1. Ray Rice (Baltimore)
8/26/11: Ray Rice got all of the goal line looks in Baltimore first preseason game. It seems that Ricky Williams will be nothing but a backup. The Ravens have rushed for 33 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. If they rush for 16 or 17 this year, it’s very conceivable that Rice could get 12, plus an addition 2 through the air since he’s such a great pass catcher.
8/17/11: Even with the addition of Ricky Williams, Ray Rice could still see most of the goal line looks, at least early in the season. With Chris Johnson holding out, Rice was already my #3 fantasy back, but he gets so many yards receiving and rushing and he has a new fullback in Vonta Leach. If he can get double digit touchdowns, he could finish the season as the #2 fantasy back behind Arian Foster.
8/8/11: The Ravens signed Ricky Williams to vutlure Ray Rice’s touchdowns, much like Willis McGahee did. I think all Ray Rice owners agree with me when I say “FUCK!!!”
Foster’s loss is Ray Rice’s gain this offseason with Vonta Leach leaving from Houston go to the Baltimore Ravens to block for Rice. Rice also no longer has to worry about Willis McGahee or Le’Ron McClain stealing touchdowns from him as both have moved on to Denver and Kansas City respectively. Rice has always gotten the yards, a down year in 2010 still got him 1776 total yards and he had 2041 total yards in 2009. The touchdowns have always been the issue as he only has 12 rushing touchdowns in 2 seasons, compared to 17 by McGahee.
If Rice can continue to do what he’s been doing yards wise, helped by the addition of Vonta Leach, and score about a dozen times with McGahee gone, he should be the 2nd most valuable fantasy back this year. He’s still young. He’s still fresh. He’s still talented. He’s still on a good team. His blocking has improved and now, unless Baltimore does something like sign Clinton Portis, it looks as if he’s going to get the goal line carries.
Projection: 330 carries, 1390 rushing yards, 68 catches, 600 receiving yards, 14 total touchdowns, 2 fumbles (279 pts, 347 PPR)
2. Arian Foster (Houston)
8/28/11: Arian Foster has reinjured his hamstring. He will probably play week 1, but the key word is probably. Even Gary Kubiak said he hoped Foster could go. Even if Foster doesn’t miss any games, recurring hamstring injuries are never a good thing. He’s extremely talented, but he’s not safe as the #1 fantasy pick anymore. I have Ray Rice atop my board now and may move Adrian Peterson above Foster if we get indication in the next few days that Foster missing week 1 is a strong possibility.
Foster burst onto the scene last year, in his 2nd season after being undrafted in 2009, with 2220 total yards, 18 total touchdowns, and 66 catches to boot in PPR leagues. Though it’s unreasonable to project those stats again for Foster, there are reasons to believe he can become the top running back in fantasy once again. Foster had 313 fantasy points last year. 2nd among running backs was Adrian Peterson with 232. That’s no small gap. Foster can have a noticeably worse year than last year and still be the #1 fantasy back. He’s still going to catch a lot of passes.
He’s still going to score a lot of touchdowns in Houston’s explosive offense. He has Ben Tate coming back from injury to challenge him for carry, but Tate was only a 2nd round pick in 2010. Like Toby Gerhart, another 2nd round pick from that same year, won’t steal major carries from Adrian Peterson, Tate shouldn’t steal major carries from Foster. Plus, it’s very conceivable that the Texans run more this year supported by a much improved stop unit on defense. The only major concern with Foster is that he lost his fullback Vonta Leach, one of the best in the league, but it’s not enough to shake him from #1 here.
Projection: 320 carries, 1440 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 550 receiving yards, 16 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (289 pts, 349 PPR)
3. Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)
Once upon a time, Peterson rushed for 1760 yards in 2008 with Gus Frerotte as his starting quarterback. Donovan McNabb is an upgrade over Frerotte and the 2010 version of Brett Favre, but don’t expect him to match that yards total, or to match his 18 touchdowns from 2009, when Favre was good. Minnesota’s defense has fallen downhill. Ray Edwards is gone. Pat Williams is a shadow of his former self. Kevin Williams and Jared Allen have lost a step. The secondary is old. They won’t be able to get Peterson 363 carries this year because their defense won’t be as good.
