Rate of Moving the Chains – Wild Card Round

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Wild Card Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Denver 435 71 65 26 1 26 81.09%
2 San Diego 373 41 56 21 1 37 78.26%
3 New Orleans 359 49 61 19 10 32 76.98%
4 Chicago 344 45 68 23 5 29 75.68%
5 Green Bay 351 42 64 25 4 37 75.14%
6 Carolina 319 38 70 19 3 27 75.00%
7 Philadelphia 355 51 82 19 7 28 74.91%
8 New England 378 44 77 20 8 41 74.30%
9 Dallas 325 45 77 20 2 30 74.15%
10 Detroit 350 44 72 34 9 24 73.92%
11 Atlanta 330 37 68 28 8 27 73.69%
12 Cincinnati 330 47 75 30 9 22 73.49%
13 Seattle 307 41 74 19 5 35 72.35%
14 Indianapolis 318 38 76 14 7 40 72.21%
15 Kansas City 323 41 88 18 7 28 72.08%
16 Pittsburgh 312 37 75 24 6 32 71.81%
17 Tennessee 311 38 78 25 6 29 71.66%
18 Arizona 329 36 78 31 4 36 71.01%
19 Minnesota 309 41 75 32 9 30 70.56%
20 San Francisco 286 39 79 18 4 36 70.35%
21 Washington 329 34 84 34 14 26 69.67%
22 St. Louis 282 32 78 29 12 28 68.11%
23 Cleveland 301 30 85 29 17 26 67.83%
24 Oakland 275 33 84 31 5 30 67.25%
25 Houston 307 26 88 31 11 35 66.87%
26 Miami 278 32 85 26 9 34 66.81%
27 Tampa Bay 269 28 87 21 14 29 66.29%
28 Buffalo 301 31 96 27 10 36 66.27%
29 NY Jets 280 25 88 29 7 36 65.59%
30 Baltimore 295 26 90 29 10 41 65.38%
31 NY Giants 280 29 91 44 6 26 64.92%
32 Jacksonville 271 23 95 27 17 25 64.19%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Cincinnati 282 28 89 31 11 31 65.68%
2 Baltimore 284 32 98 24 6 35 65.97%
3 Seattle 282 20 81 39 7 27 66.23%
4 San Francisco 284 30 85 30 13 25 67.24%
5 Carolina 278 21 72 30 8 34 67.49%
6 Buffalo 308 38 94 30 6 36 67.58%
7 Kansas City 303 34 87 36 9 28 67.81%
8 Arizona 309 34 88 30 10 32 68.19%
9 Detroit 290 34 84 22 3 40 68.50%
10 New Orleans 274 31 83 19 8 28 68.85%
11 Houston 282 40 91 11 5 35 69.40%
12 NY Jets 293 35 80 15 11 37 69.64%
13 NY Giants 327 33 86 29 11 30 69.77%
14 Miami 327 31 77 24 7 40 70.75%
15 Pittsburgh 303 39 79 20 11 31 70.81%
16 New England 338 36 80 29 17 27 70.97%
17 Indianapolis 319 35 75 27 9 30 71.52%
18 Cleveland 328 42 88 21 5 32 71.71%
19 Tennessee 329 36 76 25 4 39 71.71%
20 Denver 339 44 87 26 11 26 71.86%
21 Tampa Bay 324 40 66 31 6 32 72.95%
22 Philadelphia 368 37 74 31 12 32 73.10%
23 St. Louis 337 39 74 29 7 26 73.44%
24 Washington 329 52 74 26 5 25 74.56%
25 Green Bay 330 46 69 22 7 30 74.60%
26 Oakland 330 48 74 22 4 28 74.70%
27 Atlanta 326 45 62 21 4 35 75.25%
28 San Diego 327 37 65 17 7 30 75.36%
29 Jacksonville 353 49 75 21 3 29 75.85%
30 Minnesota 368 51 77 20 7 29 75.91%
31 Chicago 353 47 58 28 4 30 76.92%
32 Dallas 388 50 61 27 9 29 77.66%

 

Differential

Team
1 Denver 9.23%
2 New Orleans 8.13%
3 Cincinnati 7.81%
4 Carolina 7.51%
5 Seattle 6.12%
6 Detroit 5.42%
7 Kansas City 4.27%
8 New England 3.33%
9 San Francisco 3.11%
10 San Diego 2.90%
11 Arizona 2.82%
12 Philadelphia 1.80%
13 Pittsburgh 1.00%
14 Indianapolis 0.70%
15 Green Bay 0.54%
16 Tennessee -0.05%
17 Baltimore -0.59%
18 Chicago -1.24%
19 Buffalo -1.31%
20 Atlanta -1.56%
21 Houston -2.53%
22 Dallas -3.51%
23 Cleveland -3.88%
24 Miami -3.94%
25 NY Jets -4.05%
26 NY Giants -4.85%
27 Washington -4.89%
28 St. Louis -5.32%
29 Minnesota -5.34%
30 Tampa Bay -6.65%
31 Oakland -7.45%
32 Jacksonville -11.66%

 

Projected Wild Card Lines

CIN/SD 7.91
GB/SF 0.43
NO/PHI 3.33
KC/IND 0.58

 

Two playoff teams, Green Bay and Philadelphia, haven’t had their current starting quarterback for all 16 games, for different reasons. For handicapping purposes, I’ve calculated their offensive rate of moving the chains in games in which Aaron Rodgers and Nick Foles respectively started and finished the game. The results are, unsurprisingly, a significant difference. In fact, those rate of moving the chains would be 4th (Green Bay) and 2nd (Philadelphia) over the course of a full season. I could have done the same thing for Kansas City, subtracting out their week 17 results, but they actually played so well even with their backups that it didn’t change much. Before week 17, they are at 4.37% in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. Now they are at 4.27%.

