would have kept a guy like that on the roster at his current cap number when cutting him would have saved over 2 million in cap space and close to 5 million in cash. Gettleman did and the Panthers were rewarded for it.

Cam Newton is the other one. He had a cap number of about 6 million, by virtue of being the #1 overall pick in 2011. It’s a solid chunk of the cap, but it was just 18th among quarterbacks. I think you’d have a hard time finding 17 quarterbacks who had a better season than Cam Newton. Newton wasn’t drafted by Gettleman, so he doesn’t deserve credit here, but it’s worth noting that he’s one of the few good things left behind by the previous regime.

There were a few other good things left behind by the previous regime. Gettleman didn’t draft either Luke Kueckly or Greg Hardy, both of whom were vital to Carolina’s success this season and greatly exceeded their cap numbers on their rookie deals. Veteran Jordan Gross had a vintage year this year and was much better than his 4.9 million dollar cap number. However, it’s still a head scratcher how Carolina was not only able to finish 12-4, win the NFC South, and get the #2 seed, despite having their high cap number guys struggle, but also how they were able to do this with about 11 million dollars left in cap space, 6th in the NFL.

There are two reasons for this and Gettleman has his hands all over both of them. They got great production out of guys signed to cheap deals and they nailed the 2013 NFL Draft, Gettleman’s first with the team. The biggest example of cheap salaried guys making a huge impact is in the secondary. The secondary was in dire need of help coming off of last season and desperately needed an overhaul. However, the Panthers didn’t commit a single draft pick to it.

It was a risky move, but it paid off. The Panthers finished 11th in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed and 2nd in the NFL in points allowed. Captain Munnerlyn, Michael Mitchell, Melvin White, Quintin Mikell, and Drayton Florence were the top-5 guys in terms of snaps played on that secondary. Not exactly big name guys, but they definitely got the job done. They combined to play 3897 snaps and only Melvin White graded out below average on Pro Football Focus and he did so just barely. Their combined salary cap number: About 3.6 million. That’s bargain shopping.

Who are these guys and where did Gettleman find them? Mitchell was a 2nd round pick in 2009 by the Raiders and washed out of Oakland, signing with Carolina for 1 million dollars this past off-season. Quintin Mikell is a veteran in his age 33 season, his 11th in the NFL, and was completely overlooked by the league because of that, signing with Carolina for the veteran’s minimum right before the season started. Drayton Florence was in a similar situation, also in his age 33 season and his 11th in the NFL, but he was actually cut from his one year deal by the Panthers in final cuts, before re-signing with them for the veterans minimum in mid-September. Melvin White, meanwhile, signed with the Panthers as an undrafted rookie out of Louisiana-Lafayette after the draft.

The only one of those five who was on the Panthers’ roster before the season was Captain Munnerlyn, a 6th round pick of the Panthers in 2008 and someone who did play a lot of snaps for the Panthers in past seasons. Gettleman didn’t draft Munnerlyn, but he did bring him back on a one year, 1.1 million dollar deal this off-season, after he failed to get more than that on the open market. Munnerlyn was the highest paid of their secondary quintet, but he was also the best of the bunch. The diminutive 5-8 cornerback excelled in all 3 facets of the game, run defense, pass coverage, and blitzing, doing his best Antoine Winfield impression and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback.

The secondary wasn’t the only area where Gettleman found deals. Needing help on the offensive line and wide receiver, Gettleman turned to Travelle Wharton and Ted Ginn, who each had cap numbers of 1.1 million this past year. Turning to Wharton and Ginn wasn’t exactly in vogue this off-season, which is why they were able to come so cheap. Wharton is a former Carolina offensive lineman who gave them some good years from 2004-2012, but got released as a cap casualty after the 2011 season. Wharton then went to Cincinnati, but didn’t play a regular season snap for the team, missing the entirety of the season with a knee injury. The Panthers took a chance on the 10-year veteran going into his age 32 season, coming off of a lost season with injury, and having been cut twice since his last regular season snap, and the rewards were great. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked guard.