Their offense also won’t be what it was in 2009 with the 2009 version of Favre because McNabb is not that caliber of a quarterback anymore. I don’t know if he ever was. This means Peterson can forget about getting into the end zone 18 times. Peterson also has 1198 carries in just 4 years and he wore down late last year. They have a talented backup in Toby Gerhart so there’s no need to give him the lion’s share of the carries if they don’t feel his legs can handle it. In basically 14 games, he had 283 carries last year, but even if he plays 16 this year, I have a hard time seeing him go much higher than 300 carries.
Projection: 300 carries, 1350 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 380 receiving yards, 14 total touchdowns, 2 fumbles (253 pts, 293 PPR)
4. Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh)
Mendenhall only averaged 3.9 yards per carry last year, but there are a lot of things to like about him. He’s pretty much a shoo in for 300 carries after posting 324 carries last year. There’s next to no competition for his job. 2nd, I expect a higher yards per carry this season. He’ll have his starting quarterbacks for all 16 games presumably. Willie Colon is also back at right tackle and he’s one of the best run blocking right tackles in the league.
In a weak running back class in fantasy this year, Mendenhall is one of the few backs without serious injury concerns, the opportunity to rush for 300+ carries, as well as the goal line carries, and the talent to make the most of those carries. That’s good enough for 5th this year.
Projection: 320 carries, 1380 rushing yards, 25 receptions, 210 receiving yards, 13 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (231 pts, 256 PPR)
5. Chris Johnson (Tennessee)
9/3/11: Johnson is back from his holdout and will be a go for week 1. Don’t move him into your top 3 right away, however. Johnson has yet to practice with the team. That will hurt him, especially coming out of a lockout. Remember Darrelle Revis held out all preseason last year and he wasn’t quite the same. Different position yes, but similar situation.
On top of this, Mike Munchak has said that Johnson won’t be an every down back right away. He’ll “ease” Johnson back into things, probably by giving him 15 carries per game for the first couple weeks of the season instead of the 20 per game he averaged last year. Javon Ringer stepped up in Johnson’s absence this preseason so Munchak should feel comfortable going to him a little bit more than normal for a couple weeks.
Also, Chris Johnson averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season when Vince Young was in the lineup last year and 3.8 when he wasn’t. He clearly missed defenses having to respect Young’s speed and big (albeit not accurate) arm. Matt Hasselbeck is an upgrade over Kerry Collins, but he’s not mobile and the Titans interior blocking positions all ranked among the worst in the league last year (fullback, left guard, center, right guard). They didn’t upgrade any of those 4 positions.
8/17/11 :It’s looking like Johnson’s hold out could go into the season. Once a top 4 back, I don’t see how you can use a 1st round pick on him. He wants 13 million a year (he’s nuts) and the Titans aren’t going to give that to him anytime soon. Even if he does play, he’ll be hurt by the holdout and lack of playing time like Darrelle Revis was last season. He won’t be nearly as effective as he could be if he didn’t hold out. If you do draft him, make sure it’s in the 2nd round and that you draft Javon Ringer, the lead back in his absence, as a handcuff.
CJ2K saw his YPC drop from 5.6 in 2009 to 4.3 in 2010 and a lot of that could be blamed on Tennessee’s worst interior blocking in the league. Unfortunately for him, they haven’t done anything to improve that. Fortunately for him, Matt Hasselbeck is an upgrade at quarterback over Kerry Collins, which means more running room for him and more touchdowns for this offense.
However, it’s worth noting that CJ averaged 3.8 yards per carry last year in games in which Vince Young did not throw the ball more than 10 times. Opposing defenses had to respect Young’s legs and Johnson had a lot of running room. Hasselbeck is about as mobile at this stage of his career as a statue so he won’t help him out there much, which means we could see Johnson’s YPC dip even lower than the 4.3 yards per carry it was at last year.
