Las Vegas Raiders 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Raiders

Quarterback

The Raiders qualified for the post-season in 2021, which was surprising in a couple ways. For one, most didn’t expect much out of the Raiders going into last season, with their pre-season odds to make the post-season being around +350. Those odds were even lower at the end of week 14, when the Raiders sat at just 6-7, coming off of a humiliating 48-9 loss in Kansas City the following week, having already fired head coach Jon Gruden earlier in the season, but the Raiders managed to win out to finish 10-7 and with a wild card berth.

In some ways, the Raiders were lucky to win those four games, walking a tightrope by winning all four games by four points or fewer, with their -65 point differential being worst among playoff qualifiers, but in other ways, the Raiders were unlucky last season, as they had several unpredictive metrics go against them. Their -9 turnover margin was 6th worst in the NFL and worst among playoff qualifiers, but turnover margins tend to be highly unpredictive on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Underperforming on third down is also not predictive and the Raiders ranked 22nd in third down conversion rate and 15th in third down conversion rate allowed, despite ranking 17th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency, which is much more predictive.

The Raiders lost in the first round of the playoffs in a close game against the Bengals, a game in which they again were the more efficient team on a per play basis, but lost the turnover battle by two in a one-score loss. Going into the off-season, the Raiders were at a bit of a crossroads, not only needing to find a new head coach, but with their long-time quarterback Derek Carr going into the final year of his contract. Carr was due a reasonable 19.9 million in 2022, but would likely command a significant raise on a long-term extension.

The Raiders could have opted to join this off-season’s quarterback carousel and traded Carr, which would have given them a significant return. Instead, they doubled down on Carr, extending him on a 3-year, 121.5 million dollar deal, which will make him the 5th highest paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary. That could easily prove to be a mistake, as the track record of paying non-elite quarterbacks top level money is not good. 

In fact, Since the start of the salary cap era in 1994, just 5 of 28 Super Bowls have been won by a quarterback with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap and all of those quarterbacks are Hall of Fame caliber players. It’s close to impossible to win with a highly paid starting quarterback unless he is an elite player under center, as it becomes very tough to surround a non-elite quarterback with enough talent to win with if that quarterback is taking a significant percentage of the cap. 

Carr’s cap hit is set to significantly exceed that 11% threshold in every season 2023-2025, but he hasn’t shown himself to be a consistently top level quarterback. In eight seasons in the league, he’s finished above average on PFF five times, but he’s finished in the top-5 just once, in a career best year back in 2016. He’s coming off three straight above average finishes on PFF, completing 68.7% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 71 touchdowns, and 31 interceptions, and he should continue that above average play into 2022, but he’ll likely never produce at a high enough level to justify his new raise.

Carr has been very durable in his career, playing every game in six of eight seasons in the league and only suffering one serious injury that cost him extended time, when he broke his leg in 2016 at the end of that career best season. The Raiders will need Carr to remain healthy in 2022, without a good backup option behind him. Over the past two seasons, the Raiders’ backup quarterback has been Marcus Mariota, who was overqualified in the role, but he signed with the Falcons as a starter this off-season and the Raiders don’t have anywhere near as good of an alternative.

To compete for the backup job, the Raiders have added Nick Mullens and Jarrett Stidham this off-season. Mullens has started 17 career games, but has been underwhelming and was the Browns’ 3rd string quarterback for most of last season. Mullens has at least played though, which is more than you can say about Stidham, a 2019 4th round pick who could never get on the field in New England, backing up three different starters in three seasons and attempting just 48 regular season pass attempts, before following former Patriots offensive coordinator and new Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels to Las Vegas in a swap of late round picks. Mullens’ experience probably makes him the favorite for the job, but Stidham does have a greater knowledge of the system. Regardless of who wins the job, the Raiders would be in trouble if Carr missed significant time.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Raiders got Derek Carr some help in a big way this off-season, making an aggressive move to add one of the best wide receivers in the league in Davante Adams, in exchange for a first and second round pick, and then giving the previously franchise tagged Adams a massive 5-year, 140 million dollar contract that makes him the highest paid wide receiver in the NFL. Between the excess value loss from the draft picks and Adams’ actual salary, the Raiders are paying upwards of 35 million annually for Adams and that number would be even higher if Adams didn’t make it to the end of the contract.

In some ways, this move is the Raiders going all in on 2022, before Carr’s cap number jumps in 2023 and beyond. Carr and Adams will be making more than 70 million combined annually on their new contracts and it’s going to be very tough to build a competitive supporting cast around that duo going forward, especially without a steady stream of cheap young talent coming in through the draft. Adams also isn’t that young anymore, now going into his age 30 season. 

That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s about to decline significantly, but a wide receiver in his age 30 season is 21% less likely to surpass 1,000 yards than a wide receiver in his age 29 season. After age 30, the drop off gets even more pronounced, with a wide receiver in his age 33 season being 67% less likely to surpass 1,000 yards than a wide receiver in his age 30 season and 80% less likely than a wide receiver in his age 26 season. Adams also will probably see a statistical hit just going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr, though Carr is not a bad quarterback and will have some pre-existing chemistry with Adams, from their time together at Fresno State.

All that being said, Adams should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league, at least for 2022, even if he does decline a little bit, because he’s starting from such a high base point. Adams has finished in the top-13 among wide receivers on PFF in five straight seasons, including four straight top-10 finishes and back-to-back #1 finishes in 2020 and 2021. In total, he’s averaged 2.53 yards per route run over the past four seasons, with averages of 2.96 yards per route run (1st in the NFL) and 2.82 yards per route run (3rd in the NFL) in 2020 and 2021 respectively. He probably won’t reach either of those numbers with his new team, but I would still expect him to be among the league’s best as long he doesn’t suffer an unexpected injury.

In addition to his age and a quarterback downgrade from Rodgers to Carr, another reason why Adams could see his statistical production drop with the Raiders is that he probably won’t get quite the same target share. In Green Bay, Adams was usually the Packers only above average receiver on the field and, as a result, he leads the league with 614 targets over the past four seasons, with just five other wide receivers surpassing even 500 targets over that span. Adams produced a lot, but he had the benefit of being the most targeted wide receiver in the league and catching those passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the league, two benefits he probably won’t have in Las Vegas.

With the Raiders, Adams will cede more targets to slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller, both of whom have been focal points of this passing game in the past and who will now take on more secondary roles. One of the best stories in the NFL, Waller was a 6th round pick by the Ravens in 2015, drafted on the potential of his 4.46 speed at 6-6 238, after hardly producing as a collegiate wide receiver in the run heavy Georgia Tech offense, totaling just 51 catches in his college career. The Ravens moved Waller to tight end, but, despite his physical tools and upside, Waller barely got on the field for the Ravens, with his career nearly getting derailed because of drug problems. 

Waller caught just 12 passes in 18 games in three seasons with the Ravens and, after being suspended for all of 2017, Waller got clean, got his life together, and got another chance from the Raiders. Now bulked up to 6-6 256 to play tight end, Waller didn’t see much action as a mid-season addition in 2018, but in 2019 he surprised everyone and broke out as one of the top tight ends in the league, finishing with a 90/1146/3 slash line, ranking 5th among tight ends with 2.42 yards per route run, and overall being PFF’s 5th ranked tight end. The following season in 2020, Waller proved he wasn’t a fluke, totaling 107/1196/9, ranking 4th among tight ends with 2.28 yards per route run, and finishing as PFF’s 3rd ranked tight end overall. 

However, in 2021, Waller was limited to 11 games by injury, which is when Hunter Renfrow took over as the focal point of the offense, finishing with a 1,000 yard season of his own, with a 103/1038/9 slash line and a 1.94 yards per route run average. Renfrow was especially productive with Waller out of the lineup. Including the week 12 game where Waller left after 21 snaps, Renfrow caught 50 passes for 559 yards and 3 touchdowns in seven games without Waller last season (121/1358/7 extrapolated over 17 games), averaging 2.37 yards per route run.

Renfrow’s role will be scaled back with Waller returning and Adams being added, but Renfrow has averaged 1.92 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, so he’s been an efficient weapon his whole career, regardless of his role. Waller will also see his role scaled back as well and his production was declining last season even before his significant late season injury, as his 1.86 yards per route run average through week 12 was still good, but it was also a significant drop off from 2019 and 2020. That’s especially concerning because Waller is now heading into his age 30 season and could decline further, but he should remain at least an above average tight end, albeit with less of a target share in the passing game.

Renfrow and Waller should still remain heavily involved in this offense behind Adams though, in large part because they are still significantly better options than the rest of this receiving corps, which drops off significantly after their top-3 targets. Zay Jones (638 snaps) and Bryan Edwards (811 snaps) had significant roles on this offense last season, but are now elsewhere and, even though they weren’t great players (1.38 and 1.12 yards per route run respectively), the Raiders don’t have good replacement options.

Veterans DeMarcus Robinson and Keelan Cole were added in free agency on near minimum contracts and they’ll compete for the #3 wide receiver job, playing outside opposite Adams when Renfrow moves to the slot. Cole has been the more productive of the two in his career, but he’s never been anything more than a middling #3 receiver, with a 1.27 yards per route run average for his 5-year career, but that’s substantially better than the 0.82 yards per route run that DeMarcus Robinson has averaged in his 6-year career. Making Robinson’s average even worse is the fact that he’s gotten to play with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City for most of his career. Cole should be the favorite to start as the #3 receiver over Robinson, but Cole isn’t a great option either.

The Raiders may run more two-tight end sets to compensate for their lack of depth at wide receiver and backup tight end Foster Moreau isn’t bad, but he’s not likely to command a significant target share either, barring another injury to Waller. Moreau was a 4th round pick in 2019 and his 1.26 career yards per route run average isn’t bad for a tight end, but that dropped to 1.15 in 2021 when forced into a larger role. The 23/251/1 slash line he had in the 7 games Waller missed all or most of extrapolates to 56/610/2 over 17 games, which aren’t bad numbers for a starting tight end, but he was still a significant downgrade from Waller. Moreau is an above average #2 tight end, but would likely be overmatched if forced into a significant role again. Adams, Waller, and Renfrow lead a talented, but top heavy receiving corps.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

While the addition of Davante Adams will obviously help this offense, the Raiders’ biggest weaknesses on offense around Derek Carr last season were their offensive line and, by extension, their running game, with the Raiders ranking 29th in team run blocking grade on PFF and, largely as a result, averaging just 3.91 YPC on the ground, 27th in the NFL. The Raiders also were a below average pass blocking team, ranking 22nd on PFF in team pass blocking grade, something that could hold their passing game back in 2022 if they don’t improve.

The Raiders didn’t do much in the way of finding upgrades this off-season, with limited cap space and no picks in the first two rounds of the draft, as a result of the Adams trade, so it’s likely they’ll continue to struggle upfront. They used a third round pick on Memphis’ Donald Parham and, while he could push to start as a rookie at either guard or center, that says more about the Raiders’ other options than it does about him. 

The only veteran addition they made was Jermaine Eluemanor, a journeyman who has never been much more than a backup in five seasons in the league (14 starts), since entering the league as a 5th round pick in 2017. Eluemanor can play either guard or right tackle and his best play came when he started a career high 8 games for new Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels’ New England Patriots in 2020, but he’s generally been a mediocre player in his limited action and would likely struggle as a season long starter, regardless of what position he plays.

The Raiders also have a pair of young players they are hoping to get more out of this season in Alex Leatherwood and John Simpson. Leatherwood was a first round pick by the Raiders in 2021 and, while he was widely regarded as a reach who was expected to be a second round pick, few expected him to be quite as bad as he was as a rookie, struggling mightily at both right tackle and right guard, with the Raiders changing his position after week 5 in an unsuccessful attempt to get more out of him. 

Leatherwood did start every game as a rookie and he could be better in year two, even if only by default, but his selection looked bad from the start and he’s increasingly looking like he’s going to be a bust. Simpson, meanwhile, was a 4th round selection and finished as PFF’s 74th ranked guard out of 90 eligible in his first full season as a starter (17 starts), after struggling in limited action as a rookie in 2020. Simpson also could take a step forward this season, but 4th round picks don’t pan out as starters that often, so it definitely wouldn’t be a surprise if he didn’t turn into a capable starter long-term. 

Right tackle Brandon Parker was also drafted relatively recently, taken in the 3rd round in 2018, but he’s struggled across 32 career starts and the 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal he signed to stay with the Raiders this off-season doesn’t lock him into a starting role. Parker made 13 starts at right tackle last season after Leatherwood moved inside and actually had the best season of his career, but still finished 81st out of 88 eligible offensive tackles on PFF, which shows you how bad he’s been through most of his career. He would almost definitely continue struggling mightily if he had to start at right tackle again in 2022, running out of time to make good on his upside, now in his age 27 season.

The Raiders also get veteran Denzelle Good back from a torn ACL that cost him all but 17 snaps last season and he was expected to be their starting right guard for the whole season before that happened, but he’s also struggled throughout his career and coming off of a significant injury doesn’t help matters, especially now going into his age 31 season. Good has 43 career starts, but has never been more than a middling starter and as a 14-game starter for the Raiders in 2020 he finished just 64th out of 92 eligible guards on PFF. He would also be an underwhelming starting option.

Center Andre James is likely locked into a starting role, after being the Raiders’ 2nd best offensive lineman last season, but he still only finished 22nd out of 41 eligible centers in his first season as a starter, after the 2019 undrafted free agent struggled mightily in 117 snaps as a backup in his first two seasons in the league. James could potentially face competition from Donald Parham, but, most likely, Parham will compete for the starting guard jobs with John Simpson and Denzelle Good, with Jermaine Eluemanor and Alex Leatherwood also being options at guard, in addition to right tackle, where they would compete with Brandon Parker. All six offensive linemen would likely be below average if forced to start at any of the three open spots and it’s very possible center Andre James will be below average as well.

The Raiders’ only reliable offensive lineman is left tackle Kolton Miller, who saved this offensive line with a strong season in 2021, ranking 8th among offensive tackles on PFF. A first round pick in 2018, Miller’s career got off to a tough start, as he finished his rookie season 81st out of 85 eligible offensive tackles on PFF, but he has improved in every season of his career to get to where he is now. He’s still a one-year wonder as an elite tackle for a whole season, with his next highest finish among offensive tackles on PFF being 34th in 2020, but even if he regresses, Miller should remain at least an above average tackle, on an offensive line otherwise devoid of reliable options.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Raiders struggled on the ground last season. The Raiders were probably expecting their running game to be a strength, given that they invested a 2019 1st round pick in Josh Jacobs and then signed veteran Kenyan Drake to a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season to pair with Jacobs, but Jacobs and Drake were not good enough to overcome poor blocking, averaging just 4.02 YPC and 4.03 YPC respectively. 

Drake was also used pretty sparingly given how much the Raiders signed him for, giving him just 63 carries in 12 games before he went down for the season with injury. He wasn’t even their primary passing down back, as many thought he would be when he signed a significant contract with the Raiders, as he played fewer passing down snaps and saw fewer targets than Jacobs, who has always been an underwhelming pass catcher. Drake was the more efficient of the two in passing situations and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take over more of the passing game work this season, but his career 1.17 yards per route run average is underwhelming and barely better than Jacobs’ career 1.11 yards per route run average. 

Drake does have a career 4.46 YPC average, but he’s unlikely to achieve that mark in 2022 unless the Raiders’ blocking improves. He’s also been at his best in his career as a complementary player, struggling with a 4.00 YPC average in 2020 in the only season of his 6-year career in which he’s surpassed 200 carries. Fortunately, Drake won’t be more than a complementary player behind Josh Jacobs. Jacobs’ didn’t have a good YPC average last season either, but he did finish above average with a 54% carry success rate, with his YPC average being largely the result of a lack of big plays, with just 15.4% of his rushing yardage coming on 7 carries of 15+ yards or more.

Jacobs had largely the same result as 2020, when he had 3.90 YPC, with just 17.6% of his rushing yardage coming on 10 carries of 15+ yards or more, and a 51% carry success rate. Jacobs also had the same 51% carry success rate as a rookie in 2019, but he added 16 runs of 15+ yards or more for 32.3% of his total rushing yardage, leading to a 4.75 YPC average overall. Long runs tend to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and Jacobs’ YPC average will likely be held back by his blocking even if he has more long runs, but it is impressive that he’s consistently kept the offense on schedule at an above average rate in all three seasons of his career, despite declining blocking.