Ted Ginn wasn’t quite as good. The bust of a 2007 1st round pick bounced around from Miami to San Francisco to Carolina this last off-season, but he definitely had a positive impact and I don’t just mean catching the winning touchdown in the Panthers’ victory over New Orleans, which essentially won them the NFC South. Ginn was 4th on the team in receiving, catching 36 passes for 556 yards and 5 touchdowns. That doesn’t sound like much, but he graded out above average as a receiver in Pro Football Focus and played a valuable role as the 3rd receiver. He also provided value on special teams, averaging 12.2 yards per punt return on 26 returns and 23.8 yards per kickoff return on 25 returns.

And that was just in free agency. Gettleman’s first year on the job also featured a very strong draft. He didn’t have a lot of resources to work with, as the Panthers had just 5 picks in this draft, as a result of past trades. Their final 3 draft picks (Edmund Kugbila, AJ Klein, and Kenjon Barner) didn’t do much of note this season, but given the way Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short, their first and second round picks respectively, played, they didn’t have to. Both emerged as starters at what was a long-time need position of defensive tackle and they didn’t just start. They both played extremely well and should get Defensive Rookie of the Year consideration, grading out 16th and 14th respectively among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus.

Now, Gettleman doesn’t deserve all the credit for the production of the cheap signings and rookies. The players themselves obviously deserve some credit, as does head coach Ron Rivera, but Gettleman deserves most of the credit. Gettleman also deserves credit for not firing Ron Rivera, who is a Coach of the Year Candidate in his own right, after the public outcry for him to be let go and after it would have been very easy to let him go. Even I thought they should have fired him, after his continued struggles in close games to start the season (2-14 to start his career in games decided by a touchdown or less at that point) threatened to derail my prediction that they would win 12 games, the NFC South, and get the #2 seed (it didn’t thankfully). For all of the great work he did getting them to that point in a tough situation given the previous regime’s habit of giving out undeserved exorbitant contracts, Gettleman deserves Executive of the Year.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 AFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Wild Card Picks, Chiefs, Colts, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

This is the game I’m staying away from, simply because of how inconsistent Indianapolis has been this season. They’ve been alternating multiple game stretches where they’ve looked like a 13-3 team and a 6-10 team, with nothing really in between. Last season, they were nowhere near as good as their 11-5 record, as that was powered by 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished 7-9 or worse. They started out looking like that team, barely beating Oakland and losing to Miami in back-to-back home games. However, then they went on a roll over a 6 game stretch that included wins over good teams (Denver, Seattle, San Francisco) and blowout wins (34 point win in Jacksonville) that their 2012 season just didn’t have.

However, then after the bye they came out and looked like their 2012 team or even worse, with 3 point wins over Tennessee and Houston and then an 8 point win over Tennessee, but also a 29 point loss against Arizona, a 14 point loss against Cincinnati, and a 30 point loss against St. Louis. They had a -59 point differential over a 6 game stretch in which they got blown out by every decent team they faced and barely beat mediocre football teams. It reeked of 2012. However, since then, they’ve blown out the Texans by 22, went into Kansas City and won convincingly by 16 against a good football team, and then blew out Jacksonville by 20, in a game that was never really close.

Overall on the season, they’ve averaged out as an 11-5 team that’s lucky to be 11-5, with a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a pretty easy schedule. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they’re only 14th, which is the lowest among playoff teams who had their current starting quarterback start all 16 games. They move the chains at a 72.21% rate and allow opponents to move the chains at a 71.52% rate, which is good for a differential of 0.70%. Football Outsiders echoes this, as they rank 13th in DVOA and rank 11th in what’s known as “estimated wins” with 9.5. After San Diego, they’re probably the worst playoff team when you look at their season on the whole, but they never play like that 9 or 10 win team. They’re either great or terrible.

They also rank 29th in terms of variance on Football Outsides, which means they were the 4th most inconsistent team. There are actually playoff teams with very high variances, including Philadelphia who ranks 32nd, but there are always good explanation for why certain teams have high variances. Philadelphia changed quarterbacks mid-season. Green Bay (28th) lost Aaron Rodgers for a large chunk of the season. New Orleans (25th) has a huge home/road disparity. The same is true of Cincinnati (21st). Indianapolis’ seems to be unexplainable. For that reason, I actually kind of hope they lose, regardless of what I end up picking, because it would make my life easier.