Projection: 310 carries, 1270 rushing yards, 44 receptions, 310 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns, 2 fumbles (226 pts, 270 PPR)
6. LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)
In 11 games with Michael Vick last year, LeSean McCoy rushed for 812 yards on 136 carries, with 51 catches for 361 yards, and 8 total touchdowns. Stretch that over 16 games and you get 198 carries for 1181 yards (6.0 YPC), 74 catches for 525 yards, and 12 total touchdowns. The problem is that Vick never plays 16 games so it’s unrealistic to stretch it out quite like that. He only averaged 3.8 yards per carry without Vick in the backfield with him and a 6.0 YPC is pretty unrealistic anyway.
Projection: 200 carries, 1060 rushing yards, 75 receptions, 550 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (215 pts, 290 PPR)
7. Steven Jackson (St. Louis)
Steven Jackson always seems to be playing with some sort of injury and with 1878 career carries, many people are worried about him suffering a major injury and/or a significant drop in YPC. Normally, running backs suffer significant drop offs after 2200 career carries, so Jackson should be in the clear for now.
That doesn’t mean he’s not an injury risk or a candidate to have his carries reduced, because of his age and his injury history. The Rams have brought in Jerious Norwood and Cadillac Williams as backups this offseason so they have more capable backups than they did last year. I think he gets less than 300 carries. The good news is that he can pass catch and that St. Louis’ offense should be better than in years past so the days of 4 touchdowns (2009) and 6 touchdowns (2010) should be done for him. They also improved their offense line with the addition of Harvey Dahl.
Projection: 280 carries, 1180 rushing yards, 49 catches, 410 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns, 1 fumble (211 pts, 260 PPR)
8. LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay)
8/28/11: LeGarrette Blount can catch passes?! After catching 5 passes all last season, Blount got 3 in their 3rd preseason game, not the first time he’s showed better hands this preseason. The Bucs don’t have a single talented, proven back behind him on the depth chart and while he won’t be the 3rd down back all the time, they may feel comfortable leaving him in on some 3rd downs. We could definitely see around 300 carries from him this season with mediocre, but not terrible pass catching stats, in addition to plenty of rushing yards and touchdowns.
8/20/11: So much for Blount as the every down back. Earnest Graham will now come into the game on obvious passing downs. However, Graham’s last decent season was 2007 and he’s 31. They still have next to nothing behind Blount on the depth chart and show no interest in signing anyone. Blount could still get close to 300 carries with Cadillac Williams gone.
8/17/11: Blount is not much of a pass catcher, but with Cadillac Williams gone, he’s staying in on 3rd downs, for lack of a better option. The Bucs have absolutely nothing behind him on the depth chart (a running back with two career carries, a 6th round rookie, and an undrafted rookie). He won’t catch a lot of passes, but he should exceed 300 carries unless the Buccaneers sign a legitimate backup for him in free agency.
In 11 games after taking over as the lead back, Blount rushed for 977 yards on 191 carries with 5 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that is 278 carries, 1420 yards, and 7 touchdowns. He’ll face tougher competition this season because Tampa Bay’s schedule is tougher, but he should get double digit touchdowns. I don’t know why he didn’t get into the end zone a lot last year, but he’s big enough to be a true touchdown threat. The only problem is he isn’t a big receiving threat.
Projection: 300 carries, 1460 rushing yards, 17 catches, 130 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns, 4 fumbles (211 pts, 228 PPR)
9. Matt Forte (Chicago)
It looks like Mike Martz was just what Forte’s career needed as Martz turned him into a mini-Marshall Faulk last season. I don’t expect anything different from him this year. If anything, he’ll put up more yards with the addition of Gabe Carimi to their offensive line. Marion Barber will be their goal line back, but it’s not like Forte’s ever been a big touchdown guy, especially on the ground, with only 6 last year. He’s always a candidate to score multiple times through the air over the course of the season though.
