Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (4-10-1)

The Lions are such a frustrating team. They have the talent to be 11-4 right now, but they’re 7-8. The things that are plaguing them, close losses (3-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less), turnovers (-14), and recovering fumbles (40.00%) are things that usually are inconsistent in the long run, but they seem to consistently plague this team. I make my picks with the assumption that those things tend to be inconsistent (which they do), but it’s not going to work perfectly every time for every team in every situation. I’m hitting about 60% of my picks against the spread on the season, which is almost impossible, but even then I’m wrong about 40% of the time. It’s the nature of against the spread picking.

Their problems might not be fixed until they fire Jim Schwartz and get a more disciplined head coach in this off-season. If they do that, they have the potential to be a very, very good football team in 2014 because, at their best, they’re as good as anyone in the NFL. They might be one of my sleepers as I think forward to 2014. Depending on what happens this off-season, I could see them doing something like what Carolina did this season. They are on the verge of going 12-4, winning the NFC South, and getting the 2nd seed, which is exactly what I had them doing at the beginning of the season. As for this week though, it could be tough to back the Lions again, but there are reasons why they could be a smart bet.

In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, which nullifies the effect of inconsistent things like close losses, fumble recovery, and turnovers, they do rank 5th. They move the chains at a 74.46% rate, as opposed to 68.24% for their opponents, a differential of 6.22%. They have 65 more first downs than their opponents (only New Orleans and Denver are better), 13 fewer punts than their opponents (again only New Orleans and Denver are better), and have scored 43 touchdowns to 22 field goal attempts, as opposed to 32 touchdowns and 40 field goal attempts for their opponents. They are +11 in touchdown margin, which is 6th in the NFL, and -18 in field goal attempt margin, which is best in the NFL. Turnovers are their only problem.

The Vikings, meanwhile, rank much lower, coming in at 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, which shouldn’t surprise anyone given their 4-10-1 record. They move the chains at a 70.45% rate, as opposed to 76.52% for their opponents, a differential of -6.07%. That suggests that this line, instead of being Minnesota -3, should be Detroit -9. That’s too much to ignore, no matter how bad the Lions have been failing to live up to expectations of late. I’m not incredibly confident or anything, but there’s no way these two teams are equal on a neutral field, which is what this line would suggest.

I’m making this is a medium confidence pick for now. Don’t put any money on Detroit +3 yet though as I’m waiting to see the status of both Calvin Johnson and Adrian Peterson before I actually place a bet. Both could be out this week, but both could also play. If Adrian Peterson plays and Calvin Johnson does not, I’ll probably lower this to a low confidence pick, depending on where this line will be. I could also chicken out and drop it to a low confidence pick if Johnson is ruled out, regardless of Peterson’s status, if I change my mind or I don’t like where the line is at that point, but for now I do like the Lions this week, as long as we’re getting a field goal and Johnson plays.

Update: Leaving it at medium confidence. Adrian Peterson is listed as doubtful and Toby Gerhart is out. Calvin Johnson, meanwhile, could play, despite not practicing all week, as he’s listed as questionable and will be a game time decision. Besides, doesn’t the Lions winning a meaningless game convincingly against a bad team after their season is over seems like a very Lions thing to do. They have a ton of talent and could live up to it now that the pressure is off.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (6-9)

Firing Gary Kubiak and replacing him with Wade Phillips didn’t seem to fix anything. They’ve lost their last two games by margins of 22 and 24 points, despite losing 8 of their previous 11 games by a touchdown or less. Sure they were facing tough teams in the Colts and Broncos, but they had been within a field goal of Kansas City, Arizona, New England, and Indianapolis under Kubiak. All Phillips seems to have done is help this team get closer to the #1 pick, which I guess could have been the goal.

However, teams tend to cover the spread off of back-to-back losses by 21 points or more, going 39-21 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Giants got blown out in back-to-back weeks before last week and then they went into Detroit and won as 9 point underdogs. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. All 3 could be true for the Texans here this week.