If Jacobs misses significant time with injury, the Raiders would likely give 4th round rookie Zamir White, their likely #3 back, a significant role, rather than overloading Drake as a feature back. White likely won’t have much of a role as long as both Jacobs and Drake are healthy, but he’s an injury away from seeing at least some action and both Jacobs and Drake are in the last year of their contracts, so White will have the opportunity to earn the long-term starting job. For now, Jacobs and Drake headline a solid backfield, albeit one that is likely to again be held back by its blocking.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

With the Raiders’ offense having problems on the offensive line and on the ground, the biggest reason why they made the playoffs last season was their defense, which ranked 8th in efficiency. That was a big change for a defense that had consistently struggled since trading Khalil Mack before the 2018 season. The reasons why they were so much better last season are complicated, as is whether or not they can continue that into 2022, but the biggest reason was the emergence of edge defender Maxx Crosby.

Crosby’s 8 sacks don’t jump off the page and are in line with the 10 sacks and 7 sacks he had in his first two seasons in the league prior in 2019 and 2020 respectively, but in his first two seasons, he combined for just 15 hits and a 9.1% pressure rate, while struggling against the run, leading to overall middling grades from PFF. In 2021, the 2019 4th round pick took a huge step forward, with 21 hits and a ridiculous 16.9% pressure rate, while playing at a much higher level against the run and finishing as PFF’s 2nd ranked edge defender overall. He also played the 4th most snaps in the league by an edge defender with 926, after ranking 5th at the position with 906 snaps played in 2020.

Crosby is a one-year wonder in terms of being an elite edge defender and it’s definitely possible he won’t be quite as good this season as last year’s dominant season, but he’s also still only in his age 25 season and could easily develop into one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come. Even if he does regress a little bit, I would still expect a well above average season from him. The Raiders clearly believe in him long-term, locking him up on a 4-year, 94 million extension deal ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2022, making him now the 5th highest paid edge defender in the NFL in average annual salary. He has a good chance to live up to even that lofty price tag.

The Raiders also gave out a big contract this off-season to ex-Cardinals edge defender Chandler Jones, who comes in as a free agent on a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal. The Raiders signed Yannick Ngakoue to a 2-year, 26 million dollar deal last off-season and he was effective as a pass rusher, with 10 sacks, 13 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate, but he struggled so much against the run that he finished as PFF’s 123rd ranked edge defender out of 129 eligible overall, including a league worst run defense grade for an edge defender. 

Jones is an upgrade at not that much higher of a price and the Raiders were able to flip Ngakoue to the Colts for Rock Ya-Sin, who is inexpensive in the final year of his rookie deal and figures to start at cornerback in 2022. I’ll get into Ya-Sin more in the secondary section, but Jones gives the Raiders someone who is as effective as Ngakoue as a pass rusher, while also holding up as a run defender. In total, Jones has 107.5 sacks, 97 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 10 seasons in the league, while also playing among the most snaps in the league on an annual basis like Crosby, playing 60.6 snaps per game in his career, with 14 games or more played in 8 of 10 seasons in the league. 

Jones is going into his age 32 season and could start to decline soon, but he hasn’t shown many signs of decline yet, having double digit sacks in a season for the 7th time in his career last season and finishing as PFF’s 34th ranked edge defender overall. Even if Jones does decline, he should remain at least an above average option, especially if the Raiders scale his snaps back a little bit, something they can afford to do, given how infrequently Crosby comes off the field.

The Raiders also released the highly paid Carl Nassib this off-season, saving 8 million ahead of the final year of his 3-year, 25 million dollar contract. Nassib isn’t a bad player, but only saw 251 snaps in 13 games as a reserve last season, so moving on from him was an easy decision, with a replacement veteran like Kyler Fackrell available at a much cheaper price, 1.1875 million on a 1-year deal. Fackrell has never been more than a middling player and has just a 9.2% career pressure rate, but he’s generally been a solid rotational reserve option and, even going into his age 31 season, he could still be a solid reserve in a relatively small role.

The Raiders also have 2021 3rd round pick Malcolm Kounce, who played just 48 snaps as a rookie, but could take a step forward in his second season. Clelil Ferrell played a little bit of a role at the edge defender position last season with 261 snaps, but he struggled mightily and has proven to be a bust since being selected 4th overall by the Raiders in 2019, as he’s averaged just 457 snaps per season and a 9.5% pressure rate in three seasons in the league. He’s not guaranteed much, if any role this season, with Fackrell and Kounce possibly both ahead of him on the depth chart as a reserve. Ferrell played on the interior a little bit in the past and might find an easier path to playing time there, as the Raiders have a strong edge defender position, led by Crosby and Jones.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Unlike their edge defender position, the Raiders’ interior defender position was a major position of weakness last season, with every player who saw significant action at the position finishing below average on PFF. The Raiders overhauled this position group this off-season, with only veteran Johnathan Hankins (568 snaps) returning from last year’s group. However, most of their additions are very underwhelming, so roles are definitely up for grabs in this group, which is part of why Clelin Ferrell might find more playing time available on the interior, where he’s shown at least some promise in the past, as opposed to his struggles on the edge.

Hankins will likely remain in a significant role, but he struggled mightily last season, finishing 120th out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF, and now the 9-year veteran heads into his age 30 season, so his best days could easily be behind him. Hankins has never been much of a pass rusher, with a 5.5% career pressure rate, but that has fallen to 4.2% over the past four seasons and even his run defense has fallen off in recent years, after he was one of the best in the league at his position against the run earlier in his career. He might not be quite as bad in 2022 as he was in 2021, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he was just as bad and the Raiders should consider it a win if he even is a capable starter for them this season.

Bilal Nichols was the best of the Raiders’ free agent signings and, while he was the most expensive, he was reasonably paid on a 2-year, 8.625 million dollar deal. A 5th round pick by the Bears in 2018, Nichols has developed into a solid starter, seeing snap counts of 618 and 679 over the past two seasons and proving capable as a pass rusher and run stopper. Nichols wasn’t quite as good in 2021 as he was in 2020, when he finished 27th among interior defenders on PFF in overall grade and totaled 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher, but he still finished above average on PFF and had 3 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.3% pressure rate. Still only in his age 26 season, Nichols may have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid starter in his new home.

The rest of the Raiders’ free agent additions at the position all signed deals close to the minimum, most notably Tyler Lancaster, Vernon Butler, and Andrew Billings, who come to the Raiders from the Packers, Bills, and Browns respectively. None are inspiring options, which is why they came so cheaply. Lancaster has been a decent run stopper in four seasons as a reserve in Green Bay, after signing there as an undrafted free agent in 2018, but he never played more than 381 snaps in a season, struggled mightily as a pass rusher (3.3% pressure rate), and is coming off of a career worst year as a run stopper.

Butler also has mostly been a reserve in his career, maxing out at 440 snaps in 2019 and only playing 285 snaps last season, despite being a first round pick back in 2016. He’s never shown himself to be worth more playing time, finishing below average on PFF in all but one season in the league and now he’s coming off arguably the worst season of his career, finishing 144th among 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF in 2021. Even if he bounces back a little in 2022, he’s unlikely to be anything more than a decent reserve.

Billings probably has the most upside of the bunch, because he earned above average grades from PFF in 2018 and 2019 as a starter with the Bengals, on snap counts of 632 and 657 respectively, holding up as a run defender and totaling 3.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher between the two seasons. Billings sat out the 2020 season though and was not nearly the same upon his return in 2021, struggling to get on the field in a weak position group with the Browns and looking like a shell of his former self on the 72 snaps he did play. 

Billings is still only in his age 27 season, so there is some bounce back potential here, but he’s nothing more than a flyer for a team desperate for talent at the interior defender position. Given their lack of good veteran options, the Raiders may have to turn to 4th round rookie Neil Farrell or 5th round rookie Matthew Butler, but both would likely struggle if forced into a significant role in year one. This figures to be a position of weakness once again in 2022, even if the personnel is very different than a year ago.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Raiders’ off ball linebackers were somewhat of a strength last season. They didn’t have any great performances at the position, but three of the four players who saw significant snaps at the position for them last season finished in the 65th percentile or higher of off ball linebackers on PFF, with Denzel Perryman (863 snaps), KJ Wright (426 snaps), and Divine Deablo (297 snaps) finishing 33rd, 29th, and 31st among eligible players at the position. The only one who didn’t, Cory Littleton (663 snaps), is no longer with the team, but Wright is also gone, so the Raiders had to retool this group a little bit this off-season. Their best addition to the group is ex-Titan Jayon Brown, who figures to be a starter and possibly play every down. 

Brown was very inexpensive on a 1-year, 1.25 million dollar, after finishing just 57th among 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF last season on 421 snaps in 10 games. He was an above average starter in every season from 2018-2020 though, maxing out at 8th among off ball linebackers on PFF in 2018 and finishing 24th as recently as 2020, and he’s still only in his age 27 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential and could easily prove to be a free agent steal. Durability has been a concern for Brown for years, as he’s missed 17 games total over the past three seasons, and there is some concern that either he will miss more time or that injuries have permanently sapped his abilities and he won’t be able to bounce back, but his age and the recency of his last above average season give him a strong chance to return to form at least somewhat.

Perryman figures to be the other starter, after showing well in that role last season. He’s a one-year wonder as an every down player though, as a combination of injury problems (27 games missed in his first six seasons in the league) and his deficiencies in coverage limited him to a max of just 481 snaps in a season across his first six seasons in the league from 2015-2020, despite originally entering the league as a second round pick. Perryman has always been a solid run stopper and was better in coverage last season, but he now heads into his age 30 season, so it’s fair to wonder if he can repeat last season’s performance, or if his problems in coverage will return, once again in a big role. Durability also remains a concern, as he missed another 2 games last season, even while playing a career high 15 games.

Fortunately, the Raiders have good depth at the position, with Deablo expected to open the season as the third linebacker, after flashing a lot of potential in a limited role as a third round rookie last season. Perryman and Brown both have the potential to be solid every down players, but they’re also shaky options with serious injury histories, so Deablo is great insurance to have and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he found himself in the starting lineup one way or another by the end of the season. 

The Raiders also added veterans Micah Kiser and Kenny Young in free agency this off-season, but I wouldn’t expect either to have much of a role, barring a rash of injuries. Kiser played a significant role in 2020 with the Rams (559 snaps), but struggled mightily, finishing 92nd out of 99 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF and was limited to just defensive 98 snaps in 2021. Kiser was a 5th round pick in 2018, but, aside from his terrible 2020 campaign, he’s played just 99 other defensive snaps in his career. 

Young has more experience, but the 2018 4th round pick has finished below average on PFF in all four seasons in the league, including a 59th ranked finish out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on a career high 645 snaps last season. Even still, last season might have been the best season of Young’s career, which should tell you how bad he’s been in other seasons. There are some questions at the top of this linebacker group, but their three best linebackers all have the upside to be above average starters and they have some experienced depth as well.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position where the Raiders figure to see the most decline on defense this season is cornerback. I mentioned they traded Yannick Ngakoue for Rock Ya-Sin and that he will likely start at cornerback. Ya-Sin was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and has shown some promise in three seasons in the league, albeit as more of a reserve than a regular starter, starting 29 of the 41 games he played in his career and finishing above average on PFF in two of his three seasons in the league, including a career best 29th ranked finish on 592 snaps in 2021. It’s better for the Raiders to have Ya-Sin at a 2.54 million dollar salary in the final year of his rookie deal than Ngakoue at 13 million in the final year of his contract, but Ya-Sin is effectively replacing Casey Hayward, who was PFF’s 16th ranked cornerback last season, while making all 17 starts, and Ya-Sin will almost definitely be a significant downgrade from Hayward.

Slot cornerback Nate Hobbs also had a strong season last year, finishing 11th among cornerbacks on PFF on 837 snaps, with 83.8% of those snaps coming on the slot, where he allowed just 0.78 yards per route run, 4th best in the NFL. It’s fair to wonder if he can be that good again though, given that he was just a 5th round pick a year ago. It’s possible he could develop into consistently one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league, but the fact that most of the league passed on him 4-5 times a year ago isn’t irrelevant yet. If he declines significantly, along with Ya-Sin being a downgrade from Hayward, this cornerback group would go from a significant strength to a much more underwhelming group. Hobbs is also likely a slot only option and not a strong candidate to play a significant role outside.

The Raiders do get Trayvon Mullen back from injury after he missed all but 229 snaps in five games last season, but the 2019 2nd round pick has been underwhelming in his career, including a 89th ranked finish out of 136 eligible cornerbacks in 2020 in his lone full season as a starter. He may still have untapped potential, only in his age 25 season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he didn’t improve. He should be an upgrade on his backup last season Brandon Facyson though, even if only by default, as Facyson was PFF’s 120th ranked cornerback out of 134 eligible in nine starts in 2021 as an injury fill-in for Mullen.

If injuries strike again this season, the Raiders have veteran Anthony Averett as their 4th cornerback, signing him from the Ravens this off-season. Averett struggled in the first extended starting experience of his career last season though, making 14 starts after making 7 starts in the first three seasons in the league and finishing as PFF’s 107th ranked cornerback out of 134 eligible. He would be an underwhelming option if he had to see significant action, so the Raiders need Mullen to stay healthy as the other starting outside cornerback opposite Ya-Sin, with Hobbs as the slot cornerback.

Like Nate Hobbs, fellow 2021 draft pick safety Trevon Moehrig was a big part of the reason for the Raiders’ success in the secondary last season, finishing 24th among safeties on PFF and, unlike Hobbs, Moehrig was a high draft pick, going 43rd overall in the 2nd round, so he has a much better chance of continuing his high level of play going forward. Development isn’t always linear and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had a little bit of a sophomore slump, but he looks likely to develop into consistently one of the better safeties in the league long-term. He’s probably their best defensive back now that Hayward is no longer on the team. 

Johnathan Abram is likely to remain as the other starting safety, even though he was a liability in 14 starts in 2021, finishing 79th out of 98 eligible safeties on PFF. Abram was a first round pick in 2019, but last season was actually by far the best season of his career, even though he struggled, which should tell you how much he struggled in his first two seasons. He also played more snaps in 2021 than he did in his first two seasons in the league combined, playing 955 snaps, after playing 904 total from 2019 to 2020. He still missed three games last season, but that’s nothing compared to the 18 games combined he missed in his first two seasons in the league. 

Abram still theoretically has upside, in his age 26 season, but his career so far has been filled with injuries and struggles and it would be a surprise if he was even able to be a consistently solid starter for most of the season without getting hurt. He’ll likely keep his job in 2022, but that’s mostly for lack of a better option and he could be on a short leash if he regresses to his 2020 form, when he finished dead last out of 99 eligible safeties on PFF.

Abram’s biggest competition for the starting job is veteran Duron Harmon, who was signed to a near minimum contract as a free agent this off-season. Harmon is plenty experienced, with 62 starts in 144 games in 9 seasons in the league, while missing only one game ever. Harmon has made every start over the past two seasons, first for the Lions in 2020 and then in 2021, but he was underwhelming in 2020 and then struggled mightily in 2021, finishing 77th out of 98 eligible safeties. 

Now going into his age 31 season, it’s unlikely Harmon is going to bounce back significantly, but it’s possible he could be a capable starter if needed and he’s not a bad backup option. The Raiders also have 2021 4th round pick Tyree Gillespie, but he played just 11 snaps as a rookie, so he would obviously be a projection to a larger role. This isn’t a bad secondary, but, with Casey Hayward gone and Nate Hobbs a regression candidate, this is unlikely to be nearly as good as last year’s group, especially if either of their starting safeties can’t repeat what they did last season.

Grade: B

Special Teams

The Raiders had slightly below average special teams last season, ranking 21st in special teams DVOA. Kicker Daniel Carlson and punter AJ Cole both had above average seasons again, but their return game was underwhelming, especially in kickoff return, ranking 25th in the NFL with 19.8 yards per kickoff return, and they lacked special teams depth outside of their two top special teamers, Foster Moreau and Divine Deablo. Their depth should be somewhat better this season and, though they could still struggle in the return game, this could end up being an average special teams unit overall.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Raiders made two splash additions this off-season with Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, but those moves left them limited in what else they could do this off-season, leaving needs largely unaddressed on the offensive line and at the interior defender and safety positions, while not adequately replacing their departed top cornerback Casey Hayward. This was a playoff team a year ago and they have a chance to make it back in 2022, but they play in the tougher of the two conferences in the toughest division in football, so it’s very possible they could end up on the outside looking in at the end of the season. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Raiders will compete for a playoff spot even in the loaded AFC, but ultimately they’re likely to be on the outside looking in, especially when you consider they have to play six games in the toughest division in football, with all three other AFC West teams looking better than them right now.