Projection: 240 carries, 1100 rushing yards, 55 catches, 500 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (202 pts, 257 PPR)
10. Frank Gore (San Francisco)
Frank Gore is a talented back, when healthy, but that’s the problem. He’s only played a full 16 games once and that was way back in 2006. He’s averaged just 224 carries per season over the last 3 seasons and at age 28, I don’t see that improving anytime soon. Guys who have always been snake bitten in the past don’t suddenly start having great healthy at his age.
The good news is that he has a yards per carry of 4.7 for his career and his touchdowns should fall back closer to the 13 he had in 2009 from the 5 in 2010, just with better luck. Having a better head coach and more consistency at the quarterback position should also help.
Projection: 230 carries, 1060 rushing yards, 50 catches, 430 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns, 5 fumbles (193 pts, 243 PPR)
11. Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)
8/17/11: Thomas Jones is listed as first on the depth chart. Todd Haley is nuts. Charles still has some value as a 2nd rounder because he’s so talented, but, with a tougher schedule, expect fewer carries and fewer yards per carry for Charles this season. The only way he would have been worth a first round pick is if he was the lead back, which it appears he’s still not.
Jamaal Charles is an extremely talented back who averaged 6.4 yards per carry last season, almost setting a league record in that category. The bad news is, his coach doesn’t believe in him as a 300+ carry back giving him just 230 carries last season. I don’t expect that to change this year, especially with Le’Ron McClain coming in as well. He’s also not going to get his team’s goal line carries.
I also think it’s unrealistic to believe he averages 6.4 yards per carry again this year for several reasons. For one thing, it just doesn’t happen. Charlie Weis is gone so there’s a downgrade at offensive coordinator. Also, Charles was fortunately to play 12 of his games against teams ranked 17-32nd against the run. He won’t have that luxury this year. He has a very high career YPC, but I expect his YPC this year to fall to around 5.5.
They also face a tougher schedule, which means they’re going to be playing from behind more, which means less running. The Chiefs ran the ball 556 times in 2010 and 438 times in 2009. Expect that number to be closer to the 2009 number. He still has to contend with Thomas Jones, who was listed atop the depth chart to start the preseason. Even if he out carries Jones, it should be by something by 210-180.
Projection: 210 carries, 1160 rushing yards, 45 catches, 340 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (192 pts, 237 PPR)
12. Darren McFadden (Oakland)
Darren McFadden finally had a good fantasy season last year in his 3rd season after being drafted by the Raiders 4th overall in 2008. However, I still would have a lot of worries about drafting him in the top 20 picks this year. Before he had 223 carries last year, he had never had more than 113 carries in a season thanks to injury problems. Also, last year’s 5.2 yards per carry was by far a career high. Again, injuries could derail that this year.
He also loses Robert Gallery, his best run blocker, and Michael Bush is still there to steal carries should he get hurt or struggle. Finally, the Raiders defense should be worse. Nnamdi Asomugha is gone. Michael Huff, Kamerion Wimbley, and Richard Seymour all might not try as hard this year after being rewarded with massive contracts following strong contract years. They probably won’t be able to run 504 times next year like they did last year, good for 4th most in the league.
Projection: 200 carries, 940 rushing yards, 50 catches, 490 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns, 4 fumbles (189 pts, 239 PPR)
13. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)
8/26/11: The Panthers offense is a mess right now. The Panthers are going to start Cam Newton week 1 as a rookie even though he has a mere 14 career college starts and missed most of the offseason thanks to the lockout. Newton’s rushing ability will be good for Stewart’s and Williams’ YPC. Vince Young had positive effects on Chris Johnson’s YPC. Michael Vick had a positive effect on LeSean McCoy’s YPC. Vince Young even had a positive effect on Travis Henry’s YPC in Young’s rookie year. However, Newton is still extremely raw as a passer which means there won’t be a lot of touchdowns scored in Carolina, which means Stewart and Williams won’t score much.
8/20/11: Cam Newton is going to start week 1 for the Panthers. It’s not official, but the Panthers made him their starter for their 2nd preseason game after another stinkbomb from Clausen in their first preseason game. This change should be official, which is good news for Williams. Just ask LeSean McCoy and Chris Johnson what playing alongside a mobile quarterback did for their YPC. Williams is expected to get a 2-1 split of the carries this season over Jonathan Stewart. If he can stay healthy, he should be poised for another huge year.