Making matters even worse, Kansas City is 23rd in variance. There’s is somewhat explainable. They’ve just struggled with good teams this season. They’ve had arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL this season and won all 10 games against teams that finished under .500, but they’re just 1-5 against .500 or better teams. Sure one of those losses came in a meaningless game against the Chargers week 17, but also their only win came against Philadelphia, before Nick Foles took over as starting quarterback. That bodes well for Indianapolis’ chances this week, provided they don’t go cold, as they’ve obviously been prone to doing.

Kansas City, however, has had the better season overall. While Indianapolis ranks 14th in rate of moving the chains and 13th in DVOA, Kansas City ranks 7th in both. They move the chains at a 72.08% rate, as opposed to 67.81% for their opponents, a differential of 4.27%. Using rate of moving the chains, this game should be a pick ‘em, as opposed to Indianapolis being favored by 2.5. The Chiefs also are getting Justin Houston back this week, which will be very big for their defense. In the first 10 games of the season, they allowed 13.8 points per game. In their last 5 (excluding the meaningless week 17 games), which includes a game Houston started, but left earlier with injury, they’ve allowed 26.0 points per game.

That’s not all Houston’s absence, as they’ve had a tougher schedule, but they also held Denver (27) to their 2nd lowest point total of the season in Denver when Houston was healthy. Without him, they surrendered 35 to them at home. They also surrendered 31 to Oakland, without him, a total they didn’t surrender to anyone with him. He was playing like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate before he got hurt, so having him back in the lineup, provided he’s 100%, is going to be huge.

In spite of that, Indianapolis is actually the side I’m going with, if I had to, gun to my head (or for a pick ‘em/against the spread pool) for 3 reasons. I already mentioned Kansas City’s issues against good teams this season. The 2nd reason is that Kansas City is a public underdog. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and that works as a good tiebreaker. I especially love fading public underdogs because, whenever the public thinks there will be an upset, it usually doesn’t happen. The 3rd reason is just that Indianapolis happens to be hot right now. Sure we’ve seen them go cold off of a hot streak before and vice versa, but it’s worth mentioning. As long as this line is under a field goal, Indianapolis is the pick. I might take Kansas City with the field goal though. It’s that close.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -2

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 NFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Wild Card Picks, Eagles, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

At first glance, this line, which favors Philadelphia by 2.5 points, seems off. The Saints had a fantastic regular season on the whole, moving the chains at a 76.98% rate, as opposed to 68.85% for their opponents, a differential of 8.13% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Philadelphia, meanwhile, comes in at 12th, moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, but allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.10% rate, a differential of 1.80%. That suggests that New Orleans should be the ones favored and by 3.5 points.

However, we need to delve a little deeper, as that 74.91% number takes into account games in which Michael Vick and/or Matt Barkley saw significant snaps. If you only take into account the 9 games which Nick Foles started and finished (in which they went 8-1, as opposed to 2-5 in their other 7 games), they move the chains at an absurd 78.69% rate, which would be 2nd best in the NFL behind Denver if they were season long numbers. Even with a defense that will allow you to move the chains with some ease, that’s still a differential of 5.58%, which would be 6th in the NFL over a full season. New Orleans still ranks higher, but at least now we have a line that should be a pick ‘em, based blindly on rate of moving the chains.

That still suggests New Orleans is the right side, but we have to take into account the Saints’ road issues. While the Saints are either 7-0-1 or 7-1 at home (depending on what line you had for the 49ers game), they are 1-7 ATS on the road and 3-5 straight up, including losses to St. Louis and the Jets and a blowout loss in Seattle. This is nothing new for them, as Drew Brees’ QB rating is usually about 10-15 points lower on the road than at home. He also doesn’t have a road playoff win in his career and the Saints don’t have one in franchise history. Since 2008, excluding the 2012 season when Sean Payton didn’t coach, the Saints are 31-10 ATS at home and 17-25 ATS on the road.

