Why do I only rank the top 15? I do this because no one really plays in leagues of more than 14 or so players so these are the only players you should be considering as QB1s. As for QB2s, that’s another whole article. More on that later.
1. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)
In 14 and a half games last year, Aaron Rodgers threw for 3922 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Spread that out over 16 games, and you get 4328 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, which might even be an underestimate based off of how well this guy played down the stretch and into the playoffs last year.
In the 2nd half (6.5 games) and the playoffs (4 games), he threw for 3005 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 4 picks. Spread that over 16 games and you get 4579 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. If he plays 16 games, I think he gets somewhere in between 4328-4579 yards, 31-38 touchdowns, and 6-12 interceptions.
On top of this, he is mobile with rushing totals of 207 yards, 316 yards, and 356 yards in his first 3 years in the league, as well as 4, 5, and 4 rushing touchdowns. The issue is health. He plays a style of football that leads to a lot of injuries and though he’s tough and can play well injured, there are certainly no guarantees he plays 16 games.
Projection: 4400 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 2 fumbles (345 pts standard, 411 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
2. Michael Vick (Philadelphia)
8/26/11: The Eagles offense looks out of sync right now. I don’t know if it’s Maclin being out or defensive coordinators having a whole offseason to figure out how to stop Vick, but this is not good for Vick’s fantasy value. Maclin should be back week 1, but he won’t be 100%. Normally I don’t like to overreact to the preseason, but Vick is being drafted as high as the top 5 as a quarterback. This has to be worrisome.
Michael Vick was the leading fantasy scorer at quarterback last year despite missing 4 and a half games with injury. He’ll surely be the top fantasy scorer at quarterback this year, right? Not so fast. Vick really slowed down late last year. Teams were finally figuring out how to slow him down.
In his last 7 games, including the playoffs, he had 1960 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 367 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 4480 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 839 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns. However, keep in mind, he’s only played 16 games once in his career. He’s a smaller quarterback who takes a lot of hits. He won’t be healthy for 16 games. I’d say 14 games is a reasonable estimate for him.
Projection: 3700 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 700 rushing yards, 9 rushing touchdowns, 5 fumbles (322 pts standard, 366 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
3. Tom Brady (New England)
Tom Brady played some of the best and most efficient football ever seen down the stretch last year, becoming the league’s first unanimous MVP, before it all came to a crashing halt against the Jets. In his final 7 games, he threw for 1875 yards, 20 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Spread out of 16 games, that’s 4286 yards, 46 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He’ll throw some picks next year, but with his two rookie tight ends now in their 2nd season, one could expect those numbers to even increase.
There are a few issues. One, the Jets wrote the book on how to stop this Patriots offense in their playoff win. It’s unclear whether they were simply the first team to have the personnel to play in a way that can stop the Patriots or whether they were the first team to figure out if you clog the middle and leave their outside receivers one on one with your cornerbacks, it disrupts what they try to do.
I think it was a little bit of both. Not every team is going to have Cromartie and Revis on the outside to stick one on one on the Patriots’ outside receivers, but teams will try to do what the Jets did last year against the Patriots. This is a copycat league. Fortunately for Brady, Belichick is great at making offensive adjustments. Unfortunately for Brady, they won’t have a full offseason, thanks to the lockout, to make those adjustments.
Projection: 4200 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 1 fumble (311 pts standard, 387 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
4. Tony Romo (Dallas)
There are several reasons to like Romo this year. One, he’s healthy. Before last year’s injury, he had played all 16 games in 3 of his past 4 seasons. Two, he was playing great fantasy wise in his first 5 games last year before getting hurt, throwing for 1566 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 7 picks. Stretched across 16 games, that’s 5011 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions.
Third, his coach is now Jason Garrett. Garrett was able to turn Jon Kitna into a passable fantasy option late last year. In 6 and a half games last year under Garrett, Kitna threw for 1616 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Across 16 games, that’s 4650 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. I think that might be Romo’s floor if he stays healthy this year.
Fourth, their offensive line is much improved with Tyron Smith at right tackle. Fifth, their defense and running game are still a mess so he’ll throw a lot. Their defense actually got worse once Wade Phillips was fired and Garrett took over. Plus, it’s not like Romo is a stranger to throwing 4000+ yards, throwing 4211 in 2007 and 4483 in 2009. The only issue with him is his tendency to struggle around fantasy playoff time.