Prediction: 8-9, 4th in AFC West

Detroit Lions 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Quarterback

Last off-season, after years of mediocrity and four straight playoff absences, the Lions were forced to start a rebuild, when long-time franchise quarterback Matt Stafford requested a trade, after 12 seasons and no playoff wins with the team he joined as the #1 overall pick in 2009. The Lions had offers that included first round picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, including the Panthers’ 8th overall pick and the 19th overall pick and a third round pick from Washington. 

Had they accepted either one of those trades, the Lions could have used their own first round pick, 7th overall, to select a quarterback of the future in one of the better quarterback classes in recent memory, with both Justin Fields and Mac Jones available to them at that slot. That would have given them a potential franchise quarterback on a cheap contract long-term, which would have been a great start to their rebuild, along with the extra draft picks they would have acquired for Stafford. 

Instead, they opted to trade Stafford to the Rams for a package that included two first round picks, as well as a third round pick, which is more draft compensation than Washington or Carolina were offering, but it’s not as simple as that. The picks the Rams were offering were in 2022 and 2023, rather than 2021, and draft picks are usually valued equal to a round lower if they are a year in the future, meaning that in real terms the Lions only got a second round pick and two third round picks for Stafford.

On top of that, the trade required the Lions to take back Rams starting quarterback Jared Goff, which should have been a negative value, as acquiring him locked them into paying the mediocre starting quarterback 51.8 million for 2021 and 2022, rather than getting to use their first round pick to select a cheaper quarterback. Deciding to go with the Rams’ offer prolonged the Lions rebuild, unable to turn to a cheap, young starting quarterback until 2023. That does line up with when they’ll have used the two first round picks by and when the Lions will have more cap space available in free agency, but the Lions basically locked themselves into two bad years in 2021 and 2022 in the meantime, at the very least.

The first year went about as expected, with the Lions ranking 21st in offensive efficiency, 30th in defensive efficiency, and 27th in overall efficiency, while finishing with the 2nd worst record in the league at 3-13-1. That got them the #2 overall pick in the draft, but the Rams ended up winning the Super Bowl in Stafford’s first season with the team, pushing their draft pick to 32. This wasn’t a good quarterback draft anyway so it’s not a huge deal that they’re stuck with Goff for another season, as they would not have been able to find an upgrade in this year’s draft, but it was surprising they didn’t add a single quarterback in the draft, with backups Tim Boyle and David Blough being among the most underwhelming in the league.

Boyle was the backup last season and the 2018 undrafted free agent made the first three starts of his career, but he was a major liability, completing 64.9% of his passes for an average of 5.60 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, after having only attempted four passes in his career prior to last season. Blough, on the other hand, didn’t attempt a pass last season as the 3rd quarterback, but he did start 5 games and attempt 184 passes as Matt Stafford’s backup in 2019-2020 and, like Boyle, the 2019 undrafted free agent Blough also struggled mightily, completing 54.3% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Whoever wins the backup job in 2022 would almost definitely be a big liability if forced into significant action.

Given their backup quarterback situation, it would have made sense for the Lions to take a quarterback in this past draft, at least at some point, as a developmental backup option who could potentially push to start in 2023, when the guaranteed money on Goff’s contract runs out. Instead, the Lions will bring back the same quarterbacks for another year, clearly with an eye on taking their quarterback of the future with a high pick in a much better quarterback draft next year. 

Goff wasn’t horrible in his first season in Detroit, but did not show himself to be a franchise caliber quarterback long-term, especially not one who is worth the kind of money he gets paid. In total, Goff completed 67.2% of his passes for an average of 6.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while finishing as PFF’s 31st ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible. That was his worst PFF grade since his rookie season in 2016, but that’s not surprising, given that it was his first season since his rookie season without offensive mastermind Sean McVay as his head coach. 

Goff completed 64.3% of his passes for an average of 7.71 YPA, 102 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in 62 starts in four seasons on the Rams with McVay, but he benefited from great talent and coaching around him and it’s not surprising that the Rams were able to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl in their first season after upgrading on him with Stafford. Goff might get better play around him this season, which would make this team more competitive, but it’s hard to see them being a real playoff contender this season, still early in their rebuild, having not yet found their long-term quarterback.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

One reason to expect better play from the Lions’ supporting cast this season is they should be healthier, after having the third most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league in 2021. No unit on this team was more affected by injuries than the Lions’ offensive line, with none of their expected starters playing every game and arguably their top most important offensive linemen, left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow, being limited to just nine starts and four starts respectively. This season, the Lions’ brought back their entire expected starting five from last season and, if they can stay relatively healthy, this offensive line has a good chance to be an above average unit.

With Decker and Ragnow missing significant time, Penei Sewell was their most important offensive lineman last season. Sewell was selected with the 7th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the pick that the Lions opted not to use on a quarterback, and, while the Lions could have had Sewell and a quarterback if they had sent Stafford to Carolina for the 8th pick, it’s hard to argue that the Lions made a bad selection with Sewell, after a rookie season in which he was PFF’s 25th offensive tackle. 

Sewell began the season at left tackle with Decker missing the first 8 games of the season and then moved to the right side upon Decker’s return in week 10. Sewell will stay at right tackle in 2022 with Decker returning, which should be a good thing for his development, as he was PFF’s 8th ranked offensive tackle from week 10 on, after moving from the left side. Not even 22 until October, Sewell has a sky high upside and could easily develop into one of the best right tackles in the league for years to come, while also having the versatility to play on the left side if needed.

Decker still played like he usually does when he was in the lineup last season and he should have no problem returning to form and locking down the left tackle position in 2022, still in his prime in his age 29 season, having played in every game in 4 of 6 seasons in the league, since being selected 16th overall by the Lions in 2016. In his 4 healthy seasons, Decker has finished 16th, 37th, 17th, and 11th among offensive tackles on PFF and he was PFF’s 24th ranked offensive tackle from week 10 on last season. Barring another significant injury, he should be somewhere in that range again in 2022. He’ll be an obvious upgrade on Matt Nelson, a 2019 undrafted free agent who struggled mightily at right tackle when Decker was hurt, ranking 85th out of 88 eligible offensive tackles in the first significant action of his career in 2021.

Ragnow is also a former first round pick, selected 20th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He spent his rookie year as the starter at left guard and was not bad, finishing 33rd among guards on PFF in 16 starts, but he excelled when he moved to center in year two, finishing the 2019 season as PFF’s 6th ranked center in 15 starts and then finishing 2020 as PFF’s 2nd ranked center in 14 starts. As a result of his high level of play in 2019 and 2020, the Lions gave Ragnow a 4-year, 54 million dollar extension last off-season.

That extension made Ragnow the highest paid center in the league in average annual salary, and he was off to arguably the best start of his career before getting injured, ranking #1 among centers on PFF through the first four weeks of the season. Only in his age 26 season, without a significant injury history, Ragnow has a great chance to bounce back in 2022 and could even have the best season of his career if he continues his dominant play from the start of last season. In addition to being a dominant center, Ragnow could also move to guard in a pinch if needed, though he probably wouldn’t be quite as good there.

At guard, Jonah Jackson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai return as the starters on the left side and the right side respectively, after starting 16 games and 15 games respectively in 2021 and finishing above average on PFF. For Jackson, his 24th ranked finish among guards on PFF was a big step forward from his underwhelming rookie season, when the 2020 3rd round pick finished 63rd out of 92 eligible guards on PFF. He’s unproven and could regress a little in 2022, but he also could have permanently turned the corner as a player and, in that case, will remain an above average starter going forward, possibly one with further untapped upside.

Vaitai, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran heading into his 3rd season with the Lions, after signing a 5-year, 45 million dollar contract two off-seasons ago. It was a surprising amount of money, considering the 2016 5th round pick had only made 20 starts in four seasons with the Eagles as a reserve, with just 4 of those starts coming in the previous two seasons. Vaitai had shown some promise on occasion in his limited action, but finished 72nd out of 92 eligible offensive tackles on PFF in 2017 in his longest stretch as a starter to that point in his career, so he didn’t seem like someone who would command above average starter money in free agency.

Vaitai was underwhelming in 450 snaps in his first season in Detroit in 2020, seeing action at both tackle and guard, and he looked like he would be a free agent bust. However, he was significantly better as a full-time guard in 2021, finishing 32nd among guards on PFF, leading to the Lions keeping him for 2022 at a non-guaranteed 7 million dollar salary, without a better option available. He’s still entering something of a make or break 2022 season, owed 9.5 million non-guaranteed in 2023, and he could easily struggle, given his history of inconsistency, in which case he would likely be let go after the season. He’s probably the weak point on what has the potential to be a strong offensive line, even if Vaitai does regress a little.

Depth is a bit of a concern for this group though. I mentioned that swing tackle Matt Nelson struggled mightily when forced into action last season. The same was true of backup guard Tommy Kraemer, who was forced into 238 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2021 and would likely struggle if forced back into action in year two. Their best reserve is backup center Evan Brown, a 2018 undrafted free agent who held up pretty well in the first 12 starts of his career in place of Ragnow last season, finishing 18th among centers on PFF, slightly above average. The Lions are obviously hoping he doesn’t have to see significant action again though, especially since this group has a lot of upside and talent if the starters stay relatively healthy.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Lions’ receiving corps was their biggest weakness on offense last season by far and injuries weren’t even the problem, as they entered the season with arguably the least talented group of wide receivers of any team in the league. As a result, a 5th round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown was able to lead this group with a 90/912/5 slash line and 1.74 yards per route run. St. Brown didn’t just lead this group by default either, finishing the season as PFF’s 17th ranked wide receiver. It’s a bit concerning that the whole league let St. Brown fall to the 5th round just a year ago and he might not have real #1 wide receiver upside long-term, but he has a good chance to remain at least a useful complementary receiver going forward.

The Lions built out the rest of this receiving corps around St. Brown this off-season, signing ex-Jaguar DJ Chark in free agency and trading up with their first round pick from the Rams to select Alabama’s Jameson Williams, so St. Brown will likely see a smaller target share this season, but he could also be more efficient on a per play basis if he’s no longer the focus of opposing defenses, with more talent around him. Williams and Chark will likely be the starters in three wide receiver sets with St. Brown, but both are also coming off of significant injuries, so they come with some questions. 

That’s especially true of Williams, who tore his ACL in the college football playoff. If not for the injury, he likely would have been a top-10 lock and the first wide receiver off the board, but even if he’s on the field week 1, he might not be 100% right away and he could easily be behind the eight ball as a rookie, likely to miss most or all of the off-season program. He has the upside to be a long-term #1 receiver and one of the best wide receivers in the league, but he’s unlikely to show that in year one.

Chark, meanwhile, is coming off of a fractured ankle that ended his 2021 season after four games. The injury was early enough in the season that it’s unlikely to affect him into 2022 and he has 1,000 yard season on his resume, but he only averaged 1.69 yards per route run in that 1,000 yard season in 2019 (73/1008/8), achieving those numbers in large part due to volume. Even that is better than the middling 1.49 yards per route run that he has averaged in his career. He also only finished 27th among wide receivers on PFF in overall grade in 2019 and that is still the best finish of his career. 

Chark is a 2018 2nd round pick with a lot of talent, who is still only going into his age 26 season, so he comes with some upside and wasn’t a bad signing for the Lions on a relatively cheap 1-year, 10 million dollar deal, but he’s more of a #2 receiver than a #1 receiver. Kalif Raymond was the de facto #2 wide receiver last season, finishing 2nd among Lions wide receivers with a 48/576/4 slash line, but he averaged just 1.23 yards per route run and finished below average on PFF. He also had just 19 catches in 5 seasons in the league prior to last season, as primarily a special teams player. In a much deeper position group in 2022, Raymond is unlikely to have much, if any role.

Quintez Cephus and Josh Reynolds only played 5 games and 7 games respectively for the Lions last season, but they weren’t bad, with averages of 1.57 yards per route run and 1.55 yards per route run, leading to slash lines of 15/204/2 and 19/306/2 respectively in their limited action. They’ll compete for the #4 receiver job in 2022, meaning they could see significant action early in the season depending on Jameson Williams’ readiness. 


Cephus is a 2020 5th round pick who began last season as a starter after flashing on limited action as a rookie (1.62 yards per route run, 20/349/2) and he was off to a solid start to the 2021 season, but he went down for the year with a shoulder injury after week 5. He doesn’t have a clear role right now, but could play his way into playing time and, still only in his age 24 season, could still develop into a starter long-term. Reynolds, on the other hand, ended last season as a starter for the Lions, starting the final six games of the season after joining as a mid-season signing, following his release by the Titans. 

Reynolds was a disappointment in his lone season in Tennessee, averaging 1.14 yards per route run and getting released after week 8, but he wasn’t terrible in three seasons as a #3/#4 receiver with Jared Goff and the Rams from 2018-2020, averaging 1.25 yards per route run. Drafted in the 4th round by the Rams in 2017, Reynolds seems to at least have decent chemistry with Jared Goff and, while he would be an underwhelming starting option, he’s a decent #4 option and would give them especially good depth as the #5 receiver if the promising Cephus wins the #4 receiver job. This is a much deeper wide receiver group than a year ago.

Tight end TJ Hockenson was expected to be the focus of the passing game last season and, while St. Brown’s emergence took away some targets as an underneath option, he still was a good receiving tight end for them until he went down for the year in week 13, posting a 61/583/4 slash line in 12 games, which extrapolates to 86/826/6 over a full 17 games. Selected 8th overall by the Lions in 2019, Hockenson also had a 67/723/6 slash line in 16 games in 2020 and has averaged 1.53 yards per route run over the past two seasons combined. He has struggled at times as a blocker, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and has the upside to get better, both as a blocker and a receiver. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had a career best receiving total, even with the Lions having more wide receiver talent this season.

Brock Wright took over as the starting tight end down the stretch last season when Hockenson was out and the undrafted rookie predictably struggled, finishing 57th out of 63 eligible tight ends on PFF across 305 snaps. Wright could open the 2022 season as the #2 tight end and he could be a little bit better, but he could also be pushed for his job by raw 5th round rookie James Mitchell and, even if Wright keeps the job, he’s unlikely to be used as more than just a blocking tight end. The Lions also won’t need to run many two tight end sets this season, given their depth at the wide receiver position. They might lack a true #1 wide receiver, but this is a deep group overall with some promising young players.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Lacking talent in the receiving corps, Jared Goff frequently checked down to his running back last season, with 24.1% of the team’s targets going to running backs, the majority going to their primary passing down back D’Andre Swift, whose 78 targets were 3rd on the team behind St. Brown and Hockenson. Running back check downs tend to be low yardage plays and, unsurprisingly, the Lions averaged just 5.59 yards per pass attempt on throws to running backs, with even Swift averaging just 5.79 yards per target. A 2nd round pick by the Lions in 2020, Swift is a talented receiving back, but his career 1.48 yards per route run is underwhelming compared to what a good wide receiver would average, so the Lions are unlikely to target him in the passing game quite as much this season, with more downfield options available. 

Their other primary running back Jamaal Williams is not as good of a receiver (1.13 yards per route run in his career) and only received 28 targets last season, but he was a much better pass blocker than Swift, who struggled in that aspect, and Williams was also the better runner as well. Swift and Williams both saw pretty even carry totals, seeing 151 carries and 153 carries respectively, with both backs also missing four games each with injury, and Swift actually had a slightly better yards per carry average with 4.09, as compared to 3.93 for Williams, but Swift ran in more favorable situations and Williams was significantly better in carry success rate, ranking 18th at 54%, while Swift was dead last among 50 running backs at 36%.

Williams’ yards per carry average was low because he only had two carries for 15 yards or more, going for just 39 yards total, which has always been a problem for him, with just 11 carries of 15 yards or more across 500 total attempts in the first four seasons of his career from 2019-2020. Williams still averaged 4.30 YPC and 4.24 YPC respectively in 2019 and 2020 though despite his lack of long runs, ranking 7th and 6th respectively among running backs with carry success rates of 53% and 57% respectively.

Williams was playing on a much better Packers offense in 2019 and 2020, but he showed the ability to consistently keep the inferior Lions offense on schedule at an above average rate last season as well and he should be able to continue that this season, likely at a higher rate with a higher YPC, on what should be overall a better offense. Williams might not do much on passing downs, but he’s a useful early down runner to have and would take on close to an every down role if Swift missed time with injury again (7 games missed in his first two seasons in the league). 