Green Bay 186 24 26 11 2 21 77.78%
Philadelphia 203 37 44 6 4 11 78.69%

 

If we subtract their rate of moving the chains allowed from those, Green Bay would be at 3.17%, which would be good for 10th in the NFL, and Philadelphia would be at 5.58%, good for 6th in the NFL. If we have these adjusted differentials, all 12 playoff teams would be in the top-15 with positive differential, which is great because it means there aren’t any truly undeserving playoff teams (Chicago, Dallas, and Miami all had a chance to be). Below are the 2013 playoff teams in order of rate of moving the chains differential, with Green Bay’s, Philadelphia’s, and Kansas City’s adjusted differentials.

Team
1 Denver 9.23%
2 New Orleans 8.13%
3 Cincinnati 7.81%
4 Carolina 7.51%
5 Seattle 6.12%
6 Philadelphia 5.58%
7 Kansas City 4.37%
8 New England 3.33%
9 Green Bay 3.17%
10 San Francisco 3.11%
11 San Diego 2.90%
12 Indianapolis 0.70%

 

The other 3 non-playoff teams in the top-15 are Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Detroit, who all have a good chance to make the playoffs in 2014. Below are the projected wild card round line adjusted for these new adjusted rate of moving the chains differentials. I’ve also adjusted it for Kansas City’s pre-week 17 differential, but it didn’t make much of a difference.

CIN/SD 7.91
GB/SF 3.07
PHI/NO 0.45
KC/IND 0.67

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2013 NFL Prop Bets

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs +250

I didn’t really see any value with over 7.5 (-175) on the Chiefs, but I thought it was a little strange their odds to make the playoffs were this high. The odds makers seen fairly certain they’ll win 7 and probably 8 games, but the AFC sucks. 9 wins can get you into the playoffs. The Chiefs have legitimate talent around the quarterback and the Alex Smith/Andy Reid combination should stabilize their Head Coaching situation, their quarterback situation, and their league worst turnover margin. Add in a last place schedule in arguably the easiest division in football in by far the easier of the two conferences and I think this is a playoff team. One team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs every year.

12/30/13: The Chiefs rode one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and a turnover margin that not only stabilized, but went all the way up to +18, one of the best in the NFL. They won 11 games and got the AFC’s 5th seed.

Minnesota Vikings under 7 wins -125

One team also does the opposite and I think the Vikings are the team to do it this year. They weren’t actually far from being one of the 3 worst teams in the NFC last year according to DVOA. DVOA had them as the 9th best team in the NFC, making the playoffs because of a 5-1 record in close games, and there wasn’t much distance between them and the 14th ranked team in the NFC. Give them a tougher schedule, an even more improved conference, more injuries (2nd fewest in the league last year), and a more human season from Adrian Peterson and I think they’re below than 5 wins threshold. This bet gives me 2 games of buffer.

12/30/13: The Vikings did go from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Adrian Peterson had a very good year, but he didn’t come close to setting any records and the rotating carousel of Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, and Josh Freeman at quarterback couldn’t find stability. Their aging defense saw more injuries and was one of the worst in the NFL.

Carolina Panthers to win NFC South +350, to make playoffs +220, and over 7.5 wins -140

There’s also a team that goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye every year. I think that’s the Panthers, who finished last year 6-3 with wins over Washington, Atlanta, and in New Orleans. Their defense surrendered just 21.2 points per game in the final 12 games of last season, after they moved Luke Kuechly to middle linebacker, despite playing 8 top-16 scoring offenses in that stretch. Now they add Star Lotulelei, Kawaan Short, and return Jon Beason. Offensively, they scored 26.0 points per game in the final 8 games of the season as Cam Newton shook off his early season sophomore slump. That’s no fluke as they scored 25.4 points per game in 2011. Going into his 3rd year in the league, I expect the best season of his career from Newton. They could possibly have a top-10 offense and defense.

12/30/13: Had this one perfectly, as the Panthers went 12-4, won the NFC South, and got the 2nd seed in the NFC, as I projected them to before the season. After Cam Newton started 2-12 in his career in games decided by a touchdown or less, he went 5-2 in such games this year. In the beginning of his career, he “didn’t know how to win.” Now he “wills his team to victory.” It’s an insufferable narrative 180. Defensively, Luke Kuechly and Greg Hardy were among the best in the NFL at their positions, Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short had strong rookie years, and Thomas Davis’ return (not Jon Beason’s) helped their linebacking corps tremendously. Their makeshift secondary also held up very well, thanks to the performances of Melvin White, Captain Munnerlyn, Drayton Florence, Mike Mitchell, and Quintin Mikell, on one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens to make playoffs +130, over 8.5 wins -125

Their demise has been greatly exaggerated. Sure, they didn’t look good week 1, but I don’t think there were many teams that could beat Peyton Manning when he was playing like that. It’s important not to over-react, which naturally everyone is doing with the 3 day layover. For that reason, I wish I made these bets after week 1, but I still like both of these bets.