Projection: 4650 yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (280 pts standard, 342 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
5. Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)
In his 2nd year, Freeman threw for 3451 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, making him the 7th rated quarterback in fantasy. Even more impressive was that he got better as the year went on. In the 11 games where LeGarrette Blount got 10+ carries (week 7 on), Freeman threw for 2408 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 3 picks. Over 16 games, that’s 3503 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He also threw for at least 237 yards in each of his final 4 games. The only issue is he’ll have a stronger schedule this year and handle high expectations for the first time in his career.
Projection: 3600 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 6 fumbles (267 pts standard, 321 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
6. Drew Brees (New Orleans)
Like Manning, Brees had a down year in 2010 with 4620 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions. However, if you ignore those 22 interceptions, that’s a very good year. If he can get that interception total down into the mid teens, he could definitely be a top 5 fantasy quarterback again. That interception total was his career high by 4.
Between a Super Bowl hangover, a lack of a running game, and a bad knee, his down year was definitely explainable. He won’t have any of those 3 things this year, though a stronger running game with Mark Ingram could cut his attempts from 658, which he had in 2010, a career high. Expect his attempts to be closer to the 514 he had in 2009 with a better running game, but also his YPA to be closer to the 8.5 he had in 2009 than the 7.0 he had in 2010.
Projection: 4550 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 10 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 7 fumbles (263 pts standard, 325 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
7. Philip Rivers (San Diego)
Rivers threw a career high 541 times last year after totals of 460, 460, 478, and 486 in his first 4 years as a starter and became a top 5 fantasy quarterback because of this. A lot of this had to do with an unreliable running game and a team that struggled to stay around .500.
With a healthy Ryan Mathews, they should run better this year and they can’t possible have worse special teams play this year than they had last year so that number should drop down to around 500. However, his YPA totals from his past 3 years are 8.4, 8.8, and 8.7 so he’ll make the most of his 500 or so attempts, all while limiting his interceptions. His 13 interceptions last year were a 3 year high.
Projection: 4300 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 4 fumbles (262 pts standard, 230 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
8. Matt Ryan (Atlanta)
Matt Ryan has improved as a fantasy quarterback every season in his 3 year career, ranking 8th last year. I expect him to continue to improve in his 4th year as he finally has someone other than Roddy White to throw to. Whether or not you agree with their decision to move up 21 spots to take Julio Jones 6th, there’s no denying the impact that Julio Jones has on their offense will be a positive one.
Projection: 3800 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 110 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 3 fumbles (257 pts standard, 317 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
9. Sam Bradford (St. Louis)
Bradford had a great rookie year, but wasn’t a great fantasy player. However, there are three reasons why the latter will change this year. One, he’s no longer a rookie. Rookie quarterbacks always struggle, but Bradford didn’t. Two, his receiving corps will be better after they spent 2nd-4th round picks on receivers.
Three, he has a new offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. McDaniels turned Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton into 3600+ yard and 21+ touchdown passers. Bradford could easily throw for 4000 yards in this scheme.
Projection: 4050 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (241 pts standard, 291 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
10. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh)
In 12 games last year, Roethlisberger threw for 3200 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 5 picks. If you spread that over 16 games, that’s very impressive, but he’s only once played a full 16 game season in his career. Still, spread that over 15 games and you get 4000 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. You take that out of a QB1. The only potential downside is that the 2 worst seasons of his career came the year after making the Super Bowl, though we have yet to see how he responds after losing the Super Bowl.
Projection: 3950 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 150 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 4 fumbles (241 pts standard, 281 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
11. Matt Schaub (Houston)
Matt Schaub threw 583 times in 2009 and 574 times in 2010. I expect that number to be lower this season. Not only does Houston finally have a good running game with Arian Foster and 2010 2nd round pick Ben Tate healthy to fall back on, Houston’s defense will be better this year with Kareem Jackson in his 2nd year, the additions of JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, Brandon Harris, Johnathan Joseph, and Danieal Manning, as well as a healthy DeMeco Ryans and Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. I expect Schaub to throw around 550 times this year instead so his yards will decrease.
Projection: 4250 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 5 fumbles (231 pts standard, 277 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
12. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)
8/25/11: Peyton Manning is not expected to be ready for week 1 according to higher ups in the Indianapolis organization. The Colts have signed Kerry Collins as insurance. The last time Peyton Manning missed the preseason was 2008. It took him 7 games to get right. In those 7 games, the Colts went 3-4 and Peyton Manning was 162-265 (61.1%) for 1754 yards (6.6 YPA) 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.