Swift had a better year as a runner as a rookie in 2020, ranking 16th in carry success rate at 54% and averaging 4.57 YPC, and he has the potential to be a better runner in 2022, even if he’s still likely to split carries with Williams. With Williams and Swift both missing time last season, backups Godwin Igwebuike, Craig Reynolds, and Jermar Jefferson all saw some action and they all were pretty good, averaging 6.56 YPC on 18 carries, 4.18 YPC on 55 carries, and 4.93 YPC on 15 carries respectively. 

Igwebuike and Reynolds are both former undrafted free agents, in 2018 and 2019 respectively, who both just saw the first carries of their careers last season, while Jefferson was just a 7th round rookie a year ago, so they’re very unproven, but they’re good depth to have, with the three of them expected to compete for the #3 running back job. This isn’t a great backfield, but they’re not bad and they have good depth.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Lions weren’t horrible on offense last season and should be at least somewhat better on that side of the ball this season, with their offensive line expected to be healthier and their receiving corps being more talented, but the Lions’ biggest weakness last season was their defense and they’ll need to be significantly improved on that side of the ball if they are going to be remotely competitive this season. The Lions didn’t make any big free agent additions to their defense this off-season and are unlikely to be improved enough for them to seriously compete to make the post-season, but there are still some reasons to be optimistic that the Lions can at least be somewhat better on this side of the ball as well, even if only by default.

For starters, they used their 2nd overall pick on edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, an NFL ready player who many considered the best prospect in the draft. Hutchinson doesn’t have a huge ceiling and probably would go outside of the top-5 most years, but he still has the potential to have a big impact in year one and ultimately to develop into a consistently above average starter long-term. The Lions also used a 2nd round pick on another edge defender Josh Paschal, but he’s much less certain to make a big impact in as a rookie. He could carve out a rotational role, but Hutchinson should be locked into something at least resembling a starter’s snap count and has a good chance to lead this position group in snaps played.

The Lions also get Romeo Okwara back from a torn achilles that ended his 2021 season after four games, a big re-addition, given that he led this team with 10 sacks in 2020, while adding 9 hits and a 14.4% pressure rate, leading to the Lions re-signing him to a 3-year, 37 million dollar deal in free agency. Okwara is not an effective run defender and he’s a one-year wonder in terms of being a double digit sack producer, but he totaled 19 sacks, 24 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 45 games in his three seasons from 2018-2020, prior to his injury, so, if he can be at least close to 100% in 2022, he should be at least a solid starter, still only in his age 27 season. It’s concerning that he’s coming off such a serious injury, but he will be close to a year removed from it by week 1, which gives him a better chance of returning to form in his first season back.

Charles Harris led this position group with 871 snaps last season and, while he figures to have a much smaller role in 2022, with Hutchinson and Paschal coming and Okwara returning, Harris actually played pretty well last season and was brought back as a free agent on a contract worth 13 million over 2 years, so he’ll continue having a significant role. Harris especially fared well as a pass rusher last season, leading the team with 7.5 sacks and adding 8 hits and a 11.6% pressure rate.

It’s the kind of play that the Dolphins were envisioning for Harris when they drafted him in the first round in 2017, but he didn’t show much in three seasons in Miami, nor did he in his lone season in Atlanta in 2020, before breaking out in his first season in Detroit in 2021. In total, Harris had just 6.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 54 career games prior to last season, so he’s a complete one-year wonder and could easily regress, but he should benefit from playing fewer snaps and it’s very possible that the talented first round pick is a late bloomer who has permanently turned a corner and will remain at least an above average rotational player, still only going into his age 27 season.

Aside from Harris and the limited action Okwara played before his injury, most of the edge defenders who played for the Lions last season were underwhelming at best, but 2020 3rd round pick Julian Okwara, Romeo’s younger brother, showed promise on 361 snaps, especially flashing talent as a pass rusher, with a 12.1% pressure rate. He’s still very inexperienced, only playing 69 underwhelming snaps as a rookie before last year’s limited role, but he could easily continue being effective in a rotational role and he has the upside to develop into more than a rotational player long-term. The Lions lack a top level edge defender, but have a deep group with some promising young players, led by #2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a big weakness for the Lions last season and, unlike the edge defender position, the Lions don’t have any key off-season additions or players returning from injury on the interior. Nick Williams, who was awful last season as the team’s leader in snaps played by an interior defender, is no longer with the team, after he finished 103rd out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF, and that is addition by subtraction, but, aside from that, the Lions are just hoping for more out of second year players Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeil, who they selected in the second and third round respectively last season.

Both were only rotational players as rookies last season and they saw similar snap counts, but McNeil actually played slightly more (422 vs. 396) and was the significantly better of the two overall, finishing in the 54th percentile among interior defenders on PFF, while Onwuzurike finished in the 9th percentile, despite his higher draft status. Onwuzurike especially struggled as a pass rusher, with a 1.6% pressure rate, as opposed to 5.5% for McNeil, who was also the better run defender. Both still have the upside to develop into starters long-term and both are likely to get a chance to play significantly more snaps this season, but McNeil seems like the more likely of the two to do so.

The Lions are also hoping for a bounce back year from veteran Michael Brockers, which they could get, but that’s far from a guarantee, given that Brockers is going into his age 32 season. A first round pick in 2012, Brockers finished average or better on PFF in each of his first 9 seasons in the league prior to last season, not playing at a high level as a pass rusher, but consistently being above average against the run. However, Brockers struggled in both aspects last season, finishing 137th out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF in overall grade across 622 snaps. He could bounce back a little bit in 2022, but it’s also possible last season was the beginning of the end for him and, either way, his best days are almost definitely behind him. 

The Lions don’t have much depth behind Onwuzurike, McNeil, and Brockers, so they’ll likely have to turn to John Penisini as a reserve again, even though he’s struggled mightily in that role, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2020. He was forced into 576 snaps as a rookie, finishing 130th out of 139 eligible interior defenders, but he wasn’t much better in a smaller snap count in 2021, when he played just 276 snaps total. The Lions would probably prefer him closer to that number in 2022, but this isn’t a deep position as it is, so if injuries strike, Penisini would likely be forced into a larger role. This position is still a big weakness.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Linebacker was also a big position of weakness last season and it could be an even bigger weakness in 2022, with Jalen Maybin-Reeves, their best linebacker by far last season, no longer with the team. Maybin-Reeves was only a middling player across 615 snaps, but he was still significantly better than Alex Anzalone (827 snaps) and Derrick Barnes (448 snaps), who finished 87th and 92nd respectively out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF last season and who could easily be their top-2 off ball linebackers in 2022.

Anzalone played better in the first four seasons of his career with the Saints, prior to joining the Lions last off-season, but he never played more than 525 snaps in a season in New Orleans, missing most of the 2017 and 2019 season with injury and only being a part-time player in his healthy seasons in 2018 and 2020. He might be better in a smaller role in 2022, but the Lions might not have a choice except to play him in a significant role again and he could easily struggle again, even if he may have a little bit of bounce back potential and could be better, even if only by default. Barnes, meanwhile, was a 4th round rookie last season and could take a step forward in year two, but there is no guarantee he ever develops into a capable starter.

The Lions signed veteran Jarrad Davis in free agency to give them some depth at the position and he could compete for a significant role, given their lack of other options. This is a homecoming for Davis, who spent the first four seasons of his career in Detroit, before spending a single season with the Jets in 2021. Davis’ year with the Jets was a disaster though, as he missed the first half of the season with injury and was awful upon his return, finishing dead last among off ball linebackers on PFF across 209 snaps.

Davis was a lot better in 2020 in his final season in Detroit, finishing 30th among off ball linebackers on PFF, but that was only on a snap count of 329 and, as an every down linebacker in the first three seasons of his career, Davis struggled mightily, proving to be a bust as a 2017 1st round pick. Davis could be a good part-time linebacker this season, but even that isn’t a guarantee he would almost definitely struggle if forced into a significant role, which could easily be the case, given how thin this position group is. Sixth round rookie Malcolm Rodriguez could also push for snaps at some point, especially if the Lions want to give their young players action down the stretch in an otherwise lost season.

Grade: C-

Secondary

The Lions also had a lot of problems in the secondary last season, but there are reasons to believe they can be better this season, even if largely by default. For one, they added a couple of veterans in free agency who will likely start, signing safety DeShon Elliott and cornerback Mike Hughes. Neither came at an expensive price, signing 1-year deals worth 1.1 million and 2.25 million respectively, but both have a good chance to be valuable for the Lions.

Elliott’s biggest problem is injuries, as, not only did his 2021 season end after six games due to injury, but he also suffered season ending injuries in 2018 and 2019, limiting the 2018 6th round pick to just 40 snaps total in his first two seasons in the league. Elliott has always been a solid player when on the field in his career, including a 2020 season where he was a 16-game starter, and he’s still only going into his age 25 season, so he has a great chance to be at least a solid starter for the Lions this season if healthy, but that could be a big if. 

As long as he’s on the field, it won’t be hard for Elliott to be an upgrade on incumbent starter Will Harris, who will be the 3rd safety at best going into the 2022 season, after finishing 97th out of 98 eligible safeties on PFF as a 17-game starter last season. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Harris also struggled on snap counts of 668 and 312 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. If Elliott is healthy, Harris could see some action in three safety sets, which the Lions ran somewhat frequently in sub packages last season to mask their lack of depth at linebacker. Harris could still struggle in that role, but it’s better than having him in the starting lineup.

Tracy Walker remains as the other starting safety next to Elliott, after being retained on a 3-year, 25 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season. Walker has been inconsistent, falling from 26th among safeties on PFF in 2019 to all the way down to 86th in 2020, before bouncing back to a middling 46th ranked finish in 2021, so it’s hard to know what to expect from him this season, but the 2018 3rd round pick at least has some upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him at least be a middling starter again in 2022.

Hughes will likely start in three cornerback sets alongside Amani Oruwariye and Jeff Okudah, the latter of whom is returning after a lost season due to injury and will return this season, another reason why the Lions’ secondary should be better this season. Okudah struggled mightily as a rookie in 2020, finishing 125th out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF, before being limited to just 48 snaps by a torn achilles last season, but he’ll be a full year removed from the achilles tear by week 1 and the former 3rd overall pick is still only going into his age 23 season, so he still has plenty to time to make good on his high upside. He’s something of a wild card and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he struggled again, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he was a real asset in the third season of his career in 2022.

Hughes was something of a flyer for the Lions this off-season, but he comes with a lot of upside, as the 2018 1st round pick is still only in his age 25 season and is coming off of a career best season, finishing 8th among cornerbacks on PFF on a career high 509 snaps in Kansas City. He’s a complete one-year wonder who has never been a full-time starter in his career and injuries were a big problem for him early in his career, costing him 24 games across his first three seasons before he played in all 17 last season, but if he can stay healthy, he has the upside to be an above average starter. Oruwariye led this position group with 937 snaps last season and will likely remain a starter, even though the 2019 5th round pick has been mediocre in that role over the past two seasons (29 starts). 

It’s possible Oruwariye and Hughes could face competition from 2021 3rd round pick Ifeatu Melifonwu, who flashed on 242 snaps as a rookie and who could push for a larger role in year two. AJ Parker (556 snaps) and Jerry Jacobs (535 snaps) saw significant action last season as well, despite being undrafted rookies and, while Jacobs flashed a little potential, Parker struggled mightily and both are unlikely to have much, if any role this season. This isn’t a great secondary and it might not even be a good secondary, but it will be much more serviceable than last season.

Grade: B-

Special Teams

The Lions actually had an above average special teams last season, ranking 10th in special teams DVOA. They have a good chance to be above average again in 2022, bringing back all of their key players. Austin Seibert and Riley Patterson both saw action at kicker last season and will compete for the starting job, with Jack Fox locked in as the starting punter again and Godwin Igwebuike and Kalif Raymond returning as their returners. Jason Cabinda and CJ Moore headline their special teams coverage unit, with both finishing in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF last season, as well as free agent acquisition Chris Board, who was also in the top-50 last season as well, as a member of the Ravens. At the very least, this should be at least an average special teams unit.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Lions should be better than a year ago and their offense has a good chance of being at least a decent unit, but their defense is likely to remain among the worst in the league and overall this team still seems like it’s at least a year away from being legitimate playoff contenders, still in the middle of a multi-year rebuild process. They’ll likely be competitive in most of their games, but ultimately they’re likely to finish sub-.500 for at least another season. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: Not much has changed for a Lions team that figures to be more competitive this season, but to still finish sub-.500, primarily due to a defense that remains a significant concern.

Prediction: 7-10, 3rd in NFC North

Chicago Bears 2022 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Quarterback

Four years ago, the Bears had a first year head coach in Matt Nagy and a promising second year quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who they had drafted 2nd overall the year before. Believing Trubisky was the quarterback who could lead them to a Super Bowl and wanting to strike while he was still on a cheap rookie deal, the Bears were aggressive adding talent on big contracts during the 2018 off-season, after having already been aggressive adding big contracts over the previous two off-seasons. 

Because of all their off-season spending, the Bears entered the 2018 season 3rd in terms of average annual salary of their roster, despite having a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal, and most players lived up to their big salaries, leading the Bears to a 12-4 season, on the strength of a league best defense. However, the Bears lost in the first round of the post-season and that proved to be the peak of the Mitch Trubisky era. 

Despite their success in 2018, Trubisky himself did not progress much from his rookie season and, with their defense becoming increasingly tough to keep together long-term, Trubisky did not elevate his play to compensate for their defensive regression, resulting in back-to-back 8-8 seasons in 2019 and 2020 and Trubisky’s eventual departure from the Bears last off-season, after the Bears declined to pick up his 5th year option.

Now in 2022, the Bears are in a similar situation as they were back in 2018.  Matt Eberflus is their new head coach, replacing Nagy, and Justin Fields, who the Bears selected in the 2021 NFL Draft to replace Trubisky, is now heading into his second season in the league, having shown some promise as a rookie. However, the Bears took a completely different approach this off-season, not only avoiding adding significant contracts, but also completing the teardown of their 2018 defense, which now has just two players remaining on this roster four years later.

The result is the Bears have the lowest average annual salary in the league by far, by over 25 million less than the 31st ranked Falcons, with an eye on having the most cap space in the league next off-season, which they currently do by a wide margin. Also lacking their first round pick, having given it up to move up for Fields a year ago, there wasn’t much the Bears could do to drastically improve this roster this off-season without spending money, so the result of their off-season strategy is a roster that looks significantly worse than it did a year ago, for a team that is clearly taking more of a long-term view, rather than trying to strike while the iron is hot.

The Bears were better than their 6-11 record suggested last season, they ranked 18th in overall efficiency, but had tied for the 2nd worst turnover margin in the league at -13. Efficiency tends to be much more predictive than turnover margins, but the Bears offense ranked just 22nd in efficiency last season, with their 13th ranked defense being a significantly better unit. Having lost significant talent on that side of the ball this off-season, their defense could easily decline significantly, leading to the Bears having below average play on both sides of the ball.

The Bears’ approach could easily prove to be the wrong one, as Fields won’t have much support around him in a crucial development and evaluatory year. He didn’t have a ton of support as a rookie either, leading to him completing just 58.9% of his passes for an average of 6.93 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, with 420 yards and 2 touchdowns on 72 carries (5.83 YPC), despite Fields actually playing decently for his part, finishing 28th out of 38 eligible quarterbacks on PFF in 10 rookie year starts. Year two is typically when we’d expect a statistical jump from a talented young quarterback, but Fields may find that hard to do given his supporting cast, even if he does progress as a player.

Veterans Andy Dalton and Nick Foles also made starts last season, with Dalton beginning the year as the starter while Fields was still learning the ropes and then taking over for Fields for a short stretch when he was injured, before Dalton suffered an injury of his own, forcing Foles into a start. Both are gone now, with mediocre veteran backup Trevor Siemian (81.2 QB rating in 29 career starts) replacing them as a free agent, which means that, for better or worse, this is Fields’ team in 2022.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Wide receiver Allen Robinson was one of the big additions the Bears made before the 2018 season, giving Trubisky a #1 wide receiver on a 3-year, 42 million dollar deal, and he was also one of the veterans the Bears let go of this off-season, with Robinson signing with the Rams on a 3-year, 46.5 million dollar deal, after spending 2021 on the franchise tag in Chicago. Robinson looked like a shell of himself last season, with a 38/410/1 slash line in 12 games and a mediocre 1.13 yards per route run average, so it’s understandable why the Bears didn’t bring him back, but wide receiver was already a big position of weakness for this team last season and letting Robinson walk without a good replacement makes this group even worse.