I am actually 15-1 ATS picking Saints games this year and it would be 15-0-1 if I had gotten -3 in the 49ers game and not -3.5, in an eventual New Orleans win by 3. I’ve done this by blindly picking them at home and almost blindly picking against them on the road, only picking them in Chicago as 1 point favorites because I correctly believed the Bears to be overrated at that point. I don’t have a ton of confidence because the Saints are a very good team and because this is Nick Foles’ first playoff game and Rob Ryan will have something good planned for him, but as long as this line is under 3, I’m sticking with what got me here and fading the Saints on the road. It’s also worth noting that playoff teams who have a better record than their opponent, but are underdogs are 6-15 ATS since 2001. They’re usually underdogs for a reason.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2.5

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 AFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Wild Card Picks, Bengals, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)

The Chargers kind of tripped backwards into the playoffs. That sounds weird to say about a team that had to win 4 straight games, including one in Denver, just to get to this point, but they could have easily lost to Kansas City’s backups week 17. The Chiefs were up 24-14 late. A penalty that would have given Kansas City’s a 36 yard field goal attempt to win it wasn’t called. And in overtime the Chargers very nearly fumbled a fake punt deep in their own territory.

That being said, they aren’t undeserving of being in the playoffs. Every year, there seems to be at least one playoff team that clearly doesn’t belong, but there are no teams in this year’s bunch where you can definitely make an argument that they aren’t a top-12 team. San Diego is probably the worst of this year’s bunch, but they definitely can be dangerous. We’ve already seen them win 5 games against other playoff teams, something no other playoff team can say. Sure, one of the wins was against Kansas City’s backups and another was against the Michael Vick led Eagles, but they still legitimately beat Denver, Indianapolis, and Kansas City (the first time around).

They have an amazing offense that can play keep away from anyone in the NFL (as they did to perfection against Indianapolis and Denver) and that can also win a shootout (as they did in the first Kansas City matchup. They move the chains at a 78.26% rate, which is 2nd best in the NFL behind only Denver. They have a terrible defense, probably the worst in the playoffs, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 75.36% rate. That allows their opponents to play keep away and win shootouts, part of why they’ve also lost to Washington, Houston, and Oakland. However, their 2.90% rate of moving the chains differential is 10th in the NFL, well in that top-12.

Unfortunately, they have a very tough matchup here. Cincinnati is quietly one of the most complete, if not the most complete team in the post-season. Andy Dalton has flopped in his first 2 playoff games, but he was also 1-11 against eventual playoff teams in his first 2 years in the NFL. This year, he’s 4-0, in part because he’s playing better, but also in part because of how well his supporting cast is playing on both sides of the ball. They move the chains at a 73.49% rate, as opposed to 65.68% for their opponents, which is the lowest rate against in the NFL. That’s a differential of 7.81%, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 8, instead of 7.

That’s not a ton of line value, but that’s before we even get into Cincinnati’s home dominance. They are the only team in the NFL that has not only won, but covered in all 8 of their home games this season. Not only that, their margin of victory in those 8 games is 17.62 points per game. That includes wins over New England, Indianapolis, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. Only one of their home games was within a touchdown (Green Bay).

They’re not nearly the same team on the road, where they are 3-5 with no wins by more than a touchdown, which will hold them back. They could maybe win in New England, but their chances of going into Denver and winning given their track record on the road is pretty low. However, they have a very good chance to get a blowout victory here. The one road win the Bengals have by a touchdown this season was in San Diego, where they won 17-10 a few weeks ago. If they can win by a touchdown in San Diego, I like their chances of winning at home against the Chargers by more than a touchdown a lot, especially since the Chargers will be a West Coast team playing in the Eastern Time Zone at 1 PM ET.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: 2013 NFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Wild Card Picks, 49ers, Packers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

Aaron Rodgers is back for the Packers and that obviously makes a big difference. He started out a little shaky against Chicago, understandable because he missed almost 2 months with injury, throwing 2 early picks, but bounced back to finish 25 of 39 for 318 yards with 2 touchdowns. With another week of practice with the first team and a full game under his belt, Rodgers will only be sharper this week.