Let’s say Manning misses one game, and then in his next 7 has numbers similar or slightly worse than what he had in 7 games in 2008 (remember, this is a more serious injury and he’s 3 years old) and then in the 2nd half he has vintage Peyton Manning numbers only cut in half (180-270 for 2100 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions), that gives him this fantasy line for the season: 3854 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.
That gives him 226 fantasy points. That puts him right around what Eli Manning had in 2010 (221). Eli Manning finished 10th in quarterback fantasy points. I don’t think that’s a completely unreasonable projection for Peyton this season. I really don’t. He has a great supporting cast on offense so I’m projecting him slightly higher than that, but not much. Stay away from this guy. He’s going to get over drafted in your league.
8/20/11: Colts Owner Jim Irsay says that the team is preparing for the possibility that Manning misses week 1. My money’s still on him starting, but this hurts his fantasy stock. He could have a slow start to his season.
Peyton Manning was absolutely terrible in 2010, throwing for 4700 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Hopefully my sarcasm translates through the internet. Point is, last year’s down year for Manning was not even bad. He still finished 4th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. There’s a lot of reason to believe he’ll be better this year.
The Colts added offensive linemen with their first two picks and they didn’t do a ton to fix their running game which means he could have to throw the ball a league high 679 times again. His receiving corps, by default, should be healthier this year as well. His YPA will be closer to the 7.9 he had in 2009 than the 6.9 he had in 2010 and his attempts will be closer to the 679 he had in 2010 than the 571 he had in 2009. Am I crazy for thinking he could pass for 5000 yards?
Projection: Projection: 3900 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 20 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 3 fumbles (228 pts standard, 282 pts 6 pt TD leagues)
13. Matt Stafford (Detroit)
8/28/11: Wow. I had questions with Stafford going into this season because he has never proved himself on the field at the NFL level. However, he’s looked amazing this season, especially in the Lions’ 3rd preseason game. He went 12 for 14 with 2 touchdowns and 200 passing yards, good for a perfect passer rating. Detroit’s quarterbacks had 4001 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 16 picks last season even though Stafford only played 3 games.
Now add in the fact that Titus Young is replacing Bryant Johnson, one of the worst receivers in the league last season, in the slot, and that Stafford is much more talented than Hill and Stanton and Stafford could have 4200 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions if he plays 16 games. However, we have to take injuries into account so my projected stats for him are over 14 games. Still, he’s a nice low end QB1 with top 7-8 fantasy QB upside.
8/17/11: I didn’t have Stafford ranked in my top 15 because there are questions about his healthy and there are still questions about his ability. He’s still never proven himself in the NFL. He could be very good, but there was a point when we though David Carr, and Alex Smith, and JaMarcus Russell could have been very good. However, Stafford did look very good in his first preseason game, for what it’s worth.
Projection: 3650 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 5 fumbles (223 pts standard, 273 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
14. Eli Manning (NY Giants)
8/21/11: Eli Manning will feel the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss this season.
With 4002 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, Eli Manning should have had a strong fantasy season. He didn’t and you can blame 25 interceptions for that. I think that number drops back down into a more typical 17-19 for him. He had never had more than 20 picks before last year and a lot of those interceptions could be blamed on their receivers. I think he has better luck this year.
Projection: 3700 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 6 fumbles (214 pts standard, 268 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
15. Joe Flacco (Baltimore)
8/21/11: I should have done this update a while ago, but Flacco has lost two reliable targets in Derrick Mason and Todd Heap. Anquan Boldin is on the decline (30 catches for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 10 games last season, including playoffs) and Flacco never has looked comfortable throwing to Boldin. Mason was always the one he was comfortable throwing to and he’s gone. Lee Evans is in, but he won’t have a lot of time to learn the offense and both of his tight ends are inexperienced. He also has two rookie receivers hurt by the lockout. This will hurt his stats a bit.
Like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco has improved in every season of his 3 year career. Will he continue to improve in his 4th year? Maybe, but it’s not as certain as it is with Matt Ryan, who now gets to play with Julio Jones. Joe Flacco gets two rookie receivers, Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss, but it remains to be seen what they can give as rookies. My money is on him having a very similar 2011 season to the season he had in 2010.
Projection: 3450 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 60 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 7 fumbles (204 pts standard, 250 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
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