However, I don’t know if they’ll get up for this one and be competitive, given the way they’ve been playing since Wade Phillips took over. He doesn’t seem to being doing a good job of preparing this team. I’m especially concerned about the Texans since their last two games were much more important to them than this one. After getting blown out by the Colts and Broncos, against whom they played very tough, keeping it within a field goal late, they could just mail it in against the Titans. You wouldn’t think they would because they are professionals playing for future contracts and future playing time, but it’s happened before.

We’re not really getting any significant line value with the Texans either. They are better their record. As I mentioned, they’ve had a lot of close losses and they’ve played good teams close. They move the chains at a 66.88% rate, as opposed to 69.72%, a differential of -2.84% that ranks 21st in the NFL. The Titans, meanwhile, move the chains at a 72.11% rate, as opposed to 72.03% for their opponents, a differential of 0.09% that ranks 16th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 6, instead of 7. It’s something, but it’s not significant enough line value to be confident in the Texans here, especially with the way they’ve been playing under Phillips.

If I had to take a side, I would take the Texans, as we are getting a little bit of line value with them and because of that aforementioned trend, but I can’t be confident in them at all. It’s not just because of what I mentioned earlier, but also because both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. I only pick a side confidently in a matchup like this when there’s a very clear right side. That’s not the case here at all.

Tennessee Titans 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: Houston +7

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (4-11) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8)

The situational trends say Cleveland is the right side here. For one, Cleveland is in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-64 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. The Browns are in that situation off of a loss in New York to the Jets last week.

Another powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread, as the previous loss artificially inflates the spread. The Browns have room to play with here because they are 7 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

However, that assumes these two teams are equal, which I don’t think is true. Cleveland is not playing good football right now, as they are on a 6 game losing streak and lost by 11 to the Jets last week, the Jets’ biggest win of the season in terms of margin of victory. They haven’t won at all since they were 2 point home favorites for the Steelers week 12. The Steelers, meanwhile, are better than their 7-8 record, as they are 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

They are moving the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 71.33% for their opponents, a differential of 0.57%, which ranks 13th in the NFL. The Browns, meanwhile, are all the way down at 24th, moving the chains at a 68.18% rate, as opposed to 71.78% for their opponents, a differential of -3.60%. That suggests this line should be around 7, which is where is it, so we’re not getting any real line value, but it kind of nullifies some (but not all) of that aforementioned trend because these two teams are not comparable.

On top of that, the Ben Roethlisberger led Steelers usually dominate the division. They are 37-23 ATS in divisional games since 2004, Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie year, including 34-18 ATS in games in which Ben Roethlisberger starts. On top of that, they are 10-4 ATS in divisional games in which they are favored by a touchdown or more at home since 2004. At the end of the day, the Browns are probably the right choice because they have powerful situational trends on their side, but I’m not confident at all. Pittsburgh is also my Survivor Pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-11)

This is an important game to the Panthers for seeding purposes. If they win and Seattle were to lose, they would become the #1 seed and have home field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl. However, if they were to lose and New Orleans were to win, they’d fall all the way from the 2nd seed to the 5th seed, not only losing a first round bye in the process, but also losing guaranteed home field advantage through to the NFC Championship game. Atlanta, meanwhile, is obviously eliminated, but they’ll still play hard to try to ruin the plans of a divisional rival. They’ve been playing decent football of late and they clearly have not quit as players are playing for future playing time and contracts.

The Panthers usually blow out bad teams. The Falcons are playing better of late, but they’re still a bad team, exemplified by the fact that they are rightfully 6.5 point underdogs here at home. The Panthers haven’t always held their own in close games against top level teams like this year, but they’ve always destroyed bad teams, going 6-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2011, the start of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. That one ATS loss was a 10 point win as 11 point favorites against the Jets a few weeks ago so it’s not like it wasn’t close to being a cover. The Jets backdoored them with a garbage time touchdown late down 30-13. They’ve still won all 7 of those games by an average of 18.72 points per game.