8/17/11: He has health problems and quarterback problems, but he’ll run behind a great offensive line and should reach 250 carries if he stays healthy as he appears to be the clear lead back. He got all of the carries with the 1st team in the Panthers’ first preseason game and he got a giant contract in the offseason.
DeAngelo Williams returns to Carolina which means he will not be a true feature back, as he could have been elsewhere. Carolina still has uncertainties as quarterbacks, which means they’ll probably run a lot and it’s possible that Williams and Jonathan Stewart both get 200+ carries, as was the case in 2009. The Panthers will also have Jeff Otah back at right tackle. Williams has a career average of 5.0 yards per carry when healthy, but he’s had injury problems in the past and, of course, he does have to contend with Stewart for carries. Carolina’s offense probably won’t score a lot either.
Projection: 250 carries, 1250 rushing yards, 25 catches, 200 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (181 pts, 206 PPR)
14. Ahmad Bradshaw (NY Giants)
8/23/11: Jacobs and Bradshaw had a 276-147 split in carries (65-35) last season. However, Jacobs and Bradshaw seem to be getting more of an even split this preseason and Tom Coughlin even said that Brandon Jacobs was underworked last season. They had a more even split in the 2nd half last year 123-79 (61-39) and a 57-47 split in the finally 4 games of last season (55-45). Several believe it could be much closert this year between the two than last year. Bradshaw is also more of an injury risk than Jacobs. Expect around a 240-180 split this season (57-43) if both are healthy. I’m giving 230 to Bradshaw and 190 to Jacobs right now because Bradshaw is more injury and fumble prone. Jacobs will also get the goal line carries.
Ahmad Bradshaw was one of my fantasy sleepers last year as he was projected to take over for Brandon Jacobs as the lead back and he did. However, I’m expecting a little bit of a dip in production from him this year. He’s always been an injury risk so the likelihood that he plays 16 games and gets 276 carries again is pretty slim. The thing that’s not going anywhere is his career 4.8 YPC, though the loss of Rich Seubert and Shaun O’Hara upfront hurts.
Projection: 230 carries, 1080 rushing yards, 42 catches, 330 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns, 5 fumbles (179 pts, 221 PPR)
15. Felix Jones (Dallas)
8/23/11: Felix Jones looks like he’ll be getting the goal line carries. Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray will still steal carries from him and Jones is still an injury risk who has never been a successful 200+ carry lead back through college and the NFL, but this helps his value.
The lead back job is his to lose. Who else is going to take it? Tashard Choice? DeMarco Murray as a 3rd round rookie off a lockout shortened offseason? The question is whether or not Jones can handle it. He hasn’t been a lead back in forever. He wasn’t even one in college. He’s a pass catcher and I expect him to get more carries than he did in 2010, 185, but he’s not going to be the goal line back.
Projection: 210 carries, 920 rushing yards, 50 catches, 420 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns, 2 fumbles (178 pts, 228 PPR)
16. Knowshon Moreno (Denver)
Knowshon Moreno should be feeling very fortunate that the Broncos were outbid for DeAngelo Williams. Now he gets to stay the lead back in John Fox’s offense as the Broncos had to settle for Willis McGahee. John Fox loves run heavy offenses and Moreno will benefit from that. McGahee should get a bunch of carries as well, but there’s going to be enough carries to go around for McGahee to get around 150 and Moreno, barring injury, to get about 250.
He’s not going to run for a high average, but he still has a good chance to run for 1000+ yards for the first time in his career. He’s also a good pass catcher. The only thing is he won’t score a lot in Denver’s offense, especially since McGahee will probably be getting the goal line carries.
Projection: 250 carries, 1050 rushing yards, 35 catches, 320 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns, 4 fumbles (177 pts, 212 PPR)
17. Chris Wells (Arizona)
8/20/11: Ryan Williams is done for the season. This is excellent news for Wells. The pick of Williams in the 2nd round did two things for Chris Wells. It got rid of Tim Hightower, who stole a lot of carries from Wells last year. It also motivated him as he’s reportedly in the best shape of his career. LaRod Stephens-Howling will come in on obvious passing downs, but Wells is going to get the lion’s share of the carries for the Cardinals. Provided he stays healthy, the former first round pick could finish the season as a top 15 or even top 10 running back.