With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Eddie Lacy, and a now healthy Randall Cobb making plays on offense with actually a very decent offensive line, the Packers are near impossible to stop offensively. Because of Lacy’s emergence, this might be the best offensive supporting cast Rodgers has ever had. On the season, in the 8 games Rodgers has started and finished, the Packers moved the chains at a 77.78% rate. Even when Rodgers was out of the lineup, the Packers had a decent offense because of all the supporting talent, moving the chains at an above average 72.33% rate, but with Rodgers back the offense is simply on another level. Only Denver and San Diego move the chains at a higher rate than that aforementioned 77.78% rate on the season.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has always played well against the 49ers since Jim Harbaugh took over the 49ers in 2011, even though the 49ers have consistently had one of the NFL’s top defenses. In 3 games, he’s completed 77 of 122 (63.1%), 893 yards (7.36 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The 49ers once again have a very strong defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 67.24% rate, but once again they should only be able to slow down Rodgers and the Packers, not stop them.

However, the 49ers have won the last 3 matchups because they’ve been able to move the ball at will on the Packers’ defense. Defense is once again an issue for the Packers, as they are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74.60% rate and are without top player Clay Matthews. However, the 49ers’ offense has been inconsistent this year, moving the chains at a below average 70.35% rate. A few weeks ago, everyone expected them to move the ball all over an even worse Falcons’ defense at home in San Francisco and they disappointed. They could have a good game here, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion.

The 49ers have a rate of moving the chains differential of 3.11%, which is very solid, 9th in the NFL, but the Packers are right in that same area if you take that aforementioned 77.78% rate for their offense, with a differential of 3.17%. That suggests these two teams are roughly even, which I think is very reasonable. They played a close game week 1 that could have gone either way, depending on a call or two by the referees, and that was in San Francisco. The 49ers are 12-4 and the Packers are 6-2 with Rodgers. I think if you played 100 games between these two teams as they are currently constructed on a neutral field, we’d see a fairly even split with one team winning 50-55 of them.

In spite of that, the Packers are getting a field goal at home, which suggests that the 49ers are 6 points better, which doesn’t make sense to me, so getting that field goal with the Packers seems awfully attractive. The Packers have also been incredible at home over the past few years, as long as Aaron Rodgers has been under center. Rodgers is 21-8 ATS at home since 2010 and 26-3 straight up, with an absurd +412 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.21 points per game. This also happens to be the first time Rodgers has been a home underdog since week 10 of 2009, an upset win over the Cowboys. For what it’s worth, Aaron Rodgers is 2-1 ATS and straight up as a home underdog in his career as a starter.

Yet still, the public is all over the 49ers, as the biggest public lean of the week is on San Francisco. The public always loses money in the long run, so I like to go against them whenever it makes sense, which it definitely does this week. I understand why the public is all over the 49ers, given that they’ve beaten the Packers in 3 straight matchups and only need to win by a field goal or more. The public seems to think they have the Packers’ number.

I don’t buy that though, because there’s nothing to really support the common narrative that some teams just have another team’s number. Since 1989, teams are 303-326 ATS against teams that they have beaten and covered against in 3+ straight matchups. If you shrink the sample size down to teams that are meeting for the 4th time in 2 seasons, that record is 81-90 ATS.

If you shrink it even further to non-divisional foes, there’s only one instance in the last 25 years of a team even having a chance to win and cover against a non-divisional opponent for the 4th time in 2 years. The Eagles and the Buccaneers met in Philadelphia in the 2002 NFC Championship after the Eagles had beaten the Buccaneers by scores of 17-13, 31-9, and 20-10 over the past 2 seasons. The Buccaneers came in as 3.5 point underdogs against an Eagles team that “had their number”, but ended up winning 27-10 and advanced to the Super Bowl, where they eventually won.

That’s just one case study and even those other numbers alone aren’t enough to take the 49ers, but it certainly doesn’t provide any evidence that teams can “have another team’s number” and that would seem to be the primary reason why the public is on San Francisco. Even in matchups where teams are completely coin flip evenly matched up, there’s a 1 and 8 chance that one team will beat the other 3 straight times. This seems like a trap line and the public is falling for it. I’m taking the field goal with a dominant home team in an even matchup.

Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 27 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Texans, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

When the Texans went 12-4 in 2012, they did it on the strength of a 5-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, an easy schedule, and a +12 turnover margin, powered by a 64.10% fumble recovery rate, so it was predictable that the Texans would regress, even with Brian Cushing coming back from injury. That being said, I don’t think anyone saw this coming as the Texans lost their last 14 games to finish 2-14 and will have the 1st overall pick in the 2014 draft.

Fortunately for the Texans, they’re in a much better position than most teams that get the #1 pick. They were competitive in almost every game this season, up until Gary Kubiak was fired after week 14, as the Texans had a 2-9 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. That includes losses by 3 points or fewer against eventual playoff teams in Indianapolis, New England, Kansas City and an eventual 10-win Arizona team. That was in spite of a -20 turnover margin, in part because of a 44.44% fumble recovery margin.

The Texans’ defense actually played very well this season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a mere 69.40% rate, despite losing two starters (Brian Cushing and Danieal Manning) for the season fairly early in the year. The offense’s ineptitude and tendency to turn the ball over and allow defensive touchdowns made them look worse than they were. The Texans have a golden opportunity to take a franchise quarterback at the top of the draft, which will go a long way towards helping the offense, clearly their weaker side of the ball. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they followed in the footsteps of the Colts and Chiefs and became the 3rd straight team to make the playoffs the year after getting the #1 pick. The Texans are in talks as we speak to hire hot head coaching candidate Bill O’Brien.

Positional Needs

Quarterback

This one is pretty straight forward. The Texans can save 4 million in cap space (not to mention a ton of cash) by cutting Matt Schaub ahead of his 1 million dollar roster bonus in March, while Case Keenum as the look of a decent backup long-term at best. He did some nice things in his first few starts, but eventually proved why he went undrafted in the first place. TJ Yates, meanwhile, had a small cameo in mop-up duty for Schaub, completing 15 of 22 for 113 yards and 2 interceptions, and was never seen again, despite the team having nothing to lose by playing him. That doesn’t bode well for the future of one of the most unlikely men in NFL history to have won a playoff game. Teams that feel they need a quarterback picking #1 almost always take one so expect Teddy Bridgewater, or whoever is the top quarterback come draft time, to be a Texan in 2013.

Outside Linebacker

This somewhat depends on what scheme they run in 2014, but if they stick with a 3-4 they need more rush linebacker help and either way they desperately need edge rusher help. Despite having JJ Watt in front of them tying up blockers, Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus graded out dead last among eligible 3-4 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Mercilus looks like a bust of a 2012 1st round pick (though it’s too early to make that claim definitely), while Reed would probably be best in a non-rush linebacker position, either playing outside linebacker in a 4-3 or inside linebacker in a 3-4, which are both also needs. In a 4-3, Mercilus will probably still be a starter and given another chance at his natural position of 4-3 end and Watt would probably line up outside in base sets, but they’d need someone to rush the passer from the edge on passing downs, as Watt would almost definitely move inside.

Middle Linebacker

You can change this to middle linebacker/outside linebacker if the Texans go to a 4-3. Brian Cushing is their only proven non-rush linebacker and he’s suffered serious leg injuries in back-to-back seasons. Brooks Reed is another option if they bring in a strong edge rusher, but he’s unproven and might only be a two-down player as he’s kind of shaky in coverage. Daryl Sharpton and Joe Mays manned middle linebacker for the most part this season with Cushing gone and both were mediocre at best. They’re free agents anyway this off-season.

Guard

One of the positives of this season for the Texans has been the emergence of Brandon Brooks at right guard, as the 2012 3rd round pick had a very strong season. They need help at left guard though. Wade Smith is a free agent this off-season and he’s a declining player heading into his age 33 season. With Bill O’Brien likely to implement a power blocking scheme, Smith is highly unlikely to be back.

Offensive Tackle

Along with left guard, right tackle was a big problem position for the Texans. Derek Newton was one of the worst starting offensive tackles in the league, as only 5 eligible offensive tackle graded out worse than him this season on Pro Football Focus. It’s time to give up on the 2011 7th round pick as a legitimate starter. 2013 3rd round pick Brennan Williams is an option, but he missed the entirety of his rookie year with injury and has a history of leg problems dating back to his time in college. The new coaching staff will probably want their own guy there.