Given that, the Panthers should be the right side, but it’s not a big play. That alone isn’t enough to go on for a significant play and it’s not like we’re getting line significant value as I have this line calculated at exactly a touchdown, which is where it basically is at right now. Carolina could also be a little hungover after last week’s huge comeback win over New Orleans, though Atlanta too could be flat off of a crushing road loss on Monday Night Football to the 49ers in what was pretty much their Super Bowl. Of course, they could also see this one as a big game because of the Panthers’ record and because they are a divisional rival. At the end of the day, the Panthers should be the right side as long as the line stays under a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Carolina Panthers 23 Atlanta Falcons 13

Pick against spread: Carolina -6.5

Confidence: Low

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2013 Head Coaches Likely to be Fired

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Likely to be fired

Mike Munchak (Tennessee)

Mike Munchak’s name has been on the hot seat for a while in Tennessee, with many believing he’d be fired last off-season. He was kept around, predictably as he had only finished his 2nd season with the team, but this time around he might not be so lucky. Munchak has a 21-26 record in 3 seasons and has failed to take the team to the playoffs. This year, the Titans are 6-9, heading into a week 17 home finale against the Texans. Owner Bud Adams, who hired Munchak, has died so the team is going to be under new leadership and the new leadership could easily let Munchak go in an attempt to get the team unstuck out of the mud.

Rex Ryan (NY Jets)

Rex Ryan reportedly told his team before their week 16 win over Cleveland that he was getting fired after the season. Reports have refuted that, but still no one would be surprised if Ryan was let go. Ryan and injured reserve quarterback Mark Sanchez are the only real holdovers from that era and with new GM John Idzik in charge, there’s been an expectation for the past year or so that this would be the end of Ryan’s tenure in New York, which saw him go 41-38 (pending week 17), make two NFC Championships, but fail to make the playoffs in each of his final 3 seasons. Now fired former GM Mike Tannenbaum was more to blame for that and I actually don’t agree with letting Ryan go, after he led this bunch to a 7-8 record with his strong defense, but right now it seems inevitable. Rex Ryan and Jim Schwartz are the longest tenured NFL head coaches without division titles. In today’s NFL, that likely means you’re gone.

Mike Shanahan (Washington)

This is where it gets messy. There’s no doubt right now owner Dan Snyder wishes Mike Shanahan was gone, after a 24-39 tenure that saw him make the playoffs just once. Shanahan might not even want to be there, after he reportedly thought about resigning last January because he hated working with Snyder, only to be stopped by RG3’s torn ACL and the bad personal PR that would have come with resigning after that. However, Shanahan wants to get his 7 million dollars in 2014 salary and he wouldn’t get that by resigning this off-season, while Snyder doesn’t want to fire him because he’d have to pay him that. You have to think eventually Shanahan will be gone, but it might be messy.

Dennis Allen (Oakland)

Dennis Allen’s record in 2 seasons with the Raiders isn’t that good, as he’s 8-23, but he’s only in his 2nd year and he’s been put into a near impossible situation with a team devoid of talent and in salary cap hell, so I wouldn’t agree with him being let go just yet. However, it doesn’t sound like Mark Davis’ apple has fallen far from his dad’s tree and, now that he’s in charge, he may be just as impatient with head coaches as father Al Davis. Allen’s requests to have his assistants signed to extensions have already been denied by Mark Davis, which is never a good sign.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit)

A couple of weeks ago, it was reported that Jim Schwartz needed to make the playoffs to save his job. After being eliminated from the playoffs last week at home to the 6-9 Giants, it would be hard to see Schwartz being kept. The Lions were 6-3, looking at a schedule that featured just one likely playoff team (Philadelphia) over their final 7 games, but now they sit at 7-8 and already on the outside looking in. I have no idea how he keeps his job after that. The Lions are a talented team, but they are consistently plagued by things like losing close games, committing turnovers, and allowing return touchdowns, things that are supposed to be inconsistent. At the end of the day, they need new leadership. They have the talent to be a 12-4 team, but they’ll probably never get there under Schwartz. Schwartz is 29-50 in 5 seasons, with one playoff berth and no division titles.