The Cardinals spent a 2nd round pick on Ryan Williams, but Wells still had a great offseason. The Cardinals brought in Kevin Kolb to stabilize the quarterback position. They also traded away Tim Hightower. As a rookie, I don’t see Williams being anymore of a threat to Wells than Hightower would have been. He’s coming off a lockout shortened offseason and the Cardinals have said that Wells will be the lead guy. He should be motivated thanks to the Cardinals drafting Williams, much like DeAngelo Williams was when they drafted Jonathan Stewart, or Joseph Addai in Indianapolis with Donald Brown. If he can stay healthy, he should be a solid RB3.
Projection: 250 carries, 1080 rushing yards, 15 catches, 150 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (177 pts, 192 PPR)
18. Shonn Greene (NY Jets)
8/17/11: Greene got all the first and second down carries with the first team in their first preseason game. It appears that LT, who was almost cut in the offseason, will be nothing more than a 3rddown back and that the 3rd year Greene will finally get his chance to be their lead back.
Shonn Greene should get more carries this season. The team considered cutting LaDainian Tomlinson in the offseason, eventually settling on a restructured contract with him. The 25-year-old Greene also got 98 2nd half carries to 96 for the 32-year-old LT, as opposed to LT getting the edge 123 to 87 in the first half so there was already a shift last year. Rex Ryan also said the Greene would be getting more work this year. The two combined for 404 carries last season with Greene getting 185 of those carries. It’s not unreasonable to predict a 240-160 Greene to LT split this year as Tomlinson enters the twilight of his career.
Projection: 270 carries, 1190 rushing yards, 20 catches, 150 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns, 4 fumbles (174 pts, 194 PPR)
19. Michael Turner (Atlanta)
Michael Turner has a lot working against him. He’s 29 years old and just led the league in carries, the 2nd time he’s done that in 3 years. The last time he led the league in carries, he got hurt. Turner really tired out down the stretch last year, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. The Falcons will also be missing Harvey Dahl from their offensive line. The Falcons drafted Jacquizz Rodgers and will probably resign Jason Snelling so there’s no shortage of talented running backs in case Turner gets hurt or struggles and opens the door for other guys to get carries.
Projection: 250 carries, 1100 rushing yards, 10 catches, 70 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns, 2 fumbles (173 pts, 183 PPR)
20. Jahvid Best (Detroit)
9/3/11: The Lions are likely to sign Chester Taylor now that the Bears have cut him. Unlike Jerome Harrison, Chester Taylor will cut into Best’s goal line and short yardage looks.
8/9/11: The Lions have signed Jerome Harrison and Mike Bell one day after Leshoure’s injury. Neither of those two backs are as big of a threat to Best as Leshoure, who was likely going to steal Best’s goal line carries. Best is still the clear lead back and should get equal to or greater than the 14.5 carries per game he averaged when he was healthy last year. The Harrison and Bell signings affect Maurice Morris’ stock way more than Best’s.
8/8/11: Jahvid Best benefits the most from Mikel Leshoure’s injury, provided he can stay healthy himself. All of a sudden, Best only has Marcus Morris, who currently has a fractured hand, to contend with for carries. Best averaged 14.5 carries per game when he was fully healthy last year and could get more carries per game this year as the Lions defense will be better. However, don’t count on him to play a full 16 game season.
Jahvid Best averaged a mere 3.2 yards per carry last year thanks to foot problems, though his fantasy season was saved by 58 catches for 487 yards, especially in PPR leagues. He’s healthy this year so that average will go up, especially since Matt Stafford is healthy at quarterback, something that will help them stretch the field and open up room for Best. He’ll split carries with Mikel Leshoure, but the defense will be better so there will be more carries, and I expect Best to be the lead guy because Leshoure is a rookie coming out of a lockout shortened offseason. Leshoure will get the goal line touches, but Best is still extremely deadly through the air and can score that way as well.