Defensive End

Antonio Smith has been one of the best pass rushing 5-technique defensive ends over the past 3 years under Wade Phillips, but his future is up in the air going into free agency with the Texans’ coaching staff for 2014 yet to be decided. It doesn’t help that Smith will be in his age 33 season in 2014. If Smith isn’t back with the Texans, they’ll need to replace him. 2012 4th round pick Jared Crick has been decent in limited action thus far in his career and could be an option, but I doubt they’d want him to be their only starting option going in 2014.

Tight End

Owen Daniels will be owed 4.5 million in an age 32 contract year coming off of a broken leg so he could easily be cut. The duo of Garrett Graham and rookie Ryan Griffin was fine at tight end this season, but Graham too is a free agent and the new coaching staff might want to add a tight end who is more of a power blocker than the finesse tight ends Kubiak liked.

Cornerback

Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson are fine as the starting cornerbacks, but they really need to add a better 3rd cornerback. They can’t keep trotting out Brice McCain to play half the snaps after he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ dead last ranked cornerback in 2013, despite his part-time role. He allowed opponents to have a 105.1 QB rating when throwing on him and was by far dead last in coverage grade by a cornerback.

Nose Tackle

If the Texans stick with a 3-4, they might want a more traditional nose tackle with Earl Mitchell set to hit free agency. If they move to a 4-3, defensive tackle becomes a bigger need. JJ Watt would probably play outside in base packages and move inside on passing downs so they’d need to find two new base defensive tackles. Mitchell could be one of them, if brought back, and Jared Crick could be another, but it’s still an area they could try to add more talent.

Key Free Agents

DE Antonio Smith

Antonio Smith really emerged as a great pass rushing 5-technique for the Texans under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Undersized at 6-3 277, Smith never really found a niche in the NFL before Phillips, but in the past 3 seasons he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked pass rushing 3-4 defensive end twice (2011 and 2012) and 5th ranked once (2013). He may just be a system guy though and who knows where Phillips is going to be in 2014. He’s also heading into his age 33 season. He could be back with the Texans, but that would depends heavily on what scheme they implement and wherever he signs, he’s not getting a long-term deal or a lot of money.

RB Ben Tate

Ben Tate was drafted in the 2nd round in 2010 by the Texans to be the starting running back, but broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Ben Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury.

Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.3 yards per carry on 181 carries. Tate clearly has the talent and toughness to be a lead back in the NFL, but he’s also missed 24 of 64 possible regular season games in his career thus far and is coming off of an injury plagued season. The running back position is becoming devalued because of their short career spans and injury proneness, so Tate could have a hard time finding a ton of guaranteed money on the open market on a deal that will take him into his late 20s. He’ll already be in his age 26 season in 2014.

G Wade Smith

There was a time when Wade Smith was one of the best guards in the NFL, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked guard for the 2010 season, but it’s been downhill since there, culminating in arguably the worst season of his Houston tenure in 2013, as he ranked 60th out of 81 eligible guards. Age is likely the culprit and going into his age 33 season, with Gary Kubiak and his zone blocking scheme gone, Smith is highly unlikely to be back as a starter in Houston this off-season and he may have a hard time finding starting work anywhere. He’ll likely be looking at one year deals.

DT Earl Mitchell

Undersized for the nose tackle position at 6-2 296, Mitchell, a 2010 3rd round pick, has been a favorite of Wade Phillips since he arrived as the defensive coordinator before the 2011 season. That makes sense as Phillips prefers smaller than traditional nose tackles, having success with Jay Ratliff in Dallas in his previous stop. Mitchell has been a starter ever since, playing about half the snaps, but he’s been pretty mediocre. I’d like to see him get a shot at his natural position in a 4-3 this season. He’ll probably be looking at heavy rotational work and a short-term deal worth a couple of million dollars.