Borderline

Jason Garrett (Dallas)

There have been conflicting reports on whether or not Jason Garrett is coaching for his job in this week’s NFC East play-in game. Certainly, Garrett being fired after a 29-27 tenure with no playoff appearances in Dallas would be no surprise. However, Romo’s injury might have saved Garrett’s job as it would allow him to deflect blame for a potential week 17 loss to Philadelphia, which would eliminate them from playoff contention. I could see this one going either way.

Greg Schiano (Tampa Bay)

There was a time earlier this season when Schiano seemed like the most likely head coach in the NFL to be canned, after the Buccaneers 0-8 start, which was filled with numerous reports about the players dislike of Schiano’s coaching style. However, now the Buccaneers are 4-11, including some impressive wins, such as double digit wins over Tampa Bay and Atlanta and upset wins over a Miami team that will likely make the playoffs and a Detroit team that was still playing well at the time. Of their losses, most have been close and they’ve fought all along. That could be enough to save Schiano’s job, especially since this is only his 2nd season. He has an 11-20 record thus far.

Leslie Frazier (Minnesota)

Leslie Frazier led the upstart Vikings to a 10-6 record last season and looked like a coach of the year candidate, after they went 3-13 the year before. The Vikings predictably picked up his option for 2014, but this is the NFL and now they may be regretting that, as the Vikings are 4-10-1. Frazier is now 20-32-1 as head coach of the Vikings and the Vikings can get out of their mistake of picking up his option by letting him go this off-season. At the same time, it wouldn’t surprise me if they kept him around for his contract year.

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Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (6-9)

The Giants went into Detroit and beat the Lions last week, while the Redskins lost at home to the Cowboys. Surely the Giants will win at home here against the Redskins and cover this small spread right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Giants as mere 4 point favorites. However, this is the NFL. Things can change from a week to week basis very quickly and the odds makers always win in the long run.

The Giants are in a bad spot coming off such an emotional overtime win over the Lions last week. Teams are 24-41 ATS since 2002 as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as road underdogs of 3 or more, which makes sense, as teams can be overconfident and overvalued in those situations and suffer a hangover effect. We have seen this line shift from 3 to 4 in the past week, which is something.

As for the Redskins, they’re actually in a good spot after last week’s loss. Teams on a losing streak of 6 or more are 42-24 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by a touchdown or less. Teams on long losing streaks tend to be undervalued because no one wants to bet on them, but some teams on long losing streaks are teams that quit. This isolates out those teams because, if they recently played a close game, they’re probably still fighting. The Redskins covered in this spot last week, losing by a mere point as 3 point home underdogs. They’re still fighting hard, in spite of this lost season, because the players are trying to impress any future coaching staff they may have, or any future team that might have interest in them in free agency.

Besides, while the Giants won last week as road underdogs, a situation they historically do well in since 2004, when Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin first came to town, now they are home favorites, a situation they have not done well in since 2004, especially late in the season. While they are 35-20 ATS as road underdogs since 2004, they are 8-16 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later over that time period. Last week, they had no pressure and were able to take advantage of a choking Detroit team, but now the pressure and the expectations are back on the Giants as significant home favorites. They usually are the ones who choke in that situation.

Home struggles aren’t exclusive just to the Giants. The NFC East in general seems to struggle at home and play well on the road, at least in recent years. They are 79-113 ATS at home since 2008, as opposed to 107-89 ATS on the road. As you can expect, in divisional games, the road team generally has the advantage in the NFC East and that’s true, as the home team is 45-27 ATS in NFC East games since 2008, including 17-32 ATS as home favorites. Given that, the fact that the Redskins almost pulled off the home win last week is actually pretty impressive and I give them a good chance to pull off the road upset here this week. This trend worked against the Redskins the last time these two teams met in week 13, when the Redskins lost a tough one as 1 point home favorites.