Projection: 210 carries, 840 rushing yards, 60 catches, 520 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (172 pts, 232 PPR)
21. Peyton Hillis (Cleveland)
8/26/11: Peyton Hills and Montario Hardesty each got a series with the first team in Cleveland’s 3rdpreseason game. Hardesty seems to be back and able to play after injuries in his first season and earlier this preseason. The Browns coaching staff wants to keep Hillis fresh after he wore down late last season so Hardesty should see a large minority of the carries on 1st and 2nd downs, possibly even alternating every series with Hillis. The good news for Hillis is that Brandon Jackson, who was signed as a 3rd down back this offseason, is hurt with turf toe, a lingering injury. That means Peyton Hillis would be the 3rd down back. New Head Coach Pat Shurmur says he sees Hillis as a big part of this passing offense next season. Hillis will also remain the goal line back, for obvious reasons.
Peyton Hills averaged a mere 3.9 yards per carry in the 2nd half and with 2010 2nd round pick Montario Hardesty coming back from injury, he’s conceivable we could see his carries go down. The good news is that he’s still a great pass catcher and he’ll still get all the goal line carries, so unless the curse of John Madden strikes down his ACLs, he’s still worth a 2nd round pick this year.
Projection: 210 carries, 900 rushing yards, 48 catches, 370 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns, 5 fumbles (171 pts, 229 PPR)
22. Tim Hightower (Washington)
8/26/11: Roy Helu didn’t see a single first half carry for the Redskins in their 3rd preseason game. Mike Shanahan is obviously not impressed with the rookie 4th round pick. Ryan Torain could still steal some carries from Hightower once he’s healthy, but Mike Shanahan seems to consider Tim Hightower a lead back. He’s done this thing before with random running backs with a lot of success. He won’t score a lot in Washington’s miserable offense, but he’s running well and should get a lot of all purpose yards and give you plenty of catches in PPR.
Hightower rushed for 736 yards and 5 touchdowns on 153 carries last year for Arizona. He’s the most talented running back Arizona has next to Ryan Torain and Torain seems to be made out of toilet paper. He keeps getting hurt. I think he leads Washington in carries, though don’t expect a lot of scoring from him.
Projection: 240 carries, 1030 rushing yards, 40 catches, 330 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns, 5 fumbles (168 pts, 208 PPR)
23. Maurice Jones Drew (Jacksonville)
I am amazed at how high Maurice Jones Drew is getting drafted. He’s not healthy. He’s said it himself. The team is going to be cutting his carries to give some to Rashad Jennings and keep MJD from getting too worn down this season. He also really struggled to find the end zone last year and the Jaguars should struggle as a whole offensively this year. Marcedes Lewis got a big deal and probably won’t give his 100% once again. Mike Sims Walker is gone. After Mike Thomas, they don’t have a single reliable receiver and it’s not like David Garrard is a great quarterback or anything. He’s mediocre and will be looking over his shoulder after the Jaguars just traded up to get Blaine Gabbert with the 10th overall pick.
Projection: 230 carries, 970 rushing yards, 40 catches, 330 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns, 2 fumbles (168 pts, 208 PPR)
24. Mark Ingram (New Orleans)
8/21/11: It’s official. Mark Ingram will be the goal line back in New Orleans.
All rookies will be at a disadvantage compared to previous years’ rookies because of the lockout, but running backs are normally the most “plug and play” for the rookies. The playbook isn’t terrible difficult for them, compared to other positions. However, the Saints also have Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, and Darren Sproles and Sean Payton has a reputation for changing his mind often with running backs.
I like Ingram the most of the 4. He’s more talented than Ivory, less injury prone than Thomas, and can handle more of a load than Darren Sproles. The Saints’ defense should be better this season, which means they will be able to run more. Ingram can pass catch and if he gets the goal line looks in New Orleans’ explosive offense, look out.