12/30/13: Came close on the 8.5 win one, but lost both of these. The defense actually ended up being much better than I thought, shaking off that 49 point performance week 1 (not the first time Manning would torch a defense), but the offense was close to the worst in the NFL. Joe Flacco’s regressed big time statistically, but it wasn’t all his fault. Torrey Smith was their only receiver to provide Flacco with a consistent target, Ray Rice struggled mightily through a hip injury, and the offensive line fell apart as Michael Oher flopped in his contract year, Kelechi Osemele got hurt, and first time starter Gino Gradkowski was horrible.

Atlanta Falcons to miss playoffs +160

A lot of good teams for not a lot of playoff spots in the NFC. One team always goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs and the Falcons are by far the most likely to do so this season. 10 wins might not be enough for a playoff spot in the NFC. The average 13 win team wins 9.5 games the following season and, in 2012, the Falcons benefitted from a 7-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, an unsustainably high fumble recovery rate and turnover margin, and a schedule that featured just 2 eventual playoff teams. They also return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength is continuity and they lost their top pass rusher John Abraham.

12/30/13: They did this and then some, finishing 4-12. Two things that had been historically friendly to the Falcons in the Mike Smith era, close games and turnovers, did not go in their favor this season and they also had a ton of injuries, particularly on an aging defense that saw veterans Asante Samuel and Osi Umenyiora both get benched by the end of the season.

New England Patriots over 11 wins +130

The AFC East should give them 5 wins at the very least. They’d only need to go 6-4 in their only 10 games to at least push this bet and I think they have a much better chance at 12 wins than 10. A lot has been made about what they’ve lost in the receiving corps, but before 2007, they had 5 different leading receivers in 7 years and only Moss, who came over from a 4th round pick, ever did anything before or after leaving New England. Aaron Hernandez is also gone, but Brady somehow played better without him last season, which just solidifies my point that receivers don’t really matter to him. The offensive line is still one of the best in the league and they’ll still be able to run the ball. Defensively, their young squad played well to end last season and may have finally matured.

12/30/13: This wasn’t as automatic as I thought, but the Patriots pulled out their 8th 12 win season in the past 13 seasons, a remarkable feat. They had a lot of luck in close games, but lucky is not a good way to describe the 2013 Patriots given how many injuries they suffered.

Oakland Raiders under 5 wins -165

I hate taking publicly bet sides and paying huge juice, but the Raiders are terrible. They’re going to have a hard time winning the 4 games they won last year, let alone winning the 6 that would lose this bet for me. They have 50+ million in dead money on their cap and of their top-10 cap numbers, 6 are dead money guys, 1 is a kicker, and one is a backup quarterback. They lost arguably their top best defensive players in Philip Wheeler and Desmond Bryant, as well as starting defensive back Michael Huff, and leading receiver Brandon Myers, while top offensive player, left tackle Jared Veldheer, is expected to miss 10-12 games with a torn triceps.

12/30/13: This was another one I had to sweat out as the scrappy Raiders started 4-5, but they eventually fell back down to earth and lost their final 7 games.

Indianapolis Colts under 8.5 wins -110

They won just 2 came by more than double digits last season and beat just 3 teams that finished with 8 or more wins. If they want to come close to 11 wins again, they’ll have to play much, much better than they did last season. A few solid off-season additions and a 2nd year Andrew Luck could do that, but this number is high enough that I’m comfortable making this play.

12/30/13: This is the other one I missed on. There were times that the Colts looked like their 2012 selves, barely beating Oakland, Houston (once), Tennessee (twice), losing to Miami and St. Louis, getting blown out by Cincinnati and Arizona, but they also beat Denver, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Seattle, blew out Jacksonville (twice), and Houston (once). They were probably the most unpredictable team in the NFL this season and they probably, overall, weren’t as good as their 11-5 record as they were helped out by a good record in close games again, but they were noticeably better than 2012 and could be very dangerous in the post-season if they get hot. Overall, I’m fine with going 8-3 on these 11 prop bets, especially since a lot of them had strong juices.

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2014 Pro-Bowl Thoughts

stevenlourie News, Uncategorized

Quarterback: Tom Brady, Patriots; Drew Brees, Saints; Peyton Manning, Broncos; Cam Newton, Panthers; Philip Rivers, Chargers; Russell Wilson, Seahawks

Brady, Brees, Manning, Rivers, and Wilson will get no arguments from me. I voted for all 5 of them. I had Nick Foles over Cam Newton. I like Cam Newton. I thought the criticism he took early in his career was baseless, but there’s no way he had a better year than Nick Foles. I don’t think Newton has significantly improved from last year to this year. He was underrated last year. Now he might be overrated. Of course, Foles didn’t make it onto the ballot until late November because he wasn’t a week 1 starter, so you can’t blame the public for not voting him in.