Darnell Mooney had already supplanted Robinson as the #1 receiver, with the 2020 5th round pick showing great chemistry with Justin Fields and totaling a 81/1055/4 slash line with 1.72 yards per route run in his second season in the league in 2021, after showing promise in a more limited role as a rookie. Mooney needed 140 targets (11th in the NFL) to get those numbers, but he should have a big target share again in 2022, given their lack of other options, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take another step forward in year three. The rest of this group behind Mooney is much more questionable though. 

Most of the Bears other wide receivers last season are no longer with the team, which isn’t really a bad thing, especially the departure of Damiere Byrd, who had just a 26/329/1 slash line with a 0.84 yards per route run average and finished 106th among 110 eligible wide receivers on PFF last season as the Bears’ de facto #3 wide receiver behind Mooney and Robinson last season. However, the Bears didn’t really find any upgrades for the mediocre veterans who departed this off-season, so this is still an underwhelming group.

Their biggest signing in free agency was Byron Pringle, who signed on a 1-year, 4.125 million dollar deal after posting a 42/568/5 slash line with 1.42 yards per route run as a member of the Chiefs last season. Those aren’t bad numbers, unless you take into account that he had the benefit of playing with Patrick Mahomes, something the 2018 undrafted free agent has had his entire career. Despite that benefit, Pringle has just a 1.43 yards per route run average for his career, with just 25 career catches prior to last season’s decent campaign. Already in his age 29 season, Pringle is unlikely to have any untapped upside, so he should be a middling starting option at best for them.

The Bears also used a 3rd round pick on wide receiver Velus Jones and, without a better option, he’s likely to start in 3-wide receiver sets as a rookie. He could easily prove overmatched in that role, especially since he was not overly productive as a receiver in college and is already in his age 25 season as a rookie. Jones should provide value for the Bears as a return man, but there’s a good chance he doesn’t pan out as a long-term starting wide receiver. The Bears’ only other options are mediocre veteran free agent acquisitions Tajae Sharpe (1.01 career yards per route run), Dante Pettis (1.34), and Equanimous St. Brown (1.09), as well as 2021 6th round pick Daz Newsome, who caught just 2 passes as a rookie. This is a very underwhelming group.

With all of their problems at wide receiver last season, tight end Cole Kmet finished 2nd on the team with 93 targets, but he didn’t do much with them, finishing with a 60/612/0 slash line and averaging just 1.23 yards per route run. This comes after a rookie season in which he averaged just 0.94 yards per route run in limited action. Kmet was a 2nd round pick and is still only in his age 23 season, so he still has upside and could easily take a step forward again in year three, when he’ll again have plenty of opportunity for targets, but he also could just remain a marginal starting tight end like he was last season.

Veterans Ryan Griffin and James O’Shaughnessy were signed in free agency to compete for the #2 tight end role, which is primarily a blocking role. Neither have shown much as a receiver (1.07 yards per route run and 1.10 yards per route run for their careers) and both are on the wrong side of 30, in their age 32 and age 30 seasons respectively, so they would both be a big liability if forced into a significant role in place of an injured Kmet, but they’re not terrible depth, especially given the limited roles they are expected to play. Shaughnessy is the better of the two as a blocker, but Griffin signed for more money (2.25 million vs. 1.125 million) and isn’t a terrible blocker either. Outside of #1 receiver Darnell Mooney, the Bears lack reliable pass catchers.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Bears also lost their best two offensive lineman from a year ago, left tackle Jason Peters and right guard James Daniels, without adequately replacing either of them this off-season. Peters is likely going to hang them up, rather than return to the NFL for his age 40 season, even though he was still PFF’s 21st ranked offensive tackle last season, while Daniels signed with the Steelers on a 3-year, 25 million dollar deal after ranking as PFF’s 20th best guard last season.

Peters wasn’t replaced at all, with the Bears instead turning the left tackle job over to 2021 2nd round pick Teven Jenkins. The Bears’ intention originally was to turn the left tackle job over to Jenkins immediately as a rookie, cutting long-time veteran left tackle Charles Leno right after drafting Jenkins, but Jenkins suffered a back injury in the off-season that cost him most of the season and necessitated the addition of the veteran Jason Peters, who played well enough to keep the job all season.

Peters was signed when Jenkins got hurt because the Bears didn’t want to have to turn to 2021 5th round pick Larry Borom at left tackle as a rookie, but expected right tackle Germain Ifedi missed most of the season as well, so Borom ended up in the starting lineup anyway. Borom wasn’t great, finishing slightly below average on PFF, but he played well enough that he also kept the job all season, with Jenkins being limited to just 160 snaps as Peters’ backup after returning from his back injury. 

Part of that is because Jenkins struggled behind the scenes and he continued that into his limited action, struggling mightily when on the field. Jenkins could easily be a lot better in year two, especially since he should be healthier, but it’s a big concern for a Bears team that doesn’t really have another starting tackle option other than making Jenkins and Borom. Borom was a 5th round pick a year ago and didn’t show a ton as a rookie, so both tackles could easily be a liability this season.

The Bears’ top reserve tackles are Julie’n Davenport and Shon Coleman, who have struggled in limited action in their careers, starting 32 games in five seasons in the league and 16 games in six seasons in the league respectively. The Bears also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Braxton Jones from Southern Utah University, who is raw and likely would not make a positive impact as a rookie, but who has the tools to potentially develop into a useful player for them long-term.

At guard, Daniels will be replaced by free agent acquisition Lucas Patrick, who comes over from the Packers on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal. Patrick was a capable starter in 2020, starting 15 games and finishing slightly above average on PFF, but he moved to center in 2021 and was not the same, finishing 33rd out of 41 eligible centers on PFF. He could bounce back now that he’s back at guard, but he’s still an unproven player, entering the league undrafted in 2016, making just six starts in his first four seasons in the league prior to his solid 2020 season, and only having one season as a solid starting guard on his resume. 

Even in a best case scenario, Patrick figures to be a noticeable dropoff from Daniels, who was a consistently above average starter for the Bears in four seasons since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2018. That’s a problem for a team that already had a big weakness on the interior of their offensive line, with center Sam Mustipher needing to be upgraded. Instead, the Bears downgraded Daniels and locked Mustipher into the starting job again, without another good alternative. Mustipher was PFF’s 36th ranked center out of 41 eligible in his first full season as a starter in 2021, predictably struggling after going undrafted in 2019 and struggling in limited action in his first two seasons in the league. He figures to be a liability again in 2022.

Cody Whitehair remains the starter at left guard. A 2nd round pick by the Bears in 2016, Whitehair has never lived up to the 3rd ranked finish among centers that he had as a rookie, but he’s still been a consistently above average starter for the Bears over the past six seasons, starting 95 of a possible 97 games, while seeing action at both guard spots as well as center. He’s going into his age 30 season now, but has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter for at least another couple seasons. 

Whitehair and Patrick both have the versatility to kick inside to center to replace Mustipher, but the Bears don’t have another option at guard in that scenario, as their depth is suspect across the line and their top reserve interior lineman is Dakota Dozier, a 8-year veteran who has mostly been a reserve in his career and who has mostly struggled when forced into action, especially struggling in the only extended starting action of his career in 2020, finishing 87th out of 92 eligible guards on PFF as a 16-game starter for the Vikings. Now in his age 31 season, Dozier would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action again. Even if injuries don’t strike, this is a very shaky offensive line and injuries would make this an even more ineffective unit.

Grade: C

Running Backs

David Montgomery returns as the Bears’ starting running back for the 4th straight season, a role he has had since joining the Bears as a 3rd round pick in 2019. Montgomery has just a 3.93 YPC average for his career (714 carries) and has been under 4 YPC in two of three seasons, but a lot of the problem has been his supporting cast, with 65.2% of his yardage coming after contact in those two seasons. Even in Montgomery’s one season above 1,000 yards rushing in 2020, it was Montgomery doing most of the work, with 72.8% of his 4.33 YPC coming after contact and 54 forced missed tackles, giving him the 6th highest elusive rating in the league, leading to him finishing 9th among running backs on PFF in overall grade. 

Montgomery had a 4.48 YPC average on 69 carries in four games last season before suffering an injury that cost him four weeks and probably limited him the rest of the season, so Montgomery has a good chance to bounce back at least close to his 2020 form if healthy and, having only missed one game with injury in his first two seasons in the league, there’s a good chance he stays relatively healthy for most of the season. He’ll still be held back by his supporting cast, but he should be more efficient than a year ago.

Khalil Herbert flashed potential in Montgomery’s absence last season, finishing his rookie season with a significantly better YPC average than Montgomery, averaging 4.20 YPC on 103 carries (67.2% after contact), despite being just a 6th round rookie. 78 of those carries came in the four games Montgomery missed, so he really didn’t have much of a role as a ball carrier when Montgomery was healthy, which will probably remain the case this season, but he could push to eat into Montgomery’s carries a little bit more and, with Montgomery going into the final year of his rookie deal, Herbert could be the Bears’ starting running back of the future in 2023 and beyond.

Herbert didn’t show much at all in the passing game, with 0.68 yards per route run averaged, so Montgomery figures to continue seeing the majority of the passing game work as well, even though his career 1.01 yards per route run average is also underwhelming. Montgomery finished 4th on the team with 51 targets last season and, with their receiving corps still very thin, he could once again have a big passing game role, even if he’s not a particularly efficient target. He’s not an elite running back, but he is one of the better runners in the league when he’s healthy and he has a good backup in Khalil Herbert, even if neither are a threat in the passing game.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned earlier, the Bears have just two players remaining from their dominant 2018 defense. They had been losing key players from that unit for years, but even last season they had seven key players from that defense left, with five of them being let go this off-season. Three of those players were interior defenders, with Eddie Goldman getting released and Akiem Hicks and Bilal Nichols signing with the Buccaneers and Raiders respectively as free agents. Goldman and Hicks were limited to 336 snaps and 304 snaps respectively last season and Goldman struggled mightily, so he isn’t a big loss, but Hicks still played at a pretty high level when healthy last season (9 games) and Nichols was a solid player across 679 snaps, earning a slightly above average grade from PFF.

Making matters worse, the Bears didn’t do much to replace them, aside from signing ex-Charger Justin Jones to a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal. A third round pick by the Chargers in 2018, Jones has played at a high level against the run on occasion, including a 11th ranked finish among interior defenders in run defense grade in 2020, but he hasn’t been played at that level consistently and hasn’t been much help at all as a pass rusher, with just 4.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 5.6% pressure rate in 51 games. Last season, Jones played 44.2 snaps per game and earned just a middling overall grade from PFF, even though he had a career high 3 sacks with a 6.3% pressure rate. The Bears shouldn’t expect much more out of him this season, even if he does have some bounce back potential, still only in his age 26 season.

Jones will likely start next to Angelo Blackson, who is probably locked into a starting role, even though he was originally brought to Chicago as a reserve and struggled mightily when forced into a career high 584 snaps last season as an injury replacement, finishing 98th out of 146 eligible interior defenders on PFF. Blackson still likely will play around that snap count in 2022, for lack of a better option, and he figures to struggle again, going into his age 30 season, having finished below average on PFF in 6 of 7 seasons in the league.

The Bears selected Khyiris Tonga in the 7th round in 2021 and he has a good chance to see a higher snap total in year two, after playing 217 snaps as a rookie, but the 6-4 321 pounder is just an early down run stopper and didn’t show much even in that aspect as a rookie. He might have some upside, but he could easily be overstretched in a larger role and is unlikely to ever give them anything as a pass rusher. Veteran Mario Edwards will also play a role as a reserve and the 6-3 280 pounder has a solid 8.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s played an average of just 248 snaps per season and 17.7 snaps per game over the past 4 seasons and might struggle in a larger role, especially against the run. This is a very underwhelming position group.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The most notable loss on this Bears defense this off-season is Khalil Mack, whose acquisition prior to the 2018 season for a pair of first round picks was what jump started this defense and this team to the season they had that year. Now, with Mack being sent to the Chargers for a second round pick, it officially signals the end of that era and the start of a full rebuild. The Bears didn’t even get a first round pick for Mack because he’s going into his age 31 season and is coming off of an injury plagued season in which he played just 315 snaps, but, even coming off of that season, the Bears will still miss him. His direct replacement will be Al-Quadin Muhammad, who is obviously not the same caliber player. 

Muhammad signed on a 2-year, 8 million dollar contract as a free agent this off-season, coming over from the Colts, where his defensive coordinator for four seasons was new Bears head coach Matt Eberflus. A 6th round pick by the Saints in 2017, Muhammad has been a consistently solid run stopper throughout his career, but has never been much of a pass rusher, with just 11 sacks, 21 hits, and a 7.4% pressure rate in 64 games over the past four seasons. He’s coming off of the best pass rushing season of his career in 2021, but still had just 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.1% pressure rate. He played an average of 569 snaps per season over the past four seasons and should be around there in 2022 with his new team.

One veteran player the Bears didn’t get rid of this off-season is Robert Quinn, surprising, considering he is going into his age 32 season and his value will almost definitely never be higher than it is right now, coming off of a 18.5-sack campaign a year ago, ranking 2nd in the league only behind Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt, with contract that pays him a reasonable 39.9 million over the past three seasons, all of which is unguaranteed. Quinn wasn’t a member of the Bears’ 2018 defense, but, like most of the players from that defense that the Bears moved on from this off-season, he’s an aging veteran that doesn’t seem to fit the Bears’ timeline.

Quinn is going to have a hard time coming close to matching last year’s sack total and not just because he’s getting older. His peripheral pass rush stats last year (3 hits, 11.7% pressure rate) were not nearly as good as his sack total would suggest and he’s just a season removed from only having 2 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate in his first season with the Bears in 2020. He’s been a good pass rusher throughout most of his 11-year career, since being selected 14th overall by the Rams in 2011, totaling 101 sacks, 98 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate in 156 games, but he’s mostly struggled against the run and his age is becoming a concern. He could easily see his sack total cut more than in half in 2022.

Trevis Gipson probably won’t start, but the 2020 6th round pick impressed in place of Mack last season and should at least have a heavy rotational role in 2022, especially in sub packages, given Muhammad’s issues as a pass rusher. Gipson finished as PFF’s 34th ranked edge defender last season across 489 snaps, totaling 7 sacks, 4 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. He’s still unproven, only playing 72 snaps as a rookie prior to last season, but he could easily be a future starter and should be at least somewhat effective for them in a rotational role this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him surpass last season’s snap total, now in his 3rd year in the league.

Veteran Jeremiah Attaochu also figures to have a reserve role at the edge defender position, assuming he can stay healthy, which has been a big challenge for him in his career, missing 50 games in 8 seasons in the league, never once playing in all 16 games, and coming off of a 2021 season in which he played just 129 snaps in 5 games before a torn pectoral ended his season. Attaochu is somehow still only in his age 29 season and he’s been decently productive when on the field, with a career 10.3% pressure rate, but he’s only a reserve option even if healthy. With Mack gone and Quinn likely to regress, this group figures to be significantly worse than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Along with Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, Eddie Goldman, and Khalil Mack, the other player from their 2018 defense that the Bears moved on from this off-season was Danny Trevathan. He only played 77 snaps in 5 games last season though, so the Bears had already been moving on from him and he won’t be missed. Roquan Smith, their other starting off ball linebacker in 2018 and one of the two players remaining from that defense, has since taken over as the top linebacker. The 8th overall pick in 2018, Smith struggles in run defense, but he has developed into one of the better coverage linebackers in the league, finishing 4th and 17th among off ball linebackers in coverage grade on PFF over the past two seasons respectively. 

Alec Ogletree struggled mightily as the other starter last season, finishing 93rd out of 94 eligible off ball linebackers on PFF across 697 snaps, but he’s no longer with the team and will likely be replaced free agent acquisition Nicholas Morrow, who the Bears signed from the Raiders on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal. Morrow missed all of 2021 with injury, but he was PFF’s 29th ranked off ball linebacker on 723 snaps in 2020 and is still only in his age 27 season. He’s a one-year wonder, finishing below average on PFF in each of the first three seasons of his career prior to his solid 2020 season, and the injury doesn’t help matters, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Ogletree.