Going off of that game, another trend favors the Redskins. Teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Redskins have room to play with here because they are 4 point underdogs so they can cover even if they don’t win.

It might not seem like it, but in spite of their respective records (Giants are 6-9 and the Redskins are 3-10) and what happened last week, these teams are actually very comparable and even. In fact, in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Redskins actually rank higher. They move the chains at a 71.34% rate, as opposed to 75.88% for their opponents, a differential of -4.54%, which ranks 26th in the NFL. 26th isn’t anything to write home about, but it’s still better than the Giants, who come in 28th. They move the chains at a 65.70% rate, as opposed to 71.46% for their opponents, a differential of -5.76%.

Now, I don’t think the Redskins are better than the Giants as that suggests. Rate of moving the chains differential doesn’t take into account special teams, intentionally as people tend to put too much value into something that is such a small percentage of the plays in a game and so tough to be sustainable good at. However, the Redskins have proven this season that they are sustainable bad at special teams, which is why New York is probably better, but it’s not by a lot. At the very least, this line, which suggests the Giants are a point better than Washington, is accurate and, of course, that’s before we get into the Giants home struggles, the home struggles of the NFC East as a whole, and the individual situations these two teams are in.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on Washington is because neither of these two teams has anything to play for in terms of playoffs. Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. However, there’s still enough here for me to be somewhat confident in the Redskins, especially since the Redskins don’t have their own first round pick and don’t have anything to “tank” for. They should be the right side.

Washington Redskins 24 New York Giants 23 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Washington +4

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-5)

The Cardinals proved themselves last week to be a very good football team, going into Seattle, where no one has won in two years, and winning despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams rarely are able to overcome a -2 turnover margin, winning just about 17.7% of the time. Winning despite losing the turnover battle by 2 is hard; winning as double digit underdogs despite losing the turnover battle by 2 is even harder. In fact, that was just the 5th time a team had done that since 1989, rising the winning percentage of double digit underdogs who lose the turnover battle by 2 to 4.0%.

It wasn’t just last week. The Cardinals are doing a very impressive job on the season. They are moving the chains at a solid 71.22% rate, while their strong defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.37% rate, a differential of 2.86% that ranks 11th in the NFL. They’re a comparable football team to their opponents here, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers rank a little higher, coming in at 8th, moving the chains at a 70.70% rate, as opposed to 67.20% for their opponents, a differential of 3.50%. However, these are definitely comparable teams. In spite of that, the Cardinals are 1.5 point home underdogs here. Rate of moving the chains differential suggests this line should be closer to 2 in favor of Arizona, so we’re getting some significant line value here.

That doesn’t even take into account that Arizona is a much better home team than road team. Arizona has been money at home this season, going 6-1, as opposed to 4-4 on the road. It’s not just their record. It’s how much they’re winning by and who they are beating. They are outscoring opponents by 10.57 points per game at home, which includes that home loss, which came against Seattle. Their average margin of victory is 14.33 points per game. In that 6-1 record is two wins by double digits over likely division winners Indianapolis and Carolina (by a combined 45 points) and a win over a Detroit team week 2 that was much better to start the season than to end the season.

This home dominance is nothing new. Since 2006, they are 42-25 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.37 points per game. On the road, they are 22-44 over that time period, getting outscored by 6.12 points per game. Given that, I don’t think the normal 3 points for home field advantage is appropriate for this team. On top of that, when they are underdogs or small home favorites (2.5 or less), they’ve essentially been an auto-bet over that time period, going 29-12 ATS. Whenever they just need to win to cover a spread at home, they usually get the job done and that’s the case here. Now that they have arguably their best team of that time period (remember, even in their NFC Championship year in 2008, they went 9-7 in the regular season), they are an incredibly tough team to beat at home, as I demonstrated earlier.