Wide receiver: Antonio Brown, Steelers; Dez Bryant, Cowboys; Josh Gordon, Browns; A.J. Green, Bengals; Andre Johnson, Texans; Calvin Johnson, Lions; Brandon Marshall, Bears; Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

Wide receiver might have been the toughest position for me to pick as there were at least 12 guys I thought were deserving for 8 spots. Actually 6 of the guys I voted for made it, with only Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson getting left out. I didn’t vote for Demaryius Thomas, but you can’t argue he doesn’t deserve this. The only one I have a slight issue with is Dez Bryant. He wasn’t one of the 12 or so guys I was choosing from. He definitely had a good year, but Jackson and Jeffery would have been better options.

Tackle: Branden Albert, Chiefs; Jason Peters, Eagles; Tyron Smith, Cowboys; Joe Staley, 49ers; Joe Thomas, Browns; Trent Williams, Redskins

Staley, Thomas, and Williams were guys I voted for. Jason Peters and Tyron Smith definitely got strong consideration from me. The only one that’s kind of weird is Branden Albert. He’s not having a bad year or anything, but I think Jordan Gross and Andrew Whitworth have definitely been better players this season.

Guard: Jahri Evans, Saints; Ben Grubbs, Saints; Mike Iupati, 49ers; Logan Mankins, Patriots; Louis Vasquez, Broncos; Marshal Yanda, Ravens

Louis Vasquez and Ben Grubbs were guys I voted for. The rest is a little off, but it consists mostly of guys who have been really good in the past, but just aren’t having as good of seasons this year. The only one that’s glaringly bad is Mike Iupati, who is having a very average season, struggling through injuries. Josh Sitton and Evan Mathis are easily the best guards in the NFL this season, in my opinion. They’re major snubs. Larry Warford is a big omission as well.

Center: Ryan Kalil, Panthers; Alex Mack, Browns; Mike Pouncey, Dolphins; Max Unger, Seahawks

Max Unger is another player who has been very average in an injury plagued season. He’s been better in the past through. Alex Mack and Mike Pouncey are both guys I voted for and Ryan Kalil gets no argument from me. Chris Myers should have been in this group, but it’s not a huge deal.

Tight end: Jordan Cameron, Browns; Vernon Davis, 49ers; Jimmy Graham, Saints; Julius Thomas, Broncos

He’s not definitely a top-4 tight end or anything, but how did Tony Gonzalez not get voted in? He played well enough and it’s weird to have the Pro-Bowl without him in his final season. I would have voted him over Jordan Cameron for that reason, but Cameron is hardly a bad choice. The other 3 are guys I voted for.

Running back: Jamaal Charles, Chiefs; Matt Forte, Bears; Frank Gore, 49ers; Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks; LeSean McCoy, Eagles; Adrian Peterson, Vikings

Charles, Lynch, McCoy, and Peterson all got my vote. Matt Forte was right on the border, so I’m not going to argue that. Frank Gore is a pretty weird choice, as he ranks close to last in elusive rating and only averages 2.1 yards per carry after contact. Eddie Lacy and DeMarco Murray were both better runners this season.

Fullback: Marcel Reece, Raiders; Mike Tolbert, Panthers

I had Anthony Sherman instead of Marcel Reece, but I’m not going to argue fullbacks. Reece has had a very good season once again.

Defensive end: Greg Hardy, Panthers; Cameron Jordan, Saints; Robert Quinn, Rams; Cameron Wake, Dolphins; J.J. Watt, Texans; Mario Williams, Bills

Jordan, Quinn, Wake, and Watt all got my vote. Greg Hardy was right on the border. Mario Williams has had a very solid season, but I just think there were better choices. Calais Campbell is the best player on one of the best defenses in the NFL in Arizona and has 10 sacks and 17 quarterback hits from the 5-technique defensive end spot. Mario Williams has 14 sacks and 7 hits, but he’s not nearly the run player Campbell is and he plays from an easier spot to get to the quarterback

Interior lineman: Gerald McCoy, Buccaneers; Haloti Ngata, Ravens; Dontari Poe, Chiefs; Justin Smith, 49ers; Ndamukong Suh, Lions; Kyle Williams, Bills

Gerald McCoy, Ndamukong Suh, and Kyle Williams were all very well deserved and got my vote. Dontari Poe didn’t have a bad year at all, but I feel like there were better choices. Damon Harrison from the Jets is the best nose tackle in the NFL this season. Justin Smith and Haloti Ngata get in on name value. Jurrell Casey is the biggest snub among defensive tackles. Also, I voted in all 3 of the Jets’ defensive lineman, Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Damon Harrison and not one made it. I don’t get it. Why do people think the Jets are by far the best run stopping team in the NFL, allowing 3.3 YPC?