FB Greg Jones

Greg Jones was one of the top fullbacks in the game in Jacksonville, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 1st ranked fullback in 2010 and 3rd ranked in 2011, but he’s not quite the same player he once was. Still, he had a solid year and was a welcome addition to Houston’s running game, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked fullback and proving to be a significant upgrade as a point of attack blocker over his predecessor James Casey. That being said, the market for soon-to-be 33 year old fullbacks is not very big so he’ll probably be looking at one year deals again this off-season.

TE Garrett Graham

Former head coach Gary Kubiak loved his tight ends and took Garrett Graham in the 4th round in 2010. Graham had to work his way up with a bunch of tight ends above him, but managed to get all the way up to the 1st string in 2013 after starter Owen Daniels went on injured reserve. He didn’t do a ton with the opportunity, catching 49 passes for 545 yards and 5 touchdowns in 14 games, including 11 starts, averaging 1.30 yards per route run, in the bottom third of the league. He’s a decent blocker even at 6-3 243 so he’ll probably be at the top of lists for teams who need #2 tight ends this off-season and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he was back in Houston.

Cap Casualty Candidates

QB Matt Schaub

Matt Schaub did his best Jake Delhomme impression this season, completing 61.2% of his passes for an average of 6.45 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, getting benched on several occasions for 2012 undrafted free agent Case Keenum. Fortunately, the Texans structured the 4-year extension they gave him at the start of the 2012 season well and can cut him this off-season, save 4 million on the cap, and have his contract completely off the books for the future. He’s as good as gone.

TE Owen Daniels

Owen Daniels was a favorite of Gary Kubiak, but Kubiak is gone now. Daniels is heading into an age 32 contract year coming off of a broken leg and the Texans can save 4.5 million in cash and off the cap by cutting him.

S Danieal Manning

Manning is in almost the exact same situation as Daniels. He’ll be in an age 32 contract year in 2014, coming off of a broken leg and the Texans can save 4.5 million in cash off the cap by cutting him. He’s been a solid starter in the past, but the Texans seem to be going into a complete rebuild so he could be gone. Shiloh Keo and DJ Swearinger are youngsters who were decent this season.

CB Brice McCain

The Texans would only save 850K in cap space by cutting McCain, but they’d save 3 million in cash over the next 2 seasons and it’s more about getting him off their roster. He was atrocious in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ lowest ranked cornerback despite a part-time role.

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Jacksonville Jaguars re-sign DT Sen’Derrick Marks

stevenlourie Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars re-sign DT Sen’Derrick Marks

Sen’Derrick Marks has had a solid season this year. New Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley seems to have coached up the former 2nd round pick, much like he did with many players when he was the defensive coordinator in Seattle. Marks excelled as a pass rusher, generating 4 sacks, 12 hits, and 24 hurried throws on 525 pass rush snaps, while batting 7 passes at the line of scrimmage. That was good enough for him to grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked pass rushing defensive tackle and even though he got noticeably washed against the run, he still graded out above average on the season.

However, this kind of money, 4 years, 22 million with 8 million of that guaranteed, is an overpay. His play this year wasn’t worth a 5.5 million dollar a year salary and that’s before you take into account that he was one of the worst defensive tackles in the league who had a consistent role from 2010-2012. He was a bottom-15 defensive tackle in 2012 and bottom-10 in 2010 and 2011. There’s a reason all he could get was a one year deal worth 1.5 million last off-season. He’s the definition of a one year wonder and the Jaguars are definitely buying high. I think this is just a case of a team overpaying for their own talent. I don’t know who on the open market was going to pay Marks this kind of money. I don’t doubt he could continue being a solid contributor under Bradley’s tutelage, but he’s not worth this money and they probably could have gotten him cheaper.

Grade: C+

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2013 Week 17 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Wild Card Picks, Uncategorized

Week 17

Straight Up: 12-4

Against the Spread: 7-9

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 2-0

Medium Confidence: 1-2

Low Confidence: 1-2

No Confidence: 2-5

Upset Picks: 0-3

2013

Straight Up: 173-82-1 (.678)

Against the Spread: 146-103-7 (.586)

Pick of the Week: 10-6-1

High Confidence: 24-8

Medium Confidence: 32-25

Low Confidence: 39-26-2

No Confidence: 41-38-4

Upset Picks: 27-28

Pre-season Prop Bets: 8-3