The 49ers haven’t done a good job this season against tough opponents. Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers have both been incredible this season against bad teams, teams that are currently .500 or worse, going 9-0 in those games, winning by an average of 18.56 points per game. Colin Kaepernick has completed 137 of 216 (63.4%) for 1965 yards (9.10 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns on 52 carries.

However, against teams that are currently better than .500, they are just 2-4, with both wins coming at home. In those games, Colin Kaepernick is 85 of 166 (51.2%) for 922 yards (5.55 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while rushing for 197 yards and no touchdowns on 36 carries. The Cardinals’ tough defense is even tougher at home and could easily give Kaepernick a lot of trouble. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is doing a terrific job this season and will have a great game plan to confuse Kaepernick and he has the personnel to execute it, led by Calais Campbell, Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington, and Patrick Peterson, all of whom are playing at a Pro-Bowl caliber level.

The one concern and the reason why this isn’t a bigger play: teams are 36-56 ATS since 1989 off of a win as road underdogs of 10 or more. It makes sense. Pulling off a huge upset like that tends to make teams overvalued and overconfident and they can experience a hangover effect when they fall back to earth the next week. However, there are two things that nullify that to an extent here. One, I don’t think the Cardinals are overvalued here. As I illustrated earlier, I actually think the Cardinals are undervalued, in spite of last week’s huge win.

On top of that, for whatever reason, the line moved from a pick ‘em to 1.5 in favor of San Francisco over the past week, despite Arizona’s big win. We didn’t lose line value. In fact, just the opposite happened. Two, the Cardinals absolutely need this win to stay alive in the playoff race so that could nullify some of their overconfidence and the potential hangover effect. It’s still a concern, which is why it isn’t a bigger play, but there’s enough here for me to be pretty confident in Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 10 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Arizona +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)

One powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Jets have room to play with here because they are 7 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

These two teams might not seem to be even teams because the Dolphins are favored by a whole touchdown and because the Jets were just favored by one point in New York a few weeks ago and got blown out, but they are pretty even, much more than this line would suggest. We’re getting line value with the Jets. The Dolphins are not as good as their 8-7 record would suggest. The complete goose egg they laid in Buffalo last week is just evidence of that.

They rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, largely because of an incompetent offense, which moves the chains at a 66.74% rate, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their porous offensive line is a big part of the reason why and the Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL because of the trio of Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, and Muhammad Wilkerson, all of whom are playing like Pro-Bowlers. They have the potential to take over this game.

The Dolphins defense is much better than their offense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.46% rate, but that’s still a differential of -3.72%, which, again, ranks 25th in the NFL. The Jets are 27th. Their offense obviously struggles, moving the chains at a 64.90% rate, but their defense is much better as they allow their opponents to move the chains at a 69.75% rate, a differential of -4.86%. That suggests this line should be around 4, instead of 7. Given that, the Jets definitely seem like the right side.

However, the Jets do tend to struggle on the road and off of a win. The Jets have been very bad off of a win over the past 2 seasons, going 3-9 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2012 season. They haven’t handled success well. On top of that, Geno Smith has been horrible on the road this season. He hasn’t been good anywhere. However, his road numbers are some of the worst you’ll ever see for a guy who kept his starting job all season.

He’s completed 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.55 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Even that’s skewed by a 3 touchdown, no interception performance in Atlanta. In his other 5 road games, he has 2 touchdown, and 13 interceptions. As a result, the Jets have lost those 5 games by an average of 19.5 points per game, while the win in Atlanta came by just 2. I’m still taking the points, especially since the Dolphins have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: Low

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St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (12-3)

The Seahawks need this win to clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage through to the Super Bowl. The Seahawks lost at home last week, for the first time since week 16 of the 2011 and the first time in Russell Wilson’s career, snapping a perfect 14-0 start. However, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t still be an auto-bet at home. Nothing is going to work every time, but betting on the Seahawks blindly at home has been very lucrative in the past, actually dating back several seasons.