Outside linebacker: John Abraham, Cardinals; Ahmad Brooks, 49ers; Tamba Hali, Chiefs; Justin Houston, Chiefs; Robert Mathis, Colts; Terrell Suggs, Ravens

Jurrell Casey was a big snub, but Lavonte David was the biggest. He’s probably a top-5 DPOY candidate in my book and I’d argue he’s the best linebacker in the entire NFL, even over media darling Luke Kuechly. John Abraham and Terrell Suggs have had good seasons, but you can’t tell me they are better football players than Lavonte David. Ahmad Brooks is probably the weirdest pick. The San Francisco Bay Area is known for stuffing the ballots for all-star games and that’s really the only reason he’s going to Hawaii. The only one of these 6 I actually voted for was Robert Mathis, though I’m not going to argue Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Hali almost got my vote and Houston only didn’t get my vote because he was hurt. However, he would probably be a top-3 defensive player of the year candidate if he hadn’t gotten hurt and he’s still PFF’s #1 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker despite missing significant time. Thomas Davis, Brian Orakpo, and Elvis Dumervil are other big omissions.

Inside/middle linebacker: NaVorro Bowman, 49ers; Vontaze Burfict, Bengals; Luke Kuechly, Panthers; Patrick Willis, 49ers

I’m not going to argue anything here except how Vontaze Burfict got voted in as a middle linebacker when he was on the ballot as an outside linebacker and has played outside linebacker all season. All 4 of these guys got my vote, though Burfict did at outside linebacker. My middle 4th middle linebacker was Derrick Johnson, who is having a very good season. Stephen Tulloch and Karlos Dansby are also having very good seasons at a loaded middle linebacker position this year.

Cornerback: Brandon Flowers, Chiefs; Brent Grimes, Dolphins; Joe Haden, Browns; Patrick Peterson, Cardinals; Darrelle Revis, Buccaneers; Richard Sherman, Seahawks; Aqib Talib, Patriots; Alterraun Verner, Titans

Grimes, Peterson, Revis, Sherman, and Verner all got my vote. Joe Haden got strong consideration. Aqib Talib has been in and out of the lineup too much for my taste and I feel like he got voted in based on a strong start to the season. Brandon Flowers is having by far the worst season of this bunch. Oddly enough, he was a big snub last season, so I guess this balances out, but he’s one of PFF’s lowest ranked cornerbacks this season, allowing 66.7% completion and a 103.9 QB rating. Vontae Davis (50.6% completion and PFF’s highest coverage grade) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (NFL best 44.1% completion) were big omissions.

Free safety: Jairus Byrd, Bills; Earl Thomas, Seahawks; Eric Weddle, Chargers

I don’t understand why 3 free safeties and 3 strong safeties are going when we were only able to vote for 2, but okay. Thomas and Weddle both got my vote and Byrd only didn’t because he missed significant time. No arguments here, just confusion.

Strong safety: Eric Berry, Chiefs; Kam Chancellor, Seahawks; Troy Polamalu, Steelers

Devin McCourty, for my money, is the best safety in the game. PFF agrees. He was on the Pro-Bowl ballot as a strong safety even though he’s played the vast majority of the season at free safety, playing within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage on a league low 9.1% of snaps. He’s a big omission. Eric Berry got my vote and TJ Ward would have gotten my vote if I were allowed to vote for 3 or if I were allowed to vote McCourty at free safety, so he’s a snub. Kam Chancellor and Troy Polamalu are both having very good seasons though.

Top-15 snubs

1. Lavonte David (Tampa Bay)

2. Jurrell Casey (Tennessee)

3. Devin McCourty (New England)

4. Evan Mathis (Philadelphia)

5. Calais Campbell (Arizona)

6. Vontae Davis (Indianapolis)

7. Josh Sitton (Green Bay)

8. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Denver)

9. Jordan Gross (Carolina)

10. Damon Harrison (NY Jets)

11. Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati)

12. TJ Ward (Cleveland)

13. Brian Orakpo (Washington)

14. Larry Warford (Detroit)

15. Elvis Dumervil (Baltimore)

One note: I thought it was very interesting my top-15 snubs all play for different teams. No real pattern.

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2013 Pro Bowl Picks

stevenlourie News, Uncategorized

QB: Peyton Manning (Denver), Philip Rivers (San Diego), Drew Brees (New Orleans), Russell Wilson (Seattle), Tom Brady (New England), Nick Foles (Philadelphia)

RB: LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia), Jamaal Charles (Kansas City), Marshawn Lynch (Seattle), Adrian Peterson (Minnesota), Eddie Lacy (Green Bay), DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

WR: Calvin Johnson (Detroit), Andre Johnson (Houston), Josh Gordon (Cleveland), Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh), Brandon Marshall (Chicago), DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia), Alshon Jeffery (Chicago), AJ Green (Cincinnati)

FB: Anthony Sherman (Kansas City), Mike Tolbert (Carolina)

TE: Jimmy Graham (New Orleans), Vernon Davis (San Francisco), Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta), Julius Thomas (Denver)

OT: Joe Thomas (Cleveland), Trent Williams (Washington), Jordan Gross (Carolina), Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati), Joe Staley (San Francisco), Zach Strief (New Orleans)

G: Evan Mathis (Philadelphia), Josh Sitton (Green Bay), Louis Vasquez (Denver), Larry Warford (Detroit), Ben Grubbs (New Orleans), Matt Slauson (Chicago)

C: Alex Mack (Cleveland), Chris Myers (Houston), Manny Ramirez (Denver), Mike Pouncey (Miami)