The Bears also have career reserve linebacker Joe Thomas, who has mostly struggled in his career and is now going into his age 31 season, coming off of a season in which he played just 86 snaps, and ex-Colt Matthew Adams, who played just 322 underwhelming snaps for Matt Eberflus as a reserve after being selected in the 7th round in 2018. Outside of Roquan Smith, this is an underwhelming group, but Smith is probably their best defensive player.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Along with Roquan Smith, the other remaining player from the Bears’ 2018 defense is safety Eddie Jackson, but even he’s fallen off significantly, ranking 49th, 67th, and 73rd among safeties on PFF in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively, after a dominant season in 2018 in which he was PFF’s #1 overall ranked safety. Jackson is still only in his age 28 season, but the 5-year veteran has proven to be a complete one-year wonder. He should remain at least a solid starter in 2022, but it’s unlikely he ever bounces back close to his 2018 form and he has seemingly gotten worse in each of the past three seasons.

In 2018, Jackson formed a dominant duo with Adrian Amos, who ranked 10th among safeties on PFF that season, but Amos signed with the Packers the following off-season. Amos was first replaced by HaHa Clinton-Dix and then by Tashaun Gipson, but the Bears are hoping they found a more permanent solution this off-season when they used a second round pick on Jaquan Brisker. Brisker could struggle as a rookie, but he has the potential to develop into an above average starter long-term. He’ll have to start in year one because their only other option is veteran career backup DeAndre Houston-Carson, who has started just three games in six seasons in the league. Houston-Carson has been good in limited action in his career, but would likely be overstretched if he had to start for an extended period of time.

The Bears also used a second round pick on cornerback Kyler Gordon, who has a good chance to start as a rookie and, even as a rookie, he could be an upgrade on Kindle Vildor (822 snaps) and Duke Shelley (409 snaps), who finished 124th and 113rd respectively out of 134 eligible cornerbacks on PFF last season. Vildor and Shelley were selected in the 5th round and 6th round respectively in 2020 and 2019 respectively and last season was the first extended action of either of their careers, so it’s likely both would continue to struggle if they had to start again in 2022, but the Bears also signed Tavon Young from the Ravens and are hoping he can start in three cornerback sets with Gordon and Jaylon Johnson.

Young has been a solid starter in his career, playing both inside and outside, but he also hasn’t been the most dependable player, missing all of 2017 and 2019 with injury and all but 2 games in 2020. He did play in all 17 games last season and he’s only going into his age 28 season, but there’s a good chance he misses more time with injury again in 2022, in which case Vildor or Shelley would likely be forced back into significant action, for lack of a better option.

Jaylon Johnson is the Bears’ de facto #1 cornerback, but he hasn’t played like one, at least not yet. The 2020 2nd round pick struggled as a rookie, finishing 91st out of 136 eligible cornerbacks on PFF, before having a more middling season in 2021. He has the upside to be an above average starter long-term and could easily take a step forward in his third season in the league, but he isn’t a true #1 cornerback and he’s not the kind of player who significantly elevates an underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Special Teams

Special teams was a strength of the Bears’ in 2021, ranking 7th in special teams DVOA. They retain kicker Cairo Santos, and 7th round rookie punter Trenton Gill could be an upgrade on the underwhelming Pat O’Donnell. They don’t have Jakeem Grant anymore and he was their best returner last season, but rookies Velus Jones and Trestan Ebner had two touchdowns and four touchdowns respectively on special teams in their collegiate careers and both should have a role as returners, as could Khalil Herbert, who averaged 24.1 yards per kickoff return as a rookie last season and 26.9 yards per kickoff return in his final collegiate season in 2020.

The biggest concern is that the Bears lost a trio of special teamers this off-season who were arguably their best last season, Christian Jones, Marqui Christian, and Deon Bush, who all finished in the top-50 among special teamers on PFF last season, only adding one top-50 player (Matthew Adams) to replace them, instead relying on rookies to establish themselves as contributors in year one. The Bears probably won’t have a bad special teams unit this season, but it definitely wouldn’t be a surprise if they weren’t as good as a year ago, without three key players and with young players being relied on in a significant way.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Bears are going into a key year in the development and the evaluation process of Justin Fields, who they invested a pair of first round picks in, by virtue of their trade up to draft him 11th overall, but the Bears are giving Fields no help, opting to tear down and rebuild the roster around him long-term. It’s strange timing, as teams usually take advantage of having a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal and try to win right away, but maybe the Bears’ plan is to do that in 2023, having saved up a lot of cap space for next off-season. 

It’s also possible the Bears’ new regime doesn’t believe in Fields and has their eye on one of the quarterbacks atop a talented quarterback class in the 2023 NFL Draft. Either way, the short-term result is very likely to be a tough season in 2022, with the Bears looking like among the worst teams in the league, even if Justin Fields does take a step forward in year two. The Bears have the least invested in their active roster in terms of average annual salary by a wide margin and it shows when you look at this team. They might be lucky to win more than a few games. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Final Prediction: The Bears could be better than some expect if they get a big improvement from Justin Fields in year two, but even in that scenario, Fields would have his work cut out to win more than a few games with this roster. With one of the least expensive rosters in the NFL, the Bears are clearly planning for 2023 and beyond, leaving Fields in a tough situation in the meantime, in a critical second year of development.

Prediction: 4-13, 4th in NFC North

2022 NFL Mock Draft Final With Trades

stevenlourie Uncategorized
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Travon Walker (Georgia)
  2. Detroit Lions – DE Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan)
  3. Houston Texans – OT Ikem Ekwonu (NC State)
  4. New York Jets – CB Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati)
  5. New Orleans Saints – QB Malik Willis (Liberty)
  6. Carolina Panthers – QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)
  7. New York Giants – OT Evan Neal (Alabama)
  8. Atlanta Falcons – DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon)
  9. Houston Texans – CB Derek Stingley (LSU)
  10. New York Jets – DE Jermaine Johnson (Florida State)
  11. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Matt Corral (Mississippi)
  12. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Jameson Williams (Alabama)
  13. Seattle Seahawks – OT Charles Cross (Mississippi State)
  14. Green Bay Packers – WR Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)
  15. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Drake London (USC)
  16. New York Giants – S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame)
  17. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Jordan Davis (Georgia)
  18. Philadelphia Eagles – CB Trent McDuffie (Washington)
  19. New York Giants – DE George Karlaftis (Purdue)
  20. Washington Commanders – WR Chris Olave (Ohio State)
  21. New England Patriots – OT Trevor Penning (Northern Iowa)
  22. Baltimore Ravens – C Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa)
  23. Arizona Cardinals – G Kenyon Green (Texas A&M)
  24. Seattle Seahawks – QB Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati)
  25. Buffalo Bills – CB Andrew Booth (Clemson)
  26. Tennessee Titans – MLB Devin Lloyd (Utah)
  27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Devonte Wyatt (Georgia)
  28. Green Bay Packers – G Zion Johnson (Boston College)
  29. Minnesota Vikings – CB Kaiir Elam (Florida)
  30. Minnesota Vikings – DE Boye Mafe (Minnesota)
  31. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Quay Walker (Georgia)
  32. Detroit Lions – OLB Nakobe Dean (Georgia)

2022 NFL Mock Draft

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Mock Draft

Updated 4/28/22

* = team has hosted player on private pre-draft workout

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Travon Walker (Georgia)*

Travon Walker has gained a lot of momentum towards being the eventual #1 pick in the past couple weeks, actually becoming the odds on favorite over Aidan Hutchinson, who has been considered the heavy favorite since the start of free agency. Both players play the same position, but are very different prospects. Hutchinson was highly productive in college, but lacks elite athleticism, might not have much more room for growth, and is not the kind of prospect that usually goes #1, even in an uncharacteristically weak draft at the top. Walker was not as productive in college, but that was largely because of how he was used, he is off the charts athletically, and he has an upside to justify being the #1 pick. Even before the betting odds swung, I was considering moving Walker up to 1. The buzz seems real.

2. Detroit Lions – DE Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan)*

The Lions might be the happiest team to see Walker go #1, as Hutchinson is reportedly their top choice. Walker would likely be the pick if the Jaguars passed on him, but Hutchinson is a local product who is probably higher on their board and, like Walker, Hutchinson would fill their biggest weakness, as the Lions moved on from free agent bust Trey Flowers this off-season, but have yet to properly replace him.

3. Houston Texans – OT Ikem Ekwonu (NC State)*

With the top two picks likely being edge defenders, the Texans are a good bet to take the first offensive lineman off the board, in a draft headlined by edge defenders and offensive linemen. The Texans’ offensive line struggled mightily without Laremy Tunsil for most of last season and, while he’s expected back for 2022, the Texans need a better right tackle opposite him and better insurance on the left side in case Tunsil gets hurt again or is not kept long-term, with two expensive years left on his contract. I’ve had Evan Neal here in the past and he’s still an option, but he’s reportedly slipping because of medical reasons and the Texans have worked out Ekwonu privately, whereas they have not worked out Neal. It’s a close call here, but Ekwonu gets the slight edge here. Worst case scenario, he could kick inside and play guard at a high level.

4. New York Jets – CB Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati)*

It’s really close here between edge defender Kayvon Thibodeaux and cornerback Ahmad Gardner. Both would fill big needs for a Jets team that had the worst defense in the league last season, but it sounds like the Jets prefer Gardner over Thibodeaux, whose stock is falling because of concerns about his work ethic. Gardner is a much safer pick and would immediately play a big role at cornerback for the Jets alongside incumbent top cornerback Bryce Hall and free agent signing DJ Reed.

5. New Orleans Saints (TRADE) – QB Malik Willis (Liberty)

The Saints made a trade with the Eagles to get an extra first round in this year’s draft, at the expense of significant future draft capital. The Saints now have picks #16 and #19 in the first round, but I don’t think they are done dealing, as it would be a weird move for the Saints to give up that much future draft capital for a pick this year when they don’t know who will be available at that spot. More likely, the Saints are looking to move up even further to secure their desired quarterback prospect and, now with two first round picks, they have the draft capital to move up to 5 ahead of the Panthers, who are very likely to draft a quarterback in the first round. The Saints would also jump the Falcons at 8 and the Seahawks at 9, who could both very well take quarterbacks before the Saints’ first pick at 16.

The Giants have the 5th pick, but they also pick at 7, so it would make sense for them to trade out of one of their top-10 picks if they have an opportunity to. If the Giants made this trade, they would have picks 7, 16, and 19 in the first round. The trade is close to even on the trade value chart, with the Giants holding the slight edge, but maybe the Giants would send a later future pick back to the Saints to complete this trade. I had the Saints taking Kenny Pickett in my last mock because he seemed to fit what the Saints look for at the position more, but it’s too hard to ignore the sky high upside Willis has, as compared to Pickett. The Saints have Jameis Winston under contract, so they can afford to be patient with a young quarterback. Willis seems likely to be the first quarterback off the board.

6. Carolina Panthers – QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)*

It’s rare that teams are forced to use a first round pick on a quarterback, but the Panthers are in a unique situation and their front office has even admitted they may be forced to take a quarterback. The Panthers had one of the worst quarterback situations in the league last season and, unlike every other quarterback needy team, the Panthers did nothing to improve their situation this off-season, striking out on every major available quarterback, leaving highly inconsistent incumbent Sam Darnold as the starter if the season were to begin today. A trade for Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo is a possibility, but Darnold is already set to make a significant amount of money in 2022, so adding another highly paid, but non-elite quarterback would be a questionable decision. 

That leaves the draft as their best option, but because of past trades, the Panthers don’t pick again after this pick until the end of the 4th round. The Panthers may try to trade down and get their quarterback after picking up additional picks, but with the Saints moving up ahead of them at 5 and the Falcons and Seahawks needing quarterbacks at 8 and 9, the Panthers might not have a choice but to take their guy here. Pickett doesn’t have Willis’ ceiling, but is the more NFL ready option for a Panthers team that needs an upgrade under center immediately.

7. New York Giants – OT Evan Neal (Alabama)*

The Giants once again need offensive line help, as they try to give Daniel Jones at least a fair shot at success for the first time in his career. Andrew Thomas has developed into an above average starter at left tackle, but highly paid right tackle Nate Solder has been a disappointment and seems unlikely to be retained as a free agent this off-season, ahead of his age 34 season. Neal would give the Giants a talented, young offensive tackle duo, after making some additions on the interior of the offensive line in free agency this off-season. Neal would likely be the Giants’ pick at 5 if they don’t trade down, but they can trade down with a team looking to move up for a quarterback and be confident they could get Neal at 7, with the Panthers likely taking a quarterback at 6.

8. Atlanta Falcons – DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon)

The Falcons need a quarterback after trading Matt Ryan, but they signed Marcus Mariota as a short-term option and they have so many other needs that reaching on a quarterback wouldn’t really make sense, especially since they figure to end up with another high pick in a better quarterback draft in 2023, given the current state of their roster. With the top-two quarterbacks off the board, the decision to pass on a quarterback is even easier. Instead, they take the best available, likely Kayvon Thibodeaux, who would fill a massive need for a Falcons team that somehow hasn’t had more than 39 sacks since 2004. Thibodeaux comes with a lot of risk, but was a candidate to go #1 at one point and the Falcons are a good bet to stop his slide if he falls out of the top-5.

9. Seattle Seahawks – OT Charles Cross (Mississippi State)

With the top-2 quarterbacks off the board early, the Seahawks instead address their glaring need at offensive tackle with the 9th overall pick they acquired from the Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade, as they don’t have a starting caliber tackle on the roster, with last year’s starters Duane Brown and Brandon Shell both hitting free agency this off-season. Even if they eventually re-sign veteran Brown, he is going into his age 37 season, so he’s obviously not a long-term solution. Cross could start in year one for the Seahawks on either side of the line.

10. New York Jets – WR Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)*

The Jets tried to trade this draft pick for Tyreek Hill and then for DK Metcalf, so they likely aren’t done adding at the wide receiver position. The Jets drafted Elijah Moore and signed Corey Davis last off-season and brought back Braxton Berrios as a slot option this off-season, but their depth is suspect, with 2020 2nd round pick Denzel Mims showing nothing in two years in the league. The Jets could have their pick of the top wide receivers in the draft at 10, if they go that route.

11. Washington Commanders – S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame)*

Kyle Hamilton’s stock is slipping after a disappointing combine, but he is still the obvious top safety in the draft and would be a good fit for a Washington team that is likely to target the best available and that needs an upgrade at safety next to Kamren Curl, after cutting disappointing free agent signing Landon Collins this off-season. I don’t see Hamilton going in the top-10 as a safety without elite speed, but Washington would make a lot of sense for him.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (TRADE) – QB Matt Corral (Mississippi)*

Even after signing Mitch Trubisky, the Steelers are prime candidates to draft a quarterback, especially if they can get one they like without having to surrender additional draft picks to move up in a trade. They may ultimately end up having to trade up to secure one of the top quarterback prospects in the draft, but either way it’s likely they end up with a quarterback in the first round, with Trubisky and holdover backup Mason Rudolph both only being short-term options at best. In this scenario, they send a second round pick to the Vikings to move up from 20 to 12.

13. Houston Texans – WR Drake London (USC)

You can really point to any position and the Texans need help there, but wide receiver should be pretty high up on their list, even after extending Brandin Cooks, who was their only reliable wide receiver last season. Last year’s third round pick Nico Collins showed promise, but even if he develops, the Texans will still need at least one more wide receiver. Outside of Cooks and Collins, the Texans’ leading receiver last season had 323 receiving yards.

14. Baltimore Ravens – CB Derek Stingley (LSU)

Cornerback isn’t the Ravens’ biggest need, but Derek Stingley’s upside may be too much for them to pass on if he falls to them. The Ravens lost Anthony Averett in free agency and have not re-signed veteran Jimmy Smith ahead of his age 34 season, so they need depth behind starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphries and Marcus Peters, who are both coming off season ending injuries. Stingley comes with his own injury risk, but if Humphries, Peters, and Stingley are all healthy, they could be the top cornerback trio in the NFL.

15. Philadelphia Eagles – DT Jordan Davis (Georgia)*

Both Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave are heading into the final year of their contract and Cox will be in his age 32 season as well, so long-term help is needed at the position. The Eagles like having a deep defensive line anyway and need rotational help at the position in the short-term. Davis is a good value at this point and could play an immediate role for the Eagles as a rookie, with the upside to develop into a high-level player long-term.

16. New York Giants (TRADE) – CB Trent McDuffie (Washington)

If the Giants don’t trade out of one of their top-10 picks, I would expect them to address either the cornerback or edge defender position with the other pick, after using their first pick on offensive line help. In this scenario, the Giants trade out and get a pair of first round picks from the Saints, which they can use to address both edge defender and cornerback, after taking an offensive lineman in the top-10. The Chargers and Eagles pick between this pick and the Giants’ next pick and both spent significant resources on edge defenders this off-season (Khalil Mack and Haason Reddick respectively), so it would make more sense for the Giants to take a cornerback and wait on an edge defender. McDuffie seems likely to be the third cornerback off the board and could be a top-15 pick depending on how early the top two cornerbacks go.

17. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Trevor Penning (Northern Iowa)

The Chargers drafted a left tackle in the first round last year, but could still use an upgrade at right tackle, where the underwhelming Storm Norton is penciled in as the starter after the Chargers cut the oft-injured Bryan Bulaga this off-season. Penning is a good value at this point in the draft and right tackle is one of the Chargers’ few positions of weakness after an off-season spending spree, so this selection would make a lot of sense.

18. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Jameson Williams (Alabama)*

The Eagles have selected wide receivers in the first round in each of the past two years, but they have two first round picks this year and their selection of Jalen Reagor two years ago was so bad that the Eagles could easily take another wide receiver with one of those two first round picks, as last year’s first round pick DeVonta Smith remains their only real wide receiver threat. Williams likely would have been a top-10 pick and the first wide receiver off the board if he hadn’t torn his ACL in the college football playoff, but the news on his recovery has been good, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him still end up in the top-20, or even top-15. The Eagles will likely consider him at 15 as well, but with the Giants and Chargers picking at 16 and 17 both not needing wide receivers, it makes more sense to take Davis at 15 and wait on Williams.

19. New York Giants (TRADE) – DE Jermaine Johnson (Florida State)

The Giants addressed the cornerback position at 16 and now target an edge defender, having the same choices available to them as would have been available if they took an edge defender at 16. Johnson would be a big boost for a team that once again finished in the bottom half of the league in sacks last season and that lost starting edge defender Lorenzo Carter, without really adding a replacement. He could be a top-15 pick and would be a good value for the Giants at 19.

20. Minnesota Vikings (TRADE) – CB Andrew Booth (Clemson)

I have had the Vikings taking a cornerback in every mock draft. The Vikings traded down from 12 to 20 and acquired an extra second round pick in a trade that enabled the Steelers to move up for their preferred quarterback prospect, but the position the Vikings are targeting doesn’t change after the trade down. The Vikings re-signed Patrick Peterson, but he’s going into his age 32 season and only on a one-year deal, so cornerback could still be the Vikings’ biggest need. Booth would fit the draft range at 20.

21. New England Patriots – MLB Devin Lloyd (Utah)

It was clear from the Patriots’ playoff loss to the Bills that they needed to get more athletic at linebacker and, with linebacker Dont’a Hightower still unsigned as a free agent, the Patriots have an opportunity to find a more athletic upgrade. Even if Hightower returns, he is a declining player heading into his age 32 season, so a long-term option is needed. Lloyd would fit the bill well and is a great value if he falls to the Patriots at 21.

22. Green Bay Packers – WR Chris Olave (Ohio State)

This is one of the picks the Packers received in the Davante Adams trade and it would not at all be surprising if they used this pick to select a replacement wide receiver, as the Packers had a pressing need at the wide receiver position even before Adams was traded. That need got even bigger when the Packers were unable to retain Marquez Valdes-Scantling, despite the Davante Adams trade freeing up significant cap space. Olave would be counted on for a big role in year one.

23. Arizona Cardinals – DE George Karlaftis (Purdue)*

Chandler Jones was going into his age 32 season, but the Cardinals will still miss their top edge defender and need to find a younger long-term replacement for him. Markus Golden also had double digit sacks for the Cardinals last season, but they need an upgrade opposite him. Karlaftis falls a little bit because of how deep this edge defender class is, but he would be a good value for the Cardinals at 23, while filling arguably their biggest need.

24. Dallas Cowboys – C Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa)

The Cowboys have shown a propensity to draft offensive linemen in the first round, usually with a lot of success. Their offensive line was good last season, but they have taken a hit this off-season, losing a pair of starters in left guard Connor Williams and right tackle La’El Collins. Center also remains a weakness, as Tyler Biadasz was the weak link of this group last season and may still be even after Williams and Collins left. The Cowboys have yet to really replace stud center Travis Frederick, who prematurely retired a couple years ago. Linderbaum is one of the best center prospects of the past decade and could remind the Cowboys of Frederick, who they originally selected in the first round.

25. Buffalo Bills – CB Kaiir Elam (Florida)

The Bills don’t have many weaknesses on either side of the ball, but cornerback has been a bit of a concern for years and now is a bigger need, with Tre’Davious White coming off of a torn ACL and fellow starter Levi Wallace signing with the Steelers in free agency, leaving unproven 2020 7th round pick Dane Jackson as the projected starter right now opposite White. Elam could form one of the best cornerback duos in the league with White if he develops and White bounces back from injury.

26. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE) – QB Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati)*

If the Seahawks pass on a quarterback at 9, they could easily move back up into the first round to select a quarterback, possessing two picks in the second round and one in the third. In this scenario, they package together one of the second rounders and the third rounder to move up with the Titans, who can address their biggest needs on day 2. Desmond Ridder will likely be the fourth quarterback off the board, but if there is a run on quarterbacks early, he will likely end up a first round pick.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DT Devonte Wyatt (Georgia)*

A lot has been made about the Buccaneers’ offensive line losses this off-season, but they retained center Ryan Jensen, traded for Shaq Mason to replace Alex Cappa, and could plug 2021 3rd round pick Robert Hainsey in as a starter at the other guard spot if needed. Their defensive line is what actually needs more help now, especially on the interior, where they have numerous unsigned free agents, most notably Ndamukong Suh, who also happens to be in his age 35 season. Adding a young talented interior defender early in the draft would go a long way towards solving that problem.

28. Green Bay Packers – G Zion Johnson (Boston College)

The Packers got Aaron Rodgers a new wide receiver with their last pick and now they get better protection for him with this pick. Left tackle David Bakhtiari’s return after missing all of 2021 would be a big boost for this offensive line, but he’s a major question mark long-term because of his recent injury history. Johnson would give them insurance at the left tackle position and could also play right tackle, where the Packers are replacing Billy Turner, or kick inside to guard, where the Packers could also use an upgrade. Adding a versatile offensive lineman like him makes a lot of sense with the Packers’ second pick in the first round.

29. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Treylon Burks (Arkansas)

The Chiefs now have back-to-back first round picks after trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins and could easily use one of those picks on a replacement wide receiver. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman currently top the depth chart, but Smith-Schuster and Hardman will both be free agents next off-season. Burks has the potential to develop into a long-term #1 receiver for Patrick Mahomes.

30. Kansas City Chiefs – DE Boye Mafe (Minnesota)

The Chiefs’ defense was a lot better after signing Melvin Ingram mid-season, but he is a free agent this off-season and going into his age 33 season. Frank Clark led the team in sacks by an edge defender, but had just 4.5, despite being one of the highest paid edge defenders in the league. Clark could have been cut to save a significant amount of money, but the Chiefs brought him back because they didn’t have another option. They really need to add a blue chip edge defender prospect to the mix early in the draft.

31. Cincinnati Bengals – CB Roger McCreary (Auburn)

The biggest reason the Bengals came up short in the Super Bowl was their offensive line play, but the Bengals have done a great job of adding veterans in free agency to improve their offensive line. Now in the draft they can focus on their second most glaring need from their Super Bowl loss, finding an upgrade over veteran journeyman starting cornerback Eli Apple, who struggled for most of the season and gave up the game winning score in the Super Bowl. McCreary could be a year one starter and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade.

32. Detroit Lions – OLB Nakobe Dean (Georgia)*

Nakobe Dean was one of the best defensive players in college football last year, but his unique draft profile could cause him to fall out of the first round entirely if teams can’t figure out how he would best fit. Dean was an effective edge defender in college, but at 5-11 229 he is likely to be seen by most teams as an off ball linebacker. The Lions would be drafting him more as an off ball linebacker, having taken an edge defender with their other first round pick, and he would fill a big need for the Lions at that position. If he falls in the first round, the Lions, who have worked him out privately, could stop his slide.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams: Super Bowl LVI Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Rams, Super Bowl LVI Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (13-7) vs. Los Angeles Rams (15-5) in Super Bowl LVI

The Bengals have had an improbable run to the Super Bowl, maybe even more so than most people realize. Not only have they pulled upsets over higher seeded teams in their last two playoff wins to qualify for the Super Bowl as a 4-seed, after entering the season with the worst odds in their division, but all three of their wins have come by one score with two of the wins coming on the last play and, most importantly, they have actually lost the first down rate and yards per play battle by all three games, with their +5 turnover margin across the three games being the primary driver of their close victories. 

Unfortunately for the Bengals, yards per play and first down rate tend to be significantly more predictive of future winning than winning percentage or point differential, while turnover margin is highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. The Bengals, for example, had an even turnover margin in the regular season, despite facing one of the easiest schedules in the league. They weren’t particularly good in first down rate or yards per play in the regular season either, ranking 18th in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play. That was the 3rd worst among 14 playoff qualifiers.

It’s possible the Bengals could continue beating the odds, but it’s unlikely and I would bet against it, especially against a team like the Rams, who have legitimately been one of the best teams in the league this season. They rank 9th, 6th, 5th, and 3rd in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, special teams, and mixed efficiency, making them probably the most well-balanced team in the league. When you factor in that they’ll at least have some homefield advantage with this game being in Los Angeles, I have the Rams calculated as at least 7 point favorites, so we’re getting significant line value with them at -4.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Los Angeles -4

Confidence: High

2017 NFL Draft Redo

stevenlourie NFL Draft Redos

1. Cleveland Browns – QB Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech)

The Browns are happy with Myles Garrett, their original #1 overall pick, who has developed into one of the best defensive players in the league, but, if they could do this over, it would be a no brainer decision to select Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes would not have had the same success in Cleveland as he has had in Kansas City, but he’s obviously a legitimate franchise quarterback and that’s the most valuable asset in the NFL, especially when you take into account that he is still only 26.

2. Chicago Bears – QB Deshaun Watson (Clemson)

The Bears moved up to select a quarterback here originally, but they took the wrong one, taking Mitch Trubisky with Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson on the board. In this do over, they wouldn’t make the same mistake and would end up with the franchise quarterback they have lacked for years. Watson missed all of 2021 with off-the-field problems and has an uncertain future, but he’s still a franchise quarterback in his mid 20s who could easily put his off-the-field issues behind him and have a long productive career.

3. San Francisco 49ers – DE TJ Watt (Wisconsin)

The 49ers fleeced the Bears into giving them extra picks to move up for Mitch Trubisky, but they made just as bad of an actual draft pick as the Bears, as defensive end Solomon Thomas ended up with just 6 sacks in 48 games in three seasons in San Francisco. TJ Watt obviously has had a lot more success, totalling 72 sacks, 82 hits, and a 14.3% pressure rate in his career, despite frequent double teams. He would add to an already dangerous defensive line in San Francisco, which had drafted DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead in the previous two drafts and went on to add Nick Bosa two years later.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Myles Garrett (Texas A&M)

The original #1 pick in this draft, Garrett falls out of the top-3 in this redo, but not due to any fault of his own, as Mahomes and Watson play a more valuable position, while Watt gets the slight edge over Garrett among edge defenders. As good as Watt is, that edge is very slight, as Garrett has added 58.5 sacks, 61 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in his career, despite also being frequently double teamed. In the short term, Garrett would also add to an already dominant defensive line in Jacksonville with Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, and Dante Fowler all surpassing 8 sacks in 2017, while giving them a long-term building block, with the three aforementioned defensive linemen all elsewhere by the 2020 season.

5. Tennessee Titans – WR Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington)

The Titans selected wide receiver Corey Davis here originally and he isn’t a bad player, but obviously the Titans would have been better off taking Cooper Kupp, who has developed into one of the best wide receivers in the league. Despite missing time with a 2018 torn ACL, Kupp ranks 6th, 9th, and 8th in the NFL in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns since entering the league in 2017, including a 2021 season in which he led the league in all three of those metrics.

6. New York Jets – TE George Kittle (Iowa)

The Jets originally selected Jamal Adams here and he gave them three good years while netting them two first round picks in return in a trade with Seattle before the 2020 season, but Adams has not been the same since joining the Seahawks and would not go this high in a re-draft. Instead, the Jets take one of the best all-around players in the league, tight end George Kittle. Kittle has a history of injuries, which is a concern, and tight ends aren’t usually drafted this high, but when he’s healthy, he’s been among the most valuable non-quarterbacks in the league since his breakout second season in 2018 and would be a huge addition for a Jets team who had just 18 catches by a tight end in the 2016 season before this draft and that has not had a consistent starter at the position in the years since.

7. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Ryan Ramczyk (Wisconsin)

Mike Williams wasn’t a bad pick here, but the Chargers have needed offensive line help more than wide receiver help in recent years and Ryan Ramczyk is on another level from Williams as well, as he’s been one of the best right tackles in the league since his rookie year and is arguably the best right now. Right tackle has been a position where the Chargers have consistently had a problem for years, one that was not solved by them giving a big contract to veteran free agent Bryan Bulaga during the 2020 off-season.

8. Carolina Panthers – RB Christian McCaffrey (Stanford)

Christian McCaffrey would be tough to place because he’s shown himself to be one of the best offensive skill position players in the league when healthy, while also missing most of the past two seasons with injury and playing a position that has been devalued in the league. However, I don’t think the Panthers would go elsewhere in a redo, as they have remained committed to a running back who they gave a 4-year, 64 million dollar extension two off-seasons ago before his recent string of injuries.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – RB Alvin Kamara (Tennessee)

The Bengals drafted a bust of a wide receiver in John Ross here originally, but it didn’t really matter, as the Bengals still had Tyler Boyd and AJ Green and, while Green eventually moved on, the Bengals replaced him with Tee Higgins and JaMarr Chase to give themselves probably the best wide receiver trio in the NFL. Instead, the Bengals address another position of need here and take running back Alvin Kamara. The Bengals went on to select Joe Mixon in the second round of this draft originally and he’s a solid player, but Kamara gives them a higher upside playmaker at the position. Since entering the league in 2017, Kamara ranks 2nd in the NFL in all-purpose yards and 1st in total offensive touchdowns.

10. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Chris Godwin (Penn State)

The Chiefs miss out on Patrick Mahomes in this draft, but they still had Alex Smith, who was not a bad signal caller, and they have the opportunity to give him a third talented playmaker to work with alongside Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Godwin didn’t get into the starting lineup until year three in Tampa Bay and he has had some injury issues, but he’s still averaged over 1000 yards per 16 games in his career and would have gotten the opportunity to play earlier in Kansas City. Even coming off of a torn ACL in late 2021, Godwin figures to become one of the highest paid wide receivers in the league in free agency this off-season, after spending last season on the franchise tag, totaling a 98/1103/5 slash line in just 14 games.

11. New Orleans Saints – CB Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State)

The Saints came out of the 2017 NFL Draft with the most talent, which means they will be the losers of this redraft. They have already lost a couple key players they originally drafted this year in Ryan Ramczyk and Alvin Kamara and will continue to lose talent as this draft goes on, but they can at least keep their original pick here at 11, Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore has been a little inconsistent, but overall has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league in his career, leading to the Saints locking him up long-term on a 5-year, 97.603 million dollar extension.

12. Houston Texans – CB Tre’Davious White (LSU)

Tre’Davious White is the other top cornerback to come out of this draft. A torn ACL late in 2021 hurts his stock a little and the Saints wouldn’t pick him over Lattimore in a redo regardless, but the Texans need talent wherever they can get it, given the mismanagement of their roster that is to come in the later days of the Bill O’Brien era, and White is one of the top cornerbacks in the league when healthy, while otherwise missing just three games in his career prior to the ACL tear.

13. Arizona Cardinals – S Budda Baker (Washington)

The Cardinals originally took Haason Reddick here, who eventually turned into a good player, but he took three years to develop, had his fifth year option declined, and then left after his one good season in Arizona. Fortunately, the Cardinals had a little better luck with second round pick Budda Baker, a valuable starter for them over the past five seasons and a player they extended on a 4-year, 59 million dollar deal. In this redraft, they use their first round pick to keep him.

14. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State)

The Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2017, but they didn’t have a featured running back, instead relying on a committee led by LeGarrette Blount, who was not brought back for 2018. Miles Sanders became the starter in 2019 and has remained their top running back for three years since, but the Eagles would obviously be upgrading on him by adding Dalvin Cook, who has shaken off early career injuries to become one of the best all-around running backs in the league over the past three seasons. Since 2019, he ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards from scrimmage and 3rd in offensive touchdowns.