Since 2007, they are 38-18 ATS at home, including 22-10 ATS as home favorites, and 11-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 11-4 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.87 points per game at home since the start of last season. One loss doesn’t change that.

What one loss does do is give us some line value with the Seahawks. The Seahawks were 10 point home favorites for the Cardinals last week and it seemed completely reasonable at the time given the Seahawks home dominance. Now they are just 10 point home favorites against a St. Louis team that lost by 20 in Arizona and that is without left tackle Jake Long with a torn ACL? Why? Because they lost one game? The Seahawks have been very good off of a loss recently anyway, going 15-9 ATS off of a loss since Pete Carroll took over in 2010 and 5-2 ATS off of a loss since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback in 2012. That makes sense considering elite head coach/quarterback duos usually dominate off of a loss.

How much line value are we getting with the Seahawks? Well, they move the chains at a 72.28% rate, as opposed to 66.82% for their opponents, a differential of 5.46%, which ranks 6th in the NFL. The Rams, meanwhile, come in at 23rd, moving the chains at a 70.07% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.37%. That suggests this line should be around 12, before you even get into the Seahawks’ home dominance and the absence of Jake Long. I have a lot of confidence in the Seahawks this week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 St. Louis Rams 6

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at New Orleans Saints (10-5)

This game is very important to the Saints. If they lose here, they can be knocked out of the playoffs entirely if the Cardinals lose to the 49ers. Also, if the Panthers somehow lose earlier in the day, the Saints can get a first round bye with a win here. Sean Payton has already said the Saints will be approaching this game like a playoff game and that’s very reasonable. This game doesn’t mean anything for the Buccaneers, but their players will be playing for future contracts and the like so they’ll probably put a lot into this one as well, especially because they would love a chance to eliminate a division rival.

In spite of that, I still really like the Saints. Their recent 2 game road trip did not go well for them as they lost as big favorites in St. Louis and then lost on a late drive to the Panthers in Carolina, losing the division lead in the process. However, now they are back at home, where they are essentially an auto-bet. As long as Sean Payton is on the sideline and Drew Brees is under center, the Saints are 30-10 ATS at home since 2008 and they are 15-0-1 ATS at home over their last 16 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 16 of those games by an average of about 20.5 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. Given that, getting the Saints as 13 point favorites here at home over the lowly Buccaneers is stealing.

I have a 13-1 ATS record picking Saints games this season and I would be 13-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated. That’s their only road cover of the season as they are 1-6 ATS on the road, but, again, now they are back home.

It also helps the Saints that they are coming off of a loss as they are 17-5 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline and Drew Brees is under center. They were unable to come through in this situation last week, but they still almost beat a very tough Carolina team on the road, despite their road struggles. They definitely play better off of a loss. Besides, last week was a road game and now they are back home, where they are 12-2 ATS off of a loss since 2008 with Sean Payton, including 10-0 ATS off of a road loss.

Even before you take into account the Saints’ home dominance and how well they play off of a loss, we’re getting line value with the Saints. They rank 3rd in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.51% rate, as opposed to 68.84% for their opponents, a differential of 7.67%. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, rank 29th in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.11% rate, as opposed to 72.16% for their opponents, a differential of -6.05%. That suggests this line should be around 16.5, instead of 12.5, again even before we take into account the Saints home dominance and how well they play off of a loss.

They only thing the Buccaneers have working for them is that they are road underdogs off of a road loss, a situation teams are 101-64 ATS in since 2008. Teams cover at roughly that rate in that situation historically as well, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. It’s not a new thing. However, I don’t think that’s going to protect them from getting blown out. I have a lot of confidence in the Saints.

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against spread: New Orleans -13

Confidence: High

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