DE: JJ Watt (Houston), Robert Quinn (St. Louis), Cameron Jordan (New Orleans), Calais Campbell (Arizona), Cameron Wake (Miami), Muhammad Wilkerson (NY Jets)

DT: Gerald McCoy (Tampa Bay), Ndamukong Suh (Detroit), Jurrell Casey (Tennessee), Kyle Williams (Buffalo), Sheldon Richardson (NY Jets), Damon Harrison (NY Jets)

MLB: Patrick Willis (San Francisco), NaVorro Bowman (San Francisco), Luke Kueckly (Carolina), Derrick Johnson (Kansas City)

OLB: Lavonte David (Tampa Bay), Elvis Dumervil (Baltimore), Robert Mathis (Indianapolis), Vontaze Burfict (Cincinnati), Brian Orakpo (Washington), Thomas Davis (Carolina)

CB: Darrelle Revis (Tampa Bay), Richard Sherman (Seattle), Vontae Davis (Indianapolis), Brent Grimes (Miami), Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Denver), Alterraun Verner (Tennessee), Patrick Peterson (Arizona), Leodis McKelvin (Buffalo)

SS: Devin McCourty (New England), Eric Berry (Kansas City)

FS: Eric Weddle (San Diego), Earl Thomas (Seattle)

K: Nick Folk (NY Jets), Justin Tucker (Baltimore)

P: Justin Hekker (St. Louis), Shane Lechler (Oakland)

KR: Cordarrelle Patterson (Minnesota), Dexter McCluster (Kansas City)

ST: Justin Bethel (Arizona), David Bruton (Denver)

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (12-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-11)

I really don’t have a good feel for this game. We’re not getting any real line value either way, as this line is exactly where it should be. The Broncos are moving the chains at a ridiculous 80.75% rate, as opposed to 71.94% for their opponents, a differential of 8.81%, first in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are all the way down at 31st, moving the chains at a 67.05% rate, as opposed to 73.77% for their opponents, a differential of -6.72%. That suggests this line should be around 12.5 in favor of Denver, which is exactly where it is.

I’m taking the Raiders for one reason and one reason only and I’m definitely not confident. However, big home underdogs have been covering at a noticeably high rate in recent years. It’s not a trend that dates back historically or anything, but, for whatever reason, home underdogs of 7.5 or more are 18-8 ATS since 2011, including 7-3 ATS in a divisional matchup. Gun to my head, I like the Raiders to keep it within 12.5.

Denver Broncos 27 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against spread: Oakland +12.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at Dallas Cowboys (8-7)

I was kicking myself when I saw this line opened at Philadelphia -3. It was at Dallas -3 a week ago and there was no reason not to take that, even before Philadelphia demolished Chicago last week. For one, Philadelphia is obviously a better team than the Cowboys, so that line suggesting these two teams were equal was obviously not correct, even last week. That was probably a big overreaction to Philadelphia’s blowout loss in Minnesota, which is a fluke when you look at how they’ve played since Nick Foles took over.

Two, home field advantage doesn’t seem to be a big deal in the NFC East. The NFC East is 79-113 ATS at home since 2008, as opposed to 107-89 ATS on the road. As you can expect, in divisional games, the road team generally has the advantage in the NFC East and that’s true, as the home team is 45-27 ATS in NFC East games since 2008, including 17-32 ATS as home favorites. There was also a powerful trend that says teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. Also, Tony Romo’s 12-26 ATS record in week 13 or later was worth noting, even if it wasn’t always his fault.

Of course, Philadelphia’s blowout victory over Chicago 54-11 pushed this line 6 full points, but even then I was considering Philadelphia, though not for a big play at all. They were still the superior team and this was still an NFC East home game, even if the Cowboys were now home dogs. Besides, teams are 45-30 ATS as favorites off of a game in which they score 48+ points since 1989, as teams seem to carry that momentum into the next week.

However, then Tony Romo was reportedly ruled out with a back injury and the line moved all the way to 6.5. We’re no longer getting line value with the Eagles and the public is all over them, which I don’t like, but they should still be the right side for three reasons. One is the aforementioned trend and the fact that they scored 48+ points last week. Two is what I mentioned about the NFC East at home. Three is the fact that the Cowboys without Tony Romo might be the worst team in the NFL, or one of them. They have the league’s worst defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77.67% rate. I’m going with Philadelphia -6.5, though for a no confidence pick. If Tony Romo somehow is able to play this week, I’ll revisit this pick, but I’m going with the Eagles until further notice.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) at Chicago Bears (8-7)

Aaron Rodgers is back! The Packers are saved! Right? Well that seems to be what everyone is thinking. The public pulse is that the Packers are now de facto NFC North Champions now that Mike McCarthy has said the words “Aaron Rodgers will be our starting quarterback” and the Bears are screwed. Reports say public bettors are literally lining up to take the Packers as mere 3 point favorites here. Public bettors always lose money in the long run though. There’s a reason why the odds makers set this line at 3. This feels like a trap bet.