15. Indianapolis Colts – S Marcus Williams (Utah)

The Colts drafted Malik Hooker here originally, but his once promising career was derailed by injuries. Marcus Williams, originally a second round pick of the Saints, has developed into what Hooker was supposed to be, a ballhawk single high safety in the mold of Earl Thomas. After playing the 2021 season on the franchise tag with the Saints, Williams figures to become one of the highest paid safeties in the league this off-season wherever he signs.

16. Baltimore Ravens – CB Marlon Humphrey (Alabama)

Marlon Humphrey is not quite as good as Marshon Lattimore or Tre’Davious White, but he is almost as good and the Ravens are obviously happy with their original selection, extending him on a 5-year, 97.5 million dollar deal that makes him the third highest paid cornerback in the league in average annual value. They wouldn’t want a redo in a scenario where there isn’t an obvious upgrade available to them. 

17. Washington Redskins – DT Jonathan Allen (Alabama)

Here is another team content with their original pick, as Jonathan Allen has developed into one of the better interior defenders in the league, with his best season coming in 2021, when he ranked 3rd among interior defenders on PFF and totaled 9 sacks, 15 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in 17 games, only behind Chris Jones and ahead of Aaron Donald in pass rush productivity. In total, he has 26 sacks, 42 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 69 career games, as part of a dominant Redskins’ defensive line. 

18. Tennessee Titans – DE Trey Hendrickson (Florida Atlantic)

Brian Orakpo had double digit sacks for the Titans in 2016, but he was in his age 30 season and played just two more underwhelming years, while the Titans didn’t have an edge defender with double digit sacks again until 2021. Even in 2021, they could still use another talented edge defender and, while Hendrickson took a few years to develop as a backup on the Saints loaded depth chart, he would have opportunities to play earlier in Tennessee and could potentially have broken out quicker. Even if the Titans would have to wait, the wait would be worth it for a player who has totaled 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate over the past two seasons, first with the Saints and then with the Bengals after signing a 4-year, 60 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – S Marcus Maye (Florida)

The Buccaneers had needs all over their defense in 2017 and for several years after. Safety Justin Evans was their second round pick in this draft, but he never developed and headlined an underwhelming safety group in 2017 that included veterans at the end of their line in Chris Conte and TJ Ward, with Conte playing just one more season in 2018 and Ward’s career ending after 2017. Marcus Maye, who has developed into one of the better safeties in the league, would be a much better choice. Franchise tagged by the Jets last off-season, Maye’s free agency is complicated by a down 2021 season and a November torn achilles, but he was PFF’s 21st ranked safety in 2019 and their 4th ranked safety in 2020, so he could be a value free agent signing.

20. Denver Broncos – OT Dion Dawkins (Temple)

The Broncos originally used this pick on Garret Bolles, who has started 77 games for the Broncos in five seasons and was kept long-term on a 4-year, 68 million dollar contract, but that came after a frustrating penalty habit led to the Broncos declining his 5th year option for 2021, before his cleaned up the problem in a breakout 2020 season. In this redo, the Broncos take a more consistent option in Dion Dawkins, who received a 4-year, 58.3 million dollar extension of his own from the Bills, with whom he has started 74 career games.

21. Detroit Lions – S Jamal Adams (LSU)

Jamal Adams was tough to place in this redraft because he was one of the best safeties in the league early in his career with the Jets, finishing 3rd among safeties on PFF in 2018 and 4th in 2019, before getting traded to the Seahawks and falling to 47th in 2020 and 66th in 2021, two seasons both ended by injury after 12 games. The Lions have lacked high end talent on defense like Adams appeared to be early in his career, but made the playoffs at 9-7 in 2016, so they need to take a risk here, picking outside of the top-20, if they hope to find one of those high end talent players.

22. Miami Dolphins – RB Aaron Jones (UTEP)

The Dolphins have had running back problems for years, with their last thousand yard rusher being Jay Ajayi in 2016, before he was traded to the Eagles early in the 2017 season. They tried to sign Aaron Jones as a free agent last off-season, even outbidding the Packers, but he chose to take slightly less money to remain in Green Bay on a 4-year, 48 million dollar deal. Jones returned to a slightly reduced role in 2021 due to the emergence of second year player AJ Dillon, but he finished with his third straight season of 1,200+ yards from scrimmage and 10+ touchdowns and has a career average of 5.06 yards per carry, 2nd most in the NFL by a running back with at least 800 carries since 2017. He might not be quite as successful away from Aaron Rodgers, but he would still be a big upgrade for the Dolphins.

23. New York Giants – OT Taylor Moton (Western Michigan)

The Giants had offensive line problems in 2016 and they continued in 2017 and beyond, even remaining a problem in 2021 and likely into the future unless the Giants make major upgrades this off-season. In this redraft, the Giants lock down the right tackle position for years to come with Taylor Moton, one of the better right tackles in the league and a player who has made 67 straight starts for the Panthers, who selected him in the 2nd round in 2017. Carolina also extended him on a 4-year, 72 million dollar extension that pays him deservedly among the top right tackles in the league.

24. Oakland Raiders – RB Joe Mixon (Oklahoma)

The Raiders were led in rushing by a 31-year-old Marshawn Lynch in 2017 and he was just about done, so they needed a running back of the future. They used a first round pick on Josh Jacobs in 2019, but Mixon would solve the problem faster while giving them a better running back with more three down ability. Mixon has surpassed 1,300 yards from scrimmage in three of five seasons in Cincinnati, including 1,519 yards from scrimmage in 2021, 8th most in the NFL.

25. Cleveland Browns – WR Mike Williams (Clemson)

Adding Patrick Mahomes should automatically make the Browns significantly better than the 0-16 they were in 2017, but Mahomes is still entering a situation where their leading receivers were a backup running back and two tight ends, with no Browns wide receiver surpassing 357 yards receiving in 2017. Mike Williams hasn’t quite lived up to being the 7th pick in this draft, but he has a pair of thousand yard seasons opposite Keenan Allen and figures to be paid well as a free agent this off-season, if the Chargers don’t franchise tag him. He’d be an obvious upgrade for a Browns team that still has wide receiver problems to this day, even after giving up a first round pick and other assets to acquire Odell Beckham.

26. Atlanta Falcons – DE Haason Reddick (Temple)

Has any team needed anything longer than the Falcons have needed edge help? I feel like edge defender has been near the top of their needs in every draft dating back to the later days of John Abraham, who left the Falcons after the 2012 season. Their problem actually goes back further than that as somehow they haven’t had more than 39 sacks in a season since all the way back in 2004. Haason Reddick took a few years to develop, but that could be because the Cardinals were using him incorrectly prior to his breakout 2020 season. Between that season and last season in Carolina, Reddick has totaled 23.5 sacks, 19 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate over the past two seasons, while maintaining the athleticism to drop in coverage if needed. Reddick took a one-year prove it deal with the Panthers last off-season and it figures to pay off, as he’s likely to break the bank in his second trip to free agency this off-season.

27. Buffalo Bills – OLB Matt Milano (Boston College)

The Bills had a strong draft in 2017 and have already missed out on a pair of Pro-Bowlers they drafted this year, cornerback Tre’Davious White and left tackle Dion Dawkins. Milano has not made a Pro-Bowl, but that’s more of an oversight than anything, as Milano has consistently played at a borderline Pro-Bowl level, including a 2021 season in which he ranked 17th among off ball linebackers on PFF as a 16-game starter for one of the top defenses in the league.

28. Dallas Cowboys – CB Chidobe Awuzie (Colorado)

The Cowboys whiffed badly with Taco Charlton here, selecting a player who had just 4 sacks for the Cowboys in 27 games with the team, before bouncing around the league as a journeyman. Luckily the Cowboys redeemed themselves by selecting Chidobe Awuzie in the second round, who developed into an above average starting cornerback in Dallas. After a down 2020 year, in large part due to poor coaching on Mike Nolan’s defense, Awuzie signed a 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal with the Bengals last off-season, which has proven to be a steal, as Awuzie has bounced back with the best season of his career, ranking 2nd among cornerbacks on PFF.  The Cowboys have one dominant cornerback in Trevon Diggs, but letting Awuzie walk is probably one they’d like to have back, as he likely would have fared much better in Dan Quinn’s system than he did in Mike Nolan’s.

29. Cleveland Browns – S John Johnson (Boston College)

The Browns addressed offense with their first two picks and now address defense and take a safety, which is the position they addressed with the 25th overall pick originally, taking Jabrill Peppers. Peppers was never great for them though and was traded to the Giants in the Odell Beckham trade, with the Browns eventually fixing their problem at safety by signing John Johnson to a 3-year, 33.75 million dollar deal last off-season. In this scenario, they add him earlier and get an upgrade at safety with a player who has finished in the top-11 among safeties on PFF in three of five seasons in the league.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers – WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (USC)

The Steelers lose out on TJ Watt, their original pick here, as he is way too good to be close to being available with the 30th pick in a redo. They do keep their second round pick though. Smith-Schuster hasn’t been the same without Antonio Brown opposite him, but he did finish 5th in the NFL in receiving yards in his 2nd season in the league in 2018 opposite Brown, which also happened to be the last time Ben Roethlisberger was capable of throwing downfield consistently. Still only 25, he could easily bounce back if he gets an upgrade at quarterback and stays healthy following an injury plagued 2021 season.

31. San Francisco 49ers – WR Kenny Golladay (Northern Illinois)

Kenny Golladay’s stock is down after an injury plagued 2020 season and a down 2021 season in his first season on a 4-year, 72 million dollar deal with the Giants, but he had back-to-back thousand yard seasons in 2018 and 2019, so the 49ers take a chance on him and address a big position of need. The 2017 49ers were led in receiving by Marquise Goodwin, whose 962 receiving yards are more than he has had in four seasons since, while no other wide receiver surpassed 500 yards in 2017.

32. New Orleans Saints – RB Austin Ekeler (Western Colorado)

The Saints don’t get Alvin Kamara in this redraft, but they are able to get a player who has a similar skill set and could thrive in their system with Drew Brees. Ekeler took a little bit of time to develop and has missed some time with injury, but he finished 6th in the NFL in yards from scrimmage in 2021 and tied with first in offensive touchdowns. His 216 catches since 2019 are the most in the NFL over that time period by a running back, five more than 2nd place Alvin Kamara.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 NFC Championship

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Conference Championship Picks, 2021 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Rams

San Francisco 49ers (12-7) at Los Angeles Rams (14-5)

It’s well known that the 49ers have dominated this matchup recently, winning six straight meetings, including two this season. However, it’s unclear how much that really matters. Historically, teams that have won six straight matchups against their opponent do win that seventh game at a 60.1% clip, but that is usually because the team is better in general and not because they happen to “have their number.” When we look at underdogs, like the 49ers are this week, that winning percentage drops to 34.5% and they only even cover the spread at a 50.2% clip. That alone isn’t a reason to take the Rams, but the Rams are also the healthier and more talented team at home. 

One of the least injury affected teams in the league this season, the Rams actually did have some late season absences, but, aside from safety Jordan Fuller, all have since returned, with center Brian Allen, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, tight end Tyler Higbee, and right tackle Rob Havenstein all missing time returned in recent weeks and safety Taylor Rapp and left tackle Andrew Whitworth set to join them this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, have had many more injury issues this season and, while they may be healthier now than they have been, they will still have their quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and their stud left tackle Trent Williams playing at less than 100% with injuries that could be reaggravated and cause them to be knocked out of the game. 

There isn’t a big gap between these two teams, with the Rams ranking just 1.5 points better in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, but my roster rankings have the Rams about 2.5 points better with injuries factored in and, with the Rams having at least some homefield advantage, this line of 3.5 might be a little low, especially since the margin of victory in conference championship games is actually higher than in the regular season. If this was the regular season, this would be a no confidence pick, but I like the Rams a little bit more because this is a post-season game.

Los Angeles Rams 27 San Francisco 49ers 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -3.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 AFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Conference Championship Picks, 2021 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chiefs, NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals (12-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-5)

These two teams met in Cincinnati a few weeks ago, with the Bengals pulling the home upset as 4-point underdogs in a last second victory, coming back from 11 points down at halftime. This matchup is in Kansas City, but that is not the only reason the odds are against the Bengals repeating what they did last time, as teams are just 6-12 ATS as underdogs in the playoffs against a non-divisional opponent they beat as underdogs in the regular season. 

The spreads oddsmakers set tend to be more accurate than public perception, so if they are making a team underdogs twice, it’s usually for a good reason and, in fact, odds makers seem to usually set the line too low for the rematch, likely intentionally, in hopes of trapping some bettors on the underdog. That seems to be the case here, as the Chiefs are a completely different level than the Bengals, even when you take into account that the Bengals beat the Chiefs previously. 

The Bengals entered the post-season with one of the weakest strengths of schedule of any team in the league and, as a result, finished the regular season just 18th in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, which is based on predictive metrics, yards per play and first down rate, and takes strength of schedule into account. The Bengals have won twice so far in the post-season, but beating the Titans and Raiders isn’t particularly impressive, especially when you consider that they were one-score games in which the Bengals lost the yards per play and first down rate battle and almost definitely would have lost the game if not for winning the turnover battle in both games by a combined +4, which is not a predictable metric that they can continue to depend on. 

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are where they are, with a 14-5 record and hosting the AFC Championship, despite one of the toughest schedules in the league and despite just a +3 turnover margin (including playoffs). In fact, winning turnover margin by a significant margin has been about the only way to beat the Chiefs this year, as the Chiefs started 3-4 in large part due to a -10 turnover margin, but have won 11 of 12 since then (6-1 against playoff qualifiers) and have flipped their turnover margin to +13 over that stretch. 

The Chiefs’ defense also has been a lot better since the start of the season, due to improved health, with key players like safety Tyrann Mathieu, cornerback Charvarius Ward, edge defender Frank Clark, and interior defender Chris Jones all missing time early in the season and returning, as well as the addition of edge defender Melvin Ingram in a mid-season trade. The Chiefs’ defense had some injury problems last week against the Bills, missing Mathieu and talented cornerback Rashad Fenton, but both are expected back this week.

The Chiefs defense still only ranks 28th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but they have been at least passable since their horrendous start and, despite their low ranked defense on the season, the Chiefs still rank 2nd in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency, led by a top ranked offense and a 2nd ranked special teams. If their defense can be even a complementary unit, which it can when it’s healthy, the Chiefs are the best team in the league, which they are right now, about 10.5 points above average in my roster rankings, while the Bengals are just 2 points above average.

This line may seem high at seven, especially for a conference championship game, but conference championships tend to be blowouts actually at a higher rate than regular season games, with the average margin of victory being 12.48 points, as opposed to 11.62 points in the regular season. On top of that, favorites of 6 or more are 11-4 ATS in a conference championship game, with all fifteen winning straight up by an average of 15.4 points per game. Usually when the oddsmakers think a conference championship is uneven, they are actually understating it, which is what I think is the case here. I am very confident the Chiefs can cover the seven points and win by multiple scores.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas CIty -7

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 NFC Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2021 NFL Divisional Round Picks, 2021 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Rams

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)

These two teams met in Los Angeles back in week 3, with the Rams pulling the home upset as 1.5-point underdogs, but this game is in Tampa Bay and the Rams regular season win actually works against their chances of covering this spread. In total, teams are 46-59 ATS in a rematch in the post-season against a non-divisional opponent who they beat in the regular season, including 5-12 ATS as underdogs after previously winning as underdogs.

These teams are not the same as they were in week 3, as the Buccaneers lost starting wide receivers Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin, starting running back Leonard Fournette is legitimately questionable, and starting offensive linemen Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Jensen figure to be limited, while the Rams added talented edge defender Von Miller and wide receiver Odell Beckham, but lost key wide receiver Robert Woods, stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth, and starting safeties Jordan Fuller and Taylor Rapp. All of that more or less evens out, with the Buccaneers holding a 2-point edge in my roster rankings and being favored by 4 points on my calculated line, after being the slightly better of these two teams in the regular season.

Given that, we are getting some line value with the Buccaneers as just 2.5-point home favorites, as the public seems to be paying more attention to Tampa Bay’s injuries and not as much to the Rams’ injuries, while putting too much stock into the result of the week 3 matchup between these two teams. Tom Brady has also been close to automatic in his career in tough games like this where all he has to do to cover is win, going 57-27 ATS in his career as an underdogs or favorite of less than three points, including 10-3 ATS in the post-season. I wouldn’t like the Buccaneers as much at 3, but they’re bettable at 2.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 Los Angeles Rams 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -2.5

Confidence: Medium