Projection: 170 carries, 770 rushing yards, 30 catches, 250 receiving yards, 11 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (162 pts, 192 PPR)
25. Ryan Mathews (San Diego)
Ryan Mathews had 158 carries as a rookie last year despite injury problems that caused him to miss 4 games. In his 2nd season, he should get more carries. Mike Tolbert will still be in the mix, but remember Darren Sproles is gone and the Chargers special teams can’t possibly be as bad as it was last year so won’t be playing from behind as much. As a result, they should run more. Mathews, barring injury, will be the lead guy, though Tolbert will be a factor as well. Durability issues have come up in training camp of late, so this is something to monitor in the preseason, considering we just had a lockout.
Projection: 230 carries, 1040 rushing yards, 25 catches, 200 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns, 5 fumbles (162 pts, 187 PPR)
26. Cedric Benson (Cincinnati)
Say what you want about Benson. He averaged 3.5 yards per carry last year. He’s 28 and coming off back to back 300 carry seasons. He’s on a terrible team. He doesn’t pass catch. He gets arrested every year. He has a history of injury problems. You’d be right. However, the Bengals love him and they have absolutely no one else threatening for his job. He’s also going to be motivated after not getting the contract he wanted last offseason, settling for an incentivized one year deal. You could do a lot worse as an RB3.
Projection: 280 carries, 1060 rushing yards, 20 catches, 150 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns, 5 fumbles (153 pts, 173 PPR)
27. Reggie Bush (Miami)
Bush is expected to start for the Dolphins this season and will be given a chance to be a legitimate feature back. Daniel Thomas is still expected to get the goal line looks, but the rookie has struggled this preseason and will be simply a chance of pace back.
Projection: 200 carries, 840 rushing yards, 50 catches, 420 receiving yards, 5 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (150 pts, 200 PPR)
28. Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)
Lynch has had a disappointing career after being the 11th overall pick in 2007, with 3.9 yards per carry in his career. However, he did have a bad offensive line in Buffalo and Seattle’s line last year wasn’t much better. In the offseason, they added John Moffitt and James Carpenter through the draft, Robert Gallery through free agency, and Tom Cable as an offensive line coach, so this is going to be the best offensive line he’s ever worked with.
He is also the clear lead back. He had 165 carries in 12 games with the Seahawks last year, over 16 games that becomes 220 carries. There’s no more of this Julius Jones/Leon Washington/Justin Forsett committee shit in Seattle like last offseason, which is a very good thing for fantasy football players. Injuries, however, remain an issue for Lynch, who played a full 16 game season last year for the first time in his career.
Projection: 210 carries, 880 rushing yards, 25 catches, 200 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (150 pts, 175 PPR)
29. Ryan Grant (Green Bay)
8/28/11: We’re getting a better feel for how things will shake out at running back for the Packers. Grant got the ball on 3 series and Starks got it on 2 series. It’s looking like a 60-40 split between the 2 running backs on 1st and 2nd downs with 3rd round pick Alex Green coming in on some 3rddowns like Brandon Jackson used to. I’d say 210 carries for Grant, 130 for Starks, and 40 for Green.
8/20/11: James Starks is hurt. He shouldn’t miss any games, but, in his absence, Grant has cemented himself as the lead back. He looks very good in games and also in practice, reportedly. He might not finish the season as the starter, but he’ll start the season as the starter, a very good thing considering how explosive this Packers offense is.
Projection: 210 carries, 920 rushing yards, 20 catches, 150 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns, 3 fumbles (149 pts, 169 PPR)
30. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (New England)
8/23/11: I didn’t have BJGE in my top 100 because the Patriots drafted two running backs early last year. However, it appears BJGE will remain the lead back because of the lockout. The Patriots aren’t ready to trust their rookies. He won’t have as many carries as last season (229, with 135 of those coming in the 2nd half), because they have more running backs capable of carrying the ball, but he should get around 200 carries, including the goal line carries in an explosive offense.
Projection: 200 carries, 840 rushing yards, 10 catches, 70 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns, 1 fumble (149 pts, 159 PPR)
Football Fan Spot 