Aaron Rodgers certainly upgrades their offense. Before he got hurt, the Packers were moving the chains at a 77.12% rate through 7 games, which would have ranked 3rd in the NFL right now if it had been sustained through 15 games, only behind Denver and San Diego. I have no doubt that if Rodgers had never gotten hurt, the Packers would have one of the NFL’s premier offenses once again right now. However, I have some concern that Rodgers won’t be 100% in his first game back.

The injury reportedly isn’t giving him any real pain when he throws and he’s been practicing well for a couple of weeks, but practice is one thing. It’s another thing entirely to be thrown back into game action after 2 months off. There could be some rust as he seeks to get back to game speed. He also has had limited practice with the first team, so there could be some chemistry issues. There is also some concern that Rodgers’ teammates give less than 100% knowing that their “savior” Aaron Rodgers is back.

The bigger concern, however, is this Packer defense. That’s something Rodgers can’t control and they’re one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74.42% rate. Injuries have hit them badly there as well and things aren’t going to get better this week. In fact, they could get worse as Clay Matthews is expected out for this one after re-breaking his thumb and also the defense could feel they don’t have to give 100% with savior Aaron Rodgers back. If you take their opponents’ rate of moving the chains and subtract it from that 77.12% number from earlier, that’s a differential of 2.70% and that’s an absolute best case scenario.

The Bears, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 75.56% rate, as opposed to 76.54%, a differential of -0.98% that ranks 19th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be around a pick em or 1 point in favor of Green Bay, instead of 3, and, again that’s an absolute best case scenario. The Packers could easily move the ball all over Chicago’s putrid defense, but the Bears could do the same to the Packers’ and they are the home team with the only quarterback starting in this game that has played in the last 2 or so months. Football Outsiders actually backs this up as their playoff odds model has this game at a 50/50 toss up, so getting that field goal with Chicago could be valuable.

The Bears’ putrid defense let up 54 points to the Eagles last week in a 54-11 loss, but that actually makes it more likely they’ll cover this week. It’s counterintuitive, but teams are 45-23 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 2002, including 20-6 ATS as home underdog. It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I’ve already gotten into undervalued, but overlooked and embarrassed could definitely be in play as well. The Packers could overlook the “lowly” Bears with Rodgers back, while the Bears could give 110% to put last week behind them against a team that now has their starting quarterback back.

Of course, this is essentially a play-in game so both teams could be at 100%, which would nullify some of that and work to the Packers’ advantage, but getting field goal protection with Chicago does seem like the right call right now. I definitely wish we were getting more than a field goal though, especially since Jay Cutler has lost to Aaron Rodgers 7 out of 8 times, but there once was a time that Joe Flacco couldn’t beat Ben Roethlisberger. That changed. This could too. I’m tentatively going with the Bears for a low confidence pick, but if the line increases or I become more confident I could make this a medium confidence pick later in the week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 30

Pick against spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5)

If you look at the season as a whole, the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL. Their -182 point differential is worst in the NFL. Only Houston at -146 even comes close. Their 4-11 record is actually buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, as they’ve been blown out by double digits in 9 of their 11 losses. DVOA definitely takes this into account as they remain dead last in the NFL by the Football Outsiders’ standard.

Rate of moving the chains differential also takes this into account. They move the chains at a league worst 64.02% rate and their defense doesn’t help matters, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.81% rate, a differential of -11.79%. Only Oakland even comes close, with a differential of -6.72%. That’s a massive gap. The Colts actually only rank 17th, moving the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 71.83% for their opponents, a differential of 0.07%. However, even that suggests this line should be closer to 15 instead of 11.5, given how bad Jacksonville has been on the season.

Of course, that’s just on the season. The Jaguars have been playing better football since the bye. In 7 games since the bye, they are 4-3 with just one loss by double digits. There’s a reason why they are 30th in weighted DVOA instead of dead last. Of course, those 4 wins have come by a combined 20 points, while their one double digit loss came by 13 and at home against the only even decent team they faced in that stretch, Arizona. The Cardinals stick out like a sore thumb out of a group that features Buffalo, Cleveland, Tennessee twice, and Houston twice. So would Indianapolis, at least you would think.

Indianapolis might be the toughest team in the NFL to get a read on. There’s a reason they have DVOA’s 4th highest variance (Philadelphia actually has the highest). Last season, they were nowhere near as good as their 11-5 record, as that was powered by 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished 7-9 or worse. They started out looking like that team, barely beating Oakland and losing to Miami in back-to-back home games. However, then they went on a roll over a 6 game stretch that included wins over good teams (Denver, Seattle, San Francisco) and blowout wins (34 point win in Jacksonville) that their 2012 season just didn’t have.

However, then after the bye they came out and looked like their 2012 team or even worse, with 3 point wins over Tennessee and Houston and then an 8 point win over Tennessee, but also a 29 point loss against Arizona, a 14 point loss against Cincinnati, and a 30 point loss against St. Louis. They had a -59 point differential over a 6 game stretch in which they got blown out by every decent team they faced and barely beat mediocre football teams. It reeked of 2012. However, since then, they’ve blown out the Texans by 22 and then went into Kansas City and won convincingly by 16 against a good football team.

Overall on the season, they’re not as good as their 10-5 record, as they have a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and unsustainable +11 turnover margin, which is why they are 17th in rate of moving the chains differential. However, they are definitely better than they were last season and they should be able to blow out the Jaguars here at home. I’m just concerned with how inconsistent the Colts are and that the Jaguars have been playing a little better of late. It’s a no confidence pick.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -11.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at San Diego Chargers (8-7)

I’m going to keep this one short. If you bet any money on this game, you’re a degenerate gambler. Seek help. Kansas City has already locked up the 5 seed in the AFC. Andy Reid, like he did several times in Philadelphia, will only play his starters for a series or two, much like a pre-season game, and then get his 2nd team some reps, so guys can rest for the playoffs.

It’s the right call. Some people seem to believe Reid should play his starters for momentum purposes, whatever that means, but there’s no evidence that there’s any benefit to that. Since 2002, teams that lose week 17 are 15-15 in the first round of the playoffs. Teams who win week 17 are 29-29. What there is evidence for is that it is possible for a bone to break or a muscle or ligament to tear during a week 17 game. Keep your guys healthy and focus on the playoffs. Momentum doesn’t exist.

San Diego, meanwhile, could have the meaning from this game sucked out of it before it even starts. The only way they can make the playoffs is if both Miami and Baltimore lose. Both of those teams play in the earlier time slot, while the Chargers play in the late afternoon slot. Chances are, one of those teams will win their game and eliminate San Diego before this one even starts. They could still give it their all in spite of that and play for future jobs and playing time and they’ll certainly be game planning all week like it’s a meaningful game. However, would you really blame them for giving it less than 100% hours after getting eliminated? And also, how do you game plan for an opponent’s 2nd string?

That brings me to my 2nd point. How good is Kansas City’s 2nd string? Probably not very good, but how not very good? Are they better than every NFL’s teams 1st strings? Also, how much will Andy Reid rest his starters? Will they play one drive? Will they play two? Will he only rest his stars and play the rest of his starters? What constitutes a star? How good is Kansas City with some starters? How good are they with starters playing one drive? How good are they with starters playing two drives? How am I supposed to figure this one out and will San Diego even be in a position we’re they’re taking this one seriously? How did the odds makers even come up with a spread for this one? Where did 9.5 come from? Do the odds makers even know or did they just throw a dart at a board? I think San Diego will probably win this game, but that’s about where the even semi-confident predictions stop.

I do have to give a pick, for my own records and for people with ATS pick ‘em leagues, so I’m going with San Diego, for two reasons. One is simply to fade the public, who seems to be very confidently on Kansas City for whatever reason. The public always loses money in the long run (probably because they bet on ridiculous games like this) so it’s a good idea to be on the opposite side of them. That’s a good tiebreaker when you need one.

The 2nd reason is because I feel San Diego is an underrated team. They are 8-7, but 5-2 in games decided by more than a touchdown and just 3-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 78.56% rate, as opposed to 75.33% for their opponents, a differential of 3.22%, which ranks 9th in the NFL. They would deserve to be 9.5 point favorites over anyone from St. Louis (23rd in rate of moving the chains differential) and worse.

I don’t know how to compare whatever Kansas City is coming with this week vs. the St. Louis Rams, but the Rams are probably better, though, again, I don’t know what San Diego’s mental state is going to be. However, because the Chargers are underrated, I’m going to assume we’re getting line value with them somehow, fade the public and take the Chargers, gun to my head. But again, if you bet money on this game, seek help.

Side note: I just read the first sentence of this and saw that it said “I’m going to keep this short” and realized I wrote over 750 words. Apparently I’m incapable of keeping it short because I just wrote 750 words on how I don’t know anything about this game. Maybe I should seek help.

San Diego Chargers 31 Kansas City Chiefs 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -9.5

Confidence: None

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (11-4)

I’m torn on this. On one hand, New England hasn’t been doing a lot of winning pretty this season. Of their 11 wins, only 4 have come by more than a touchdown and one of those, a 27-17 win over Miami, was a lot closer than the final score would suggest. On top of that, just 5 of the Patriots’ wins have come by more than a field goal as they have a ridiculous 6 wins by a touchdown or less. Considering this line is 9 points, that matters. Even last week when the Patriots beat the Ravens 41-7, they only had 20 points before garbage time and two return touchdowns. The first down battle (21 to 19 New England) was much closer than the final score.

Because of this, the Patriots only rank 10th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 74.11 rate, as opposed to 71.03% for their opponents, a differential of 3.08%. The Bills, meanwhile, come in 18th, moving the chains at a 66.03% rate, as opposed to 66.88% for their opponents, a differential of -0.85%. That suggests this line should be closer to 7, rather than 9. The Patriots have also had issues covering large spreads like this recently, going 8-16 ATS as 7.5+ point favorites since 2010.

However, on the other hand, the Bills are in a terrible spot on the road coming off of a blowout win as divisional home underdogs. Teams are 28-55 ATS since 1989 on the road off of a 10+ point home win as divisional underdogs. It makes sense, as teams tend to have hangover effects off of that type of big win, which can hurt their focus. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Bills and fading the public, but I’m not confident. I’ll just hope for a touchdown game.

New England Patriots 24 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +9

Confidence: None

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